MMO Jose Reyes Prediction Contest – Win A Free Gift!

An article by posted on November 8, 2011

Never before has it seemed that one team’s future rests so much on whether one player signs with them, or chooses to sign with another team. Perhaps one could argue that Albert Pujols’ free agency has more of an impact on the St. Louis Cardinals, but I do not think many people are expecting Pujols to leave town. If he does, their fans have 2 World Series championships to hold them over until better days arrive.

Here in New York, it’s all about Jose Reyes. The fan base has a huge divide right now, and it all seems to stem from whether or not Jose Reyes will remain a NY Met. Growing frustration from the past 25 years, has turned into a disgust for the current front office. As if it is their fault the Mets are in the situation they find themselves in today.

Reyes represents a scapegoat for bitter Mets fans to latch onto, and further their disgust for Sandy Alderson. Whether that disgust is fair or not, if Reyes leaves (even for a king’s ransom) it will be Sandy Alderson’s fault in many a fans eye.

Minaya, the Wilpon’s, Phillips, Jose Reyes, Tom Glavine, Willie Randolph, Bernie Madoff, David Wright, Peter Greenberg, Carl Crawford, Jerry Manuel, and Carlos Beltran all likely played a bigger role in the Mets current state of affairs than Sandy Alderson has. Yet, if Reyes leaves, it will all be on Alderson.

Free agency has begun, and already this negotiation (or lack thereof) has gone public with statements from Reyes’ agent suggesting the Mets have yet to even make a formal offer. To me, this sounds like an agent trying to publically create a market that might not be there for his client. Why would an agent come out so public, so early? Could it be that many teams see what the Mets see? Also, the deadline to offer arbitration to players like Reyes has yet to even arrive. Why would or should the Mets bid against themselves in this process, if their goal is to see what the market dictates for Reyes?

If the Marlins wish to overpay for a guy like Reyes simply because they are marketing a new team with a new manager, that can’t be the Mets problem.

Whether we as fans like to admit it or not, neither Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes are worth a “Crawford” deal. They just aren’t, and to suggest they are is suggesting you want the Mets to follow the same mistakes made by teams like Boston (Crawford) and Washington (Werth).

Since 2006, here are your $100million+ contracts.

  • Alfonso Soriano 8/136 – Mistake
  • Barry Zito 7/126 – Mistake
  • Carlos Lee 6/100 – Mistake
  • Alex Rodriguez 10/275
  • Mark Teixeira 8/180
  • CC Sabathia 7/161
  • Matt Holliday 7/120 – Mistake in long-run, could cost them Pujols.
  • Carl Crawford 7/142 – Mistake
  • Jayson Werth 7/126 – Mistake
  • Cliff Lee 5/120

If you’re being honest, it’s clear that MOST times, a $100million+ contract is a bad idea for a franchise to make. And in the cases it is not, Reyes is not those type of players. Reyes is not ARod, Tex, CC or Cliff Lee. He is in a tier below them in terms of caliber of player.

If I asked you in no order (because I don’t need a bar fight) to name the best SS’s in the league with the following criteria:

At least 26 years old (avoiding likely league minimum deals) and keeping reputation in mind (IE Jeter), your list would likely consist of Reyes, Tulo, Hanley, Jeter, Rollins right? Sure, we could inter-change guys like Yunel Escobar or Peralta, but at the end of the day the previously listed five SS’s are the most well-known and accomplished shortstops in the sport.

To be fair, you have to look at their contracts signed around the same age as Reyes.

So Tulo you get 10 years/157, Rollins 5 years/40, Jeter 10 years/189, Ramirez 6 years/70.

If you’re the Mets, you want a Hanley type deal. If you’re Reyes, you want a Tulo type deal. To me, I think this further proves why a contract worth around $90 million is a fair market price for Jose Reyes.

We here at MMO have decided to create a contest centered solely around Jose Reyes’ future. Introducing…

THE JOSE REYES PREDICTION CONTEST!

In the comment section, please predict the following:

  • When Reyes officially signs.The person (or persons) who are closest to that date, will receive 3.5 points. (Example: If Reader A says December 2, and Reader B says December 4 and he signs on December 3, they both earn 3.5 points.)

    Jose Reyes officially signed on December 7th, making Mr. North Jersey and Will’s guess of December 5th the closest, earning them each 3.5 points!

  • How many years he gets (option years excluded). The person (or persons) who hit that number will receive 1 points.

    Nester was the closest here and earned 1 point!

  • How much he gets per year (without incentives/bonuses). The person (or persons) who come closest to that number will earn 2.5 points. (Example: Same as date, if Reader A guesses 15mil, and Reader B guesses 17mil, but Reyes gets 16… we both win unless somebody guessed 16.)

    Reyes is making $17 million a year which does not include his $4m buyout option in year #7. Therefore both Nester and Mr. North Jersey earn points here!

  • Where he signs +4 (only those with points from previous question can earn +4, thus its essentially a tiebreaker.)

    Though some did guess Miami, the rules did state that this would only be used in case of a tiebreaker, so with that said our winner is Mr. North Jersey with 6 points! Congratulations, I’ll be in touch with Joe D on how to get you the book!

In order to submit a guess, you must reply with all four responses and have a valid e-mail address listed when you log in.

The person with the most points, will receive a copy of “Few and Chosen” by Rusty Staub.

In case of a tie, the person who earned the most points on 1 single question will be the winner. (For example, Reader A guessed the Mets, Reader B did not and he signs with the Mets, Reader A wins.)

I will start with my guess, but I will not be eligible to win the prize.

Date: December 27, 2011
Years: 5
How much Per Year: $18 million
Where He Signs: NY Mets

About the Author ()

Michael Branda grew up a Mets fan watching the mid 1980's teams and his favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, he's in the middle and believes adopting new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the old way has not produced results.

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