19
2011
The First Cut Is The Deepest
An article by 
Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal writes today, that while the Mets have operated like a typical big-market team for years, their payroll is shrinking to a degree that is almost unprecedented within the industry, at least in this millennium.
General manager Sandy Alderson said recently that he expects the payroll for 2012 to come in at around $100 million and could even be slightly less than that. A $100 million payroll would represent a $43 million cut from the Mets’ Opening Day payroll in 2011. Since 2000, only two other teams have cut payroll by a higher amount from one year to the next, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, an online clearinghouse for player-salary data.
Between 2003 and 2004, the Texas Rangers lowered their payroll from $103 million to $55 million, a $48 million cut. And between 2005 and 2006, the Florida Marlins slashed their payroll from $60 million to $15 million, a $45 million decrease.
Of course in 2004 the Texas Rangers traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees which explains most of their reduction, plus they may have already known they were spiraling toward bankruptcy. The Marlins were going through one of their usual boom or busts transitional seasons and was in complete tear-down and rebuild mode.
You could argue that the Mets might be confronting both of those issues right now.
Actually, Costa used a Mets payroll figure of $100 million to determine the Mets have cut the third most payroll. But if the Mets come in at $94 million or lower, they will have shed the most payroll from one season to another than any MLB team ever. There’s a better than 50% possibility that could happen.
Costa also adds that while the Mets will still likely rank among the top half of all teams in player salaries in 2012, such a significant payroll reduction doesn’t bode well for them.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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LOL, we needed Costas to tell us ‘such a significant payroll reduction doesn’t bode well for them’.
I’m turning my thoughts now to how much lower it’s likely to be in 2013.
Sell the team… then, memo to new owner/s for first order of business: get rid of this GM and his goons… find a GM to wants to win!!!!!!!!!!!
ALEX, PLEASE GROW UP & LEARN THE SIMPLE NATURAL ORDER OF THINGS…
DOGS WAG TAILS, TAILS DON’T WAG DOGS
THIS SIMPLISTIC STATEMENT IS RELATIVE ONCE U REALIZE STERLING = DOG
GM POSITION REGARTDLESS OF PERSON OCCUPYING THE CHAIR= THE TAIL!
IN ADDITION THIS ARTICLE IS CONSIDERABLY GENEROUS IN IT’S PAYROLL FORCAST FOR 2012 AS I’LL DEMONSTRATE HERE
:
AS I’VE POINTED OUT MANY TIMES; THIS AUTHOR’S ASSUMPTION OF A 100M PAYROLL IN FLUSHING FOR 2012 IS TOO OPTIMISTIC/GENEROUS AS IT’S OBVIOUS THE MOST LIKELY REAL PAYROLL WILL COME IN @ LESS THAN 85M SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER.
PRESENTLY IT SITS AROUND LOW 70 MILLIONS EVEN AFTER ALDERSON’S ADDITIONS TO THE BULLPEN, TOTALLING APPROX 10M IN NEW SIGNINGS. THE SIMPLE MATH IS THIS: 61-62M REPRESENTS THE TOTAL COMMITMENT LEFT FROM THE 2011 ROSTER GUARANTEED IN ’12:
SANTANA 24M
BAY 16M
WRIGHT 15M
DICKEY 4.25M
CARRASCO 1.2M
BYRDAK 1.0M
|TOTAL 61.45M|
THE 4 ADDITIONS ACQUIRED AS EITHER F/A OR IN PAGAN TRADE:
FRANCISCO 6M
RAUCH 3.5M
TORRES ARBI OFF OF 2.2M PAID IN 2011
RAMIREZ ARBI OFF OF 1.65M
IN ADDITION THE ARBITRATION HEARING FOR PELFREY COMING OFF OF A 2011 PRE-ARBI NERGOTIATED 3.95M WITH SCOTT BORAS REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. THE ONLY CERTAIN PAYROLL COMMITMENTS FOR 2012 AMOUNTS TO 70.95M REPRESENTING PRIOR COMMITTED GUARANTEES+ NEWLY INKED ’12 COMMITMENTS WHILE THE UNKNOWNS ARE THE 3 REMAINING ARBITRATION HEARINGS FOR PLAYERS(PELFREY,TORRES,RAMIREZ) COMING OFF OF A COMBINED 7.8M IN SALARIES PAID IN 2011.
IT SHOULD BE A GIVEN THAT THE CLUB LOOSES EACH OF THESE HEARINGS WHILE IT WOULD TAKE AWARDS TOTALING 100% INCREASES FOR THE PAYROLL TO BARELY EXCEED 85M(86.5M) & AN UNPRECEDENTED 3 AWARDS OF OVER 400% TO THREATEN THE 100M THRESHOLD PRESUMED BY THIS ARTICLE.
AS I’VE ALWAYS MAINTAINED BASED UPON COMMITMENTS MADE & REASONABLE ASSUMPTIONS ON UNKNOWNS REYES CERTAINLY COULD HAVE BEEBN RETAINED WITHOUT BREAKING ANY PUBLICIZED BARRIERS
MOST LIKELY OF THE 25 PLAYERS CHOSEN TO FORM THE ACTIVE ROSTER IN APRIL ONLY 9 WILL EARN IN EXCESS OF THE 480,000 MINIMUM SET BY THE MOST CURRENT CBA. SUDDENLY WE’VE BEEN TRANSFORMED INTO PITTSBURGH OR KANSAS CITY DESPITE A RELATIVELY NEW VENUE(CITIFIELD)
Here is the problem and I’ll use your lower number just to make the point.
Payroll was 140 Mil and we lost 70 Mil!
We would need to cut 70 Mil just to turn a profit if attendance remains the same! (doubtful!)
So at 95 Mil lets subtract that from 140 Mil and we get a reduction of 46 Mil
70 Mil minus 46 comes to 24 Mil in losses next year!
And MORE if the attendance sinks lower than last year!
If it does go lower and lets say conservatively they lose 30 Mil who do they cut next? Wright at 15 Mil? They still have to cut 15 Mil more to turn a profit and again only if attendance doesn’t go down even further after cutting Wright!
Payroll would be 79 Mil then with Sanatana and Bay the only remaining cuts left!
And if attendance goes down even futher after one of them are cut at best they break even with a 64 or 54 Mil Payroll!
Cutting salary is not the answer to their financial problems! It might be good for getting loans but the only way to fix the finances is to get fans into the seats!
and the only way to do that is to get someone on the roster they want to see!
They way they did when they went after Beltran and Martinez in 2005!
Those two signings increased attendance by 700K despite not being in the playoff competition! Despite not winning 90 games!
It would work again if the FO would take his head out of his ass and make a team someone wanted to see not a build a roster of guys that wasn’t wanted by anyone else which is why they are cheap in the first place!
It could easily go the other way too. Let’s say the Mets didn’t have Ike Davis and went out and got Adam Dunn last year. How much more disgusted would Met Fans be then they are right now?
What if we didn’t have Wright at 3B and signed Chone Figgins?
Despite all the evidence to the contrary some people continue to insist that bringing in the “sure thing” is the antidote to the problems we’re experiencing right now when the reality is bringing in the “sure thing” is what has caused the problems.
The constant cycle of big expectations followed by big disappointment is what has turned people off.
If the Wilpon would ever just concentrate on putting out a quality product while taking not one single thing away from subsequent teams and concentrating their efforts on acquiring the highest talent possible culled from every single source including trading for other teams minor leaguers, IFA’s, 1st and 2nd round talent (regardless of cost), elite prospect development and the biggest and best scouting dept in the Majors everything else would fall into place.
Then you can do both. Bring in the big name, while continuing to bring in the high end talent that won’t be ready for 4-5 years.
The fact is all those things were sacrificed here for 20 years at the alter of the quick fix con job and now that we can’t outspend the rest of league in order to be mediocre we’re hosed.
There are an extremely rare few MLB free agents who play their best ball for their 2nd team and a whole team of fat cats can win it all about once every 20 years and all of them crash within a couple of years.
keep ignoring facts and keep on writing your novellas about how bad things might have been if if if……. The only fact is that the first yar of your lord sandy’s reign was a failure, financially and on the o love to overpay for a crappy productfield. Year 2 will be a bigger disaster financially for sure, as despiteyour novels, nobody is buying season tickets. (except you of course ) The play on the field will also likely further suffer as the players know no matter how they perform the sell sell sell gang will ruin the second half lf again. I’m sure your lord appreciates your novellas but the rest of the world is sick of the baloney from you lord sandy and his masters freddy/buddy/jeffy and of course uncle moron jeffy the fake proffissional ball player.
Well if your lord and savoir Mullah Omar had provided even one average Major League catcher, at least one all around complete OFer, a couple of competent arms for the pen and at the very least, one #2 starting pitcher we may very well have competed.
Instead we parked 71 M on the DL or useless list and got worse not just in the present but going forward as well. but hey at least it was entertaining watching Thole running to the backstop twice an inning, Pelfrey mistaking his glove for a Shake Shack burger, Bay providing a renewable source of clean air conditioning and NL hitters turning around 100 MPH heaters like they were taking BP.
And to think there was no room for truly talented players like Brian Schneider, Omir Santos, Robinson Cancel, Sandy Alomar Jr., Mike DeFelice, Corey Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, GMJ, Ben Johnson, David Newhan, Trot Nixon, Brian Lawrence, Tim Redding, Jorge Sosa, Ryota Igarashi………………………………………..
Hard to believe, hard to believe.
Every team, every GM has those type of players. Like last year we had, Paulino, Batista, Harris, Hairston, Hu, and Emaus – It doesn’t mean anything if your team has those players because every team does.
Even the Phillies last year, who won over 100 games, had Orr, Gload, Schneider, sardinha, M Martinez, and Valdez on their team.
But those that team had the farm to go out and get Halliday, Oswalt, Pence and started out by developing Hamels, Rollins, Howard, Utley, Victorino and Ruiz.
Put Valdez (who I think is a decent backup MI), Martinez, Orr and whoever else with Pelfrey, Thole, Gee ect it would be the same thing as here.
If you have 6-8 high end talents those guys are fine. If you have 1 or 2 their not.
The point is that all teams have players like you listed – It’s not just the Mets. And your using about a 5 year span, so almost every team is going to have a list like:
Brian Schneider, Omir Santos, Robinson Cancel, Sandy Alomar Jr., Mike DeFelice, Corey Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, GMJ, Ben Johnson, David Newhan, Trot Nixon, Brian Lawrence, Tim Redding, Jorge Sosa, Ryota Igarashi.
Every team is going to have a list like that. Especially if your counting someone like Trot Nixon, who only appered in 11 games!!!
And how do you know guys in the minors leagues like Nieuwenhuis, Puello, or Lagares, don’t become all around complete OFers? Or Harvey, Famillia, Mejia, don’t become a number 2 starter?
Because the comment from the previous poster was about last year. None of those prospects were close to ready.
t agee why don’t you shut the HELL up with your incessant second guessing and UNFAIR singling out of players that had NOTHING to do with the success or failures of the competitive teams they were playing for. ALL teams have those players.
You’re the worst, most sickening second guessing LOSER I’ve ever seen in my life. And extremely unfair to boot. Your posts are the equivalent of someone scratching their nails down a chalkboard. He picks on the GMs that led some of the most exciting seasons Mets fans have ever had and expects those teams to be created at no cost. You could not be more unfair.
All the guys he selectively singles out (of course leaving out the good moves Minaya and Phillips made to make their teams competitive in the first place!!!) had no major impact on the success or failures of their team and even if they did this god damd idiot second guesser would simply pick another player to appease his silly, demented, pathological ideology.
Really, what a loser this guy has to be to go back NOW and to be second guessing the history of an organization every single day! What the hell is the matter with this guy?
THE METS HAD THEIR CHANCES AND THEY BLEW IT ON THE FIELD. Once you come to peace with that you can move on from this unbelievable, unprecedented, selective second guessing we have to put up with every day. You would think acquiring Moises Alou derailed this team for the next century according to this guy. And this is AFTER the Mets fell short from reaching the post season….naturally
What If? What if we signed Cliff Lee, I mean What if is great to talk about when you want to push unknown and unproven concepts!
The problem with your What if is one of them seemingly replaces Wright.
Adam Dunn may very well have spurred more Season Ticket sales meaning we don’t lose as much as 70 Mil.
That extra 20 Mil could then go to paying down the MLB loan and then what would people be saying about those finances?
You simply don’t get the fact that no one wants to see Bruce Campbell play Ironman they want a Star to play the role! They will go if there is STAR but not for some B-List actor!
The same logic applies to baseball!
People don’t want to go see some B-list or D-List SS or 3B, They want to see stars!
Gets them and the Attendance goes up as does the profits! And if the team makes money as opposed to losing it, there are no more financial problems are there?
METSIE, CONSIDER THIS FACT: THE LOWEST POSSIBLE MLB PAYROLL ALLOWED ACCORDING TO THE TERMS OF THE LATES CBA IS 12M
ARRIVED @ BY MUTIPLYING THE 480,000 MLB MINIMUM WAGE BY THE 25 MINIMUM ACTIVE ROSTER NUMBER OF PLAYERS
AS I’VE DETAILED ABOVE, OUR MOST LIKELY 2012 PAYROLL WILL AMOUNT TO 85M GIVE OR TAKE.
LAST YR’S ATTENDANCE OF 2.4M FANNIES I’M PREDICTING DROPS TO APPROXIMATELY 1.7M IN 2012 BASED UPON THE % DROPOFF EXPERIENCED IN 1977 AFTER THE MIDNIGHT MASSACRE SAW THE 1976 SHEA ATTENDANCE OF 1,468,754 WHITTLED DOWN TO 1,066,825 IN 1977 ON IT’S PATH TO 799,328 IN 1979. THE FINAL BLOW DELIVERED BY 1981′sSPLIT SEASON FRANCHISE CELLAR ATTENDANCE OF 704,244 LEADING DIRECTLY TO THE 1982 OWNERSHIP TRANSFER TO DOUBLEDAY & HIS MIDGET 1% PARTNER
I think your very close if not dead on with your numbers and predictions there 62!
Which means a 15 Mil loss minimum if Attendance remains flat from 2011.
I Agree it will likely drop to around 1.7 which was last seen in the 1997 season when our payroll was a mere 39.8 Mil.
What Tagee doesn’t understand here is that the mere signing of John Olerud increased attendance from that 1.5M to 1.7M in 97(an Increase of 200K) and the aquisition of Leiter and trade for Piazza mid season led to more than a half a mil increase in attendance) despite winning the same exact number of games as they did in 97! So Much for the you need to win to draw more people to the stands! Up goes the Stars draw no matter what the game results are concept not the wins it was the stars that drew the fans out!!
This is the point lost on the folks here I have been trying to get accross!
A drop in attendance and the financial losses due to that are the result of people not believing in the team before a single game is even played!
If people would take their heads out of the Excel sheet and look at what draws despite wins and losses they would see that it is the STARS who draw the fans to buy season tickets and it is those season tickets that once paid for will drive the amount of times people go to see the team!
No one goes and buys a season ticket package and then says they suck lets skip the game I paid a hefty price to see!
Wins affect day of game sales and the season after they won, Because that HOPE inspires more people to buy those season tickets the following year that they will be forced to eat if they don’t attend! As a result they DO attend no matter what it says in the win column and that attendance pays the bills!
If Wright goes in a trade we will definitly go back to those numbers we had in 77!
1 Mil Attendance that remained that low right up until 1984! Which just happens to be the year after they went and got their first BIG STAR on the roster after the 77 Masacre! They got Kieth Hernandez in 83. Attendance in 83 was 1.1 Mil but with season ticket sales thanks to the arrival and promise of hernandez went up 700+K
Without stars it doesn’t matter how much you win because no one will believe it will last and take it as a fluke!
With Stars they go because they believe the star will entertain them and give them hope they will see a win before a signle game is even played and that translates to season ticket sales that will force people to go regardless of the record because they paid for them and why waste that money!
Off topic, but I can’t believe that Cerrone is now perpetuating a clandestine three way deal sending Niese to the Jays for d’Arnuad and then flipping him to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez who will make $4million in 2012. I swear I wish I knew where he gets this stuff.
I just left him a comment asking him that at some point he needs to let this go and just stop this Niese is being traded obsession.
I think he’s lobby for Jon Heyman’s job.
given where the team is overall (roster, financials, prospective window to compete), I think they would be better off with a “can’t miss” (yes, I know there is no such thing) catcher to build around than a SP that is about to get market rate expensive through arbitration.
The problem is, all reports say the Blue Jays are thinking the same thing.
there really is no free lunch!
actually, I have not looked at the jays system, but I was assuming they must have another catcher (either minors of majors) that was making him redundant?
They already have Arencibia catching for the big club, but d’Arnuad supposedly plays a lot better defense and is a more consistent hitter. Arencibia’s main attribute is raw power.
Blue Jays also have AJ Jimenez 2008 9th rnd from HS (overslot deal) Last year in A+ .303 .353 .417, 29 2B, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 11 SB, 2 CS, 44% killed.
I believe Arrencibo is considered a future DH and back up and later 3rd catcher. D’Anaurd had a somewhat down 2009 in his last year in Philly’s system and his first year with Toronto was no better but last year put himself right back up there. .311/.371/.542, 33 2B, 21 HR, 78 RBI 27% CS in AA Eastern League.
Incidentally D’Anaurd was obtained in the sandwich round in 2007 the 37th pick overall and was selected 8 picks after the pick we forfeited for signing Moises Alou.
Here’s the thing. The only person who ever mentioned d’Arnaud and Niese in the same sentence is Matt Cerrone. Since when did he get into the rumor mongering business?
Secondly, Niese and what other players are the Mets giving up for d’Arnaud? There’s no way Blue Jays would do that for Niese. They couldn’t even pull the trigger for Gio Gonzalez. So why Niese?
This is a complete fabrication based on some conversation Cerrone had with a one of his readers who lives in Dallas.
Also, why do I have to keep reading about this everyday on MB as a add-on to a post?
If he believed this to be an absolute legit rumor, why didn’t he ever just post it as such like he does every other rumor in the mill? Why wasn’t there a “Mets Targeting d’Aranuad” post?
I’m not sure when we turned so sour on Cerrone or Metsblog, I think it’s getting a tad unfair to be honest. I don’t know the guy, I go to Metsblog only after I go to MMO to see if anything was missed… but I mean it’s getting to the point where some are pointing a finger at Metsblog as though everything written on MMO is claimed to be the bible?
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/12/blue-jays-like-niese-could-be-great-trade-partner.html
I don’t remember hearing about how Ben Yoel is a rumor monger?
It’s almost like Cerrone is getting killed here merely for having an opinion or thought that based on Niese being avail, Toronto has a young catcher he’d like to see come back. Why is that such a big deal?
I just am not getting why we’re harping on his site for reporting or writing anything. Do people do that to MMO? (I don’t go to others)
Why don’t you do ALL OF US a favor and go to metsblog and stay away from MMO?? they already got a D***** there named patrick, i am sure you and him can team up and be best buddies.
Ben presented his trade as an opinion and offered a hypothetical. Cerrone is harping on this d’Arnaud thing as fact like he’s reporting news. I’m not knocking his opinions, I’m expressing concern over inciting furor in the fan base by passing off speculation and opinion as news and not clarifying it as such. Have you not noticed his three retraction posts this month alone along with the disappearing ones that say page not found?
You mean like here?: http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/12/selig-helped-wilpons-break-the-einhorn-deal.html
Mike, scroll down to the post that reads:
Mets interested in dealing Jon Niese for Seth Smith?
http://sportspyder.com/teams/new-york-mets/sources/10016/news?page=2
As soon as that posted and I read it, I called him out on it and left him a comment that he was being irresponsible and that it was not true. Then my comment disappeared so I blogged it on MMO.
An hour later he killed his post and replaced it with:
Mets not interested in dealing Jon Niese for Seth Smith
Thoughts?
My thoughts are I’m not sure I understand this apparent turf war that is going on. You cannot tell me there aren’t reckless or irresponsible things said on MMO right? Yet I don’t see other site owners (to my knowledge) worrying about what we post, and if they do, who cares?
trs raises a good point in the matter. You wrote a pretty scathing article, and it could be very truthful but you don’t REALLY have evidence outside of possible heresay. Right? Yet, it started a somewhat healthy discussion and we moved on.
In your article Joe you wrote “The Mets are believed to be looking for a young pitcher (like Niese?) and a catching prospect in return.”
I just don’t get why very recently it seems Metsblog is under some judgmental microscope here. That’s all I’m saying. If Cerrone wants to write about a blue jays catcher as a potential give back for Niese, so what?
I don’t want this to be some heated back and forth, if it comes off that way I apologize. My intention is simply wondering why all of a sudden like in the last 2 weeks we seem to have labeled Cerrone the blog devil and seem to worry more about what he writes than what we write?
blog devil? You really are overblowing this. Cerrone considers himself media now, and if he says something I disagree with, much like Andy Martino or Bart Hubbuch I’ll call him out. This is nothing new. I’ve always done this since 2005. And before I knock anyone I always leave them a comment on their site first and fire a warning shot. Why should I change now? Cerrone does a fine job for SNY, but as part of the media he’s open to criticism just like everyone else. People criticize me all the time on many blogs, ask TRS86 or James K.
I’m not implying its just you attacking him. It’s been all over the comments lately. IE the other day Maniac totally diminished MB’s value even though he acted like he just won the lottery when his blog was grabbed by Cerrone… or 68 absolutely smashing cerrone when you interviewed him. He just seems like an easy target specifically here and its way, way more than in the past and I don’t know why? And lately it seems like you’ve been taking out a vendetta against him specifically, and that never seemed like your style to get personal.
All I’m saying is, let MMO be MMO and let MetsBlog be MetsBlog.
Look there’s no plot going on, just bloggers behaving like bloggers and media behaving like media. The two will always clash. Wow, and right on cue Mack’s Mets criticizes me.
Hey, I don’t remember writing a post calling you out? It’s possible… but I can’t remember it.
LoL
Now, comment? Yeah, all the time
Post? Who has time to write a post?
TRS – “Post post, what’s a post?”
Hell, I can’t even comment on my own blog at work… It’s blocked.
Dimmy, why you do this to me for?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heQVL2u4AfQ
that’s where that one started?
Just think of it as a conceptual conversation starter (a “what if” scenario). Since without even the bogus rumors, what would there be to argue about?
Well think at it from a writers POV (which should be easy for you since you ARE a writer!)
Putting your fan aside and think like a writer…
Whats easier to write?
A story where everything is good and all you can write about is the plays where good things happened?
Or a story where everything sucks and you can point to reasons, solutions and changes to fix it?
Cerrone and evey writer in NY LOVES controversy! LOVES troubled franchises!
Gives them an easy job every day because you can write and talk about just about anything!
They LOVE it when a manager gets fired because they can talk about why and who to get,
Love it when a team sucks because they can suggest who to get and who to get rid of!
BAD NEWS has always been GOOD NEWS to the journalist!
It’s why you always hear about murders on the news but never the births!
Happy stories are all told in the last segment of any newsprogram right after the sports and before the weather!
Sometimes even after the weather when everyone has switched off the news and gone back to entertainment to cheer them up from all the bad news!
The reduction would be even worse if it didn’t include 2 pieces of driftwood (castillo and ollie) that weren’t even on the team. Put another way, they could have had the identical team effectively for 18mill less!
still a big drop, but even comparing to the rangers (since how the heck did Fla even get to 15mill?), the 100mill payroll is still a good 40% or more above what the rangers dropped to.
Well thats precisely the point I have been trying to get accross!
Purging the Bad players is the correct thing to do!
I can even accept the Beltran and K-Rod deal if it means keeping a guy like Reyes who does contribute.
We talk about SMART signings but never stop to consider SMART PAYROLL REDUCTION!
I would rather we signed league minimum guy to fill the bullpen and keep a reyes than let him go hoping those pen arms will actually get into a game where they can hold a lead!
Would rather save on the hole filling than on the guys who make the team go!
Spending 20 Mil on one player may seem like a waste but it is no more of a waste than spending it on 5 guys who will not help you win!
If we are NOT going to spend then don’t spend accross the board!
Put in the Kids like the Marlins did when they had their firesale!
ready or not there are quite a few kids down there that people think are not going to amount to much which means promoting them can’t hurt their development or our stock of PROMISING prospects we are counting on in the future.
Put F-Mart in CF and who cares if he doesn’t hit how much worse than Torres can he really be?
Maybe he finally shows he CAN play meaning you salvaged a guy you gave up on!
Play a Nickeas who seems to have no future and no trade value but costs league minimum as opposed to twice as much and/or more like a Pudge or any other name mentioned!
If your giving up on winning in 2012 then there is no point in going after anyone above league minimum to fill a hole unless they are going to change that!
This is the point I have been trying to get accross!
This trying but not really trying and purge of those who DO help make us winners is not solving the financials it is only driving down attendance to the point where we can’t even afford those fillers!
And then our back will be to the wall with no money left to get out of the hole we dug!
But signing Reyes at that price for those years was not necessarily the “right” thing. What we may never know is that if the Mets did have money, would they still have let Reyes go? I think the answer to that is yes. You may say that’s ridiculous that they let him go, I see a guy that when on the field is great but a player that is off the field a lot and has had terrible Septembers when they counted. Does that mean I hated Jose Reyes? Nah… Just did not see him worth the contract that he got. I am sure because I have taken a stand against Jose then it will somehow turn into a David Wright discussion, mostly because those people have no way to argue my points on Reyes.
“But signing Reyes at that price for those years was not necessarily the “right” thing.”
was not necessarily the “wrong” thing either!
If harvey and Familia are ready next year and pitch well how do they get the Ws they deserve if we don’t score runs?
And Batting title aside Reyes was our leading run scorer!
Is Tejada going to make up for the offensive loss? He might give you the same defense but then again maybe not!
If we are two years away from competition then signing Reyes for 5 or 6 years means you will have an allstar behind the guys you exepect to come up and make you competitive!
If your thinking LONG term plan signing Reyes would be a look at who will be helping these guys who you think will make us competitive and for 3 or 4 years of thier MLB career!
By then you could trade Reyes for more prospects if you needed them and save some money.
But now your just getting 2 2nd rounders at best who will not be ready for 4 or 5 years wasting 3 years of harvey and Familia who everyone thinks is going to change things here!
You guys look at Reyes from a short term next year only POV.
And to get away with it you PRESUME Reyes only has two more years in him at 29!
Well History says that isn’t true!
Henderson played well into his 40s!
And most guys who come into the league at 21 and make the all star team have long and productive careers! No Hamstring has ever ended a players career!
“And most guys who come into the league at 21 and make the all star team have long and productive careers!”
Over a ten year period (1986-1995) of All Star games the number of players that was on the All-Star roster that were 21 or younger in the year they made their MLB debut is 104. Of that only 33 (31.73%) were 34 or younger the last season of their career.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&key=0ApxE2V-jZhJHdGVhQ1g4djluVFBKOFdEZG1GdGlZRXc&hl=en_US&gid=3
Thanks MNJ! I will bookmark that one!
I actually got that fact from a study done at Princeton that was done on the average career length in the MLB.
They found that kids who make it to the MLB at an early age (21) tended to have longer career than guys who came up at 24 or 25 (which was the average age for all rookies coming into the MLB)
The reasoning was they were good players and came up quick, maintained that play early and as a result managed to maintain their career longer because of that early success.
http://paa2006.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=61286
I think it just got beyond the point where the Wilpon’s could have gone really low AND gone big with one or two guys. Bay was the last gamble. The last double down. When he busted the die was cast.
Fern can’t play CF. That’s not really a question. He’s outgrown the position and his knees really aren’t up to it either. I’d like to give him every chance and try him in LF in a platoon with Bay but come 25 or 26 he’s probably limited to 1B.
Fmart… kid has arthritis already.
someone has to platoon with Bay. If they weren’t getting a veteran with big splits then might as well five Fern a shot, or Kirk, depending on which (assuming one does, if not, the Loewan guy they picked up? Baxter? Beuller? Anyway, someone!) but someone needs to be platooning with bay at this point.
And if you are doing it, ship them over to RF, especially if they LH guy is used to playing there, since he will be getting most of the ABs.
Just looking at the #s from the last couple of years, i can live with Bay in a platoon. With the right guy, could actually be a productive position!
I don’t see them platooning Bay yet. How do you get a guy to build enough value to save some cash when you jettison him out unless he plays? They just have to hope the new dimensions help him enough to warrant someone wanting anything to do with him.
I think they realize the odds of him rebounding to tradeable are low.
but wouldn’t it be better to pad his stats, by putting him in a better position to succeed?
so it could play out that they give him a small leash (a month?) as an everyday guy, and if he remains useless agianst RH pitching, then they pull the plug. With, of course, some select days off along the way!
does not have to be a hard, announced platoon. Just give him a lot of days off, and always vs. RHP!
The financial situation with ownership is definitely the biggest cause for concern especially with the news on this latest $40M bridge-loan. Until this Picard situation is behind the team and we see how the outcome affects the team it will feel like the sword of Damocles hanging over the team’s virtual head.
It makes a world of difference. without that, they could sell it as a needed regroup/retool (aka rebuild) year where they organized the roster and waited for some reinforcements to build around (though you likely would have seen a bigger play for reyes in that case).
but with all the financial crap going on, no reason to expect it to not keep getting shaved for at least the next year, and no clue when the add ons can start happening!
My latest tweet:
MetsMerized Mets Merized Online
WANTED: Blogger to write about WFAN type, hypothetical, lopsided trades that favor the Mets. Must be unobjective and ready to start today.
follow @WFANtrades
Has Cerrone submitted his resume yet?
again, you can win without a huge payroll.
Sure if you have Albert Pujols or Cliff Lee on the payroll!
Or you have all those Minor leaguers already promoted that will be thise guys once they are no longer exclusive!
And even then you still need that one BIG PAY guy to lead them to the promised land!
Look at all the low payroll teams who have won and you will see there was at least one BIG PAY player there to help them win!
“Look at all the low payroll teams who have won and you will see there was at least one BIG PAY player there to help them win!”
Is anyone saying you can win with an entire team full of players making low salaries by MLB standards? I would expect teams that have won to have at least 1 player that was making what could be considered a significant salary by baseball standards at that time.
and again, 100 million or even 90 million is still plenty for a good team. not if omar is GM, but with a smart GM it is enough.
Step one.
Get the highest possible talent base for your starting 8, bench, SP#4, SP#5 and any 3 spots in the pen.
Step two.
Have one each up and coming high talent prospects at MI, CF, SP, RP in AA or AAA.
Step three. Fill in the pen with non type A relief pitchers.
Step four.
Buy 3 Ace pitchers through FA or trade.
Step 5
Hire cleaning crew to sweep up confetti.
Are you saying Barry Zito was an important part of the 2010 giants?
The Mets cannot make a profit because they cannot raise ticket prices with declining attendance and a non competitive team. Their costs continue to rise as in any business but they have no new streams of income to tap and their debt load continues to increase due to carrying costs. In other words they are bankrupt and have to face reality to sell the team or declare bankruptcy and turn the team over to MLB until it can be sold. I was a Met fan since ’62 through the good and the bad and this is the bad but I will never abandon them just because the Wilpons are jerks.PS: I loved the on line Mets Christmas card.
Another banner offseason for Camp Sandy.
Is the offseason over already Maniac, is tomorrow Opening Day?
Did something new come to light where the team actually HAS money now and SA refuses to spend it?
Come on Maniac, you know better, I know you do.
Maniac, he had a good day… did you forget!?!?