13
2011
R.I.P. Moneyball
An article by 
I think it is time to talk about what Moneyball ACTUALLY means and to show some of those who claim to have read the book what the book is all about. Apparently, reading doesn’t always lead to UNDERSTANDING.
I have read the book, it was interesting to learn about the little known “behind the scenes” process of team building and how a front office operates. It is for THAT reason the book sold so well not because it was chock-full of useful information, formulas and strategy. It did have some information which would be useful for ANY team regardless of targeted payroll ceiling, and it did help to show how Statistical Analysis can help you find some hidden value where none is actually perceived.
The book discusses quite well the methodology used but mostly because it would be a pretty short book if it just said we used statistical analysis to find cheap players. I suspect this is the main reason why people confuse Sabers with Moneyball. The book expended a great deal of effort explaining what methodology they used to find “cheap” players which was the central goal of Moneyball.
Sabermetrics or advanced statistics were one of the predominant tools used to rank and identify who had the quality that was deemed UNDERVALUED but also used to identify what quality it was that was undervalued.
Sabermetrics are based largely on Bill James’ work and his work is mostly about how important On-Base Percentage is to winning (right or wrong that’s what conclusion he came to in its most simplistic form).
By using that strategy, your initial ranking of ALL players is going to FAVOR players with high a OBP and rank them accordingly. If you use OBP alone to identify what players are undervalued many low cost players will not show up on your list of top players simply because you ignored so many other aspects of the game.
Using the Moneyball method to exploit market inefficiencies in the early 2000’s, doesn’t guarantee that you will come up with all the top low-cost players today. Markets change every year. It worked great for a little while back in the day, but that was then and this is now.
Now onto the topic at hand, the processes which will no doubt cause much vitriol in the comments?
MONEYBALL no matter what methodology used to arrive at the goal is about NOT SPENDING MONEY or Spending as little as possible. The REASON for implementing it is varied:
- Not having the money to spend due to low fan attendance and revenues.
- Cheap Ownership who are more interested in profit than wins and force the GM to shop at Kmart.
- Blind stupidity that convinces you that minimizing your player options translates to more success. I call this the “penny wise, pound foolish” syndrome!
Sabermetrics was used in the Book as a comparative means to identify players who fit the qualities they were looking for. But it was not the decider in who to get. Sabermetrics does not INCORPORATE player salary in their metrics. Two Players judged by Sabers can be equal while one gets paid 8 Million per year while the other gets the league Minimum!
So while the Sabers may have identified the players and created the initial MASTER LIST of candidates it did not DECIDE which one the team was going to get because there are probably a lot of HIGHLY PAID players on that list as well.
Look at the 2011 Top OBP leaders:
- Joey Votto
- Prince Fielder
- Lance Berkman
- Matt Kemp
- Ryan Braun
- Matt Holliday
- Carlos Beltran
- Troy Tulowitzki
Do you see any hidden gems or $1 million dollar a year players?
So you used OBP to identify all the players that you deemed were GOOD, but then eliminated all the players who were being paid accordingly for their talents, in this case all of them.
You see MONEYBALL is about REMOVING high salary players from the candidate list…
Sabermetrics are not the central driver of the Philosophy in Moneyball. MONEY is!
The Red Sox who are most often used as an example of a Moneyball team use advanced stats, but they SKIP the most important step needed for Moneyball… The removal of any players or options that command a high salary!
The Red Sox never removed those higher priced options from their list of targeted players… Oakland DID!
This is why the Red Sox actually won a WS and have the third highest Payroll in baseball while Oakland has never won a championship since they implemented Moneyball.
The Red Sox never limited their options based on Money.
Yes they both used sabermetrics, in fact most teams do, but the Red Sox did not ignore quality players because of money! They did not discard a better option merely because he made more than a cheaper and more inferior player!
Oakland did!
Even if a player had a superior OBP or SLG,Oakland would ignore those sabermetrics and that better player in favor of the lesser player and $$$$$.
Red Sox did no such thing! THEY ARE NOT A MONEYBALL TEAM! You can say they are a Sabermetric team as many teams are these days in some respect or another.
SABERMETRICS DOES NOT EQUAL MONEYBALL!
SABERMETRICS = A Limited Form of Statistical Analysis!
Statistical Analysis DOES NOT EQUAL SABERMETRICS! There are many ways to analyze stats and they don’t all subscribe to the theories put forth by Bill James and all those profiting in his footsteps.
Statistical Analysis is a means of calculating stats and placing importance on some stats over others but they do not show you the cheapest player nor compare price per performance in any way shape or form.
Now we COULD debate Sabermetrics in and of itself, but it really isn’t relevant to this conversation. Yes Sabers seem to be good at comparing players but Sabers themselves and the philosophy of Bill James is not required, important, or the be-all and end-all of Statistical Analysis!
Bill didn’t really INVENT statistical analysis we have ALWAYS looked at stats as a comparator. Bill James’ contribution was to create a few metrics that placed importance where he saw fit. I’m not going to debate if he’s right or wrong here, it is not the focus.
You do not need to read MONEYBALL nor any of Bill James books to create or use good metrics. Anyone can do it and if you work hard to ensure you are not biasing the data to show what you want, you will also come up with the right answers.
No single stat will ever give you the complete picture of any player. To say that OBP is a better metric than BA because it takes all PA into consideration doesn’t make it better. An even better metric can be achieved than the ones Bill James came up with.
How about a metric that takes into account moving the runner over or driving in a run regardless of an out being made? It would tell you a lot more about a player than either BA and OBP.
The thing that Moneyball SUCCESSFULLY showed was not that saving money is the way to go, but that DEEP STATISTICAL ANALYSIS is the key to making good decisions because you are making an EDUCATED Guess – an informed decision.
But MONEYBALL discards much of that information and the end result is as old as the game of baseball itself, how much they get paid!
Moneyball uses Sabermetrics to come up with answers, and then IGNORES the answers given based on COST!
Moneyball is not about Sabers or statistical analysis it is about NOT SPENDING MONEY!
The Braves have been used as an example of a team that did it the right way and they did it without the benefits of Moneyball. (They were pretty much done winning championships by the time Moneyball was invented!) They built a good team that was cheap because they developed it from scratch. Fine to do provided you have the patience to wait as long as it took them – decades of losing and a bit of good luck and timing and Greg Maddux. They finally built a team that carried them to five league championships and their one World Series title.
If they had spent some additional payroll to maintain their edge they might have won a few more WS and Titles.
The notion that spending less means winning more does not hold true. Building BETTER (regardless of methodology and COST) leads to better teams.
And by handcuffing and limiting your choices based on money means you make it that much harder to succeed. Because when you place limits on yourself that preclude you from many options, you helped give the opposition who did not limit their choices an ADVANTAGE OVER YOU!
While Oakland might seem to have done well despite limiting themselves via implementing Moneyball, the bottom-line is Moneyball didn’t get the job done!
And while it might seem wise to a Moneyballer to point out how many playoffs Oakland went to while spending peanuts, you still have that little issue that the Yankees won more titles and World Series spending money.
1998 – 2011
Oakland A’s – AL League Championships 0, World Series Titles 0
NY Yankees – AL League Championships: 6, World Series Titles: 4
The great equalizer, Moneyball was not!
And what COULD/WOULD the story be if they had just spent a little to keep the cheap players they had worked so hard to find from walking away?
Or to compliment the team with players who would cost a little more, but would have increased profits due to WS ticket sales and victories?
How far might they have gone if they simply signed rather than ignored the best players they themselves calculated based on their UNDERVALUED Metrics?
When you LIMIT your choices based on self imposed financial limitations, you will not have the same success as those teams who use the same statistical analysis to pluck all the productive players that are out of YOUR price range!
Cheaper isn’t ALWAYS BETTER… You GET what you pay for! Not in every circumstance but more often than not.
MONEYBALL is Penny Wise and POUND FOOLISH…
Especially now when all teams use advanced metrics everyday, but are willing to pay for the best available talent.
R.I.P. Moneyball
This Fan Shot was submitted by Mike (Metsie). Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over eleven-thousand Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 28 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 35 | .493 | 7.5 |
| Phillies | 34 | 37 | .479 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 40 | .385 | 14.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 47 | .319 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/18/2013
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“I think it is time to talk about what Moneyball ACTUALLY means and to show some of those who claim to have read the book what the book is all about.”
HYPOCRISY AHOY!
good article.
MONEYBALL is Penny Wise and POUND FOOLISH…
Especially now when all teams use advanced metrics everyday, but are willing to pay for the best available talent.
R.I.P. Moneyball
That was all you needed to say. Moneyball is long past it’s usefullness and that’s why Oakland is in the toilet with a terrible farm to boot.
SINCE “POUND” IN THIS INSTANCE OF THIS BRITISH ORIOGINATED SAYING IS A MONETARY VALUE AKIN TO THE DOLLAR IT’S ACTUALLY LESS APROPRIATE AS THE AUTHOR ENLIGHTENINGLY INFORMS US MONEYBALL IS ALL ABOUT THE DOLLAR aka “THE POUND” AS I RECALL, IN TODAY’S BASEBALL FINANCIAL UNIVERSE TURNSTILE REVENUE IS A MINORITY SOURCE OF INCOME ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO MEDIA INCOME & SHARED REVENUES.
IT’S UNFORTUNATE THE ENTIRE,ACTUAL MLB FINANCIAL PICTURE IS VIRTULALLY UNKNOWN ESP AS IT PERTAINS TO A SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL FRANCHISE. ONLY FULL FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE CAN ASCERTAIN THE MOST LIKELY SUCCESSFUL FORMULA EACH TEAM SHOULD FOLLOW. ESPECIALLY AS IT REGARDS THIS AUDIENCE ON THIS SITE THE METS’ SPECIFIC PARTICULARS IS CERTAINLY REQUIRED BEFORE ANY OF US CAN STATE FOR CERTAIN THEY ‘KNOW’ WHAT DIRECTION WE SHOULD TAKE. TYPICALLY BY ASSUMING U KNOW THE “LAY OF THE LAND” U ARE APT TO REPEAT ONE OF THE MOST AMUSINGLY IGNORED CONCLUSIONS THAT RESULTED IN NATIVE AMERICANS BEARING THE MISNOMER OF
“INDIANS” DESPITE THEW MANY THOUSANDS OF MILES SPARATING THEM FROM THE LAND(INDIA) THAT WOULD CONNOTATE THAT MONIKER. AS COLUMBUS’ ASSUMED HIS GEOGRAPHICAL VIEW SO TO DO MANY MERT FANS DARE PRESUME TO KNOW WHERE THE METS STAND AMONG PRESENT DAY MLB FINANCIAL TERRAIN. ACTUALLY, I PERSONALLY CONTEND THERE IS NO MAGIC FORMULA FOR MLB SUCCESS OUTSIDE OF BUILDING UPON CURRENT SUCCESS WHEREVER IT’S FOUND, WHENEVER PRACTICAL WITHIN FINANCIAL PARAMETERS KEEPING SUCCESSFUL PLAYERS, PROVIDING INTERDEPENDENT,RELIABLE SUCCESSFUL ROSTERS PLANNING THE “LONG HAUL” OVER THE CURRENT STINT. MAKING DECISIONS MORE RELEVANT TO THE FUTURE THAN THE PAST. DESPITE FANBASE’S FIXATION ON THE LATTER & INSEURITY RELEVENT TO THE FORMER.
Very well stated. I hate it when people consider Moneyball and sabermetrics one and the same. Hopefully they’ll read this and learn that sabermetrics is just a catch-all for all advanced statistics beyond the age-old traditional ones, and that moneyball was simply a book about a GM who used an advanced stat to try and find some value in lower cost players by exploiting market inefficiencies. And yes, those inefficiencies have been exploited and are no more.
Obviously they should just have picked guys based on RBIs.
It would be better than picking guys based on OBP. To cover that just look at their avg and just randomly ad 40-80 points depending on the hitter. And if you recognize the name that shouldn’t be any problem at all.
Mets can use some guys to drive in runners.
So your sarcastic reply was not only snarky but it was stupid and uneducated too.
still going on this misguided crusade I see. But, nice to see that you are keeping the conversation on a nice level!
i believe you are the one who is misguided. In fact, I know you are.
i know you are but what am i… Is this where this is going? Are too! Am not!
“It would be better than picking guys based on OBP”
No. That has already been established many times over. Do you need help catching up from 1998? Should I send a DeLorean or a police box to go get you?
“To cover that just look at their avg and just randomly ad 40-80 points depending on the hitter.”
first of all, an 80 point swing is notable. Second, why can’t we just do the reverse?
“And if you recognize the name that shouldn’t be any problem at all.”
You’d be surprised.
“Mets can use some guys to drive in runners.”
They could use some more power, ya, but they didn’t really have a problem in the run scoring department.
“So your sarcastic reply was not only snarky but it was stupid and uneducated too.”
No, his was sarcastic, yours was stupid.
Again all you offer is derison and never any data!
Obviously you are INCAPABLE of any meaningfull debate or capable of backing up ANYTHING you say!
You just sit there insult and ask everyone else to back up the things they said 50 times more than they already did originally!
You should just stay out of these things if you have no meaningfull contribution to offer!
Yep! It sure wouldn’t have hurt them!
1995 Oakland 694, Yankees 709
1996 Oakland 823, Yankees 830
1997 Oakland 714, Yankees 846
1998 Oakland 755, Yankees 907
1999 Oakland 845, Yankees 855
2000 Oakland 908, Yankees 833 (first instance of Oakland having more! Yankees win WS with Pitching!)
2001 Oakland 835, Yankees 774 (2nd and LAST instance of Oakland having moreYanks fail to win the WS)
2002 Oakland 772, Yankees 857
2003 Oakland 742, Yankees 845
2004 Oakland 752, Yankees 863
2005 Oakland 739, Yankees 847
2006 Oakland 735, Yankees 902
2007 Oakland 711, Yankees 929
2008 Oakland 610, Yankees 785
2009 Oakland 723, Yankees 881
2010 Oakland 619, Yankees 823
2011 Oakland 612, Yankees 836
But the A’s had the better OBP???
I dont get it???
According to all the saber calculations and spreadsheets the A’s league leading OBP should have led to more runs and more World Series championships.
This is a real head scratcher.
LOL Yeah I didn’t go there but it would also seem that the team who picked for high OBP didn’t actually get it!
95 Y .357 O .341
96 Y .360 O .344
97 Y .362 O .339
98 Y .364 O .338
99 Y .366 O .355
00 Y .354 O .360 (One win for Oakland)
01 Y .334 O .345 (Two for Oakland)
02 Y .354 O .339
03 Y .356 O .327
04 Y .353 O .343
05 Y .355 O .330
06 Y .363 O .340
07 Y .366 O .338
08 Y .342 O .318
09 Y .362 O .328
10 Y .350 O .324
11 Y .343 O .311
This is where they try and claim since Oakland had a higher OBP they scored more runs in 2000 and 2001
2000 Oakland .270 BA, 239 HRs vs Yankees .277 BA, 205 HRs!
2001 Oakland .264 BA, 199 Hrs, 640 BB vs Yankees, .267 BA, 203 HRs, 519 Walks
2001 is the ONLY year that really fits their model!
The Pitchers allowed them more base on Balls and since they hit almost as many HRs as the Yankees (who only marginally hit better) the extra OB gave them more runs!
They will now try and use 2001 as proof and all the other years as OUTLIERS!
Which will expose the OUT LIARS!
Hey Maniac notice not a single peep about how a team who PICKED for OBP actually didn’t get it!
They avoided it like the Retarded Sibling in the mental institution because they know they can’t really bring up any proof to defend against the reality!
Wow, nice and offensive statement there. I haven’t read any posts since you compared Oakland as a market to San Fran, nor will I… but I log on and see this as the most recent comment
“They avoided it like the Retarded Sibling in the mental institution because they know they can’t really bring up any proof to defend against the reality!”
You stay classy over there Metsie.
I tell you what Jessup!
You reign in your classless acts and I guarantee the intelligence level of ALL the comments will improve geometrically!
reign in your two USELESS and POINTLESS buttonmen Donal and Who and I guarantee you the quality of posts and insults will go down to NOTHING!
Those are the guys who USUALLY start with the classless posts and it just degenerates from there!
What I said was not so much classless as insensitive!
But you know what you play to the audience!
And there are fewer and fewer GOOD posters these days because all of your CHIORBOYS keep degenerating everything to YOUR CRAZY and INSULTS!
So start there and I guarantee the rest will follow!
Dont hold your breath Metsie, he loves instigating these flame wars.
Yeah I know its more about changing the subject than anything to do with what I said!
He was just fine with classless posts when they were in his favor and defending his position!
NOT A PEEP from him!
But as always I challenge those who challenge me to stand to post and hold the line!
Maniac & Metsie:
I appreciate your efforts to drag me through the mud and try and claim that anything I say is remotely close to the above statement made by Metsie.
The fact is, having a different opinion is not insensitive or classless. Whenever some of us have differing views it turns into World War 3 because some people would rather yell and scream rather than talk and listen.
I’m not interested in having a pissing contest with you. At the end of the day, you see things differently than I and that’s fine. But I won’t stoop so low as to say things like
“They avoided it like the Retarded Sibling in the mental institution because they know they can’t really bring up any proof to defend against the reality”
and then claim victory when a response isn’t given. A response wasn’t given because you proven to me that you cannot debate or discuss like an adult.
I look forward to the next topic when I am sure you will make every attempt to justify your ridiculous statements.
No you will just say things like we are out contention 7.5 games out of the wilcard, call us crazy for not believing you only to see the Card win it after being 10 games out a month later!
And if you had any reading comprehension at all you would have gotten that I wasn’t trasing the kid in the institution I was trashing the person who IGNORES them because they ARE ashamed of them!
But explaining the truth to you is like pulling teeth!
Your more interested in your COMPOSED Fantasy than ANY real discussion of facts!
HAHAHA they even voted to hide it now! ROFLMAO!
Damn the truth hurts!
I feel like Wikileaks vs Obama now!
Excellent work, Metsie
I odn’t think it had anything to do with spending less as some kind of philosophy, or as an end goal (in Oakland at that time, the only real situation relevant to moneyball).
rather, it is about getting the most value for the payroll you can spend. IOW, better bang for your buck.
Obviously if you spend more for the top of the heap superstars, you will have a better team. But if you don’t have the money, then you can’t.
A new BMW is better than a used Escort, but if your budget is only $5,000, what does it matter to you? Same as saying A Rod in 2005 was better than anyone on the A’s at the time. If your max payroll is only 60mill, what does it matter?
Actually, consumer’s reports magazine does this in their tests. They rate all produects and list them in score order, but also pick out particular values and label them a best buy.
so, while TV X might have finished 4th, if the top 3 were $2k and X was $1k, and the differences were minor, you could be better of getting the value one and putting the avings elsewhere.
BB teams have to do the same thing. Spend big on 1 guy, and nothing left for others.
Good now that you said all that let’s try and win some baseball games.
Any GM could have been able to do the same job as Alderson, even one that could hate moneyball and saber. Just try and get the best baseball players you can with whatever your budget you have, and you can do that if you have good baseball people around you. And if you need to use ALL of your budget than do it. That’s why it’s called a budget because it’s money previous allotted to you solely for whatever purpose it’s needed for.
Any, I don’t even put you in the group of Moneyballers…
You may believe in it and some of what it says, And you would not be wrong to believe in SOME of what was read.
Point is we have a LOT of people here trying to relate CHEAP=BETTER!
We know this is not true!
We know this has never ever really led to a championship!
GOOD TEAMS win CHAMPIONSHIPS, regardless of what you spent!
I and no one else I know of on this site is against FINDING VALUE and GETTING IT!
I and no one else I know of on this site is suggesting to JUST THROW MONEY at WHATEVER IS AVAILABLE without some thought or evaluation.
but MANY I know of on this site thinks spending money on ANYONE who costs more than 4 mil is a FAILURE!
MANY think that you need to have a low salary team of Minor leaguers who just got promoted to win!
Its never happened since free Agency has come to pass!
Happened all the time before then because there WAS NO WAY to sign players, every team owned them for life and you had to trade for them with no need to raise their salary at all!
And there are also that feel you need to cut the payroll in order to build the Minors.
Thats ALSO plain BULL!
BEING CHEAP did not get Oakland all those kids they found and it sure didn’t let them KEEP all those kids they hit on!
You can pick good kids WHILE you are spending in the meantime to keep people in the seats, compete for something, and to keep the fans happy while you take on the LONG TERM TASK of rebuilding you Minor leagues without getting FIRED for lack of good baseball!
Omar was TRYING to do that and he got crucified because two KEY players in the puzzle got hurt The CENTERPIECE (Beltran) that was signed to hold the team together while Niese, Davis, Harvey, Familia, Havens, Mejia, Murphy and all those other kids were being developed! Reyes who was the key Catalyst to run threats!
The ACE CY YOUNG PITCHER who probably blew his arm out trying to win three games in one game because he was the ONLY ACE on the staff!
They all talk about Perez and Castillo and now Bay. Like every deal we made was as bad as those!
So this post was NEVER about Not finding value it was about the fact that if you VALUE money MORE than WINS you FAIL!
Because all the statistical analysis you did was for naught and ignored based on SALARY!
A Limitation not IMPOSED by the league, and not conducive to building a long term winner because what good you find will QUICKY be TOO VALUABLE for you to keep!
Such is the case with Reyes this year!
Wright will be the next Target!
Then Niese
Then Davis
Then Tejada
Then Harvey, Familia, Havens, Flores, Mejia, Murphy ett etc…
And then 8 years down the road it will be said the team is losing money we muct NOT SPEND, We must REBUILD the MINORS because we were not willing to keep the Minors we found in the PREVIOUS REBUILD!
It’s a Vicious cycle!
And the way people talk around here they won’t spend UNTIL they win a WS!
Well whats the point then? If you won the WS you already HAVE what you need!
The problem here is that WS WIN using Moneyball and the REBUILD the MINOR option won’t happen for another 10-12 years!
Because you have to lose an awful lot ans suck wholesale to do it that way!
And which GM is going to stay 12 years in NY without winning at least a Wildcard?
“We can’t afford to buy, We are losing money because we aren’t winning
R.I.P Moneyball!!!!!! excellent article!!!
people here wanna give too much credit to Moneyball, well, to those idiots let me just say it wasn’t money ball who were winning those games, it was all the high draft picks oakland were getting from being in the toilet from 1993 up until 1998 when the avg 92 losses per season and finish every year either last or 3rd in the division. give credit to beane for hitting jackpot with the pitchers he drafted and for looking the other way while giambi and tejada were juicing up, it was a good story and fun while it lasted, but then, they lost all the good pitchers, and good players to get more draft picks, and the result has been an avg of 76 wins per season the last 5 years.. REST IN PEACE MONEYBALL…
“it wasn’t money ball who were winning those games, it was all the high draft picks oakland were getting from being in the toilet from 1993 up until 1998″
So it was the ever so valuable Willie Adams, John Wasdin, Ben Grieve, Ariel Prieto, Denny Wagner, Nathan Haynes, Eric DuBose, Chris Enochs?
Only Mulder (drafted 98) and Chavez (drafted 96) were 1st rounders from 93 to 98.
Unless we keep lowering the bar of “high draft picks” to fit one’s argument, it even works if you talk about 2nd rounders
so, let me ask you something, does that mean that all the draft picks in the first round during those putry years became bust??!?!?
didn’t you say the 99-06 teams benefitted from the high draft picks earned because of 93-98 failing seasons?
How “high” is high? If the 1st rounders overall didn’t do much of anything for Beane’s success, nor did the 2nd rounders… then how does the 93-98 results impact 99-06?
jesseP and agge rare such a floppers is not even funny, this is for bayonne and maniac, guys, remember a few years back when jesseP wrote this:
“Jessep says:
August 19, 2009 at 1:17 pm
I agree with the Braves but the difference to me was clearly the Angels not only develop the talent and draft well like the Braves do… but they also are willing to spend big money in the free agent market. Atlanta has done quite well with homegrown talent, but when it comes to bringing in top free agents… they just do not compete. The Angels handle all sides of the argument so well, and there is no realistic reason why the Mets can’t design themselves to follow the Angels
since the angels were out of it the last 2 years he then JUMPED to the braves bandwagon, then of course, after the massive choke job they did this year, this man was actually hurt the braves lost and disappear from this site for like a week.. lol, how pathetic!!
It’s sad that as a Mets fan, you can’t spell Agee correctly (you know, as in Tommy Agee).
i refused to use agee’s name to that fool.. so i called him whatever i want BUT tommy agee’s name.. mind your business ok..
Mind my business? This is a message board, not a private phone call. Grow up.
It sad that the post you just made is probably the best example of a contribution you have ever made to this site!
Good! I’ve made one more contribution than you’ve ever made here.
yeah well your here because of an article I wrote stupid!
How many have you written and does Mommy type all your posts for you?
This is a contribution? It’s a pretty poor one if you ask me, filled with nonsense and conspiracy theories.
More than any you have made!
Do you need someone to burp you before you go to sleep?
Ummm I’d still love for the Mets to design their franchise after the Angels and Braves.
so wait, those 2 franchise have 2 world series COMBINED!!!!! explained to me what exactly is to design about them again???? stop it man, you are the most ridiculous mets fan. really, you need to stop this insanity bro, is becoming sad and pathetic..
Over the last 12 years LAA (since Sciosia) has averaged 88 wins a season. Over the last 15 years the Braves have averaged 92 wins a season.
The Angels are the 2nd tier team in a big city, sound familar? The Braves have been a model franchise in terms of player development and dealing with their players since 1991.
If you can’t see how that is RIDICULOUSLY impressive then there’s nothing I can do for you except tell you Santa is real, and the sky is orange.
I guess you think that success is achieved by merely lowering the bar not actually achieving coparative success….
Jessup says: “I am going to be a Successful Long Jumber!
The Current World record is 8.91m
Jessup says: “Well I can’t do that so I’m going to say that 5.5m is a success, do that and call myself a success!”
Yankees have averaged 96 Wins the last 12 years!
Your not really interested in REAL success just enough to call your MONEYBALL THEORY a Success hoping no one notices what the rest of the league actually did SUCCESSFULLY!
Not because they lowered the BAR but RAISED the PERFORMANCE!
Please Metsie,
We’ve had 12 losing seasons in the last 21 years playing monkeyball and fantasy baseball with the roster every season.
Averaging 88 or 92 wins a year would be seriously raising the bar for us.
Believe me, I would kill for this team to average 88-92 wins a year.
MetsMerized should be commended for being the ONLY SITE on the internet that I know of that has such fierce debate between the pro saber/moneyball crowd vs. the more traditional crowd.
And I also think MetsBlog should do a story on MetsMerized for just that reason because certainly AA doesn’t doesn’t have any debate because it’s like a cult site more than a baseball site over there. Metsblog has no such kind of debate because the feeling i get there is mainly commenters just shrug their shoulders and accept whatever is thrown at them and just follow the lead.
And there’s been no kind of debate in mainstream media that I know of. No saber vs. anti-saber segments on SNY, MSG, MLB Network, etc. I don’t watch ESPN so I don’t know if they ever did.
As far as I know this is the only place, let alone website, but the only PLACE where such debate occurs and I think we have a diamond in the rough here that should be getting more publicity
The people who are on the fence about saber/moneyball would realize the fraud it basically is if they were exposed to such debates but there is no public challenge to saber/moneyball in mainstream media.
It’s about time for one.
Jeez…what’s your beef with this AA site? You seem to be obsessed with them. Did they kick your dog or something?
They post like little children whenever Moneyball or OBP is attacked and pretty much say the same crap you do!
You read that site too?
Sure I read plenty of sites!
reading is good for the mind you know…You should try it more often instead of the childish insults and false facts you can’t back up!
If you read more you might actually find the FACTS that could support some of the tripe you post!
Childish insults?
Yep you play to your audience I always say!
Since that seems to be all you do and understand might as well stick with what you can digest!
I’ve only read that site a few times but I’ve never posted there before. You should try to post there and see what happens. They seem like a smart crowd…maybe they’ll agree with what you say.
Yeah if you think they are SMART then that tells me all I need to know about thier shoesize IQ!
If you’re going to talk a big game, you should at least back it up. Post this piece over there and see what they think. If you’re so smart, you’ll overpower them.
Post it your4self butt wipe I don’t take oders from anyone under 10 years old!
That IS how old you are isn’t it? 7? 6? 5? Please don’t tell me your younger than that!
You sound like you are but I refuse to believe any parent would be that negligent allowing their kid on the internet!!
You’re a real troll. You’re obviously not a man, you obviously are a little wimp. Aww I hope I didn’t make little Metsie cry.
Metsie is a troll? No I think your the one that’s the troll. Your a regular over at amazin avenue – Your not fooling anyone.
When “DWRIGHT5RULES” also know as “Dandy Salderson” over at AA(you know the Guy who wrote that post making fun of Metsie the other day)wrote a post here you said this: “This is the master right here”
So you obviously know who the guy is. So how can you know who he is if you don’t read that site? Of course you read it, and you comment there all the time, your not fooling anyone.
Talking into the mirror again? Not surprised your not what I would call a social butterfly!
Here are some of the reasons:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/10/3/2466491/rbi-the-mets
and if you put in “metsmerized” on their little search there are 227 comments on there mostly making fun of this site. And when you type in “MMO” there’s 75 comments mostly making fun on this site. And when you put in “bayonne Mets fan” there are 86 comments mostly making fun of him – so that’s 388 comments (388!!!)in total on their site making fun of this site and the readers here just because we have different views on baseball than them.
What kind of site does that? I mean, who can spend so much time making fun of another Mets site? It’s kind of sad…..and also, the commenters there like to come on here and troll all the time.
Does that answer your question?
Who cares? Why not just ignore them and read only what you like to read?
Why don’t you do the same?
I’ll agree with that whole fierce debate thing, but it’s also pretty monotonous seeing the same people (like you) making the same arguments everytime this subject comes up. Why does it always have to be reduced to a mud slinging contest? I love the varied opinions here and always have, it’s definitely unique in that regard, but the level of vitriol is just too much sometimes.
well maybe the passion that’s showed here is all the more reason this debate deserves more of a mainstream media or public forum. Don’t worry about the different types of personalities involved in the debate that’s just the way it goes but maybe a more mainstream media debate would take of that
Hahaha mainstream media or public forum? Get the heck out of here! You’re writing nonsense on a message board…you’re not splitting the atom or finding a cure for cancer!
It’s really hilarious. Get over yourself!
the reason this debate is not mainestream is because your side is all kooks that can only find an audience at a place like this where the owner doesnt know the difference between the words complement and compliment.
that and it would be as boring as hell if you aren’t really into it.
See what I mean Squidoo?
Your comment is so right that I’m going to repost it:
“the reason this debate is not mainestream is because your side is all kooks that can only find an audience at a place like this where the owner doesnt know the difference between the words complement and compliment.”
Great job!
Maybe if the MONEYALL side of the debate would actually bring stats as opposed to insults and success lowering metrics to show it’s worth we would have a passionate AND meaningful debate on the subject…
But they would rather call us all LOONS, CRAZY, WRONG and show no proff to back it up!
Mostly because they can’t PROVE what they believe!
They simply believe it and anyone who doesn’t is crazy and dumb!
You mean the way you use math to disprove Tango’s work rather than just dismiss it out of hand…oh wait.
And again, there’s no point to dissecting your math, because there are problems in logic that need to be addressed first, that have been repeatedly pointed out to you, you just refuse to acknowledge them.
You math should prove any problems of Logic!
So far the only LOGIC you have proposed is RBI ACTUALLY is related to RS so it can NOT CO-RELATE since a CORELATION muct be two numbers than have nothing to do with each other!
OBP relates to RS the same as PA, BREATHING, RUNNING, SHOWING UP TO THE PARK, all relate to RS!
Yes it’s something that has to happenb BEFORE as RS can be achieved but it isn’t the REASON the RS was achieved!
But what would you know about logic you can’t even stop yourself from contradicting yourself in the same post!
“You math should prove any problems of Logic!”
Not when you can’t even get past the fundamental nature of the relationships involved.
Your math is REQUIRED to show the fundamental nature of the relationships…
So far you have not ESTABLISHED any fundamental relationship!
All you said is one thing had to happen in order for something else to happen.
OB had to happen for RS to happen!
SHOWING UP TO THE PARK also HAD TO HAPPEN before a RS could be scored by the player!
He had to step into the BATTERS BOX in order for an RS to be recorded!
He had to BREATHE to socre an RS as well!
and ALL of those things CORRELATE as well as OBP does!
ALL OF THEM ARE REQUIRED!
SO you basically are relating something that has nothing to do with scoring runs merely because it had to happen in every case a run scored!
Thats not logic it’s just relating coinicdence to result!
Squidoo -First off I agree with the sentiment…
But you have to admit that the guys who argue with Bayonne do it as much if not MORE than Bayonne does and not just to Bayonne!
to ANYONE who is a NON-BELIEVER in the GOOD BOOK MONEYBALL and the Mighty Exhalted POPE OBP!
I certainly wish more of those guys would instead of insulting, calling crazy and dismissing as bull present the data that shows what they believe so the FACTS could be debated not the beliefs!
But sadly there are no facts they can present so they use other means, subterfuge, cirlce jerking conversations and INSULTS to make their case!
I wish it would stop but as you see it doesn’t!
I started making Fan Posts so that what I was saying did not get lost in the subterfuge and crap that the bad comments made tend to suppress because it gets lost in the reply chain!
And until someone wants to have an ORGANIZED debate where only FACTS and DATA are presented, We are left with the children acting like 3rd graders because none of them HAVE evidence to present just a belief system they can’t justify because they don’t REALLY understand those beliefs, Just follow the leaders of the religion like Crusaders ignoring THOU SHALL NOT KILL lwas in the Middle Ages!
For GOD and the CHURCH!
KILL and MAIN the HERETICS!
It’s sad but it is humanity!
maim.
And your Fan Posts are based on logical fallacies and false pretenses. That’s why no one bothers arguing math with you. You haven’t worked your way up to it yet.
Yeah because you HAVE TO SHOW math to argue about it…
And your math doesn’t work!
Much like your brain!
No, you aren’t up to the math. Your premise is based on false assumptions and misstating certain relationships.
We can’t even begin on the math until you understand how certain statistics are relating to each other.
Trying to work on the math with you now would be like trying to teach stunt driving to a kid who doesn’t even have a learner’s permit.
You don’t have ANY math!
NONE!
If you think you do then show it and if not shut up!
PROVE YOUR THEORY JUST ONCE PLEASE!
Prove the falsities I posted if you can….
If you can’t then I guess you are shoed to be full of it!
We’ve all proven them many times…you ignore them every time.
Yeah you have never once SHOWED this proof you say you have but never presented!
So present it now!
OR ADMIT you have none to show!
Post a link to this proof slappy!
I DARE YOU!
Nope…you’ll just ignore it like always.
How could I do otherwise!
Can’t pay any attention to what does not exist!
SHOW IT OR YOU FAIL!
(which you will then try to lower the bar on to try and make it look like a success!)
“MetsMerized should be commended for being the ONLY SITE on the internet that I know of that has such fierce debate between the pro saber/moneyball crowd vs. the more traditional crowd.”
Odd coming from a guy who generally joins with others to put down opposing views rather than address them.
Hello POT! Kettle Calling!
Have I ever threatened anyone? Do I curse people out? Do I lie about what others say?
Do I accuse others of being stupid because they have a different belief? Do I make assumptions about a person simply because I don’t like what they are saying? Do I call someone a child because they adopt a differing point of view to me?
Do I use myself as a reference and talk down to others because they aren’t “real baseball men”?
Do I get all chauvinistic and dismiss others because “I don’t argue baseball with females”?
Am I one of the ones who accuses people of making racial comments when that obviously didn’t happen but then line up to worship a writer who has a well documented history of race baiting? Simply because he was going after a GM I don’t like?
If you honestly think a sarcastic comment based on what you said in a post comes anywhere near what the people you pander to do every day around here, then you are delusional.
Yes, NO, YES
Yes,YES,YES
YES
NO
YES
“….then you are delusional”
A Fine example of the second YES on the Second Line!
Thank you for playing BEAT DONAL OVER THE HEAD WITH HIS OWN POST that shows he can’t even stop from contradicting himself in the same post!
Nifty, show me where I threatened someone, lied, called someone stupid because of what they believe, or make an assumption about their life because I don’t like what they are saying, or where I called someone a child, or used myself as a reference to talk down to someone, or play the race card and then turn around to jump in with a guy who race baits.
And yes, if you are honestly telling yourself the people you throw in with aren’t documented to do all of that stuff repeatedly, then you are delusional.
Or, you could be a liar, whichever you prefer.
Here is what you do to find examples of your fine work…
Go to search MMO box and type DONAL….
about 2000 entries that will serve as examples will show up!
So, no, you have nothing to backup what you said. Typical.
I told you how to find them you lazy bastard!
You have nothing. Show evidence or you have no argument. This is whole the real world works.
I did dopey now it’s your turn!
I don’t really understand this to be honest.
You’re telling me that a practice used in the early 2000′s when several teams were ignoring certain types of players is not currently used anymore.
Isn’t that what people like me have been saying all along? The reason “moneyball” doesn’t exist anymore is because the things it did well at are now being done by everybody. I can’t find hidden OBP hitters now because everybody values OBP with high regard. Why do you think that is?
Your argument about spending on a Mets site loses value to me. Nobody here is saying we want the Mets to work within a 40 million dollar budget like Beane had to. I’m saying that teams are proving every single year that you can win in MLB without spending 170 million dollars. When you start throwing money around, you end up with players who underperform. Would you rather Castillo or Tejada? They will likely give you the same bat at the plate right now, but one could save you millions.
I want the Mets to have a budget and spend it wisely. Not assume every single problem can be and will be fixed by spending money on free agents past their prime. That’s not Moneyball, that’s logical team management. Something that hasn’t been implemented here in a long time.
Look at the Cubs. The Cubs are in a hole just like the Mets. Why? Care free spending because they were “so close” and it dug them deeper because it wasn’t spending done right. It was spending to spend. It was done to get fans to not look at the problems but here look at us we got a guy who was once a star!
To say “moneyball is foolish” is just dumb. It worked. It got a team on a $40mil ish budget to the postseason 5 out of 7 years. You need to go back to 86 to get 5 postseasons for the Mets.
What IS true is that the system doesn’t work now. The game has changed. Partly BECAUSE of Moneyball and Billy Beane.
* I don’t really understand this to be honest.
Yes, the points articulated by Metsie may be beyond your intellect, but I applaud you for finally choosing to be honest.
* You’re telling me that a practice used in the early 2000′s when several teams were ignoring certain types of players is not currently used anymore.
Yes and hopefully idiots like Rob Neyer, David Lennon, Eric Simon and FanGraphs will stop calling this team the Moneyball Mets.
* Isn’t that what people like me have been saying all along?
Really, I never read anything from you that said that. In fact all you do is defend Moneyball which you hilariously do later on in your comment. Like you always ask others, let me ask you. Do you have a link to your quotes regarding these so-called arguments you made which Metsie did so well in this post?
* To say “moneyball is foolish” is just dumb. It worked.
Really, how many World Series did they win during this dynasty of theirs? The A’s play in the only 4-team division in the Major Leagues and during there streak the Rangers and Angels sucked. Would have loved to see them play the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox 20 games each that season.
I love when the argument comes down to the inane “how many rings did they win” phase. That’s really the “I’ve got no argument” sign.
By the way, how many rings did Omar Minaya win? How rings have the Mets won playing StupidBall the past 20 years?
One thing I’ve learned in the last few years, is that saberheads and moneyballers always consider things like winning championships inane. What’s up with that? Huh, Huh, Huh???
Read my reply to Jessep just below this…winning a WS is not the end all/be all, especially for a team like the A’s who weren’t even supposed to be competing with their tiny payroll.
Only LOSERS think that way!
Only the team who LOST ever thinks like that and they do it to ease the PAIN of their APPARENT FAILURE!
Because it takes less luck and more talent to win 90+ games out of 162 played. The playoffs are a crapshoot, everybody is even saying it now… why do you think people want 7 games so much? It’s so the better teams have the better chance at winning rather than in 5 games.
You think the Cardinals were the best team in baseball in 2006? They won the World Series and if I was a fan of theirs I would be a pig in you know what, but they won 83 games that year.
That’s 2 more games than they lost… There were 12 teams who were better than them in 2006.
If you deny the fact that averaging over 90 wins over 8 years while spending an average of less than $50mil is impressive than there really is no sense in discussing.
Most fans would give their 2nd born for their favorite team to have 8 years of playoff caliber baseball.
Think about that. That would be 1,296 times you’d sit down and listen to Gary Keith and Ron and think “we have a great chance to win this game”
Yet you want to focus on 24 games instead.
I’m not saying the World Series isn’t the goal. I’m saying sometimes the best team doesn’t win, and if you as a fan get to watch your favorite team for 8 years win an average of 93 games you are DAMN LUCKY.
And we love how if your name is Billy and you make the playoffs after 5 years of GMing it is a better success than if your name is OMAR and you do it after just TWO years of GM work!
But who made the playoffs more often? By my count, it’s Billy in a landslide.
Yeah who went to more League championships in the last 20 years? Huh?
Since Omar was only here the last 5 years how many times did Oakland get into the playoffs during that span?
Huh?
You are just a big bag of wind my friend who needs to lower the bar TWO WHOLE RUNGS before your team can beat what the Mets have accomplished in the past 20 years!
Just keep moving the goal posts, Metsie. Everyone can see through your act.
Hey you moved the poles first wittle boy!
You moved them from World Series to PLAYOFFS!
I met you in the middle and moved them back to League championships which the Mets won and oakland NEVER did in the last 20 years!
Ahem…here’s some proof for you, buddy. YOU MOVED THE POLES FIRST. You said right above me “And we love how if your name is Billy and you make the playoffs after 5 years of GMing it is a better success than if your name is OMAR and you do it after just TWO years of GM work!”
You said PLAYOFFS. You didn’t say WORLD SERIES. I was answering your comment about the PLAYOFFS with a comment about the PLAYOFFS. Proof. Right there, child.
And Which idiot was I replying to when I said that WHO?
What did HE say?
I will QUOTE:
“love when the argument comes down to the inane “how many rings did they win” phase.”
As if success is something OTHER than winning a World Series
You then followed it with:
“But who made the playoffs more often? By my count, it’s Billy in a landslide.”
To which I moved the Goal posts BACK and to the Middle of REALITY and what you would like it to be which is the LCS!
You moved the posts FIRST by your suggesting that the World Series is not the PROPER benchmark for SUCCESS!
Tried to make it the Playoffs and then got pushed back to the LCS!
Nite son try not to suck your thumb when you sleep as it will lead to bucked teeth and no dates for you when you grow up!
How many rings have the Yankees won in the last 11 years? 1? So are you saying their method of team management doesn’t work also?
I’m saying that in a lot of cases, winning a World Series is not the end all/be all of evaluating what a team has done. The A’s won lots of games with a minuscule payroll when nobody thought that it was possible for them to do so. How can what they did be looked at as a failure just because they didn’t win a World Series, when nobody even expected them to be competing in the first place?
Winning a World Series is winning a World Series. Period. The ultimate goal has been achieved. How you did it? I could not care any less.
Your statement is a microcosm of this whole moneyball saber thing – winning isn’t regarded as important.
Winning is important. Winning GAMES. The goal for every team isn’t World Series or bust because different teams are in different places in the spectrum. Is the Houston Astros goal in 2012 to win the World Series? Probably not, because with that team, they’re likely to fail spectacularly. They’re goal should be something more reasonable…develop some big league players, try to get to .500 and make decisions that can push them closer to winning in the near future.
Okay, i’ll go along with that. Then attempting to get to the post season should AT LEAST be your goal if you have the guns to work with and Alderson inherited a nucleus that could contend and he did NOTHING to try and compete. He could have with the budget he had but either chose not to or him and his two other GMs just did a lousy job of evaluating the talent that was available.
In other words they did not try and win.
One can say that about every GM that doesn’t make the post season.
saying it about a GM and actually thinking they did not attempt to try their best or were just lousy at evaluating talent is just one way to put it.
And no you can’t say that about every GM because all the circumstances are different. I’m most familiar with the Mets.
You’re just here enjoying being miserable and second guessing every thing they did in their history. Every day. You like being unhappy.
I am not miserable, I’m just sick and tired of the miserable results my team has every year.
Your the one that’s miserable. Never missing a chance to bash Alderson, Wright or sabermetrics or anyone that likes or is neutral toward them.
Only in your miserable little mind is a disenting opinion something to be afraid of.
What I guess I’ve come to terms with in life and maybe you have not yet Bayonne is that I have no control over anything that happens to the NY Mets. I am a fan and my job is to root for them or criticize if warranted.
Therefore if you ask me would I rather be a fan of a team who for 8 straight years averaged 93 wins a season and never made the World Series or would I rather be say an Astros fan over the last 8 years?
I’d take the A’s 8 years in a NY Minute.
But he only had 10 million to spend last offseason. There’s not a whole lot you can do for 10 million dollars when you’ve got a bunch of gaping holes in the roster (2 in the rotation, a bunch in the bullpen, the entire bench, 2nd base, catcher). He had a lot of holes to fill with little money. Sometimes you hit with players, sometimes you don’t. I’m not going to say they didn’t try to win. It’s just that in the situation he was put in with so much dead money on the books, the odds were incredibly stacked against him. Once Sandy came to realize that the team was not close to competing, he dealt Frankie to get out from under that albatross and he dealt Beltran to acquire a really good pitching prospect.
You’ve got to look towards the future sometimes. The 2011 Mets were decent but really flawed team…it seemed a little nuts to try to go all in with that team, especially considering money was so tight. It would’ve taken a couple of miracles to contend in 2011.
Excuses Excuses!
He didn’t have MONEY!!!
And if he did you wouldn’t let him to spend it ANYWAY moneyballer!
So Metsie..how do you build a good team without money and without a farm system?
Grace me with your intellectual wisdom *sarcasm*.
How would you do it? Sure couldn’t use MONEYBALL because MONEYBALL used a farm system as well!
I could do it WITH MONEY and no Farm system though couldn’t I?
Even Moneyball won’t work for your scenario!
You ALWAYS need a farm!
Its just my way you don’t have to let it go when it gets promoted because your too cheap to pay it!
He did not inherit a contending nucleous moron.Did you happen to notice that Johan was missing from the rotation? He inherited a mess with a bloated payroll and no number 1 or 2 starter.Contending nucleous give me a break.
Listen newbie,
He inherited Jose Reyes, Pagan, Ike Davis, Beltran, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Tejada/Turner, Thole/Paulino and a closer in K-Rod
That’s a VERY GOOD lineup to inherit.
And don’t forget this is before the season so there was still debate how good Bay would have done and before we knew there would be injuries so try..JUST TRY and use what’s left of your scrambled eggs for brains just once and put yourself BACK at the beginning of the season
Now if he had a smarter off season and spent a little more on healthy starting pitcher it could have been a different story.
He MOST CERTAINLY inherited a nucleus for which he could have contended with. You’re just reacting off the type of season they had including the injuries.
You said you’re over 40? Your baseball perception is absolutely HORRIFIC. You should meet up with Des in Sacramento and have a drink.
No Just a team capable of playing .519, .593, and .519 Baseball in May June and July!
Inherited Wright Reyes, Beltran, Rodriguez, Davis, Murphy, Turner, Tejada, and Duda. Not to mention Harvey, Familia, Mejia, Havens, Flores and a slew of kids waiting to come up!
What did Omar star off with huh?
Wright and reyes? Were they a contending team?
I’ll give you a break!
Sandy has ONE SEASON to rise to the playoffs to EQUAL what Omar did!
And even if he does he will still have had a better head start to it than Omar had!
Because Omar left him a pretty good Minor League system despite what you Baseball American Moneyballers would like to make it out to be!
Newbie? What kind of a name is that? What are you trying to out brit everyone now?
Yeah Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese and whoever you can get on the cheap for 2 spots in the rotation is real solid. Yeah right. Rebuild the whole pen, settle 2B, get a catcher, round out the bench, get some rotation and bullpen depth in AAA.
Castillo, Perez, Beltran coming off injury and possibly changing position And Bay? Obviously you weren’t watching him very closely in 2010.
Real solid nucleus.
Spend a little more? How about if the prior GM had spent a little less maybe we would have won a couple more games when we were in a race.
It’s incredible how blaming the past is in every one of t agee’s responses. The guy is a nut.
The guy is as honest as a prison stool pidgeon.
The guy is SO unfair in every single one of his critiques it’s hard to believe that he is an actual functioning human being with a roof over his head
And I suppose the competition in the NL East will be as decrepit in 2012 as they were in 2006 right?
Philly won’t get over .500 for good until mid August. Altanta won’t be over .500 after June 1st and Washington and Florida never will right?
What a complete bunch of BS.
LOL.
buffoon is STILL blaming Wright for single handidly losing an entire season three seasons ago and complaining about someone else re visiting the past.
What a mutton head.
“Spend a little more? How about if the prior GM had spent a little less maybe we would have won a couple more games when we were in a race.”
Yes because we all know it is just so damn logical that the LESS you spend the MORE you win right Tag?
Isn’t that what Oakland proved?
Let me ask you something Why don’t they just get guys who are FREE and win every WS in creation since you believe that is true?
You can’t spend less than ZERO and if spending less means winning MORE then no one could possibly beat that Bar League team you put together for the cost of Advertising!
No Mention if Davis or Murphy I see!
Or tejada ot Turner!
I know you don’t value them but isn’t it the GMs job to know they would be able to help us win at a .593 clip?
“And I suppose the competition in the NL East will be as decrepit in 2012 as they were in 2006 right?” Excuse me but I remember someone saying that the Braves and Phillies have been doing things right and used that time period as proof if it!
You mean to tell us now they were bad and were NOT as good as your previous posts would suggest?
FLIP…FLOP!
Werth cost a lot less than Alou, about 7 times less and played a hell of a lot more than Moises did.
Sometimes less is actually more Metsie.
I guess your right though we could have wound up with Dice K, Jeff Weaver, Zito, Soriano.
No flip flop here. The braves weren’t very good that year. First year in the last 12 they didn’t go the playoffs. First time under .500 in fifteen years. No disgrace there.
Phils were still building, Nat’s were basically an expansion team and the Marlins just trying to tread water.
The entire NL East was bad other than us. In fact the entire NL was bad except for us. No team other than the Mets won as many as 90 games in 2006. Usually there are three or four teams that win 90 or more.
We were the fastest horse in a slow race. The following year we didn’t as much get worse as other teams got better but the fact remains that we had the road paved for us in 2006.
Not expecting the same for us in 2012.
yeah because Werth sucked until he had all those guys from Phillie to carry him!
Have you seen what he costs now and has done lately?
So t agee says the Mets won in 2006 because the rest of the league was bad.
Let that sink in folks.
And like Metsie said, if the Phils and Braves have been doing things so great all the time than why excuse them for 2006.
But I bet t agee has an excuse already built in for that. And his excuses consist mainly of pointing fingers at somebody elses mistakes for justification.
t agee must have had a lot of ideas go wrong in his life to exhibit this kind of mind set. Blaming others for the sole purpose of justification.
We’re talking 2007 and he’s still on the field a lot more than Alou is.
i wonder if t agee came out of the womb thinking the grass is always greener on the other side whether there is any justification for it or not.
and you know he’ll have the last word. He always does. Sounds like a loser to me.
buffoon can’t talk baseball all he can do in insult people so they’ll leave the website.
What a little baby chimp.
Hey TAG did it ever occurr to you that the reason why the Braves weren’t as good as the USUALLY were in 2006 was because we beat them 11-7 that year where they used to just wipe the floor with us?
Is Bayonne as stupid as the stuff he writes? He forms an opinion before he understands what is written and then he irrationally repeats his nonsense endlessly. He confuses obstinacy with insight. Yes he shows an EQ of 50 and an IQ of 60. He is still trying to refute a NY Times article written in 2010 by G. Vecsey with something Jerry Manual said in 2007. Frankly, he makes being an underachiever his badge of honor. In Australia they would call him a NO HOPER.
Newbie? No,My baseball perception is horrific?This coming from a guy who only knows of the RBI.Your comments about this team and the sport are comical.You can’t read stats so you knock them.You couldn’t put together a little league team so go back to cleaning toilets at Grand Central Station.
The lineup you just posted is far from a contending team.Only a moron would think it was.Thank God the GM has a functional brain and realized the team was mediocre at best and didnt add any albatross contracts to an already deep pile of sheet Omar left.
That Lineup is an IF lineup.A team full of IFS rarely if ever contends.This team actually played over it’s head offensively for much of the season.If Beltran was healthy,If Bay rebounds,If Reyes could stay on the field,If Wright was more consistent,If they get anything from the C position,If Murphy could even play a position,If Pagan was for real,If Ike Davis could imprve on his rookie season.
This is the same lineup that was horrific last season and you looked at this team and said this is a contending lineup? This same lineup that couldn’t score a run in the 2nd half last season and then take that lineup and subtract Johan from the rotation.That’s a contending nucleous? Also remember no pitcher has EVER fully recovered from that injury and returned to their previous form.The ones who have usually aren’t half as good and develope other shoulder injuries but thats way above your station.
I really get a kick outta how you call Agee a 2nd guessing jackass yet that is all you do with Aldersons 1st offseason,2nd guess.You refuse to admit the Wilpons put payroll constraints on him and think he should’ve made better decisions but you never say who would’ve been the better options that fit within the budget.Then you say on another thread that you did come up with a list but I have to get off my ass and find it and after I find it you say that it’s Vinny B’s list and that I twisted everything around.Like I said go back to cleaning toilets.
@ Metsie You do know the Season also includes April,August and September.I noticed how you forgot to add in those winning percentages.
Again that is a mediocre team and those minor leaguers,Harvey,Havens,Familia haven’t played a day in MLB so how does tat help him on 2011.What did Omar get left with.How about 2 emerging stars a couple of decent pitchers to work with,Cliff Floyd,Mike Cameron and boatloads of money to work with.52 million for Pedro,119 million for Beltran another 52 million dollar offer to Delgado who took Floridas money instead and an offer to Magglio Ordonez who went to Detroit instead.Did Alderson have that much money to work with? Are you as clueless as Bayonne,Omar fan and Alex 68 who try and compare what Omar started out with and Alderson started out with? In 6 drafts and 6 years of signing IFA’s where is the star player that omar the draft guru as Omar Fan has called him provided for our team.Where is that impact bat or that impact pitcher from 6 drafts and 6 years of signing IFA’s.Wheres the next Jose Reyes or Edgardo Alfonzo? Where is our Ryan Braun or Tim Lincecum?What is coming from our farm system except a bunch of LF/1B type players.All bat no glove or vice versa.Where is our Robby Cano or Joey Votto.Where is our next star player?I’d settle for another David Wright even if the new one can’t hit in the clutch either.Omar has given us nothing yet.
By the way,I’m not a moneyballer.I don’t want the Mets to be a moneyball team.I want the GM to spend money only I don’t want him to go out and sign 40 year old injury prone LF’ers alla Moises Alou.I want Matt Kemp next offseason.Thats when you break out the check book.I fuggin hate moneyball.Just because I dont agree with you or Bayonne doesn’t mean I’m a moneyball advocate.I’m not.
His brain is fried.
What else could you expect from someone who just had to go out and buy a Stoner jersey from the Team Store as a novelty piece.
Again lets lower the bar so I can call myself a success!
Well different teams are in different places in the spectrum
Tell us all something…
It’s been 15 years WHAT SPECTRUM IS OAKLAND IN RIGHT NOW?
Just a few MORE years away from Moneyball doing what you say it does?
Just 15 more years band they will be in the SPECTRUM that says OK we SUCCEEDED not just for our SPECTRUM but as far as ALL OF BASEBALL is concerned?
If MONEYBALL means it takes 15 years to win a WS I think everyone on the planet smarter than you will say I PASS!
Nobody’s talking about the 2011 freaking Oakland A’s!!!!! NOBODY’S TALKING ABOUT MONEYBALL!
You’re so freakin’ obsessed with moneyball.
Your not talking about anything just trying to turn a failure into something that looks successful!
Hey Look I got a C! Better than an F isn’t it?
I must be good and successful!
You obviously cannot read because I said nothing about Moneyball. You’re obviously a closet moneyball fanatic.
Yeah we noticed! Not one mention of MONEYBALL in a thread ABOUT MONEYBALL all day long!
Just your usual offtopic and teenaged tripe!
Wait let me take that back I should insult all teenagers by associating them with you!
I really don’t think as Met Fans we should be belittling anyone else’s accomplishments.
Five consecutive Division titles with the leagues smallest (?) payroll is not an insignificant achievement. It’s not the grand payoff but it’s not bad.
We’ve only won five Divisions in total over fifty years and have won just one in the last 24, and that’s with outspending all the other teams in the League over that period.
A little credit where credit is due.
so now you’re out here telling people you were the first to recognize Tejada’s talent? Really?
Even I don’t know if i was the actual first but I certainly was among the most confident and outspoken about it. Just ask Des when he comes back from Sacramento.
More After-The-Fact bandwagon climbing I suppose.
Absolutely…I think we’re saying the same thing here. Those A’s teams made the playoffs 5 times, which is an excellent accomplishment considering nobody thought they had a shot to do that with their payroll. Winning the World Series is not the only measurement of a successful season. Those were great teams…unfortunately they fell short because short series tend to be a crapshoot in the playoffs. Any team can beat any other team in a short series in baseball…it’s the way it is.
Yeah cutting off your legs and living/crawling a mile must be a successful endeavor too considering the situation you put yourself in no one should have expected you to live and crawl a mile!
You’re a conspiracy theorist if you believe that the A’s willingly cut their payroll. Were you wearing your tin foil hat when you wrote that comment?
And your an idiot that doesn’t see that they decided to do it not the MLB!
Here is an EASY Question maybe you won’t avoid…
If they didn’t WILLINGLY cut their payroll who made them do it?
And don’t say the owners because the owners are as much the QAKLAND A’s as Beane is!
Yes, the owners cut payroll because they WERE NEW OWNERS and they didn’t want to spend money. The owners provide the money to the GM. It’s not the other way around. Alderson has no control of the money. It’s the owners of the team who decide how much money is spent.
And there…didn’t avoid your question. I answered it.
Yes you DID you answered and PROVED my point!
The OAKLAND A’s CUT SALARY and came up with MONEYBALL of theior OWN ACCORD, Their OWN decision!
Beane did the best he could but it failed!
Since we don’t HAVE TO cut salary we have no need for it here!
No making the Playoffs is right?
Because 25% of the league accomplishes that only 3% actually wins a WS!
What you REALLY MEAN is I can’t make my case by using what is the TRUE SUCCESSFUL Season so I’m going to lower the bar to make it LOOK like a success!
I bet you tried to tell your parents that getting an A isn’t a C is the TRUE barometer of Success!
Here is the SUCCESS table for grades!
WS WIN A
WS Appearance A-
LCS WIN B
LCS Appearance B-
LDS WIN C
LDS LOSE C-
WILDCARD D
“Hey Mom I got a C- in MATH 4 years in a row! Look at what a Success I am!
“Oh I got a B- one year too! I must be GREAT!”
sorry meant to delete the LCS win grade
Interesting…I’ve never seen that success table. I’m sure you didn’t completely make it up out of thin air, though. *sarcasm*
There’s no grading system in baseball, so your little example doesn’t work. Each team has different goals because they’re in different places in the spectrum. The 2012 Houston Astros goal isn’t to win the World Series because if it was, they’d be crazy. They’re more likely to lose 100 games than win the WS. They have a different goal than say the Yankees or the Philllies. Doesn’t mean they’re losers…it just means that they’re realistic in their views.
There most certainly IS a grading system!
WINNERS of the WORLD SERIES! (SUCCESS)
And everyone else! (FAILURES!)
No there isn’t.
I’ll bet that took at least two hours for you to come up with!
King of the I Know You Are but What am I posts!
ROFLMAO Go to bed kid it’s way past your bedtime!
How old are you again? You keep avoiding the issue I wonder why?
Or we can do it like you and say the Yankees won 3 in 4 years. You know what I mean?
Like the way you take the window of time that made the A’s look so good and saying they “went to the postseason 5 out of 7 years”. You could have said 5 out of 17 years but only got past the ALDS once and then lost.
Ya know??
You are the master of manipulation and a mountain of misinformation. I bow to your devilishness.
4, B, or D to 161st Street or the MetroNorth Harlem Line to 161st St if you find it more convenient. If you are driving, take I-87, the Major Deegan, to exit 5.
enjoy.
Thats really all you have to offer isn’t it?
I guess limited minds must stick to limited responses…
otherwise the brain overloads!
Hey, you Yankee fanboys seem to be confused. I’m just trying to help out.
Yeah like a blind man helping someone with healthy eyes to see better!
You are just an idiot with a keyboard!
You KNOW and offer NOTHING!
“How many rings have the Yankees won in the last 11 years”
ANSWER 2!
Go watch the Yankees…you have the perfect Yankee fan mentality.
Go watch the A’s you love what they do and you are exactly the type of fan they need who is dumb enough to sit through and PAY to see the crap they put on the field in the name of saving money!
Hmm lets compare…Mets went to a WS in 2000…
How many did Oakland go to? ZERO!
Neither won a ring, BOTH Failed…
One actually had a shot at one though and it wasn’t the moneyballer!
You want to lower the bar further so you can make a point?OK LETS GO!
How many League Championships did each appear in the last 20 years?
Oakland 2 Mets 3
Funny in the 20 Year game the Mets don’t need to play SUCCESS BAR LIMBO to score a win over the A’s!
And I find it quite typical that you use a 20 Year sample when Omar was only the GM for 5 years!
And in those 5 years he went to one NLCS (Oakland NONE!) and did it in year TWO of his build!
You fail.
Oh thats your PROOF?
ROFLMAO!
No wonder you think the guys at AA are smart!
you probably think DOORKNOBS are smart to if that the best response you could come up with!
If you think you’re smarter than them, why don’t you go over there right now and write a post and see how they react to it?
Why so they can avoid posting proof over there as well?
Why not go ask them for the proof you do not seem to have and bring it over here!
You’re scared. You’re a chicken. Go do it…I dare you.
Why need some help do you? Feel inadequate to face me here?
WHIMP!
I been there stupid or didn’t you get that when I said I read over there!
Let them come here!
They can’t be any worse than you are!
WHIMP. CHICKEN. Go type your post over there if you’re really a man. Don’t call me names just because you’re being a little child over this. Do it or shut your mouth.
I’m standing MY ground!
Let your bully friends come here if they are so damn tough!
I will have a talk to JoeD about your presence here!
By the way, you should look over the AL West again…the Angels won the Wild Card with 99 wins in 2002, while the Mariners finished in 3rd place with 93 wins.
“You’re telling me that a practice used in the early 2000′s when several teams were ignoring certain types of players is not currently used anymore.”
Yeah which part led you to think I said that in anyway shape or form?
Please quote!
Or is this just an attempt to get OFF TOPIC so the conversation isn’t about how DUMB limiting your OPTIONs, IGNORING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS (QUALITY) in favor of PRICE, and how getting VALUE does not equal SUCCESS in the MLB as success in the MLB is judged by WS chapionships not how THRIFTY you are?
The book is mostly about Statistical analysis!
No one I know of has a real problem with that part of the book!
But the STATISTICAL ANALYSIS is ALL FOR NAUGHT because in order to find CHEAP you have to IGNORE all the players who were BETTER merely because they cost more or ALLOW what you DID FIND as a value because you refused to pay more than you originally did to keep them!
Ahhh I see where you got that from now…But sad to say that was the editor who said that not me! LOL
I hinted that using OBP came up with the right answer at the time, But not because the league has changed and players are different but merely because OBP WAS undervalued at the time!
And by using Sabers to find the GOOD LIST you would still be favoring OBP today regardless of it actually being the UNDERVALUED STAT merely because the Sabermetrics favor them due to thier CONSTRUCT!
So I will retract my request for a quote, and let you respond to what I ACTUALLY tried to say (stated above) only not well enough for Joe to translate properly!
i dunno if oakland money issues were “self-imposed”. they are not playing in the biggest baseball market in the world like the yankees.
They had no problem spending like drunken sailors when Alderson was there, and Sandman high-tailed it outta there when the well ran dry. He’s a genius, you know.
Because umm…the owner died and they had new ownership in the mid-90′s.
Can we please be a little more biased? I’m not seeing enough obvious bias around here. *sarcasm*
Haas dies at the end of the 1995 season. Alderson left 3 years later. Nor exactly a fast escape.
Ummm I can’t tell if that is sarcasm but Sandy Alderson didn’t kill Walter Haas lol.
That is why the budget changed. Haas died in 95.
Even if it was sarcasm, I’m sure somebody out there would believe you
Ok Martin WHO imposed them?
The MLB?
The MLBPA?
The President of the US?
An Act of Congress?
Perhaps Al Qaeda?
Thats it! It was a TERRORIST plot that forced them to cut payroll to life support proportions and let all that CHEAP TALENT they DID manage to find go so they could get more picks and do it all over again….Only problem is the picks they got did not do it all over again!
You do realze that Oakland is accross the bridge from San Francisco right?
Small Market really?
Two big Cities right next to each other?
Do the Raiders have problems drawing fans too?
you realize how incredibly dumb this entire response to Martin is?
The Kansas City Chiefs draw just fine in NFL does that mean the Royals are not a small market now?
Have you ever been to both San Fran and Oakland? If so, you’d understand how incredibly dumb the comparison of the two are. If not, have you ever seen Who Framed Roger Rabbit?
You know when Eddie Valiant is driving in the “real world” and its all dirty and somber and then he enters toon town and everything is nice, clean and happy? That’s the drive from Oakland to San Fran. Full House didn’t take place in Oakland for a reason.
I like how you’re refuting facts though. After Haas died the team was bought by 2 men who made their living through real estate, one of whom was past his 70th birthday when he bought it. They cut the budget because they were trying to make $. It’s not a hidden secret they cut the budget.
They also play in 1 of the worst stadiums in the sport which opened in 1966.
Please don’t try to come here and say the Oakland A’s since 1995 were not a small market team. Prior to the economic boom and free agency boom there wasn’t a big distinction between small market and big market. There is now, and denying Oakland is small market is ridiculous.
Sorry, but comparing Oakland to SF reminded me of this from one of the great philosophers of our time.
a little NSFW
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfaV7tkLl60
haha that’s a good one too. I believe the song was meant to be “If you’re going to Oakland be sure to wear some…” and then the song writer got mugged and so he switched the lyrics.
Seriously the second Metsie tried to argue against Oakland being a small market franchise and used the Raiders, and the Bay Bridge as his basis for proof is the second I stopped participating in this debate because I had to pee.
Hey JESSEP! I know you wont mention it because your kind is all alike, but you do know the Mets finished with a better record than the A’s dont you?
And you do know my boy Dillon Gee won more games than your boy Trevor Cahill and his 1.465 WHIP dont you?
Of course you probably forgot our little bet in the chat room during Spring Training huh?
Yeah, like I said I know your type. I cant wait to count all of Cahill’s Cy Young votes next month, LMAO.
For someone you spends all of his comments ripping readers and writers here, you sure are a jackass when it comes to personal accountability for the outlandish things you say, lol.
Please don’t ever judge pitchers by win/loss record ever again, for the sake of my health.
Oh yes we will,
Good pitchers give their team a better chance to win, bad pitchers give their teams a better chance to lose. Here’s some records:
19-8
10-7
15-9
25-3
15-10
here’s some more:
3-10
9-11
8-15
4-12
If I knew nothing else i’d take my chances with the first group…unless of course this was set up as a trick question and the first group was all bad to marginal pitchers during their best years and the 2nd group is great pitchers during a bad year.
I just love winning and anything that has to do with winning. Sorry.
Have fun with 2003 and 2006 Steve Trachsel. I’ll go with 1987 Nolan Ryan.
You probably thought that King Felix was a bumb last year as well. You know, because he didn’t have a lot of wins.
Gee Capuano and Niese all had more wins than Dickey this year. Were they all that much better than him?
Was he only 1 win better than Mike Pelfrey?
So you’re saying that RA Dickey is a bad pitcher?
How dare you!
Ah the infamous put words in ones mouth to delfect the conversation into a different direction because he might have had a point!
Hey…that’s what he’s implying. I think BMF is a big boy. He can defend himself without your help, Metsie. Now why don’t you go and rant about Moneyball again.
Grow up son!
How old ARE you?
Tell us oh Wise and Logical Math professor that uses NO LOGIC and has NO MATH to prove it?
Point you seem to want to sidestep…
Build a good team and they come!
Don’t even TRY to build a good one, charge the SAME for the tickets or MORE, but actually spend less gets you attendance that makes you LOOK like a small market!
Small Markets may not spend as much as BIG market teams do. But their market does not LIMIT their ability to draw provided the people who would go actually believe there is a chance of seeing them win!
There are TWO WHOLE CITIES seperated by a bridge!
It’s a long bridge granted one of the longest in existence but they have PLENTY of people to draw from!
And the truth of the matter here is I consider this whole line of conversation just a ploy to CIRCLE JERK away from the PHILOSOPHY because it DOES NOT APPLY HERE!!!
We are NOT a SMALL MARKET TEAM!
Yet you still want to do it don’t you?
Denver has a population of 467K in 1996 Oakland 372
Rockies drew 3.89 Mil in Attendance!
Oakland drew 1.14 Mil
90K more people in Denver but almost 3 times the attendance
Market to blame?
Atlanta had 394 in 96 drew 2.9 Mil
They don’t seem to need to limit themselves with Moneyball do they?
SELF IMPOSED!
By the way for the purposes of Schooling WHO…the above is an example of POSTING PROOF of the wrong statements people make!
Not just saying YOUR WRONG DEAL WITH IT!
Getting a geek to admit they’re wrong is like pulling teeth. Lies, distortion, changing topics, twisting and snark is all you’ll get out of those snobs.
He’s not even a geek Maniac just a GOON…
I have noted at least 100 posts in coments from not one has ever included a proof of concept!
He even calculates RBI by starting with RS and then subtracting things as opposed to just looking in the RBI column!
He thinks the Red Sox are a moneyball team because they hired Bill James
And that by not showing proof he has proved something!
Thats more GOON than GEEK!
A Geek will at least overcompliacte a wrong answer!
Metsie guaranteed JESSE-PEE is working on a retaliatory piece to yours. That’s how he rolls. He doesnt like this whole Fan Post business. lol
LOL you know I actually Welcome Jessup doing a counter piece.
While we disagree on philosophy he is hardly the same BAD POST KEYBOARD BULLY carp we get from Donal and Who!
He will at least TRY to make an argument!
For awhile until he gets caught with bad facts!
LOL
Weren’t the Rockies a new team in a brand new stadium in 1996? Why, yes they were.
What were the A’s drawing up to that point? ie Were they getting returns for their big spending when they were spending?
Whats the difference SAME SMALL MARKET isn’t it?
You don’t know how a brand new stadium in a new amrket my affect attendance? Really?
And you don’t know that no matter how NICE your new stadium is building it does not increase your population at all?
Bottom line is they drew 2 MIl with roughly the same population.
And your point is moot anyway…Colorade drew 2.9 mil last year too!
Was it ALSO a new Stadium?
Oakland was the lowest draw!
I wonder why?
could it be they are still trying to recover their fanbase after the GREAT EXPERIMENT?
Hold on…so let me get this straight:
You’re saying that the Denver area has more people than the Oakland area and the Rockies draw higher attendance than A’s?
Sorry, but DUH! Of course they’re going to draw more people, not to mention that the A’s lose attendance because THE GIANTS ARE RIGHT ACROSS THE BAY while the Rockies are in the middle of nowhere.
Nice job. *sarcasm*
Not to mention the A’s play in a crap stadium while the Rockies were still a new team with a brand new stadium.
yeah thats a good excuse!
Umm…that’s not an excuse, that’s called a VARIABLE.
No a variable is part of an EQUATION something you have never showed or could even comprehend because they don’t teach algebra in kindergarten just fingerpainting!
you really are an idiot, what are you like 12?
Sorry…i guess you don’t subscribe to logic and numbers, right?
Sure we do, We use them and you don’t!
SO tell me slappy what does ANY of this SMALL MARKET crap have to do with NYC anyway? Where is the LOGIC for even talking about SMALL MARKET in NYC?
Right, my clients come to me for financial advice and estate planning for my good looks.
i think Who is some dopey kid i wouldn’t even waste my time.
Instead of telling me why I’m wrong, you just put me down and call me a 12 year old?
Got it…you’ve got nothing. Go back under your bridge, troll.
Yeah how do you like your own handiwork being used on you?
Troll? lol Until Alderson became GM I never saw you, donal, joe smith, martin on this site. It’s like you love the GM not the team. I been commenting here since it was a myspace site. All you trolls showed up this year and took the great debates we used to have into the toilet. In fact when this site posted their help wanted ad for saberheads, me and Bayonne predicted all you AA trolls would infest these threads like malaria.
Martin has been around…I will vouch for him…Donal too!
But I would not put it past him to post as WHO and or Joe Smith because he is usually outnumbered and they both resort to insulting posters as opposed to any meaningful debate with them!
If they are NOT the same guy they might as well be!
Keep dreaming…I don’t have the time to post under two names.
yes Diaper changes can be time consuming…You should have your mother change yours for you!
Aww so your opinion is more valid because you discovered this site before I did? That makes a lot of sense (actually, no it doesn’t).
No his opinion is more Valid because at least he makes an argument not just taunt people like the 3 year old!
oh, and the Braves were the defending WS champs in 1996. Kind of an easy draw right there.
Yeah cause they used that great LETS NOT SPEND BECAUSE WE ARE A SMALL MARKET idea you love so much!
I thought it would be good to review the OPPOSITION to what I said!
Note none of it actually disputed what I said was the POINT of using moneyball except one and then he went onto say how it’s about saving money!
Here are the posts:
1 – INSULT-(Donal what did you expect!)
2 – Any – Obviously they should just have picked guys based on RBIs.-Nothing about what I wrote!
3 – I odn’t think it (moneyball) had anything to do with spending less as some kind of philosophy, or as an end goal rather, it is about getting the most value for the payroll you can spend. IOW, better bang for your buck, – (IE Lets save MONEY by going for guys with the same stats and lower salary basicically saying it isn’t about spending less, rather its about spending less!)
4 – I don’t really understand this to be honest. (Jessup) Moneyball isn’t relevant anymore (but lets do it anyway and not sign Reyes! as his previous pieces have suggested!)
5 – i dunno if oakland money issues were “self-imposed”. (Not really applicable to anything I said and offerred no other IMPOSER to their Salary structure! Owner, GM Whoever it was was involved in the Oakland franchise! And for whatever reason it was IMPOSED it really doesn’t change the nature of what I said Moneyball does! And since we live in NYC there is no MARKET reason to IMPOSE it either!
Seems to be little problem with my description of Moneyball…
But every attempt to RUN FROM IT while suggesting the same END GOAL be used to build the Mets!
DON’T SPEND!
And the only way to NOT spend is to play MONEYBALL!
Yet they all claim that is not their goal!
Sorry but I wasn’t born yesterday!
“I don’t really understand this to be honest.”
Just keep saying that over and over. It will be some refreshing honesty from you.
Unfortunatly for you it was Jessup that said that!
Not ME!
Bye Metsie…it’s a lot of fun beating up on you. Enjoy not using facts or logic and getting laughed at by people who are smarter than you. Go find another conspiracy theory for yourself.
I’ll be the man here and walk away unlike you, you petulant child.
Good Riddens, don’t let the door hit you the butt on the way out!
Is that your mom I hear calling you?
Time for strained peas before bedtime?
strained peas before bedtime? what kind of a childhood did you have?
Well he seems like the abused type!
LOL
He was raised by moneyballers who thought strained peas provided good value compared to milk and cookies.
I look at Moneyball ia an approach, one of several approaches. Today, it’s precepts could be thought of as a tool, that can be used in certain situations. To declare it dead, I think is an all-or-nothing over-simplification mentality, like you either have to do it one way or the other, which I don’t think is appropriate. But primarily I think you want the draft and international scouting to be the mainstays that keep you competitive year in and year out and then supplement with key trades and free agent signings at the right time.
But whenever somebody brings up the Yankees as an example of why teams should take the high spending approach, I feel compelled. What I think many may not realize is just how much of a revenue advantage the Yankees have over any other team in the game. The Yankees may have 3-4 very expensive contracts on their team that are playing well, but they may also have 3-4 very expensive contracts on their team that are awful contracts. No other team in the game could carry that on their payroll. When other teams, even other large market teams, get 2-3 big contracts that are not performing well it handcuffs them from spending any more. But the Yankees have no such handicap they can just go out and sign 2-3 more big contracts. So it’s not so much that the Yankees “spending approach” is working out. In fact if 1/2 their large contracts are working out and 1/2 are not, then it’s not really working out. But because they can have so many of those large contracts, enough work out to keep them contenders.
The other thing to consider is that in relationship to their total revenue, the Yankees are NOT a big spending club. If you ranked all the teams in the game in terms of percentage of their total revenue put into player salaries, I would bet the Yankees are middle of the pack or lower among all the teams in the game. That’s how large their revenue advantage is. So for the Yankees, relative to their revenue, and relative to the percentage of revenue other teams spend on players, they not even “high spending”.
Well Jim is Moneyball the approach or is the approach SABERMETRIC?
If you mean the approach in regards to finding the undervalued metric it still really isn’t moneyball that finds it. It is the Sabermetrics that identifies it by first searching out the good players and trying to find what is common and not VALUED but there in lesser known and salaried players.
Moneyball has no method other than Sabers to find the undervalued stat and the players associated with it!
In the case of oakland they found an undervalued stat because Sabers were still new and not many people knew about them. No one listed OBP WAR nor any of those stats we now associate with Sabers. So it was pretty damn easy to find a stat no one even knew about.
That same approach is probably true for ALL statistical analysis that has ever been done!
No one skips over a guy with the same numbers who costs less!
Two players whose stats are the same, the cheaper will always be desirable, But that cheaper may only be 2 mil of a 10-12 mil salary! It’s still VALUE but is that really what Oakland did?
Not really!
So they had the right idea but did not actually implement it the way they should have!
They skipped players their APPROACH said were BUYS all because they would command a high Salary! They let players they found with that approach go because they refused to keep them based on money!
In the cases where the Yankees being used it is not to suggest BIG SPENDING is the way to go it is merely used as an example to show those who are under the false belief that spending LESS leads to more success! It CAN provided your saving up for that rainy day in the way the Phillies have. But that is a long long road to take.
If we were in Atlanta or Philadelphia (one team towns) we might get away with that the way they did!
But this is NY!
SAVING money is not in the NY Blood! Hell we are where Wall Street lives!
And while it might make for a good decade of dominance if we lose for 12 years and build from scratch to save Wilpon money if tried here Sandy won’t make it past 2013!
So if the APPROACH is to SAVE money thats fine but if the approach is to simply have LOW SALARY (which is what has been suggested by so many of the Moneyballers who post here) then not only will it fail to succeed but it will only lead to a backlash once Sandy gets booted RIGHT BACK to what all those moneyballers hated about Omar!
Because for all the success people think Oakland had playing moneyball!
The Yankees have FAR SURPASSED!
Going on 15 years of ANNUAL PLAYOFF CONTENTION!
And they did it by doing the opposite of Oakland!
They did by not shying away from paying the best baseball players available!
And they have not lost money despite having the highest payroll in baseball PLUS the Luxury tax!
No Attendance issues!
No profit losing season!
No sub .500 seasons!
Just winning and spending to stay there! They haven’t had a sub .500 season since 1992!
I would not suggest we do that!
But you have to admit it sure has been a far better approach than what Oakland came up with!
And since we are in NY it makes more sense to do what they do than do what Oakland did!
But to LIMIT our choices based on MONEY is the path to failure!
Sure we might get a few false hope seasons…But never the WS glory!
And I would rather win one WS every 5 years than make the playoffs 5 straight years and then lose before I get to the LCS each time!
The key paragraph in your article as I read it is:
“MONEYBALL no matter what methodology used to arrive at the goal is about NOT SPENDING MONEY or Spending as little as possible. The REASON for implementing it is varied:
* Not having the money to spend due to low fan attendance and revenues.
* Cheap Ownership who are more interested in profit than wins and force the GM to shop at Kmart.
* Blind stupidity that convinces you that minimizing your player options translates to more success. I call this the “penny wise, pound foolish” syndrome!”
There is a huge difference between the first two reasons and the third. In the two former cases, you have a GM who has a limited budget (as all GM’s do, only the size of the budget differs) and in the third case a conviction that less is more.
All, or at least nearly all, advocates of Moneyball appreciate Moneyball from the perspective of the two former cases. A GM should maximize value for his budget. I think very very few actually thinks that the less you spend the better the results. As you wrote yourself in a post above: “Two players whose stats are the same, the cheaper will always be desirable.”
After establishing what a GM should get is maximum value, comes the question of how to determine value – which is a whole other debate (OBP vs. AVG etc.)
I don’t think we will reach an agreement since you claim the A’s philosophy were that they didn’t want to spend money, I’d say that they couldn’t – since they didn’t have the money to spend.
So, what does Moneyball mean today? It teaches us that you can, by being more informed than your competitors make better decisions and thus win even if you can’t afford to spend as much as your competitors. As much as I want the Mets to resign Reyes, there is a limit where it is wise, where that limit is, is thankfully not my job to decide, but rather Sandy Alderson’s.
“All, or at least nearly all, advocates of Moneyball appreciate Moneyball from the perspective of the two former cases. A GM should maximize value for his budget.”
Well Swede, My piece is written in response to pieces posted here that seem to suggest different!
Reyes would fit into our projected 110 mil budget, yet they still say signing him will stop us from being successful.
So lets talk about VALUE for a minute?
What is VALUE?
Is it merely the price per production?
Is that the value? Does doing it cheaply get you a 2 game handicap into the Playoffs?
Isn’t value as much about HOW MUCH HE CONTRIBUTES to your team winning?
Did you really get Value if you took the 2Mil per year guy who did well in what you decided was the UNDERVALUED STAT over the 10 Mil per guy who was good in a lot more stats than just the undervalued one?
Sure he has a higher OBP (lets say for example sake) but the guy you passed on had 100 RBI, a .300 BA and a SLG of .450!
Did you get value? Did you even get a 5th of the contribution you might have gotten if you just paid the piper?
And It would appear you misinterpreted the phrase penny wise pound foolish. It was not the British Pound we are talking about.
In this case it is saying: “Overcareful about trivial things (MONEY) and undercareful about important ones (WINNING BALLGAMES!)”.
By making the goal about HOW MUCH SPENT you REPLACE the goal of Winning Baseball games!
Some teams HAVE to do this at times, the NY METS are not one of them!
There are no Market forces that COMPEL them to play moneyball!
Sabermetrics can do everything you believe MONEYBALL does! Because Moneyball when all is said and done is nothing more than Sabermetrics with budget contraints!
It is those Budget constraints that are the Achillies Heel of the philosophy!
Because that stops you from going after the 20 Million dollar player who IS worth the money when he is available! That doesn’t happen every year!
And if you close those option off merely based on money you will not be able to keep up with those teams that did NOT limit themselves to only buying players who make under a certain amount!
Like the Yankees…but even more like….the RED SOX!
They used Sabers, They paid money for who they thought would help them win games! And they did not handcuff themselves by limiting their acquired performance in favor of MONEY!
“Because Moneyball when all is said and done is nothing more than Sabermetrics with budget contraints!”
Exactly!
However, I don’t think the A’s in the Moneyball era traded wins for money spent – they wanted to win but had budget constraints (at least not Beane et al, maybe the owners rather saved than won, but that’s not moneyball – it’s just greed).
Value is relative, I’d say it’s the players output relative to his cost. Since different clubs has different budget contraints, cost is also relative. $20 millions is much more for, say, the Royals than the Yankees.
As for the Red Sox example – the spent the money because they could. If the A’s could have, or if the Mets could, spend the same amounts they should and would.
When it comes to Reyes, I think a lot of people are happy to sign him for $20 million for the next season, but a sx or seven year contract for $20 million a year can hurt the team since it is very unlikely his preformances at that age will match his price.
First off Swede- THANK YOU for actually discussing as opposed to what has gone on elsewhere in this thread!
Did they trade wins from the start? You could say they did not!
But they did trade them AFTER they got the wins and continued to let the good players they found go instead of keeping them and then trying to find even more value to complement them and take it further!
One thing to build a good team with little money but after doing so why would you let all that hard work leave and set you back again?
They won a lot of games but never enough to win the WS and if they had they might have dug themselves OUT of the attendance hole that forced them to work that hard in the first place!
It is commendable to do a good job under difficult situations.
But once done the situation should not be difficult anymore to remove the limitations!
This was the fatal flaw of Moneyball!
Yes they did a good job of building the team but failed to maintain it either because they thought they were smarter than they were and could repeat their past success or wrongly concluded that their MONEYBALL SYSTEM was the key when other factors probably were more important to that success, Such as losing a lot (under .500 baseball between the years of 1993 and 1998) that allowed them to get better players in the draft due to higher draft placement that were cheap!
It all fell apart after the first 4 playoff appearances because they no longer had the draft placement to get to the top talent that saved them the money the first time around!
At the time it may have looked like the SYSTEM was working.
But I would suggest it wasn’t the system that did it (it helped for sure in evaluating players) but the system itself could not WORK without that ability to get the best kids in the draft and without that they needed to keep the good kids they already had because it was impossible for the SYSTEM to repeat what it did before!
The CONDITIONS changed and the system was invalid once they did!
They should have recognized the difference in situation but their EGO in thinking how great their system was got in the way!
I guess we just have different takes on the reasons for the A’s actions after their first round of success.
I do however belive you emphasize too heavy on a WS-title to measue success. For sure, a title is the goal of every team but the probability that a worse team will win a five or seven game series over a better team is quite big compared to the probability that the worse team will finish ahead of a “better” team after 162 games. Thus is regular season records a much better indicator a teams’ quality than how they fared in the play offs since results there are much more random.
Well, that said, I think your article has valid points, such as we cannot today use the same “formula” as in the early 2000′s (since everyone is using deeper statistical analysis) but personally I don’t think Moneyball as a concept is dead since it is as you put it: Sabermetics with budget constraints which is the very reality for the Mets, more today than a few years back.
Well Swede I mean the whole point of playing the season is to get to and win the WS!
SHort series are convenient excuses for those who don’t win but at the end of the day whoever wins the WS is considered the BEST team in baseball that season!
And isn’t that WHY you build a team at all? To be the best?
Yes, winning the WS is the whole point, I agree. And yes, you build your team to be the best.
The team that wins the WS are champions, but not necessarily the best team – if you catch my drift. For example, this year I’d say that the Yankees has a better team than the Tigers and if you would replay the series 10 times I think the Yanks yould win 6, 7 or 8 times. Going in to the play offs, would you have preferred to have the players of the Yankees or the Tigers on your team? (looking at skill only) Despite (at least in my eyes) an inferior team, the Tigers still have the chance to be champions, the Yankees don’t. I guess this could be called semantics, but to me there is a difference. There are no moral champions in sports, so when you build your team you try to create the best odds but sometimes you’ll loose despite having the better team.
But yes, I’d reather be champion than considered to be the best – but the probability to become champion is the highest if your are the best.
Well Swede semantically you can say that about the playoffs too!
The best teams don’t make the playoffs, look at Boston, They were 90-72 and so were the Cardinals.
The BEST team is the only that wins no matter how short a series is!
Does Luck Injury or other factors sometimes change that?
YES! But at the end of the day it is said the winner of the WS is the BEST TEAM in baseball and they don’t much mention the others after that!
The Bottomline here is they all have to go through the same games to be the champ!
And despite some team that is better on paper when push comes to shove they were not better when it counted!
Boston lost their way to 90-72 Cardinals WON their way to it!
Cards got in.
Boston did not!
Wins and losses are NOT the be all and end all of SUCCESS and neither is a division or playoff entry!
Cause you might have started out as the BEST team in baseball and in the end were the worst but won enough earlier to keep your lead!
It’s not about Wins and Losses alone…they determine your entry into the playoffs but you also have to play well during those playoffs to get the title BEST IN LEAGUE!
Oakland had 100+ Wins two years in a row, Impressive right? Or was it just that they did well when there was NO pressure and CHOKED when it counted!
Should we give them credit for not advancing past the first round of the playoffs?
I’m more interested in the title not what others think should or should not have been in the WS based on paper views of numbers!
That’s the beauty of sprorts – if we knew who would win we woulden’t follow it, would we?
Our definitions of best differ and we won’t come to a conclusion – to you the champions of the WS is the best team, for me that is not necessarily true. Agree to disagee I suppose. I think we can both agree that the goal is to win the WS though!
What sabermetric principles does Alderson use in determining who he acquires? No one knows. I’d say their probably aren’t any in the guys he signed last year. It’s not like he could have targeted 5 guys out of a pool of 25, he had 13 spots to fill on the 40 man roster. He had a lot of needs and very little cash to work with.
Later when he has narrowed down some of the needs to a more manageable few he may be able to target some guys based on his own philosophy but what is his philosophy? He’s said that infield dimensions are all the same in regard to defense yet has talked about needing to upgrade the defense here. He’s talked about his perfect player being Ricky Henderson. Combination of high OB and high SLG. Who could possibly disagree with that?
There is no question that during the last dozen years multiple off season moves have blown up in our faces and flat out caused us to have so many playoff less seasons.
Big money moves that played poorly or couldn’t stay on the field took money away from where it could have done some real good and prevented us from being able to get the right guy later as well and caused us to skimp on the draft and international free agency which just keeps us more dependent on “who can we can get.”
Less and less quality is hitting the type A free agent market as more and more teams are extending their own guys or working out trade and signs with teams who have solid prospects in the farm. That means increased competition, cost and too many years. Frequently it’s only a matter of months before you realize this is just one more guy we’re going to have to live with until we can dump him for salary relief or cut his ***.
Teams suddenly making some of their good players available in trades in order to sell high rather than being stuck with no seat when the music stops should be a warning sign, not a signal to go for broke.
Beefing up the Scouting Dept in all areas of amateur baseball, HS, college, Legion, fall, summer and spring leagues is vital for the draft. Being able to extract four good Major Leaguers each June gives you something for yourself, something to trade and something for depth.
Beefing up your International scouts and having GREAT relationships with trainers and the new prospect leagues springing up is even MORE vital. International free agents take on average 7 years before they get up here. That means your using a spot on the 40 man roster for a kid who can’t help you for 3 years or your exposing him to rule 5 poachers. That’s why QUALITY should be the name of the game internationally. The Jesus Montero or Gary Sanchez instead of the Francisco Pena but you have to have the contacts, resolve and the cash to get them and it has to be a consistent year in, year out effort, not a scattershot drive by every 3rd year or so.
Heavy duty scouting of other teams minor league systems is a neccessity. It allows you to find guys who may just be 2-3 years away at an area where a logjam and resulting roster problems make trading a guy advantageous for some other team. That’s the way to address future needs when the answers not already in your system. A swap of a position your heavy at for a position someone else is heavy at to at least bridge the gap until you come up with the right guy. When opportunity comes you’ll know what to ask for in every teams systems and can avoid the old “well who else were we going to get to play _________” used to defend yet another crippling free agent signing.
Your scouts will lead you to the players that make the difference. Become a scouting based organization and follow that up with ELITE prospect development. Get guys ready to hit the ground running when they get up here, not throw them into pennant races when they should be in AA or stick them in LF when they’ve had only three minor league games in the OF.
None of these things are sabermetric principles at all. There old school Lee Macphail, Brooklyn Dodger philosophies from the 40′s that transformed a perennial doormat into a solid consistent winner year after year.
If you then add in a little extended analysis to maker a better educated choice who cares. Our mistakes have been more along the lines of rushing in without doing enough thinking for over two decades now. Doing a little more of it can’t make things worse.
You made a good point here….
“What sabermetric principles does Alderson use in determining who he acquires?”
Well last year you would have to say NONE he bought based on PAY not performance!
Pretty much the MONEYBALL without the Statistical analysis!
I don’t think he will continue that but then again this piece was never about what Alderson was GOING to do just what people here WANT him to do!
Moneyball, Sabermetrics, big payrolls, no payrolls. There are so many opinions bases on statistics that can be interpreted in so many ways. While we should be talking strictly about the Mets and the competition in the N.L. eastern division, somehow it always comes back to the Yankees and unfortunately we live in the backyard of America’s team whether we like it or not. If we go back over the last 15 years or so we would see 2 distinctly different periods of success for the Yankees. The first period coincided with Derek Jeter’s rise as a “clutch player” and the second the arrival of Alex Rodriguez. The mid to late 1990′s team had very good players earning very good salaries. They were a mix of youth (Jeter, Posada, Soriano, Rivera) and veterans (Clemons, O’Neill, Broscius, Cone, Wells). That team had tremendous character and with minor tinkering every season dominated almost every year. The next period with much higher salaries saw the Red Sox and Yankees both with the highest payrolls alternatively being on top. The swagger of the Red Sox was fueled by the likes of Pedro, Johnny Damon and David Ortiz and Jason Varitak. The Yankees though were getting an A-Rod without “the juice” and while he was still productive, his numbers were not the same and not at all clutch.
Bottom line…half the amount of championships as before…..
I prefer not to “bash” any other comments on this site but for Metsie to prefer winning a World Series every 5 years instead of being in the playoffs every year is foolish. He’d sacrifice being a team that is in the thick of it constantly for one year of glory? 1986 was superb but the truth is that that team should have won more titles. We had the best young pitcher in baseball (Gooden) and one of the top stars (Strawberry) succumb to drug and alcohol problems and basically ruin their careers. That was the first sign of poor performance by ownership as Sterling/ Doubleday failed both Doc and Darryl.
If our team is built through player development and a few trades/ free agent signings it can be a force for a decade. It doesn’t always translate into World Series winners every year but it gives you a chance. What more can you want?
It is foolish for fans to think of baseball as the same game it was 40 years ago. We can still love it even with it have becoming all about money. If our injured players return healthy we will be much better. Hopefully, Sandy Alderson can resign Jose Reyes without crippling finances and if he has the freedom and the nerve can make a few trades to get us what we need most, some starting pitching! It may cost us a DaviD Wright.
Tell me Alan in regards to the 1 WS every 5 years….
Whose performance would you rather have?
Oaklands limited run into the playoffs with no WS win in 17 years
Or the Yankees who have won a WS 5 times in 17 years? And made the Playoffs 16 times!
I said I would be happy to have only 3 WS wins in 15 years!
Because if that was the goal I am sure I would have a ton more playoff appearances than oakland did!
THATS why I said I would be happy with a WS win every 5 years, because a team that did that would probably be competing EVERY year not just 4 years before it all fell apart!