8
2011
MMO Jose Reyes Prediction Contest – Win A Free Gift!
An article by 
Never before has it seemed that one team’s future rests so much on whether one player signs with them, or chooses to sign with another team. Perhaps one could argue that Albert Pujols’ free agency has more of an impact on the St. Louis Cardinals, but I do not think many people are expecting Pujols to leave town. If he does, their fans have 2 World Series championships to hold them over until better days arrive.
Here in New York, it’s all about Jose Reyes. The fan base has a huge divide right now, and it all seems to stem from whether or not Jose Reyes will remain a NY Met. Growing frustration from the past 25 years, has turned into a disgust for the current front office. As if it is their fault the Mets are in the situation they find themselves in today.
Reyes represents a scapegoat for bitter Mets fans to latch onto, and further their disgust for Sandy Alderson. Whether that disgust is fair or not, if Reyes leaves (even for a king’s ransom) it will be Sandy Alderson’s fault in many a fans eye.
Minaya, the Wilpon’s, Phillips, Jose Reyes, Tom Glavine, Willie Randolph, Bernie Madoff, David Wright, Peter Greenberg, Carl Crawford, Jerry Manuel, and Carlos Beltran all likely played a bigger role in the Mets current state of affairs than Sandy Alderson has. Yet, if Reyes leaves, it will all be on Alderson.
Free agency has begun, and already this negotiation (or lack thereof) has gone public with statements from Reyes’ agent suggesting the Mets have yet to even make a formal offer. To me, this sounds like an agent trying to publically create a market that might not be there for his client. Why would an agent come out so public, so early? Could it be that many teams see what the Mets see? Also, the deadline to offer arbitration to players like Reyes has yet to even arrive. Why would or should the Mets bid against themselves in this process, if their goal is to see what the market dictates for Reyes?
If the Marlins wish to overpay for a guy like Reyes simply because they are marketing a new team with a new manager, that can’t be the Mets problem.
Whether we as fans like to admit it or not, neither Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes are worth a “Crawford” deal. They just aren’t, and to suggest they are is suggesting you want the Mets to follow the same mistakes made by teams like Boston (Crawford) and Washington (Werth).
Since 2006, here are your $100million+ contracts.
- Alfonso Soriano 8/136 – Mistake
- Barry Zito 7/126 – Mistake
- Carlos Lee 6/100 – Mistake
- Alex Rodriguez 10/275
- Mark Teixeira 8/180
- CC Sabathia 7/161
- Matt Holliday 7/120 – Mistake in long-run, could cost them Pujols.
- Carl Crawford 7/142 – Mistake
- Jayson Werth 7/126 – Mistake
- Cliff Lee 5/120
If you’re being honest, it’s clear that MOST times, a $100million+ contract is a bad idea for a franchise to make. And in the cases it is not, Reyes is not those type of players. Reyes is not ARod, Tex, CC or Cliff Lee. He is in a tier below them in terms of caliber of player.
If I asked you in no order (because I don’t need a bar fight) to name the best SS’s in the league with the following criteria:
At least 26 years old (avoiding likely league minimum deals) and keeping reputation in mind (IE Jeter), your list would likely consist of Reyes, Tulo, Hanley, Jeter, Rollins right? Sure, we could inter-change guys like Yunel Escobar or Peralta, but at the end of the day the previously listed five SS’s are the most well-known and accomplished shortstops in the sport.
To be fair, you have to look at their contracts signed around the same age as Reyes.
So Tulo you get 10 years/157, Rollins 5 years/40, Jeter 10 years/189, Ramirez 6 years/70.
If you’re the Mets, you want a Hanley type deal. If you’re Reyes, you want a Tulo type deal. To me, I think this further proves why a contract worth around $90 million is a fair market price for Jose Reyes.
We here at MMO have decided to create a contest centered solely around Jose Reyes’ future. Introducing…
THE JOSE REYES PREDICTION CONTEST!
In the comment section, please predict the following:
- When Reyes officially signs.The person (or persons) who are closest to that date, will receive 3.5 points. (Example: If Reader A says December 2, and Reader B says December 4 and he signs on December 3, they both earn 3.5 points.)
Jose Reyes officially signed on December 7th, making Mr. North Jersey and Will’s guess of December 5th the closest, earning them each 3.5 points!
- How many years he gets (option years excluded). The person (or persons) who hit that number will receive 1 points.
Nester was the closest here and earned 1 point!
- How much he gets per year (without incentives/bonuses). The person (or persons) who come closest to that number will earn 2.5 points. (Example: Same as date, if Reader A guesses 15mil, and Reader B guesses 17mil, but Reyes gets 16… we both win unless somebody guessed 16.)
Reyes is making $17 million a year which does not include his $4m buyout option in year #7. Therefore both Nester and Mr. North Jersey earn points here!
- Where he signs +4 (only those with points from previous question can earn +4, thus its essentially a tiebreaker.)
Though some did guess Miami, the rules did state that this would only be used in case of a tiebreaker, so with that said our winner is Mr. North Jersey with 6 points! Congratulations, I’ll be in touch with Joe D on how to get you the book!
In order to submit a guess, you must reply with all four responses and have a valid e-mail address listed when you log in.
The person with the most points, will receive a copy of “Few and Chosen” by Rusty Staub.
In case of a tie, the person who earned the most points on 1 single question will be the winner. (For example, Reader A guessed the Mets, Reader B did not and he signs with the Mets, Reader A wins.)
I will start with my guess, but I will not be eligible to win the prize.
Date: December 27, 2011
Years: 5
How much Per Year: $18 million
Where He Signs: NY Mets
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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“Why would an agent come out so public, so early? Could it be that many teams see what the Mets see?”
Obviously not because Greenburg’s phone rang at 12:01, one minute after Free Agent signing period opened!
You forget the one problem with your theory on the WHO give a number first!
Reyes doesn’t NEED the Mets to get a contract!
The Mets need Reyes more than Reyes needs the Mets!
All Reyes wants to know is that the team who talks to him WANTS to sign him!
He has gotten no indication of that from Sandy and the leaks to the press from the UNNAMED MET sources tell a very different story than WE WANT YOU!
What it says is we MIGHT want you if no one else does and get can get you for peanuts!
And thats not really going to work when the first team waited up ti past midnight to get first in line for Reyes’ Services!
Not the act of an indifferent front office as the Mets seem to be at this point!
i am also wondering how cliff lee’s contract is a mistake… year 1 out he DOMINATED so.. i don’t see how is a mistake. unless jesseP can predict what will happen in the future which is a whole nother topic you know.. but whatever.
Look again he didn’t list Lee as a Mistake.
But I’m sure he might have meant to!
LOL
He’s past his prime you know!
LOL, ok, sorry about that..
with all the sadness in my heart, and i hope i am dead wrong:
Date: December 10, 2011
Years: 6 (5 years with an option)
How much Per Year: $19 million
Where He Signs: Miami Marlins
ALEX, I LIKE YOUR DATE SAME AS ACQUISITION DATE FOR CARTER I BELIEVE)(MY B’DAY) AS I’LL SUBMIT THE MORE OPTIMISTIC:
Date: December 10, 2011
Years: 5, 4+OPTION
How much Per Year: $22 million
Where He Signs: NY Mets
BTW I notice you added Crawford and Werth to the list so you could pad the mistakes.
If both play All Star Baseball in the next 3 years will that MISTAKE still ring true?
You know sample size is very small there and many FAs have bad years after moving to a new team.
Beltran did and he did just fine after that!
I notice you didn’t include him in your 100Mil contracts by the way!
I wonder why?
Interesting thing about Beltran Metsie. I did a post about a month ago that tried to look at the position players before & after they had $100M contracts and Beltran was in my opinion the most consistent in hitting and in avg games played when comparing his before & after signing of hos $100M contract.
http://realdirtymets.com/2011/10/11/a-look-at-the-100m-mlb-players-club-that-jose-reyes-may-soon-join/
What bothers me about Beltran is most people perceptions belie the facts.
They will point to his missed seasons in 2009 and 2010 but the truth is he missed 173 games total (about a season) and would have missed MUCH LESS if not for the medical bungling and lack of proper diagnosis and timely treatment of the knee!
If he had the Operation immediatly after getting hurt he would have missed half a season total! Would have been ready to go for 2010 and maybe the season is not as bad as it plays out to be!
If the Mets had their way he would have missed even MORE time if he hadn’t gona against their wishes and had the operation when he did!
Beltran earned every penny he got and would have given more if not for that medical bungling and as promising as Wheeler may be I don’t see how anything short of Cy Young is a good value for a player of Beltran’s Caliber and consistency.
Especially considering how well they were playing at the time of the trade!
And it just goes to show that the priority was more about losing the payroll than bettering the team and getting good return on your assets/money!
And whats worse is if the Marlins sign reyes all we get is a 2nd rounder from them and that is HARDLY what I call GOOD VALUE for a player like him!
But thats what it seems it going to happen if him and the marlins come to terms!
Agree on Beltran being a good free agent signing. I still though don’t have a problem with the trade when it happened. Wheeler does not need to be a CY Young in my opinion to justify losing Beltran for the remaining 59 games of the season.
I think the trade on it’s own should have returned more but as an isolated move I can’t and never have called it awful!
It only when you look at the move from the STRATEGIC standpoint of ALL the moves that it makes it much worse because it does show they are not building UP the team just tearing it down!
If they used Beltran’s money to pay Reyes I would be prefectly fine with it!
K-Rod was a far worse trade comparative to the Beltran deal!
And truth is we could sign Beltran right now if we were not more interested in Jeff’s inheritance than we are with winning!
I hear you I just don’t agree.
Can everybody PLEASE take it easy with the assumption that Jose Reyes is a Florida Marlin already? It’s getting a tad ridiculous.
Jerry Crasnick tweeted this yesterday: The #Marlins aren’t talking exclusively to Reyes. They also have Albert Pujols & Prince Fielder on their radar.
Jon Heyman reported his “Heyman hears that Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen is pushing for Prince Fielder or Pujols. The Marlins have also expressed early interest in Jose Reyes.”
I mean seriously give it a rest already! Are the Marlins suddenly signing Prince and Pujols also? Of course not.
There’s going to be several teams who discuss/plan to meet with all of these guys. It doesn’t mean he’s their property already.
And as for Beltran, please give it a rest. The man was a free agent who didn’t want to be a Met from DAY ONE. DAY ONE friends.
Did he give the Mets his all? Yes. But it was time to move on, and the shear fact they got a guy who SOME people project as their best prospect right now is a GREAT haul for a 34 year old free agent with bad knees.
It’s a wonderful thing that people think the Mets were still a legit playoff contender but lets face reality. It took an EPIC collapse for the Cardinals to even get into the playoffs.
In order for the Mets to have gotten there it would have taken not only a major collapse by Atlanta, but also St. Louis, San Francisco at MINIMUM would have had to trip over themselves down the stretch. That doesn’t even include the fact that Milwaukee, and Arizona were NOT leading their divisions at the time of the Beltran trade.
You don’t plan your future based on a hail mary. NFL teams don’t build their entire team based on 1 play in the 4th quarter and baseball teams don’t build their team based on assumptions that everybody around you will collapse and get out of your way.
The hysteria has got to stop. It’s so agenda driven that it waters down any valid point you or any of your comrades make.
I totally agree with you Jessep but I doubt it will ever end.Even if Reyes resigns with the Mets someone will complain about something else.It seems like a portion of the fanbase is rooting against the front office to succeed just so they can pat themselves on their collective backs and say I told you all along.
I can’t get too wrapped up in this shit until something is officially announced.I’ll let it play out.I still think Jose will be a Met.
Well they have outbid us for reyes services now haven’t they!
And who is to say they won’t sign reyes AND Pujols/Fielder?
They have a new stadium and for the first time since they were created now have total control of concessions in the park they play in!
Getting reyes and Fielder will go a long way to PACKING that stadium and selling lots of tickets!
Even if they wind up DOUBLING their payroll in the proccess they will still turn a profit because they will have the STAR POWER we don’t have!
No the Marlins may not have signed reyes yet…
But they are a hell of lot closer to getting him tha we are!
And what we get is a sandwich and a 2nd for our troubles!
Will you say the return will be worth it if they DO sign him?
Well it seems we agree at least on how good a Met Beltran was. We were only a game over 500 when Carlos was traded and then we won 4 straight to get to 5 games over.So it’s not like we were 10-15 games over 500 when he was traded.We hovered around 500 for most of the season after they dug themselves out of a 5-13 start.Maybe if Ike doesn’t get hurt and Johan was there that trade never happens.In my opnion getting a top pitching prospect for a guy who was leaving was more important than winning a few more games and still falling short of a postseason berth.
The Beltran trade was 2 months of Beltran and then nothing going forward Vs. not having the last 2 months of Beltran and the chance of having a #1, #2 or #3 starting pitcher up here from 2014-2020.
Very, very similar to the Mazzili – Darling/Terrel trade. Obviously not in talent given up and it remains to be seen about results realized (in Wheeler) but exactly the same in the thought process behind the trade.
Not trading Beltran wouldn’t have mean’t we were going to resign him and it also wouldn’t have prevented Reyes and Murphy from being out of the lineup shortly afterward. It also wouldn’t have resulted in Pelfrey, Bay, Thole or Parnell stepping up their games or helped Davis get back in the lineup.
It also wouldn’t have prevented Beltran from being on the DL as he was for two weeks.
I know what the fan reaction was when Mazilli got traded and it was exactly the same thing as when Beltran was dealt but sometimes forward thinking moves are required and after two decades of nothing but THIS YEAR ever being given consideration it is high time this organization started thinking about future years.
Under the absolute best case scenario if we kept Beltran we string together 5 straight wins in early August and close to 7 out of the Wild Card before Parnell/Acosta blow a couple and then we have Beltran go down (as he did) along with Reyes and Murphy and we finish a game over .500.
What good would that have done for us in 2011 or beyond?
a second guesser AND a Psychic, man talk about multi talented..
It would’ve done nothing but lower our draft position.lol… I remember how Met fans wanted Cashens head when they traded Maz.
Cashen would’ve been under the same microscope as Alderson is today had there been blogs like this one back then.It took Cashen 4 years before he put a winning team on the field.Some of the players on the 84 team were from the previous regime.
It takes time to build a winner.It’s not happening overnight.This team has a shit load of holes to be filled before we can seriously think about contending.
Nice contest idea Joe D.
Date: December 9, 2011
Years: 5
How much Per Year: $18.5 million
Where He Signs: NY Mets
Sorry, should read Jessep
Date: January 11
Years: 7
How much Per Year: 17 million
and tigers
January 5, 6 yrs, $19.5M per yr, San Francisco
marlins, 20m per yr 5 years 12/5
January 17
5 years with a 6th as an option
18.5 mill a year
NY METS
Date: December 23, 2011
Years: 6
How much Per Year: $18.5 million
Where He Signs: Milwaukee Brewers
Date: February 30th, 2012
Years: 10
How much per year: $1,969 Million
Where He Signs: The Bizarro Mets
In seriousness, It’s nice to see some people still hopeful Reyes will sign here. I want to share that hope, but… I’m not as confident as I was a few months ago.
RAMMER; NEITHER AM I
EVERY YR SINCE ’06 I’VE LOST A BET BASED UPON SEASON’S OUTCOME TO MY NYY LOVIN’ COUSIN PRIMARILY BECAUSE I’M KNOWN AS A PERRENIAL OPTIMIST MY ENTUIRE LIFE. PERHAPS U’D ENJOY READING MY LATEST PREDICTYION FOR THE 2012 SEASON, MADE AFTER READING JOHN HARPER’S LATEST ARTICLE Re. JOSE. THE ADDRESSEES WERE MJY 2 KIDS, SAID COUSIN & A LOCAL FRIEND & FELLOW DISPLACED IN NC MET FAN.
HER’S MY PROGNOSTICATIONS…
________________________________________________________________________________________If free agent Jose Reyes goes, so does NY Mets’ hope – NY Daily News BTW, ONLY AN ABSOLUTE FOOL COULD BELIEVE THE METS WERE AIMING TO BE CONTENDERS FOR NEXT YR; THERE IS A VERY FINE LINE ESP IN NYC BETWEEN BEING COMPETITIVE & BEING IN CONTENTION. UNFORTUNATELY TOO MANY THINK THE TERMS ARE INTERCHANGABLE; THEY ARE NOT!
BEING COMPETITIVE MEANS THAT IN ANY 3G SERIES THE METS CAN TAKE 2G OR THE OPPONENT CAN. USING THAT SAME ANALOGY, A CONTENDER IN THE EAST DIV SHOULD BE THE ODDS ON FAVORITE FOR 2 OF 3 NOT 50/50. A CONTENDING TEAM CAN FINISH NO WORSE THAN THIRD PLACE 5 GB; WHILE A COMPETITIVE TEAM THRESHOLD IS NO WORSE THAN FOURTH WITH A >.500 RECORD. IMO, ASSUMING ALDERSON’S IMPLICATIONS THAT REYES IS THE SOLE TOP F/A THEY’LL PURSUE. WITH REYES, THEY CAN BE COMPETITIVE IF THEY KEEP THEIR CORE (REYES,WRIGHT,DAVIS) BOTH INTACT & PLAYING A MIN OF 130G APIECE. HOPFULLY BAY CAN JOIN THAT CORE IF THE NEW DIMENSIONS WORK FOR HIM AS PLANNED(.280+, 30+HR,100+RBI) AGAIN FOR MIN OF 130G
ON THE OTHER SIDE, WITH THOSE PLAYERS THEY DO HAVE, LOSE REYES & THEY’RE NEITHER COMPETIYIVE NOR CAPABLE OF ‘PRETEND’ CONTENTION ESP WITH SUCH A MEAGER TOP OF THE ORDER THEY’LL LIKELY FASHION OUT OF LAST YR’S BOTTOM OF THE ORDER (TERJADA,PRIDIE, PAGAN) RESHUFFLED FROM 7,8 TO 1,2 IN THE ORDER.
PITCHING WILL GET A BULLPEN FACELIFT TO A MODEST DEGREE AS THEY ATTEMPT TO ACQUIRE A CLOSER FOR UNDER 5M PER. INTERNAL RESOURCES SUCH AS PARNELL & MEJIA EWILL BE GIVEN MORE THAN AMPLE OPORTUNITY( FOR TOO LONG) TO BE THE FINISHER NOT THAT THEY’LL BE A SURPLUS OF CLOSING OPORTUNITIES. SIMPLY PUT BASED UPON ALL OF THE CONJECTURE AS WELL AS ALDERSON’S OBFISCATIONS I’M PREDICTING PERHAPS 83-84Ws WITH REYES,WRIGHT,DAVIS,BAY @ 130G EA & SHOULD ANY, MOSTLY REYES /WRIGHT DEPART I’D GUESS 65Ws IS MOST LIKELY
IN ADDITION I’M PROJECTING 8 OR 9 Ws FROM SANTANA IF HE MAKES 25 OR MORE GS.
PAYROLL WITH REYES…100M
PAYROLL SANS REYES…80-85M
FINISH WITH REYES…THIRD OR FOURTH
FINISH SANS REYES FOURTH OR FIFTH(LAST)
ATTENDANCE WITH REYES…2,250,000
ATTENDANCE SANS REYES…1,110,000
I’M GOING TO TRY TO LIMIT MY PROGNOSTICATIONS TO THESE ONLY I’VE OBVIOUSLY CLEANED MY ROSE COLOR GLASSES & PLACED THEM BACK IN THE DRAWER WHERE THERY USED TO BE KEPT DURING PHILLIPS’ EARLY YRS.(PRE-’99)
65 wins would be a horror show, man.
And the attendance would drop to the lowest in years…
I bet they still wouldn’t sell the team.
RAMMER, UNFORTUNATELY I’M PAINFULLY AWARE OF THAT, HOWEVER, I CAN’T GET MY HEAD AROUND “HOW CAN THEY ACCOMODATE THE HUGE TAX DIFFERENTIAL OF 10M MORE IN NET INCOME TO JOSE ON A 5Y/110M DEAL IN FL Vs THE SAME IN NYC
IT’S TOUGH TO IMAGINE ALDERSON MATCHING SUCH AN OFFER EQUALLY; BUT THE ‘UNSPECIFIEDS’ OUT OF MNGT CONTROL IS VAST IN THIS CASE. ALSO, AS I RECALL REYES & HANLEY ARE LONG STANDING BFFs I THINK JOSE MAY HAVE BEEN HANLEY’S BEST MAN A FEW YRS BACK
FISH ARE RUIMORED TO BE INCREASING PAYROLL BY 50M WITH A PLAN TO UNASHAMEDLY INCREASE THEIR HISPANIC PRESENCE ON THE FIELD EVERY DAY WE ALL KNOW JEFFREY LORIA LOVES LITTLE BETTER THAN EATING OUR MEALS(BREAKFAST,LUNCH,DINNER) AS A, I BELIEVE, FORMER MINORITY STAKE HOLDER IN NYY TIL BOSS KICKED HIM UNCEREMONEOUSLY TO THE CURB. GEORGE HAS BEEN HIS MANIPULATION ROLE MODEL EVER SINCE
RAMMER I LEFT OUT ONE OTHER VERY DIRE PREDICTION… SHOULD NYM LOSE BOTH REYES & WRIGHT THIS OFFSEASON NEXT 10Y ATTENDANCE FIGUES @ CITI WILL MAKE THE GRANT’S TOMB ERA SEEM LIKE SHEA WAS A TOURIST ATTRACTION CREATED BY SOMEONE HAVING A RELIGOUS VISION THERE(ie LOURDES,FATIMA)!
HELL, SINCE ’62 I’VE EXPERIENCED MORE DISASTERS IN FLUSHING FRONTOFFICE PERILS THAN I CAN ANNOTATE HERE; BUT THEY LOSE BOTH; THEY LOSE ME!