3
2011
Mets Today: How Long Is Mets Rebuilding Plan?
An article by 
Joe Janish of Mets Today asks the question, “how long is the Mets rebuilding plan?”
Assuming you believe the Mets are in a “rebuilding phase”, how long do you think the rebuilding plan will last? And why / how did you arrive at that time frame?
The reason I ask is because there seems to me to be a wild variance among fans as to what constitutes “rebuilding” and a disagreement as to how long such a phase should occur. Some think it can be as short as a year; others believe it requires five years or more; and the rest of the fan base thinks the length fits somewhere in between.
I guess first you have to admit that we are rebuilding, a notion that the front office always disputes. As recently as yesterday, Sandy Alderson said he expects to have a competitive team in 2012, and soon after the season ended he said he would not punt the 2012 season.
That doesn’t sound like rebuilding, but if you forget the words and look at the actions, it tells a completely different story. What is it that they always say? If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it must be a duck, right?
Now as to the answer to Janish’ question, I would say there is no concrete answer. It actually depends on a lot of things and different variables. If Matt Harvey comes up next June and pitches like Dwight Gooden and Lucas Duda starts hitting like Darryl Strawberry then the rebuild could be complete in as little as one year if you fill in the missing parts via trades or free agency like GM Frank Cashen did. If both those players and other top prospects flop like former top prospects Eddie Kunz, Brad Holt and Alex Escobar did, it could take five, six, seven or even ten years. Ask the Pirates, Royals or Athlethics, they seem to be experts in rebuilding.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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I agree, but in reality, name one free agent Frank Cashen signed as GM. You can’t because it never happened unless you count Mike Cubbage . Also, to hope that Matt Harvey with his less than stellar set of secondary pitches comes up and and pitches like Doc is just a little far fetched because until he came Along, the only rookie pitcher to touch numbers like that was named Grover Cleveland Alexander.
Luck plays into this big time and i don’t think we’ve hit the bottom yet with this ownership group .
Even though George Foster, Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter were all trades, weren’t each of those trades accompanied with big new contracts? I’m almost certain right after Carter and Foster trades they both signed multi year deals right after the trade. Hernandez I’m not as sure, but he was certainly given a contract extension the following season before he became a free agent.
Foster is the one that was immediately extended with a 5 yr 10 million dollar contract.
BRIAN, YOU’RE KIDDING THAT A CASHEN SIGNED F/A IS SUPPOSED TO BE SOME KIND OF STUMPER. RIGHT? AFTER FAILING TO NET WINFIELD, FRANK, A COUPLE YRS LATER SETTLED ON GEORGE FOSTER. NOW HAD U SELECTIVELY ASKED FOR HIS FIRST TRULY SUCCESSFUL F/A SIGNING THE STUMPING WOULD’VE BEEN SUCCESSFUL.
AS FOR THIS QUESTION Re. REBUILDING TIME. MY PROGNOSTICATION IS 3Y BY 2015 AT THE LATEST AS THAT’S 1Y LONGER THAN MY ACTUAL 2014 DATE; BUT THIS IS THE METS, INJURIES ARE AS COMMON A DERAILMENT AS THE FRENCH RESISTANCE TO NAZI SUPPLY TRAINS. NECESSITATING AT LEAST A 1Y BUFFER FOR UNANTICIPATED DELAYS.
WHY? SANTANA’S PYROLL DRAIN WILL BE EXPIRED; AS WILL BAY’S THE CREAM OF OUR MiLB PITCHING PROSPECTS HARVEY,WHEELER,FAMILIA,MEJIA, GORSKI WILL ALL BE SETTLED IN ALONGSIDE THE BETTER OF NIESE/GEE AND LIKELY AT LEAST 2Y @ 100M PAYROLL RANGE GIVE WILPONS BREATHING ROOM AFTER PICARD FADES & SELIG RELIANCE IS PAST.
IMO, THERE IS A LINGUISTICAL CONFUSION THAT ABOUNDS BETWEEN FO VOCALIZATIONS & FANS’ INTERPRETATION AS THE FANS CONFUSE 2 KEY TERMS. COMPETING & CONTENDING THERE IS A CHASM OF COMPETANCE BETWEEN THE 2 AS TOO MANY FANS INACCURATELY INTERPRET THEM AS SYNONYMS
AS I DEFINE THEM:
COMPETING: A NON-PUSHOVER SQAD THAT IS STRONG NOUGH TO LEAVE EVERY SEASONMAL SERIES IN DOUBT REGARDLESS OF OPPONEN CAPABLE OFT TAKING 2 OF 3 AS OFTEN AS LOSING THE SAME NUMBER.
CONTENDING: A STRONG ROSTER THAT WINS MOST SEASON SERIES REGARDLESS OF OPPONENT AS SUCH IS VIEWED AS THE FAVORITE IN MOST SERIES MATCHUPS.
FROM A ROSTER COMPLETION VIEW ON A REASONABLE BUDGET A COMPETITIVE SEEKING GM ADDS PAULINOS, CAPUANOS & YOUNGS FOR MEANINGFUL CONTRIBUTIONS WHILE THE CONTENTION SEEKING GM SELECTS MOLINAS, BURHLES HARANGS FOR THOSE SAME CONTRIBUTION LEVELS.
THOSE ARE ME THOUGHTS ON THIS CONTENTIOUS TOPIC. PUN CERTAINLY INTENDED.
Great picture of Shea, by the way. Honestly, I’d say truly competitive in 2013 or 2014 at the latest. 2012 will see some rookies coming up, hopefully prep themselves for next year. We should see the team able to shed itself of the ugly contracts (Bay, possible Santana). Something will be decided on Wright at that point, re-signed or moved. Also, I think by 2013 there will be complete resolution on the Madoff situation. Maybe by 2014 we’ll have new owners. Here’s to hoping.
From your lips to Gods ears.Those d-bags will do whatever it takes to keep the team. Even if it means fielding a 100 loss team.
I’m sure you, like every other Mets fan, would do the same.
Good question. I don’t see the Mets rebuild lasting more than two years before they can be expected to win 90 or more games. Their top pitching prospects Wheeler, Harvey and Familia can all reasonably be expected to pitch in AAA at some point next season. After that the majors beckons.
It really depends on a lot of factors. After the 1983 season when the Mets lost Tom Seaver for the second time.and they hired Davey Johnson after their first couple of choices declined, it seemed.improbable that the rebuild was going anywhere fast that quickly but the pitching took a.quantum leap while Hubie Brooks came inroads his own and a anchored the offense with a developing Darryl Strawberry and a full year of Keith Hernandez.
Things looked bleak too after a disappointing 1996 when Generation K imploded. But in 1997, Edward Alfonzo, Carl Everett, and surprise contributions from rick Reed and Bobby Jones took them.to a 17 game improvement. You don’t know.what shape.a.successful rebuild will take.
When the 2004 season ended and the Met had depleted their farm with misguided trades for Kris .Benson and Victor Zambrano, did we think an.Nlcs was.in the future.less than.2.seasons.away? You never know.
I guess you have a short memory…Generation K. They sure workled out well didn’t they?
20 years if Wilpons remain as owners.
We had $145mil payroll last season and $110 in 2012. Teams have won the world series with much less. How much the Wilpons give Alderson is plenty of dough to win, but if all you do is squander it on the likes of Carrasco, Boyer, Paulino, etc. we’re going nowhere fast. Signing bums like that is NOT rebuilding. I dont know what it is. Drafting players in June is not rebuilding either all teams draft players in June.
What is rebuilding then?
Are the Yankees rebuilding? At least their first round pick won the MVP this year and they drafted AFTER us!
Their first round pick won an ward in the lowest levels. Let’s chill with the parade.
Are the Yankees rebuilding? No, they did that in the early 90s. Gene Michael ring a bell?
Look, rebuilding, in my mind, is what the Astros are going through. No minor league prospects at all, older vets, just crappy situation in general. The Mets, to me, is like rebuilding lite. They have some prospects, they have some chips they could certainly trade and they should be able to (given the market they are in) rebound and sign a FA or 2 when the foundation has been set. There are at lease a sun on the horizon. Will take some time, but will not take the 5-6 years that they estimate the Astros will need to get back to respectability.
Trading Wright, Bay and Santana will accelerate the process, slightly, but overall, it’s not a total wreck. There are prospects on the horizon. Right now, it’s about the finances, and if trading said stars gets the money to a manageable level and enables the boat to be righted, then maybe that is in the best interest of this team. Either way, punting on 2012 (which Alderson said he wouldn’t do) is not a completely horrible thing. If it gets more prospects in the system, clears dead wood and placeholders and enables the team to be able to use the FA market to push the team over the proverbial hump then sign me up.
As constructed, with some major BP help, this is not the 2011 Astros. They are not losing 100+. They may not win 85, but this is not Titanic + Iceberg. If the financial situation gets worse, well, we’ll have to revise that last statement.
Let us not get myopic and focus solely on 2012, while pouring gas on the 2013+ plans and start playing with matches.
‘Let us not get myopic and focus solely on 2012, while pouring gas on the 2013+ plans and start playing with matches.’
Well said. But with that being said, 2012 is gonna be ugly…..
I’ll take an ugly duckling if we get a swan in 1-2 years.
Read Vinny B’s post and tell me why 2012 is gonna get ugly? Unbelievable
Why the HELL should it be ugly? Amazing about the losing mentality that has enveloped people that have no will to think on their own.
It’s about Leadership and many people have thrown their brains to the floor and have completely surrendered themselves and let this new leadership think for them. We’ll see about that.
So, to me, the curisoity of the Mets rebuild is, the players are already in place on the team, to me the rebuild starts with Santana, Bay, Wright having GOOD seasons.. to start, if thats not going to happen this season, it will be real hard to see them cracking .500. But if they are having all-star seasons and we stay healthy any retooling signings are going to work better.
The other quickest way to rebuild to to get together a top-flight bullpen, then depend on quality starts their hitting…EHh, but we really need to see what transpires in the next 30-45 days before we can shape how we’re retooling/rebuilding, can’t really dive into what are the Mets chances until then..reyes unresolved , the bullpen needs rebuilt, c,2b,ss ect
The Mets will never admit it, but actions say we are throwing in the towel on 2012. This should be our bottoming out year.
This is going to be an ugly year with us finishing in the cellar as the Fish &the Nats get better. I would not be surprised to see them dip under 2 million in att. Who wants to watch that?
They RAISED TICKET PRICES FOR SPRING TRAINING &I put a sub standard product on the field….Why?….Our group of six have canceled our season tix.
2014 will be the start of the turnaround. Bad contracts gone and Wheeler, Harvey, Gorski will be seasoned
How long is Mets rebuilding plan? That’s easy, how long will this front office be in charge?
There are a lot of factors, as has been stated. You can look at most teams to see how they handle “rebuilding years” The Rays got new a brand new front office and within 3 years became legit contenders. In the AL East no less.
People like you mr donal; proclaimed loudly that 2012 would be the beginning of the good. Guys like you proclaimed that the genius and your god would save the team as soon as the evil’s Omar’s contracts for Krod and Beltran were gone. Now you proclaim it will take years. When th=your god sany is gne you will hate him as much as you now hate the ecvil omar. Wake up the only thing that will save this team is a an embarrassingly empty ball park and a very good Picard final result on his law suit to force the wilpon’s out. Until then unless freddy and Saul find a new ponzi scheme, this team will be pathetic.
The Mets don’t have to rebuild. The Mets can compete next year if they keep Reyes and make improvments to the pitching.
The Mets offense was actually pretty good last year, and that was without two of their biggest power hitters for most of the season, ike Davis and David Wright(and when Wright did play, he was playing with a broken back). And they also had to play in a ridiculously huge stadium. I think with Reyes at the top of the order with Ike, Wright, and Duda hitting behind him, the Mets should score a lot of runs….and who knows, now that Citi Field is a normal size, Wright could go back to his 05-08 numbers, and Bay could give us more production than he has the last few years.
What I would try to do to improve the pitching, is to package Murphy in a trade for a good, young starter. Guys like Gio Gonzalez, Cahill, Danks, Sheilds, and Garza are available – Those are the guys I’d like to see the Mets target. And Johan Santana is going to be back next year, so his return would also improve our pitching – Our rotation would look like: Santana, one of the guys I listed, Dickey, Niese, and Gee – That’s not bad at all, and with that lineup, the Mets could compete with that.
And there’s a lot of good RP’s available that we can sign, so I think the bullpen can be easily fixed. Guys like Capps, Coredero, Madson, and Francisco are still available, and would help our bullpen out a lot.
I want to see the Mets try to find ways to improve this team, instead of rebuilding becuase with some improvments, I think the Mets could compete.
A ridiculous idea that Matt Harvey and Lucas Duda could be the next Doc and Darryl. If Reyes is resigned everything changes. It means we are strong in the middle infield. If Ike Davis is healthy and Bay and Wright rebound in a smaller Citi Field this team will score runs. With some pitching help we can be a decent team. For the team to compete for a playoff spot they need the likes of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler to blossom in AAA ball and be promoted to the big leagues ready to contribute. Bottom line….That will take another year!
Competing for the Mets now means getting above the .500 mark and staying there!
It will be a VERY LONG time. The rebuilding has not even started yet, so it is premature to discuss when it will end. The rebuilding will actuall begin when the GM has completed his primary mission which is to clear out the eyewash (his word, not mine) from the team. The first phase of the eyewash clearance is to let Jose’ walk wherever he chooses to sign. The next phase of eyewash clearance will be to say goodbye to David after he finishes barfing once Jose’ is gone. Finally, without both Jose’ and David gone, Johan comes to the top of the list as more prime eyewash. So he will be shown the door as the next player who is too good for a team that is unable to benefit from his talents. After those 3 players exit, rebuilding will begin. So this is really a discussion for 2013. We are a year ahead in terms of being able to have a meaningful discussion about rebuilding. If you wany my opinion, it will be 2020 by the time the Mets clear out their eyewash and actually reach the point of having restocked the team with actual productive players. This assessment may very well prove out to be overly optimistic because I could actually be 10 years too aggressive in my conclusion. The only thing that could change this scenario is a liquidation fire sale of Wilpon assets that drops the team into the lap of an owner who actually cares and has both brains and funding.