29
2011
From Left Field: 2012 Mets Predictions
An article by 
In anticipation of a new baseball season, all we’ve been hearing about is how the bad the Mets are going to be and how much financial trouble the team is in.
Well, though I’m usually the optimistic around here, I can’t help but admit that 2012 might be a long season.
But if Sandy Alderson has taught us anything in his tenure as general manager, it’s that baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.
The Mets struggled through 2011 dealing with a few major injuries. Now, without Jose Reyes and uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana, 2012 looks even bleaker.
Anyway, here are some 2012 Mets predictions—both positive and negative.
- Santana won’t make his season debut until May. He’ll win maybe 10-15 games with a low ERA but poor run support.
- One of Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey or Dillon Gee will spend a chunk of time on the disabled list. Come on, it’s the Mets. There have to be injuries.
- If so, Jenrry Mejia will get the first call-up from the minors. Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey are on their way, but we probably won’t see them this year, unless the team is so far out of contention—this may be.
- The new bullpen will be serviceable, but nothing special.
- Andres Torres will not be the starting center fielder by July due to injury or underperformance.
- Ike Davis will put up big numbers if he remains healthy. Possibly 25-30 homers. Expect Ike to take a role as a “face of the franchise” type player.
- David Wright will be traded by the trade deadline. Based on some rumors we’ve heard here, that date may even be much sooner. The Mets will look to acquire a can’t-miss catching prospect as well as other pieces.
- R.A. Dickey will not only successfully climb Mt. Kilimanjaro, but he’ll also be the Mets lone representative at the 2012 All-Star Game.
- Daniel Murphy’s defense will be better than expected. Not exactly Gold Glove caliber, but also not a huge liability. The guy’s a hard worker and will do what he can to be the best he can be.
- Jason Bay will get traded to a team willing to assume the final year of his contract. (OK fine, this is a wish, not a prediction).
- No Met pitcher will throw a no-hitter in 2012. Still, that would be great if it occurred during the 50th anniversary season.
- The fans will show up for 50th anniversary events, especially Banner Day, but other than those, Citi Field will be a relative ghost town.
- The Mets will finish in fourth place in the NL East with a 73-89 record. I’m not sure who will finish fifth, but I’m not going to predict that my team will finish last. It can very well happen, especially with the Nationals and Marlins improving significantly. Hopefully, the Braves will tank this year.
- Finally, the team will have some exciting moments. They always do, and that’s why we keep coming back for more. We’re Mets fans! We understand hardship, but it will be that much sweeter when all the pieces someday fall into place as we raise our third World Series trophy. I hope I’m around for that day, since I’m only 23 now. My final prediction is that I will be.
Feel free to add any more predictions; both positive and negative are welcome.
About the Author: Jim Mancari
Jim Mancari hails from Massapequa, N.Y. He recently earned a Master's degree in Journalism at Hofstra University. He is a devout Mets fan and takes pride in his team, despite their lack of success over the last few years. Like all Mets fans, Jim has plenty of hope. He also writes as the sports reporter for the Brooklyn Tablet newspaper and the senior editor of metroBASEBALL Magazine. Click my name to view my personal website.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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prediction: FREDDYE WILPONZIE WILL ONLY LIE WHEN HIS LIPS MOVE. GENIUSALDERSON WILL SMIRK WHEN ANSWERING A QUESTION.JEFFYE WILPONZIE WILL CONTINUE TO CHECK HIS FATHERS WILL DAILY.SAUL KATZ WILL LAND AN ACTING ROLE PKLAYING UNCLE FESTER IN AN ADAMS FAMILY REMAKE and SOME FANS ON THIS SITE WILL MARVEL AT HOW SMART GENIUSALDERSON IZ.
All very reasonable predictions there Jim…Good Job!
here are some to add to it…
Only Sell Outs will be the ones you mentioned plus the Yankee Series Of course it will mostly be Yankee fans who attend!
Once Wright is traded (foregone conclusion doesn’t matter what he does it only affects how much we get for him) Murphy will be our 3B and Havens will come up to be the regular 2B.
If Wright does not generate any interest expect to hear about deals for Ike Davis. If he continues where he left off before he got hurt he will get you more in return and open up a spot for Murphy to go back to 1st base leaving again 2B open for Havens.
(On your Bay Wish) He could very well increse his power numbers and get traded if we agree to pay half his salary or more for the remainder. Not a bad deal actually to do that!
I don’t think you will see Mejia due to injury but most likely Chris Young. Mejia is the man early if Santana can’t go but Young would be the call later in the season.
Harvey and Familia will make a really good case for promoting them early this spring.We should NOT do that however!
Lucas Duda will struggle to the point of concern during the season. I think he will overcome it but there will be lots of talk about replacing him and bust until he figures out what they figured out about his swing hole.
Pelfrey will bounce back and have a good season but the record won’t reflect it due to low run support. Now that the pressure is off he will pitch better. This goes away if Santana isn’t there or misses significant time putting the pressure back on Pelfrey.
The Mets will lose 40 Million minimum next year when all is said and done.
I agree about Havens. disagree about Duda though. Well rounded hitter, and I expect a big year out of him with the bat.
Well I didn’t mean to suggest Duda won’t have a good year just that he would go through an extended slump sometime during it and it will start people posting about concerns and possibly even suggestions of replacing him.
But I think he will get through it and have a very good season when it’s all said and done.
Davis went through that his first year here, Duda never really played enough regularly for them to figure him out. They will find a weakness and He will have to adjust to it.
I don’t think it will be a big issue maybe just a bad month, month and a half. But I do have faith in our Hitting coach to work him through it.
anything over 20 HRs this year will be a very good year to build on for Duda.
I think he can hit 30+ eventually. I just think that ANY slump by him will immediatly have the bloggers calling him out as a bust or a problem.
A hot start for him would be good to avoid that!
Welcome to Last Place. Hey Wilpons, sell the team for the sake of the Mets Fans!
I don’t think Pelfrey will do either, have a bounce back season or disable list, only 200 bad innings.
I do wish Bay well and think he will bounce back once he gets traded.
Nice job, Jim!
And from me:
The Wilponzis will be forced to sell by this time next year. And we will rejoice when we can spend like a NYC team!
Wright won’t be traded, and he will put up big numbers—cutting down on his strikeouts!
Murphy will hit .300 with 12 HRs, and play a decent 2B. He won’t get injured again there.
Davis and Dickey will both be in the All-Star game.
Francisco will do a very good job closing.
The Mets will win 79 games.
Harvey and Familia will be called up in September, but not before.
Duda will hit 22 HRs.
Pelfrey will stink—and be replaced in the rotation by Jeff Wilpon, who will pay himself a bonus for suiting up. But Santana will start at least 20 games and pitch decently.
Nimmo and Niewenhuis will tear it up in the minors! And so will Wheeler!
The attendance will drop to 1.7 million.
Steve S. — “Pelfrey will stink—and be replaced in the rotation by Jeff Wilpon, who will pay himself a bonus for suiting up.”
Great stuff. Sign this guy up too.
Somebody in a previous post has commented something along the lines that ‘the Wilpons will not make payroll in June/July and thus be forced out as owners.’ I soooooo hope this happens!
Here is a prediction-LAST PLACE!!
The only meaningful baseball will be played in March!
FL Met Fan Rich — I know you’re right. I think a lot of other Mets fans do too. Maybe a few games meainingful to other teams will be played after March.
Jim — I love ya buddy but Santana won’t have a good year. He’ll win maybe 5-10 games. Rushing him before he’s ready would prove to be disastrous. Jim, since you’re a true blue Mets fan, your optimism is understandable. I am too, but I’ve cut back on my optimism.
win 5 games? kind sir, ya lucky he starts 5 games.such a pity,santana has heart a trait missing in met ownership.i would rather see freddye wilponzie on the mound than jeffye. of course the first pitch….. a frozen rope up da middle. duck…….freddye.
Nice job
However they will finish last at 64- 98
Citi will sellout for yanks, banner day, 50 th anniversary, Reyes first game back and maybe for an nl east breathren as they clinch a playoff berth at the end of the year( their fans of course buying tickets on stub hub for half price)
Over the past 10 seasons…The Mets have finished in 4th or 5th place 6 times…I predict (guarantee) that trend continues, as they finish in last place with a record of 66-96 in 2012.
However…on a bright note, Johan makes 22 starts…and finishes 8-8 with a 3.37 ERA.
Write it down.
I think some of you are being a bit pessimistic. The new pen should outperform last years enough to offset the loss of Reyes’ contribution (WAR). Pelfry should improve enough to offset Gee’s regression, and baring major injury to everyday players like Murphy, Wright, and Davis, I could predict their 2012 record to be in the neighborhood of last years.
I thought my prediction was actually optimistic, all things considered. There is no way this ‘pen outperforms last years…and last years was terrible. Francisco is nowhere near K-Rod, and Washington used Rauch up and threw him out. Look at his numbers since the 2nd half of ’08…the Nats are turning into the new Braves…when they want to get rid of a quality arm, beware! Pelfrey should improve?! As if he is an up-and-coming youngster. The guy has played 4 full seasons, plus 2 partial seasons…he has put together 2 good halves (2nd half of ’08 and first half of ’10). If you’re resting your hopes of any type of Mets success on the right arm of Mike Pelfrey, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. As for baring any major injury to Murphy, Wright, and Davis…well, Murphy is coming off of his 2nd straight season ending injury…anything you get from him is gravy. Wright is in the midst of a 3 year decline, and now no longer has Beltran or Reyes in the lineup, and we’ve seen how bad he has been when he has no help in the lineup before. And, Davis, as good as he was last year for 30+ games, he is still a really young player who has about 180 games under his belt and has not played major league baseball in a year, so expecting him to be Pujols or Prince as asking too much of a 24 year old.
If this team losses less than 100 games in 2012, then the season can be deemed a success.
Im really tired of this no faith, drop the ball (CASTILLO!) and take the hands out of the fire spirit…its not even 2012 yet, LET ALONE spring training. The Mets will do just fine as long as we go and show that we are those honest fans we claim ourselves to be, what happen to the “win, lose or tie im a mets fan until i die OR bleed blue and orange since (date of birth) OR never give up true mets attitude”?…i always hope, dream and expect big in anything i do and especially for my mets…i might be born in 91 and wasnt blessed with the 86 Mets or Tom “the franchise” Seaver but i will be DAMNED if that gives me the right to just let it all go and say it will never happen, I AM A METS FAN AS MUCH AS THE NEXT GUY OR EVEN MORE and there is no chance in hell i will give up on my hometown flushing team THE NEW YORK METS…as long as the mets have the new york attitude of in your face, determination and in your face attitude they will go far (1986)…i will leave you guys with this…did you “predict” d backs, cards and rays in playoffs or better yet the cardinals as 2011 champs?
“what happen to the “win, lose or tie im a mets fan until i die OR bleed blue and orange since (date of birth) OR never give up true mets attitude”?…”
The front office has different ideas on how to win and it scares some people so much, they complan about absolutely everything, cry about it, and take their ball and go home. I’m with you, Pauly. The name on the front is and always was more important than the name on the back, and I’ll never stop going to games, no matter who’s on the field, in the front office or in the owner’s box.
Good post, young shaver.
Supporting your team is a wonderful thing pauly but when you have an ownership whose only concern is hanging on to ownership, when you have a gm that basically threatens the fan base by saying in so many words, don’t come, they lose dough, we dump more good guys, then the only way to smartly support your team is to stay home, to wear your old jersies and not buy new ones, to do everything you can that help the Wilpon’s fail to pay their debt and ultimately sell so we can have a team we are proud of, a team whose ownership wants to win as much as you do, so we want to spend our hard earned money going to Met games and buying new jersies and buying overpriced beers etc. Unfortunately, the Wilpon’s have earned nothing but the title of EX-OWNERS. Its up to real Met fans to give them the boot.
all you say is true…wilpons are obviously in it for themselves and earn a big buck off a sports team that people look at more than a sports team but really family, passion and lifestyle. Wilpons will obviously get it coming to them but i look at it as the players are the ones who win ball games not front office. Wilpons trenched us with the curse of Omar Minaya and Omar just looked out to infect us with horrible contracts and made the mets from the New York Mets to really the Mets De Nueva York and let his so called “hispanic pride” get in the way of a consistent contending team. But we have to be realistic, alot of us wanted these guys minaya got for us but not for long term (beltran, delgado, martinez, santana, etc). I know the Wilpons are the reason for not spending money on fixing Shea, cramming the brooklyn dodgers down our throats as mets fan with a “jackie robinson rotunda instead of the Willam Shea rotunda, not spending on players we need/want, not keeping Piazza until retirement, putting us in debt and so on so fourth. Only time we kept our mouth shut on the wilpons is in 2006 when we could have gone all the way but ultimately beltran failed and ever since then we havent even sniffed the playoffs (hell even getting swept in the NLDS looks amazing compared to how we are now). But you know why i rarely talk about the wilpons? because im not a wilpon fan and more sooner than later Selig will come to find out that theres a thin line between business and friendship. I only stay positive because i love my mets regardless of whos in it because ever since my eyes stumbled on shea when i was on the passenger seat in my fathers car with my dad on the Grand Central Parkway, I fell in love and that was all i can do, fall in love but something i cant do or any fan can do is control what goes on behind the mets curtains, all we can do is cheer, believe, hope and support the team we were raised to love. Now because im such a positive guy I’ll finish this on one note, at least we’re not the astros.
Jim, i must say, you’re very optimistic is all i can say… although over under for wins of this team is 69…. yikes…
One thing I’d change…. Mejia wont be the first call up in case of injury since he wont be ready for the start of 2012. It’ll probably Harvey or Familia, depending on who is having the better season at the time.