2
2011
Who Will Be Traded?
An article by 
Who will be traded? Sandy may not have much money to spend, but he sure needs to fill a lot of holes. The trade market could be a major tool for the Mets heading into the winter.
Of course, two unsettling things for Mets fans heading into the off-season, are the present situations at the two defensive positions, shortstop and centerfield. Shortstop will remain up-in-the-air for quite some time. At least until Jose has drank deep from the cup of big time free agency. But even if Reyes does go elsewhere for more money, at least there is a suitable back-up in-house already, in Ruben Tejada. Centerfield however, has Mets fans in a quandary. Who is the real Angel Pagan? And which one will be playing major league baseball next year?
There are a significant number of fans on MMO, that have expressed their confidence that Pagan
will be the “good Pagan” next year. Others have blogged that his good year was a fluke, and he’ll never be anything more than a fourth outfielder. Some, from both camps, have pointed out that there really is no one else out there. Rick Ankiel? He can play the game, but he suffers a significant drop-off when he hits against lefties, so you would need to platoon with him. But, barring a trade, it’s true, that at the start of the 2012 season, Pagan is the best candidate to be in CF everyday.
With luck Captain Kirk has a speedy recovery and is back on the field by May. That could make him a factor for the Mets by the second half next year. Unfortunately, there are no other centerfielders on the farm that will be ready anytime soon. Raul Reyes has played almost exclusively RF. Lagares exclusively in LF, and FMart is strictly a corner outfielder, and might find himself at first-base next year to preserve his gimpy knees. Unless SA trades for a legitimate big league centerfielder, Pagan must remain to man the position until someone better comes along.
But what about the corner spots, both infield and outfield? Wright and Davis should comprise the infield corners. Bay and Duda the outfield corners. But what about Murphy? The man without a position. He really was horrendous in the outfield the first time around, and the thought that he can learn to be a good defensive corner outfielder is a pipe-dream. If you think it’s ok to have Murphy learning on the job to play the outfield, when he may never be able to, then you are ok with losing baseball. It makes no sense, especially when he seems perfectly comfortable at 3B and can do a good job there. With all of DWright’s problems at third, too bad you can’t consider a move to first, and put Murphy at third, but then you have Davis coming back next year.
One thing becomes apparent, you have four corner positions, and five starters, and someone is going to be traded this winter, you can take that to the bank. Who will it be?
Ike Davis - Not a chance. Even without his injury I would say the Mets intend to keep him at all costs. He’s got big league power, plays great defense, and is perfectly cut-out for playing in NY. It is obvious that he has not even scratched the surface of his abilities yet. With his season lost to injury his value is at a low point now and it would be asinine to trade him.
Lucas Duda – Very doubtful for him to be traded anytime soon. Unless they were getting back a right-fielder in the trade. Duda will not be traded for many of the same reasons as Ike, minus the “excellent fielder” tag. Duda’s scary LH power make him an intriguing prospect, and one to hold onto for a while. In addition, despite his newness to the position, he’s got more experience in RF than all the other four listed here put together.
Jason Bay - Now this would be something else! If Sandy could trade Bay it would be an amazing accomplishment. Talk about addition by subtraction. But with two years and well over $30 million owed to him, Bay will be very tough to unload. Recent suggestions of a Crawford for Bay trade are interesting, but I don’t see the Mets making a trade that will put them on-the-hook for any more money, or years of a bad contract, than they are already committed to.
Even if you did trade Bay, however, and didn’t have to take back a left-fielder like Crawford, the alignment would start to look funny, with Duda and Murphy now manning the outfield corners. That makes for some pretty bad outfield defense over the course of a full year. Unless you did something radical like moving Duda to LF, playing DWright at 1B, Ike moves to RF, and Murphy settles in at 3B? Oh boy I can’t wait till you guys get a hold of this! Just remember this only hot-stove talk! So go easy.
Daniel Murphy - If they can get something in return for Murph, like a future catcher, or package him with a prospect to bring back a middle of the rotation starter, it might make the most sense to just trade Murphy and leave everybody else right where they are. I mean sure you could always use Murphy in a utility role where he plays first, second and third and maybe even a game in the OF once in a while, but that is tough on a player, and he is worth more, as a .300 hitter, in a trade.
David Wright - Wright represents the Mets number one commodity. He is the one single entity that belongs to the Mets, that is worth the most in a trade. This is of course a combination of his stature as a major-leaguer, combined with his present contract status. Both actually make him easier to trade now, rather than being prohibitive. On the surface trading Wright would take one of their top remaining run producers out of the line-up, but also creates a place where Murphy could play, and succeed on defense. What could the Mets get for David Wright?
There have been rumors over the years that the Colorado Rockies have had an interest in acquiring the third baseman. The most recent was a rumor that the Rockies had claimed Wright off revocable waivers in August. Here’s a recent trade suggestion by Jack Butler of Bleacher Report, between the Mets and the Rockies:
Rockies get: 3B David Wright
Mets get: RHP Huston Street, RHP Edgmer Escalona, C Wilin Rosario
We all know about the Mets’ need for a closer. Nobody on the roster has been able to fill that void. Street may not be Mariano Rivera, but he’s converted 29-of-33 save opportunities this season.
Wilin Rosario is one of the best catching prospects in baseball. I love what I’ve seen from him, and he could potentially be the long-term answer at catcher.
Escalona is a promising young pitcher, but I stayed away from their top pitching prospects like Rex Brothers and Tyler Matzek. Because of that, I think this is a very reasonable trade proposal.
Now I don’t necessarily agree with this trade as proposed by Mr. Butler, but I think he is definitely onto something. Take out Escalona, and replace him with one of the top three or four pitchers in their system, like Matzek or Brothers, or even Chad Bettis, Parker Frazier, or Casey Weathers, and the Mets wouldn’t even be asking for top pitcher Drew Pomeranz. The Mets would be filing the hole at closer, adding hopefully a catcher for the future, and a top pitching prospect.
Of course trading Wright does one more thing that seems to be a goal of the front office these days, dumping salary. If the money saved was put into the aquisition of some quality pitching that would be one thing, but would any savings like that be reinvested into the team? Only time will tell.
Watch for some trades this winter, I expect the Mets to be very active at the winter meetings. It’s time to get aggressive Sandy and fix this team. I am not advocating trading David, or Murph, but all possibilities to improve the team have to be considered.
About the Author: Peter Shapiro
The first time I went to Shea was not for a Mets game, it was for the Beatles concert there in August of '66. My first Met game was '67, a guy named Salty Parker was the interim-manager then. My first pennant race was 1969. As a 12 year-old that summer and fall, I managed to get to the park for 3 games. The first was the beginning of the Miracle which actually started on Tuesday July 8, 1969 with a day game against the Cubs. I was there a lot in '73. I saw games 3 & 5 of the 1973 NL Playoffs against the "Big Red Machine", from the upper deck behind home plate. It was from there that I witnessed the fight between Bud Harrelson and Pete Rose, and the mayhem that ensued. And that sweet victory in game 5! I saw a couple of WS games at Shea that year against that legendary Oakland A's club. I was there in 1985 for every single game Dr. K pitched including his two 16 strikeout performances, and the day he one-hit the Cubs on an infield single and the Mets won 1-0. I loved being a Met fan in those days. Hopefully we are once again preparing to emerge from the darkness.
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I like these ideas. Trading Wright used to seem like an impossibility, but if it gets us some pitching, a raw but talented catcher, plus lets Murphy play his natural position, I’m for it.
Pops
Pagan will not be back. One good year in a career does not cut it. There is no “good” pagan, only a dumb Pagan. A guy who swings at balls all the time but strikes out looking alot. A guy who overthrows cutoff men, throws to the wrong base allowing runners to move up, throws to bases with no one covering them. A guy who runs the bases like a chicken with his head cut off. The good year was just an accident. They will not tender him.
I don’t think it prudent to trade Murphy this year. Not yet.
Getting him on the field is easy enough. How often depends on Reyes.
Ways that happens:
1 – Resting Davis – With a bad ankle they will play cautiously to start the season with Davis which gets you a day or two a week to play Murphy at 1B.
2 – Resting Wright – Wright always appears to fade at the end of season, regular rest might help that. Murphy can play 3B in his place so there is another day of the week you can make use of Murphy’s bat
If Reyes leaves…
3 – Tejada will move to SS, Turner will be the utility IF, and Murphy will get another day or two at 2B. Turner can play SS on some days to rest Tejada (leaving 2B open on those days) which means you could get even more days to insert Murphy into the lineup. Only a guy like Havens makes this more complicated if he rakes in Spring.
If Reyes stays…
4 – Lets face it Reyes needs to rest at least once a week to keep his hammies safe. That leaves you in the same situation as #3 where you can get a day of 2B out of Murphy.
So it isn’t impossible to get Murphy into games even if Reyes is re-signed.
But the main reason to not trade Murphy has everything to do with Wright’s contract status. It’s up next year!
We HAVE the option of being able to pass on Reyes’s contract demands only because we have a guy to at least replace the glove of Reyes (not the bat though).
Well Wright is in pretty much the same situation as Reyes was this year.
Sandy is going to look at what Wright does next season and set his top offer based on that just as he appears to have done with Reyes. Wright will be the name we are talking about when the trade deadline hits and it stands to reason that we need someone as an insurance policy for 3B should Sandy decide Wright isn’t worth re-signing either!
And lets face it that guy is Murphy!
I once suggested that Murphy should start the jopurney to learning how to play catcher.
I still no harm in teaching him to play there. Always good to have an emergency catcher on the roster who can play elsewhere and he hits better than most catchers do as well!
He won’t be Munson or Bench, and with our pitching staff you shudder to think about him calling a game but then again we should be going after pitchers who don’t need a catcher to tell them how to pitch anyway!
I think you have to hold onto Murphy at least until you have come to decision point on Wright.
and Training him to play other positions does not hurt us in anyway.
Most important in my mind aside from his bat is his attitude. It is no coincidence that our fighting to the end attitude happened when Murphy took over at 1st and played regularly! Want proof just look at our record after he got hurt.
He was a big part of what we saw and liked this year.
And you don’t just trade it away merely because you are not creative enough to find places to play a guy who hit .320!
Interesting Metsie, however, it seems like you are working awfully hard to justify not trading Murphy. He has significant value, to be sure. That’s why you need to be ready to let him go if the situation calls for it, the same with DWright, or anyone else on the roster or the farm. No one is un-tradeable, and sometimes you have to trade someone even when you don’t want to. Case-in-point, when the Mets traded for Gary Carter, they had to part with someone that no Mets fan wanted to see them trade away. A young talented third-baseman, who was one of the most popular players on the team along with Mookie Wilson. His name was Hubie Brooks. But without giving up something good in that case, they never would have acquired a key piece to a championship puzzle.
First off Pete I’m not supporting not signing or trading Wright, Just noting that Sandy seems to have no sentimental value to any of the mets that we do!
Reyes as a case in point.
Sandy seems to be more interested in flexability, and trading Murphy hurts his flexability to make a move on Wright who by most accounts is the one guy on the team worth something in trade. (I don’t really agree with that either!)
Murphy is versatile in the IF because whatever he might give up with the glove he seems to be able to get back with the bat.
You have to give something good to get something good yes, but remember you don’t make that Carter trade until the rest of the team is pretty much set (as it was at the time) We had our team pretty much built and needed a veteran catcher to guide the young pitchers we had.
Not the case yet here. First we have to get the pitchers as the kids are still a year away and won’t be seen in Met Uni’s till July the earliest.
Does he, though? He’s coming off his 2nd major knee injury and who is going to trade for him without knowing how he’ll come back from injury? And if there was a taker, you’d be getting 50 cents on the dollar for Murphy. On top of that, Murphy is cheap. He’ll be with this team come spring training. Now, if he rips it up in Spring training…
wright is under met control for 2 more years (through 2013), but if traded, the 2013 team option becomes mutual. So any team trading for him would be doing it as a 1 year rental.
Yes but that team would also be acquiring exclusive negotiating rights for that year as well. If they were earnest about keeping him, that would be a significant advantage.
certainly, but no guarantee, so the team would have to factor in they are only sure of that 1 year (plus prospects when he walks, assuming that is still in the new CBA!)
Yep and a 1 year rental got you Wheeler! You would get even more for Wright as he is a guy without re-signing risk like Beltran had with his sketchy knees!
2.5 month rental actually.
But, I agree with pete, if you are going to trade a guy like wright, they need someone that can help the Mets now, not in maybe a few eyars.
sticking with the Giants, Baumgarner certainly fits the criteria (just as an example).
I have always thought Wright should be a Met for life but Ive grown past that now. Obviously it is much more difficult to find good pitching than to get offense from 3B position. We need starting pitching and I’ll trade Wright only if we get a potential #2 type pitcher in return. I’m not looking to get back three scraps that I hope will be good some day. We already have a ton of those types in our minors.
agree 100% that if Wright gets traded, it better be for real talent, and someone ready now, not 3 guys in A ball.
Bay? Him you trade just to get rid of him, no return required!
Bay is not an Ollie case. He is not a disruption on the team. We need outfielders. Bay’s contract is tough to move…so he stays for the next two years. We should platoon him with Evens. This would protect Bay from right handed pitching and keep Bay from vesting a third year
I have to disagree there. Sure if they can trade Bay, not lose a step and get somebody that will help us win next season than fine. I’ll tell you one thing, i won’t approve of a salary dump at the cost of giving away a season. I can’t accept those types of decisions and that’s what has me very worried about Alderson and crew because they’ve shown so far no attempt to contend NOW and build the farm at the same time. Yes it’s good to get guys for the farm and any GM should always do that but you don’t sacrifice winning to do that. Never.
Otherwise, the fences are being lowered in moved in and that is a very significant move and may help Bay return somewhat to his former self.
I would have given up on Bay if the dimensions weren’t changed but since they are being changed it changes everything.
I have said for a while that this needs to be an active trade year. Not sure how much will come off of the ML roster, but they need to make some moves to clean up some excesses in the minors, and fill barren spots.
Your analysis also shows how much of a moving target the off season is, and how it is impossible to lay out a detailed plan at this point. the first big move will decide which chain of dominos gets knocked over!
\Given that the FO has a budget cap (and yes, I know this infuriates some people, but it is reality at the moment), making a bold move to trade a big salary (Wright being the only possible option), will let them explore a different expensive option, be it Reyes, or say Wilson for SP or maybe a name brand closer.
Murphy, I see him as traded (low chance) or back as a super sub type (better chance). Not starting though at any one spot. And yes, he can play 3B, but he is not even as good a 3B as Wright, so don’t sell that as an upgrade.
anyway, I hope that the end result of the trades is an upgrade at C and CF, with at lest 1 more good SP (along with pen help from somewhere).
For the OF, I think they need a LH guy to platoon with bay, and put them in RF. Hell, Ankiel could be this guy. or maybe F Mart or Kirk (if recovered). Then Duda gets to settle in and learn LF, and stay there for the next 5 years.
Duda, a strong defensive CF, and bay/LF guy in RF should be fine for defense (as good as most any team has), and could actually produce offensively (Bay is fine vs. LHP< just horrid vs. RHP).
The IF is where all the moving parts are, with Davis fixed at 1B and hopefully a C upgrade there. And I am still pulling for havens to win the 2B job ASAP!
Any I agree totally that this is a trading year…
But don’t expect to see many trades until late in the offseason after the FA period is close to done and the IF picture is much clearer on this roster.
We are all impressed with Tejada’s performance this year but he is as likely to be traded as anyone if Reyes stays and if not him Havens.
We just have a dearth of Middle IF and some of it is going to go. Since Murphy is good for the corner IF spots with some days at 2B I just don’t see where he is on the trade block at all.
This is not a trading year. Aside from trading Wright for pitching or a catcher, who else of value could we trade? Sure we have the Bison Bunch. On whole they have done well. They all get less than 500k per so they won’t be traded. 2012 will see more ex-Bisons. Some will workout others will be sent packing. 2013 is when the pitching starts to arrive that is when we can start to compete.
Pete, great article as always my friend.
Anyways, I think Pagan will be back, but i think the Mets will watch him and see how he does. I just don’t think the free-agent market has anything that will suit the Mets need for CF.
As far as Bay, with the current cash left on his deal, I just don’t see anyone taking that contract on. I think it would be more likely to trade him after this year since he will have one more year on his deal going into 2013.
As for Wright, I believe we should wait one more year. With the walls apparently being lowered and such, we should see if David makes any progress, or change for the better. We all know its been difficult for Wright to adjust his swing so that he can hit HR’s from Citi Field.
And finally…. Duda and Ike?! No chance! Nuff said.
If you’re going to consider dealing Wright at all, it is ridiculous to trade him for a closer, a 25 year old minor league reliever and a catching prospect (albeit a solid one, though his offensive numbers look scarily raw). That seems like it would be selling incredibly low. You don’t sell low on a guy who is in his physical prime and has the potential to be one of the best players on the team. If I’m dealing David Wright and talking to the Rockies, the talks begin and end with Drew Pomeranz. Wright is the face of the franchise and even in his three year decline, is still one of the best third basemen in the league. You’ve got to extract as much value as you can out of your biggest trade chips, otherwise you’ll never see improvement…you’ll just continue to spin your wheels.
Rosario is an interesting catching prospect (and lord knows we them) but Huston Street is so expensive that you could probably acquire him for a lot less than David Wright.
Agree completely.
A match could be made with Toronto for one of out 1st basemen though along with Wright. With Arrincebo and D’Anaurd they have two young catchers (depending on how they feel about them as well as two more top prospects. AJ Jimenez 21 A+ and Carlos Perez 20 A-. Both performed well enough to earn a promotion next year.
Lawrie could very well be their 2B instead of 3B and Lind isn’t cutting it at 1B so the question becomes Wright and Duda for Jimenez and what else? Deck McGuire 22 AA RHP 1 K per inning and Anthony Gose 20, AA 20 doubles 7 triples, 16 HR’s LH CFer former 2nd round pick of the Phillies (Halliday deal)
I know the biggest problem people will have with this deal is that no one is ready for the Majors right now but being that they touched AA or played there all year, their not that far. Gose would start in AAA and CF is anything but safe going forward. Kirk MAY be able to play there, MDD is very questionable and Puello is at least 3 years away and what really matters is how the guys we get back play, not how quick they can get up here.
Gose also saves a roster spot and we could save another (prospect wise on the 40) by kicking Fern into RF and telling him it’s time. Now or never. Duda is NOT a RFer. He could be hidden in LF but at some point we have got to pare down the players we have that need to be hidden. Between Murphy, Turner, Lutz, Satin and down the road Flores we should be OK defensively at 3B and Wright will probably hit 40 at Rogers and Duda? Maybe even more. Most importantly we start to pair down some of our duplicate types and fill in where we need guys, just in time to add them to Familia, Mejia, Harvey, Wheeler, Gorski and the rest.
Again, your goal is to field a roster made up entirely of home-grown or home-developed prospects.
If David Wright is moved it better be for a legitimate MAJOR LEAGUE starting pitcher as the primary acquisition. There are young ones you know.
History of entire Mets minor league farm not needed. Thank you very much.
My goal is not to field a completely homegrown team, that’s your opinion of my goal, which is incorrect. If it was, why would I propose a trade of two homegrown Mets for 3 Blue Jay prospects?
My ideal of our farm system is to provide OPTIONS for us instead of foraging through type A, type B and lesser free agent lists every year.
What team has to go out and sign 13 free agents every year anyway?
I want numerous well developed high shelf prospects not only to play here but to back up on the bench, round out the pen, provide depth in AAA and to use to acquire the best players currently in the Majors from other teams before their past their prime.
You want to forage through a very limited number of available players every year. I want the goods to be able to acquire ANY player.
Nice try though.
t agee says:
September 16, 2011 at 12:08 pm
“If they threw Hermedia in there who at 27 had a great year in AAA we could live him for a year in RF and see if he raises his value.
That would leave us with a potential everyday 2013 starting lineup of Grandell/Thole, Davis/Evans, Valdespin/Havens, Reyes/Tejada, Wright/Lutz (with Flores close), Duda/Evans, Pagan?/Kirk/Den Deker (with Puello possably in AAA) and Lagares/Hermedia in RF.”
yawn.
Which completely invalidates your opinion that I want a completely homegrown team since two of those position players are not homegrown. In fact they were traded for homegrown Mets in that hypothetical trade scenario.
Nice try though.
we went over this before – big deal – so in there are players that came to the bigs as Mets.
You are the master of side-stepping – sick nut job you are
Even those scant few times that you offer evidence to support your opinion, you wind up providing evidence that contradicts your opinion.
That is then quickly followed by childish name calling.
you are a nothing but a complete mutton head.
it’s not that
you’re just an insane human being mister. Whoever you are. One cannot debate with an insane human being
You write things about other posters wives, girlfriends and daughters and even that you’ld like to spit on people.
If that isn’t the very definition of an insane jackass I don’t know what is.
Another one that can’t argue his point without insults.
I agree Toronto matches up well with the Mets needs.Lets expand a little more to your trade the Mets also include Parnell and the Jays add Travis Snider? Who has fallen out of the Jays plans. But they have other arms as well as Mcguire!! Lets ask for Nestor Molina or Noah Syndergaard?
Wright’s career might be stalling, and the park is a very real issue for the man, but I think the Mets aren’t getting rid of him nor Murphy. Unless an ace is coming back for Wright, I expect him to stay put. Bottom line is Murphy has better value as a starting player. We’re not getting much back for a part-timer.
Yes Murphy is a better valued player than Wright? Wright is making how much money?? Murphy is making what?? 440,000. If you pro-rate Murphy;s 2011 stats,and stick him into 3rd a position he is framiliar with? You will answer your own question? Add the fact that Wright can also add pieces to the long term of the Mets ,its a know doubter?
Duda in right field, Davis at first base, Tejeda at short if Reyes leaves/ Tejeda at second if he stays and trade Wright for some pitching, center fielder or catcher and slot Murphy at 3rd. You might think our offense will slack with a full year a Murphy, Davis and Duda alone I think is better then what Wright has been giving us of late. It saves us money in trading Wright so whatever you get in return be it pitching, center fielder or catcher you could use the money saved to to get a center fielder or catcher to slot in. Notice I said CF and catcher because Wright should be traded for pitching and Alderson has to find away to have Murphy in the everyday line up. Alderson I believe and will trade Wright to fill other holes. Bay is a question mark and Turner should at the least be a bench player/ utility player.
If we trade Wright, I would ask Angels for Mike Trout, If we trade Murphy then Peter Bourjos.