22
2011
Hot Stove Report: C.J. Wilson Will Get $75MM, Wainwright’s Option Picked Up, Reyes To Nats Rumors
An article by 
C.J. Wilson
According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, one GM said he envisioned a $75 million, five-year deal for Rangers ace C.J. Wilson. “He has been a bomb in this postseason, but the laws of supply and demand still help”, he writes. One GM suggested Wilson would do better with a non-playoff team because of his better regular-season performance. Mets anyone? I’ve already shared my thoughts on Wilson a few times in the last few weeks. 1. He would instantly upgrade the Mets rotation. 2. He’ll hold down the forst until our pitching prospects are ready. 3. He will take the stress off a bullpen that got taxed thanks to five or six inning pitchers like Capuano, Gee, Pelfrey and Niese. 4. He won’t cost as much as a typical ace. 5. He probably won’t get more than a 4-year deal.
Jose Reyes
David Lennon of Newsday tweeted that Mets are very wary of the Washington Nationals as an up-and-coming team that will target shortstop Jose Reyes this offseason. He also says that two Mets players told him they wouldn’t be surprised to see Jose Reyes wind up with the Nats. Honestly, as I’ve said all along, I’m resigned to the fact that Jose Reyes has played his last game as a Met. The only thing I can hope for now is that he doesn’t sign with a team in the National League East or the New York Yankees.
That said, if the rumors are true there’s plenty of evidence that the Marlins will be interested in Reyes as the new star to go with their new park; the Phillies just cleared a ton of payroll and if they’re going to spend $100 million why not Reyes over Rollins; and the Nationals wouldn’t surprise me in the least as their revenues are very high and Reyes could make them a contender as their young phenoms all get ready to make their marks in the majors.
Adam Wainwright
The Cardinals will assume the two-year, $21 million option on starting pitcher Adam Wainwright, barring an unforeseen complication in his return from ligament replacement surgery in February, general manager John Mozeliak confirmed Thursday night. ”There is no reason for us not to assume it,” Mozeliak said. Wainwright, 29, finished second in the 2010 NL Cy Young balloting after finishing third in 2009. Too bad he’s off the market. I kind of tinkered with the idea of chasing Wainwright this offseason if he were to be available.
Yu Darvish
Tim Dierkes of MLBTR spoke to an agent who told him that it will cost $50 million in a posting bid and then another $75 million dollars in a five-year deal to sign the young Japanese phenom. That comes to about $125 million dollars, but of course this is all speculative. Darvish is 18-6 in 28 starts this season with a 1.44 ERA and a10.6 K/9 ratio in 232 innings pitched. In his last four seasons he has a 1.81 ERA, and in seven seasons in the NPB, he is 90-35 with a 2.05 ERA. Darvish has won 15 or more games in four of the last five seasons. Matt Cerrone wouldn’t touch him because there is no evidence it would be worth the risk and that he has already thrown 1,200 innings and is only 25. I’m not too worried about the innings Darvish has piled up. Those types of things become more of a concern for pitchers who don’t have a fluid arm motion with their delivery like Darvish who pitches the ball with such ease. Good examples of bad pitch mechanics or violent deliveries would include one time phenom Mark Prior, and Mets pitching prospects Jenrry Mejia and Steven Matz, both of whom are out after TJ surgery and less than 200 innings pitched.
David Wright
Troy Renck of the Denver Post says “No way the Rockies would trade multiple prospects for just one year of David Wright, but they will be willing to negotiate and as Joel Sherman reported today, the Mets are all ears. Renck adds that the Mets would likely want pitching and a center fielder for Wright, but that the Rockies will not move Dexter Fowler. He also says that Colorado will likely want Wright to extend his contract. Jon Heyman agrees with Sherman who said Mets can’t expect too much back for Wright, who makes $15 million a year and has slipped since the Mets moved to Citi Field. I think that if Alderson and Co. eventually do move Wright, it won’t happen this offseason. Instead look for Wright to re-gain some more value with the new dimensions at Citi Field which seem custom tailored for his swing, and then watch the rumor mill go wild beginning in June.
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About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 28 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 35 | .493 | 7.5 |
| Phillies | 34 | 37 | .479 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 40 | .385 | 14.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 47 | .319 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/18/2013
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For Reyes (and even CJ), with such a lack of players on the FA Market and the number of teams in need for said FA’s services, the amounts in both years and money is going to be silly. With the Marlins, Nats and Phils alone needing or wanting a SS… Yikes.
While Yu may be very good, I have severe reservations about him. To me, this is Dice-K part 2. Maybe 1 year of above average stats. Maybe 2. Then the league catches up him, as well as the workload, and we’ll see another overpaid & underperforming player from the Pacific Rim. Also, does the posting cost need to be paid upfront? If that is the case, no way the Mets are in on Yu.
Would you (the MMO readers) trade Wright for Pomeranz or the catching prospect straight up? Hopefully the lack of players on the Market (and 3B specifically) will play into upping Wright’s price. I still think he’ll not be moved until the following year. He’ll get a year of a smaller park to boost his numbers, get his option picked up and then moved in the offseason (with a team having a negotiating window for an extension, a la Santana) or moved at the trade deadline.
paid up front, and I agree, not happening from the Mets (and actually, I don’t see anyone going that high, but who the hell knows!)
Wright? Depends on how good and how close the prospects were. Keep in mind that there are no guarantees (and few damn near can’t miss guys). How close is that catcher?
I’m not sure on the catcher. Maybe knocking on the door or 1 year away? I know it wasn’t too far off.
Pomeranz is a dream.It’s not happening.They didn’t trade Ubaldo to get this kid so they could trade him for one year of Wright.The catcher Rosario is a possibility but I would want them to include the 3B Arenado in that deal and we can give them 72 hours to get an extension done if need be like we had with Johan.
Yu Darvish 125 Mil for 5 years?
thats 25 Mil a year and more than Reyes is likely to get despite having a MLB track record to rely on!
JUST SAY NO!
so the logic is, get a guy that can’t perform in the playoffs (big games), to upgrade the team to help get you back in the playoffs?
Must have been the GM of the atros
PERSONALLY I FAIL TO SEE ANY LOGICAL RATIONALE FOR LETTING REYES SLIP OUT OF OUR ROSTER.
FINANCIAL RISK? AS A PREVIOUSLY INJURED CONCERN, I BELIEVE ANY NEW CONTRACT WOULD BE INSURABLE MITIGATING THAT EXCUSE.
TOO MUCH LOST PRODUCTION DUE TO INJURY? IT’S SENSELESS TO SAY THAT 0% OF REYES PRODUCTIVITY IS PREFERRABLE TO 73%(HIS CAREER % OF POTENTIAL GAMES PLAYED IN) AS DIDN’T WE JUST SEE HIM WIN THE BATTING TITLE DESPITE 2 D/L STINTS?
IF HE CAN BE SO PRODUCTIVE IN HIS VERY FIRST YR OF PRIME PRODUCTIVITY; WHAT CAN BE EXPERCTED FROM THE REST OF HIS PRIME(29,30,31,32)?
ANYONE WHO FEARS “THE DISAPPOINTMENT OF HIS UNAVAILABILITY” SHOULD PARTICIPTE IN FAR LESS DEMANDING ENDEAVORS, LIKE TIDDLYWINKS OR BEER PONG JUST AS THERE IS “NO CRYING IN BASEBALL” THERE’S “NO GUARANTEES IN BASEBALL” EITHER.
JOSE REYES BRING THE MOST EXCITEMENT TO NY BASEBALL SINCE RICKEY DONNED PINSTRIPES OR JACKIE DANCED THE BASES IN BROOKLYN. IF LETTING HIM GO IS CONSIDERED RESOLVED BY THE TEJASDA OPTION, THAN WHY ISN’T HIS INJURY ABSENCES RESOLVED THE SAME WAY? LEG INJURIES GO HAND IN HAND WITH FIERY BASERUNNING. TOO FEW NYers REALIZE THAT THE TERM “REYES RUN” HAS BECOME A VIRULENT NL BASEBALL TERM WHEN SPEAKING OF THE METS BY OPPOSITION MEDIA COVERAGE
I FAIL TO SEE ANY LOGIC IN ALLOWING HIS DEPARTURE. IT CERTAINLY CAN’T BE ASSUMED THE $$$ DESIGNATED TO KEEP HIM WILL BE ALLOCATED TO OTHER NEEDS AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO BACK THAT CONCEPT UP
A SCENERIO IN WHICH WE TARGET FIELDER TO MOVE DAVIS TO RF & DUDA TO AAA IS STEEPED WITH PERIL AS U WILLINGLY WEAKEN 2 POSITIONS 1B,RF ADDING LITTLE OVER WHAT A CONMFORTABLE DAVIS @ 1B & IMPROVED DUDA IN RF COMBINED BRING SINCE FIELDER CHOOSES TO NEVER CHARGE BUNTS & DAVIS IS TOO CONCRETE FOOTED TO PATROL A VAST “MO ZONED” RF AS THE “ZONE’ IS RUMORED TO BE ONE OF THOSE JEFF ‘SIGNATURE’ FEATURES UNLIKELY LOST IN THE RETROFIT.
AS THE ENTIRE STADIUM WAS DESIGNED TO BENEFIT REYES’ ATTRIBUTES & THERE IS NO INDICATION OF LOSING THE ODD CARROM ANGLES & WIDE ALLEYS TO SUBTRACT THE STADIUMS MOST PRODUCTIVE ASSET(’11 WAS REYES’ VERY FIRST FULL CITI SEASON AS WELL AS HIS FIRST OF HIS PRIME & FIRST WITH HUDGENS) A CONFLUENCE THAT RESULTED IN “MAGICAL”, TRANSFORMATIVE OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION
AS IT APPEARS TEAM MNGT BELIEVES THE “KEEP REYES”, FERVOR HAS WEAKENED. IT SHOULD BE CRITICAL FOR HIS PROPONENTS TO ENSURE THEY KEEP ALDERSON,DiPODESTA, RICCIARDI AS WELL AS ALL THINGS WILPON EXTREMELY FEARFUL OF BACKLASH TO HIS ESCAPE ANYWHERE, LET ALONE AGAINST US 18X A YR
AS I’VE OPINED BEFORE, IT ISN’T DIFFICULT TO CONCEIVE THAT SOLELY ON HIS OWN REYES HAS PROVIDED AT LEAST 20 ADDITIONAL VICTORIES IN EVERY SEASON IN WHICH HE’S PLAYED A MINIMUM OF 100G. BTW, THAT’S > HALLADAY GUARANTEES.
REYES IS A UNIQUE BASEBALL ENTITY & COMPARING HIM IN ANY WAY TO AVERAGE PLAYERS RE. INJURY CONCERNS IS INAPPROPRIATE. THE RAREST ITEM IN BASEBALL IS A CLEAN GAMEWORN REYES UNI. OF WHICH FIELDER COULD FILL A CLOSET WITH MINIMALLY ‘DUSTY” ONES EVERY SEASON.
If Reyes is let go I will have to wonder who is calling the shots here…
Wilpon or Selig!
It would seem a bit odd that a team who plays in the biggest market would be cutting Payroll as if they lived in the smallest!
Even Wilpon knows that will fail in the end he has been here long enough to know!
Which leaves Selig trying to make points with the small market rowdies by having his friend make a small market team out of a BIG market franchise!
And it will work too!
He will make the Mets a small market team because the few fans who support Payroll purge do not think much of the guys we will have left and the rest of us will simply give up because we know there is no point in going until 2015 without Reyes and Wright!
even their new, lower payroll target would be in the top 10 in MLB. so no, they aren’t laying in the tampa/Marlins range here.
It also makes sense that a team in transition, still in the rebuild the foundation phase, should have a bit lower payroll. Unlike the Cubs, who are in worse shape with a higher one.
IN TODAY’S DAUILY SNOOZE, BITTER BILL PRICE OPIONED ON REYES
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/bitterbill/2011/10/where-will-jose-reyes-play-in-2012-the-nl-east-of-course
TO WHICJ I REMARKED TO FRIENDS…
ACTUALLY, I THINK THIS IS A VERY FAIR ASSESSMENT; HOWEVER, IF I WERE NYM GM WITH AN INTENTION TO MAKE A LEGIT OFFER, I WOULD BEGIN WITH A 5Y/110M & GET A COMMITMENT TO REVISIT BEFORE THEY SIGN ASNYWHERE ELSE. SHOULD HE GET A 7/150M LEGIT OFFER AS FEARED I’D COUNTER WITH OPTIONS OFF MY ORIGINAL & INCENTIVE CLAUSES THAT COULD COMPETE IF REYES IS SERIOUS ABOUT NY BEING CHOICE #1. FOR INSTANCE A 6th YR PLAYER OPTION @ 22M + A 7th YR MUTUAL @ 22M COULD MEAN AN OVERALL VALUE OF 7/154M; BUT ONLY GUARANTEEING THE FIRST 110M I INTENDED TO ALL ALONG.
AS TO HIS DISABLE LIST, INJURY ISSUE. IT IS AS I’VE STATED OFTEN AN ACCEPTABLE RISK WHENEVER DEALING WITH A POLAYER WITH HIS BASESTEALING SKILLS AS I’VE PROVEN WITH RICKEY, WILLS,ETC. COMPARISONS (BELOW).
TO ME IT’S A FALLATIOUS ARGUEMENT SIMPLY BECAUSE, IF, AS “DON’T RESIGN”-REYES FORCES INTEND, TEJADA @ SS IS YOUR ACCEPTABLE REPLACEMENT, THAN WHY ISN’T IT AN EQUALLY ACCEPTABLE CONSIDERATION TO FIELD TEJADA @ SS DURING THE 24% OF GAMES REYES HISTORICALLY MISSED TO INJURY(PLAYED 1,050G IN 8.5Y(1,377G), 1050/1377=76.25%**) IN HIS CAREER. AS A SUCCESS FORMULA,IMO, 76% OF REYES+24% OF TEJADA IS > THAN 100% TEJADA @ SS. THIS ISN’T AS IF THEY’LL BE A NEED TO ACQUIRE ROLLINS/FURCAL/CONZALES AS B/U ADDING MORE MILLIONS; BUT FOR THE NEXT 4 YRS TEJADA IS VERY AFFORDABLE @ LEAGUE MINIMUMS. SHOULD NEED ARISE THEERE’S A PLETHORA OF MIDDLE INFIELD TYPES ie VALDESPIN,HAVENS,FLORES PRESENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE FARM TO KEEP THE BACXKUP COSTS AT A COMPLETE MINIMUM FOR WHATEVER THE TERM OF CONTRACT DEVELOPS.
FINANCIAL LOSS? REDICULOUS WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF INJURY INSURANCE; SIMILARLY, THE MO VAUGHN CONTRACT WAS INSURED COVERING THE FINANCIAL LOSSES FOR 85%. MEANING, EVEN SHOULD AN ANOMALY YR LIKE ’09′s TOTALLY LOST SEASON, REOCCUR, THE 22M CREATES A MET LOSS OF ONLY $3,300,000)( AN AMOUNT LIKELY RECOVERD BY THE INCREASED REVENUE THE RETROFITTED ADDITIONAL SEATS BRING IN FOR A REYES’ TEAM IN FLUSHING.
** COMPARATIVE GAME PARTICIPATION RATES FOR TOP BASESTEALERS IN MLB
HENDERSON = 76.54%(25YRS)
RAINES = .70.20%(22YRS)
COLEMAN = 65.10%(13YRS)
FURCAL = 76.18(12YRS)
ROLLINS = 83.84%(9YRS)
REYES = 76.25%(8.5YRS)
WILLS = 85.63%(14YRS)
AS EXPECTED, REYES ABSENTEE RATE IS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF PLAYERS WITH SUPERIOR BASERUNNING SKILLS TO COMPARE HIM TO ANY GROUP INCLUDING A PREPONDERANCE OF STATION 2 STATION RUNNERS IS LUDICROUSLY UNFAIR.
Very salient points ’62. Could not agree more. Make a real solid 5 year offer add in all the other crap you need to. No trades, vesting options, club options, No type A arbitration offer ect. Player option I would use as a minimum guarantee for the 6th year. An easily beatable # (think 10 M) if completely healthy and still playing well but still a good chunk of change, fully guaranteed if he’s coming off a bad or injury plagued year or is even going to miss the year entirely due to surgery/rehab or something and can reestablish his value while making a fair chunk of change. His call. A minimum base that is entirely at his discretion.
In the offer you present that guarantees him 110 M over 5 and another 10 if he so chooses over 6 or he can cut his own FA deal with us or someone else at 33 which could easily be 3/30 M by 2017.
As for the running, SB totals aren’t the true measure anyway. I don’t want him grinding down. I don’t even want him picking up 3B w/2out. What I would like is him to pick better spots to steal in. More important ones. More quality, less quantity.
Your point about Tejada being thought of as OK for 162 vs. just 40 games is really the crux of the issue. Having both of them represent the best chance for us going forward. Tejada on his own is just that, OK, and if he goes down………forget about it. The quantity that we now have (finally) at 2B will be of no use at SS. Valdespin is a 2B, Tovar’s probably being drafted in the rule 5 as a back up MI, forget Turner/Havens/Murphy.
Pelfrey and Parnell to KC for Melky Cabrera is making the rounds. At first it sounds like a bad deal but the more I think about it the better it sounds
I wouldnt give up both pitchers, but would do a 141 for Melk with either.
Pelfrey and Parnell for Melky and a prospect would work for me. And I’m not talking a stud prospect, but someone that could be considered for a BP arm or something.
Melky fell apart in 2010 w/ the Braves. Anyone could have had him for nothing last year and as spotty as Pelfrey and Parnell have been Melky hasn’t been a consistent producer either.
I’d rather the virtually guaranteed 200 IP out of the Pelfrey rather than reaching further into AAA to cover another spot in the rotation with whoever we get to replace him and Parnell’s upside is still pretty good.
Selling low and buying high is what this team always does, then when guys come back to career norms we’ve wound up making yet another bad trade.
Agreed.
I already commented on Darvish on the other thread I think we need to keep an eye on him. I read on another site that he is currently the number one pitcher in the world and all the minor leagues that hasn’t pitched in the majors. It sounds like something we shouldnt entirely ignore.
ORIGINAL? WERE U & YOUR PAENTS LIVING IN JOAN PAYSON’S PURSE IN THE LATE 50s? SORR\Y, COULDN’T RESIST THE JAB; BUT U DO REALIZE DARVISH LIKELY IS A MULTIMILLION EXPENSE FOR MERE CURIOSITY(POSTING FEE) I SAY, LET HIM PASS AS NOT WORTH INVESTING TO SEE IF HIS GAME TRANSCENDS THE LARGER CIRCUMFRENCED BALL & SHORT BET GAME REST PERIODS. WE JUST LOST 2M+ FINDING OUT THE COMBO OF LARGER BALL & HIGHER VELOCITY ROBS IGGY’S BALL OF MOVEMENT IN THE ZONE THAT MADE HIM “ROCKETBOY” WE NEEDN’T EXPEND MORE TO CHANGE YU DARVISH INTO WHO DARVISH THE AFTEREFFECTS OF NOMO IS LITTERED WITH BROKEN , IMPERFECT ATTEMPTS TO REPLICATE. IT’S LIKELY MORE PROFITABLE FOR SOMEONE TO ATTEMPT TO REPLICATE VALENZUELA BY PAYING OLLIE PEREZ. AT LEAST THEY USE A “BIG BOY BALL” IN MEXICO. ON 4D REST NOT 7
Wright aint going anywhere .. no chance mets ponying up the $$ for Darvish.. The furthur away from the end of seson we get the more i feel like Reyes may be gone, hope im wrong ..cant wait for the new dimensions at Citi..would DEF be into that Melky trade, he’s one CF i picked out that could fit in here, performed decently under Yankee pressure and has stepped up his game since leaving, he’d be welcome here imo
I think if the FO really wants to maximize their return on Wright, they should exercise his option now and hope he takes advantage of the changes to Citi Field.