25
2011
MMO Top 20 Mets Prospects – #9 Cesar Puello, OF
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In July of 2007, exactly three months after his 16th birthday the Mets signed Cesar Puello, a toolsy, RH hitting outfielder from the Dominican Republic, to his first professional contract. Now 20-years-old, 6’2″ and about 220 lbs., with 1192 lifetime minor league AB’s under his belt, Puello seems poised and ready to bust out in 2012. That’s why he is our choice for the 2012 MMO Mets Top 20 Prospect list, at #9.
His first two seasons stateside 2008 and 2009 were spent toiling in the rookie leagues. Puello broke in as a 17-year-old, with 151 AB’s in the GCL in ’08, batting .305 with 1 HR and 17 RBI’s. In 2009 Puello played at Kingsport, in the Appalachian League, where in 196 AB’s he batted .296 with 5 HR’s and 23 RBI’s.
Playing at Savannah in 2010 was Puello’s first year in a long-season league, and he hit pretty well considering he was two to three years younger than the average player in the South Atlantic League. Puello notched season highs in almost every offensive category, in 404 AB’s, he scored 80 runs, and banged out 118 hits, 22 2B’s, 1 3B, 1 HR, 34 RBI’s, 45 SB’s, and batted .292.
The move to high A, St. Lucie for the 2011 season turned out to be the biggest jump so far for Puello, and he struggled quite a bit as he tried to adjust to Florida State League pitching. Suddenly the pitchers were throwing breaking balls and change-ups for strikes! In April/May/June he hit .242/.228/.235, and he was clearly over-matched at the plate. Working hard with hitting coach George Greer on pitch selection and working the count, Puello began to turn his season around at the mid-way point.
In July and August the rest of the league started to take notice, as he hit .297 and .333, to bring his season BA up to .259 in 441 AB’s. He had 67 runs scored, 114 hits, 21 2B’s, 5 3B’s, 10 HR’s, 50 RBI’s and 19 SB’s. Did I mention that Puello is a baseball magnet? He was hit with 6 pitches in 2008, 14 pitches in 2009, 22 pitches in 2010 and 20 more pitches last year, that’s 62 for his career! Ouch.
The thing about Puello that makes you take notice, is his combination of speed, power, and youth. The buzz about him going around the South Atlantic League in 2010 was that he was one of the strongest players in the league. Although his power has yet to emerge in the form of HR’s and SLG%, it still lies dormant under the surface. At some point Puello will figure out how to turn on an inside fastball, or learn how to hit it squarely with loft and carry, and when he does he definitely has the strength to develop into at least a 20+ homerun guy. Something about him reminds me of Kevin Mitchell when he was in the minors. Mitchell didn’t hit a lot of HR’s either, only 42 in his minor league career over 5 seasons before he made the big league club in ’86. But then, as a big leaguer, he emerged as a “crusher” of baseballs.
Puello is a very fast runner, with times from home to first in the 4.15 to 4.2 range. He is not Jose Reyes fast, but pretty darn close, say Angel Pagan fast. Of course, as he matures physically, he could potentially slow down a tic, which would project him at somewhere around 25 SB’s per year at the big league level. Puello has good instincts and awareness on the bases, and usually gets good jumps on steal attempts, but still needs to refine his running game and cut down on his CS (roughly one-in-three attempts).
Defensively Puello is an above-average right-fielder, with a very strong, and accurate throwing arm. But thanks to his defensive skill and speed, there is no ruling him out as a center-fielder at this point in his career. Moving forward the Mets should continue to play him in CF as much as possible, as this will only increase his value someday.
Will we see Cesar tearing around the Citifield outfield this season? No, I really don’t think that would be possible. He should open the season at AA Bingo, and if he does really well in the Eastern League, he may finish the year at AAA. I look for Puello to get his feet wet in the majors sometime in 2013, at the tender age of 22. At that point all bets are off, as an interesting competition will hopefully emerge between “Captain Kirk” Nieuwenhuis, Juan Lagares, and Puello, for playing time in the outfield at Citi.
Cesar Puello: VIDEO
Check back on Monday when we unveil the 2012 MMO Mets Top 20 Prospects, #8.
My short list includes:
Wilmer Flores INF
Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF
Brandon Nimmo CF
Juan Lagares LF
2012 MMO Top 20 Prospects
9. Cesar Puello RF
10. Reese Havens 2B
11. Cory Mazzoni RHP
12. Jordany Valdespin INF
13. Darin Gorski LHP
14. Phillip Evans SS
15. Jefry Marte 3B
16. Collin McHugh RHP
17. Juan Urbina LHP
18. Akeel Morris RHP
19. Michael Fulmer RHP
20. Danny Muno INF
About the Author: Peter Shapiro
The first time I went to Shea was not for a Mets game, it was for the Beatles concert there in August of '66. My first Met game was '67, a guy named Salty Parker was the interim-manager then. My first pennant race was 1969. As a 12 year-old that summer and fall, I managed to get to the park for 3 games. The first was the beginning of the Miracle which actually started on Tuesday July 8, 1969 with a day game against the Cubs. I was there a lot in '73. I saw games 3 & 5 of the 1973 NL Playoffs against the "Big Red Machine", from the upper deck behind home plate. It was from there that I witnessed the fight between Bud Harrelson and Pete Rose, and the mayhem that ensued. And that sweet victory in game 5! I saw a couple of WS games at Shea that year against that legendary Oakland A's club. I was there in 1985 for every single game Dr. K pitched including his two 16 strikeout performances, and the day he one-hit the Cubs on an infield single and the Mets won 1-0. I loved being a Met fan in those days. Hopefully we are once again preparing to emerge from the darkness.
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High strikeouts, poor defense, poor OBP…could someone explain why he is rated so high, he has done nothing to show that he is even good enough to play in AA. The evaluation of him in this post is horribly misguided: “Defensively Puello is an above-average right-fielder, with a very strong, and accurate throwing arm. But thanks to his defensive skill and speed, there is no ruling him out as a center-fielder at this point…” Really?!?! In 254 games as a RFer he has a .963 fielding percentage and this is “above-average”??? Or, I loved this quote too, “The thing about Puello that makes you take notice, is his combination of speed, power, and youth.” This is hysterical! Coming into 2011, in 198 games, this kid hit 7 HRs…in 2011 he hit 10 HRs, and his average dropped by 40 points. I’ll give him credit for one thing though…he is very fast….but so was Jason Tyner.
His evaluation of him isn’t misguided at all – Puello does have power and speed. Just because his numbers don’t show that, doesn’t mean that it’s not true.
Minor league numbers are very misleading. Because if a player has bad numbers that doesn’t mean that they don’t have the talent or the potential to make it to the majors – look at Ike Davis’ 1st year in the minors – he hit NO HR’s. And he has turned into a good power hitter in the majors.
Peullo is ranked this high because of his talent, and because he’s very young – Your just looking at his numbers, and a lot of times they can be misleading when it comes to young players like Peullo.
“The evaluation of him in this post is horribly misguided” Something is ‘horribly misguided’ all right, but it’s not my evaluation of Cesar Puello my friend. Your brain is rather horribly misguided. Let me just say this: I am not the least bit concerned with low level minor league stats. They can start a discussion. But they cannot end one. You seem to think that the fact that Puello made 8 errors in low A ball as an 18-year-old, and 10 errors in high A ball, as a 19-year-old, is somehow significant, and defines him as a prospect. That it is an indication of what kind of fielder he will be one day if he makes it to the big league level. I don’t. Those stats don’t interest me in the least and bare absolutely no significance. He projects to be a top flight outfielder one day soon, and if he hasn’t been up to now it is of no consequence. Have you ever seen him play, TWfNA? I have, and I have also seen Jason Tyner play. And if YOU think for a second that those two players are/were at all similar, in any way, then you really have no idea what you are looking at when you watch baseball. Just on the surface without even considering one statistic, Jason Tyner’s playing weight was 170lbs. Puello outweighs him by over 50 lbs. To even compare these two players any further would be totally asinine.
True guys…you make great points…sure in 4 seasons this kid has shown that he cannot produce offensively or defensively, however, he certainly looks the part of a potential stud. Gotcha…makes perfect sense. Sure, his amount of errors has increased over the past 2 years (as a RFer), but he certainly looks the part of a future MLB CFer. Great evaluations, not at all biased to the fact the he is a Met farmhand. I’m sure you’d feel the same way about this kid if he were with the Phils, Braves, or Yanks. If this kid truly is the Mets #9 prospect…they are in even worse shape that originally believed.
Have you ever seen him play? Or are you saying he has no talent just because of his numbers as a 20 year old? It sounds like it.
What your not taking into account is that he was only 20 last year, and that as he gets older, he’ll get stronger and hit for more power. He’s a tremendous athlete – According to Pete, he was considered one of the strongest players in the league in 2010, and he said he’s “Angel Pagan fast”.
His errors in the field could be due to inexperiecne, and I’m sure as he gets more experience, he’ll get better – He certainly has the skills to be a good OF……The numbers won’t show you that though, they only tell you if he did good or bad, not WHY he did good or bad. How do you know that his errors can’t be something that can be fixed? You don’t.
And he has produced in his other years in the minors – He hit .305, .296, and .292 before last year…why dosen’t that count?
And by the way, Baseball America ranked Puello 77th in their top 100 list last year….so it’s not like we are only saying he’s a good prospect because he’s a Met.
And I find it kinda funny that he was ranked a few spots higher than Nolan Arenado.
“Last year,” “Last year,” why is it as Mets fans we are always inclined to live in the past? Nolan Arenado is the top offensive minor league prospect in all of baseball. Puello, on the other hand, is a guy who decided it was time to add power to his resume, and as a result, saw his average drop 33 points from the prior year. Even with that boost in power, his slugging percentage was a putrid .397. However, he did see a rise in 1 category…his strikeouts increased to 103 from 82…however, in his defense, he did have 19 more plate appearances. Arenado, on the other hand, since you decided to compare the 2 players (which is a joke), was also in A+ ball this past season, where he batted .298/20/122 (517 ABs), and that was an increase from the previous year where in A ball he hit .308/12/65 (373 ABs). But, their strikeouts are comparable…in those 890 ABs, Arenado had 105 K’s…Puello had 103 in his 441 ABs. My bad, that was Puello’s K total in ’11, I combined Arenado’s K total from ’10 & ’11, I guess their K’s aren’t comparable either. Let me know who is ranked higher this year…or if Puello is even in the top 200. Take off the blue and orange goggles fellas, if Puello is the gem you’re going to talk up, at least be realistic…may be, if he makes more contact and shows he can field, he can top out as Timo Perez.
I just wanted to point out that he isn’t as bad as your making him out to be. He is actually a good prospect. And if you weren’t negative 100% of the time, you would see that. Of course Arenado has passed him now, but Puello can’t be as bad as your saying he is because less than 12 months ago he was considered a better prospect than Arenado.
Puello is a good prospect – That’s all I’m saying.
Here’s why you shouldn’t care so much about minor league stats:
Carlos Beltran hit .229/.311/.363 in 120 games when he was 20 playing in A ball(same as Peullo)
Ike Davis hit no HR’s and had 17 RBI in 58 games in his 1st year in the minors.
Johan Santana at age 20 in A ball had a 4.66 ERA 1.35 WHIP.
That’s why you can’t judge prospects only by numbers like your doing because most of the time, your going to be wrong.
As much as I like Arenado he is not the number 1 hitting prospect in all of MILB.Number 1 is Mike Trout,followed by Bryce Harper. I don’t know where you got that from,it’s not the case.
I get by the numbers they put up. Trout hits for a higher average, but his power is nowhere near Arenado’s. And Harper is being pushed along too quickly. He killed A ball…but was heavily overmatched in AA. Maybe you should actually compare the players…rather than just picking the names of the most publicized players.
“I get by the numbers they put up.”
That’s your problem. Your ignoring the whole scouting aspect of this. It’s not about numbers, especially when your talking about kids who are only 20 years old, like Puello.
If you only looked at the numbers, you would think guys like Beltran and Ike Davis were garbage after they put up bad numbers in the minors for a season or two……but you would be way off – Just like you are with Puello.
There’s a LOT more that goes into these rankings than numbers.
You get by the numbers they put up? Sorry but it doesn’t work like that. Some random fan doesn’t get to rate prospects.Pro’s get to rate them. I’m not knocking Arenado I happen to like him but he’s nowhere near the hitting prospect that Mike Trout is.Not even close.
Arenado 298/349/487/836 OPS 32 2B’s 22 HR’s 122 RBI’s Nice numbers but other than RBI’s nothing eye popping either.Mike Trout 326/414/544/958 OPS 18 2B’s 13 3B’s 11 HR’s 38 RBI’s 33 SB’s. Trout a leadoff hitter in AA with a 958 OPS is outrageous.Arenado had a 836 OPS in A ball,good but not spectacular. David Wright who you want to trade for Arenado in his worst MLB season had a higher OPS than Arenado did in A ball.If you’re gonna rate a prospect by RBI’s your scouting career won’t last too long.Arenado is not even the best prospect in the Rox organization.Best prospect on Colorado for hitting for avg. And btw when you combine AA and MLB Trout hit 16 HR’s only 4 less but he has a higher slug% 544 Trout and 487 Arenado.Arenado is an average defenser at bets.Trout projects to be a GG CF’er.
Harper was an 18 year old in AA,hit 256,not good but hardly overmatched for the youngest player in the league 318/423/554/977 OPS is pretty special in A ball for an 18 year old.
Again I’m not saying Arenado isn’t a legitimate prospect but he’s not number 1.Theres alot of hitters with a much higher BA/OBP/SLG%/OPS than Arenado.
average defender at best I meant.
Pete, ask any scout that follows this team who the top outfield prospect is and they universally tell you Puello.
But… we just keep waiting…