13
2011
Niese Rumors Are Gaining Steam
An article by 
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the trade buzz surrounding starting pitcher Jon Niese is getting louder and that at least 3 or 4 teams are currently interested in acquiring the young southpaw from the Mets.
“If the package is right, the Mets will deal him,” writes Heyman.
The Mets are believed to be looking for a young pitcher (like Niese?) and a catching prospect in return.
If the Mets have a price established for Niese, it means he’s on the block.
This goes beyond the old adage of “nobody should be untouchable”, although it seems David Wright certainly is for now.
Last week, Joel Sherman of the New York Post mentioned the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox as teams that would certainly be in the hunt for Jon Niese.
My question is this:
If you are serious in your assertion that you are working toward building a relevant team in 2014, why would you trade such a promising left-handed starter who will be just 27-years old and entering his prime years by that time?
Niese, 25, would seem to be a Met you’d tab as a keeper at this point, and when teams like the Yankees and Red Sox want in, it should give the front office some pause to ask themselves why?
Among all the starters in the current rotation (Johan, Dickey, Pelfrey, Niese, Gee), what pitchers stands out as a potential building block for 2014?
Are we seriously going along with this plan of putting all our eggs in one basket with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Famila who each have yet to have any success beyond Double-A and in the case of Wheeler, Single-A? Is this really the master plan?
You would think a talented pitcher like Niese, who remains under team control for another four years, would be the last player that would be on the Mets’ trading block.
Right now, Niese is the only young pitcher in the organization who has proved himself to be a quality major league pitcher, while the other three are longshots at best and still have a ways to go before proclaiming either of them as such.
I don’t like the smell of this one bit. If anything, the Mets should be locking Niese up through his arbitration years like they did with David Wright and Jose Reyes what seems like eons ago.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
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| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
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Hey Joe
“If you are serious in your assertion that you are working toward building a relevant team in 2014, why would you trade such a promising left-handed starter who will be just 27-years old and entering his prime years by that time?”
For starters a pitcher is not entering his prime at 27. He’ll be closer to passing his prime than entering it by then. This is why you see most free agents 28, 29, 30 etc. because their teams generally lock them up during their “prime.”
Here’s my thought on Niese. I like Niese a lot, but he is what he is. If you had to project or guess what Niese’s future is, I’d say a 4.00 ERA is a fair assesment, wouldn’t you? I mean he’s not a dominating guy, so how is he getting his ERA below that on average per year? Can he have a season under .400? Absolutely. But if you take last 2 years and tell me the next 3 his average will be under 4.00, I highly doubt that.
You throw in that he’s 25 and a lefty and you have a valuable commodity don’t you? Especially if you think for a second that the Mets young arms are good enough to fill a rotation 3 years from now.
Niese’s value won’t go up with age, it will drop.
The fact the Yanks/Sox are interested doesn’t tell me anything except that he’s a good enough SP to pitch on a very good team. We are not looking at a very good team here.
I think the key to this deal is the catching prospect. They CLEARLY recognize how weak the future behind the dish is, and how are you going to get a legit prospect back there?
You have to give to get. That’s what it comes down to.
I mean realistically you can’t tell me Jon Niese is special. You just can’t. Is he quality? Yes. But
IP HA R HR BB K
331 370 185 34 106 286
Those are not #s you look at and say “lets build around this kid.”
Jon Niese has always reminded me of a better version of Zach Duke. If you can get a prospect with real potential behind the dish for this franchise for Niese then you gotta do it.
I would rather put all of my eggs into the Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, Mejia etc. than worry about who the Mets catcher is every year. That alone will make those pitchers better in the future.
Agree! Sell high in a seller’s market on Niese, His OPS+ was only 83 last year. If you could get a decent starting pitcher and a young catcher for him, make the deal. And while you’re at it, Sandy, get rid of Pelfrey, now that you’ve tendered him. The problem is that he’s going to get around $6 million! But you did get rid of Pagan, so let’s dump “Big Pelf” too!
Do you ever disagree with anything this front office does or are you the Alderson spokesperson for MM? I never see you ever post anything unless its in defense of the front office no matter what. So according to you niese will be past his prime at 27? Sorry that sounds a bit extreme to me.
Raylo: By the time he turns 27 he will be working on his 5th season as an MLB pitcher.
So tell me, in a non steroid era over lets say 10 seasons is a pitcher generally better in their last 5 seasons or better in their 1st five? A good starting pitcher is going to be “good” for about 8-9 seasons, elite pitchers go longer at the top of their game. Injuries to a pitcher can end it all much quicker than an injury to a position player.
Are you trying to tell me that pitchers are better at 28, 29, 30, 31 than they are are 24, 25, 26, 27? Then tell me how many guys who are #3 starters at best in their early ages turn out to pitch better than that as they get older?
Thus, by the time Niese turns 27 he will likely have seen his better days. It has nothing to do with who the GM is. It has to do with getting value for something that is valuable today, that is less valuable tomorrow.
Yeah how did that youth theory work out with Lee Halliday and Sabathia pray tell?
So you are saying you’d like the Mets to build their pitching staff on the thought that maybe one day Jon Niese can be the next Roy Halladay? At age 25, Halladay went 19-7 with an ERA under 3.00, then at 26 he won the cy young…
Maybe Gee can be Maddux, and Pelfrey can be Sabathia? Maybe Wright can be Honus Wagner too who knows?
For every out of nowhere types like Halladay at age 25, I can show you tons more players who followed a very predictable career path. You don’t build your team on exceptions to the rule and hope they come true
How many years did it take Halladay to achieve that feat? Just 3 years?
Or did he pitch in the Majors for 4 years before his breakout season?
So Niese could have his breakout year this season and be every bit on the same track as halladay!
So that’s how you wan to do everything? Assume that players like Jon Niese could turn out to be hall of famers, but we just have to wait? That’s a really terrific way to do things.
Now that you mention it… why do the Mets even need a catching prospect? Jorge Posada for example didn’t have his break out year until he was about 28 years old… we have Thole, he could be Jorge. Phew!
Nobody looks at a guy like Jon Niese and focuses on Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, that is just foolish. You’re hoping and praying he becomes that but you have no logical evidence that says he will be.
Metsie what is a more realistic statement
A) Jon Niese’s career path leads me to believe his future path is similar to pitchers like Halladay, Lee, and Sabathia
or
B) Jon Niese’s career path leads me to believe his future path is similar to Zach Duke, Jeff Francis, Paul Maholm
There’s nothing except blind faith and loyalty that would make any sane person choose option A.
Now which is more realistic?
Wheeler has a chance to be like Haladay?
Or Niese who has parralelled Haladay’s first 4 years in the Majors and has proven himself against MLB hitting!
You think the guy in A Ball is capable but the guy who has faced MLB hitters is not!
THATS the rediculousness here not that I think Niese could find his stride and improve to the point he can win 19 games if Sandy doesn’t trade away anymore guys we have that can WIN them!
Isn’t that precisely what you do with guys like Wheeler and Nimmo?
Wheeler is going to be an ALL star and worth one straight up?
Project GREATNESS on them because Sandy brought them here despite how much was given up to get it?
Is Wheeler a sure thing All Star Jessup?
So I’m not doing anything you haven’t done except I at least wait till the make the MLB and don’t start thinking they are worth anything until that happens…You seem to think if Sandy has him in A Ball he is a sure thing Cy Yopung Candidate!
Metsie i’m so happy this sneak doesn’t respond to me anymore and put words in my mouth like he’s doing here to you. Simply putting words in your mouth. It’s his mantra.
First off Raylo I said “He’ll be closer to passing his prime than entering it by then”
A player’s seasons at age 24, 25, 26, 27, 28 are generally better than 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 are they not? Tell me I am wrong.
A player gets less valuable as they get older unless they are a special kind of player. Niese is not Cliff Lee and you don’t hang onto a guy because maybe one day he’ll change as he gets older
Do you know how many pitchers aged 29 and 30 threw enough innings in MLB to qualify for stat leaders? 10. Just 10.
Do you know how many qualified aged 26 or 27? 23. More than double the amount of pitchers.
29-31: 15.
26-28: 36 again more than double.
Why? Pitchers arms grow tried, and as they age, most of them do not age well. It has nothing to do with Sandy Alderson, but has to do with baseball. You can’t just wish things to be true if they aren’t.
As you get older and older, you see more of the older successful pitchers are guys like Halladay, Lee, Beckett, Sabathia, Hudson, Carpenter, Buehrle guys who are clearly a cut above the rest from their generation. Niese isn’t that guy.
Niese is the Jeff Francis type who may stick around, have a nice career, always have a job but he’s nothing special. He’s just a quality big leaguer and if you tell me I can have a legit catching prospect right now for Niese, I take it. I don’t care if Cashen, Omar or Alderson are in charge.
Right, Niese isn’t that guy. But few are. Niese is a gutsy pitcher and we should be hanging on to him. He is capable of giving you 15 wins. Nothing wrong with that. You know what you have with him–why deal him and hope that you get back someone as good?
Steve Trashcan was capable of giving you 15 wins as well. Does not mean that if overwhelmed with a package they should not trade him.
Raylo it’s INSANE!
I mean really – 27 is now approaching passing a prime? What the hell is going on around here?
I have no idea but I only see these preposterous theories on MM and Alderson avenue. These sites are taking it to the max with this new philosophy.
Hey Raylo,
“by the time Niese turns 27 he will likely have seen his better days”
It gets more unbelievable by the day and now borders on science fiction. Forget that any good pitcher can have ups or downs throughout the length of their career. Forget that pitchers in their 30s don’t help their ballclubs win titles or win Cy Youngs.
Everything is now painted with one sickening and STUPID brush. Forget that seasons change and your needs change yearly with the seasons.
Glad someone else other than me noticed this!
so glad others are catching on, sandy nor the mets do no wrong in jesseps book, i know he must go to bed at night in disbelief it has been since 86 since the mets won it all. it cannot be, he must chant, they do everything right. o that is right winning it all does not matter in jeesep book. just playing meaningful games does. lol fraud just like his hero #sandyfail.
jessep, I think you’re slamming that window shut a little too fast. While a pitcher may have seen a decline in some of his raw physical attributes (may lose some zip off his fastball) his late 20s are when things like stamina and selection increase.
So, while a 22 year old may be able to heave a 98 mph fastball more frequently, and 29 year old pitcher should, if his mechanics are sound, throw a 94 mph fastball and mix it with a much better change up and slider/curve/whatever. He’ll also have a better feel of when to throw each one and last an extra 50 innings a year.
I’m not denying that Donal. A pitcher’s career can veer off track with 1 throw. Hitters can be injury prone too but an injury will usually have less impact on their future than on a pitchers.
I’m not saying Jon Niese can’t be a quality pitcher, if he’s a Met I hope he is. If your trying to predict the future when determining the value of your 25 year old pitcher you have to look at
a) where is thie team right now?
b) what can this player do in his best season
c) how likely is it that he keeps it up
It’s a long shot that Jon Niese will be better at 28, 29 than he will be at 26, 27. Sometimes a pitcher gets injured and doesn’t come back for year(s) and that helps shift the balance.
I love this one: “The fact the Yanks/Sox are interested doesn’t tell me anything except that he’s a good enough SP to pitch on a very good team. We are not looking at a very good team here”. You’ve got to be kidding. You invoked the “eyewash” principle. Think about what that means. It is based on the following: 1. This team sucks. 2. Since this team sucks, it will not win any games. 3. Since this team will not win any games, it makes no sense to keep your best players. 4. Since it makes no sense to to keep your best players, trade them away for new players. 5. Since the team sucks, it makes no sense to keep the new players either. 6. Since the team sucks with its existing players or new replacement players, why bother in the first place. 7. In light of all the above, the best course of action is to SELL THE ENTIRE TEAM! SELL THE TEAM PLEASE! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?
The sad fact is that “eyewash” theory will get you nowhere. Reyes is gone because of “eyewash” theory, now the intelligentsia is digging down into the next layer and labeling those players as “eyewash”. The fact is if there is any SP on this staff that the FO should be building around it is Niese. Continue to get rid of the best players and all you are doing is reinforcing the death spiral. But he’s an old man at 27, but how come Dickey’s still winning games?. Oh yeah, you’ll say he throws a floater. Then why don’t we have an entire staff of flutter ball pitchers? Oh well, I guess there is just no hope. Let’s get real. It’s all a bunch of churn for the sake of churn. Just developing a litany of actions taken to tell the fans that we tried but nothing worked. All just a pile of BS. I don’t buy it for a second. Yep, they’ll trade Niese off. We’ll see what we get in exchange. Probably some youngsters who never make it to the Bigs or some washed up soup bone pitcher. Let’s give them a try instead of the actual YOUNG pitcher with demonstrated talent that we already have, Time will tell where we’re headed with the “eyewash” theory. Personally, I think we’re headed to the cellar with it. It’s not rebuilding, its carefully orchestrated destruction. We have a long way to go to hit bottom and haven’t seen nuthin’ yet. This only gets better by the day.
Applause!
The Eye Wash Theory is nothing more than Quitters Creedo…
We can’t win with him then get rid of them…
At some point you can’t win with ANYONE so what is the point of even having a team?
Metsie, Exactly! Why can’t the apologists understand that? Reyes was too good for this team. Now Niese is too good for this team. Wright certainly is too good for this team. Davis is too good for this team. Duda is too good for this team. Is Tejada too good for this team? Certainly, the answer is yes. Is Murphy too good for this team? I guess anything is possible and so probably yes. Is Bay too good for this team? Maybe not. but his salary certainly is, so yes. Is Thole too good for this team? Probably not, he’s probably close to just right. So let’s set Thole as the standard of what we want. That is a pedestrian, moderate skill player with low salary. Let’s stock the team with all Thole level players and then what do you have? You have a team that sits in the cellar with no chance of getting out. That is the logical end result of what Jessep is espousing by citing the “eyewash” theory for manning the team. Take it to its logical conclusion and the best course of action is to either sell the team or else disband the franchise and retire from the league entirely. Let’s have only one team in NYC, because it’s too small a market for both teams to exist. The small market Mets are a failure and need to be disbanded. Just ask Jessep and his demented logic.
“Let’s stock the team with all Thole level players and then what do you have?”
The Pirates! LOL
I have come to the conclusion that the apologists are mostly guys who think Moneyball is the greatest team building system of all time!
And they seem to think that having players on baseball america’s prospect list is better than having players on the MLB Roster!
This idea that Young and Cheap is the way to go has never worked in the MLB.
It’s going to be painful for us but in time we will witness the downfall of this folly and all these apologizing rats will scurry away to some Moneyballing Safe Haven never to be seen again in Met Land!
Think of this like Cjhicken Pox, You go through it it sucks it’s uncomfortable but eventualy it goes away and you are immune from infection for the rest of your life!
SO I’m of the mindset now to “GIVE THEM ENOUGH ROPE” and let them Hang themselves!
Cause once we go through it, they won’t be able to suggest it ever again!
“This idea that Young and Cheap is the way to go has never worked in the MLB.”
What? I guess it depends on your definition of “cheap”, nobody here is saying the Mets should operte on a 30mil payroll but I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume a 90-100 ish mil payroll is cheap?
I don’t want the Mets to be the A’s, Rays, etc. So I don’t understand why you get to tell me (or others) what they want when they clearly say what they want?
You keep saying such things when context is not present but the second a player or move is discussed your tune quickly changes!
In any discussion of Player X, if he makes more than 4 Mil you cite how much he costs and if he makes less than that or is considered as a trade chip (like Niese) his Age is used instead!
The guy is 24 and under contract for the next 4 Years and your already talking about getting rid of him because by the time he is a free agent he will be 27!
And in your warped mind will be past his prime despite the fact that most of the best pitchers in the game today are older than 27!
You say your fine with spending 100 Mil on Payroll yet you only support spending that much in 2-4 Mil chunks on players who arenb’t even HALF as good as Niese who makes league Minimum and is only 24!
But you would trade him in a heartbeat!
Because he’s just Eyewash isn’t he?
Joe D, i like niese a lot, but you at one point have to wonder when he’ll turn the corner, 2 years straight he’s either hurt or tired towards the end of the season, plus, he hasn’t been consistant as one would like. he showed flashes to be great, but so did pelfrey.. if other teams are HIGH on him and are willing to trade prospects for him, go for it, might as well since our 2012 season is already a wash.. you have to put in consideration the GM we have, he’s trading or getting rid of anything omar build to have it his own.. don’t be surprised to see a completely alderson make team by 2014-2015…
Two years straight? He’s only pitched two years. He has 62 starts in his career.
I think that it is very wise to feel around for guys like Niese AND Davis. That does not mean they should or will trade them. Sandy sees the pitching market and knows that Niese will have lots of value… if someone panics then good bye Niese. Same for Ike and most know I LOVE Ike. But if a team like the Cards wants to unload all their resources into Davis being Pujols’ replacement then for the current Mets team it has to be considered.
then when does it end? You trade the young building blocks of your team for even younger building blocks that may or may not live up to promise. It’s a TERRIBLE way to do business.
It will never end then. There will never be a nucleus and anybody can go at anytime regardless of their age. Now the talk of building for the future is another lie by Alderson because if you’re gonna trade the guys that are part of that future – like Billy Beane is doing then your team will never have an identity. That’s of course that the only way you don’t trade any of your young guys is the bulk of your roster is considered untouchable because they’re all home grown stars – which is a fantasy.
I can’t buy into this horrible, horrible philosophy one bit. Fans will never become attached to a player because he can be traded at any time and your team will never ever have an identity. It’s not smart at all.
You go into the offseason looking to improve a club roster that you want to go to war with. Of course if anybody taps you on the shoulder and says “hey i know you’re not looking to deal so and so but…” Of course you can’t prepare for that NOR should you but that’s life. But to do what Sandy is doing is downright mind boggling and smells more and more like maybe he is trying to get rid Omar era guys. Terrible times for this franchise.
It should be a 1 time deal, as a result of the immediate financial crisis. Essentially, buying a little time.
By the time the next group is getting established (the 2014 concept) either the Wilpons would have resolved their financial problems (unliekly) or a new owner will be in place (much more likely). In either scenario, they should be able to start locking up the “new core”
Like it or not, the decision seems to have been made that they don’t have the resources (talent on hand or Money to go buy what is missing) to be a serious playoff contender team in 2012, so they might as well refocus to be ready for the next window.
also quite possible that they are doing the classic clean up the payroll shuffle to get a team ready to sell. much more appealing to have a low payroll and a lot of interesting young guys on the way up, than a high payroll locked in on a team that is past its prime.
You’re relying on a lot of intangibles that have yet to occur and/or who knows who will be owning the Mets years from now. I’m not worried about that and Ike Davis and Jon Niese have nothing to do with the payroll problems.
Looking to move them is downright gutting the team for no other purpose than to refill it with your own guys that you will move anyway if this is the way they’re gonna work. That’s what Beane is doing. Look up from your bookeeper’s visor once in awhile and try thinking about baseball. If a team asks u first about those guys that’s one thing, but looking to move them? And in the Mets current state? Smells fishy.
Again, I’m well aware of the financial situation so no need to remind me.
Neise I agree with. But Davis to me is a much harder sell.
I think some of your early points are valid Alex on reasons they might be considering trading him. While I feel none of the returning players are untouchable if they do trade Niese I hope it’s a trade that when I look at it I can agree with.
At this point in time Joe, it doesn’t hurt to listen. If you can tell me, that we can garner a top flight catching prospect, and another arm, righty or lefty that can be the eqiuvalent of Niese in 2 to 3 years, than, by all means investigate it. For everyone who thinks 27 is ‘past or exiting’ your prime as a pitcher, I say hogwash. LH starters are slower to develop…Niese is a young lefty who is learning his craft, building arm strength, and will probably just be entering his prime at age 27…. In my estimation, as I said, listening doesn t hurt. I wish the Mets would have listened on Pelfrey after 10′… They may have incurred my wrath, and everyone elses’, but maybe we wouldn’t be wondering what occured with him in 11′. I prefer they keep Niese as a rotation stalwart for the young pitchers in ’13, but it doesn’t hurt to listen…right?
Mike:
Lefty handed starters age 28 and older in MLB in 2011 who pitched 162 IP+: 12
Lee, Wilson, CC, Wandy, Buehrle, Maholm, Wolf, Saunders, Lilly, Vargas, Capuano, Francis
You know how many are aged 20-27? 12 as well.
Kershaw, Hamels, Romero, Gio, Bumgarner, Harrison, Lester, Price, Jaime Garcia, Lannan, Holland, Danks
Now you can HOPE Niese will be Cliff Lee, Wilson, Sabathia or Buerhle as he gets older, but I’d like to be a tad more realistic and assume if he does have a career as he gets older, he’ll be more like the other guys. And the other guys like Wolf, Saunders, Lilly etc bounce around, they aren’t guys you hold onto if a good deal comes along
Lots of “if”. Let me know when something actually happens.
Hey Joe,
So 27 year’s old is passing one’s prime? You can’t make this garbage up and that’s exactly what it is – agenda driven GARBAGE and not an honest baseball opinion of one’s own. People only say ridiculous things like “27 is closer to passing prime” is just mind boggling to say the least and is why I’m enraged at the state of silly affairs engulfing this franchise now.
Now the Met are concerned about “selling high” on a seller’s market because of young, developing pitcher’s stupid OPS+. The fan base who buy into this garbage is getting dumber, and dumber, and dumber and losing site of what this is all about and that’s keeping your best young players along with some veterans in order to build for the future and compete in New York City.
But this is what the “new” fan base deserves. Billy Beane just traded a young STUD in his prime ( I hope 24 or 25 classifies as prime now since 27 is now considered by some misanthropes as approaching past their prime” unbelievable.
I heard someone on MLBNetwork say Cahill was traded for young prospect and my jaw dropped. What the HELL do you think Cahill is? He’s young, established and only a few years removed from being a prospect and is probably YOUNGER than some prospects.
The only thing worse than being a Mets fan in New York where the Yankees reside is being a baseball fan in Oakland where winning is certainly no priority. Not in the least bit.
I like Neise a lot, and have been sitting up front on the bandwagon (if not driving!) most ofthe time. I know there are different opinions on exactly how good he will be, but I think he is primed to take a big step forward in the next 1-2 years.
So, I would be looking to lock him up as a building block for the future (to add the young guys to as they are ready, not replace thm).
The only valid BB reason to me to trade him is if they can get some team to “overpay” and fill multiple holes (such as noting they need a real catcher back). But, this again smells of having made the decision that the next 2 years are set aside for rebuilding (1 step back to tack 2 forward?), and that the guys brought in will be adding more value by 2014 than Neise.
the only other reason to do it is if you know you won’t be able to afford him in the next couple years as he starts hitting arb.
Or Isuppose the mets could feel he is going to be a bust and they are selling high?
In any case, if they do make a deal, it damned well better be bringing back a “how the hell did they get that much back” package.
Colorado or the BlueJays…if the Mets trade him to the Yankees for Cervelli I’m swtiching teams….
Just another guy who didn;’t suck who will get sent away so they can go and buy some 1 year bandaid who DOES suck!
If I’m a met player and want to stay I have to start thinking about increasing my failure quotient otherwise if I show even the glimmer of success I will get traded away!
Great line, but sadly true.
AdamRubinESPNAdam Rubin
Mets are making Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez available by phone on Wednesday, so look for comments from new #Mets tomorrow.
Side note- Acc. to Sherman, the Mets have signed buddah reliever Jonathan Albaladejo, He pitched in Japan last season. It seems like Sandy is trying to create a stockpile in the bullpen that he can trade from.
That has been retracted
Sorry- Joel Sherman retraction- Sandy tried to sign Albaladejo but Jonathan signed with the D’Backs. Mets & D’Backs last 2 bidders for him.
And yet, no one learns.
Acc. to Rubin, Sandy expects the minority share sales to be completed in Jan. Sandy also said today that the trade talks for Niese have not been significant and that Mike Nickeas is very likely going to be the back-up C.
If you get the right package you trade him. One MLB ready prospect for two prospects increases your odds for success. I like Neise but this is not a Matt Moore situation.
A 3.75 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in the minors doesn’t make you eyeballs pop out. Not a good sign. His injury history is a concern as well. So far at the MLB level he has a 4.39 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
For the right package…move him.
Another bad Alderson move if he trades Jon Niese. Niese will win you 15-18 games. He’s a young lefty with promise, why would you trade someone like him? You don’t get rid of young pitchers this. This ridiculous move if it happens shows why Sandy needed someone to help him get a job as a general manager.
“Niese will win you 15-18 games”
when? He went 11-11 last year, and 9 wins the year before? What exactly shows you he is a 15-18 game winner other than you just hoping it’s true?
He’s gone 173 innings as a career high so he has yet to prove he can even go 200+, He pitched in fewer innings in 2011 than he did in 2010, and had a higher ERA in 2011 than 2010. That’s not a good sign for improvement, or evidence that he can be an 18 game winner.
I’m not saying he’s a bad pitcher. He’s a good pitcher on his best day, but given the circumstances if the Mets can get a younger arm back and a catching prospect as reported you gotta do it. Nobody is saying they need to trade him just to trade him.
I’m sure there was some schlub in Toronto who said the same things in 2001 about Halladay
Jessup in Toronto: “The best this guy has done is 8-7 No way he will ever be a 19 game winner or Cy Young candidate!”
How can you say it’s a bad move when you don’t know what return players are being discussed?
If your near a radio Niese is on WFAN now.
Regarding Niese interview he says the players union sends them an email every week updating them with new items that are banned. Seems there are new items out every week according to Niese.
…not to mention that if the Mets get a solid, experience catcher who knows how to handle their pitching staff like they had in 2010 (Barajas, Blanco) then maybe we’ll have more of a true barometer of what these pitchers can do.
Having awful defensive catchers like last year hurt the pitching staff and Niese was one of those that could have suffered with that. He seems like the type of kid that would benefit immensely working with an experienced catching veteran and if the Mets trade him to a team that has that they will regret it.
Acc. to Rubin, Murph said today that he’s preparing full throttle at second base. Running, hitting, etc. , 100%. I guess he was told by TC or Sandy, right now you’re the incumbent 2B.
Acc. to Martino, he was told by multiple teams asking on Niese that the Mets’ price was very high, too high for their liking. The Rockies aren’t ging to part with blue chip C prospect Wilin Rosario or the Jays Travis D’Arnaud in a package for Niese. It’s harder to come up with a solid, young defensive catcher with HR pop than it is a meh, middle of the rotation lefty with durability issues.
Of course the asking price is high and I am guessing it is tremendous for Davis. This is why I don’t understand why people are critiquing moves that are not even being made.
So in 2014 Harvey will be 26 and Wheeler 25 when they arrive. That sucks because according to Jesse they will only have 2 years as Mets before they begin to go down hill so the Mets will move them just like they would Niese. Now I hate this waiting until 2014 plan even more than I did five minutes ago. So in 2016 we will rebuild again?
Thankfully, this guy has no idea what he’s talking about because if this were true, Alderson should be tarred and feathered, actually make that drawn and quartered.
KMaxx: Okay how about this. Lets make this easy.
If you had to guess (or maybe you feel you know) an average STARTING pitcher in MLB is at his peak performance at what ages?
Give me a 4 year range for giggles please.
By the way in 2014, Harvey will be 25 and Wheeler will be 24. So we’ll just give you a pass on that mistake.
That’s the problem with you types, you’re always trying to use guesses and theories and pass them off as stone cold truths. They’re not. Pitchers reach their prime, plateau and decline based on many different and unpredictable variables that include things like body type, the torque on their pitches, confidence, physical makeup, mental makeup, command, etc. You like everything to fit neatly in a particular range and I’m telling you it’s impossible. Many of the top pitchers in the league right now are past 30 and have not started their decline, you also have many cases of late bloomers, and lefthanders have always developed later than righthanders.
Thats right, in an absolute detail kmaxx. I m sorry Jessup, each pitcher is an individual. You can only use the analysis you have used to try and support your argument. There are no absolutes and blanket stats you can use, pitchers are different, for whatever reason. If Niese is dealt, could he turn into a John Tudor type lefty. Yeah for sure. Pitchers develop and to an analyze how they develop via statistics based on a age analysis is ok. But, in large part they ALL develop differently at their own pace.
Mike, i don’t think this guy even knows who john tudor is, he wasn’t OLD enough, might wanna text him the stats..
of course they are all unique, and you can’t make blanket statements about anything.
It looks though that all Jessep was saying here is that probability says (as in, averages) that most guys have their best years in a certain range. That does not mean that Neise or any other specific guy will also, just that the odds are most guys will.
“It looks though that all Jessep was saying here is that probability says (as in, averages) that most guys have their best years in a certain range”
That’s EXACTLY what I am saying.
It takes a special (key word SPECIAL) kind of pitcher to pitch at a high level through his early 30′s.
It is very, VERY likely that when Jon Niese wakes up at age 28, we will all know who he is as a pitcher. Can he have a good year? Yes. But is it likely that from the age of 25-32 he’s gonna go out there and win you 15+ games every year? Absolutely not.
I can make a darn good case why Jon Niese’s career will be more like Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francis, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm than guys mentioned in this thread like Glavine, Halladay, Sabathia. There’s nothing WRONG with the first 4 guys I mentioned, but if your the Mets right now you should want a legit catching prospect over a future Jeff Francis.
It’s actually MORE likely that Niese would be out of the big leagues by 33 than follow a career path of Halladay, Maddux etc.
you know, at what point you give any met credit?? seriously, you’re ready to claim kimbrel is the best closer in baseball, tulowitzky to be the greatest SS of all time, but any time someone comes up with a positive attitude about a met player who’s young you shut that down just to start a debate.. you’re little charade is getting tiresome, once i knew you were still a kid i understood what you act the way you do.. quite frankly is pathetic how you can call yorself a met fan..
“once i knew you were still a kid i understood what you act the way you do”
I’m older than Jose Reyes.
By the way Kimbrel won Rookie of the Year… so I’m not sure why me saying he was really good was so insulting to you? At the time of that discussion he was ranked #1 among NL Closers for the Award… that was in August I believe?
Tell me right now you wouldn’t have traded KRod for Kimbrel straight up?
Tulo by the way has been Top 10 in MVP voting for the last 3 consecutive seasons. During that time do you know who the only other players to do that are?
There’s only been 3 others. Pujols/Miggy Cabrera and Ryan Howard. Notice any SS’s on that list?
is funny how you only mention the last 3 years for a player, when i talk about jose reyes you don’t wanna bring up what he did last year because you think is a fluke, yet, kimbrel on his first year is already a HOF in your book.. see the double standard here? also, about tulowitzki, imo, he’s overrated as hell.. another coors field product. also, hansley in the same amount of year has better number all across and put in perspective, he plays in a bigger park and has been leadoff hitter, second hitter etc….
“yet, kimbrel on his first year is already a HOF in your book.. see the double standard here?”
No I see you making up things to fit your argument. In August when we discussed Kimbrel he was the best closer in the NL. He was. I don’t see why you’re disputing this. I never said he’s the next Mariano Rivera. At that moment in time he was the best closer in the NL.
You call Tulo a Coors field product ,you make it sound like he’s Vinny Castilla
Tulo @ Coors
786AB–255H–49 Dubs–9Trips–49 HR–176 RBI–.324 AVG–.395 OBP–.597 SLG
Tulo Away from Coors
764AB–216H–44 Dubs–5Trips–44 HR–116 RBI–.283 AVG–.357 OBP–.510 SLG
I thought the Coors Field effect was about HR? RBI proves it helps a lot of his other teammates for sure but does it help him since he’s hit just 5 more HR in Coors than out of Coors? Seems like a weak argument
Any, get me 5 pitchers who are/were good and look at their years up until 27 and then after 27… you will see how WRONG he is..
OK, Dwight Gooden, Barry Zito, Jack McDowell, Matt Morris, Steve Avery.
Now if you look a different situation caused the decline of each of these, however they still declined. I am sure for every one that you come up with that excelled there would be one that did not. That is why it’s baseball. Stats are not the end all be all but they are for sure a tool to be used in making decisions.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml
kmaxx, check out greg maddux’s BEST years, also, if you like i can give you most of the pitchers and you will see how they became MUCH BETTER after the age of 27, so you can show jesseP and shut him up… i don’t knwo why would anyone wanna debate with this guy who is still a kid and don’t know sh** about baseball, just whatever he read on a meaningless book
Again Alex…. you’re using a Hall of Fame player to make a case for Jon Niese. Less than 1% of players will make it to the Hall of Fame. You can’t sit here and use a HOF player to tell me why Jon Niese will be better with age. Jon Niese isn’t Greg Maddux.
beautiful baseball sense. That’s all you need. Whether we agree or not on what type of players we like – in a baseball sense what KMaxx is exhibiting is just pure baseball knowledge without any stats/names, etc. It’s about the game. That guy doesn’t know the meaning of competition, just likes crunching numbers to see what kind of faux scenarios they can create. It’s more theory than substance. Like a lot of people study music theory or even know it but wouldn’t know what to do with an instrument if their life depended on it.
These other idiots go by charts, league averages and all kinds of generalizations that all these new advanced statistical numbers spawn. I’ve watched that show Clubhouse Confidential and I think i’m watching a show about fantasy baseball and all these calculations that have nothing to do with the end result. Just mainly window dressing and more fun with numbers for those who like to indulge. Watching that show has reaffirmed my stance on that crap, not opened my eyes to it
Blah, blah, blah, awwwwwwwww shut-up…
That being said, of course you can’t say that Niese will be past his prime at 28 nor can you say that he will not be. Stats are best used in combination with each other, not by themselves. Just as wins do not tell you the entire story, neither does your eyes or their WHIP. So while age is another factor to look at along with innings pitched and progress it is not a magic precursor to a mythical formula of success.
or you can simply look past stats but only if you understand anything about the game of baseball outside of your world of numbers so why don’t YOU shut!!!! You’re just a kid who learned the game probably by playing fantasy baseball, reading a book, having fun with all your new numbers toys and just nodding your head to whatever the Holy Trinity Front Office says without coming up with any of your own thoughts.
Niese is a promising young man who may need to work with a better receiver, has maybe learned a little more about life, even grown a bit and is more mature about his approach to hitters. He should not be actively being shopped he should be a part of the future
Not to mention he has a nice curve coming from the left hand side, good stuff and has shown some moxy getting out of tough spots in his young career. I was fooled by his disposition at first but the more he develops the more he may show that he has an “Eli Manning” type of approach to his craft and NO WAY would i write this kid off just yet. He’s still developing ..he’s practically still a prospect himself!
Actually, I am a high school varsity basketball coach who has also not only coached football and baseball as a head coach but played all three sports. So awwwwwwwww shut-up. And obviously before you get offended by the awwwwww shut-up part you might know that I am also old enough to be using a quote from a famous rabbit.
you’re just trying to bait with your repeated awwww shut ups..if you want to play that game than i’m in man…
Now after you’re done going down on Sandy you’ll know that not all coaches are good either and it looks like you fall into that category and that’s if you’re telling the truth. I knew lots of terrible coaches that definitely fall into the category of leaning towards that numbers crunching stuff cuz you can’t figure out things on your own. I can just tell by the garbage you spew here you know nothing of how the game of baseball works and you let your numbers dictate your way of thinking so just drop dead okay?
Donal & trs: Musta been another “slip of the keyboard” when you were told to drop dead.
Seriously, the class of people who get so worked up over talking baseball or so obsessed with Jose Reyes that they’d actually wish people physical harm and or death is fascinating. It makes me doubt when people say NY fans are the smartest baseball fans.
It also makes me fully aware that somebody lives a lonely life and doesn’t know that in the real world, baseball is just a game, not a reason to wish death upon people.
classy as ever.
Sniffffle, sniffffllllle, the great Bayonne is offended and is blowing his tough smoke behind his screen again. Perhaps instead you you telling me to drop dead you should say something like you wish I was the one that got ran over instead of Sandy’s father? Wouldn’t that at least be consistent.
Honestly, I think you are just not capable of understanding and using both your eyes and stats. The stats scare you because you have no idea how to interpret them. In other words you are a carpenter who is afraid to use a air gun and instead still relies only on his hammer. Hammer away there Bayonne. I am afraid you will indeed be a dying breed.
Bayonne, my point exactly, how STUPID you must be to actually think a pitcher enterin 27 or a player entering 28 years of age has ALREADY reached its prime?? people get too caught up in what may happened 5 years from now instead of seeing the big pitcure.. you think anyone is thinking in anaheim “ohh my god, in 6 years pujols will be done” noo, because that team WILL WIN a championship. who cares, people who are caught up in this money nonsense.. is pathetic to say the least.. 27 years of age, yeah, let’s trade that guy, he’s on the decline already.. just take a look at cliff lee, sabathia, best years of andy pettite, randy johnson, hell, even tom glavine’s best year and you will see how all of them BECAME BETTER AROUND 27-33 years of age… ugh..
Alex,
Joe D said “such a promising left-handed starter who will be just 27-years old and entering his prime years by that time” to which I replied and I quote
“For starters a pitcher is not entering his prime at 27. He’ll be closer to passing his prime than entering it by then”
So before you go calling people “STUPID” maybe reading would help? Since I never said “a pitcher enterin 27 or a player entering 28 years of age has ALREADY reached its prime??”
And again “cliff lee, sabathia, best years of andy pettite, randy johnson, hell, even tom glavine’s best year and you will see how all of them BECAME BETTER AROUND 27-33 years of age… ugh..” You’re using the games BEST to make a case for Jon Niese.
Does that mean if Jon Niese isn’t a hall of fame or a debatable HOF pitcher in the future that you’ll admit you were wrong? That’s the bar you’re setting for him.
You’ve used Maddux, Lee, Sabathia, Pettitte, Big Unit and Tom Glavine to build your case for Jon Niese.
I can’t fathom why you don’t see that as ridiculous.
Yes, you can even stay in the organization and point to Jerry Koosman who at age 33 went 21-10 with a 2.69 ERA, 200K’s, 1.0* WHIP and finished second in Cy Young that year. At age 36 Kooz finished 6th in Cy Young voting with another 20 win season. By the way, who’s more underrated than Koosman? If he didn’t wast 8-9 years on bad Mets teams he’d be a 300 game winner and in the HOF.
You don’t win without experienced 30+ year old veterans. That’s all there is to it. As you already know many men mature at that age and 30 & 31 is exactly old, not by a long stretch
Alex: Again, I will repeat what I said since you’re taking what I said and making it fit an agenda
““For starters a pitcher is not entering his prime at 27. He’ll be closer to passing his prime than entering it by then”
Lets say a pitcher gets his starting role at age 25 on average. I’m saying 25, 26, 27, 28 are generally better years than 29, 30, 31, 32. Obviously there are always exceptions. A guy like Roy Halladay is an exception though he did win a cy young at age 26 so even though the entire body of work wasn’t as good at a younger age, he still showed he could dominate.
I didn’t say they were PAST their prime at 27. I said they were not ENTERING their prime at 27.
jesse, please, you obviously only know about halladay because you’re a young kid, but i can give you sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo many pitchers out of the top of my head is not even funny:
dave stewart, maddux, johnson, glavine, carlton, marichal, smoltz, schilling, kevin brown, jim kaat, herschisher, drabek, pedro, clemens was good young and old,
Alex: I can’t compare Niese to Hall of Famers. If you’re only hope to prove me wrong is by naming All-Time greats in the sport then you are not understanding that 99% of the people who will play this game won’t be in the HOF. If you tell me you think Jon Niese is a Hall of Famer then that is another debate I’ll gladly have.
So throw Maddux, Unit, Glavine, Carlton, Smoltz, Pedro, Marichal or Rocket (roids) for every elite pitcher you name I can probably name 20 in my defense.
You said the following were off the top of your head and “was good young and old”
Dave Stewart, Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown, Jim Katt, Orel Hershiser and doug Drabek.
Since I know you like simple #s, I’ll keep this simple for you. I said “I’m saying 25, 26, 27, 28 are generally better years than 29, 30, 31, 32″ I never said all pitchers are terrible when they get older. I said, exactly what I said.
So
Doug Drabek (pay attention now) ages 25-28 66-39 929 IP 2.92 ERA
Doug Drabek ages 29-32 46-44 844 IP 3.77 ERA
Which was better? Oh by the way he won a Cy Young at 27.
Dave Stewart: He was easy because you said these guys were “good young and old”: Through his 29th birthday and 7 pro years Dave Stewart compiled 39 wins. He won 20 at the age of 30. So I’m not sure how he was good “young”?
Schilling: Kinda like Dave Stewart only mixed success. I’m not sure why you’d bring him up though? At age 23 and 24 he was a reliever… 25, and 26 he was very similar to Niese actually and then 27, 28, and 29 he appeared in 56 games combined and battled through injury. So I’m not sure what that proves for except its likely Niese will get injured later on in his career maybe? Schilling had 121 starts before a 29/30 year old Schilling broke out in 1997. Schilling’s career is based off of 34, 35 and 37 years old. You wanna wait that long be my guest
Kevin Brown: Wasn’t anything special UNTIL he was 27. So how was he good “young”?
Another late bloomer and exception
And Jim Kaat, I’ll remind you again what I said “I’m saying 25, 26, 27, 28 are generally better years than 29, 30, 31, 32″
Kaat ages 25-28 76-48 3.40 ERA
Kaat ages 29-32 55-49 3.72 ERA
I’d have no problem trading Niese if the return was worth it.
Saying he ‘could’ win us 15 games is the same as saying so could Pelf, who actually did it once already.
I like Niese but I don’t see him as any ace type pitcher or even strong #2.
Yes, but Niese can win 15 games not just for one year, but for multiple years. Niese has a much, much higher ceiling than Pelfrey – Niese is only 25, he’s a lefty, he has a nasty cruve, and by the way, he is and a former top 100 prospect. Niese has a lot of talent, he just hasn’t put it all together YET – I think he’s going to have a big year next year.
Which is why that if the Mets trade him his return will be incredibly high.
A lot of pitchers can win 15 games. It is a lousy way to measure a pitcher’s ability.
and Pelf’s ceiling is in fact higher. The difference is Niese didn’t have as much hype coming so it looks like he’s realizing his potential better.
Hmm, Vinnie gives reasons why he thinks Niese has upside. Vinnie shows some baseball intelligence. I*n disagreeing with hem, all donal can say is nothing in defesne of his Pelfrey upside argument. He just makes a blanket statement with no substance. Could it be that donal is confused by the Niese trade rumors so he is prematurely doing the typical Met front office Bull of knocking a guy who is about to be let go or is gone?
Omarfan Boy, I’d love to have a conversation with you, but I don’t speak “pathetic reject”.
No you just act it with authority!
Strausbourg or Stanislovsky?
well, pelf has had good years by the standards here. 15 wins and an ERA of 3.66? Get 5 guys doing that and start printing playoff tickets. And that was only 2 years ago (2010).
and that has to come into play when projecting players for the future. there is a big step between “potential to do something they have never done” and “potential to bounce back and do something again that they did in the past”.
Mike Pelfrey did have a good year in 2010. And that was because of his spilt-fingered pitch. It caught the league surprise early on, and then once the league figured it out, he came crashing back to earth – He had a 4.42 ERA from July to the end of the year, after having a 2.93 ERA from april-june.
Mike Pelfrey is now going to be 28, and is coming off a year with a 4.74 ERA. And from 08-11 his ERA stands at 4.27, while Jon Niese, in only his 1st two seasons as a starter has a 4.30 ERA – So Niese who is three years younger than Pelf, is already pitching as good as him, and Niese hasn’t put it all together yet – Like I already said, he has a lot of talent. And once he does put it all together, he’s going to be really good.
Neise is getting a lot of love lately.
what is really interesting is until his name popped up in trade rumors, you were more likely to see him lumped into the trash catagory with the rest of the rotation, and not expected to ever be more than a back end guy with mediocre results. Now he is more likely to be considered something to hold onto at all costs.
and that is from the same people in most cases!
I always liked Jon Niese. I have been saying that he’s going to be really good ever since he came up.
I like Niese as well. Love watching pitch when his curveball is on. It’s a great thing to see but by the same token I am not so much in love where I am adverse to entertaining what other teams think he would be worth.
It is not trade Niese cause he has to go it is trade Niese if it’s a deal that can’t be passed up.
What that deal is can only be determined once it is offered and it can’t be offered if it is not even entertained.
one thing about the pitching by age debate to keep in mind is attrition. Every year, more fringe guys get eliminated for sucking. Plus plenty of guys get hurt and never come back. So, by the time you get into the 30s, you are more likely to be seeing the cream that rose to the top, and of course the guys that managed to stay healthy. That is why the list of guys pitching significant innings tends to skew more toward the stars as they age. The stiffs are either gone, or doing mop up duty.
I just checked the Mets 40 man roster. Niese is still a Met so there is that.
Trading Niese is stupid. At least let him have a solid season.
If I were Sandy, I wouldn’t trade any pitcher under 30 years old. Period. Including Pelf.
WOW all these nasty comments based on rumors by the almighty Jon Heyman and the NY Tabloid NY post – however if it fits into the “Hate Alderson at all cost despite the facts” crowd it must be true than.
You must be new here. Its LOVE or HATE Alderson at all costs on this site with no in between, And the ones that argue are always the same usually Donal, Agee, Jeesep vs Bayonne, Alex and some dude who always has Omar in his name. If you like extremism and comedy, this is the place to be and those are the guys to watch.
:hattip:
Did I hear my name?
Well, Niese has a nice arm but lets not get all met fan and project a mediocre pitcher into a prospective Whitey Ford. He is average, has not really improved and has been hurt at the end of the last two years. Like a poster said earlier, it is a sellers market for lefty starters, so only a moron GM would not be trying to take advantage of it with a mediocre pitcher on his hands.
relative to the rest of the mets staff, he is whitey ford.
@jessep Sorry to break to you but 27 is not the peak age for Pitchers. I looked at every NL team (if anyone wants to do the AL be my guest I don’t have time). The results speak for themselves on avg. a players begins his first good year in the years 27-29ish and continue through at least the early 30′s when they peak. I had to exclude the young pitchers since we don’t know what will happen to them in the future.
Ian Kennedy 27 years old (had his best season in 2011) only now entering his prime. He is rising for many more years.
Joe Saunders 30 years old (had his best seasons ever in 2011) only now entering his prime.
Edwin Jackson 28 years old (had his best season in 2011) only now entering his prime. He is rising yet to hit his peak.
Chris Carpenter (his best seasons were from age 29-36, his worse seasons came at age 22-29.
Kyle Lohse (From age 22-29 he never had one season of less than 4.18 ERA, from age 29-32 he had two of his best seasons ever! 2008 & 2011.
Charlie Morton age 27: Had his best season in 2011 , he is rising yet to hit his peak. Prior to 2011 he was not good at all.
Jeff Karstens age 28: Had his best year in 2011, his potential is on the rise, before 2011 he was developing but was terrible.
Paul Maholm age 29: Most GM’s believe he turned his career around last year at age 29.
Matt Garza age 27: There are 3-4 teams fighting over Garza as we speak and are willing to give up 4 prospects because they believe Garza is only going to get better the next few years.
Wandy Rodriguez 32 years old: Terrible up to age 29, has been sensational from 29to 32 years of age.
Aaron Harang 33 years old: from age 27-33 he had 4 seasons of 3+ ERA ( He probably peaked last year at age 33…but from age (From age 23-27 his ERA was above 5.)
Tim Stauffer 29 years old: His last two years he has only gotten better as he approaches 30.
Roy Halladay 34 years old: He was a good pitcher from age 21-27, but from 27-34 he became a sensation.
Cliff Lee 33 years old. From 23-28 Lee was a struggling pitcher from 28-33 Lee has become an Ace.
Cole Hamels 27 years old. Had his best year as of yet in 2011. Think GM’s believe it’s donw hill form here? Well think again, GM’s are predicting Hamels will be offered a 6-7 year deal close to 125-140 mil..sounds like has yet to reach his potential.
Roy Oswalt 34: From age 27-34 he had 5 all star seasons…nuff said.
Randy Wolf: his only above avg year before the age 27 (2002) age-25. His best years were 2008,2009 and 2011 all in his 30′s.
Shaun Marcum 29. The definition of player getting good in his late 20′s is this guy. his last 2 years have been great.
Hiroki Kuroda 36. Came to the MLB at age 33 and his been a beast every year.
Ted Lilly 35. If Marcum is the poster boy for late 20′s pitchers, Lilly is the poster boy for getting good in to your early 30′s. Lilly sucked in his 20′s and he was around for all of them, but in his 30′s he learned. Lilly
s worst years are form 23-30, his best years are form 31-35.
Anibal Sánchez 27. If you ask the Marlins they think this guy hasn’t event come close to touching his potential.
Josh Johnson 27. If he stays healthy his best years are still a head of him, could be like Roy Halladay.
27 will never be a realistic age for peaking. In order for that to be true, a player has to start having his best years at age 23-24 and peak at 27…1 in 100 will do that nothing more. Just facts. Sorry.
Metstar: I appreciate the baseball discussion. I’ve had a long night and will respond tomorrow but let me be clear I said “For starters a pitcher is not entering his prime at 27. He’ll be closer to passing his prime than entering it by then”
I already see points where I disagree such as Saunders’ best year was 2011. His best year was 2008 at age 27.
Finding a few players doesn’t prove a general statement when you consider there are at minimum 150 starting pitchers in the league.
I’ll read your list and reply, and hope you reply back tomorrow.
how can the Niese rumors get 108 comments? Very stange…
There you go again skewing the facts. You said:
For starters a pitcher is not entering his prime at 27. He’ll be closer to passing his prime than entering it by then. This is why you see most free agents 28, 29, 30 etc. because their teams generally lock them up during their “prime.”
WRONG!
Most players begin their major league careers at 22-24 years old. They are then under team control for seven years before they become free agents. That is why they are free agents at 28,29,30.
Also, they are rarely ever ever locked up as you say. If a few of them have had 2-3 all star level seasons sometimes teams offer them a multi-year deal, but it’s mostly to buy out their arbitration years.
The way you make it sound is that all players good or bad are locked up until they’re 28-30, they aren’t. That’s when all players hit free agency for the most part whether you are star or a scrub.
That comment was for jessep!
i’ve liked Niese for a long time…when he was in the minors…when he had that breakout year in AAA…what 3 years ago(?). We need players; we need depth; we need prospects. i would trade Niese IF we got a lot of value back. i agree that’d be very subjective and vulnerable to being very wrong, but we’re not in a great or winning’ competitive position, presently.
The Red Sox have a ton of quality, near MLB-ready prospects, of which we could claim a few more Niese, including: Ryan Lavernway (C), 25 in August; Will Middlebrook (3B), 24 next year; Jeremy Hazelbaker (OF), 25 in August; Kylie Weiland (SP), 25; Alex Hassan (OF), 24 next year; Alex Wilson (SP), 25. Center the deal on Lavernway, Middlebrook, Weiland, & Hazelbaker and do it. OR we throw in Parnell, and maybe get the whole parcel.
Unless the Yankees are willing to give up Montero & Banuelos, i’d rather deal with Boston.
That’s me. i could be very wrong…but we need ready – to – near ready MLB prospects. i’d do this deal.
MetStar: Again, I appreciate the calm baseball discussion you brought to this. Here is my view.
Players aren’t done at 27, though people in this thread like to claim I said that… I didn’t. What I said was when you’re a 27 year old pitcher you’re CLOSER to having your best days behind you than in front of you. There will ALWAYS be players like Cliff Lee who “find their way” at a later age. But there are at minimum 150 starting pitchers in the league and they all are more likely to follow a more logical career path than Lee did.
The question here was whether a 27, 28 year old Jon Niese was worth having in the future rotation OVER having a potential catching prospect. Remember that… So that means like 3 years from now is Jon Niese the guy to be in the future rotation, which in turn to me means you think he’s good enough to build a rotation AROUND. Would you rather have a good young catcher 3 seasons from now or Jon Niese? I’d rather have the catcher.
If you go back to the 2006 season, using a filter where you don’t look at any qualified pitchers over the age of 28 which means the oldest guy on this list would be 33 and take Top 30 in ERA, then Top 30 in K and Top 30 in Wins.
I think looked at guys on those lists and said “who would you want to build your rotation around prior to this past seasons Opening Day?” So that’s after 4 years.
Top 30 ERA You Likely Would not want to build a rotation Around April 2011.
Johan Santana (you can’t say you would based on injury)
Brandon Webb
Carlos Zambrano
Chris Young
John Lackey
Chien-Ming Wang
Clay Hensley
Erik Bedard
Aaron Harang
Jason Jennings
Barry Zito
Dontrelle Willis
Chris Capuano
Scott Olsen
Jeremy Bonderman
Jake Peavy
Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Ervin Santana
Brad Penny
Dave Bush
Zach Duke
Gil Meche
Jon Garland
The only guys you would are: Sabathia, Verlander, Myers (maybe?), Haren, Cain, Lee,
Top 30 K leaders (not on ERA list) that you wouldn’t build around:
Ian Snell
Scott Kazmir
Daniel Cabrera
Top 30 K leaders you would: Beckett, Hamels, Liriano (maybe?), Josh Johnson
Top 30 W leaders you wouldn’t build around:
Joe Blanton
Jason Marquis
Claudio Vargas
Top 30 W leaders you would: Buehrle, King Felix
So by my count if you’re building a team prior to this past year there are 12 pitchers that were younger than 29 who you still would want to build around and 30 you would not.
That means over 70% of the starting pitchers younger than 29 would be guys you’d like to build a rotation around prior to this past season.
That’s my point. It’s not that Niese’s arm will fall off or he suddenly will have a 6.00 ERA when he’s 27, 28… it’s that pitchers generally do not age well. And if you’re holding onto a guy to keep in your rotation 3-4 years from now, you’re likely seeing his best days now rather than when he turns 29, 30, 31, 32.
An older pitcher can and will give you a flash of brilliance every so often. But we’re talking about consistency. If a guy gives you barely anything from 29-33 but gives you a career year at 34, he still hurt you in those previous years did he not?
A young pitcher like Harvey or Wheeler would be 25, 24 when they likely make an impact. If they are special they will pitch consistently well injury free into their early 30′s for sure. But they could give you 5-6 good years, and that’s all you can hope for. The key is to have other young pitchers by then to create an actual farm system not a system that produces 2 guys and hopes they lead you to a title.
And given the current state of the Mets, I’d rather put my faith in another future arm and future catcher than put it in the fact that Jon Niese will defy the odds and pitch well into his 30s because right now I don’t see how you could truly say it’s going to happen.