23
2011
MMO Top 20 Prospects – #1 Zack Wheeler
An article by 
Mets RHP Zack Wheeler is more than just the Mets #1 prospect. He is more than the player acquired in the one undeniably fantastic move that Sandy Alderson has pulled off as GM so far. He is more than a very talented, 21-year-old righty with an explosive fastball and a ton of upside. He is the hope for Mets fans, that the future will be here sooner rather than later. If the cash-strapped team known as the NY Mets is ever going to play respectably good, contending baseball again, they sorely need players like Wheeler, and Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia to develop so that they can come up to the majors and contribute. Rather than come up to the majors too early so that they stagnate in their development, or worse even, never make it at all.
They could use a return to health by Johan Santana of course, but the way things are going that probably is not going to happen. But what about Jenrry Mejia? He should be back from TJS by the second half of 2012, which could mean a 2013 arrival into the rotation. Then there are pitchers right behind those guys that should someday contribute at the big league level. Players like Darin Gorski, Jack Leathersich, Domingo Tapia, and Akeel Morris, should all arrive in the next three years. But Wheeler is the lynchpin on which all else turns. Without his contribution, there is no other clear-cut choice for a future top-of-the-rotation guy.
No one in the Mets system at this time, profiles as a SP1/SP2 type of pitcher except for Wheeler. Harvey and Familia, despite being fairly advanced pitchers and throwing mid-90′s, profile as SP2 or SP3 guys at best, providing they develop better change-ups. But Wheeler is just a tic better, and here’s why.
Although fastball command is constantly worked on with every pitcher in the Mets system, and Wheeler certainly needs to continue to work on his to be successful, he has the ability to change speeds off his fastball which can be very effective against good hitters. Wheeler’s fastball is normally between 93-95, sometimes hitting 96 or 97, with arm-side run. He pitches aggressively and is not afraid to pitch inside, but when he is having trouble hitting his spots, he sometimes takes something off his fastball with the speed as low as the high 80′s.
He throws from a three-quarter arm-slot, which is very conducive to the curveball, and Wheeler throws a good one that may even be his best pitch. Like with his fastball, he needs to work on his command as he tends to throw too many curves in the dirt, but he changes speeds well, throwing it 72-78 mph, and keeps hitters off-balance. His curve has two-plain break and when it’s on, it’s very tough to hit.
His change-up is his weakest pitch by far, since he seldom throws it. It comes in at 82-84 with a little sink and late tailing action. If he threw it with more frequency he could easily make it an average pitch and it has the upside, if he can speed up his arm delivery and maintain the velocity and fade, to be an above average one.
At 6’4″ and 185 lbs., Wheeler is not a max effort pitcher but is very aggressive on the mound. He shows good balance with his delivery and repeats it well. He has broad shoulders and should add on some muscle as he fills out. There is no reason why the added strength won’t help his command, and could add some more velocity to his fastball. He clearly overwhelms hitters at high A and should definitely find himself in the Binghamton rotation to start next season. If he shows good progress, a mid-season call-up to AAA would not be out of the question.
Zack Wheeler video
This concludes our MMO 2012 Mets Top 20 Prospect list. I hope you enjoyed following along. Over the coming days I will be releasing my 2012 Mets Top 21-30, 31-40, and 41-50 Prospects lists, for those of you that can’t get enough lists and player rankings.
2012 MMO Top 20 Prospects
1. Zack Wheeler RHP
2. Jeurys Familia RHP
3. Matt Harvey RHP
4. Jenrry Mejia RHP
5. Brandon Nimmo OF
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF
7. Juan Lagares OF
8. Wilmer Flores INF
9. Cesar Puello RF
10. Reese Havens 2B
11. Cory Mazzoni RHP
12. Jordany Valdespin INF
13. Darin Gorski LHP
14. Phillip Evans SS
15. Jefry Marte 3B
16. Collin McHugh RHP
17. Juan Urbina LHP
18. Akeel Morris RHP
19. Michael Fulmer RHP
20. Danny Muno INF
About the Author: Peter Shapiro
The first time I went to Shea was not for a Mets game, it was for the Beatles concert there in August of '66. My first Met game was '67, a guy named Salty Parker was the interim-manager then. My first pennant race was 1969. As a 12 year-old that summer and fall, I managed to get to the park for 3 games. The first was the beginning of the Miracle which actually started on Tuesday July 8, 1969 with a day game against the Cubs. I was there a lot in '73. I saw games 3 & 5 of the 1973 NL Playoffs against the "Big Red Machine", from the upper deck behind home plate. It was from there that I witnessed the fight between Bud Harrelson and Pete Rose, and the mayhem that ensued. And that sweet victory in game 5! I saw a couple of WS games at Shea that year against that legendary Oakland A's club. I was there in 1985 for every single game Dr. K pitched including his two 16 strikeout performances, and the day he one-hit the Cubs on an infield single and the Mets won 1-0. I loved being a Met fan in those days. Hopefully we are once again preparing to emerge from the darkness.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Petey good job on all of this
I think the most important aspect to Wheeler/Harvey/Familia/Mejia is that they are handled properly in the minor leagues and not rush through the system to please angry fans and fool them into thinking everything will be okay.
In a utopian world, these 4 kids will be the future of the Mets. In my cynical mind, I’d say at least 2 of them will not hit their projection but that’s life of a baseball prospect.
These 4 though will be the true test of the Mets farm system. Keeping them healthy, helping them learn how to be a pitcher in the big leagues and not a thrower. Talent gets you so far.
Oh, Petey, you’re going to get some crap for this.
Seriously, good job. Your profiles are really interesting reading.
One thing I disagree with though. I think you are short changing Harvey and Familia a little. While Wheeler is probably closer to a true ace than either of them, most stuff I’ve read say they look to be good #2s and maybe decent #1s. #1.5s I guess you could say.
Why would he take heat donal???? He did his write up, gave his explanation etc. All things that you never do. You get criticized because you show nothing but hero worship for lord sandy. You are incapable of standing behindyour lines because they have no basis in anything but what you are spoon fed. This guy backed up his logic. He gets an A… You get your normal F.
Wally Backman on Familia and Harvey:
Binghamton manager Wally Backman is already on record as calling Familia’s curveball the best he has seen since a young Dwight Gooden. Now he sounds ready to include Harvey, last year’s No. 1 draft pick out of North Carolina, in the same conversation.
“He got 16 swings at curveballs in his last start,” Backman was saying over the phone Wednesday, “and not one of them even made contact. I know it’s Double-A, but this kid has a big-league, swing-and-miss curveball.”
Backman’s voice was rising now, as he recalled Harvey’s seven-inning, 10-strikeout gem against Harrisburg last Thursday – the best start that the 22-year-old righthander has made since being promoted to Double-A Binghamton in late June.
“Bryce Harper is the real thing, believe me,” Backman said, speaking of the Nationals’ heralded outfield prospect, “but Harvey made him look so bad with that curveball. He struck him out twice with it and honest to God, the guy swung over one of them by at least a foot.”
It hasn’t been a fun summer for Backman, whose Binghamton team was 22 games under .500 going into Wednesday night’s game in Altoona, Pa. However, he is convinced he has seen the Mets’ pitching future arrive there, with both Familia and Harvey earning in-season promotions from Class-A Port St. Lucie.
“They can both be quality starters on a championship-caliber club,” Backman said. “They’re both No.2, maybe No.3 type starters and I’m telling you, they’re for real. I wouldn’t say it if I wasn’t sure about them.
“They’re pretty much electric. They both have mid-90s fastballs – Familia has a little more velocity. They both have those great curveballs and they’re both working on their changeups. Harvey could have won in the big leagues the way he pitched in his last start. It’s just a matter of becoming more consistent.”
Peter, MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!!!
To be fair Alex, Wally Backman hasn’t seen Wheeler pitch. He managed Harvey and Familia. You know I don’t defend general managers like some do, no general managers, they are all open to criticism from the day they make their first move. But you’re not being fair here and Petey really knows his stuff or I would have never let him represent the site like I have. The Mets affiliates have spoken highly of him and even some of the prospects he’s written on have sent thank you emails.
Ummm, Joe D, i am not criticizing petey for publishing this, i love petey and his articles, he’s one the few good writers you have here along with clayton and satish and hojo among others, i am not saying wheeler shouldn’t be #1, but imo he shouldn’t be ranked this high just because BA has him rank.. Familia and Harvey are closer to the Majors than he is right now, also, Familia and havey have both DOMINATED their respected league at some point, we have yet to see that from wheeler, matter of fact ,on the game the mets single A team were about to clinch the championship wheeler pitched and was BOMBED!!! making it a little weird to like from a kid who will be handlingthe NY pressure every time he gets the ball, that automatically deserves at least a yellow flag, is he highly touted by BA and some scouts?? yeah, but so was murvey, holt, etc……. in my opinion, FAMILIA AND HARVEY will lead the mets rotation, this kid, not so much… but i wish i am wrong, and all 3 become superstars pitchers who lead us to a WS championship….
PETER, from scoutsbook on wheeler
:
A flame-throwing righthander from Georgia, Zack Wheeler mixes his 96mph fastball with a curve ball that’s already a plus pitch. He’s adding a changeup, and if he can make it even a league-average offering he can be a middle-rotation starter anywhere. Even without one, his fastball-curve combination is good enough for a major league bullpen today. He’ll need some seasoning, of course, and scouts would like to see his pitcher-perfect body take on a starter’s workload. He’ll probably spend most of 2011 in high-A, with a AA promotion possible.
So in the end you have Wheeler 1 and Familia, Harvey 2A and 2B according to how close they were to each other in your posts. It was fun reading these Petey, nice work. So now what’s next on your list?
MNJ, my friend, wishing you and your family merry christmas, even though we’ve had our differences in opinion you’ve always kept it classy..
Att: THE CORE
Right back at ya Bro. Que tu y tu familia pasen una feliz navidaded. Yo no se que tu bebes mas el Mama Juana o el Coquito pero cualquiera que sea recuerdate que mientras mas se cura mejor es.
jajaja, Mamajuan all day MNJ.. i’m a gold label type guy quite frankly, pero de vez en cuando me doy mi trago de brugal que me traen desde santo domingo….
Great job Petey.
It’s always fun when we read about great young talent.
Nice work Petey. Your prospect list is one of the things that drew me and kept me on this site. Job well done!!
Great job, Petey. You’ve done an impressive job with this and I’m proud to have you on our team. I can’t wait to send you out to Buffalo, Binghamton and Brooklyn with full access to the players and the clubhouses. 2012 is going to be a great year for minor league coverage on MMO.
What sticks out to me glancing at the list is, #’s 1-4, power starting pitching..beautiful thing
Wheeler by all accounts will be the ace of this team by 2014. This is why I trust what Sandy says. Think back to 1982, nobody saw us competing in 1985 except a guy named Doc Gooden came up and suddenly we had an ace and we went to the world series. I see Wheeler doing what Gooden did and even more because he wont be a drug addict and he will stick to playing the game right.
Thank you to everyone for the kind words, it really feels good to know you folks are enjoying reading my efforts. I enjoy the fact that not everyone agrees with me and the discussions that that evokes.
There are no better, more passionate, more knowledgeable or more intelligent baseball fans anywhere, than right here on MMO, and I’m proud to be one of you. Sure Harvey’s got a great curve, Familia is a sensational talent, no question. Any one of the three could have probably been ranked #1, when you consider how little separates them. And that you are really comparing apples to oranges, and that no one, no matter how good a scout they are, can predict what the prospect is actually going to do. They can only speak in terms of conjecture, which is far from a precise science.
The top five talents on the list, are in a special group talent-wise, after that it’s a real crap shoot, with most of the players ranked 6 through 20 pretty much interchangeable at this point, so if you want to mix em up and put them in your own order that is cool, I’d be interested in seeing what you got.
Any way, as far as what’s next MNJ, I think I’ll keep going, and put together a piece on prospects #21-30, with a blurb on each one. Then a 31-40, and a 41-50. I’ll keep sending some interviews out there too, as I complete them. And in Jan sometime I’m going to do a three-part series on the three crucial games that were the turning point for the ’69 Mets, one of the games I was at.
Lord knows we need some good young arms, but i read the same quotes about Pelfrey on the way up to the big club a few years back.Talk is cheap.Hopefully we will see good production at the mlb level from one or 2 of these guys in a year or two.Seems to be a lot riding on their hoped success
Hi Petey,
Great series of articles and I really learned a lot about our prospects.
Though I agree Wheeler could be an ace, I have to disagree describing his acquisition “the one undeniably fantastic move that Sandy Alderson has pulled off as GM so far.” We were indeed making a push for the wild card and acquiring him under such circumstances undermined both the team and the fans by sacrificing the present for the future in order to dump salary. Had we not done so and had Murphy covered the bag properly, thus avoiding injury, there could have been meaningful games in August and maybe even early September. Even if that was not to be, it should have been left to the players to stumble, not the front office.
I understand Sandy had no choice and am glad he managed to obtain such a top prospect considering the disadvantage of other general managers knowing he had to get rid of Beltran. But that doesn’t make it “an undeniably fantastic move” but rather one in a series of many that has caused ownership to be the ridicule of baseball and the source of anger and despair among it’s fan base. I can’t recall any organization that gave up on it’s players when just five games out in the loss column after the all-star break like the Wilpons did last summer.