17
2011
R.I.P. Moneyball Part II –The UNDERVALUED STAT!
An article by 
Having explained more precisely what the central GOAL of Moneyball is (Save Money) I thought it might be good to talk about what it actually says it did and why it did what it did from the Statistical Analysis point of view.
Moneyball, as was stated previously, used Statistical analysis to find an UNDERVALUED METRIC that was then used to hunt for and create a MASTER LIST of players who exhibited that quality for consideration of acquisition.
How did they arrive at OBP as the undervalued metric and how would that work today?
Well the book leads us to believe that Sabermetrics were used to list and rank players and to determine which stat was prevalent in good players AND cheap players that was being overlooked by the rest of the league.
But did that really happen? Did it really show that OBP was the undervalued stat or did it by statistical bias automatically select OBP as the undervalued stat since Sabermetrics were used and invented to ILLUSTRATE the importance of OB in the game of baseball?
You see by using Sabermetrics as your analytical model you PRE-SELECTED OBP as valuable merely because Sabermetrics values that more than any other event and didn’t really let the analysis of numbers make the decision for you.
You would come up with OBP as the UNDERVALUED VALUE stat even in years when it was not.
If you didn’t construct the statistical model in a way that made OBP valuable before any comparison was made it would not have valued OBP in the first place and therefore you would not have come to the conclusion that OBP was UNDERVALUED!
Moneyball used an OB-centric statistical model and came up with OBP as the UNDERVALUED METRIC. WOW, What a SHOCK! They looked for something specific and then FOUND IT! Eureka moment or preselected destiny because they used a metric that favored the result before the result was even seen?
IE: If you ran a statistical analysis model that favored HRs above any other event you would come up with a list of GOOD and CHEAP HR hitters, and you might be left thinking HRs are the UNDERVALUED STAT, but would you be right? Would it mean that HRs are undervalued? No – what you did was lent value to something before any player comparison was made. You FOUND what you BIASED your search parameters to look for. HRs are a poor example granted because we all KNOW they are valued, but it does make the point that if you bias your stat model towards one event, it will only work if your biased model correctly ascertained the undervalued assets from the outset. Garbage in, Garbage out.
Now OB was undervalued at the time because OBP while well known, was not given the importance it is today thanks to the book Moneyball. Most teams all look at OBP now and it is no longer undervalued – it hasn’e been for quite a few years.
Sabermetrics were new, not widely used and therefore no majority of teams would come up with the same MASTER LIST as Oakland meaning they would not be FAVORING OBP and as a result OBP would be undervalued.
This is how MONEYBALL came to find that particular market inefficiency.
Would it work today?
What is the most UNDERVALUED STAT in today’s market?
Can Sabermetrics tell you what is undervalued these days?
Or will Sabermetrics come up with the SAME EXACT ANSWER as before because it values OB more than anything else?
It is believed that Sabermetrics actually found the UNDERVALUED stat but the truth is the guy who PICKED Sabermetrics as his statistical model picked OBP as the undervalued metric before any comparison, chart or calculation was made!
And it is for this reason none of the people who have a strong belief in Sabermetrics have been able to ascertain what the new UNDERVALUED metric is.
ASK them and they will not be able to tell you. Any of you sabers care to list a couple of undervalued metrics right now?
They will cite other metrics made BASED on the same OBP biased approach, leading to the same results.
They need to come up with a new statistical model that will not value one stat over another and not bias the results in favor of OBP. Otherwise just use OBP and trash the other stuff that doesn’t really lead you to anything undervalued assets.
Sabermetrics was primarily a form of statistical analysis that allowed OBP to be seen as underused and undervalued. That is all behind us now and what we now need is to discover that NEW undervalued Metric.
A NEW STATISTICAL APPROACH IS REQUIRED if that Moneyball UNDERVALUED approach is going to ever work again!
That can only occur by someone finding an event that is overlooked and creating a metric to find it.
If Sabermetrics is used by all teams then Sabermetrics will not be able to come up with an UNDERVALUED STAT because EVERYONE will be valuing it!
SO for MONEYBALL to succeed it has to abandon the Sabermetrics it used when no one knew about it, and it must invent a NEW Statistical model that no one else uses in order to get back its edge and find what no one else is looking for and placing VALUE on!
And if that’s not done?
R.I.P. Moneyball.
This Fan Shot was submitted by Mike (Metsie). Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over eleven-thousand Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 17 | .605 | - |
| Nationals | 25 | 17 | .595 | 0.5 |
| Marlins | 23 | 19 | .548 | 2.5 |
| Mets | 22 | 20 | .524 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 22 | .488 | 5.0 |
Last updated: 05/22/2012
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metsie, you will get a lot of thumbs down with this type of post.. don’t waste your time, even though this is an ok article, ppl don’t wanna hear anything remotely negative about the moneyballers or what the value is… to what i say F*** moneyball!!
So now that all the teams use these saber stats what will the geeks do now? They have become obsolete. I’m scared!
The A’s analysis determined that increasing OB% resulted in more runs scored AND was the cheapest method of doing so. They may have found for all anyone knows that HR’s were the BEST thing to increase but also the most expensive. That knocked out looking for HR hitters.
OB was what they set out upon cause it was effective AND inexpensive. Maybe not the MOST effective, but the most doable for them in their financial situation.
I always prefer to hit with men on base because that makes it a lot more likely I’ll drive a guy in and if I do, chances are better that someone will drive me in.
Such a simple concept like that shouldn’t meet with so much opposition.
“The A’s analysis determined that increasing OB% resulted in more runs scored AND was the cheapest method of doing so.”
Correct and not so correct.
They had determined that increasing OB was already proven (By Bill James) to do that it wasn’t any analysis they did on their own that determined that!
There merely said Hey Bill James seems to have something here! They used his system to create the master list which is OBP Centric and then saw cheap players made the cut!
If Bill James had not invented the Sabers in the first place it is not likely they would have found the undervalued stat! Bill James found it! Bill James in fact INVENTED IT!
All Oakland did was agree with him and look for them using his system. Did his saber system FIND the Undervalue or actually just ILLUSTRATE the undervalue of OBP? An Assumption Bill James made before he invented a single metric!
Your first 2 statements seem to be contradictory.
I thought the concept of moneyball was to exploit little known statistics to identify an undervalued player so that a team with a small payroll could compete with those with a large payroll. I didn’t think it had anything to do with ‘saving’ money.
Well if your going for UNDERVALUE your going for SAVING MONEY!
Your going for players who COST LESS!
If they didn’t SAVE MONEY there would be no UNDER the value!
no, actually you are going for more bang for your buck.
not saving money. Getting more production for the same investment.
I really don’t get why this is so hard for people to understand.
You mean paying LESS for MORE? Thats not SAVING MONEY?
Not SAVING MONEY you would have to SPEND to get the MORE if you didn’t find the UNDERVALUED STAT?
Define saving money if thats not it!
Thank GOD for MetsMerized as it’s the ONLY site on the web and may even be the only media outlet of any kind that openly challenges the Moneyball/sabermetric concepts.
Hopefully this site is just the beginning.
LOL – this is a little like saying ‘talkie movies are just a fad’.
Advanced statistics in the world of MLB are here to stay.
They’ll be constantly evolving so what one or a handful of teams come up with will be more or less the standard down the road. Right now, everyone is keeping an eye on the Rangers farm system and the ‘new fangled’ pitching program they’ve established. Their mindset is that it is possible to have a 4 man rotation without overtaxing the arm and they’re gearing their program for young pitchers to move towards that. Only time will tell if they’re on the right track.
YOu don’t know that.
You don’t know if it’s just a fad and will fade away. Branch Rickey wrote about the importance of OBP years ago and where did that go? It faded so hopefully this will pass too.
You just don’t have a true understanding of the game of baseball and you turned to advanced metrics for solace. That’s how a lot of fans are. People like you and any fall into that category and you both don’t want to spend a penny either. Try grasping the concept of competition. You 2 are just typical fans that have discovered something new in the information age.
You’re right – no one knows.
If I had to give it odds, I’d lay them at 99% it’s here to stay. There is no way any GM is going to ignore stats all other 29 teams are looking at. Not unless they come up with one no one has bought into yet. Then we’ll be looking at Moneyball II.
moneyball II will happen. Since all it really represents is a shot taken by a team that couldn’t spend as much as other teams to still beat them on the field.
Yeah and until they find another UNDERVALUED METRIC it can’t! That is the point!
Moneyball didn’t find the undervalued metric….
Sabers didn’t even REALLY find it!
In fact the UNDRVALUED METRIC was not even OBP!
The Undervalued metric WAS SABERMETRICS!
Sabermetrics is all about the OBP. It was INVENTED for that purpose!
And now that everyone knows and values it to a degree Sabermetrics can no longer BE the UNDERVALUED METRIC by nature of it’s current Value!
In order for MONEYBALL II to work a NEW UNDERVALUED metric must be found!
Sabers will come up with the same answer OBP!
Any other Saber that people might use will not be UNDERVALUED because Sabers are not undervalued anymore!
This is the MAIN POINT of the Article!
Someone has to INVENT a NEW METRIC one that does not use Sabers alone (but does use Advanced Statistics) to illustrate it!
Smoething that either does not bias OBP more than any other stat or can more correctly ascertain what is complete contribution of any given player that no one else knows about so they can not VALUE it as much as you do!
If you use the Sabers to try this you will not find the UNDERVALUE because no one UNDERVALUES Sabers anymore!
They may not value it as much as some other but they will still easily be able to look at them and find what you find and act accordingly!
I believe you just confirmed my point, just with more capital letters.
moneyball is NOT the same as sabermetrics. So moneyball II could easily be based on something completely different. Maybe someone discovers that pitchers with finger length in the 95th percentile throw harder with better control. Well, that might end up being what a low budget team goes out to look for. Moneyball II: long digits.
Not USING Sabermetrics!
THATS the point!
The undervalued Metric WAS SABERMETRICS not OBP!
Sabermetrics was made to FIND the OBP in the first place!
It will find it again now!
Not anything BUT OBP
So Sabers can not be used for Moneyball!
EVER AGAIN! Until everyone ignores the Sabers and moves onto something else!
Which will probably be some new form of analysis that correctly determines what events are being ignored!
just because every team knows what sabermetrics “proves” doesn’t mean it isn’t valuable.
just like every team knows that pitchers that strike out a lot of guys but don’t walk many are good to have. You still have to find them.
and you did just state what the goal of any analysis is. Find the next undiscovered gem.
No it IS valuable! And EVERYONE KNOWS IT so it can’t not find the UNDERVALUE since whatever Sabers tells you is no longer UNDERVALUED!
Like The Extra 2% by Jonah Keri?
“There is no way any GM is going to ignore stats all other 29 teams are looking at.”
That’s just simply not true – Not all other 29 teams look at it.
http://archive.phillyarena.com/archives/2009-11-21/Phillies-not-interested-in-Sabermetrics
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/2018/do-phillies-ignore-sabermetrics
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2010/10/sabermetrics-math-doesnt-add-up-to-philies-manager-charlie-manuel-/1
And it’s just not the Phillies – The Twins don’t use it. The Brewers aren’t big fans of it. I also know the Royals don’t use it. And who knows how many other teams that don’t like it either, but don’t want to talk about it to the media – Like how are you 100% sure that Larry beinfest and the Marlins use advanced stats? You don’t know if they do.
You really do live off in your own little universe when it comes to baseball, don’t you?
‘True’ understanding of baseball? Turned to metrics for solace?
I can’t even bother responding to these comments.
I’ll just let the amount of thumbs down your comments usually get speak for themselves on where most fans mindsets are on this issue. I believe it’s somewhere in the middle though and not as black and white as you would have everyone believe.
Advanced Statistics Yes!
Sabermetrics do not EQUAL advanced Stat analysis!
Sabers are a form of advanced stat analysis that is focused on OB
Advanced Statistical analysis can focus on ANYTHING!
sabermetrics also incompasses lots of stats (the way the term is used now). WAR, ERA+, lots of pitching stuff. basiclaly anything that tries to take raw stats, and translate it to show how they lead to a desired goal (wins, runs, etc.).
OBP is a derived basic stat. So with WHIP. OPS, same. just different ways of representing what a player did.
sabers intent all along was to determine what those #s mean. Is slugging worth more than OBP? How much value does a SB have? How much difference does defense make in a players value?
I know some people still want BB to be purely based on gut feeling, what you “know” to be true, etc. But that still leads to situational bias comparing players (you see what you want to see).
back in the day, Ricky Henderson and George Foster were both top LFs, but totally different players. But, if you had to pick one, which one would add more value (lead to more wins)? Extrapolate that to types of players to draft, and saber analysis helps.
But most of those are nothing more than DERIVATIVEs of Sabers which in itself was all about OB!
Look at the values in those stats what are they comprised of?
You will see they are built upon the Sabers!
And what you do not seem to be getting here…
SABERS ARE NOT UNDERVALUED ANYMORE!
They CAN NOT come up with the undervalue because they ARE valued!
No it’s more like FILM is a FAD! Movies are the baseball. FILM was the MEDIUM used to create that product. The CONTENT is the same. Has not changed but the medium to create that product has changed. Hardly any of the movies you see have anything to do with FILM. It has all turned digital!
And while Sabers may be used for the foreseeable futire (AS film is still used by those who can’t afford the equipment needed for full digitial production) it will at some point fail to give any team the edge they thought they were getting as more teams look at them!
And in the case of money ball which is to find players others aren’t even considering those players are going to be hard to find since others will now be CONSIDERING them!
Demand will dwindle supply!
It will be increasingly more difficult to create a good team via Sabers because you will not have the edge it used to have when Oakland was the only one using them!
NO MORE UNDERVALUES!
A new metric will be created to GET that edge and if someone is dumb enough to write a book about it instead of keeping it in their vest pocket and using it to build a winner then that approach will ALSO lose it’s edge!
Oakland was able to save money because they had a damn near proprietary hold on Sabermetrics at the time.
They can’t find UNDERVALUED players anymore because they lost their EDGE on the competition!
And therefore MONEYBALL can NO LONGER rely on Sabermetrics to find the UNDERVALUE!
Sabers may stay used for wuite awhile…But MONEYBALL? R.I.P.
Until a new EDGE and METRIC is found! And Sabers won’t find it because Sabers WAS the Undervalued Metric!
the content of movies hasn’t changed? going from silent to talking, BW to color, 3D and CGI animation?
Not to mention subject matter!
Nope they stared off as stories in visual form and CONTINUE to be Stories in VISUAL FORM.
Even Silent Films had SOUND you know!
It was a musical score that was played LIVE while the film was shown!
The TECHNOLOGY used to create and present them have changed.
But Movies are still the same thing they have always been!
A Story represented by moving image!
You are unbelievable. This site simply posts both sides of the equations and thank God opinions like yours are the minority here. You are a legend in your own mind and actually a celebrity on some sites who see you as a cross between Archie Bunker and Bozo the clown.
A team simply does not need it in the major leagues.
You can run a Major League organization without any reference to advanced metrics. Period. Wow, what a unique concept.
Oh okay, you convinced me – the interns can run into the office and use WHIP and OPS just to give a general idea and save time. Like the genius here the other day who criticized Wally Backman for his OPS. How stupid. How about learning about baseball first.
not that whip or ops are advanced metrics.
And all wally’s OPS proved is that he was not a particularly dominant hitter. Scrappy yes, but no power, and most of the time not a particularly high OBP. nothing that you couldn’t see looking at his basic #s, or watching him play back in the day.
good hustling guy to have on the team, but you needed some serious bats elsewhere to make up for him.
Well if you knew anything about baseball you’d realize it will take ALL types, even types you don’t like, to build a team.
Don’t know if you’re aware but 99%of the time you’re not gonna field a lienup that will fulfill all of your sabermetric or statistically fulfilling qualifications.
What you said is akin to saying “thank God the Mets had hitters to make up for Rey Ordonez, or make up for Bud Harrelson. Or thank God KC Royals had hitters to make up for Freddie Patek, or the Red Sox had hitters to make up for Jerry Remy.
That type of thinking simply does not make sense, is not realistic, and just tells me that anyone who thinks like that simply does not know baseball.
You have a very limited understanding of the game of baseball but if I printed out an excel spreadsheet and said “here, translate the boxscore into all of your favorite sabermetric stats” you’d be a tiger.
Or do I have to create the tables and formulas for you too?
moneyball was just the name of a book. It was a snapsot intime.
Sabermetrics though weren’t inteneded to find the undervalued. The purpose was to take all the traditional stats, and figure out which ones led to more wins.
It was up to teams to then go find players that fit the profile and could be had cheaper, because the players were undervalued by the marketplace.
But, once every team had access (and looked at) all the saber stats, the inneficiency would effectively disappear. Except, of course, for that fact that how to apply those stats (like any others) is totally up to the individual GM or team.
Just another tool in a big tool box.
Correct just a tool in the toolbox…
in EVERYONE’s Toolbox which means using that tool can NO LONGER tell you or give you what the UNDERVALUED stat is!
You need a NEW TOOL one that no one else uses or has invented yet!
Thats the point of this piece!
Gms are always looking for the next edge. It’s the holy grail basically. so yes, I agree with that.
and Moneyball was more than a decade ago. Ancient history.
And having to live under a payroll cap (even if it was lower than the previous year) is called reality, not moneyballing!
Right so until a NEW way to looka at Traditionals is invented MONEYBALL for all intents and purposes are DEAD!
Since the Sabers that no one knew about back then and made it work are now KNOWN and VALUED!
Moneyball as it was written can never happen again USING Sabers!
Could happen using something else and I stated that in the piece didn’t I?
But Sabers can’t repeat what it did!
“Having explained more precisely what the central GOAL of Moneyball is (Save Money)”
So, being wrong doesn’t change your hypothesis.
That is some sound reasoning there.
Prove I’m wrong or shut up!
The piece has a challenge to folks like you!
NAME THE UNDERVALUED STAT OF 2011!!!!!
If you can’t I WIN!
“Prove I’m wrong or shut up!”
Not how it works. You make the claim, you back it up.
You also seem to have trouble with the concept of “undervalued”. Assuming there is an undervalued stat (which you haven’t proved), if we here could tell you what it is, I doubt it would be all that undervalued.
Yes thats exactly how it works!
NAME THE UNDERVALUE or you failed to prove me wrong!
One does not prove a negative. You’ve been reminded of that many times.
Oh grow up and admit you can’t meet the challenge!
Until you name the undervalued stat you can’t prove me wrong!
I also can’t prove Noah didn’t build a wooden ark bigger than a standard oil tanker. Yet, I don’t believe it happened.
Or that there wasn’t a second shooter on the grassy knoll. Yet, I don’t believe there was one.
Or that there isn’t a giant man ape roaming the Pacific North West. Yet, I don’t believe that he’s up there.
Why?
Because the people who are making the claims have to prove them. You have to prove the positive. Other wise, we work under the pretense it doesn’t happen.
Yet your willing to testify in a court of law that there WAS NO shooter despite not even being a witness or having ANY information on what the truth is aren’t you?
I say your a Money they dressed up and taught to use a Keyboard…
I can’t prove it but thats what I believe!
I MUST BE CORRECT THEN!
The Oswald acted alone theory is backed up by evidence.
And you have no idea how actually discussions work.
Yep that pretty much proves my Monkey trained to use a keyboard theory!
You have NEVER discussed anything EVER on this site…
Just cheerleaded the few who DO and then insulted whoever it was they were discussing it with!
HOW OLD ARE YOU ANYWAY?
Cause I see welfare in your future if this is how good you are at getting things done and having intteligent conversations!
And note YOUR THE ONLY WAHOO here that has yet to discuss the topic and just snipe like a 3 year old!
No such thing as an undervalued metric anymore. They refuse to admit the theory behind moneyball is now dead. Move on. That’s why the only response from them is mudslinging. They cant answer your question because they are out of bullets.
I know Stache you know what IS undervalued these days?
READING COMPREHENSION! LOL
Because if they read what I said they would know that I was saying SABERMETRICS was the undervalued metric not OBP and now that everyone values the Sabers it is impossible to find undervalued players anymore…
But they don’t get it they just are defending a religion and don’t really care what I said!
Jessup even posted half a dozen quotes he thinks were against me which actually made my point all the more proven!
EVERYONE VALUES NOW what ws UNDERVALUED!
The Metric, The Anaysis system used to judge it and ALL the Derivatives invented from it!
Everyone looks at those things and therefore they are no longer undervalued!
And until they find a new undervalued stat Moneyball is pretty much not possible!
Metsie just out of curiosity.What is your obsession with moneyball? I mean the cats been out of the bag for a few years now.Oakland had a nice little run with it,it didn’t result in a title but they competed with a very low payroll.But I’ll ask you again.What does it have to do with the Mets?
4 thumbs down for asking Metsie a question.LMAO only on MMO.
My obsession? I’m not the one suggesting cutting Salary is all that great an idea!
I’m not the one suggesting we do sign Reyes or Trade Wright for kids…
I’m not the one who says you need to spend LESS cause SPENDING MORE is a MISTAKE!
And what relevance does it have with the NY Mets?
If Sandy does what many of you want you will get to see Moneyball first hand!
Man I wrote a nice response and its gone. That’s a bummer
i’m not sure I get what you’re trying to do in your multi-day thesis here? Are you trying to say GMs valued OBP as much as they do now? Are you trying to say baseball in 2001 was the same as it is now? Are you trying to say that what Beane did in Oakland had no impact on the sports?
Okay first, read this article please
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Moneyball-theory-still-relevant-to-mlb-8-years-later-but-debate-has-shifted-092011
Inside that article should you choose to read thoughts of people smarter than us, are a slew of GMs detailing in different ways how things changed after the book.
My favorite quote is Brian Cashman, “Once the book came out, it was like Coke’s secret formula.”
There are ALWAYS going to be people who disagree with a point of view. The book, gave us a sneak peak at the way a front office was run. It wasn’t written by the man in charge.
What I think you also miss is that, as you and I know sabermetrics doesn’t mean employees of the Yankees know the same metrics. There isn’t some magic excel spreadsheet out there. They take the data they find most useful, and what Moneyball taught us if anything is, don’t share your secrets.
What works for Tampa Bay, may not be how they do things in NY in terms of statistical analysis.
You asked what are some undervalued metrics in the sport. So to name a few
Defense: Defensive stats are not understood well enough to make informed decisions. Remember that whole Jason Bay discussion. Sure, we “know” Mike Piazza isn’t the best defensive C, but frankly there are not legit ways to compare two fielders with similar qualities. Sure you can piece something together, but it won’t be accurate enough. Whoever comes up with this, sure won’t write a book about it!
There are people who are working on Connecting Range factor and fielding % (also adjusted against league average) and then factor in team ERA versus league avg with park factors.
It’s a ton of work, and it’s one of those “skills” that baseball execs as well as statistical analysts have not properly figured out.
BABIP is an undervalued stat as well. For those that do not know its Batting Average on Balls In Play.
BABIP is an undervalued stat as well. For those that do not know its Batting Average on Balls In Play.
Can you post a top 20 in BABIP for 2011 minimum 300 AB?
Lets see what undervalued players popup?
I normally don’t agree with Jessep, but I want to chime in on one thing.
If you find a player with a tragically low BABIP, he might be in line for a rebound year. I research this statistic quite often with the players who lead the league in batting average, to see how lucky they were, and players who I expected to have a better batting average and they didn’t meet the standard (due to a little bad luck).
Some players consistently have a high babip, like Ichiro, and it becomes negligible for him.
Here’s a quick example:
Carlos Gonzalez batted .336 in 2010. His BABIP was .384, which is pretty lucky. His average was set to drop.
In 2011, he batted .295. His BABIP was a more normal .326. Therefore, we should expect his average to hover around the .290-.300 area rather than .330.
I don’t know if it will find any super under valued players or anything, honestly, but it can help tell you if a player is slightly overrated/underrated.
“Some players consistently have a high babip, like Ichiro, and it becomes negligible for him.”
Pretty much any solid line drive hitter will have a higher than average BABIP because line drives fall in for hits at a crazy rate.
Satish what you say might very well be possible…but you wouldn’t be looking or picking based on the UNDERVALUE of the stat in that case…
You would however be UNDERVALUING what it says and picking accordingly would you not?
Do you know how BABIP is used?
I didn’t say it finds undervalued talent. If you know how to use BABIP you’d know it’s not only to find talent but also to find OVERvalued talent.
The question was to find an undervalued STAT. BABIP isn’t a stat you just sort by best to worst and say “I want those guys.” You have to use it and compare to prior years.
Take Josh Hamilton.
Josh Hamilton .333 BABIP 2008, .319 BABIP 2009, .390 BABIP in 2010
Batting averages: .304 2008, .268 2009, and .359 in 2010
Which of those numbers seems oddly out of place to you? If you’re being honest, you’d say 2010.
So using BABIP one can “PREDICT” Hamilton’s batting average should drop in 2011 no?
.317 BABIP .298 average in 2011.
For pitchers you can do a lot with BABIP, one of them being figuring out if a player over-performed or under performed due to bad luck
Here are some examples
Verlander .236 prior years: (oldest to 2010) .294, .279, .296, .319, .286
Romero .242 prior years: .333, .289
Beckett .245 prior years w Boston: .262, .304, .315, .290, .338
Weaver .250 prior years .312, .298, .278, .276
Hamels .255 prior years .279, .259, .317, .289
Shields .258 prior years .287, .308, .341
Cain .260 prior years .278 .297, .263, .252
Lilly .260 prior years .261, .270, .261, .247, .260
Marcum .261 prior years .267, .245, .279
So based on those, I’d say its safer to predict Matt Cain, Cole Hamels will repeat their 2011 performance moreso than it is for say Verlander or Beckett.
By the way to tie it to “home” here is Jose Reyes’ #s
2005: .298 avg .273
2006: .320 avg .300
2007: .302 avg .280
2008: .317 avg .297
2009: .307 avg .279
2010: .301 avg .282
2011: .353 avg .337
You should keep this under your hat before all the other major league teams find out about it.
The fact his BA was almost 100 points higher than is career avg was enough of a tipoff Hamilton would come back to earth in 2011. I have no idea what your point is on Reyes. I have no idea what his BABIP is this year but want to bet he’ll bat at least 20 points lower in 2012? I dont need BABIP to know that.
Yeah I don’t really see why I would need BABIP to tell me a guy like reyes was ABOVE average and will likely go back to his .290 ways after he gets his payday!
All that should be significant about what he did this season is to illustrate he IS capable if properly motivated and if you want it to repeat then just find a way to motivate him to do just that!
Trends are pretty easy to determine just look at the career average and see which side of it he has been on lately.
And that helps you find cheaper players who do the same as more expensive players how?
How does looking at who might MAINTAIN get you more per dollar for a player aquisition?
You see it isn’t really an UNDERVALUED stat!
And while most teams use Sabers BABIP is used by them all so your not going to KNOW anything anyone else doesn’t know as was the case when Moneyball was able to do what it did!
I don’t know if its my lack of caring or your lack of clarity
What are you trying to prove? That everybody uses sabermetrics?
I don’t really understand why you’re yelling about it?
A stat has a value given to it by the people who make baseball decisions. I actually PREFER SLG % to OBP. A guy like our buddy alex we know values Batting Average over OBP. Correct?
Therefore if I am a GM who prefers SLG %, I may like a guy like Peter Bourjos of the Angels more than Emilio Bonnifacio or Michael Bourn.
Perhaps you have Bourjos and I have Bonnifacio and I look for a swap. There are SOME people who think conventionally and say “wow Bonnifacio hit .296″ and they value that over Bourjos #s.
Every stat has a value, and through conversations with GMs you can easily figure out what they value most and what they do not value. Beane was finding AT THE TIME people were practically ignoring OBP, so he used that to his advantage.
He may call the Marlins, maybe they value Speed… maybe the Mets value OBP, maybe the Brewers value power numbers.
You have no earthly idea what stats are valued and what are undervalued in MLB 2011. Why? Because nobody’s had a book written about their methods recently.
My two guesses are guesses, but they are certainly more educational than you saying there are no undervalued (or overvalued) stats.
All of your quotes MAKES my point!
They are ALL IN ON IT!
Therefore Sabermetrics can NOT FIND an UNDERVALUED STAT because they are no longer UNDERVALUED by ANYONE!
They all use Sabers, They all get the same lists, They all can go after the same player and the price is no longer DEFLATED because people are no longer IGNORING the players anymore because they also use SABERMETRICS!
Maybe you should read what I said instead of just taking a contrary position that didn’t disprove anything I said just made my POINT for me!
No you’re missing the point Metsie.
The sabermetrics that Paul DePodesta uses are not used in the same way as Theo Epstein uses his.
They all don’t share a brain. They find ways to best use the data in front of them. The SYSTEM Beane used was to compete when teams were cranking up their payrolls and he couldn’t do so. The market has changed. If you walk into an interview to work for Beane and say “I should get this job because I understand moneyball” he’d probably throw you out.
I just told you two statistics or groups of stats which are undervalued today. And sabers are undervalued by some. A guy like Theo Epstein may find data on a player that Milwaukee’s Melvin has no idea about because he doesn’t have as detailed a staff to find that data. He may hire 1 guy just to make an owner happy.
If everybod pumped in the same $, and personnel into their depts then it would be of equal value.
How Sabers are used is irrelevant to this piece!
The reason MONEYBALL was able to find what it did was because it used sabers when NO ONE ELSE DID!
It gave ANSWERS no one else could get WITHOUT using Sabers!
And those answers allowed them to select cheaper players with equivilent output of expensive players!
EVERYONE HAS THOSE ANSWERS NOW!
EVERYONE LOOKS at SABERS!
Therefore there is NO EDGE to be gained in regards to finding something no one else sees and since everyone sees it it will have the same VALUE to all!
The concept of FINDING the undervalued Metric can’t work because all the Sabermetrics ARE VALUED!
There are NO UNDERVALUED METRICS until someone INVENTS a new one!
Which is probably what a lot of teams are doing to some extent!
And those Metrics are not Sabers in the sense of a Bill James invention.
They may want to CALL them Sabers but unless they are all about the significance of OB they are not really SABERS just Advanced Statistical analysis that may or may not lend ANY improtance to OBP which is what Sabers was invented to show!
so you’re telling me that you think the math work just stopped?
You think the Red Sox hired Bill James simply because they liked his work and figured he deserves a job to do what anybody else can do?
Or could it be that these statistical folks being hired are not only being hired to READ the data but to come up with new ways of measuring?
Do you need to watch Good Will Hunting again? Math evolves. Technology evolves.
Moneyball was published in 2003. Beane became Asst GM of the A’s in 1994 and the team began using sabermetric principles in 1995 afte Walter Haas Jr passed away. In 1998 Beane became GM.
So you’re reading a book about how a front office runs in all likelihood 5-10 years AFTER they first began operating in that way.
Again you have the LUXURY of seeing a peek of what went on inside the front office of a big league club for 1 season, and you read about it about 6 years after the process began.
Think about that. And now tell me that in 2021 all 28 teams will operate under the same ideas and principles?
You have no clue what goes on inside say the Rays front office. And you probably never will because that book if anything hurt the A’s because as Brian Cashman (a guy who runs a pretty good team I heard) said “Once the book came out, it was like Coke’s secret formula.”
I wish you guys would call a truce. I’m so tired of seeing this same inane and useless debate every time I come to this site. Moderators, please moderate. I’m begging you.
Comes down to this Jessup…WHAT IS the undervalued Metric?
You think it is SLG? Thats what you said right?
Is SLG a metric that isn’t valued?
Yes Math and Technology EVOLVES!
WHich means SABERMETICS will not be up to the job of selecting the UNDERVALUE because everyone is UP on that technology and Math!
You can’t be sure SLG is undervalued from the Metrics. Because everyone knows about it. How many people knew about OBP when it was the Undervalued metric?
Compare those numbers to the number of teams who KNOW about SLG and BABIP and WAR and etc etc…
The Edge is gone using Sabers!
The ones that have been created are all based on the SAME PREMISE, OB is key and the others are merely ways of projecting which OB and which players have good numbers based on that premise!
All your SABERS are about how OB and what type of OB relates to RS!
Either compared to a replacement or on a per base rating and all those other fancy calcs you cite that start off with OB!
And Since everyone has the SECRET there is NO SECRET!
SO Moneyball will not work until the NEW metric is found…
You know those unknown Metrics ALL you Saber folks say does not relate better than OBP/SLG?
That refuses to look at SacFly’s and Bunts as a CONTRIBUTING ACT!
That rates a RBOE as a better accomplishment for a batter than a actual HIT!
Or those stats you use to rate a player when compared to some PHANTOM REPLACEMENT!
These statistical guy are NOT coming up with the new metrics, THATS the problem here!
They like you are just trying to recreate a secret EDGE based on a recipie that has been released to the ENTIRE WORLD!
The Guys being hired are not creating anything NEW they are just trying to do what Oakland did when no one had a clue what Oakland was doing and it gave them an edge!
Metsie I am going to say this slowly for you.
I look at SLG more than OBP. That doesn’t mean I feel it’s undervalued.
I said I BELIEVE the most undervalued stats are defensive metrics and BABIP. I don’t know how to put that more clearly.
What it comes down to is you are stomping your feet and screaming from a soapbox about something that isn’t even a proveable point.
You didn’t KNOW OBP may have been undervalued in MLB until the book was published. GM’s don’t walk around telling the public which stats they value most, why? Because if I value OBP and I think you value AVG… I’m gonna keep my mouth shut because you may have something I want.
Everybody KNEW what OBP was in 2001. It’s about the value a decision maker places on a specific stat. If I come to St. Louis in the 80′s, perhaps I value Speed because of the field we play on. If I talk to a guy from the Cubs, perhaps he doesn’t value speed as much due to the confines of Wrigley. Thus Speed IN MY VIEW as a CARDS GM is undervalued. Get it?
You’re trying to be smarter than the guys who make baseball decisions. Guys like Cashman, Theo said it in that article… the book was meaningful and changed the game.
Everybody uses sabermetrics differently, and everybody has a new way of looking at certain stats. Math doesn’t stop. There’s some guy working with Bill James in Boston right now trying to figure out the best way to measure defense.
I don’t even understand why you’re trying to prove Moneyball won’t work in 2011. Who is arguing with you? The game is different now than it was.
Get off your soapbox.
SO then tell us joe what the UNDERVALUED METRIC IS PLEASE!
That was the challenge made in the article!
Do that and show us how teams are not spending a lot or that there are a lot of successful players who make little that are high in that metric!
You say SLG is undervalued…
Who is the cheap buy here?
Player
Bautista, J
Braun, R
Kemp, M
Cabrera, M
Fielder, P
Beltre, A
Ortiz, D
Granderson, C
Ellsbury, J
Morse, M
Gonzalez, A
Berkman, L
Tulowitzki, T
Pujols, A
Stanton, M
Hamilton, J
Cano, R
Votto, J
Upton, J
Gonzalez, C
Tell us who the Value is using BABIP
Just tell us and you will prove that those are the UNDERVALUED STAT!
You claim to know what your talking about so name the UNDERVALUED STAT and prove me wrong!
Doesn’t get simpler than that!
Can you do it or are you going to keep calling me WRONG without any proof to back it up?
Some quotes from that article should you choose not to read
“Those who jumped in early got a head start,” St. Louis Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. says. “But most clubs now, one way or another . . . they’re on it. No one is saying, ‘What is this? What am I missing?’ They’re all on it. Everyone has their different models for success.”
Sabean makes it clear that the Giants continue to rely heavily on their scouts, saying, “we’re still in the scouting business in my mind.” But he also notes the contributions of two young Giants executives whose responsibilities include crunching numbers, Jeremy Shelley, 38, and Yeshayah Goldfarb, 33.
“The book, when taken in the context of relevance to how teams are currently run in terms of philosophy and strategy, is outdated. It was always one extreme perspective,” Shapiro says.
“What can’t be debated is that the book caused a wide spectrum of people engaged and involved in the game — from ownership to people on the front lines — to at the very least question some of the ways they go about the process of making decisions.”
Before Paul DePodesta became Beane’s top assistant with the A’s and later GM of the Los Angeles Dodgers, he was an advance scout with the Indians in 1997 and ’98.
DePodesta, the inspiration for the character portrayed by Jonah Hill in “Moneyball,” would chart games on paper, then transfer the information to a computer to make writing reports easier.
“Then we dreamed about how great it would be if we could actually link video clips to the data,” DePodesta recalls. “We talked about it for years, and it was such a significant breakthrough that I remember where I was in my car when I got the call saying it was possible.
“Even with that, though, I knew every night I was watching a game that I was missing 95 percent of the action around the league. Today, just a decade later, teams have access to virtually every pitch thrown the entire year in every single game in even greater detail, and yet, they don’t have to chart a single pitch!”
“It was probably inevitable,” says DePodesta, who is now the New York Mets’ vice-president of player development and scouting. “Look at just about every industry over the past quarter-century, how that industry may have been impacted by data.
“That explosion of information was going to impact our game one way or another. Whether we did it or not in Oakland, it was going to happen.
“For me, it started in San Diego, working for a small-market team,” says Epstein, who spent five seasons in the Padres’ baseball operations department before joining the Red Sox as an assistant GM in March 2002.
“I spent the vast majority of time focused on players who were undervalued for some reason or another, trying to build value through small acquisitions, through looking at players through a slightly different lens than the marketplace.
“How they approached their pitching program was of interest to me,” Cashman says. “I was throwing out much more (pitching) talent than the Red Sox had and they were having more success. It goes to execution, game plans, stuff like that.”
If high-revenue teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox are now as savvy as the A’s once were in exploiting market inefficiencies, what does that leave for the little guys?
“Some of the large-market clubs have learned to exploit their resources across every level of the baseball operation — technology, analytics, everything,” the Indians’ Shapiro says.
“Moneyball,” Cashman says, “opened up an old-school industry into today’s business environment. And it exploded.”
So, what comes next? What does the future hold?
The biggest inefficiency in the game remains health. It’s not only the A’s who crumble seemingly every season due to injuries.
Metsie, could you perhaps summarize your little thesis here? I’d really like to know what your point is in a quick snap shot.
Because I really think that you, The Stache, and others are arguing about a point no one has made.
it seems that it is you doinal who should summarize your little utterances . If you did it would be a blank plage since you have nothing of value to ever say.
Saaaaaawing and a miss
I’ve been following this thread all day. The best I can come up with is my head hurts…..
Seriously, I think Jessep is making the best points about this. Or perhaps he’s just explaining himself better than most others.
I thought I understood the main focal point of Metsie’s articles but the more comments I read in response to other posters, the more I’m confused on what the original point of this post was to start with.
Metsie…the crux of your argument seems to be that you are just completely afraid of change, which is why you’ve gone on this little anti-moneyball crusade. Whether you like it or not, moneyball was an important concept and the search for the new inefficiency, whatever that inefficiency may be, is happening. Obviously, on base percentage isn’t undervalued anymore by most teams…duh! However, there is always going to be something else that is undervalued and you’ll never know it unless you’re talking with big league GM’s on a regular basis.
Same thing with statistics. You’re quite obviously afraid of statistics and would rather yell and scream and pout about why they’re no good and why they’re ruining the game instead of educating yourself and learning about them and trying to accept that it’s a major part of the evaluation of players and the business of baseball. Your nonsensical posts just prove how scared you are of new concepts.
We’re afraid of change that has nothing to do with improving your chances to win games and more to do with the scientific study of marginal/cheap ballplayers you hope to get lucky with while saving money at the same time.
That’s not competition.
Okay…believe what you’d like to believe.
Oh please you are so far off the mark it isn’t even funny!
I AM THE ONE SAYING CHANGE IS NEEDED!
SABER SECRET IS OUT!
IT WON’T WORK ANYMORE!
TIME TO MAKE A NEW SECRET and this time don’t write a book about it!
But no one misses the point as good as you do !
HOW OLD ARE YOU?
Ok Quick Monarch Notes here for those who are reading challenged!
First point – Chicken or the EGG! Did Sabers determine that OBP was the UNDERVALUED METRIC or did the belief in OBP being undervalued determine that Sabermetrics be used to find the players? I say the last one! Sabermetrics was INVENTED to illustrate the assumption that OBP was valuable and used as proof that good players were good in that stat!
Second Point – Can Sabers find any undervalued metric at all? No it finds OBP is valued above everything else, CONSTRUCTED to show this and as a result will NOT tell you what IS UNDERVALUED all by itself since it has no means of telling you WHO GOT PAID WHAT! This was pointed out in Part I!
Third Point – Since Sabermetrics was the secret that helped find players who were good at the UNDERVALUED stat and it is no longer a secret and accepted as TRADITIONAL by the pros, There is no longer any EDGE in using them!
Fourth Point – In order to find something NO ONE KNOWS about to get an edge you can not rely on numbers, math, and PHILOSOPHIES people know about to find the secret ingredient!
Anyone can read from your recipie book (unlike back when Oakland had the recipie and the book was not published yet) and therfore you will NEVER FIND a Metric as undervalued as Oakland did! a New recipie is required!
Since all Sabers are now posted for anyone to throw into their spreadsheet they can come up with the same answer and WILL! You are no longer the ONLY ONE who is going after that UNDERVALUE even ONE OTHER marks up the price! SAVINGS LOST!
What you need to do in order to make Moneyball work as well as some of you think it did is to INVENT NEW METRICS, NEW APPROACHES to EVALUATION of talent that no one else has thought of!
And since not one person has come up with a new metric that isn’t already listed on some Saber Rattling Website MONEYBALL is DEAD!
Can never work the way it did until some NEW VERSION of BILL JAMES comes along with an even BETTER METRIC and approach than Sabers to judge player talent!
THIS IS POSSIBLE!
But only if you are prepared to abandon all the prejudices that led to Sabers and are central to it’s philosophy…
Such as Counting a SacFLy as a PLUS not a MINUS event.
Such as taking into account how many of those OBs are scored and weighting heavier than a plain old OB, By awarding those guys who DRIVE IN the runs regardless of their also making an out and weighting thier SUCCESS in driving in runs compared to their oppertunity!
But too many of you are so lost in the bias’ that Sabers was intent on selling that you REFUSE to open your mind to any of those notions!
And since you Saber Rattlers are also the BIGGEST SUPPORTERS of the Moneyball LIMITATION philosophy you will never succeed due to closed minds and no more EDGE because everyone KNOWS about you system you refuse to budge from and improve!
“Sabermetrics was INVENTED to illustrate the assumption that OBP was valuable and used as proof that good players were good in that stat!”
You keep saying that but never prove it.
Yeah well when you ever offer a shred of proof to back up what you say I will return the favor until then I suggest you grow up and stop crapping up the DISCUSSION with your tripe sniping!
What discussion? You’re just making a bunch of baseless proclamations and then refuse to defend them.
PROVE I AM!
I DARE YOU!
NAME THE UNDERVALUED STAT!
You’re in no place to make demands. You invent a bunch of false assumptions, use them as a base for a painfully flawed thesis, get the flaws pointed out right off the bat before we can even get into any real calculations, then you go around demanding people prove wrong an idea based on false pretenses.
Yeah never seems to have stopped you?
Either make a point or make an exit!
I got not time for teenaged per-pubescent kids who offer no proof for their objections to what I posted and then demand someone else do what they refuse to do in the first place!
I dare you to stop typing.
I dare you to meet the challenge or admit you can’t!
Cause all of these posts by you Donal and Who are just proving my point!
YOU CAN NOT defend against what I said so your posts are geared towards trying to debunk what I said wiothout any proof to do so!
You say you do not know what the FOs are using as undervalued!
Well did Oakland?
You seem to suggest SABERS found them and I say NO they did not!
So prove me wrong use sabers and find the new undervalue!
If you can’t then you prove my last point, sabers can not find the undervalued metric anymore!
Until then your just yapping in the breeze with no usefull information to make your point!
Find it and prove what I said was not true!
If you can’t do that jessup then you make my point for me!
Just as you did when you posted those quotes you thought were going to prove me wrong that actually made my point in spades!
Just yapping hoping to distract people from the truth I posted because it got lost the avalanche of MUD you keep shoveling!
And truth is MUD isn’t the word I wanted to use there!
Point 1 – Neither, because your premise is wrong. OBP is not a sabermetric stat and sabermetrics has nothing to do with the market as it relates to what it values or undervalues. “Sabermetrics” is just the name given to advanced statistics named because of the Society for American Baseball Research. Nothing more, nothing less.
Point 2 – Wrong premise again. Sabermetrics has nothing to do with what the market values or undervalues. See Point 1. And it doesn’t “find” OBP as anything. OBP has been around since before Bill James knew what baseball was and the reason it’s value is so high has nothing to do with sabermetrics. It’s because it’s the best indicator of scoring runs. Nothing has ever been found or proven to be better. It’s not perfect, it’s not infallible and it’s not 100% accurate, but it’s the best.
Point 3 – Entirely wrong understanding of what happened, again. Sabermetrics wasn’t used to find undervalued anything. OBP was determined to be the best indicator of scoring runs and it happened to be undervalued at the time. Sabermetrics had nothing to do with it. When xFIP and wOBA become undervalued, then we can talk about Sabermetrics.
Point 4 – I don’t have much of a beef with this premise, but I think you’re discounting the idea that people might use the existing data in a new way to find something no one else sees. That’s how all statistical development has happened in the past, anyway. It’s not impossible that it could happen again.
“And since not one person has come up with a new metric that isn’t already listed on some Saber Rattling Website MONEYBALL is DEAD!” – This is your big finding? Moneyball, despite the fact that you clearly can’t accept that it’s merely the title of a book and has nothing to do with baseball or it’s philosophies, has been dead since 2004. People like me and Jessep and Donal and anyone who’s visited from AA have all been preaching this since it became a topic here. I even outlined it back in January. http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/01/ok-ill-bite.html. All the players with the highest OBP (at the time of the writing) were out of the A’s budget. OBP was no longer undervalued. Since 2004.
“But only if you are prepared to abandon all the prejudices that led to Sabers and are central to it’s philosophy…
Such as Counting a SacFLy as a PLUS not a MINUS event.”
That’s not central to sabermetrics at all. That’s got nothing to do with sabermetrics. Sac Fly’s count against OBP, which as we know, is not a sabermetrc stat. The reason it’s counted against OBP is because the better did not give himself up. He swung the bat in an effort to get a hit, and failed. A positive result of a negative action. It happens. But it wasn’t the batter’s intention to make an out.
“Such as taking into account how many of those OBs are scored and weighting heavier than a plain old OB”
What?
“By awarding those guys who DRIVE IN the runs regardless of their also making an out and weighting thier SUCCESS in driving in runs compared to their oppertunity!”
Those guys are rewarded. They get an RBI. And their success given their opportunities SHOULD be rewarded. That’s why RBI total is a terrible way to evaluate talent, because you can’t know whether the guy has the most opportunities or simple makes the most of his opportunities. OBI and OBI% are much clearer in showing who is actually GOOD at driving in runs. There was an article on that a few months back, I think. It was a good one. Are you aware of any recent articles on this website outlining OBI?
“And since you Saber Rattlers are also the BIGGEST SUPPORTERS of the Moneyball LIMITATION philosophy you will never succeed due to closed minds and no more EDGE because everyone KNOWS about you system you refuse to budge from and improve!”
You say this like it’s a negative. Are you telling me you have no desire to see the Mets gain any kind of competitive advantage. That’s what the book Moneyball is about, isn’t it? A team gaining a competitive advantage? How do you expect to gain a competitive advantage if you don’t use and explore ALL methods of analysis? You put yourself at a distinct DISadvantage if you ignore any type of analysis.
Your main problem is you mis-represent many things. Moneyball, sabermetrics, and the importance on OBP are the most glaring. When you mis-represent those things, your argument holds no water. You can’t pontificate the “drawbacks” of certain things when you don’t understand them. All your rantings show is that you have no idea what you’re ranting about.
He has no desire to see the Mets gain any sort of competitive advantage because he’s quite obviously not a Met fan. The way he writes about the Mets and about how “you have to spend money” points to the fact that he’s a Yankee fan.
Yeah cause I want to keep reyes and you don’t…You think letting reyes walk is a competitive advantage!
You think NOT SPENDING is a competitive advantage!
Yeah I point to the yankees…How many playoffs have they made since 1995?
What does that say about your idea of COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE?
Umm, not at all. I’m a huge Reyes fan and I’d be willing to give him a 6 year contract, if it came down to it.
But go ahead…paint me in a negative light with your biases.
HOW MUCH?
Funny that the link you posted seems to make my point doesn’t it?
THE SECRET IS OUT!
NO MORE UNDERVALUES, NO MORE EDGE!
As for the rest it has been disproven time and time again.
Have you ever read Bill James’ books?
Or just Moneyball?
You think Sabers=advanced statistical analysis but the society that adopted them adopted them based on Bill James’ bias toward OB!
And all their new ones are as much OB biased too!
Remember these ACCOMPILISHED WEIGHTING SYSTEM?
HR: 1.95
3B: 1.56
2B: 1.24
RBOE: .92
1B: .9
HBP: .75
NIBB:.72
Tell us all how OB BIAS did not creep into those weights?
Would you accept ANY METRIC that counted a SacFly as a positive?
Would you?
Even a BUNT?
Or do you consider them an OUT or EVIL INCARNATE and will never let any act that results in a an out be counted as a PLUS!
THIS is the BIAS in Sabermetrics!
IBB and HBP counted as batting accomplishments are CLASSIC EXAMPLE of UNEARNED accomplishments that ALL of your Sabermetrics count as plusses!
And you still NEVER PROVED OBP/SLG relates to RS better than anything!
What you did was show that something that happens most of the time relates to something that happens some of the time!
You have never once showed the minimum required numbers for OBP/SLG to get 1 RS!
DOES NOT EQUATE!
Your Correlation of OBP/SLG correlates no better than PA, Games Played, or showing up to the ballpark does!
All are JUST AS REQUIRED to score a run as OB does!
ALL when accelerated will accelerate the RS you can score!
You have related the MUNDANE ACT to the GOAL but have yet to prove how it can CAUSE the goal!
You have no proof despite asking plenty of times!
And the one time you tried to SHOW proof that proof was then used against you by showing how teams with higher OBP and SLG scored fewer runs than teams that were lower than them in those metrics!
Not even the proof you DID offer makes your case!
So your just yapping and flapping to keep your myth going and I have showed on numerous occasions using REAL DATA not some PHANTOM 30 Years of Research no one has ever seen to make my point!
You can’t deal with that then I suggest you go back to AA where the fish and audience is already brainwashed to believe whatever crap your feeding them!
WE ARE THINKERS HERE! We don’t guess, we don’t BELIEVE, we RESEARCH!
And our research shows what you say is pretty much crap!
“Tell us all how OB BIAS did not creep into those weights?” You prove how they did. Where’s the OB bias there? I see none at all. You’re claiming there is so you can be right, but there is none. Where is it?
“And you still NEVER PROVED OBP/SLG relates to RS better than anything!” I never said they relate better than anything. I said they relate better than any other indicator, or cause. And I have proved it, thousands of times, and so has MLB and the rankings every year. And you refuse to find some other indicator or cause of scoring runs that works better. You just lie and call RBI a CAUSE, when it’s the same RESULT of the same play. Actually, it’s BEHIND runs scored, because the run has to score FIRST for there to even be a thought of awarding someone an RBI.
Your hatred of sabermetrics because you can’t grasp the concept has caused you to invent theories that make you look right, regardless of whether your premise is correct.
Great comment.
YOUR LOVE of sabermetrics is why your closed minded, easily disproved and why you will never come up with the next UNDERVALUED metric!
Cause youtr as closed minded as the guys who used traditionals when Sabers were first introduced!
lIke I said your OBP?SLG correlates no better than PA, or showing up to the park!
All are just as required to score a run but don’t actually do anything to make it happen!
You create a RELATION based on COINCIDENCE not actual CAUSATION!
You do this hiding behind a scoring sheet and not by what actually happens on the field!
Which is why your closed mind refuses to open to other causations and events needed to score runs!
Because they don’t get scored as PLUSSES in your OB Biased Sabermetric view!
“YOUR LOVE of sabermetrics is why your closed minded, easily disproved and why you will never come up with the next UNDERVALUED metric!” It’s not my job to come up with an undervalued metric. Hell, I didn’t come up with the first one, or any of hte others that followed. Nor is sabermetrics responsible for finding undervalued metrics. This is again where you fail. The market determines what’s valued or undervalued, not sabermetrics.
“lIke I said your OBP?SLG correlates no better than PA, or showing up to the park!
All are just as required to score a run but don’t actually do anything to make it happen!
You create a RELATION based on COINCIDENCE not actual CAUSATION!
You do this hiding behind a scoring sheet and not by what actually happens on the field!” Lots of buzzwords so you look like you know what you’re talking about, but you use them all wrong. WHich is why YOU’RE always wrong.
On the contrary to EVERYTHING you said, my mind is VERY open. Which is why I allowed myself to research more on this sabermetric thing that helped teams to win SO MANY games 15 years ago. You’re the one who is stubbornly closed-minded and refuse to allow the fact that the stats created in the 1800′s by a cricket expert may not be the best stats to use in 21st century baseball.
You think sabermetrics is centered on OBP, which is false on so many levels, but you’re such a hypocrite because in order to prove it wrong, you take an RBI and twist it and lie about what it is, how it’s earned and what value it holds just to try and show it’s more important or better than OBP. And it’s just not true. Not even sort of true.
“the same RESULT of the same play”
Yes who gets the RBI and who gets the RS?
Same player?
When picking players who is the one who will CAUSE the run to score the guy with the RS who only score 2.4% of the time he gets on or the guy who drove him in and whose stat reflects the act that scores a run 100% of the time!
Remember it’s about player evaluation and your judging the guy who can’t make himself score as better than the guy who scored him!
They are the SAME ACT! Just as hitting the ball over the OF wall is the SAME ACT that causes the OB!
Yet you judge the OB more important than what was done in the Batters box!
You didn’t do enough research in that post – You only showed how much the top OBP players were being paid NOW, but you didn’t show how much they were paid in 2004 – You just assumed that now the high OBP players were paid more than they did in 04, without looking at how much they were paid then.
This is just another really dumb and pointless post aimed at riling up another flamewar over sabermetrics. This is so far beyond self-parody. Maybe this site’s slogan should be changed to “The Ultimate Baseball Site for Nonsensical Trolling on the Merits of Sabermetrics, Moneyball, and OBP”.
Well, if Joe actually read his own posting guidlines (he took the time to write them up and post them), there would be a few less people posting personal attacks!
TruFan, I gotta say… while I don’t like the jab at the site…. I totally agree.
It seems like every post these days is either “why I want to wake up next to sabermetrics” or “why I sabermetrics makes me hate myself”
I’m tired of it. Ignoring its value is ignorance, and trying to prove you’re smarter than the countless GM’s who employ somebody within their organization to study the data is just peeing up a flagpole.
trying to feed crap to others and they not wanting anything to do with it is ignorance?? you are a work of art you know… just because some ppl don’t buy into sabermetrics means they are ignorant, just that they have a different view, once in a while you should try respect someone else’s article the same way you scream ppl to do with the crap you post most of the time jesseP..
Funny but look at WHICH SIDE is the one saying they don’t want anything to do with a point that says something NEW must be created!
Hypocracy abounds with these folks Alex!
They would like to tell us we are CLOSED MINDED!
But this post I made shos full well that I am not closed minded about Statistical Analysis, Sabermetrics and their use, nor am I closed to NEW METRICS that do not conform to Bill James’ OB is GOLD and nothing else matters bias!
I am the one who suggested that Maybe RBI is better to find more RS than OBP/SLG. And their response? Well RBI DIRECTLY RELATES so it’s no good for increasing something DIRECTLY RELATED to scoring runs!
They would prefer to CLOSE THIER MINDS and demand something NOT DIRECTLY related to RS that only 2.4% of those events actually results in a run being scored where 100% of RBI results in a run being scored!
They try to say WE are the ones with the CLOSED MINDS!
But that argument went out of fashion and no longer applied as far back as when MONEYBALL and OBP as the undervalued metric no longer applied!
And THIS is the point of this post!
I’m not saying that only traditionals should be used!
THEY ARE saying Sabers muct only be used though!
WHO of the two has the CLOSED MIND?
Them or me?
This is why this article was posted!
To show them they are AS GUILTY of closed minds as they used to say to the traditionalists way back when Sabers were NEW!
are you still yelling?
Are you still avoiding the challenge?
Are you still hiding behind SUPPOSITION to avoid having to post facts to prove your point?
You seem to think there are UNDERVALUED STATS!
NAME THEM or admit there is none!
This challenge o yours is really lame
You’re turning into the crazy man on the side of the street screaming the sky is orange and no matter how hard I try to convince him the sky is blue, he still thinks its orange.
You don’t even seem to understand the word “undervalued”
Let me put this as clear as I can to you
You have NO IDEA what is or is not an undervalued stat in front offices across the country, because you’re not in those front offices.
You only KNOW Oakland felt OBP was under valued because its on paper. You have absolutely no idea what stats each team in 2011 value and do not value. None. Therefore neither you or I can accurately state which stats are over or under valued. Get it?
Get over yourself and move on.
No only your response to it was lame!
Guess you can’t name one which proves my point!
NONE EXISTS until someone creates a new one!
Yeah and scattered in between are the posts of WHY I DON’T WANT YTO SPEND MONEY!
Why OMAR was so awful for doing so
or WHY we should not sign someone because we need to take 12 years to rebuild the Minors!
Most authored by YOU Jess!
No True Fan it’s another post to show you Saber religionist types that your system is not all it’s cracked up to be, does not do what you THINK it does and while your side has attempted to say WE are the ones with CLOSED minds the truth of the matter is IT IS THE SABERATLLERS who have the closed mind!
They REFUSE to admit there ARE better Metrics to be had!
And if you would open your mind to that fact you might learn that no SYSTEM is perfect, they ALL have flaws! And if your intelligent and DO NOT BIAS your stat analysis to favor a pre-selected outcome you might get an even BETTER ANSWER than Bill James and Sabermetrics!
The main prob;lem with Sabermetrics and OBP in particular is it counts NON-ACCOMPLISHMENTS as ACCOMPLISHMENTS (RBOE, IBB, HBP), Counts PRODUCTIVE ACTS as NON-PRODUCTIVE ACTS (Sacrifices that score a run or move one over)
All because Bill James agenda was to prove OB is the BEST and making an OUT is pure EVIL!
Even if that out is the thing that scored you the winning run!
Sabermetrics was invented to tell you how useful OB was not how productive the BATTER HIMSELF was!
yet it is used as the comparator of Players for Aquisition!
Saber religionist types? This isn’t an all out Holy War…it’s baseball. You make it out like this is World War III.
Frankly, it’s not as important as you make it out to be.
HOW OLD ARE YOU?
And it seems to be a religion to you!
On the contrary, you seem to have an obsession with Moneyball.
HOW OLD ARE YOU?
Ageless.
More like EMBARASSED to say aren’t you?
he’s not the one ripping off his shirt like Hulk Hogan and challenging people to a no holds barred debate.
I am chalenging those who say your WRONG,,,but won’t prove it with any data to back them up!
You know like you have done!
The one time you ACTUALLY offered proof it made MY case not yours!
Haha, you seem more like a religionist zealot type yourself, preaching against the evil cult you call sabermetrics and obp (which are completely different things yet you make them out to be the same) and worshiping the almighty RBI. Too bad all of your points are wrong and uninformed.
Yeah what have I said against Sabermetrics other than it can no longer come up with the undervalued stat which seems to be correct since none of you sabers guys has even taken a stab at it other than SLG and BABIP which when looked at from a players perspective lists only the top paid players in the game, not a cheap player among them on the list!
BABIP? Really? You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Try defense, namely the 2008-2011 Rays UZR which is best in MLB.
Hey your side suggested BABIP not me!
Is UZR the undervalued stat?
If it is why did you list a TEAM and not a player?
Finding the undervalued stat is related to PLAYER AQUISITION not team success!
Are you suggesting that if we just focus on UZR when we select who to get we will get cheap players and recreate the edge Moneyball provided?
You know guys if the BEST DEFENSE you guys have is YOUR WRONG without a shred of proof to back it up you have lost the battle!
NAME THE UNDERVALUED STAT TO WIN!
SHOW the liost of cheap players who are high in that stat and show everyone how wrong I am!
Do you know what “undervalued” means?
DO YOU?
HOW OLD ARE YOU?
You don’t seem to understand that if we KNEW what the undervalued stat was, it wouldn’t really be undervalued. We’re writing on a message board…we don’t know what MLB GMs undervalue. Neither do you.
This little anti-sabermetrics witch hunt that you’re on has gotten really old fast.
Sure it would!
Because you claim Sabers can find it!
Oakland did!
So do what they did if you believe Sabers can find it!
So you admit ou don’t know what the undervalue is and that you CAN NOT FIND IT the way Oakland did!
So then you AGREE with me then because you admit you can’t do it and since you think so highly of yourself then NO ONE Can!
If what I said was wrong then you should be able to use Sabers to find the new UNDERVALUED METRIC!
Can you do that? If not then you should bow out until you CAN or find someone else who CAN prove what I said was wrong!
And if you admit your not SMART ENOUGH to do so (which EVERYONE here will believe) then you should stay out of arguments on topics your not qualified or smart enough to prove or disprove don’t you think?
Oakland did because THEY’RE A BASEBALL TEAM. I’m NOT A BASEBALL TEAM. You’re NOT A BASEBALL TEAM.
Talk about staying out of arguments you’re not qualified to be in…the only argument you’re qualified to be in is an argument over the tapioca pudding at the insane asylum’s cafeteria.
Oh really? So Oakland called every team and said Hey what stat are you ignoring?
Or did they do it as you suggest, They used Sabers (which you have access to) and then figured out what it was and went for it?
Being a baseball team has nothing to do with this!
It’s about can Sabers find the undervalue!
Apparently not because none of you have been able to use them to name one!
Can everybody just stop responding to Metsie on this? It’s old, and it’s getting ridiculous. Metsie thinks he’s smarter than everybody, lets move on.
I’m down with that.
Word, I’m done.
thanks Xtreem. He’s just gonna stomp his feet and yell “challenges” and then when answered say “you’re not answering!” I’ve never seen anything like it.
It’s such a waste of time, I’d rather argue with a 2 year old… at least you can occasionally get them to be quiet.
Yes it’s a waste of time because your putting forth a position thats wrong and can’t be proven!
Please tell us when you answered the challenge of what the undervalued stat is?
Thanks Who. Hopefully Donal and others can agree as well. I’m tired of seeing stomping and shouting on the right side panel.
Yes I guess I am…
Since I can make a point and back it up and all you guys can do is belittle me and not prove what I said was wrong!
I made this post to see if you guys can back up what you say about moneyball and sabers being able to find the undervaslued stat and you al FAILED that test!
Been doing the usual run around and change the subject, deride the poster but not the points he made all in an attempt to get away from the one solid truth!
What I said was QUITE TRUE!
Sabers can’t do it anymore because it was the SABERS THEMSELVES that were undervalued and now that the cat is out of the bag it can’t work in regards to moneyball!
If it can then show us what it says is undervalued today!
Thats really all it takes to prove me wrong!
Either your up to the challenge or not!
And if your not then it just goes to show that maybe your lack of expertise should be taken into account the next ime you suggest MONEYBALL TACTICS should be used or that Sabers can tell you everything you need to save money or get bang for the buck! Which you guys say means something different than SAVING MONEY!
I will take this as capitulation and failure to disprove what I said!
Thank you for finally admitting it!
Unfortunately, you’re just not smart enough to understand. I pity you, so I will stop talking to you after this comment.
Unfortunatly for you you can’t meet the challenge to prove me wrong so I can UNDERSTAND how it can be done!
Before anyone can understand how it is done you first have to show it can!
And all of you have failed in that regard!
BECASUE you don’t understand how Oakland did what they did!
I apparently do!