I Agree it will likely drop to around 1.7 which was last seen in the 1997 season when our payroll was a mere 39.8 Mil.

What Tagee doesn’t understand here is that the mere signing of John Olerud increased attendance from that 1.5M to 1.7M in 97(an Increase of 200K) and the aquisition of Leiter and trade for Piazza mid season led to more than a half a mil increase in attendance) despite winning the same exact number of games as they did in 97! So Much for the you need to win to draw more people to the stands! Up goes the Stars draw no matter what the game results are concept not the wins it was the stars that drew the fans out!!

This is the point lost on the folks here I have been trying to get accross!
A drop in attendance and the financial losses due to that are the result of people not believing in the team before a single game is even played!

If people would take their heads out of the Excel sheet and look at what draws despite wins and losses they would see that it is the STARS who draw the fans to buy season tickets and it is those season tickets that once paid for will drive the amount of times people go to see the team!
No one goes and buys a season ticket package and then says they suck lets skip the game I paid a hefty price to see!

Wins affect day of game sales and the season after they won, Because that HOPE inspires more people to buy those season tickets the following year that they will be forced to eat if they don’t attend! As a result they DO attend no matter what it says in the win column and that attendance pays the bills!

If Wright goes in a trade we will definitly go back to those numbers we had in 77!
1 Mil Attendance that remained that low right up until 1984! Which just happens to be the year after they went and got their first BIG STAR on the roster after the 77 Masacre! They got Kieth Hernandez in 83. Attendance in 83 was 1.1 Mil but with season ticket sales thanks to the arrival and promise of hernandez went up 700+K

Without stars it doesn’t matter how much you win because no one will believe it will last and take it as a fluke!
With Stars they go because they believe the star will entertain them and give them hope they will see a win before a signle game is even played and that translates to season ticket sales that will force people to go regardless of the record because they paid for them and why waste that money!

The problem with your What if is one of them seemingly replaces Wright.

Adam Dunn may very well have spurred more Season Ticket sales meaning we don’t lose as much as 70 Mil.
That extra 20 Mil could then go to paying down the MLB loan and then what would people be saying about those finances?

You simply don’t get the fact that no one wants to see Bruce Campbell play Ironman they want a Star to play the role! They will go if there is STAR but not for some B-List actor!

The same logic applies to baseball!
People don’t want to go see some B-list or D-List SS or 3B, They want to see stars!
Gets them and the Attendance goes up as does the profits! And if the team makes money as opposed to losing it, there are no more financial problems are there?

AS I’VE DETAILED ABOVE, OUR MOST LIKELY 2012 PAYROLL WILL AMOUNT TO 85M GIVE OR TAKE.

LAST YR’S ATTENDANCE OF 2.4M FANNIES I’M PREDICTING DROPS TO APPROXIMATELY 1.7M IN 2012 BASED UPON THE % DROPOFF EXPERIENCED IN 1977 AFTER THE MIDNIGHT MASSACRE SAW THE 1976 SHEA ATTENDANCE OF 1,468,754 WHITTLED DOWN TO 1,066,825 IN 1977 ON IT’S PATH TO 799,328 IN 1979. THE FINAL BLOW DELIVERED BY 1981′sSPLIT SEASON FRANCHISE CELLAR ATTENDANCE OF 704,244 LEADING DIRECTLY TO THE 1982 OWNERSHIP TRANSFER TO DOUBLEDAY & HIS MIDGET 1% PARTNER

DOGS WAG TAILS, TAILS DON’T WAG DOGS

THIS SIMPLISTIC STATEMENT IS RELATIVE ONCE U REALIZE STERLING = DOG
GM POSITION REGARTDLESS OF PERSON OCCUPYING THE CHAIR= THE TAIL!

IN ADDITION THIS ARTICLE IS CONSIDERABLY GENEROUS IN IT’S PAYROLL FORCAST FOR 2012 AS I’LL DEMONSTRATE HERE
:
AS I’VE POINTED OUT MANY TIMES; THIS AUTHOR’S ASSUMPTION OF A 100M PAYROLL IN FLUSHING FOR 2012 IS TOO OPTIMISTIC/GENEROUS AS IT’S OBVIOUS THE MOST LIKELY REAL PAYROLL WILL COME IN @ LESS THAN 85M SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER.

PRESENTLY IT SITS AROUND LOW 70 MILLIONS EVEN AFTER ALDERSON’S ADDITIONS TO THE BULLPEN, TOTALLING APPROX 10M IN NEW SIGNINGS. THE SIMPLE MATH IS THIS: 61-62M REPRESENTS THE TOTAL COMMITMENT LEFT FROM THE 2011 ROSTER GUARANTEED IN ’12:
SANTANA 24M
BAY 16M
WRIGHT 15M
DICKEY 4.25M
CARRASCO 1.2M
BYRDAK 1.0M

|TOTAL 61.45M|

THE 4 ADDITIONS ACQUIRED AS EITHER F/A OR IN PAGAN TRADE:

FRANCISCO 6M
RAUCH 3.5M
TORRES ARBI OFF OF 2.2M PAID IN 2011
RAMIREZ ARBI OFF OF 1.65M

IN ADDITION THE ARBITRATION HEARING FOR PELFREY COMING OFF OF A 2011 PRE-ARBI NERGOTIATED 3.95M WITH SCOTT BORAS REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. THE ONLY CERTAIN PAYROLL COMMITMENTS FOR 2012 AMOUNTS TO 70.95M REPRESENTING PRIOR COMMITTED GUARANTEES+ NEWLY INKED ’12 COMMITMENTS WHILE THE UNKNOWNS ARE THE 3 REMAINING ARBITRATION HEARINGS FOR PLAYERS(PELFREY,TORRES,RAMIREZ) COMING OFF OF A COMBINED 7.8M IN SALARIES PAID IN 2011.

IT SHOULD BE A GIVEN THAT THE CLUB LOOSES EACH OF THESE HEARINGS WHILE IT WOULD TAKE AWARDS TOTALING 100% INCREASES FOR THE PAYROLL TO BARELY EXCEED 85M(86.5M) & AN UNPRECEDENTED 3 AWARDS OF OVER 400% TO THREATEN THE 100M THRESHOLD PRESUMED BY THIS ARTICLE.

AS I’VE ALWAYS MAINTAINED BASED UPON COMMITMENTS MADE & REASONABLE ASSUMPTIONS ON UNKNOWNS REYES CERTAINLY COULD HAVE BEEBN RETAINED WITHOUT BREAKING ANY PUBLICIZED BARRIERS

MOST LIKELY OF THE 25 PLAYERS CHOSEN TO FORM THE ACTIVE ROSTER IN APRIL ONLY 9 WILL EARN IN EXCESS OF THE 480,000 MINIMUM SET BY THE MOST CURRENT CBA. SUDDENLY WE’VE BEEN TRANSFORMED INTO PITTSBURGH OR KANSAS CITY DESPITE A RELATIVELY NEW VENUE(CITIFIELD)

I actually got that fact from a study done at Princeton that was done on the average career length in the MLB.

They found that kids who make it to the MLB at an early age (21) tended to have longer career than guys who came up at 24 or 25 (which was the average age for all rookies coming into the MLB)
The reasoning was they were good players and came up quick, maintained that play early and as a result managed to maintain their career longer because of that early success.

http://paa2006.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=61286

Hey Metsie, and in case anyone ever asks you if you can prove what you just said you can always show them this.

Over a ten year period (1986-1995) of All Star games the number of players that was on the All-Star roster that were 21 or younger in the year they made their MLB debut is 104. Of that only 33 (31.73%) were 34 or younger the last season of their career.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&key=0ApxE2V-jZhJHdGVhQ1g4djluVFBKOFdEZG1GdGlZRXc&hl=en_US&gid=3

Brian Schneider, Omir Santos, Robinson Cancel, Sandy Alomar Jr., Mike DeFelice, Corey Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, GMJ, Ben Johnson, David Newhan, Trot Nixon, Brian Lawrence, Tim Redding, Jorge Sosa, Ryota Igarashi.

Every team is going to have a list like that. Especially if your counting someone like Trot Nixon, who only appered in 11 games!!!

You’re the worst, most sickening second guessing LOSER I’ve ever seen in my life. And extremely unfair to boot. Your posts are the equivalent of someone scratching their nails down a chalkboard. He picks on the GMs that led some of the most exciting seasons Mets fans have ever had and expects those teams to be created at no cost. You could not be more unfair.

All the guys he selectively singles out (of course leaving out the good moves Minaya and Phillips made to make their teams competitive in the first place!!!) had no major impact on the success or failures of their team and even if they did this god damd idiot second guesser would simply pick another player to appease his silly, demented, pathological ideology.

Really, what a loser this guy has to be to go back NOW and to be second guessing the history of an organization every single day! What the hell is the matter with this guy?

THE METS HAD THEIR CHANCES AND THEY BLEW IT ON THE FIELD. Once you come to peace with that you can move on from this unbelievable, unprecedented, selective second guessing we have to put up with every day. You would think acquiring Moises Alou derailed this team for the next century according to this guy. And this is AFTER the Mets fell short from reaching the post season….naturally

Put Valdez (who I think is a decent backup MI), Martinez, Orr and whoever else with Pelfrey, Thole, Gee ect it would be the same thing as here.

If you have 6-8 high end talents those guys are fine. If you have 1 or 2 their not.

Even the Phillies last year, who won over 100 games, had Orr, Gload, Schneider, sardinha, M Martinez, and Valdez on their team.

Instead we parked 71 M on the DL or useless list and got worse not just in the present but going forward as well. but hey at least it was entertaining watching Thole running to the backstop twice an inning, Pelfrey mistaking his glove for a Shake Shack burger, Bay providing a renewable source of clean air conditioning and NL hitters turning around 100 MPH heaters like they were taking BP.

And to think there was no room for truly talented players like Brian Schneider, Omir Santos, Robinson Cancel, Sandy Alomar Jr., Mike DeFelice, Corey Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, GMJ, Ben Johnson, David Newhan, Trot Nixon, Brian Lawrence, Tim Redding, Jorge Sosa, Ryota Igarashi………………………………………..

Hard to believe, hard to believe.

was not necessarily the “wrong” thing either!

If harvey and Familia are ready next year and pitch well how do they get the Ws they deserve if we don’t score runs?

And Batting title aside Reyes was our leading run scorer!

Is Tejada going to make up for the offensive loss? He might give you the same defense but then again maybe not!

If we are two years away from competition then signing Reyes for 5 or 6 years means you will have an allstar behind the guys you exepect to come up and make you competitive!

If your thinking LONG term plan signing Reyes would be a look at who will be helping these guys who you think will make us competitive and for 3 or 4 years of thier MLB career!

By then you could trade Reyes for more prospects if you needed them and save some money.
But now your just getting 2 2nd rounders at best who will not be ready for 4 or 5 years wasting 3 years of harvey and Familia who everyone thinks is going to change things here!

You guys look at Reyes from a short term next year only POV.
And to get away with it you PRESUME Reyes only has two more years in him at 29!
Well History says that isn’t true!
Henderson played well into his 40s!
And most guys who come into the league at 21 and make the all star team have long and productive careers! No Hamstring has ever ended a players career!

but wouldn’t it be better to pad his stats, by putting him in a better position to succeed?

so it could play out that they give him a small leash (a month?) as an everyday guy, and if he remains useless agianst RH pitching, then they pull the plug. With, of course, some select days off along the way!

does not have to be a hard, announced platoon. Just give him a lot of days off, and always vs. RHP!

Did something new come to light where the team actually HAS money now and SA refuses to spend it?

Come on Maniac, you know better, I know you do.