Oct
26
2011

Hot Stove Report: Pelfrey, Nathan, Shields, Darvish Updates

Joe Nathan RP - The Twins announced that they’ve declined the club option for $12.5MM on reliever Joe Nathan and will pay him a $2MM buyout instead. Nathan, who has been a rock solid closer the Twins, returned from 2010 Tommy John surgery this season and posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 48 appearances. Obviously, Nathan would seem like the perfect fit for us as he’s unlikely to get more than a one-year deal, and injury concerns will make him reasonably priced for teams who will be digging through the bargain bins. He still prefers to close.

Yu Darvish SP - Two sources familiar with Japanese baseball think the posting fee for Darvish will be nowhere near the $51 million the Sox put up for Daisuke Matsuzaka. “I think we may never see something that high again,’’ said one source. “But one could expect a posting fee in the high $20 millions.’’ It appears that the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, and Mariners will be among the active bidders. Sorry Mets fans – Only Lookie, No Touchie…

James Shields SP – Shields is a solid pitcher, he’s also young, and he’ll most likely be very available, which makes him a perfect fit for the Florida Marlins who could use another solid starter in their rotation. According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, The Fish may dangle Logan Morrison as part of any package. Hmm, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and James Shields, not bad.

Second Basemen – Tim Dierkes of MLBTR writes that there will be as many as six free agent second basemen that will likely be considered as starters: Kelly Johnson, Clint Barmes, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Jamey Carroll, and Nick Punto.  I’m not totally sold on the idea that the Mets are wholly committed to an in-house solution at second base, especially if Jose Reyes goes and Ruben Tejada has to slide over to shortstop.

Mike Pelfrey SP – Mike Swarz of MLBTR says that “accumulating innings gets you a big raise, even with a mediocre season.” To that end he projects that Mets starter Mike Pelfrey will get a $1.9MM raise to about $5.8MM for his 193 2/3 IP, despite a 4.74 ERA and a 7-13 record. That’s a whole lotta of money for a whole lotta mediocrity. I thought we were all about bang for the buck now?

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About the Author: Joe DeCaro

I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.

32 Comments + Add Comment

  • Mediocre…I wish Pelfrey was good enough to be mediocre.

  • I wouldn’t mind taking a flier on guys like Nathan or Lidge, provided they sign for deals like we gave Cap and Young last season.

    Throw one of them in with Beato, Parnell and Stinson and let them fight for the closer role.

    • I’m pulling for a dark horse that isn’t on the radar yet.

    • I would definitely try and sign both.Nathan is 2 years removed from TJ surgery and thats when those guys get their arm strength back after the 2nd year.Lidge has already said he would have no problem in a setup role and would be instant insurance and can even give Nathan a night off.

      Having 2 Closers is usually gold when it’s been done in the past.Except these are the Mets where nothing works out IE K-Rod an Putz.We sign a Masher in Bay for big bucks and he’s looked washed up.The Cards sign a washed up looking Berkman cheap and he starts mashing again.Oh the pain!

      • I would stay away from those guys. Lidge is going to be 35, and Nathan would be 37, and both have spent alot of time on the DL the last few years – I think it would be very risky for the Mets to count on those guys for next year.

        And I don’t think it’s worth taking that risk with Lidge and Nathan because there’s plenty of other safer options the Mets could sign, like Capps, Madson, papelbon, and Bell.

        • No relief pitcher is safe. They are very inconsistent. Otherwise, they’d be starters.

          Papplebon and Bell are going to get way more money and years than a 3 inning a week pitcher should make.

          Closer really isn’t that high on the list on concerns for next year. Or at least, it shouldn’t be.

          I’d rather roll the dice on some guys looking to prove themselves for one reason or another.

          • The pitchers I listed have been very consistent, and reliable for their entire careers.

            and closers should be high on the list on concerns for next year because we don’t have anybody.

            • No, they aren’t consistent.That is why they don’t start.

              And there’s no point in worrying about whose theme music to play in the 9th inning if you aren’t going to have that many leads to protect.

              • Yes they are, look it up.

    • I think Beato will be starting the year in Buffalo’s rotation. But i’d rather the Mets go after Broxton and Capps.

  • Regarding Mike Pelfrey, Joe said:
    I thought we were all about bang for the buck . . . .

    We are. The BANG comes when the batter swings!!! Mike gave up 220 hits, with 21 homers, 7 triples, and 37 doubles. Wait ’til they move the Citi fences in.

    • Leave Pelfrey alone. He can’t help it he’s a mediocre, 5 inning pitching, hand licking, ball balking, one pitch, 90mpr throwing, fly balling, Home Run giving of a sinker ball pitcher.

      I’m sure Bore-ass can turn that into three year, $30mil deal.

      I’d rather sign Cappy for half the price and get similar results. Cappy waits until the 5th inning to give up a bunch of runs…Pelf can’t seem to get out of the first before blowing the game.

      But give Mike a trophy, he tried hard and almost got to 200innings…sure it took him over 30 starts…but hey, half the time he ate up a couple of innings after giving the other team a 5 run head start.

      At least Cappy can blame his problems on past injuries, what’s Mike’s excuse?…Peterson isn’t around to baby him?

  • Let the Pelfrey go.

  • Pelfrey still has value. You keep harping on the Mets non-tendering him, why would they do that?

    • I imagine they will pay and trade him for a bad contract.

      • Why pay and trade him for a bad contract?

        I thought we wanted to avoid bad contracts?

        Let Mike walk. I’m sorry, but he’s not worth the money. Sandy can easily find someone cheaper that can give you similar numbers.

        (same goes for Angel “if I only had a brain” Pagan.)

        • My “bad” contract would be trade for Carlos Zambrano for a year. I would think if Cubs were going to trade him they would want minimal contract as they would have to pay at least difference. At end of year they are both free agents. I would rather have wacky Zambrano who could turn it around than Pelfrey.

    • Maybe because paying Pelfrey $6 mil for a 4.80 era in citifield is a totally bad idea???

  • Met fans attitude toward Big Pelf was quite different after the first half of 2010, when we all felt slighted that he did not receive an All Star nod.

    I think Pelfrey’s difficulties lie mostly in his wind-up, which was modified to give him better command within the strike zone. The straight knee-up and stride delivery provides absolutely no deception and likely deprives him of the additional available velocity that he needs to get more swings and misses.

    In other words, Pelf needs a higher leg lift and needs to keep closed more to increase his velocity. He also needs to get a higher release point to obtain better downward movement on his pitches.

    Its easy to criticize a player when he’s down. Just don’t be so apt to praise him when he does well if you did not support him when he was down.

    Are you true orange & blue?

    • Just a bit blue lately.

      • Well, I’m feeling a bit orange, being Halloween time and all. :)

    • Pelfrey doesn’t have a swing and miss pitch.He’s always had trouble putting hitters away.He lacks the mental toughness it takes to be a top pitcher.He belongs in a setting like KC with no pressure and no expectations.

      • Joe – You’re correct about Pelfrey’s current inability to put hitters away. When he threw from a higher arm slot, he had more down & in sink on his 2-seamer, which produced alot of ground balls. It’s a “heavy” pitch.

        He needs a cutter thrown from the same higher arm angle that breaks away from righties and he needs to vary the speed on both pitches, the 2-seamer and the cutter, if he wants to get swings & misses. There’s no doubt in my mind that he can accomplish this task.

        As for holding on runners, etc…, he’s a really, really big guy & its something that he can work on, but will never be a strength.

        I had the benefit of watching Pelfrey’s gem against the Angels this year. He’s a really good pitcher with a good mound presence. How soon we forget.

        I don’t know what the heck Dan Warthen is doing. Pelfrey could be in another eschelon entirely – he should be, but his mechanics have been so stripped down we’re seeing a facsimile of Mike Pelfrey & not the dominant righty we expect him to be.

        • warthen is worthless. The acid test to that theory will be if they dump Pelf, and he goes someplace where there is a PC that knows what they are doing (St. Louis?) and they make changes like this to revitilize him.

    • “Pelf needs a higher leg lift….”

      When Pelf was pitching in 2011, there were 31 attempts to steal. Only two runners were caught, resulting in a 6$ CS rate. A higher leg lift usually means less time for the catcher to throw the guy out. making it even more problematical. But a lot rests on the catchers and pitching coach

      In 2010, when Pelf was on the mound, 34% were CS. We really miss Barajas and Blanco behind the plate.

      • That’s a 6% CS rate in 2011.

      • I’ll gladly give up a few SBs in trade for a boatload fewer base runners.

    • The thing is, that while Pelf’s win/loss record took a hit this year, the rest of his numbers this year are right at his career totals. (W/L is not a great measure of a pitchers effectiveness)

      Sure, Pelf has had a increase in HRs this year from last, but he gave up 18 in 09, so it’s not like 21 this year is that surprising.

      I really can’t see Pelf ever turning it around.

      http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5203&position=P

  • Joe Nathan would be an excellent addition to the 2012 NY Met bullpen.

  • Forget Nathan. Joe D omitted one very important fact – that both the Twins and Nathan said they want to sign another deal after his option was declined.

    • He also said that he wants to be a closer. Not up on the Twins situation, but would he be a set up guy there or “the man”?

  • It’s like getting a raise for showing up to work and sucking at what you do. Nice.

NL East Standings

TeamWLPct.GB
Braves4228.600 -
Nationals3435.4937.5
Phillies3437.4798.5
Mets2540.38514.5
Marlins2247.31919.5

Last updated: 06/18/2013

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