Nov
22
2011

Mets 2011 Player Review: Lucas Duda, RF

An article by John Delcos

We began our review of the 2011 Mets by examining their free agents and players the team will consider tending contracts to. We started evaluating the rest of the roster, beginning with infielder Ruben Tejada and continue today with Lucas Duda. Tomorrow: Justin Turner.

LUCAS DUDA, RF

THE SKINNY: Duda is power personified. When he gets one, it goes. He’s the last Met who needs the fences brought in. Duda was brought up to play first base after Ike Davis was injured, and finished the season as the candidate to play right field this year.

PRE-SEASON EXPECTATIONS: After a brief display of his power in 2010, Duda started the season in the minor leagues as expected with the anticipation he would be brought up eventually in case of emergency, but definitely when the rosters were expanded.

HOW THE SEASON PLAYED OUT: Duda’s opportunity came when Davis injured his ankle in a collision with David Wright. After a slow start, Duda finished with 10 homers and 50 RBI in 347 at-bats. First base was totally his after Daniel Murphy was disabled, but with right field forecast as a hole because of the Carlos Beltran trade, Duda eventually got 46 games in the outfield (42 in right). He closed the season with the expectations of being first in line for right field in spring training.

JOHN’S TAKE: Personally, when it became apparent the Mets wouldn’t make the playoffs – and that came pretty early – Duda should have gotten more games in right field. He’s not a great defender and a case could be made for moving him to left and shifting Jason Bay to right field, which is a difficult position at Citi Field. The brought-in fences should help Duda at the plate, but also in the field as there will now be less room to roam. I like Duda for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was his decision to bunt when he was on a roll because that was the team thing to do. The man plays hard and deserves a chance. With his power he should at least double his home run production over a full season.

JOE’S TAKE: For some odd reason, I’ve found myself having to defend Lucas Duda on a number of occasions this offseason. Many Mets fans don’t seem to believe in him as I do as an offensive presence in the lineup. Here are the facts…

Lucas Duda was leading the league with a .597 SLG and 1.100 OPS prior to his promotion to the Mets. In his last 153 minor league games, Duda slugged 33 home runs and drove in 111 runs. He also had 48 doubles in that span. In other words 550 AB, 48, 2B, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 96 RS, 83 BB, 111 K. In five years in the minors Duda has a .286 batting average, .383 OBP, and a .473 SLG. Fluke?

After Duda was promoted this season he batted .292 in 300 AB with 21 2B, 10 HR, 50 RBI, .370 OBP and .487 SLG. As he got acclimated to the majors he kept getting better posting OPS of .711, .910, .911 and .929 from June to September to finish third in the National League that final month of the season.

Now I’m not saying Duda is the next Jim Rice or Manny Ramirez, but he could be the next Carlos Lee. It’s no coincidence I’m using left fielders as a comparison, but ultimately left field is where I see Lucas Duda settling in. And while his routes to balls and his overall defense leaves a lot to be desired, I believe he’ll get better as he becomes more acclimated.

The kid’s a keeper.

About the Author: John Delcos

I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.

14 Comments + Add Comment

any November 22, 2011 at 2:41 pm

i agree that they should just move him to LF and put bay in RF now. that is best case D if they are both playing. And Bay should consider himself lucky to even be on the field at this point! especially against RHP.

One reason I like Duda so much as a hitter is that he is more than just power. Nice controlled swing, and excellent situational hitter (stuff like adjusting to the count and point of the game, willing to go to LF if pitched outside, stuff like that). Just seems to have the mental part down. Some guys never do get that. And he came up with some big spot hits last year too.

Hopefully no slow start next year (that seemed to be an aclimation issue, so no need for that if he starts up where he finished!)

Ike and Duda can supply enough LH power. Just need the RH power hitters to do their jobs too, and the team should score some runs.
Des November 22, 2011 at 2:59 pm

They can move the fences in but I don’t really get too excited.

Duda and Ike only have to hit the ball one foot over the fence. The rest is just fun for us fans.
Original Mets Fan November 22, 2011 at 4:53 pm

Cant wait to see what he does over the course of a full season. I bet a .280, 28 HR, 88 RBI is in the offing.
Metstheory22 November 22, 2011 at 5:15 pm

I’ll take plus 25 HR and plus 85 RBI for his first full year. He does need to go to LF with Bay moving to RF.
tlagee November 22, 2011 at 5:30 pm

This next season will be key to Duda as ML pitchers will find his weaknesses and he will have to adjust. It’s this adjustment that make or break young players.

His fielding is pretty bad – the jury is still out on whether he can learn to play outfield.
- Rickeybobby November 23, 2011 at 9:54 pm
  
  I think solid point on making adjustments, i actually thin he’ll be ok, not saying wont have his slumps, im more concerned about his ‘mechanics’. Im not a hitting coach but he’s so big and his swing was somewhat sloppy when not swinging well, like in April when he was off, he was off. So i hope he doent get HIMSELF into a funk where he loses confidence. Otherwise, what esle canyou say, his #’s are sick!! I think middle of lineup of Wright, Daivs, Bay, Duda lefty-righty combo can be solid..
Mike November 22, 2011 at 6:13 pm

I like Duda alot, I think he’s going to be an all star someday.
Met Maniac November 23, 2011 at 12:45 am

Another Minaya find who outproduced Hairston, Harris, Paulino, Hu and Emaus combined. Moneyball is bang for the buck? Duda made $418K the others made $4.5M.
Alex68 November 23, 2011 at 7:59 am

i admit i was not sold on duda, but the man hold it down in the second half, where he became a stud for us. i hope him and davis can be our #3 and #4 for us the same way beltran and delgado were for years to come.
- Des November 23, 2011 at 8:56 am
  
  Duda may wind up being a good hitter but he’ll never be the all-around ballplayer that Beltran has been. Carlos was a defensive whiz, something beyond the plodding Duda’s capability.
  - Alex68 November 23, 2011 at 9:26 am
    
    Des, since i said our #3 and #4 i was referring to them in the lineup of course. come on man!!!!!!! LOL.. happy thanksgiving to your and your family des, i know we don’t see eye to eye, but i guess us going back and forth since 2008 has been a good thing compare to what’s going on know.
    - Des November 23, 2011 at 9:34 am
      
      Alex, to you and yours. HAPPY THANKSGIVING
      
      To everyone, HAPPY THANKSGIVING
SwedeMet November 23, 2011 at 11:57 am

I love Duda’s power and it will be needed in the middle of the line-up. I’ll look for 20-25 HRs and some awkward moments in the outfield.
- Alex68 November 23, 2011 at 12:00 pm
  
  LMAO.. very good swede met, very good.

NL East Standings

Team	W	L	Pct.	GB
Braves	42	28	.600	-
Nationals	34	35	.493	7.5
Phillies	34	37	.479	8.5
Mets	25	40	.385	14.5
Marlins	22	47	.319	19.5

Last updated: 06/18/2013

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