2
2011
Seeing A Large Market Team Unable To Hang Onto Their Homegrown Stars Is Deflating
An article by 
Andy Martino of the Daily News believes that there will be no shortage of David Wright rumors this hot stove season.
After speaking with various NL executives as well as team sources, Martino comes up with three things to keep in mind:
* No matter what happens with Jose Reyes this winter, it is highly unlikely that Wright will be traded before spring training. “(Sandy Alderson) would have to totally be bowled over (with an offer),” said one National League exec who has spoken with Alderson. When an opposing general manager calls Alderson about Wright, the Mets GM will not say, “please, just stop talking,” but he will be strongly disinclined to deal.
* Wondering if Wright, who will be 29 in December, might sign a contract extension if Reyes departs? Not happening. Sources close to Wright’s camp say that agents Seth and Sam Levinson do not plan to reach out to the Mets this winter, and people close to the team predict Wright’s contract will remain “status quo” (he has one more guaranteed year, followed by a club option).
* Here is where it might get interesting. If the Mets struggle in the early months of the 2012 season, there is a strong chance they could become more aggressive about shopping Wright, according to NL executives briefed on their thinking. That is when the rumors might change from silly to serious.
As Wright embarks on the final guaranteed year of his contract, I wouldn’t be shocked if he posts his best season ever – much like we saw Reyes do in his walk year. The changes to Citi Field are tailor-made for Wright to start mashing the ball as he did his last two years at Shea.
If his value skyrockets come July, you can bet the temptation to trade him will loom large with Sandy Alderson. Though he opted to keep Reyes during the 2011 trade deadline, the likely result is he’ll have only two draft picks in exchange for the NL’s top hitter who at 28 is entering the prime of his career.
I don’t see Alderson having another homegrown star in his prime simply walk away into free agency like Reyes, and only having just one or two draft picks to show for him. And while Wright does have that 2013 team option, if a team does bowl Alderson over with an offer, he won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
That said, most major league teams strive for the rare opportunity to develop star quality players like Jose Reyes and David Wright. This is the dream, this is the hope, this is what it’s all about… These are the players you build around and keep…
Former Met starter Al Leiter, who is now one of the best baseball analysts in the game, knows exactly what I’m talking about.
“Any time you have a great cornerstone player and let them become a free agent, that’s the risk you take,” Leiter said. “To me, it’s a red flag.”
To see a large market team unable to hang onto their own homegrown stars is quite deflating. It may be decades before we ever see the Mets develop two core players like Reyes and Wright again. Once they are gone, all we’ll have to show for them are about two dozen franchise records,
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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I don’t think it is “deflating” when a team starts to use its “head” in making decisions regarding players and contracts. It is much better than throwing money around and handing out stupid contracts to sign players. Perhaps the team now has a long-term plan to spend money wisely rather than sign contracts for players that will be shadows of their former selves for the last 2-3 years of signing.
Seaver, Straw and Cone=deflating.
28 and 29 are not “Shadows”, they are suppossed to be their BEST prime years. 35 on might be shadows. We should keep both.
Joe – Thank you for the wake-up call. All too often, we take for granted ball players like Wright & Reyes. Their success is, in many ways, the epitome of any organization’s pride & joy. Losing one of them raises a huge red flag, as Leiter so aptly stated.
If we do not retain Jose Reyes, the pain of his absence will be felt once the novelty wears off and we realize that he’s going to perform at a high rate for the next 4-to-5 years. He’s truly grown fully into his potential and, with Tejada as a ready-made back-up, one wonders how Reyes’ departure ever formulated into an idea, let alone a reality.
In defense of Alderson, we look back on Reyes’ 2011 season in retrospect. At the outset of the season, no one knew whether he would last a full season. He almost did not. So, Alderson did not have enough information relevant to Reyes’ health status upon which to formulate longterm contract.
When viewed in this context, Reyes camp is right to allow the market to set his value and then to see whether the Mets can make an offer that makes sense within those parameters. I believe that Reyes wants to remain a Met. I think that he believes that our glass is more than half-full, with the groundswell of pitching and homegrown talent beginning to emerge.
I still remain optimistic that Jose Reyes will re-sign with the Mets.
i’m all for trading wright for pitching, but for the right reason, to compete. unfortunately, the way wright has been talked about is for money reasons, and as a new york mets fans, is not only deflating but right down pathetic. i mean, why can’t these owners be forced to sell just like with the dodgers situation??
Because the Dodgers owner McCourt used team finances to live large with,Yachts,mansion,exotic cars,etc…The Wilpons are considered victims of the Madoff ponzi scheme even though we pretty much feel they weren’t vitims,more like winners throughout the years.Different situations.Plus Selig and Wilpon have been close friends for 30 years.The only way to force the Wilpons to sell is by stop going to games,plain and simple.
If the Mets retain Jose Reyes, do not be surprised if Pagan and Pelfrey are non-tendered. Collectively, Pagan and Pelfrey would cost about 10 mil in arbitration awards, which would create some breathing room for Alderson to work Reyes’ contract.
Another consideration is to craft the contract with incentive clauses and backload payments. It will be like Christmas when Santana and Bay come off the books.
So, there you have it. We can obtain some immediate relief by non-tendering Pagan and Pelfrey and some relief in one and two years through the expiration of Bay and Santana’s contracts, respectively.
Retaining Reyes (and Wright, for that matter) is worth pulling those strings.
tommy,
pagan and pelfrey should be non tendered whether reyes sign or not. pagan will be too expensive to be a 4th OF and pelfrey sucks. enough said.
Pelfrey sucks? He’s above the Alderson Line!!! lol
They’ll both be tendered contracts, as there is nothing in the open market that will get you the same production for the cost. Yes, I can’t stand Pelfrey, but 5 Million for a pitcher who stays healthy is about average these days. As for Pagan, again, there is nothing out there on the market that won’t cost about the same for Pagan for less production. Better the devil you know, I guess.
Pagan, I’m iffy on, he’ll never match his 2010 performance at the plate, but he should be a much better fielder than what he was last year. If his D rebounds, then he’ll be a decent player. At the same time, I’d almost rather see Pride play than Pagan, at least Pride is smart and you’ll know what he brings to the table and he can easily be benched if we Kirk proves he’s ready for the show mid season.
Pelf should be gone. I’d rather resign Cappy for half the money and get the same performance. The only difference Cappy brings is he’ll keep them in the game until the 5th inning before giving up 3 runs. Pelf gives up all those runs in the first two innings and completely deflates the moral of the team.
If only Pridie didn’t hit like he was swinging a wet noodle.
Cappy is getting a 2 year deal somewhere at prob 4+ per. I guess I would do that, but Cappy wasn’t all that much better than Pelf and pitched about as deep into the game as well. 6 of one there, i guess.
I want to believe that Pridie could hit better given regular playing time. TC seemed to go weeks between AB’s for him. (or he could do worse too…)
I’m really just sick of watching Angel “if I only had a brain” Pagan and Mike “All I need is a little Courage” Pelfery consistently blow games.
I’m with you. If there were viable options to replace them with, I’d be for it. And if you drop Pagan, you have absolutely no backup to Pridie (unless you count bay. Rough situation these Mets are in…
In hindsight, the Mets should never have been in this situation, watching a good homegrown player like Reyes about to walk via FA. Same with Wright.
In hindsight, Wilpons should have never given Omar that extension just weeks before that ’08 poor finish, especially after the collapse of ’07. With another GM, things might have looked much different right about now. Then again, without the Madoff hit to the Wilpons finances, one could say the same thing.
SRT,
my exact same thoughts, not only he was awarded an extension but then he started the 2008-2009 offseason by signing alex cora to 2 million, then acquiring putz with a bum shoulder and the worst signing in the history of the new york mets of oliver pereZ. but again, sandy had a chance to get him extended here, but he wanted to “evaluate” things, and now, we might lose the best all around player in the history of our franchise.
I wanted them to offer an extension last year as well. All in all, had he accepted, would have been much cheaper. Was a lesser Risk/Reward than the contract Reyes will sign this year with someone.
Oh well, hindsight is always mad dog 20/20.
stuckin, yeah,.. at this point is more of “what if” or “should’ve, would’ve and could’ve” than reality. imo, reyes is a goner, and shortly after that, look for a jesseP article about why it was the right move, or one for craig saying alderson is a genious for doing this… ugh
How can you blame him for a wait and see approach? Reyes again in 2010 was on the DL twice with 2 different rib cage pulls and he didn’t have all that good a year.His OB% was a putrid 321 which for a leadoff hitter is awful.He made Reyes play for his contract which he did but at the same token he missed 36 games in the best season of his career,so as great as Reyes is he has only averaged 95 games played the last 3 years.Signing him was not as cut and dry as people make it seem.The Yankees never extend a player before their contract expires,not even with Jeter and Berne Williams.They end up paying more but it they make their players earn their contracts.
He waited and saw for a year!
How much time does this guy need to determine the guy is worth keeping?
5 years?
He will see them alright! In someone else’s roster!
He tried to talk midseason and Reyes said he won’t talk contract until after the season.Not long after Jose hit the DL for the 1st of 2 DL stints which has become the norm for Jose.
I can’t blame Alderson for not trying to blow him away with an offer since we all know Jose want to test the Market.If Jose really wanted to stay he would’ve at least listened to what the Mets had to say.He chose not to and got hurt twice.
And Reyes tried to talk BEFORE the season and Sandy refused!
So Sandy was the first one and the LAST one to refuse!
Reyes had good reason not to negotiate during the season it would have distracted him from playing baseball and if that happened and Sandy showed he would not offer fair value it could have affected Reyes’ numbers and he would have lost MORE Money from someone who WOULD make a fair offer!
Because he wasn’t focused on playing baseball whikle he was too busy playing ames with the GM whio says he wants him but STILL won’t make an offer to him!
even AFTER the season is over when it can no longer hurt Reyes Numbers!
When has Sandy refused a 2nd time? That’s just a typical assumption on your part because he hasn’t made an offer yet.
I’m so glad to see another POV on the Mets that doesnt constantly shill for the Wilpons and the front office like Metsblog does day in and day out. I cant hardly read Cerrone’s opinions anymore.
Your title says it all and it totally sucks as a diehard fan to see the team in this position. I hope you’re wrong and we keep both Reyes and Wright. I just hope this doesnt happen.
mookie, cerrone is a dbag, and now that he gets 10 seconds on tv is even worst. the constant butt licking of the mets and the front office on that blog is pathetic to say the least. before it was tolerant, now it got worst.
So, not spending money is more deflating than being a laughing stock.
Ya, The Mets are a large market team. Too bad that hasn’t made them a winning team.
well donal, we are NOT spending, and we are still a laughing stock.cheap players can still suck too.but i guess it’s better to be small market and suck then big market and suck.
Or, it’s better to stop doing something that is so obviously failing. Something that not only has not helped the Mets win, but hurt their chances of winning in the future.
Maybe, just maybe, we have to accept the fact that prolonged success is going to take a little time to establish. It worked for the Yankees under Gene Michael and the Red Sox under Dan Duquette.
So developing players like Reyes and Wright and keeping them is why you think the Mets failed and would continue to fail?
What’s the purpose of hoarding draft picks if you cant keep the one or two great ones that become top caliber players?
Sorry, but I can’t see the logic in that kind of a strategy.
“So developing players like Reyes and Wright and keeping them is why you think the Mets failed and would continue to fail?”
No, spend first, ask questions later. That is why we are in this spot. Maybe if we had been smarter with the money prior to this, we would be able to risk a long term deal with Reyes more easily.
“What’s the purpose of hoarding draft picks if you cant keep the one or two great ones that become top caliber players?”
No one as said that. The whole reason I don’t like using Free Agency as Plan A is because it leads to that problem.
It would be a lot easier to justify locking up Reyes long term if we weren’t seeing Jason Bay everyday, a depleted farm system that can’t produce starting players, and most important of all CONSISTENT LOSING!
Re-signing your own players, especially the ones that are the best at their position, is not the same as signing Free Agents. The Mets do not lose any draft picks by keeping Reyes. Also, to think that 2 sandwich picks who may not ever make the majors is adequate compensation for a 28 year old batting champion who plays a high-demand position, just doesn’t compute with me. We are not talking about bowling over Pagan with a mega-offer. This is Jose Reyes we’re talking about.
Yes, this a 28 year old speedster with leg problems. On a team not ready to be legit contenders yet.
A batting champ (as if there aren’t one hit wonders in that category) who has a BABIP 40 points higher than his career average, a BA 37 points higher than his best full year, who had over the last 2 months of the season 9 extra base hits.
Pardon me if I see a reason not to break the bank there.
Yeah you wouldn’t just every PROFESSIONAL in the MLB not named Slashy Alderson thinks there is reason to do it!
Because they know good players when they see them and know Money spent on reyes pays for itself in attendance and Wins!
And when Reyes is gone and we win FEWER games who do you think will be the one with Eggs all over his face!
Slashy and Duncel!
The Mets have seen drops in attendance and wins, even with a brand new stadium.
So, ya, there goes that idea.
Yeah because our biggest signings last year was TWO guys who were coming off Surgery, had a 4.0+ ERA and one of them pitched a total of 4 games for us at 4 times the price per game than Crawford!
Chris Young got 500K per game played!
Crawford got around 118K per game played!
We didn’t draw because we didn’t sign anyone who gave the fans hope that we kight be trying to win!
All we did was get rid of the few guys that DID help us before July ended!
No, attendance has been in a downward trend because of the losing. Unfortunately, if you want to get to sustained winning, you’ll have to deal with what we’ve been dealing with for a few years now.
May .519 Win pct
June .593 Win Pct
July .519 Win Pct
Trades for K-Rod and Beltran
August .385 Win Pct!
September .429 Win Pct!
What caused the losing again?
What caused reduced attendance?
Lets see….
Average Attendance before July 31st 31,834
Average Attendance after? 29,593!
Who made the trades that lowered attendance again?
Somehow Metsie thinks there’s only 3 months in a major league season.May,June and July.Do the other months not count anymore?
Metsie also believes that the previous 2 losing seasons on top of 2 more disappointing seasons didn’t lead to decreased attendance.
It didn’t lead to decreased attandance in 2006 did it Donal?
And Joe the reason why those months are significant is because SANDY CAUSED the last two months of losing by trading away his two most successful players not named Jose Reyes who he is working on getting rid of now!
Sandy caused the losing in August and September!
If he hadn’t they would have had one lousy month instead of 3!
But god forbid you hold Slashy Accountable for the collapse!
Agreed. I want to see Reyes back with this team, but not when it would hamstring (pun intended) this team for years to come. Save the cash for quality BP guys and have the flexibility for next years FA market.
What bout signing Reyes hamstrings this club in years to come?
Who you buying with that money?
Name Names here because you can’t say you HAVE plans for money we have no intentions on spending in the next three years!
Bell or Capps or even Nathan over Broxton,
Frank Francisco vs. DJ Carrasco
Signing Aardsma vs. relying on Beato.
Those are examples of spending an extra Million here and there vs. having to go lean to keep it within the budget.
The farm system isn’t depleted.
When you produce 2 legitimate starting players over 6 years, yes, it is depleted.
When you say “six years” your skewing everything. Because your judging 18 year olds who were drafted or signed 1 or 2 years ago – How can you expect an 18 year old drafted in 2010 to be a legitimate major league starter in ONE YEAR?
It’s very unfair.
How do you know if any kids from 07-10 years can become major league starters in a few years? Your saying they can’t be major league starters already, and some of them aren’t even 20 yet.
6 years. 2 guys. None of what you said changes that.
That’s not even right anyway – Ike, Duda, tejada, Murhpy, Niese, and Gee – That’s more than two.
And anyway we are talking about the minor league system NOW…..so I’m taling about Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, Mejia, Flores, ect.
And my point was with that post is your skewing everything when you say it was six years – So yes, it does change what you said because in a few years that can change, and it most likely will change.
Count again!
Six Years Six Guys!
Avoiding that fact doesn’t get rid of it as a fact!
They are not major league caliber starters. Promoting your own guys does not mean they are ready to be promoted. We’ll call this Pelfrey’s Law.
They most CERTAINLY ARE!
And your guaranteeing that by letting Reyes go!
They are FAR MORE MLB starters than Nimmo or Wheeler are!
And far more than any kid you intend on getting in the next 5 years!
The Mets have FOUR really good young pitchers in the minors……and there’s no way the Mets farm system is “depleted” when you have guys like Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, and Mejia in the minors.
Read this:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111006&content_id=25528362&vkey=news_nym&c_id=nym
“The Mets are trying to take the whole “You can never have enough pitching” thing seriously these days.
It’s not that the Mets’ Top 10 at the end of the season was too pitching-heavy. In fact, seven of the top 10 are position players. But the top three are all high-end arms, giving New York a lot of hope for a future rotation.
That starts with Wheeler and 2010 first-round pick Matt Harvey, who made it to Double-A in his first full season. No. 3 prospect Jeurys Familia also had a fantastic 2011 campaign, spending most of the year in Double-A at age 21. Throw in Jennry Mejia, no longer a prospect but still a very young pitcher who was throwing well before an injury, and the Mets have the potential for something special.
“We’ve been at this long enough and know we’re probably not going to go 4-for-4,” DePodesta said. “That’s just the reality we deal with in this game. But we are getting to the point now, those are four pretty good young arms with significant upside.”
“We’re increasing the size of the basket of players. If we have enough of them, if we get to critical mass, some of them are going to be what we think they are going to be. Some may even exceed those expectations. I think we’re making strides.”
And there’s more on the way. A number of young Latin American pitchers came to the United States this summer, and the Mets picked up a bunch of arms in the Draft, adding depth to a system that sorely needed it.”
“You’re looking at that basket of players, in this case pitchers, it’s easy to get excited,” DePodesta said. “You always like your own guys. We’re excited about the group, and I’m excited to see how it plays out and which guys really rise up and grab the opportunity that’s in front of them.”
Depleted farm system? I don’t think so….
Nifty, what do you think those pitchers (one of whom we tried to cripple last year) will hit?
I like how when I tell people to be patient, I get personally attacked and insulted, but somehow we aren’t supposed to see any gleams of hope with a system that should have started being fixed in 2005.
After reading that, i’d say the Mets minor league system is fixed.
I’ not saying it’s the best minor league system or anything, but it’s not depleted.
Your idea of being pateint is a 10 year wait and see!
Thats the problem with your PATIENT (as in Asylum) Approach!!
Lets count like on Sesame street so you can follow!
Ike Davis – One! One Legitimate starting player
Reuben Tejada – Two! Two legitimate starting players
Lucas Duda – Three! Three legitimate starting players!
Jon Niese – Four! Four Legitimate Starting players!
Dillon Gee – FIVE! Five legitimate starting players!
Daniel Murphy – SIX! Six legitimate starting players!
WOW we not only produced TWO players in 5 years we produced ONE PER YEAR of Omar’s tenure!
And I didn’t even include Pelfrey who as Slashy says is “ABOVE THE LINE!”
Davis and Niese. That is it. Duda and Murphy have no real position, Gee is a utility pitcher and Tejada is going to be a back up middle infielder
Davis and Niese. That is it. Duda and Murphy have no real position, Gee is a utility pitcher and Tejada is going to be a back up middle infielder”
LMAO, WOW.. are you even a mets fans??? jeez…
You don’t know for sure that Tejada is going to be a backup MI – that’s just your opinion, it’s not a fact.
What is a fact it that he was 21 last year, and played pretty good baseball.
Whose your starting SS if Reyes goes the way you want it to?
Whose your 2B if you don’t get what you want and Reyes Stays?
Who is your 3B when Wright gets traded?
Who is your 2B if reyes goes and Tejada takes over SS?
No regular position you say but if we do what you support they most CERTAINLY will!
Unless you think Sandy is going to NOT listen to you and SPEND to fill those spots!
“You don’t know for sure that Tejada is going to be a backup MI ”
He’s not Vinny thats just it!
Tejada is going to be our starting SS after Donal gets his way on letting Reyes go!
Murphy is going to be the 2B!
Duda already is our everyday RFer
And when Wright gets traded midway next year then Murphy will be our 3B, Turner our 2B and we will have 7 guys from our minors in the last 6 years!
Jessup, Now add harvey, Familia, Havens, Flores, Mejia to the Mets list!
Still yopu try and say the MiL is barren!
We have NO homegrowns!
Tejada is 21!
Ike is almost as good as Howard! Better fielder even!
And what you fail to see is if you keep Reyes you can trade the Murphy’s and Turners for something else you Do need which is what you guys keep saying is the reason to go hoard kids with picks isn’t it?
Jeesep, we are going by who was DRAFTED or SIGNED in in those years….there’s a difference between haveing a breakout year in those years, and being drafted that same year.
Like, you have Howard on there for the Phillies, and he was drafted in 2001…..and your putting him on the same list as somebody who was drafted in 2008(ike Davis)? That’s unfair because one player is just starting his career, while the other, is in the twilight of his.
And Howard wasn’t the only guy like that, a lot of those guys you list were drafted or signed way before the Mets players were – Cano was signed in 2001 – Youk was drafted in 01 – Lester was in 02.
So your comparing guys who were drafted or signed in 01-02 with guys who were drafted in 05-10 – So of course those other teams are going to look betetr when you do that.
what would be fair is if you listed the players the DRAFTED or SIGNED from 05-10, then it would be fair.
And neither doyou Jessup!
But I have some evidence of what he is CAPABLE of if he should ever play a full season!
If he is more like 2010 (his ROOKIE year)
He will hit a HR every 31.6 AB!
If 2011 is sustained: a HR every 21.2 AB
Howard in 2011 .256 BA – HR every 19.5 AB
Howard in 2010 .253 BA – HR every 26.9 AB
That puts Ike in the same general area as Howard as far as HRs is concerned!
Ike BA 2010 .264
Ike BA 2011 .302
If he gets the same ABs as Howard this is what you get:
Ike Davis 644 AB X 21.2 = 30 Hrs with a .302 BA!
Tell me that isn’t AS GOOD if not BETTER than Howard when you add the glove work!
By the way, Donal, look at how long it took guys like Howard and Cano to develop and become major league starters – They were both drafted and signed in 01, and didn’t become regulars untill 2006!
That’s why you can’t say “in six years we only got two guys” because it takes a LONG time for players to develop, it takes YEARS, like it did for Cano and Howard – Your saying we didn’t get players in 09-10, while it’s impossible for them to become regulars that fast.
I know, but it’s unfair that your comparing that to the Mets guys who were drafted in 05-10.
Maybe that list would be fair, if you counted players that the team developed in the last decade?
Because it’s unfair that Howard counts for the Phillies, and Wright doesn’t for the Mets, even though they were drafted the same year.
Yes and your STRETCHING the definition of homegrown but that definition doesn’t fit the philosophy your trying to sell here Jess!
Your saying we need to hoard Draft picks!
But then use players who were traded for as examples of how that works when thats not how they got them!
I notice you didn’t reply to my projections on Ike!
You have any that shows he will not be as good as Howard?
To be fair, if you take the 4 largest AL markets you probably come up with NY, BOS, TEX, LA. And the top 4 NL are probably NY, PHI, CHC, LAD.
Here is a list I found to be interesting.
Criteria:
Homegrown or acquired as minor leaguer and still with the team
Debut in 2006-today OR broke out in 2006 to today. IE Youkilis debuted before 2006 but was back and forth.
For relievers, only used Closers.
Must play a starting role on 2011 team OR have been out due to injury (IE Joba)
Yanks: Cano, Gardner, Nunez, Montero, Nova, Hughes, Joba
Boston: Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Reddick, Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon
Rangers: Moreland, Kinsler, Andrus, David Murphy, CJ Wilson, Holland, Harrison, Ogando, Feliz
Angels: Trumbo, Aybar, Kendrick, Callaspo, Bourjos, Weaver, Walden
Phillies: Ruiz, Howard, Victorino, Hamels, Worley
Mets: Thole, Murphy, Tejada, Duda, Ike, Gee, Niese, Pelfrey
Cubs: Soto, Barney, Starlin, Marmol
Dodgers: Loney, Kemp, Ethier, Kershaw, Billingsley, Guerra
For me, quality reigns supreme over quantity. I’m taking all 4 AL teams over the Mets 2006-beyond homegrowns. And I’m probably taking the Dodgers and Phils also.
So while some may like Tejada, and no reason not to. How does he stack up to other large market teams and their homegrowns?
What you don’t like deep statistical analysis?
Never heard of AB leveling to equate FREQUENCY Metrics?
When has Ryan Howard had those numbers?
3 years ago?
We are talking about Howard as he did RECENTLY!
Which is not much better than Ike Davis from a projection standpoint!
Funny how you make a point about Ike not sustaining what he did last year and then touting Howard for what he hasn’t sustains for two years and counting!
But I expect you to only follow the rules you set when it suits you! And when others follow those rules they are wrong or crazy!
Oh and when did you say that? (Hoarding Picks?) Well take a look at any of your posts about letting reyes go!
What do we get out of that if we do?
Forget what we lose on the field look at what you say is the reason for letting him go!
So far it’s all about getting the picks which you can not even guarantee your going to get if some Crappy team with protected picks signs him!
i am sure if the conversation was about freddy freeman, you’d look a way to say “he’s young and got upside to hit 50 hr’s”. but since is a met player, he can’t do it, he’s not that good, he doesn’t have upside, or doesn’t have a position” according to you and donal. you too are a piece of work you know
is not even that, is that every single time someone mention a met next to the word being good, someway somehow you go out of your way to disclaim that person. insults and name calling are used, and you call ppl baseball uneducated. can’t a met fan hope for ike davis to be a 300 35 120 type hitter without you bashing ike davis and the fan for it? i mean, isn’t that what we all want?!? tejada is not good, duda doesn’t have a position, murphy sucks, reyes can’t be as good as he was in 2011, i mean, is never ending with you. live and let live man. stop being a patrick from metsblog.
Metsie:
“Now add harvey, Familia, Havens, Flores, Mejia to the Mets list!” Why should I? They haven’t proven anything yet in terms of having big league talent… if you add them to the list automatically then anybody can just add guys like Trout, Segura, Richards, Cowart to the Angels list because one day maybe they will be starters too?
“Ike is almost as good as Howard!”
What is “almost as good as”? You have no clue what Ike will do in a full season back from injury, none.
Age 26: Howard hit .313, .425OBP, .659SLG, 58HR, 149RBI and won an MVP. When Ike comes close to that by the time he’s 26, then lets talk about Ike being “almost as good as Howard”
Why do you think Turner has value on the trade market to get anything other than a shot in the dark minor leaguer? At the end of the day Turner is still a .260 hitting 2B with an OPS under .700. Nobody’s going to be wow’d by that. And Murphy with his 2nd major injury in as many years doesn’t exactly have a high value right now either.
We don’t get insulted we get frustrated that you think we are going to build a team that has all those guys or that ANY MLB team can build that team without spending a penny!
Which team had Ryan Howard (3 years ago) Paul Molitor, Mike Piazza Ozzie Smith and Vlad Guererro
on the same Roster?
What you think your doing IS THE FANTASY!
Not US who you seem to suggest are living a FANTASY when we say Ike Davis can be as good as Ryan Howard (WHEN HE HITS HIS PRIME) or that Tejada (only 21 years old) can be as good as Ozzy Smith or that Lucas Duda can’t hit as many HRs as guererro!
Thats what is INSULTING…
Accusing US of talking fantasy when you plan is to do what no team in the MLB has EVER DONE! Not even the NY Mets of 86!
Past his Prime…here we go with the AGE thing again…
I have to ask…HOW OLD ARE YOU JESSUP?
Ppoint of fact Ike is about as good a Howard was his first two years in the Majors!
And when he gets to year 4 or 5 he will be BETTER if he’s already starting noff his equal!
jesseP, why is it ok for you to be allowed in a mets blog to called CRAIG KIMBREL OF THE ATLANTA BRAVES THE BEST CLOSER IN THE GAME in his rookie season, yet noone in thie METS SITE can’t compare or root for one of our own to be good or to do good?? can you please tell me and eveybody why??
your opinion is better than everyone else or something? you at 28 years of age have more knowledge of baseball or something? you have no idea how arrogant you come out as.
Vinny: I’m merely showing a list of players who are “homegrown” and who are still with their current team and started to make their impact since 2006.
Metsie:
What the heck are you talking about right now?
It’s mildly and I do mean mildly amusing that you’re using math and projections to try and tell me Ike Davis is as good as Ryan Howard.
Ike Davis will be 25 years old when the season begins.
Your using his projected total from a total of 149 plate appearances? Really?
Tell ya what. When Ike Davis matches these numbers,
26: 58HR, 149RBI
27: 47HR, 136RBI
28: 48HR, 146RBI
29: 45HR, 141RBI
I’ll gladly concede Ike as being as good as Ryan Howard. If Ike Davis is as good at 25 as Howard is at 31, that doesn’t mean he was a better farm product, that means Ike is as good as Howard when he’s in decline. That’s nothing to brag about.
“Your saying we need to hoard Draft picks!” when did I say that?
and I replied to your silly Ike projections by the way
I don’t see how saying Ike Davis at 25 can match the production of Ryan Howard at age 30, 31 is a good thing? You’re saying Ike during his prime years is as good as Howard when he’s past his prime? Woopy.
Show me Davis can be as good as Howard through the age of 29, which includes 26, 27, 28, 29 years old and then we’ll talk about him being “as good.”
If you can’t show me PROOF that Ike Davis can/will do the following
26: 58HR, 149RBI
27: 47HR, 136RBI
28: 48HR, 146RBI
29: 45HR, 141RBI
Then the conversation is over. And since you cannot, kindly move along.
Hey jessup what gives you more insight to future events than us!
You say Reyes won’t be the same as he HAS been…Then go onto say Ike won’t be BETTER on the way up than a player he is the SAME as on the way down!
Ike you think will NEVER be any good. You think Cano is going to be better?
Same thing you said about Heyward last year when he was your poster boy for what you want?
Used him as a shining example of Braves doing what we should?
YOU HAVE NO BETTER ARGUMENT by your prediction of DOOM for anyone wearing a met uni than we have saying a guy like Ike with only two years of experience will get better!
It is this ARROGANCE by you that pisses everyone off!
We say something will be good we are crazy!
You say someone will be good we can take that to the bank!
Wheeler! Nimmo! All BANKABLE and GREAT moves for the future!
It is this ARROGANCE that people really are sick of!
Your not smarter and are not making ANY MORE logical sense by predicting DOOM for current Mets than you are for predicting success for kids we do not have!
And in 5 years when no WS is in tow here playing things your way your crystal ball will be shattered as well as this ARROGANT insistance that you are the only one who can say what will happen in the future without being called CRAZY!
I love how people get so insulted by me saying Ike Davis won’t be as good as Ryan Howard was in his prime
Ruben Tejada won’t be as good as Ozzie Smith
Justin Turner won’t be as good as Paul Molitor
Josh Thole won’t be as good as Mike Piazza
Lucas Duda won’t be as good as Vlad Guerrero
Mass hysteria!
“Baseball players are better when they are in their 20s
PROVE IT! SHow the numbers!
Pitchers as well!
oh alex.
I’m not the one who compared player to player. I provided a list of large market teams who had collective homegrowns make an impact from 2006 and are still on their team.
Your besty Metsie said Ike was as god as Ryan Howard. If you can’t provide for me prove that Ike can or has had years that match Howard from age 26-29 then why is it even being discussed? Howard won the league’s MVP at age 26. Are you telling me I’m a hater because I do not believe Ike Davis will match that?
There’s reality, and then there’s seeing the world through rose colored glasses.
I’m sorry if I think 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 Jose Reyes won’t be as good as 2011 Jose Reyes. I have 8 years of evidence to tell me that 2011 was likely a fluke. I also have the knowledge that the human body tends to break down as it gets older, and I’m not IGNORING that fact solely because I like watching Reyes play.
There is a difference between hoping Ike Davis can one day be that good and stating that HE IS that good. I hope Murphy can be the next Paul Molitor. But I’m not gonna say he IS that good right now.
I don’t even know what a patrick from metsblog is, but I’m gonna assume that is just another failed attempt at humor by insult.
Baseball players are better when they are in their 20s. I’m not sure why you keep arguing this fact. Did the steroid era cloud your judgment that you think baseball players get faster and stronger with age?
“Point of fact Ike is about as good a Howard was his first two years in the Majors!”
Great since we’re using projections lets use projections for this statement as well.
Ike Davis year 1+year 2: 750 PA, 26HR. A HR every 28 PA.
Ryan Howard year 1+year2: 390PA, 24HR. A HR every 16 PA.
I’ll allow you to take a second and re-read your “point of fact” and explain to me how those 2 numbers show Ike Davis is “as good” as Ryan Howard please? Howard would be on a pace to hit 46HR in his 1st two years if he had as many PA as Ike did. Since you love projections so much.
“And when he gets to year 4 or 5 he will be BETTER if he’s already starting noff his equal!”
Proven to be totally ridiculous and wrong above.
I will tell you what Metsie.
After the 2016 season, lets come back here and you can gloat if from 2012 through 2016 Ike Davis averaged 44HR, 127RBI and I will gladly send you an Ike Davis Mets jersey.
If not, all you’ll have to do is come back and say “I was wrong, sorry.”
Alex:
“jesseP, why is it ok for you to be allowed in a mets blog to called CRAIG KIMBREL OF THE ATLANTA BRAVES THE BEST CLOSER IN THE GAME in his rookie season”
Because at the time of that discussion, it was factually accurate. He was leading in the NL Rolaids Reliever of the Year standings which would have made him the best Closer in the NL (what I said not Game. Mo is best in the game, always)
“yet noone in thie METS SITE can’t compare or root for one of our own to be good or to do good?? can you please tell me and eveybody why??”
Because you have no evidence that you can provide that shows me Ike Davis is as good as Ryan Howard? Kimbrel when discussed was statistically the best closer in the NL. It was not something I just made up. Ike Davis has a career high of 19 HR. When he starts approaching the 40′s in a season then lets discuss him in comparison with some of the elite 1B in the NL.
“you at 28 years of age have more knowledge of baseball or something?” I’m not 28, thank you though.
“You say Reyes won’t be the same as he HAS been…Then go onto say Ike won’t be BETTER on the way up than a player he is the SAME as on the way down!”
Actually it is not. You have yet to show me any statistical data that proves to me Ike Davis is capable of having similar years as Ryan Howard did when he was 26, 27, 28, 29 years old.
I can show you countless examples of players who get slower and less strong as they get older. Are you really trying to tell me that assuming Reyes will decline is the same as assuming Ike is not a 45+ HR talent?
I’d still take Jason Heyward on the Mets any day, and frankly I’m not sure why you wouldn’t. He had a pretty down sophomore year, but at least he played all year.
I’m not sure why you’re down on Heyward so much as though no 21 year old player can ever have a down year?
Heyward at 21 years old is further along than most any big leaguer we’ve seen in a very very long time.
Ah so you don’t care if they suck just as long as they are young and play all year I get it!
Nick Evans could do that I suppose we should sit Ike and play him in your KIDs WORLD!
The farm has produced some serviceable major leaguers,Murphy,Duda,Tejada,Gee and 2 players with potential,Ike Davis and John Niese.Other than that this farm system hasn’t produced any impact players since Wright and Reyes.It’s not totally depleted but no other GM is knocking down our door for one of our prospects.
Oh Please Donal you say we sign first ask questions later and got failures!
Well what good is asking the question if the Answer is SIGN the guy and you still refuse to do so?
Our payroll will be around 60-65 Mil if we don’t sign Reyes!
If we sign him it will be 80-85 Mil!
Who are you spending the rest of that 25-30 Mil on, please cite examples of who and how much you need to pay them!
Should make for a good chuckle around here to see that list!
Again, spend spend spend. The money is theoretically there, so it must be spent. You’re still asking “how do we spend it” and never wondering if we should in the first place.
We don’t know that the answer is sign Reyes. Not until we see what his other offers are. And to be honest, I’m more concerned with years than up front dollars.
Yeah SLASH SLASH SLASH is better right?
Name a team who did that and won something!
2003 Marlins.
But then again, I’m not advocating becoming a $50 million dollar team. I’m advocating righting the ship, then spend on free agents to plug the holes.
Free Agency can’t be plan A.
Yeah how many WS did they win?
Did they create a LONG TERM WINNING FOUNDATION like you have been saying we are going to make if we do what they did?
How is that foundation now?
And who is a primary target for signing Reyes this year now that we refuse to make him an offer?
Something tells me they LEARNED from the mistake we are about to make! (and you support)
No, Loria learned nothing. Watch, if they do sign Reyes, we’ll see Ramriez, Stanton and those pitchers all find themselves on the trading block or free agency in 2 years.
If the Marlins do sign Reyes, it is to make a splash for their new park and sell some jerseys. They won’t follow it up with smart moves.
Dude I think you need some glass plus for your crystal ball!
Nope, just a working knowledge of recent history
Yeah revisionist history!
You should be good at recent history you don’t have more than 5-12 years of LIFE EXPERIENCE to draw from!
Our payroll is already going to be about 80 million without Reyes not 60-65 million. Bay,Santana and Wright count for 55 million right there.Arbitration eligables Pelfrey and Pagan add about 10 million more=65 million,Dickey 4.75 million.Where on earth do you get 60-65 without Reyes? You’re way way way off.
Before you get a chuckle out of somebody else’s list,you should at least get your facts straight.
Yeah did you show any facts Joe?
Pelfrey and Pagan are not currently on our payroll for next year/ They could be if they accept arbitration but that hasn’t happened yet!
You counted guys who may NOT be on our Payroll!
GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!
With Reyes getting Crawford money the Payroll will be about 85-87 Mil!
The facts of this were posted LONG AGO in another thread where we discussed what the Payroll situation was the FIRST time Sandy mentioned a 110 MIl projected Payroll!
And he recently suggested that he would go to 115 Mil on payroll if he resigned Reyes!
Until they are officially non tendered they are under team control.They are to be factored in.That is a fact.They are still under team control.
Ok then tell us how much they are taking up on the Payroll right now?
You want proof?
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tfJWfaPG4VXbDyBscIZf1MQ&output=html
There you go!
Total Payroll without Reyes and anyone else not under contract is $66,830
Go lick your wounds now!
As MA said not spending sure didn’t change a thing about us being laughingstocks.
And when Reyes and Wright are gone and we REMAIN lauging stocks guess who joins them in that STOCK of things to be laughing at?
I can’t believe that now Wright and Reyes are actually being blamed for the Mets failures by some fans. I never saw that coming.
Wow, you really want to pull that one? You are really going to try and pretend I’m blaming individual players for the team not winning when articles like this directly pander to the “DAVID WRONG IS TEH SUX” crowd? When you have had a guy writing here regularly who constantly tells us how soft Beltran is? Are you going to act like you had no idea that was going on?
Because that is just willful blindness.
I think you are co-mingling here. By that I mean mixing funds from various accounts. Let me clear it up a little.
1. You have a large contingent that believe David Wright is un-clutch, but that doesn’t mean they want to simply let him walk when he becomes a free agent or that they simply want the Mets to cut him. By the way, I don’t agree with that whole Wright is un-clutch thing. In his career Wright has been as inconsistent from year to year in the clutch department as any other top hitter including Robin Ventura, Gary Carter and Ray Knight. I believe in clutch, but also that it comes and goes.
2. You have another faction that wants to see Wright as a Mets captain which is vehemently opposed by many who dont see him as a leader or carry-the-team type player. As far as that goes, I don’t believe in captains, and I haven’t see Wright carry the team before. Still, he’s a keeper and there’s still room for improvement. As I said I expect a career year from Wright in 2012 and that could include a great year hitting in the clutch or carrying the team like Beltran used to. We’ll see.
Now just because you subscribe to the Wright isn’t clutch theory or the Wright is no leader theory, I dont believe it translates into we have to let him go and take the draft picks.
This whole thing about letting star players in their prime go and taking draft picks, is something I never remember seeing with the Mets until now.
So I’m not pulling anything here. Just stating my opinion and now showing that there are different factors at play here.
If Wright strikes out three times and leaves 8 men stranded in a game and MMO has a dozen comments saying Wright sucks. You have to be able to understand what is said in the heat of the moment from what that same person subscribes to when his adrenaline level is normal.
You heard of crimes of passion? Consider many of these remarks – comments of passion. And passion is something most fans have tons of.
So to be clear, what I haven’t seen before is this new philosophy of letting your homegrown stars that are still in their prime go in lieu of long-shot draft picks.
That is all I am referring to, and I have never seen such a prevalence of this mindset in my 35+ years of following this team.
It’s bad Joe, and good luck trying to reason with that guy.
And you’re right, as much as I’ve complained about Wright and think if money is such a big problem than sign Reyes and move him to become a better team i would never want him just cut for nothing. That’s just insane.
It’s always about maintaining the best team possible with the pieces you have and if it means moving pieces for what you think are better pieces than you do it. You just don’t get rid of them for the sake of getting rid of them.
This is a real bad way the Mets are in right now. My God, all i ever hear about now is getting rid of players.
Last year most of the talk was around getting rid of Beltran, getting rid of K-Rod, getting rid of Bay, now it’s getting rid of Reyes and now just getting rid of Wright (not in the context i discuss it in)
I mean..what the HELL is going on around here!!!!!!??????
We’re talking about rosters that need just a LITTLE help to get them to contend!
This is beyond sickening and really one of the worst cycles I’ve ever witnessed as a baseball fan. This is a sickening, “give-up” attitude and this “waiting for the future” to arrive mentality is such a CROCK.
the thing is, is not for sure that wheeler and nimmo will be here to save the day anytime soon, and giving depodesta track record of just putry draft picks, how can i be confident 100% is this F/O is beyond me. all kinds of excuses are already being made for alderson and reyes hasn’t even signed with another team. i see some already preparing their articles about how sandy did the right thing, possibles draft picks we’ll get in the 2012 draft class, i mean, lol is just down right pathetic the attitude of some ppl here. i root for all mets, but i wonder what the sandy’s apologist will say if all “his kids” and players failed miserably as they did last year?? what will they say?? ohh, i know, probably the same lame excuse they used for this year’s players sandy got “they were cheap options and after failing they were either traded away or sent down”..
Unfortunately for you Alex,like I told you about a week or so ago,DePodesta does not make the draft selections.I know that hurts your anti Alderson and DePodesta campaign but it’s a fact.Chad McDonald makes the selections.DePodesta is just Chads boss,he’s in charge.He does not make the draft picks.Not that it matters to you since you’ll bypass facts so you can keep bashing DePodesta right? That’s what you normally do right? End every sentence with right? Right?
And you would be wrong because McDonald might be the guy who says the name but the FO is the one who tells him what name to say!
Tag tried this stupid argument before!
The guy who “RUNS” the draft is no different than the guy who RUNS the Bus you take to work!
Sure he collects the money and steers the bus but his boss tells him which route he is going to take he doesn’t just make it all up on his own without decisions from above!
So stop with this DUMB notion that because the guy is listed as the draft coordinator that he really is a dictator that makes decisions on his own without first getting Podesta and Sandy on board!
DOESN’T HAPPEN! NEVER HAPPENS!
Wrong again Metsie.They made the selections based on MacDonalds recommendations.So DePodesta has the honor of making the announcements but it is MacDonalds reco.
I never said that Sandy and Depo are not on board I said DePo does not make the selections.Always putting words in peoples mouths.
Sorry Metsie, Your all wet on this, again.
The Director of Amateur Scouting runs the amateur scouts as THE full time function of his job. The reports those scouts then fill out form the basis of the entire draft. Not to say that other people aren’t involved in it to different extents but Chad McDonald is in charge of the draft 365 days a year, no on else devots more than a month to it.
McDonald ran the draft for Alderson the way Terasses did in 2006-2010 for Minaya and Russ Bove did Minaya’s first year. The draft is the sole function of their professional existence, not so with anyone else, not even close.
Oh both of you do you think the Dir of Amateur scouting can take whoever the hell he wants without approval from the FO?
If thats what you think then Billy Beane didn’t make a great team and neither did moneyball
neither did Frank Cashen or Bobby Cox because you think some underling had more control over who they take than their boss!
That is just the most rediculous statement I have ever heard Tag and you KNOW full well these DIRECTORS don’t FART without the bosses agreeing ahead of time!
Reccomendation or no the GM and the FOP had final say over who they take not the Dir of Amateur scouting!
If you think otherwise then there is no reason to discuss it any further since I don’t deal in MYTHS!
And I often say people are judging Wright based on 2008 performance which is slightly unfair because of who he had in the linup at the time!
Delgado hit 38 Hrs beltran 27 that year!
Who has hit that many since?
Note his 33 HRs was in the year he hit .302 which says he was focused on hitting the ball well not swinging for the fences! And if he does that again the Fences would not be an issue for him!
Wright may not be the player we WANT him to be but he is the player he is! And COULD be the player he was in 2008 if he focused on making good contact as opposed to making HRs.
And thats an ALL STAR 3B who if he stays focused and worried more about his Average than the fences would hit more HRs. Wright should be thought of as a guy with slightly more power than Murphy with a high BA to offset and drive in the runs not only via HR but by Doubles as well!
He’s not a leader so what?
He wouldn’t have to be if we had got someone who can hit those HRs regardless of fence proportions to hit around him!
A leader is important, but a leader is useless unless there is a good player ready to follow him and back him up!
And THAT is the role Wright is best suited for.
None of that relates to what you just said. You said you can’t believe people are now blaming Wright and Reyes for the losing, as if that is new or it somehow applies to me.
“So to be clear, what I haven’t seen before is this new philosophy of letting your homegrown stars that are still in their prime go in lieu of long-shot draft picks.”
This isn’t some sort of new philosophy. It is a harsh reality we’re dealing with now because of past failures. Teams let players they’ve developed go all the time. The problem here is that we’re in a bind where a very popular player is on the verge of a big payday when we’re in a bind.
When you say we can’t win WITH Reyes so why resign him that is precisely what your doing…BLAMIN Reyes for not winning by saying the SOLUTION to winning is to get rid of him!
And if you’re a good ballplayer why should you want to play for the Mets if they don’t want to pay you want you’re worth?
Alderson is going to have to pay SOMEONE the money they are worth regardless of his philosophy. If i’m a star ballplayer why should I sign with the Mets if they don’t want to spend?
And the kids? All these draft picks these new people around here keep creaming about? If any of them become good they’re going to want to get paid accordingly also, and if not they’ll leave too.
Either way Alderson is going to have to PAY MONEY to keep a team together.
So what’s his plan? Get rid of EVERYBODY know, don’t compete, wait for the kids and then let them go when/if they become starts too?
So Alderson’s plan is not only waiting for kids develop but also just hope they can be good early before they are eligible to become free agents or arbitration?
Is that his plan? Build a winning team with the cheap early years of draFt picks than get rid of them?
“Get rid of EVERYBODY NOW” not know
when/if they become stars not starts.
My typing is suffering here i’m so upset…
I’m not blaming him at all. But, I realize that he is not going to lead us to October as the team is presently composed. And, by the time we are built for sustained success, he’ll already be in his decline (assuming it is a long term deal).
As I have said and you choose to ignore, the problem is not that Reyes, Wright, Beltran or Santana didn’t do enough to make this team win, it’s that the organization didn’t take advantage of their stellar production.
“And, by the time we are built for sustained success”
Ahhhhhh, so it’s guaranteed huh?
Then every team should be having sustained success by now.
Ahhh so the record World Series winning championship General Manager Sandy Alderson who is unprecedented like no other GM in the history of baseball will, in fact, create sustained success.
It is guaranteed.
No, there are no guarantees at this and stop playing that card.
Where is the guarantee Reyes will come anywhere close to repeating his 2011 season?
Where’s the guarantee CJ Wilson will lead us to October?
I want to know, because apparently, we are all making guarantees without ever actually making guarantees.
You are guaranteeing he won’t…you first!
If he does and you are wrong will you stop posting here?
When did I guarantee it? I’d like to know.
Do I think that all the information at hand points to him declining? Yes, I think that in all likelihood Reyes won’t replicate his 2011 performance.
Am I guaranteeing it? No. Anything can happen, but you don’t make big bets hoping for the best case scenario.
And your solution is to get rid of the guy who is NOT hurting our ability to win and keeping the rest of the team that is composed in a way a betting champion couldn’t help it win!
Yeah that makes sense in a romper room magic mirror sort of way!
Still lying, I see. I guess when you are married to ideas that have been proven wrong over and over, you have to.
I’m not lying you don’t want to resign reyes do you?
You don’t even want Sandy to make an offer!
I want Reyes to spend his career as a Met. I really do want to go to Jose Reyes Day in the future and see #7 retired.
But, I want the Mets to be a successful franchise even more. That means sustained success.
If getting the former means hurting the chances of the latter, then I’d rather thank Reyes for his service and move on. If the former means the latter will be more likely, then we should do it.
Joe thats because they are not really interested in what is wrong with the team, They are only interested in a PHILOSOPHY and seeing the MONEYBALL EXPERIMENT played out in Flushing!
Wright and Reyes are just casualties of war, collateral damage so to speak!
The ENEMY is spending money, Who gets caught in the crossfire is worth it because the MEANS justifies the END!
It doesn’t matter if we win or not in the next 10 years! They will continue to say we are bu8ilding a FOUNDATION!
Well I’m no general contractor but I know enough to say when you build a foundation you don’t replace the BEST bricks with CHEAP LESSER quality bricks because the whole thing will collapse once the house is done!
They keep saying this is best for the future…
Because the future isn’t here yet who can say they are wrong.
When is the future? 5 years (some use this number) 10 Years? (I use this number as minimum) or is this future 100 years from now like it was with the RedSox when they shipped their best HR hitter for cash or the Cubs who have STILL yet to win a WS since Grover Cleveland was president!
Yep I’m sure they had a plan that was going to make the future good too!
Thats the problem with those who cite the FUTURE…
The Future doesn’t make appointments!
“When is the future? 5 years (some use this number) 10 Years? (I use this number as minimum) or is this future 100 years from now like it was with the RedSox when they shipped their best HR hitter for cash or the Cubs who have STILL yet to win a WS since Grover Cleveland was president!”
Great example there.
Yes it was wasn’t it!
You couldn’t deny a single thing I said there!
Lets see how much SLASHING theo does in Chicago!
I bet he even makes a play for Reyes this offseason!
Because the Cubs never spend.
And Because the Sox didn’t have a few years of restructuring under Dan Duquette, which set up their present run. And because they didn’t shuffle off Nomar…to the Cubs.
Seriously, the Cubs are your blue print of success?
Never spend enough!
Just like Omar! Unlike the Yankess and Red Sox!
Never spend enough? $144 million isn’t enough?
And you are just proving em right. All you understand is spend spend spend.
Nope what did the Yankees and Red Sox spend last year?
What did the Phillies spend?
Spend spend spend spend spend
Good luck dealing with these guys Donal.These guy’s are to irrational to have a debate with. 144 million is not enough? Nope! That response should be all you need to hear to move along from the conversation.
Yeah we are unreasonable because we are the ones who think the Yankees have a special clause in their MLB charter that says they are the only ones allowed to be the top spender in the MLB!
Thats your REASONABLE position right?
Yes he will NEVER win a debate with us and neither will you!
Because we have ONE standard for all positions and you guys have three or four that you use whenever they suit you even in cases where they conflict with other positions you have!
Such as your Beaut that Reyes declined to negotiate when Sandy refused first and then LAST which means Sandy has refused TWICE reyes only ONCE with a damn good reason for it as well!
spend spend spend lie lie lie
The Cubs over the past 21 years have spent $1,516,703,377. Only 4 teams have spent more. The Mets being one of them having spent $175,567,958 more for a total of $1,692,271,335.
The Cubs have four playoff appearances to show for it. The Mets? Have three.
And how many do the Yankees and RedSox have MNJ?
You already know the answer to that one I think.
“As MA said not spending sure didn’t change a thing about us being laughingstocks.”
Let me know when we try that.
“And when Reyes and Wright are gone and we REMAIN lauging stocks guess who joins them in that STOCK of things to be laughing at?”
People who have trouble forming sentences?
No those who have trouble forming logical thoughts!
There is an example in your Mirror!
Go look!
The ideal scenario is that the Mets can resign Jose Reyes and that for the next 4-7 years (depending on the particulars) he stays healthy enough to play 150 games. A .300 batting average, 100 runs scored, 40 plus stolen bases and the defense he has showed all along would be the norm. The reality however is that Jose has missed considerable time and may well do so down the road based on his history. What happens is going to depend on what the other teams think in terms of the gamble on signing Reyes to a long term, mega buck deal. The reality is that Sandy Alderson is going to wait and see what the other offers are before doing anything. He has no choice but to wait at this point. A low ball offer is only going to insult Jose and both sides knew this would end up being a business decision in the long run. The period where the Mets still have exclusive negotiating rights is almost over and the bidding for Jose will start soon….
What is deflating is not their inability to hold onto their two best and homegrown stars…
It’s their UNWILLINGNESS to hold onto them!
That and the folks in charge (and many here) think we will actually be BETTER if we let them go!
Pelfrey is “above the line” but Reyes is not worth signing!
This is the thinking proccess people around here are agreeing with!
Pelfrey=Pat Zachry
Santana=Craig Swan
Parnel=Neil Allen (only less!)
I guess when he says above the line he is talking about the 4.0 ERA line!
Pelfrey & Parnel might equal Zachary and Allen, but Swan can’t touch Santana.
Does on the Injury front!
Swan only had .60 more in ERA than Santana does career wise to date!
Craig Swan: W-59 L-72 .450 3.74
Johan Santana: W-133 L-69 .658 3.10
Swannie still can’t touch him
last years 140 million Dollar payroll is “not” spending? If we get to under 70 million a year, then that would be not spending. Reyes and Wright should be getting to their better years for the next 3-4 years.
140 million dollar payroll, santana, bay, perez and castillo combined salary was 59 million. so to say we had a 140 million dollar team on the field is crazy.we at one point had a 43 million dollar team on the field. how pathetic is that!?!? yet people wanna keep barking at the wrong tree.. yes we ate up 18 million of perez and castillo, so is included on the payroll, but now we’re 60 to 70 million free, how much of that will sandy spend to put a winner on the field? or will all that go to the wilpons back pockets!? remains to be seen.
We were paying contracts to people on field and not on field. With injuries and then the players you bring up to cover them, it should be more. He could save money by not paying or signing crappy players. I don’t care how much they make as long as they help us. It does remain to be seen. I am sure most Met fans hope we do well.
He already saved money by letting those contracts of NOT ON THE FIELD players expire!
How much needs to be saved every year?
You cut the bad, keep the good and get rid of what doesn’t work keep what does!
Yes, I agree Metsie. So I hope he does not keep Pelfrey and Carrasco. Or if he signs Pelfrey, trade him if possible.
You see I (We) have no problems cutting Salary…
I just don’t sell the house out from under me to make the damn car payments on a car that doesn’t drive!
Reyes works and contributes. I’ll keep paying him.
The guys who don’t contribute are where I save the money!
Yes, I see Pelfrey in the same boat as Perez. I don’t care if he gives us 200 innings if they are mostly bad ones. I also think we can get a better backup catcher than Paulino for the money we payed him.
We just cut roughly 53 Mil from the payroll before we even GOT to talking Reyes!
20 Mil Perez and castillo and another 18 Mil for Beltran another 15 Mil for K-Rod (17 Mil if you count the Option)
Why is it so important to cut it ALL out in one year?
Why is cutting Reyes NOW so important?
Isn’t saving 50+ Mil on a 140 mil Payroll enough for one year or does EVISCERATING the roster the best way forward?
We spent 140 Mil last year and cut Salary by MORE than a third!
How much cutting is enough?
and that 50 Mil number doesn’t even include all the minor contracts like Pelfrey, Pagan, Hairston, Harris, and Pen arms that will also come off the books if replaced!
If we pass on signing Reyes our Payroll before signing ANYONE will be 60 Mil!
10 Mil under the number you say will be NOT SPENDING!
So WE ARE NOT SPENDING as of this moment in time!
is a real shame the way some ppl put things in perspective , jose reyes got hurt last yeat twice was trying to run out ground balls for the sake of the team. and whether ppl here like it or not, he’s still the first met to ever win a batting title, too bad he’s not appreciate more for it instead of the usual hating on him. the fully alderson excuse mode is in full effect already and he hasnt even talked to reyes yet, is amazing how ppl don’t view this article for what it is, REALITY. we’re not talking about going out and signing luis castillo people, jose reyes!!!! the best overall player in the history of the franchise. people already are giving alderson a pass by saying STUPID things like “Perhaps the team now has a long-term plan to spend money wisely rather than sign contracts for players that will be shadows of their former selves for the last 2-3 years of signing”
i mean, how STUPID IS THAT!?? others are in full excuse mode already by saying the team finished 4th with him anyweays” or “is ok to suck and be small market, rather then suck and be large market” but what bothers me is where are the injuries excuse for minaya when he was here trying to at least put a winner on the field?? yes he failed miserably, but at least he was trying to win, is sandy alderson giving anyone that impression?? all he talks about is salary reduction, not able to afford 15 million per year players, and draft picks he’ll get for reyes. is a real shame how some ppl here are just giving this man a hall pass. amazing how a LOSER GM is just getting all the praised for having done nothing but to shed payroll for the wilpons debt issues.
You can’t really compare Omar’s situation with Sandy’s.
Omar had Wilpon’s full support to raise the payroll to what it was. And yes, he did fail.
Alderson is starting off with trying to compete amidst the Wilpons desperately trying to hold onto a team they really can’t afford to spend on as they did in the past, if necessary.
I’m not saying it takes upwards 150MIL or better to field a competitive team.
But in the situation the Wilpons are in, coupled with revenues being down, etc. – Alderson is starting out his GM stint handcuffed more than Minaya ever was.
I’ll reserve judgement on Sandy for a couple of years until we see how some of this shakes out.
Meanwhile, I think it really does suck that we have to be discussing good homegrown players being traded and/or losing to FA – for the reasons above that we’re likely to lose them.
And you have proof that if Sandy went to Wilpon and said I can win you a WS if I could just go get this guy and that guy that Wilpon would say no….
Easy to blame Wilpon without any evidence to support it isn’t it?
Wilpon has ALWAYS supported his GM’s desires and philosophy until the Media complained about them!
Be it spending or not spending!
So to say the Wilpons have changed their stripes is just circumstantial unsubstantiated blame shifting for the plan Sandy is implementing!
Sandy has said he wants to cut payroll and all Wilpon has ever said is we will spend if the GM says we need to!
“Easy to blame Wilpon without any evidence to support it isn’t it? Wilpon has ALWAYS supported his GM’s desires and philosophy until the Media complained about them!”
Were the Wilpon’s involved in multiple lawsuits that could cost them hundreds of millions of dollars during the Phillips and Minaya regimes? Can you show me PROOF (since you love proof so much) that the Wilpon’s have as much $ today as they did in say 2005?
Don’t forget the real estate market, in which Fred built his fortune, dropping as well.
Uhhh only the Residential market is suffering not the commercial market Freddy is in….
I know your too young to know the difference though!
Do you have evidence of this?
Yep just read all Street Journal!
Commerical property does not have value in buy and selling it is all in RENT!
the Value of the PROPERTY itself goes down meaning the PROPERTY TAXED VALUE does as well = Lower taxes!
Rent however does NOT go down in this Market!
Has your rent gone down lately due to the devaluation of the property you live in?
Commercial Realty is a RENTAL business not a buy and sell business!
The Value of the property in sale is irrelevant to the worth of the building in rental reciepts!
And most businesses don’t have the money to move their entire operations someplace else where the rent is cheaper!
It upsets business do to the chaos of moving and instead stay where they are and merely fighting for no INCREASE in their rent and lease!
No they lost rent money from the companies they rented to going out of business.They have taken a beating with their other business interests and they still have a shit ton of debt for Citifield and SNY.Having a lot of empty commercial buildings hurt just as much.Sterling Equities took a bath from the economic downfall.
You have proof they went out of business Joe or is this more supposition on your part?
Did you know we didn’t lose many companies in this economy what we lost was jobs done to help companies to stay in business and be able to make their rent and other overhead!
But I’m perfectly willing to look at any list of Wilpon Tenants you have that went out of business and cost them money!
Care to offer one?
I didn’t think so!
I’ll show you proof when you show me proof they haven’t been affected by the economy.No you don’t have any proof unless you’re privy to Sterling Equities books which you’re not.Do you not read the papers and watch the news.Sterling Equities has been greatly affected by the economy.Unless you’re calling all those media outlets wrong or liars.I guess you don’t see a whole bunch of empty commercial buildings throughout New York.
There were plenty of small businesses that went under over the last 3 years you can’t be that dumb.Well maybe you can since you think the Mets can comepete with the Yankees financially.Oh do you need proof the Mets can’t spend with the Yankees too.
I did dopey! You just refused to listen to it because if you had your whole justification for CUTTING SALARY falls apart!
You claimed they were broke…
So the burden of proof falls on you to back that up!
They made 300 Mil they shouldn’t have off Madoff!
If you had 300 Mil would YOU be broke?
They are not involved in what you claim they are now!
They are in a lawsuit to get back 300 Mil that isn’t theirs plus 86 Mil that is!
And so far all signs point to the fact they will pay back 86 Mil which means a net profit from Madoff of 214 Mil UP on madoff!
MORE than covers what Reyes will get paid doesn’t it?
What about the 500 million dollars of theirs that evaporated when Madoff got caught.
That 500 Mil was family and employees retirement money not Fred and Jeffs!
Not the NY METS by any means thats for sure!
You should read the articles about Madoff not just the headlines you might learn something about what actually happened there!
Do you have proof it wasn’t their money? No I didn’t think so.
Yes it’s called a newspaper you should try reading one on occassion so you won’t make such uninformed remarks so often!
Tell me something…
If they LOST 500 Mil then why would Picard be suing them for 300 Mil? Wouldn’t he owe then 200 Mil instead?
Wouldn’t the Wilpons be suing the TRUST to get the balance of what you say they lost over what everyone agrees is what they gained?
HOW does your RATIONAL logic you spoke of deal with that fact>?
There is no way Sandy can lay claim to having definitive proof he could win a WS if he did x,y,z…..anymore than Omar could.
No GM in MLB can.
“Because at the time of that discussion, it was factually accurate”
BULLSHIT! There was no FACTS to prove he would be that good even one more season!
YOU JUST ARROGANTLY believe that when YOU make a prediction it is DESTINY and when others make a prediction is it DUMB and UNFOUNDED!
Like when you claimed 7.5 games out of the Wildcard was something that NO TEAM could overcome yet the WS winning Cardinals did just that not in Two months but ONE!
They were 10.5 games back in August!
And don’t give us that crap that they were a better team because 7.5 games out if OVERCOMABLE is OVERCOMABLE by ANY team that is only that far away!
Sure they were ahead of us at the time we were 7.6 games back but unless we LOST more (which we did thanks to your OTHER ARROGANT prediction that losing Beltran and K-Rod wouldn’t hurt us) than the cardinals did between July 31st and Sept 1st (where they were 10 games back) we could have EASILY caught the braves if we had not given up like you did based on your FLAWLESS CRYSTAL BALL!
You know the one that was wrong TWICE in the course of two months!
Metsie
“Baseball players are better when they are in their 20s” “PROVE IT! SHow the numbers!
Pitchers as well!”
You’re being serious? You’re actually asking me to prove to you that the human athlete is better when they are in their 20s than in their 30s?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933
Or you can go pick up the book “Peak athletic performance and ageing: Evidence from baseball” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02640410802691348
Here’s another link about it http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2009/04/jc-bradbury-on-aging-in-baseball.html
There you go Metsie. Go read all the proof you want. Unless of course studying every player with at least 5000 PA (4000 batters faced for pitchers) who debuted in 1921 or later is not enough evidence for Metsie?
I look forward to seeing your scientific proof that declares players are better in their 30s than in their 20s.
Thanks, and have a great day
“I look forward to seeing your scientific proof that declares players are better in their 30s than in their 20s.”
Oh, just some nobody you probably never heard of. ROGER CLEMENS.
haha Isee your Roger Clemens and I raise you Barry Bonds!
Clearly athletes get better as they get older. After all, there’s no proof that suggests otherwise right?
Metsie, I can’t wait to hear how you refute a guy’s data which has studied more players than you have ever looked at in your life to come up with his theory.
From his Abstract “Baseball players exhibit a pattern of improvement and decline in performance; however, differing lengths of careers and changes in rules and characteristics of the game complicate assessments of age-related effects on performance. This study attempts to isolate the impact of age on several player skills while controlling for relevant outside factors using longitudinal data from 86 seasons of Major League Baseball. The results indicate that players age in different skills in accord with studies of ageing in other athletic contests. For overall performance, multiple-regression estimates indicate that hitters and pitchers peak around the age of 29 – later than previous estimates. Athletic skills such as hitting and running peak earlier than skills that rely heavily on experience and knowledge, such as issuing and drawing walks.”
But wait a second!
If somebody peaks at age 29… doesn’t 30 come after 29? No, that can’t be. Metsie, say it ain’t so. Tell me players generally are better in their 30s rather than 20s!
I I raise one Nolan Ryan, Joe and Phil Niekro with a RA Dickey Kicker!
You posted Bradbury’s study I see…One that most of your friends do not agree with! You know guys like Tango Tiger who thinks an RBOE is better than a hit?
Bradbury says they PEAK at 29 and GRADUALLY decline saying basically they don’t succeed that much, peak quickly then GRADUALLY decline from THAT peak performance!
Both your studies completely REMOVED all the FAILED YOUTH from the equation counting only players with more than 8-10 years of MLB service (or 5000 AB). If those were included then the AGE of PEAK performance would go way HIGHER than 29 since it would include all those kids who came in, struggled as rookies and then left the league!
It also doesn’t solve your main AGE issue where your trading an All Star for a Kid who might NEVER make it to the MLB! Since those players were also not counted since they never played a single game in the MLB that FAILURE of performance is also not accounted for!
Just as is pointed out in one of your links, by only including players who played 10 seasons makes the PRIME age higher not including those younger fails makes the prime age LOWER!
And the fact the data shows ACCELERATION to prime but GRADUAL decline the curve proves that while they may not have thier career year after age 29 they will be closer to that career year in thier 30′s than they were in the years before their PEAK CARREER year!
Here is now some light reading for you!
http://paa2006.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=61286
It talks about the average START age of a MLB Rookie, The average retirement age, What is required to have a long career, Affects of events aside from age and the problems with calculating AGE SPECIFIC METRICS in baseball due to conditions and league events (such as league expansion extending careers)
Because they did not THROW AWAY all the failed youth they showed a player who comes into the league as a first year player can expect to play 5 years while a 4th year player can expect to play an additional 6 years! (10 Total)
It does however say that the younger you start the more likely you will have a long and productive career! This is due to the fact that the team is less likely to give up on a kid under 23 giving him more chance to succeed than some guy who is older. And if he shows success in his 5 year window is very likely to play well into his 30′s!
I suggest you read your RESEARCH again and see where they skewed the data by removing all the YOUNG FAILURES from the dataset to skew the conclusion YOUNGER than it should!
And if your YOUTH Theory is really going to be proved you should be including all the kids you traded away ALL STARS to get and factor that into how successful your KID ONLY methodology actually works!
But you won’t because you didn’t even bother to read the research you posted if you had you would have seen the holes I identified!