Dec
21
2011

Who’s To Blame? Baseball America or The System?

An article by Jessep

With the current direction of the NY Mets, it seems there has been a lot of talk here about how much weight to put into Baseball America’s Prospect Rankings.

First, let me explain what BA actually does with regards to these rankings to avoid any assumptions. From their own website,

“Our prospect ratings are based on our own research and conversations with scouts, managers, instructors, front-office personnel and others in the game. Obviously all of that input is very important, but we make the final determination about where players fit on our various lists. We pay the most attention to a player’s long-term potential, and his chances of reaching that potential. A pitcher who could be a No. 1 starter usually rates higher than a guy who’s seen as a No. 4 starter, for instance, even if the second player has performed better in the minors. Others who rate prospects often pay more attention to a player’s present value—what he can do for an organization right away. That’s why even players who haven’t lived up to expectations yet can be so high in our prospect ratings. Based on their ability and potential, if they put it all together they could be major league stars. Another thing to pay attention to is a player’s age. A 19-year-old who’s putting up decent numbers in Triple-A is much more impressive than a 22-year-old who’s tearing up a Class A league.”

Second, let me make it clear that I don’t know a single person who thinks everything written in Baseball America should be chiseled in stone and placed outside every minor league ballpark. At the end of the day, these players are still human beings. A lot can change for good or for bad in terms of their potential to reach the Major Leagues. I firmly believe there is a huge risk in projecting any minor league player’s ceiling.

For example, if you put a gun to my head, I’d say it’s more likely that Zach Wheeler becomes a late inning reliever rather than a dominant starter. But who knows? I actually am not a huge fan of stockpiling prospects, but I understand that given the financial situation and the lack of organizational depth, that now is the time to give it a try.

Baseball America gives us a general idea of what is going on in the bus leagues. Do I think that when Sandy Alderson was offering Beltran he used Baseball America as his basis for wanting Zach Wheeler? Absolutely not. However, I think BA helps us the fan understand maybe what is going on behind closed doors.

You often hear that the hardest thing to do in sports is to hit a baseball right? If that is true, then the 2^nd hardest thing is probably making it to the big leagues, and predicting who can have a legitimate MLB career. I think sometimes people forget not only how hard it is to get to the big leagues, but how hard it is to keep a job there for even just a few years.

Often times it seems as though an angry Mets fan may place some of the blame on the publication. So I decided to do a little experiment without having any clue of what the results would end up looking like.

I took each National League’s Top 10 Rankings in 1997, then 1999-2007. The reason for skipping 1998 was, I spent too much time trying to find that list, and since MMO doesn’t pay me, I couldn’t subscribe on the longshot that the archive was saved. Every other year was documented, which is odd. I assumed 2007 was a fair stopping point since some of those players listed in 2008-today are likely still in the Minors or just starting out.

I then did a name recognition test. Basically, if I knew their name that means they had a recognizable career which to me is tough to predict as it is. To verify, I ensured they played enough games to be considered on this list.

So from 1999-2007, that is 90 slots per team. Then add in 1997, and you’ve got a pool of 100 slots.

Here are the results:

Arizona: 43 out of 100
Atlanta: 45 out of 100
Chicago: 26 out of 100
Cincinnati: 29 out of 100
Colorado: 43 out of 100
Florida: 40 out of 100
Houston: 32 out of 100
Los Angeles: 29 out of 100
Milwaukee: 25 out of 100
Philadelphia: 40 out of 100
Pittsburgh: 36 out of 100
San Diego: 29 out of 100
San Francisco: 27 out of 100
St. Louis: 26 out of 100
Washington (includes Montreal): 31 out of 100
NY Mets: 25 out of 100

The average NL team has had 32.8 slots filled out of 100 of players who have had a legitimate MLB career. The Mets, along with Milwaukee finish dead last in the NL with 25 each.

The Mets that made the cut were: Jay Payton, Terrence Long (2), Preston Wilson, Octavio Dotel (2), Timo Perez, Aaron Heilman (2), Jose Reyes (2), David Wright (3), Scott Kazmir (2), Lastings Milledge (3), Matt Lindstrom, Mike Jacobs, Carlos Gomez (2), Mike Pelfrey, and Jon Niese.

I’d say I was more than fair with this list, wouldn’t you?

For comparison sake here is the list for Milwaukee: Geoff Jenkins, Ronnie Belliard (2), Ben Sheets (2), Bill Hall, JJ Hardy (4), Prince Fielder (4), Corey Hart (4), Rickie Weeks (2), Ryan Braun (2), Yovani Gallardo (2), and Nelson Cruz.

Which list would you rather have?

For further comparison here lets quickly look at 2 of the top teams, Atlanta and Philadelphia who have a combined 85 of possible 200 spots filled with big leaguers.

Atlanta’s list of 45: Andruw Jones, Bruce Chen (2), Wes Helms (3), Jason Marquis (4), Ronnie Belliard, Odalis Perez , Rafael Furcal (2), Marcus Giles (3), Wilson Betemit (3), Matt Belisle (2), Adam Wainwright (4), Kelly Johnson (2), Jeff Francoeur (3), Adam LaRoche, Brian McCann (2), Jarrod Saltlamacchia (3), Elvis Andrus (2), Yunel Escobar (2), Joey Devine (2), Chuck James, and Matt Harrison.

Philadelphia’s list of 40: Scott Rolen, Marlon Anderson (3), Adam Eaton, Pat Burrell (2), Randy Wolf, Brett Myers (3), Jimmy Rollins (2), Derrick Turnbow, Ryan Madson (4), Chase Utley (3), Marlon Byrd (3), Carlos Silva, Gavin Floyd (3), Cole Hamels (4),
Ryan Howard (3), Michael Bourn (4), and JA Happ.

One extreme difference you may notice is that they both seemed to have several players listed in their Top 10 multiple times. Of the 21 players in Atlanta, 6 of them did NOT get on their Top 10 more than once. Of the 17 Phillies, 11 of them appeared more than once with several appearing 3 or even 4 times.

Of the 15 Mets, 8 of them appeared more than once. That’s 53% of Mets, and 71% of Braves. That raises a red flag that perhaps the Mets players are being rushed up, doesn’t it?

So rather than pass full blame on Baseball America for their record of Mets prospects, perhaps we need to look a little deeper. You have to assume a small percentage of success and failure is based on luck, right? Getting that out of the way, what else is there?

Maybe if we start to question why the Mets are seemingly the worst NL Team at turning so-called prospects into quality big leaguers, we’ll find a better road map to the future for this franchise, rather than blaming a list?

I doubt you’ll often hear Braves, Diamondback, Rockies, Marlins, or Phillies fans complain about the accuracy of the prospects listed with their team, is Baseball America just better at predicting their minor leaguers or are they doing something different that teams like the Mets, Brewers, and Giants should be looking more closely at?

Maybe it’s both, but based on these results, there is no way you can tell me it’s all Baseball America’s fault.

About the Author: Michael J. Branda

My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.

13 Comments + Add Comment

Donal December 21, 2011 at 9:45 am

Personally, I prefer to #blameBeltran
- jessep December 21, 2011 at 10:29 am
  
  thanks Donal, that wraps up a nights worth of research nicely haha
srt December 21, 2011 at 11:15 am

So this research goes back to 1999?

I’d say luck aside, there has to be credence to the fact that compared with the other teams you did research on, we’re lagging here. Question is….is anyone affiliated with the Mets smart enough to be doing the same type of analysis and looking for improvement?

Sigh……
- jessep December 21, 2011 at 11:32 am
  
  srt: The research actually goes to 1997. It’s 1997, then 99 through 2007. I had trouble finding the 1998 rankings, and wanted to base it on 100 prospects per team.
  
  I think you got my point. I’m not suggesting BA is always right, but why are they so much better at predicting some teams and other teams they fail at? To be the WORST NL Team in quality of Top 10′s over 10 years says something more to me than “Baseball America is wrong.”
  - srt December 21, 2011 at 12:00 pm
    
    Thanks for the update in that you looked at 1997, then 1999 and on.
    
    So this goes back further than just the Wilpons sole ownership and Omar at the helm. I find that very interesting, considering so many comments at this sight lately have done nothing but debate Omar vs. Sandy as if either/or are solely responsible for the current state of the Mets. Then again, I’m not sure who how much turnover there has been in player development and scouts over the past 15 years. I’ll be honest in saying I never paid much attention until the Bernazard debacle.
    - t agee December 21, 2011 at 1:31 pm
      
      SRT,
      
      The Met’s results with prospects takes a complete 180 degree turn coinciding with the Wilpon’s becoming full partners in Nov. 1986.
      
      Everyone is aware of how big a role was played by scouting, drafting and developing the mid 80′s championship team but after that the following are the best players who made their debut with the Mets over a 25 year period.
      
      Catcher: Todd Hundley Vance Wilson Alberto Castillo
      
      1B Ike Davis Daniel Murphy Mike Jacobs
      
      2B Edgardo Alfonzo Marco Scutero Fernando Vina
      
      SS Jose Reyes Rey Ordonez Jeff Keppinger
      
      3B David Wright Ty Wiggenton none
      
      LF Terrence Long Benny Agbayani Jayson Tyner
      
      CF Jay Payton Preston Wilson Carlos Gomez
      
      RF Jeremy Burnitz Alex Ochoa Butch Huskey
      
      SP Bobby Jones Pete Schrouk Mike Pelfrey
      
      RP Octavio Dotel Heath Bell Jason Isringhausen
      
      Total of 19 All Star seasons 13 of them for us.
      
      In addition Gerry Hunsiker was the Met Farm director from 1988 -91. Steve Phillips was the Met farm director from 1991 until 1995 (During the unfortunate disintegration of Generation K) and Jack Z (current Seattle GM) from 96- 98. Duquette 1999 – 2000. Guy Conti 2001 – 2004 Tony Tijerina 2005-2007. Luis Aquayo 2007-2009. Terry Collins 2010.
t agee December 21, 2011 at 11:41 am

That was a very well researched and timely article Jessep.

I find it very weird that people who are impressionable enough to quote an opinion on a baseball matter from a media source like Mike Francesca, Evan Roberts, Michael Kay or even John Sterling would take issue with a very reputable source like Baseball America.

Baseball America is really more like a trade magazine dedicated to covering the industry of baseball all across the nation, and elsewhere, not just a bunch of talking heads from a relatively small geographic area concerned with just the Major Leagues.

In a business in which industry professionals who hit on three good amateur signings a year are at the top of the leaderboard being able to rank the top 10 even 25% is pretty damn good plus the fact that one organization’s # 8 may very well be another organizations # 18.

The BA list I most enjoy is their top 20 in each of the minor leagues. That’s the one which puts rankings into the context of performance relative to the prospects their competing against.

I think that your research points out overall how poorly we have done is the area of prospect development. Obviously giving away so many top draft choices ( 7 1st rnd, 5 2nd rnd, and 3 3rd rnd since 1991) through the years has certainly hindered our ability to pick up potential high impact amateurs and the way they get rushed up here to “fill holes” has a big effect on the development of the few we have drafted or signed.

Case in point is Jose Reyes himself. 2002 he starts out the season in Pt. St. Lucie (A+) as an 18 year old. 14 months later he’s in the Majors. Did he have the talent at 19 to be in the Majors? Hell yeah. Did he have any glaring deficincies when he got up here? Not really but were there things that he could have refined and improved upon and developed even more so with a slower ascent? Absolutely. .269/.333/.356 in AAA is not exactly screaming promotion even for a SS, especially a 19 year old one and the crown jewel of the organization.

What was the rush? I’m convinced it was business reasons, not baseball reasons. I’m quite sure it was partly due to the thinking Reyes could be one of those very rare players that are in the Majors as teenagers and into there 40′s which seemed like a good idea to the Met decision makers and the need to clean the stench from Steve Phillips latest version of the worst team money could buy being the primary motivator.

The following year it was deemed to be a good idea for the crown jewel to learn 2B in the Majors.

The question that really needs to be asked is would you prefer Jose Reyes 20 and 21 year old season or his 28 and 29 year old season?

Same can be said of Pelfrey and Kunz. Both of them up here in their first professional season.

2010 saw us bring up 20 year olds Jenry Mejia and Ruben Tejada. Mejia was instructed by Jerry Manuel to only throw one pitch, his cutter. Forget about anything else and for what? To pitch the 6th inning in blowouts? Tejada’s hands were being knocked off the bat and he hadn’t learned to lay off the high strike, a pitch he wasn’t able to get on top of or able to do anything with when not getting on top of and again you have to ask yourself, would you prefer to have Mejia and Tejada’s 20 year old season or their 27 year old season?

There was one reason and one reason only why these guys were up here. There was no one else. The lack of prospects in the system actually has inhibited our ability to develop the few we do have.

Why was Murphy given the starting LF job on a team hoping to win it all? No one else. Why is Thole the starting catcher? No one else. Why is Duda the RFer? No one else. Why do we have to import 5 bullpen arms every year? No one else.

All of this really begs the question of whether this was a team that really should have been giving other teams their best draft choices every year. I mean how could it be? There just isn’t a guy ready to fill a spot for you ever and even when there is they are frequently asked to learn a new position.

I thought that was something you did in the minors.

The following year
Metsie December 21, 2011 at 12:03 pm

Knew something like this was coming…well one BIG fact you left out of your research…

What was the record of the teams who had the most prospects over that period of time?

Teams who lost a lot will always have more PROSPECTS on BA’s list because they get the top picks in every draft and since BA stated that performance is not the key but PROMISE is, that just puts anyone drafted at the top of the 1st round immediatly on the list (AS Nimmo has with us) because if he does EVERYTHING expected of him at the time he was picked in the top of the first round he will be the best player!

This list is based on PROMISE and all SCOUTS being correct! Not how those guys actually do or what they have done. That on;ly comes into play after they have failed to remove them off the list!

So basically any team who has a bad record over the last 10 years will by the parameters used have the most top prospects on BA’s list over that period of time! Because they will pick high and get the most PROMISING HIGH POTENTIAL players.
And the only thing that would change that advantage is blowing the pick or failing to sign that pick. The Exceptions (ie Atl) have to do with them making trades for some of those names on BA’s list!

And you seem to miss the main point about the BA lists, it’s not about who they call top 100 PER TEAM it is the top 100 of ALL rookies you guys use to trash our current MiL system.

How many of those Rookies that get listed actually make the team you credit with having them?
How many were actually drafted by the team and how many were traded?

As usual with your research it is the info you don’t include that explains WHY the numbers you present are the way they are!

You hide them because if you show them you see that the reason they have the numbers they do is either due to losing wholesale to acquire them or via trades which have nothing to do with how well they draft themselves but how well they trade their bigger names to get those guys who are listed!
- Metsie December 21, 2011 at 12:05 pm
  
  OH and I forgot to note that BA’s list of EVERY TEAM still has an under 50% success rate doesn’t it?
  
  not one team had above 51 prospects out of 100!
  
  It’s a coin flip dude you just refuse to admit it!
  - t agee December 21, 2011 at 1:44 pm
    
    That’s really due more to having to come up with 10 for every team. That’s 300 guys every year when there are only 750 jobs total, most of which aren’t open and some of those that are, are filled with current Major Leaguers.
    
    Or do you believe that there are 300 job openings in Major League baseball every year?
    
    Don’t forget either that the Astros 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th best prospect may not even be a part of a true 300 top prospect list and yet are there because each team automatically gets 10.
    
    The better list to look at is the top 100 (no limits – a team could have 5, 10, 15, 20 or none at all) That type of a list has a far bigger success ratio than the team top 10.
    
    The list I prefer is the top 20 in each of the 13 minor leagues. That one is the most relevant in my opinion. Best 20 out of about 700.
SaltyGary December 21, 2011 at 2:59 pm

Below is how the Mets have fared since ’97. If you base it on just record and prospect projections, the Mets should probably of had a lot better talent. A team like the Yankees has had much more talent make it to the ML and they have one of the best records each year. It’s not just about where you pick, much of It is how much resources a team will put into scouting and development will a dash of luck. KC and Pitt have had a ton of picks but how many of those have been great? Not many off the top of my head. The Mets historically have been more focused on ML ready talent and this prospect list is a result of that. That is fine as long as you can maintain a high payroll and trade off A, AA talent that has hype but is still unproven. When Omar came in he did add better development into the Caribbean but not much has come out of it. Now the Mets need those kids to play and unfortunately there are not enough really talented ones. And now Mets nation has to pray that Wheeler, Familia and Harvey aren’t the next “Mets Big 3″.

NYM Record vs all 30 teams
2011 19th place…
2010 20
2009 25
2008 7
2007 10
2006 2
2005 11
2004 22
2003 27
2002 19
2001 15
2000 5
1999 6
1998 9
1997 7
vinnie papandrea December 22, 2011 at 10:02 am

On the Braves list who outside of McCann or Wainwright(who didn’t Pitch for them) is someone you’d rather have over Wright and Reyes
Removalists Williamstown December 27, 2011 at 12:43 am

Appreciating the persistence you put into your blog and in depth information you offer. It’s good to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same outdated rehashed material. Wonderful read! I’ve bookmarked your site and I’m including your RSS feeds to my Google account.

NL East Standings

Team	W	L	Pct.	GB
Braves	42	30	.583	-
Phillies	35	37	.486	7.0
Nationals	34	36	.486	7.0
Mets	27	40	.403	12.5
Marlins	22	48	.314	19.0

Last updated: 06/19/2013

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