29
2011
Reading An Interview From the GM Who Just Won It All.
An article by 
I found this to be pretty interesting.
This is an interview done by Brian Walton, and was done back in 2004 when John Mozeliak was the Asst. GM for the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s an interesting read, that’s all I’m saying. Especially when you consider this man went to sleep last night a World Series winning GM.
Here are some excerpts, what are your thoughts?
The strategy this year was obviously to go heavy on college players versus high school. What were the factors that caused you to come to that conclusion?
There’s a couple of things. One was “How do you validate a subjective scouting report?” And, the one thing we were able to do is come up with metrics we could use to help us justify why we were taking players and where we were taking them. The one thing I wanted the scouts to concentrate on was not so much just on what they thought about where a player should go and that sort of thing in terms of the draft. I wanted them to tell me, “What are the tools this player brings?”, and I would validate it with a multitude of other things to look at. One would be our statistical analysis. One would be through our psychological testing. One would be our medical risk/reward factors. So, we would put all of this into an equation and then help us try to put this into some kind of ranking system. But, we’d also want to phrase the question to the area scout as “Where do you value this player? What level of dollars do you actually want to commit to someone like this?” So, with all of that, we put it into the hopper and then we would just filter it all out. It’s really too early to say if it was successful or not. But, overall, we’re very pleased with what we ended up with in the draft. That’s for sure.
Over the winter, the Cardinals decided to go with a new scouting computer system. How is that progressing?
Well, it’s a huge help for what I do. In the past, we’ve had different systems that we used and different interfaces that we used to gather the information. Now, we’ve gone with a company called eSolutions, which is used by probably nine or ten major league clubs. What it really enables us to do is that it is a perfect gathering tool. It allows scouts without any major computer issues to go ahead and write a report and turn it into the home office. As far as the power of sorting the data and that kind of thing, it is a Notes-based system. That is probably one of the weaknesses of it. But, they do build views for us and we’re starting to learn how to do it ourselves internally. That will make it an even more powerful tool for us.
Again, as technology advances, so does the sport in every facet.
Speaking of tools, last winter’s high profile addition to the front office was the hiring of Jeff Luhnow and the establishment of the sabermetric view of the game. How is that meshing with your more traditional methods of evaluation?
I think it is going very well. Obviously, for what I did this year in the draft, I leaned heavily on Jeff and his staff. That’s the nature of how we set this whole thing up. In terms of the draft, I realize that when you go totally off scouting reports, then you’ve opened yourself up to such a subjective scenario of results. The one thing that I wanted to do is validate what we do. That’s where his staff was just invaluable. I think it’s a great direction we’re moving in. I think as far as the draft goes, I think it is something that we will replicate for next year. I think both Jeff and I feel there are some things we can tweak on to make it that much better. And that is actually kind of why I am here now.
What do you mean?
I’ve always in the past gone to our rookie clubs and taken a look at our players, but I’m really looking at it this year in terms of “Well, what did our scouts truly see versus what did I see?” And, clearly you have to take into account the fatigue factor in the first year of professional baseball and the higher competition and all that. But, for this system to work that we’ve put in place, one thing that we’re going to have to make sure that we’ve accomplished is to ensure that all the scouts are completely on one page. And that they understand how we view tools in baseball. I mean traditional tools; arm strength, running speed, power, bat and all that. We have to all be in agreement on what that means. So, I’ll spend most of my summer validating that and then hopefully in this off-season, be able to spend three or four days with our scouts and try to let them know what I found on that.
To me, the most important part of this whole thing here is the fact he seems to stress that he wants everybody is on the same page. They have an organizational concept, and they want to stick to it in everything they do.
You know, this interview took place 7 years ago and because the organization trusted his outlook on their future, he is now the GM and the Cardinals are World Series Champions. Every team has a different way of doing things, but when everybody within the organization are on the same page, and the executives making decisions are using EVERY piece of data they can find, the odds of success are greater than just ignoring valuable information.
To read the entire interview, please go to http://www.thestlcardinals.com/INVMozeliakJohn.html
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 41 | 28 | .594 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 34 | .500 | 6.5 |
| Phillies | 33 | 37 | .471 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 39 | .391 | 13.5 |
| Marlins | 21 | 47 | .309 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/16/2013
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Yawn…you get a cut for every mention of Sabermetrics don’t you?
If you had read what he said you would have understood that he is using equations that INCORPORATE much more than Stats and Sabers!
“One would be our statistical analysis. One would be through our psychological testing. One would be our medical risk/reward factors. So, we would put all of this into an equation and then help us try to put this into some kind of ranking system.”
Note he didn’t say how much of Psyche, Stat, and Meds were weighed into that FINAL RANKING equation did he?
No one has ever had a problem using a spreadsheet to make ranks!
What we have a problem with is using only SABERS or the notion that anything that goes INTO a spreadsheet is now called a SABER!
Only the Saber folks mistake statistical analysis as being Saber!
Sabers are about OB not statistical analysis!
Metsie:
“Yawn…you get a cut for every mention of Sabermetrics don’t you?. If you had read what he said you would have understood that he is using equations that INCORPORATE much more than Stats and Sabers!”
I will give you $100 if you show me where in my writings I mentioned sabermetrics?
Please quote. Thanks.
“Speaking of tools, last winter’s high profile addition to the front office was the hiring of Jeff Luhnow and the establishment of the sabermetric view of the game”
I take Cash or Money Orders…NO CHECKS!
Those are not my words. That is a question asked to him by the reporter.
My words had nothing to do with sabers. I didn’t comment on them. I commented on the fact he like many other GMs is that he seems to use as much data as he can.
There are people on these boards who would prefer their GM to IGNORE any advanced stats/data.
Oh please Jassup, It’s your story, YOU picked the subject, you picked the quotes, I didn’t say you said Sabermetrics just got paid for each mention of it!
Without you that mention of Sabers never appears!
Please note, I am not Brian Walton. I said nothing of sabermetrics but merely showed that they do more than look at data. They do it all, which is what I have said to you over… and over… and over. Yet you continue to assume and tell me that I think a certain way
You quoted it in YOUR piece which is mentioning it!
Look I was just busting your balls but you have to admit you brought this up when it barely makes a case FOR sabers just good hard nosed evaluations that MAY use Sabers, May use new and proprietary Metrics and scouting all rolled into a new equation…
I’m not telling you what you think YOU are telling everyone what you think by picking the content you do!
Metsie, I will also add this question to you
You realize that people here who find value in sabermetrics are not the ones saying it’s the only data of value right? The only people who say that are the ones arguing with guys like Donal etc.
However, there ARE people who feel sabermetric statistics SHOULD NOT be a part of a GM’s workload, and that is my point. My point is when you blend concepts together and gather as much data as you can get, it increases your chances of making good decisions.
When you ignore sabermetrics and refuse to acknowledge they have any value, then you’re ignoring valuable data.
i actually think traditional scouting is of virtually no value whatsoever. the scouts can go get radar gun readings, but that is about all they are good for.
“Sabers are about OB not statistical analysis!”
I don’t even know how to respond. This is the most inaccurate statement I may have ever read about anything.
You don’t know how to respond because you can’t find anything to disprove what I said!
SABERMETRICS is only ONE FORM of Statistical analysis that works on the premise make fewer outs you will score more runs!
Statisitical Analysis makes no such assumptions or biases in any way. It merely takes numbers and analyzes them!
Sabermetrics is a PHILOSOPHY that uses Statistical analysis to find what that philosophy says!
It is not the SAME as Statistical analysis although you guys would sure like to say it is because then it gives sabers some use that they don’t have all by themselves unless you believe in that philosophy!
Sabermetrics are advanced statistics. It really couldn’t be any more black and white that that. Advanced statistical analysis analyzes sabermetric statistics. You can agree or disagree with it’s usefulness, but there’s no disputing that.
Sabermetrics are advanced statistics…
BUT
Advanced statistics are not SABERMETRICS!
Advanced statistical analysis analyzes STATISTICS not just Sabers, but also traditionals and other metrics that have nothing to do with Sabers or have any relation to sabers at all!
You can try and paint them out to be sabers but they are not!
They are something NEW!
a saber guy adopting them does not make them Sabers!
i think what metsie is saying is that rational analysis necessarily reaches some conclusions, for example that OBP is far, far more relvant than BA, that he simply wont accept. so while a “philosophy” might be to have players with hight OBP (which is the same as having players that score runs), metsie might deny that conclusion because he is irrational and only accepts numbers, not the conclusions those numbers actually objectively mean.
OBP isrelevent only to OBP not hitting!
An HBP and BB has nothing to do with hittting a ball!
Saying it relevant is just bull!
Not relevent to judging hitters at all!
I don’t accept it because I know the variables contained in OBP and they include things the Pitcher does not the batter!
Therefore USELESS in judging a batter!
Does getting hit by a pitch mean you a good Hitter Martin?
YOU SAY YES!
Which is why no one buys your OBP!
Becuase it is useless to judge BATTING!
Even Jessup says SLG is better and when combined with BA in the same way OBP is to create OPS it gives you a FULL accounting of EARNED OB and Hitter ability!
Your problem is your beholden to a book who could not use that because high BA/SLG guys actually get paid a lot!
Very timely article Jessep, Good job digging this one out.
One thing about the Cards 2004 draft though, they didn’t get anyone. Other years weren’t necessarily that much better.
2005 Colby Rasmus (supp pick for Renteria) a HS kid and Jaime Garcia (22nd rnd HS)
2006 Chris Perez (Supp pick for Matt Morris), John Jay and Allen Craig.
2007 Daniel Descalso
2008 Brett Wallace and Lance Lynn (supp pick for Percivel)
2009 Shelby Miller HS kid.
I’m not for or against sabermetrics but I just don’t see the application of them as to how they relate to drafting. The college environment is so totally different than even a short season league and the best players, the one’s who get up at the earliest ages and have the longer and better careers come to professional baseball straight from HS and that would be completely impossible to find any relevance to numbers.
College players cost less to draft and get to the Majors at a better percentage than HS kids but they don’t (overall) produce as much or for as long as HS kids who make it.
The two best picks the Cards have made since 2004 from a talent standpoint are definitely Rasmus and Miller. Both out of HS and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone other than Pujols and Molina (their two best everyday players, one HS, one a year removed) who came from the farm and that was back in ’99 and ’00. Perhaps McClennon (22nd 2002), Mott (19th 2003) and Lynn (supp rnd Perceival 2008) but that could be as much Duncan as anything else and it certainly is a HUGE help to produce part of your pen yourself but still…
Carpenter was DFA’d by Toronto, Rhodes by Texas when they traded for Adams. Lohse a type B (or worse), Berkman a type B, Freeze, Furcal, Theriot, Westbrook, Jackson and Dotel trades. Wainwright was a trade as well.
I’d say the Cardinals success really has a lot more to do with Dave Duncan developing or re establishing pitchers, trades that worked out well, relying on type B free agents instead of roster clogging retreads on big multi year deals and having the best player in the Majors and one of the best catchers in baseball and that goes all the way back to good work done under Jockety more than 10 years ago and even at that their entire season left them just the thinest margin of error.
That and the fact that they only had one type A free agent, not a whole slew of them.
Yeah, I tend to think it’s the combination of LaRussa, Duncan, & Pujols that has seen a team get more out of less than any other team. Their pitching is always good even when the pitchers sucked before. While I dislike LaRussa, you can’t deny that he is certainly good at what he does. And for a while, I thought that the “rocker” from ATL was the best pitching coach around, Duncan is bar none the best in the biz.
playing in the NL Central has helped them in many years also.
BINGO!
correct. the playoffs are random. the best way to get to the playoffs is to play in a weak division. the best team doesn not win the world series. the best team is the team with the best record in the toughest division. the cardinals are definitely not as good as 3 team in the AL east.
Which is why I would love baseball to get away from divisional play and go back to 2 leagues AL and NL with no divisions.
The top 4 teams in each league make the playoffs with the 4 seed playing the 1 seed and 2 seed plays the 3 seed.A balanced schedule,every team plays the same number of games against every team. This way we’ll never have a case where the Dodgers in 2008 make the playoffs with 84 wins and the Mets go home with 89 wins and get punished for being in the tougher division.
No divisions gaurantees the best 4 records make the playoffs every year.It seems to happen every couple of years where we have a weak division and a team winning the division has less wins than a 3rd place team in a tough division.
If not for the work stoppage in 1994 the Rangers would have won the AL West 11 games under 500.The Cardinals wouldn’t have made the post season in 2006 let alone win it all.I hope when they make 2 15 team leagues that they one day get rid of divisionall play alltogether.If Houston goes to the AL ther will be at least one interleague game every day.
I know that you know that I know that you know that I know… Holy Crap? What is this an Abbott and Costello or Honeymooners episode.