5
2011
A New York Payroll: Part Deux?
Yesterday, I read over Matt Cerrone’s post entitled, “What is a New York payroll?“. Great question, right? And one that is certainly worthy of debate, and I can’t wait to dig my teeth into this one.
Cerrone’s piece was spurred on by a series of tweets by Adam Rubin who said the following:
If Mets decision on Jose Reyes is based purely on another team making astronomical offer, so be it. But Mets decision likely will be more influenced by operating at a non-New York payroll, which is a shame. Point being that Sandy Alderson talks a lot about payroll “flexibility.” Can’t be argued that higher payroll lowers % devoted to any player.
And since everything is an extreme in NY & we’ve concluded Reyes is always injured, games played/year since 05: 161,153,160,159,36,133,126. This is little misleading, but it’s my stat, so I’m entitled: Of 2,614 players to appear in MLB since ’05 Reyes ranks 53rd in games played.
Consider it this way: If you were going to make a mistake and write off the back end of a contract, wouldn’t you prefer it be Reyes and not the outside guys Mets have signed? But no payroll flexibility/middle-market spending doesn’t allow for what Yankees/big boys do. It’s a cost of doing business in the big city…at least until you have your farm system regularly churning out talent, which is the end game.
No one can tell me Jose Reyes vs Ruben Tejada is even a debate. It’s just a question of payroll constraints. I’m not advocating reverting to Minaya days of disregard for back end of contracts. But is this the one we’re really drawing the line on? And why-because payroll set too low?
As soon as these comments hit, the Mets twitterverse was ablaze with “Rubin hates the Mets” and assorted predictable gibberish from the usual suspects that are unwilling to face the reality of the situation.
What Rubin did was simply point out, in the most objective of ways, the real problem with these new Moneyball Mets – a team that keeps shedding it’s best talent as the months go by – even about to divest themselves from their farm system’s best-produced prospect in the last quarter century. The problem here is not Adam Rubin. The problem here is that the truth freaking hurts… That the truth totally sucks… And few fans are willing to admit it…
Getting back to Cerrone’s piece, I mostly agreed with his conclusions, but had a problem with his opening statement that went like this:
Here’s the reality: The St. Louis Cardinals won a World Series in 2006, stripped down the team, shuffled in 21 new players, then won another World Series five seasons later (while also making the playoffs in 2009) and did it while never spending more than $105 million in a single season (despite one player occupying a quarter of that money). The point is, what Sandy is trying to do is not impossible.
I don’t get that… Whose reality is that? Certainly not the Mets… You want reality, here’s some reality the way I see it…
The Cardinals stripped down the team, shuffled in 21 new players then won another World Series?
What does that even mean and what does it have to do with determining a New York Payroll?
I’d bet anything that all the other 29 teams have shuffled in 21 or more new players in the last five years too…
There’s so many things wrong with that statement, I hardly know where to begin, but let me start here…
The Cardinals did not strip down their team.
They committed themselves to their 2006 core players; Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina – and did so at a cost of over $200 million dollars in contracts.
They replaced So Taguchi in left field with free agent Matt Holliday at a cost of $120MM, and this season they brought in Lance Berkman for $12 million dollars.
The Cardinals remained committed to their core players and supplemented them by spending six-figures on Matt Holliday and bringing in Lance Berkman for another $12 million annually. That is why they won… Sprinkle in some role players and and a few average to above average arms form your minors and voila`… Nothing wrong with that…
If only the Mets were as committed to their core players as the Cardinals were. If only the Mets had signed better free agents like Holliday and Berkman, instead of Jason Bay and the now defunct Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez.
The Cardinals operated with a payroll that was at the top of their scale for the market they operate in. The Mets on the other hand fall woefully short.
Lets talk about a New York payroll…
Only in baseball do fans think it’s okay to compare the wages of a stockbroker in Boise, Idaho with a stockbroker on Wall Street. Does the term “cost of living index” mean anything to you?
Must everything be so black and white and simplistic for some to wrap their brains around it?
To say “the Cardinals did it, hence the Mets can do it too”, is something I expect to hear from my 10-year old nephew, not from anyone with a deep understanding of the game, the economy and the markets that teams operate in.
So what is a New York payroll?
For one, it should probably have a higher maximum ceiling than a payroll in let’s say – Missouri… or Wisconsin…
Why is it okay for the Mets to have 50% higher ticket prices than the St. Louis Cardinals, but not a 50% higher payroll? What’s up with that?
So basically a lot of these new-fangled fans with their new-fangled ideas, think it’s okay to pay more dollars per ticket and yet expect a comparatively lesser product on the field?
Sorry, not me…
Call me a Moneyball Fan…
No, not in the way you’re thinking!
I’m not referring to the Billy Bean/Sandy Alderson way of accruing talent err players.
Call me a Moneyball fan because I want to see MORE BANG for MY BUCKS from my baseball team.
More than anything else Moneyball is about one thing: exploiting market inefficiencies, right?
Guess what, “spending money” is the new market inefficiency for the Mets. Let’s do something about that.
Stop blaming high payroll for the Mets problems – and start understanding that it was spending on the wrong players that got the Mets in this quagmire… Along with some bad luck and historic injuries to go with that.
* * * * *
One other note:
We supposedly have a GM who is rumored to be somewhat of a genius. However, the only trades he has made so far were only geared to shed the team of it’s most productive players. The only signings we’ve made have been reclamation projects and re-threads from the back of the emergency room. We are about to lose our number one core player and he will soon become another team’s core player. I’m sorry Mr. Alderson, but you were no Sweet Genius in 2011.
But don’t worry, round one is over and here comes round two…
Better luck this time.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Time out really quick here. On your aside at the end of the article, you said Alderson ‘s “only trades…so far were only geared to shed the team of it’s [sic] most productive players.”
I won’t argue that Frankie and Beltran weren’t productive (because they, obviously, were), but I think you’re just seeing what you want to see. Both trades were to improve the team long-term by (a) getting us something for Beltran before he walked in October and (b) getting us out from under that huge option that Frankie had for 2012. I agree that he hasn’t signed anyone significant or taken any risks in signings or trades, but he did do what GMs of sub-.500 teams need to do at the deadline, which is trade what becomes a rental player for prospects (and even got one of our new top prospects out of it).
I’m not saying “Alderson is a genius” or that he can’t do wrong (if and when Reyes leaves, it shouldn’t be long after that we’ll find out who is to blame for a lack of attempt at being competitive), I’m just pointing out the flaw in the shot you took.
Drew I agree. Those Trades were intended to improve the team longterm, something that may or may not ever happen. Small market teams make trades like this every season. But this is New York – we need an top of the rotation starter now, not five years from now. During his initial press conference Alderson made two promises; 1. 2011 was not a throw-away. 2. Moneyball approach was for Oakland and New York gives me a lot more money to work with than Oakland. Two different animals.
Somehow, 2011 didn’t jibe with either of those statements. 2011 was treated like a throwaway and we certainly haven’t acted differently than Oakland.
I fully agree with you. I also think, though, that any time you’re in a position where you’re out of it near the deadline (or close enough), it’s unwise to NOT make trades like that if you can get something decent out of it.
I would much rather see the Mets spend and land a few good free agents every year (or some years or most years), and I completely agree with you that what Alderson said before 2011 turned out to be a lie (the first half I blame on him, the second half I blame half on him and half on ownership until I can be certain of which it was). However, to say that I’d rather lose Beltran to free agency and have had a few extra wins in 2011 instead of getting what we got in return would be foolish.
Of course I wanted the Mets to be in the Playoffs in 2011 and of course I didn’t want to see Beltran go, but to say that I’d have rather finished 80-82 instead of having (what is viewed as) our top prospect Zack Wheeler just so we didn’t lose Beltran for an extra 2 months is foolish.
I fully get your point, and I agree with it, but I just don’t think that writing off the Beltran trade as strictly a salary dump or as something big market teams shouldn’t do is just incorrect in my opinion.
Name the long term improvement we achieved with the Beltran and k-Rod trades please…
I’m curious as to what LONG TERM help we got other than the unproven Wheeler who looks good but has yet to face a MLB hitter?
Him and what else?
Wheeler is long-term help. Even if you choose to ignore his ranking within the system, simple probability (not sabremetrics, not any baseball stat, just simple math) states that the more might-be-good-quality arms you have, the more likely at least one of them is to make it.
Most prospects miss. That’s a simple fact. Many top prospects miss, and we have seen plenty of examples of that in Flushing (or, rather, not make it to Flushing in many cases). HOWEVER, I’d rather have 10 arms that I think might make it than 1 arm or 2 arms or 3 arms … to better our chances that at least one of them makes it.
Even if Wheeler doesn’t make it, adding depth to our prospect pool can only help; it’s why you Draft and why you keep young guys on your Minor League teams instead of 30 year-olds.
No one knows which – if any – prospect in the Mets system will become a big league staple, otherwise we wouldn’t need to try and have depth because we’d know who would work out and who wouldn’t. But until that crystal ball people like to talk about becomes available in stores, I’ll stick with enjoying having as many might-be-good prospects as we can in the hopes that 10% of them make it to Citi Field in the orange and blue one day.
Ok Wheeler and what else says LONG term to you?
Wheeler is a good maybe I won’t deny him that.
But I don’t see how he makes YEARS from now all that much better by himself!
It’s an odds thing (read the second half of my response just below this). It’s not that HE will, it’s that having depth in the minors (which is what adding him adds to) WILL help for YEARS down the line. All it takes is one Jose Reyes or David Wright or Tim Lincecum from a group to make having every bust, wash-out, has-been, never-was and never-will-be worth adding to the roster.
I’m not confident that Wheeler will be our Tim Lincecum down the line, but I am more confident that we will be able to have one with every could-be-good pitching prospect we add.
For every group of failed prospects, there’s a gem. For every group of prospects we’ve raved about only to see them fall flat, there’s a Jose Reyes or David Wright. For every top draft choice we’ve never seen in Flushing, there’s a Buster Posey earning his way to the top of the mountain in a snap. For every late-round pick that we completely ignored because who in their right minds watches all of a 389,000-round draft, there’s a Tim Lincecum (1,408th overall).
I’m not saying Wheeler will make it, and the odds would say he won’t. But, if given the choice and it didn’t cost you anything (which, face it, Wheeler didn’t), wouldn’t you rather play an extra number in a game of roulette? Only 1 out of 38 will win, so wouldn’t you rather play 10 numbers than 9?
Yes Drew for every group of Prospects less than 5% are gems!
So in Reyes’ case we are giving up a KNOWN QUANTITY for a 5% chance one of two picks might be as good as him.
If I said to you give me $1000 bucks and you have a 5% chance of doubling your money would you take those odds?
Would you do it even at a 10% chance?
Every hear the phrase “A bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush!”?
I completely agree. I firmly believe that letting Reyes go would be a huge mistake. I’m specifically talking about Beltran for Wheeler.
Beltran was no longer of use to the Mets, while Reyes is. Beltran was at the point where keeping him would only have cost us (he was too old to think we were about to re-sign him long-term and, with months left on his contract, we needed to get SOMETHING out of his last months under contract other than a few what-turned-out-to-be meaningless wins). So we got what we could out of Beltran and moved on. With Reyes, there’s still 7-10 years that we can and should get out of him.
Don’t take my logic on 34 year-old Beltran and try and say I’m saying it about 28 year-old Reyes.
Big payroll means absolutely nothing for the Mets. How many years have the Mets had one of the top payrolls in baseball? Most of the last two decades. How many championships have they had? One. Two Wild Cards. ZERO world series championships. Big payroll has rarely helped the Mets and since fans don’t care about the team anyways why waste a big payroll on something that won’t bring in money for the owners? I am sick of the NYC argument. Hardly any of the players even live in the city so the living expense argument is stupid. All MLB players make more than enough to live on. NYC has the reputation for overpaying because of the Yankees. But the Mets aren’t the Yankees. The Yankees can afford a huge payroll because they are consistant winners. The Mets haven’t won the World Series since 86 and have only made the playoffs 4 times since then. The Mets need to make an actual plan instead of just wasting money year after year and not getting anything out of it. Fans might be pissed but really NYers are always pissed about something so the Mets better start ignoring these fans (who don’t want to go to games anyways) and start planning for the future.
There you go watching my point sail right over your head….
Mets spent poorly that’s the problem, not that they spent.
If you want a small payroll team in New York, go watch the Bisons, B-Mets or Cyclones.
This is the major leagues.
Yes, yes, yes, Joe! I love this sentence in your piece: “Only in baseball do fans think it’s okay to compare the wages of a stockbroker in Boise, Idaho with a stockbroker on Wall Street.”
Exactly! NY fans are asked to pony up lots of $$ for Mets’ tickets, etc. while the management is making the product more and more inferior. Would one pay the same amount for a Maserati and a Mini Cooper? How about paying the same price for a ticket to Broadway play or a road-company show in Syracuse?
Why do we have to be “understanding” about the Wilponzis’ lack of funds? And why are revenues down so much? Because of bad decisions, failure to go overslot, low budgets for NYC, and lots more. Revenues WILL continue to go down, when Reyes is in Washington or Detroit and when the Mets’ rotation has Pelfrey in it.
Remember that sign that used to sit on Harry Truman’s desk? The one that said “The buck stops here. Fred Wilpon needs to blow a copy of that up to cinema-screen size and hang it about 3 feet in front of his nose. HE is theone responsible for this team being so bad for so long.Why? Because, if he didn’t make the decisions, he signed off on them. That doesn’t change while Selig is Commissioner. He’ll never let his buddy Fred lose his team, no matter how broke Fred is. Maybe when Selig retires, we can get a new owner, one that can afford to run a team in the largest metro area in the country!
You hit the problem square on the head. It is the Wilpons. They need to give up this team and sell it to someone who can afford to own it. They refuse to face reality and until they do, this team will be mired in the second division competing for the cellar. They need to go immediately.
I think there is more more point you could have made Joe that people don’t even think about but is a KEY to why some can spend less, others can spend MORE and others yet can spend more despite not having the market some other teams have to draw on!
Who is the main competitive draw for St Louis?
Kansas City?
Who is the main competitive draw for the Mets? The HIGHEST SPENDING TEAM in the MLB!
Add Broadway, 5 Star restaurants, the best and most prestigious museums in the country if not the world!
Lots of things to do in NYC that are NOT baseball and if you DO decide you want to go see a baseball game your more likely to go see CC Sabathia pitch than Cris Capuano no?
We talk about how spending hurt our finances but those finances were fine WHILE we were spending on the best players available! Made TONS of money!
But then they choked, got hurt, people started to go toehr places do other things than see the Mets. Jason Bay is hardly even an All Star (he went once years ago I believe) let alone any major baseball star.
He was not going to put fannies back in the seats, Not while CC and Granderson was playing in the Bronx. Not while there are plenty of other STAR DRIVEN activities to go see in the biggest city on the planet!
St Louis doesn’t need to spend 200 Million to get people to go see them!
THEY ARE IT as far as things to do in StLouis!
No other team to compete with, No other Major broadway stars on their version of Broadway! And if there is it is a limited engagement at best!
Atlanta too is a ONE TEAM TOWN!
Same for the Phillies!
Boston as well!
Milwaulkee has no other team drawing their fans away!
People say WINNING brings people into the stadium not Stars!
Well why is that true?
Because if the team is winning you PROBABLY have some STARS that have yet to be CALLED stars, will be very soon (the moment they become free agents) and people want to go SEE those guys play!
Oakland managed to find a TON of stars playing moneyball yet their draw never got better and does anyone ever wonder why?
It’s because MAKING stars is not as much of a draw as KEEPING stars!
Reyes might get paid 20+ mil and he will generate 30+ mil in revenue by people going to see him!
Our financial issue is due to LACK OF ATTENDANCE!
You fix that buy having players people want to go see play baseball!
Not spending 20+ mil doesn’t save you 20+ mil it COSTS you that 10+ Mil he was drawing to the stadium!
And to prove that go look at the attendance figures of the FREE Shakespear in the Park compared to for pay Shakespear with Ian McKellen playing the lead!
Guess who draws more despite the higher ticket sales?
THIS is the point the Slashers don’t seem to get!
Head so buried in the Spreadsheet that they have no clue about how much MARKETING plays in the ;largest city in the country and how important it is to drawing people into the seats that pay the bill!
Exactly, Metsie! The Wilponzis and Buddy Selig need to go! We need an owner like Detroit, Washington, and (soon) the Dodgers will have (Mark Cuban?).
Boycott the Wilponian Mets, I say!
I have been for 2 years.More and more need to follow.
Last season was the first time that I attended NO Mets game. I will not attend ever again as long as the Wilponzis own this team.
The stadium is half empty, yet they are adding seats behind the new shorter OF wall. Why spend money on seating when you can’t fill the stadium anyway? Just another example of how misguided this leadership is.
The other thing Matt Cerrone forgets is that St. Louis backed in because the Atlanta Braves collapsed and choked! heehee
Boy, Omar Minaya sure did a number on you!
Anyone who expecting anything from the Mets this offseason needs to remind themselves of a simple truth.
The Mets are broke. Period.
That means Pittsburgh is in better financial shape, as is Cleveland, Kansas City, and Oakland. All of them can pay their players and their bills. The Mets can barely do either.
This team is the singular least financially stable team in the league. It’s not even close.
They are literally on life support and are kept in business because a friendship between the owners and the Commissioner.
And this is not like the Texas Rangers situation of a couple of years ago. Hicks went broke and sold the team in the course of a year, and that team only played a month or two ( April-May 2009 ) with the prospect of a broke dude hoping against hope to retain ownership despite not having the money for it.
This Wilpon s**t is now coming up on year 4. Yes it’s been 3 years of having owners who think they can still afford to own a baseball team, but really can’t.
Broke teams can win, and perhaps the Mets will be one of them. But anyone who is moaning about not making deals in the offseason, or re-signing Reyes is missing the basic fact that the Mets are no longer players in this market. They tried to put on a brave face in 2010 by signing Jason Bay – I wouldn’t look for them to do something like that again while the Wilpons are around.
Well said Francis!
Francis, You are right on. This offseason will be one for weeping by Mets fans. Reyes will be gone as they will not give him a competitive offer because they do NOT WANT HIM on the team any longer. They are simply waiting for a lucrative offer from a financially sound team that they will not match. There will be no quality players coming to the Mets this offseason. The budget will continue to be ratcheted down as players exit and are replaced by glue factory jobs. The simple fact is that the Wilpons continue to see the Mets as a source of cash to fund their failing enterprise. There will be no funding invested in the Mets by ownership. They need to sell out and refuse to see the light due to Fred’s pig-headed attitude.
Alderson may not be a genius, and quite frankly nobody ever said he was, but his improvement over Omar Minaya is immeasurable. Gone is all the lack of communication. Gone are all the embarrassing moments. Gone are all those atrocious backloaded contracts. Gone are all those years of horrendous drafts. Gone is the checkbook managing style and bloated payrolls. Hasta la vista Omar.
This.
Anyone who doesn’t get the main point of ‘it’s not how much they spent but what they spent it on’, wasn’t paying attention.
Throwing good money after bad got us nowhere fast.
Wilpons are broke – period.
Not signing Reyes is throwing out the baby with the bath water.
Unless some GM out there offers him 7/150MIL, the Mets need to get this done.
word.
Immeasurable? Would that be because it’s non existant?
horrendous drafts?
2005: niese, Pelfrey, Parnell, and Thole.
2006: Murphy and Joe smith
2007 Duda and Gee
2008 Ike Davis.
That’s not “horrendous”. Let’s compare those same years against the two WS series teams last year.
Rangers 2005 draft: Mayberry and Teagarden
2006: Holland and Chris Davis
2007: Hunter, Borbon, Moreland, and Beavan.
2008: Smoak.
Cards 2005 draft: Rasmus and Garcia.
2006: A Craig, Perez, and Jay.
2007: Nobody
2008: wallace and Lynn.
I wouldn’t say that they are a lot better – So next time actaully look at his drafts and compare them to other teams before you say they were “horrendous”.
Our draft HAS to be horrendous Vinny, If it wasn’t there would be no reason to sell off payroll to hoard draft picks and without that there is no reason for the MONEYBALL CULTURE that we are trying to install!
What does matter what they spend? Why is having a high payroll more important than winning?
It doesn’t, but in November, all there is to talk about is FA’s and payroll.
Unless you’re the Yankees or Phillies whose fans talk about the players they signed this week.
Jim Thome? Michael Cuddyer?
Ya, let them talk.
It’s not but then again we lost more with THIS plan than we did with the other!
Because this is a long term plan. Real success does not happen quickly or easily.
The other plan was a plan in name only.
Yeah how LONG is this term? a 26 year plan?
Name the LONG TERM IMPROVEMENTS made to date….
Wheeler and……?
You’re right. Let’s just spend spend spend every offseason without forethought to the next. Let’s just send a ton of money of better than average players in a bad free agent market.
Because every season exists in a vacuum. You prepare for 2011 in December of 2010. Free agent doesn’t pan out? Just sign a more expensive one next year.
Guys get so much better as they get older. Look at Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. They hit their 30s and blew up. That’s the way to go.
You are a simpleton. I notice that you only see things in extremes.
I accept your concession. Although, it would be nicer if you just bowed out gracefully like man.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Most rediculous posts ever on MMO!
I knew you were capable of achieving SOMETHINBG!
Yeah lets just cut cut cut without any forethought of how GOOD a player is and how important he is to the wins you DID get is a much better plan right?
If you really want to see the Buffalo Bisons why not just go see them and let the Met Fans have a team they want to see?
“Guys get so much better as they get older”
Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are OLDER than Reuben Tejada and Angel Pagan!
Are the youngsters better players than them?
Why not aren’t all YOUNG players better than OLD ones?
As usual your Facts are all FANTASY, no FACT!
The product of a arrogant pre-pubescent mind who thinks the world belongs to the teenager cause THEY KNOW IT ALL!
Us old fogies are clueless because NEW is better than EXPERIENCED!
And when your 40 years old and can’t get a job because some KID thinks like you do this lesson will be learned because you will have EXPERIENCED IT!
Pagan is older than Reyes, genius.
Also, Reyes and Beltran are better than Pagan and Tejada because they are more talented players. However, Reyes and Beltran’s best days are most likely behind them.
It is foolish to think that Sandy Alderson was going to perform a miracle in 2011 and make this team a playoff contender. His hiring was all about changing the culture of this organization, beginning at the top! Now, we have 3 top level executives who have big time experience. His next job was to pick a new manager and anyone who feels that Terry Collins didn’t do a terrific job is a fool. Looking honestly at this team’s problems beginning with the ever present financial crisis, a star player (a major injury question) on is way out the door, no pitching and the constant pressure of having to deal with the snarling, vultures who call themselves the media in NYC..it’s a wonder that they played as well as they did for so long. The Jose Reyes situation will not be solved right away simply because the new GM has formulated an opinion as to what Jose is worth and will not start the bidding war with his best offer nor will he low ball his first offer. Instead it is best to wait and see if the other interested teams will offer Reyes the moon based on the potential or will they be somewhat wary of the facts about his past injuries.
There are far too many other holes and question marks for this team to think about before committing too many dollars or years to Jose. He is a great player no doubt but he is not without blemishes.
So far, I am happy with the change of direction the team has made under Sandy Alderson and look at this as a project that will take a few years to complete.
Alan I hate to break it to you but….
Anyone who thinks he is going to perform a miracle and make us competitive by 2013 or 2015 by letting Reyes go, Trading Wright for kids and not spending in FA is just as foolish!
Even if he had 5 1st round picks this year the earliest those picks will be ready to play and contribute is 2016!
If we stick to the current course Sandy will be fired by 2014!
The only culture change here is the BEAN COUNTERS are making the decisions not Baseball folks!
The CULTURE is MONEYBALL!
They had success in Oakland with it but they never solved the problem that FORCED them to use moneyball!
Attendance never INCREASED even with a season of 100+ wins and a Playoff appearance!
Which left them no money to keep the good players they had!