29
2011
Mets Project A Better Than 10% Increase In Attendance In 2012
An article by Hojo's Mojo
In a follow-up to the S&P story making the rounds today, the New York Times reported that according to S&P the Mets project a better than 10% increase in attendance for the 2012 season.
S.&P. also described as “aggressive” the team’s preliminary projection that attendance will rise to 2.5 million in 2012 from 2.29 million last season. It said attendance was likely to keep falling and that a third of its luxury suites are up for renewal in 2012.
And here I thought I was the optimistic one…
Original Post 12/28
According to Mike Ozanian of Forbes, Citi Field had its rating outlook downgraded to negative by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services today.
The Mets and SportsNet New York, the regional sports network that is 65% owned by the MLB team, have almost $900 million of debt coming due on the two properties by 2015. In addition, the Mets, who lost $70 million after debt payments in 2011, must pay over $40 million a year in PILOT bond payments from stadium revenue. Attendance at Citi Field fell in 2011 and is likely to fall again in 2012 as the team is cutting payroll and lost its best player, shortstop Jose Reyes, to the Miami Marlins after this past season.
Forbes also reports that the Mets have yet to sell any of the ten 4% stakes in the team they have been trying to sell for over six months. Each stake is available for $20 million to new investors.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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…. Tick, Tick, Tick…….
Two conflicting ideas. The Wilpon empire, built thru ponzi schemes is crumbling quickly…. and even uncle buddy won’t be able to save them OR….its all a lie and everything wil be perfect in 2014 when all Omar’s kids ( and lord sandy’s one kid) are ready to give fred and jeff a dynasty.
When is someone going to start a pool on when the Mets (Wilpon) officially put the Mets up for sale? I pick November 9th 2012…
or start a pool on when MLB officially takes over control of the Mets…I pick January 15th 2013.
I think the Mets will be put up for sale before July 4, 2012. If the W’s somehow hang on past then, MLB will take control before Opening Day 2013. One way or the other, 2012 will be the last season under the W’s.
With so many great perks, I’m surprised no one has bought their 4% shares. They are only $20 million each, what a deal!
I guess those Mr. Met lap dances aren’t all they’re cracked up to be.
Those shares are a joke. Anyone with enough of a brain to accumulate $20M in a lifetime will not be so foolish as to blow it away by purchasing a minuscule Mets share that carries no policy weight. There are better causes to donate $20M to than the W empire.
If I could ask the Wilpons one thing it would be: You screwed up but why take a great baseball team and great fans down with you? Man up and cut us loose!
Wilpons it is time to save face and get out before you totaly loss the team to control by MLB even with Buddy Bud who does not want to do that. But get real the Mets under the Wilpon’s ownership is DOA at this time. Mets are becoming the laughing stock of Baseball which no Free Agencys want to come join then at this time.
WE NEED NEW OWNERS WITH DEEP POCKETS. Get somebody like the Yankee ownership to spend money for players. Lets Buy a Championship like cross town team.
The yankee owners ain’t funding anything out of their own pockets (in the sense of dipping in to cover the nut). The team just makes enough money that, even with a high payroll, they can turn a profit.
Even rich owners don’t pour money down a rat hole if the team won’t support it, certainly not for long!
exactly….. You make the point why the Met plan is a failure. The Yankees make a profit with a high payroll. Why is that any???? Its because the Yankees, unlike the Wilpons, know you have to spend to make. The Yankees didn’t make the playoffs for one little season and they bought out the market. The result… They were back in the playoffs, they were selling Yankee jerseys in record numbers and the kept the place sold out despite ridiculous prices. The Mets say, we’ll show thoise fans. We’ll make a cheaper product and they damn well come and buy our stuff no matter what… Or else, we;ll get rid of some more talent. The Wilpons think Met fans have to buy a lemon.
Secondly, as you can see by the debt and payments due the Wilpons managed to load their loans into bubble loans so the biggest payments were down the road, exactly the same thing they forced Omar to do with all the bad contracts he was forced to take the blame for. The Wilpons entire financial strategy for the Mets, the ball park and the cable station was based on the ponzi scheme going on forever. They can’t save their holdings because they are clueless when they have to earn money instead of lets be kind and say being gifted it by their old pal the ponzi master.
You’ll want to take a look at the Yankees business model that goes back longer than just the past 15 years.
It wasn’t until George was banned in the early 90s that they were able to hold onto their good prospects. Before that, George had a habit of selling out the farm for whatever current star he thought could help them win. That and overpaying for high priced FAs. Remember Winfield? He was so pissed off he wasn’t performing up to his specifications (and that high priced/long term contract he gave him) he did something underhand to get him banned from MLB.
The Yankees of the early 90s finally realized it takes a good farm system to be able to wheel and deal for pieces you might need, plus developing the best of the best and bringing them up when ready.
Sure, they’re spending now. They also have a good farm system to back it up.
LMFAO! Omar was forced to take the blame for the bad contracts????? Lord Omar is a huge part of why this team is in the mess they’re in.
So… much… DEBT!
By June, the Mets will fail to make a payroll & that will be it for the Wilpons.
So…….NONE of the 10 4% shares have been secured yet. Yet not too long ago Alderson was telling people that they should have those shares sold by January. Well, it’s December 29th and they’ve yet to sell even ONE. Looks like they’re gonna have to offer more than Mr Met, business cards, a parking space, and a luncheon with Danny Heep! Maybe the Wilpon’s should ask the US Government for a bailout, ala Bank of America and General Motors.
Someone (can’t remember who) posted here a little while back that this sale was all or nothing (meaning that the actual sales would not happen until all the buyers were secured), and that maybe 4 shares were spoken for? No idea if that was verified as accurate.
Anyway, all the “perks” are just background noise. As is the idea of getting into bed with the Wilpons. Anyone buying in is doing it to own a piece a what should be a very valuable asset, and getting it at a depressed price. Doesn’t really matter what happens to Fred and the gang, these folks will still own 4% of the Mets.
No clue of course what it would sell for, but 4% for 20mill means the valuation is $500,000,000 for the team. And that seems low. But again, we have no idea of the details of the purchase (what you get in terms of liabilities to go with your 4%!)
Thank you for your sales pitch any Wilpon.
What’s the debt overhanging the Mets? Something like $450 mil plus $25 mil to MLB plus $40 mil to BOA, plus 65% of the SNY debt of $430 mil? That adds up to something like $795 mil according to my calculator. 4% of that is nearly $32 mil. So if you “invest” $20 mil in an entity that carries $32 mil in debt responsibility, aren’t you under water in your investment? And you want presumably intelligent investors to buy into THAT? Excuse me, but you expect to sell how many of those things? Apparently, the W’s are seeking mindless, wealthy partners who will have no say in the business, but are willing to assume responsibility for a mountain of debt. I don’t think this shares scheme will fly very far. It is a scheme no better than the Ponzi scheme after all. The arrogance of the W’s is enormous. Do they think the rest of the world is stupid?
like I said, we have no clue how the deal is structured. they seem to have various corporate chells owning each other, and debt assigned there, so it really is unlear what debt load comes along with the shares.
Other than SNY being totally seperate from the deal.
Are you so naive as to think that the existing creditors will allow equity shares to be sold without recourse protection for the current creditors? It is irrelevant what the exact details are. The fact is that buyers of these shares will have to be responsible for their fair share of the corresponding debt overhinging the W Empire. The current creditors aren’t fools and there is no way purchase of one of these things does not involve assumption of debt responsibility. Given the current state of financial affairs, there is a great likelihood that these share will be underwater from day 1. There is a reason none of the shares have sold. Any buyer of something that pricey will have financial advisors review the contract and understand how they are being hoodwinked. You can sweet talk it any way you want, but the reality is the risk/reward ratio is all in favor of the W’s and negative to the fish they are baiting.
i think selling would only alleviate a portion of the debt. Their real estate empire cannot be flourishing in these times. If they are in hock for over a billion. Even if the new owners take over the stadium debt, I think they are still in hock for about 600-700 million (just an estimate), with Madoff still outstanding. That still could run in the hundreds of millions. Fact is, the mets are a source of income and they need something that has the possibility of making an income. They cannot keep borrowing just to pay everyday expenses. what would this team, and its stadium debt, bring on the open market?
I still think that their ultimate end game was to bubble everything, and if the play didn’t work, to BK and walk away. Hey, it is pretty common in the real estate development world to leverage and bust like that.
And also a reason that MLB is not pushing a take over, since they don’t want to open that can of worms if they can avoid it.
No one here (hell, probably anywhere) has a full understanding of the construction of the Wilpon/sterling/mets financial house of cards, but IMO it is naive to think Fred and the boys could just decide to sell tomorrow, and have it be a quick and easy transition. Or to think that MLB could swoop in and trun the team over to new owners quickly and painlessly.
Come on any…They had no end game…. The ponzi scheme was their gold mine. It was going to come thru forever. That was the game. Can’t beleive you actually beleive these Wilpons had an end game.
They are predicting over 30,800 attendance per home game!! Hahahahahaahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahah
When will this ponzi scheme end? Rise in attendance?????? More likely to have an elected government in Somalia
Isn’t it against the law to drive an organization into the ground while intoxicated?
As anyone my age knows, there is no law that there should be 2 ML teams in New York.
Pops (I lived through 3 becoming 1)
I project I am going to win the lottery next year also!
That’s too funny!!!!……You can’t make this stuff up with the Mets!!….Reality is stranger than fiction with this team!
What the Mets say publicly about attendance, even to sources like FORBES, is probably much more different from what they say behind the closed doors of the boardroom. That is the nature of spin and hype but it has become so insulting to our intelligence that for the Wilpons “PR” doesn’t remotely stand for”public relations” but rather “personal rubbish”. As with most politicians, take what they say with a grain of salt – including that “re-building” BS.
A few months ago I read where Sterling Enterprises had already been regulated to junk bond status which says a lot about their other business holdings.
I was thinking back in 1975 when Charles Finley sold the contracts of his star players to other teams so that he could make money before being stuck with nothing after it was obvious they were all going to leave Oakland when free agency began. Those transactions were all voided by Commissioner Bowie Kuhn on the basis that what Charlie O’ was doing was detrimental to the integrity of the game. When does selling off one’s best players in the middle of a wildcard race, assuring the elimination of further contending the rest of the season, not fall into the same category?
I wonder when they met with the S&P folks they also predicted a 10% increase in FUN!
They been giving us that line for awhile now as well!
For better or for worse.
For richer or for poorer.
The Mets projection when they met the analysts was almost certainly the same as now.
They cant afford to get caught knowingly lying. That would be a disaster. They can have projections that aren’t met, because they then can blame any number of issues. Never get caught lying. FUN is an intangible. FANNIES IN THE SEATS are facts revealed by the turnstiles.
Obviously those in the finance industry know the marketing research the Mets used to project a ten percent increase is flawed and full of holes. And don’t the Wilpons realize doing so only further demonstrates to those in the financial world how irresponsible they are as businesspeople?
Do they REALLY expect anyone to believe that attendance will actually INCREASE in ’12? After completely botching the Jose Reyes situation and letting him bolt without even a courtesy contract offer (even though we all knew they couldn’t afford to match the highest bid anyway) they can not honestly believe anyone is going to buy that rubbish. On the contrary they’ll be lucky indeed if it doesn’t DECLINE more than 10% in 2012. I’m sure S&P will certainly buy it and up their rating! LOL
Know I mentioned this already but we were given Champions Section tickets for the home opener last year and if extended the same courtesy this season we might politely decline the offer for we want to do our share contributing to the empty seats. And that is sad for no matter what, there is something special about being at the park on opening day but this is the only way to force the Wilpons to fold up camp.
Wait, 2.5 Million fans in attendance??? to go see who exactly?? this team has no superstars, not one exiting player, not a good team on the field. so please sandy alderson and Co, please tell us why any fan would spend their hard earn money on this team??? seriously, the mets brass are looking more idiotic by the minute, the countdown has begun and they’re backed up into a corner and need to come out publicly with statements like this, either that or they were smoking something really powerful….
Oh you forgot he fixed the BP on his GOOD DAY! Isn’t that worth a 10% increase in attendance? What a joke! They can’t figure their way out of a paper bag and think they can fool the world with smoke and mirrors. Reality will be striking in the near future. The 2012 season will be a watershed season as the walls come tumbling down. The financial empire of the W’s is on the edge of the cliff and ready to begin its final descent into oblivion. Unfortunately, the Mets will be a casualty of their callous and ill-advised schemes.
Why in the world would the Mets think attendance is going to RISE let alone by a FULL TEN PERCENT???
TheGod Day trhat fixed the BP has to be the explanation. Sell that one to the financial gurus at S&P, Moody’s and Fitch.
Maskman and all mets fans, what you guys are forgetting that sandy alderson had a good day… two days after losing the biggest star in the franchise and arguably the most exzciting player in ny mets history sandy alderson overpaid for 2 bullpen guys and acquire andres torres, so that alone should bring in more people than before…
Yes, isn’t it amazing how you lose Reyes, add 2 BP guys and a CF with one good year under his belt and the fans will be so excited that attendance will climb 10%? It is stuff like this that dreams are made of… yes, dreams, all pipe dreams. Do you notice how SA has disappeared after his Good Day? I guess he’s busy dreaming away of more Good Days to come. Just call him Mr. SAndman:
Mister Sandman, bring me a dream
Make him the cutest that I’ve ever seen
Give him two lips like roses in clover
Then tell him that his lonesome nights are over
Sandman, I’m so alone
Don’t have nobody to call my own
Please turn on your magic beam
Mister Sandman, bring me a dream
Mister Sandman, bring me a dream
Make him the cutest that I’ve ever seen
Give him the word that I’m not a rover
Then tell him that his lonesome nights are over
Sandman, I’m so alone
Don’t have nobody to call my own
Please turn on your magic beam
Mister Sandman, bring me a dream
Mister Sandman, bring us a dream
Give him a pair of eyes with a “come hither” gleam
Give him a lonely heart like Pagliacci
And lots of wavy hair like Liberacci
Mister Sandman, someone to hold
Would be so peachy before we’re too old
So please turn on your magic beam
Mister Sandman, bring us
Please, please, please
Mister Sandman, bring us a dream
MLB takes over the Mets April 30, 2012…. this is my entry in the pool.
the front office should try comedy cuz they sure as hell don’t know baseball