19
2011
Sandy Makes The Right Call On Pagan
An article by 72MetsFan
Welcome Metsmerized readers. My name is Drew and I’ve been a lifelong Mets fan since 1972, a season which began with tragedy after the death of beloved manager Gil Hodges. On the field, we got off to a great start that season with Yogi leading the way and the addition of Willie Mays, but eventually the injuries became too much to overcome (Staub’s injury killed us) and Jim Fregosi, who we traded Nolan Ryan for that offseason ended up being a huge flop. It was a lot like 2009 in that everyone had us pegged as favorites that year. We finished in third, but 1973 was just around the corner. I look forward to my experience writing for this great one-of-a-kind Mets blog.
So far, this offseason has been quite dull for those of us hoping to see the Mets get out in front of the competition while seeking to improve on their third consecutive 4th place finish in the NL East. The new GM however, prefers a slow and measured approach – opting to let other teams set the market for prized shortstop Jose Reyes, and also allowing rival teams to pick through the prime offerings while we wait to sift through the slim-pickings that remain at the end.
We saw this same approach last offseason. We were told the team was hand-cuffed and that they had little to no flexibility to do more, and they were right. “Next offseason will be much different”, they said, but by the looks of it, it’s not. In fact when you consider the potential loss of Jose Reyes, the only difference is that it might be worse.
One area that I felt needed improving this Winter was centerfield. For the last seven years, we didn’t have to worry too much about that position, but with Beltran now gone and his replacement Angel Pagan failing to deliver and actually regressing in 2011, it would seem an obvious area for the front office to improve upon. If all the reports of the last few months were true, the front office was not at all pleased with the prospect of another season with Pagan as the everyday centerfielder, but this week we learned that they’ve decided to tender him and risk having to pay him in upwards of $5MM dollars for 2012. What happened, why the sudden change of heart?
On the surface it would appear that this was a head-scratcher, at least it was for me. But I read an article by Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger that shed some additional light on this and in the end I agreed with the direction the Mets chose to go with regarding Pagan. First a quote by Sandy Alderson on the matter,
“I think Angel gave us quite a bit that maybe was underappreciated. Maybe the defense was not up to his expectation or even ours. But he gave us some speed on the bases. He filled in I think reasonably well for Jose Reyes when he was out…So if we have Angel in center field to begin next season, we’ll be happy with that.”
Pagan is no spring-chicken, he’ll be 31 next season, and he spends an awful amount of time nursing injuries throughout his career, but when you compare him to some of the other available centerfield options as McCullough did over the last three seasons, here is what you see:
Take a look at the center-field market, and how these players have performed since 2009:
Rick Ankiel: .235/.297/.378, .296 wOBA, 2.2 fWAR
Coco Crisp: .262/.326/.396, .332 wOBA, 7.0 fWAR
David DeJesus: .277/.349/.417, .334 wOBA, 8.5 fWAR.
Grady Sizemore: .234/.314/.413, .317 wOBA, 1.9 fWARAnd here’s Pagan: .284/.336/.422, .336 wOBA, 9.3 fWAR.
Don’t ask me what the numbers at the end are, I haven’t a clue, but the batting average, on-base and slugging work just fine for me and tells the story. Pagan has clearly outperformed the competition, can steal bases, is cheaper, and there’s a good chance he could see improvement both on offense and defense.
Alderson is making the right call here.
About the Author: Drew Staley
On June 1, 2012 Johan Santana officially became my favorite current Met! I'm a Queens native who grew up in the shadows of Big Shea. I was a huge Ron Darling, Dave Magadan and John Olerud fan. Honored to be a part of such a great site for Mets fans. Ya Gotta Believe!
12 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Coyote: on Power Prospect Cory Vaughn Is On A Mission: Natera sounds like a guy who can...
- DrDooby: on Things Spiralling Out Of Control For Ike Davis Offensively And Defensively: I agree Ike should be sent down...
- Mr North Jersey: on Power Prospect Cory Vaughn Is On A Mission: Nice, that did the trick.
- srt: on Things Spiralling Out Of Control For Ike Davis Offensively And Defensively: I don't now if I agree with...
- Alex68: on Things Spiralling Out Of Control For Ike Davis Offensively And Defensively: Nope, according to him it's not the...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5367 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
I would like to see them improve at CF but it looks like if they are it may just have to be via trade cause the free agents available that you listed makes keeping Pagan not a bad decision. Welcome to MMO 72MetsFan
Be careful with just giving those slash lines for guys like Sizemore, DeJesus, & Ankiel because those slash lines don’t give HRs/RBIs and for players like that that’s what you need to know.
If I’m making a deal and considering Grady Sizemore no way am I making that deal without knowing their power numbers and if he’s driving in runs, same with Dejesus and Ankiel. Ankiel to me is a bottom of the order guy with power so it serves no pupose to tell me his OBP and not tell me if he’s hitting HRs and in how many ABs. Those slash lines don’t give ABs either and I’m not making a deal without know that too.
Welcome to MMO Drew but you’ve been around and you should know those things. Would YOU want to consider signing Grady Sizemore or Rick Ankiel without knowing how many HRs they hit in how many ABs and if they are driving in runs at a good clip? I don’t think you would not want to know those things.
That being said I would still see what is out there and if I can upgrade from Angel Pagan. I cannot stand this slow measured approach by the front office because if you can sign or trade for guy that makes you better now and you can fit him in the budget than why sit back and wait? While you’re waiting for the market to lower on him someone else who needs that player to make their team better can swoop in and grab him because they’re not sitting around and “waiting” for the price to go down, he simply fits his budget as is. And to me that’s the SMARTER way of doing things. If he’s within your budget than get him before somebody else does and that’s what seems to be happening here.
Yeah but as far as contingency plans go, there’s a good chance we may have a greater need for speed and OB% than bottom of the order power if you know what I mean.
i agree with you. A guy like Pagan you can get away with that slash line they give now because he’s not a power hitter and fits the profile more of a one or two hitter than the other guys mentioned. I’m still gonna ask in how many ABs were those numbers achieved. It just amazes me what is happening to people, especially people who were around back then. I mean why are you giving me Grady Sizemore or Dejesus’ slash line? Those guys are paid to hit HRs, hit with power and drive in RBis! If they’re doing that then the rest of that crap will be there – you don’t give the info backwards
“What happened, why the sudden change of heart?”
Well it’s two fold…
First off there aren’t that many decent CFs around as you correctly pointed out but Sandy’s quote tells the bigger story here…
“But he gave us some speed on the bases. He filled in I think reasonably well for Jose Reyes when he was out…”
It changed when Reyes got an offer they are going to refuse! They won’t refuse it yet hoping that someone makes a better offer so they can say it was just too much, (6/90 hardly applies as too much to resign) and have a better excuse for declining to match.
Angel Pagan is very likely to be our leadoff hitter next year! Reyes will be gone and thats why the change of heart on his value to us!
I am sure that Sandy has already decided Reyes got more than he wanted to spend both in years and per year money. So that changed how valuable Pagan was to them!
They need a leadoff hitter to replace Reyes! And Pagan is going to be it!
Good post. We dont have a choice or any better options at CF for now. I hope Nieuwenhuis can step up to the bigs in 2012.
If you sift through Angel Pagan’s 2011 stats, Sandly Alderson’s comment that Pagan was somewhat underappreciated seems valid. Here’s his splits for 2011:
http://mets.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=434636#sectionType=splitsCareer&statType=1&season=2011&gameType='R‘
At first glance, the disparity in his performance in April and July contrast sharply with his performance in May, June, August and September, to a lesser extent. The disparity is largely attributable to two chronic and unrelated conditions that he battled last year.
Pagan’s oblique strains affected him in the spring and in July. It appears that in April 2011, he came back from the injury too early. Once he got his legs under him, his production was solid and timely. The July injury coincided with Jose Reyes’ hamstring issues, which set the team back and, ultimately, out of contention. It made Alderson’s decision to trade K-Rod and Beltran a lot easier to justify.
Pagan’s lesser known malady, his chronic bouts with colitis, affect his equilibrium and leave him dehydrated and exhausted. I won’t fully attribute his vapor-lock to his colitis, but any condition that can affect an individuals biochemistry is likely to become manifest in their performance in an atheletic competition.
The aspect of Pagan’s game that is often underappreciated is his ability to increase his focus and intensity when the game is on the line. Please review his “late and close” stats, which confirm my observation of him as a ballplayer – you can see it in his eyes and in his body language.
If this man can somehow manage to maintain his health throughout the course of the season, he will be one of the National League’s top outfielders. I’ve had the pleasure of meeting with him and speaking with him. He’s very respectful, very mindful of his approach at the plate, quite humble, yet at the same time confident in his own ability. He’s incredibly strong.
I expect Angel Pagan to have an outstanding bounce-back season.
I wonder how much Pagan’s chronic disease plays a part in his inconsistency.
Either way, signing him is a no brainer. He’s a stop gap this upcoming season and if later on a better candidate can be had, he can always be traded.
Looking at the FA tracker to date on another blog this morning, the Mets aren’t the only team that hasn’t done much so far. In fact, with the exception of a handful of moves, most teams are right where the Mets. There’s been about 35 signings so that averages about one per team, with a few teams > 1 and some teams like the Yankees having done nothing so far.
Referencing the link in the above post, you may have to hit “Roster” again to refresh Pagan’s stat page.
His batting average for May, June, August & Septmber is a Pagan-like .306. Inasmuch as we can get statistics to say anything, those numbers are normal for him when he is healthy.
Pardon the digression, but it’s guys like Pagan, Daniel Murphy, Ike Davis, Lucas Duda & Ruben Tejada who will battle opposing pitchers and make them work for every pitch. Those type of batters wear out starters and are – what I call – inning extenders. Wright used to be that way, until he fancied himself a homerun hitter. Somehow, they manage to make things happen.
That mentality plays into one of Terry Collins’ strengths, his ability to use all of his players. Glad to have Angel Pagan aboard.
Great article and awesome points. Welcome!
Why not sign Pagan and Sizemore. Sign Ivan Rodriguez for the young pitcher. Sign David Aardsma and Capuano. If we dont resign Reyes. Trade Wright to Angels for Garrett Richards, Ariel Pena and Peter Bourjos.
I am never for signing a bad baseball player. You can ad up his runs and RBIS. Can you quantify all the things that Angel gives away with his dumb throws, his swings at bad pitches, and his foolish baserunning? I don’t care what the numbers say, Sizemore is a superior player. And both of them have inuury histories..