9
2011
Hope Is Not A Strategy
An article by 
Sandy Alderson was brought in here as a fixer, to clean up the mess created by the Wilpon’s financial mess and years of mismanagement on the GM level.
Since the Mets’ last World Series appearance in 2000, they have been about quick fixes. They never had a chance at Alex Rodriguez, which is just as well, but Roberto Alomar and Mo Vaughn were quick fix and gimmick signings. Ditto Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez. The thinking was that signing big names past their prime might create interest among a listless fan base and perhaps entice other players to come to New York.
Carlos Beltran said Martinez caught his attention, and for a brief window known as 2006, it appeared to work.
However, the Mets let their bullpen unravel after that season and in 2007 came the collapse. Things have been in a downward spiral since. Good money was thrown away after bad and the expensive acquisitions of of Johan Santana, Jason Bay and Francisco Rodriguez came at the expense of building a young, talented core.
All were thought, to some degree, as being the missing piece, but in hindsight, there were just too many of those missing pieces. They did create, however, some excitement and anticipation. They created an illusion of progress.
The Mets’ payroll continued to spiral out of control without procuring the necessary talented. The team did not draft or trade well, and coupled with injuries and poor performance, they are staring at rock bottom.
Alderson was brought in at the urging of Commissioner Bud Selig to fix the mess – which explains why MLB is in no hurry to get back its $25 million loan – and it starts with the shedding of payroll.
A team often gets rid of its expensive pieces before it prepares itself for sale, and it is not out of the question that this is a possibility despite the Mets’ public cries to the contrary. We will never know if the Wilpons decide to sell until after the Ponzi mess created by Bernie Madoff passes. (I wonder who will play Fred and Jeff Wilpon in the movie).
One of those expensive pieces is Jose Reyes and another is David Wright. I see no hope of retaining Reyes, but I also see why Alderson is sticking to the pretext of being competitive and eventually make an offer.
There’s no way Alderson will publicly kiss Reyes good-bye while the team is trying to sell season tickets for next year. To give up on 2012 before Thanksgiving is bad business.
Realistically, without Reyes – assuming a healthy version – and the probability of not having Santana, along with their horrid pitching staff, there’s no realistic expectations of the Mets competing for at least another three years.
Hopefully, in three years the Mets’ finances will be resolved, and they will be without the burdensome contracts of Bay and Santana. In that time span perhaps Reyes will have broken down and the Mets could gleam some vindication with that prospect. Wright could also be gone. Maybe some of those young pitchers in the minors will pan out.
All that is a lot to hope for.
Can anybody really say what the Mets might look like by then? The Mets will still be here by then, but how many of you will have the same passion for them?
To think they will be anything representative before then is being naive.
Thoughts From Joe D. – I get the feeling that there’s always a dark cloud over the Mets. We used to be such an optimistic fanbase, but the last few years including this one has seen a divided (and divisive) fan base.
You have some fans that just lean back and will simply wait five more years to be competitive, and those who say 25 years is long enough.
I said this before, but I have no idea what Alderson’s strategy is. He doesn’t speak plainly enough for me. Ironically, I know exactly what Ruben Amaro Jr.’s strategy is as well as Mike Rizzo from the Nats. Mostly because they both recently came right out and said it. In case you haven’t heard, both are focused on going to the playoffs in 2012, and just for good measure, Davey Johnson echoed his GM’s stated goal a few days later.
I wish I knew what Sandy Alderson meant when he said the Mets plan was not punting in 2012.
I asked two of my writers Robert and Clayton to tell me what they thought it meant… I asked two other Mets sites what they thought… I asked two followers on Twitter as well… Their responses were as follows:
- It means we’re not going for it on 4th down – 1
- It means I haven’t kept up with the latest metaphors – 1
- I haven’t a clue – 4
- It means the Mets are contending in 2012 – 0
I voted for the last to which one Tweep said: The problem with most fans and obviously you are one of them is you believe PR bull****. I can see through it for what it really is. Thanks to Lou for that.
It’s hard to get pumped up when you don’t know where your going. Being told we are going in a different direction isn’t enough for me. If the Titanic had not changed directions things might have been different. We changed the names on some doors in the executive offices, but I still don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel.
What if Familia, Wheeler and Harvey turn out to be Pelfrey, Maine and Perez? Those were a first rounder, a top ranked pitching prospect, and a highly touted IFA who all came up with high hopes too. There are dozens more examples than just those three…
How far is hope going to carry us? What kind of strategy is hope?
Just some food for thought…
About the Author: John Delcos
I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.
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Jeff? If it was 1940 I would say Moe Howard.
as to not punting? to me, punting is pretty much the same as rebuilding, as in just going with the Pirate/KC model (put the prospects out to learn on the job, and don’t bother to try and fill any holes with veteran talent).
Ah, the Howard, Fine, Howard combo. Like a 3-6-3 double play…
Once! Just once I would love to hear the words “winning” or “post season” or “championship caliber” come out of Mr. Alderson’s mouth. Just once! I know Omar Minaya was guilty of always saying “meaningful games in September” but hey at least for 4 of his 6 seasons we actually played meaningful games in September. Of course the team choked in 07 and 08 and we missed the post season by one lousy game each time, but we were right there. All the way up to that last day we were in the thick of it. We all know how 2006 ended thanks to Heilman the real culprit not Beltran. But just once I’d love to hear this GM talk about winning, just once!
Alderson’s style is deliberately like that of lawyer in litigation or in public relations,, roundabout, evasive, intellectually-sounding but one who utters words that chew up time but really don’t answer anything.
As far as 2006, to place blame on singular events that disappoint such as Beltran’s called strike three or Heilman’s trouble’s, is scapegoating to target anger and not an accurate accounting of a game that’s 9 innings in a series that went 7 games. Every out, every pitch, every defensive opportunity from the first pitch to the last, has importance on both sides of the ball for both teams. The totality of each and every event determines the outcome, the big picture which ultimately win and loses games.
Seriously? This team is in full Rebuild/Retool modr and you want Alderson to mention Championships and post season? I actually prefer to be told I’m being pee’d on vs. someone saying “it’s just hot rain, don’t worry about it.”
If it isn’t understood that the goal of every team/GM is to produce a team that will win the world series, then I’m not sure what to tell you.
He wouldn’t say those words because this isn’t a championship caliber team, and a good general manager shouldn’t be concerned with short term goals without regard to the future of the organization. I know we’re used to the offseason excitement of signing big time free agents every year, but that just isn’t a viable plan. You need to build a farm. Depth is key.
Minaya could build “championship” teams, he couldn’t build a roster, and he couldn’t build an organization. He was a fan’s GM, and that is just no good.
Lay low until the Phils get old and brittle and have too big a payroll to improve the team.
I think the real problem is that Sandy himself doesn’t know. The Wilpon finances are in a state of flux – an incredible mess. The Wilpons don’t know how much they can spend so how would Sandy know.
The Reyes thing seems to be a holding pattern to sell season tickets for next year. I doubt they will sign him now.
Imagine having arguably the most exciting player in the game – the current NL batting champ – a home grown player just entering his prime – with the team being in the number one market – and no one has a clue whether they can afford him.
Sorry, but Fred is respondsible for this mess and there is a quick remedy – he sells the team. Why all Mets fans have to suffer because Fred got hoodwinked is beyond me.
The last guy told us his strategy in simple language. Build the farm, get younger, focus on speed and defense.
How did that work?
And Ruben Amaro’s strategy is keep the guys Pat Gillick brought up and over pay them until they are useless or trade them away.
“What if Familia, Wheeler and Harvey turn out to be Pelfrey, Maine and Perez?”
Then we go with Fulmer, Mejia, Mazoni, Leathersich etc etc. That is why you build depth. In fact, one of the big changes the new administration brought was not rushing guys up to sell a few tickets and build some hype.
“How far is hope going to carry us? What kind of strategy is hope?”
Hope is grabbing whatever free agent is available and praying he fills your needs. Building a farm system with depth that can provide prospects to either promote or trade is due diligence and requires a lot more work.
And I’m wondering what kind of plan involves that Jayson Werth deal.
Seriously, GMs and managers and such say things all the time to placate the masses desperate for a sound bite.
Maybe Alderson just respects us too much to treat us like idiot masses.
Can’t hit the thumbs up button anymore but a thumbs up.I wish everyone understood the need to add depth to the system.That hasn’t been emphasized here since Cashen was GM.
I don’t think Alderson is so sure of what the strategy is either. He was so open last winter after taking over, making sure the fanbase was kept informed of what his intentions were as far as what he intended to do. So far this offseason? Nothing. Except for saying he’s going to “let the market set itself” for Jose Reyes. While I agree he shouldn’t open up the bidding with a huge offer and risk the bidding getting out of control, not making an offer sends the message to Reyes and his agent that maybe they aren’t as serious about bringing him back as they claimed they were. What happens if Reyes gets an offer from the Marlins that he can’t turn down and chooses “NOT” to bring it back to the Mets (as Alderson asked them to do)? How will he explain to the fan base that Reyes signed elswhere before they had a chance to counter the offer to bring him back?
Well 86 if Jose is true to his word that the Mets are still his 1st choice he will come back to the Mets with that offer and say beat it or at least match it or I’m going to sign with Miami.If he just take the 1st offer he gets then he was full of shit and he ddn’t want to be a Met first and foremost.He’ll come back with his offer.
I clearly remember having similar conversations about Omar a few years back. We, as a fan base, are very impatient, and yes there are many variables that would support why that is, but despite being a NY team, we are NOT the NY Yankees, we are the NY Met.
Since no signings of any significance has not been done in MLB yet, I’ll be happy to step away from ledge for a while. I prefer hard facts, not assumptions and rumors. Despite being saturated with media and blogs, we still don’t know anymore today than we did in early November of the seasons 1970′s, 80′s or even early 90′s.
I blame sites like MLB Trade Rumors and journalists (use that term loosely) like Heyman and Rosenthal. They sensationalize every minor development and blur the line between speculation and news.
Heyman used to be pretty accurate as far as predicting where free agents would end up but the last few years he just assumes everybody is signing with the Yankees.He basically gauranteed Cliff Lee was signing with the Yanks and never even mentioned Philly as a possibility until just before they signed him.I don’t know whether his sources have changed but for whatever reason you’re better off guessing where these guys are landing yourself.Buster Olney is still very reliable.
Well, we et it up, too. Look how fast we jump on “an unnamed official familiar with team A says player B may have spoken with GM C and they may have said $D/E years”
Or how when we learn something new about a process or situation that may be completely innocuous or standard and we blow it up because we were unaware of it before. Like draft picks not even negotiating until a few days before the signing deadline. People just assumed Alderson had let Nimmo go. It turns out it was pretty SOP.
I really can’t stand Heyman…he’s a * expletive deleted* who is running his mouth off every second he gets about some rumor or theory. If you really look into everything he says, he’s just an arrogant little punk.
As for the hope, I’m hoping that Sandy isn’t just stripping down the team to save money, sell it or whatever the current theories are.
I’m hoping that what ever happens with Wilpon’s, it doesn’t destroy this franchise for several years. Say what you want about the Wilpon’s, they do love this team and NY. They do want to win. Now they may not know how to win, or at least have gotten bad advice and/or bad luck. But not every Owner in baseball really cares about winning, it’s more about making a profit.
Despite how the season ended, if Sandy didn’t “punt” at the All Star Break, I’m pretty sure this team would have finished over %500. I’m sure we would have been in the WC race. If we had a healthy Santana, Ike, Wright and Murphy for most of the season, then we would have been possibly a 90+win team.
Now the problem comes in, that every year we have a “if player(s) X, Y and Z stayed healthy, we would have won more games.” Sadly, many of these injuries could be predicted….Pedro, Floyd, Alou and El’ Duque (aka DL’uque) are players who all had injury concerns. Losing Wags, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Sanchez among others aren’t so predictable. Who knew that we’d lose Ike for a full year? Who know that Wright would miss 1/3 of the season?
I really think Omar was a victim of his own success. Because the team did so well so quickly, he never had the chance to build up the farm. He was always looking for that one last piece and the farm had nothing for him to replenish with, so he could have waited and developed or took a shot at winning. Sadly for us Omar struck out, the team started to panic and signed big contracts and kept players playing even though they should have hit the DL.
The real questions is…is this team really 3-4 years away from competing? Is this team really that bad? Can we really afford to let our best players leave? This team won’t get people to watch unless you give them a real reason to watch. How can they ever make money if they don’t plain on spending a little?
I have been rooting for the mets since ’62. Think there were not dry spells along the way. It has been mostly dry spells. Why would a real fan abandon his team?
Both sides here are optimists and pessimists…
Only where those two feelings are pointed is where they differ.
Optimists on one side feel good about:
Davis, Duda, Tejada, Gee, Niese, Havens, Harvey, Familia, Flores, Capt Kirk etc…
The other side is pessimistic about those guys and the guys on the MLB squad!
They are optimistic regarding Wheeler and Nimmo and just about anything Sandy does, and that spending less means winning more! They are optimistic a team they deem a TEAR DOWN can survive minus FOUR all Stars! But two guys in A ball can fix it right up!
The first group is pessimistic about that, the fact that we don’t seem to be buying smart just buying SHORT at KMART, pessimistic about the spreadsheet trumping the scouting report, the chances we can win without 4 All Stars in the next decade and even some are as pessimistic (at minimum not as optimistic) regarding Wheeler and Nimmo as others are for our other Minor Leaguers who are about to or already have been promoted to the MLB Squad!
So there is plenty of optimism and pessimism to go aorund!
There is really only ONE difference between the two sides!
One wants to continue to build the MLB squad and one is more concerned with the MiL squad!
And the MiLers are ready to sell off the MLB squad to do that! REady to let All Stars go for minimal return or sandwich 2nd rounders to attain their goal!
Both are pessimistic about the MLB squad but for very different reasons.
One thinks it sucks and needs to be built from the Minors and the other side thinks it sucks because it is being used to build the Minors!
And thats the only real difference between the two sides!
I’m optimistic that Wright and Bay can rebound and Santana, Murph and Ike can rebound from injury and perform well.
I’m optimistic that Thole, Parnell and Duda can become positive influences on the W/L record.
I’m optimistic that somehow, Sandy decides that keeping Reyes is the best move.
I’m optimistic in the hope that the Farm actually isn’t that bad and has better talent than the haters give it credit for.
I’m realistic that it’s a long shot that both Bay and Wright can ever give us +30HRs and +100RBI.
I’m realistic that Santana may never be the same pitcher again and Murph may never get a chance to play everyday and Duda may be a weak fielder with an inconsistent bat. Maybe Ike never becomes the star we all hope we is.
I’m realistic that a payoff spot in 2012 is unlikely.
I’m pessimistic because it seems like or “genius” GM is slashing payroll (either to save money to rebuild or to help Fred pay off MLB or to sell the team).
I’m pessimistic that we are going to lose two of our all time great home grown players walk away and have the team give us a BS “they got more than we could afford someplace else” response.
I’m pessimistic when I hear that we are 3-4 years away from wining.
I’m pessimistic in hearing that Sandy want’s to win cheep and then when fans come back, invest in talent, instead of (wisely) investing in talent to make a winner and have the fans come back.
I’m not going to stop watching them if they lose…I’ve watched almost every night the past seven years no matter how they were doing, until this year once Sandy “punted” on the season. I’ve got better things to do than watch a team that isn’t trying it’s best to win.
And don’t tell me that a team in NY has to go through a 3-4 rebuilding period. Omar took a very bad team (with no prospects in the system) and turned it around pretty quickly and it wasn’t just by spending money, his payroll took a few years to spiral out of control.
No no no no, you’ve been corrected a shown wrong over and over and still you insist on saying these things.
First of all, there is a huge difference being pessimistic about the team and being realistic about their situation.
Second, no one says spending less means winning more. But spending badly means losing a lot more for a long time. That is what we want to avoid. Some people here seem more concerned about keeping a $140 million + payroll than they are about having a winning organization. Because it is demonstrated constantly that winning isn’t about how much/little you pend, but how wisely you spend. Yet, I keep reading “Small Market Sandy” and “I can’t believe a New York team is cutting payroll!”
The real difference is some people want to see a winning franchise and other want to yell and attack a guy who was mentioned in a book they’ll never read.
Yeah pessimists ALWAYS claim they are being realistic!
Optimists say they are being realistic too!
Tell me pessimist are we going to win MORE games without Reyes?
Is that REALISTIC?
Rephrase that like a civilized adult, and then you’ll get a discussion.
When you start posting responses like a civilized adult maybe someone will talk to you as if you are one!
Your just a lot of bluster, lies and childish snark!
You want to be treated better then EARN the priviledge!
Nope, you still can’t do it. Please stop addressing me. I want civilized discussion with adults.
I’m not addressing you I’m EXPOSING you!
I asked you to stop addressing me. I’m looking for civilized discussion with an adult. You are not satisfying any of those conditions.
I’m not addressing you I’m UNDRESSING you!
As the guy who demands answers but provides none and choses to run away from questions when they are proposed!
An ADULT would extend the SAME COURTESY I extended to you by answering your questions and answer mine!
You refused and went onto the STOP TOUCHING ME defense!
Very Very Mature!
I asked you to stop addressing me until you can have an adult conversation. that means not starting responses with “ok, I’ll talk to the kids”.
And believe me, you reveal way more about yourself by the way you act than you ever reveal about anyone else.
What I revealed is your afraid of the questions!
Afraid to answer!
AFRAID to debate when the debate challenge is given!
AFRAID to answer question for fear of being EXPOSED as WRONG!
Run Away little boy!
Unless you want to rise to the occassion and answer my questions!
Metsie, why do you keep wasting your time?? leave it alone man.. that guy brings nothing to the table!!!