26
2011
Did Mets Dodge A Bullet By Signing Bay Instead Of Lackey?
An article by Craig Lerner
Short answer? No.
On Monday, Joe McDonald of ESPN, reported that Red Sox starting pitcher John Lackey will miss most or all of the 2012 season after deciding to undergo Tommy John surgery on his ailing elbow. The elbow has been an issue for Lackey since the spring, but he and the team decided that some rest and rehab would improve his condition. It didn’t. Instead it resulted in one of the worst performances by a starting pitcher in decades. Tough break for Lackey, hopefully the TJ surgery works and he’ll be back on a mound soon.
Who knew that the news would spark a few, “I’m so glad the Mets didn’t sign Lackey” posts. Umm, really?
Are we forgetting who we did sign instead of Lackey that offseason? Apparently so because neither of the two Mets posts I read yesterday and today even mentioned his name. Want a hint? It was reported that he would rather play in Beirut than sign with the Mets.
Yes, that’s right, it’s Jason Bay.
Most of us remember that the Mets were intently pursuing both Lackey and Bay during that fateful offseason following the 2009 regular season. Both players were coming off solid seasons, but their former teams, the Angels and Red Sox, each sent out smoke signals that there were injury concerns and discontinued their pursuits to try and re-sign them.
The Red Sox ended up signing Lackey to a 5-year/$82.5M deal, while the Mets gave Bay a 4-year/$66M with a $17M option that vests with 600 PAs in 2013 or 500 PAs in both 2012, 2013. The Mets also included a full no-trade clause.
Considering how attainable the option is for Bay, they essentially got similar five-year deals.
I don’t think I need to adorn this post with how atrocious both Bay and Lackey have been since signing their new deals. Suffice it to say they both sucked big time. Suffice it to say they both are huge busts.
So how can any Met fan have the audacity to point fingers at Lackey and the Red Sox, and doing so while sitting on their own pile of poop?
Matt Cerrone of MetsBlog fame, ended his Lackey post with the always popular catch-all, “In other words, it’s not how much you spend… it’s how you spend it.”
I’ll add my own: It’s now what you say, it’s how you say it.
The last fanbase on earth to be laughing at or making light of the John Lackey deal and his impending TJ surgery, is most certainly the New York Mets fanbase. The Mets have become legendary when it comes to terrible free agent deals.
How can you say the Mets were lucky or dodged a bullet on Lackey, fresh off a season when the team paid Oliver Perez $12 million dollars this season to stay away from Flushing, and $18 million for a black hole in left field?
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Don’t know what is the big deal if someone says that looking how things turned out for Lackey the Mets dodged a bullet but whatever. Who knows how things would of unfolded had he signed with the Mets and played in the NL but if Lackey was going to have a similar performance as the one in Boston then well, the Mets dodged a bullet.
well, if you dodge a bullet but get hit by a train doing it, you still dodged the bullet.
2011 could have seen us paying Lackey, Perez, Santana and Zito
Haha hilarious. That is true, I guess.
Not to mention Bay in that post is plain dumb, but it is what it is. I didn’t know Bay had a full no-trade clause. I keep hearing and reading about trying to trade Bay this offseason if there is a team dumb enough, but I would imagine like most players with no-trade clauses, the player would want the option year to become guaranteed. That mean’s we’re stuck with Bay for three more years.
depends where they were trying to send him, and how bad he wanted to get out.
especially if it is pretty clear that the option year isn’t going to be vesting anyway 9and since he only is viable as a platoon guy now, it really shouldn’t)
Here’s why I’m glad the Mets have Jason Bay rather than Lackey.
“2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14″
— Showing me the Red Sox had the future vision to see a potential problem and not handcuff themselves. I honestly do not think I could have trusted the Mets to do that.
“Boston Red Sox pitcher John Lackey has filed to divorce his wife, Krista … who is in the middle of battling breast cancer. Lackey filed on August 30, according to court docs in Texas, claiming “the marriage has become insupportable because of discord or conflict of personalities.” Krista and John got married in November, 2008. Sources close to the family tell TMZ … Krista underwent a double mastectomy back in March and underwent chemo as recently as June. The divorce petition says John and Krista had a prenup. It also says Lackey has “separate property” he wants to keep for himself.”
—- Now his private life is his private life and I am certain there is more to the story. But the fact remains that this paints him as a bad guy and Boston is a big media market but this story in NY would have been a PR nightmare. And truth be told, I don’t care if there is a reason or not… a good guy can hold out and be supportive until the battle is completed.
“WHDH-TV in Boston reported Tuesday that two team employees said they had seen the now-infamous trio of Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Jon Lester drinking beer inside the Red Sox dugout on multiple occasions. According to the employees, the three pitchers would leave the dugout as early as the sixth inning to fill cups of Bud Light in the clubhouse and return to drink the beer while watching the game. One of the employees said the pitchers looked “bored on nights they weren’t pitching and this is how they entertained themselves.”
— There’s not a lot of good associated with John Lackey lately. And frankly, I don’t think this is AS big of a deal as its made out to be but it’s just another report of a selfish player.
Jason Bay has been a total disaster to watch at the plate. No denying that. But he’s never come off as a bad guy, never seemed to be a problem in the clubhouse, and never seemed to make excuses.
So I’ll take Jason Bay and his struggles over John Lackey and his, any day.
I don’t think Lackey was the other choice that year it was really between Bay and Holliday and then went with Bay because he was more of a pull hitter.
position wise yes but it was clear Holliday was staying with STL before Bay signed, it just took Holliday longer to sign the dotted line
Remember Holliday got 7 years/$120M (2010-16), plus 2017 option
Bay got 4 years/$66M (2010-13), plus 2014 option
Largely different contracts & commitments. Lackey’s financial commitment would have been about the same
It was the only position we were after (right or wrong as that may be!)
We had a ton of money already invested in pitching at the time!
If Lackey was the best Pitching option (I would have gone after Halladay but that’s me!) then there was no smart move to be made that year!
But the media got onto Omar to get someone as they will in a year or two with Sandy!
And once they start whatever long term plan anyone thinks Sandy is going to implement will be as cut short as Omar’s Buy early while I build the MiLs plan was!
Sandy if he doesn’t buy one big name in the next three years will never live to see year 5!
wow, i rather have jason bay disapear at this point, he’s been nonexistant anyways, i see him booo’ed out of here by next year, i can’t believe ppl still like and defend bay, just because he gets hot for a week he turn the corner, or because he hustle is not right to boo him.. another player who by failing to at least avg expectation makes minaya looks even more horrible as a GM. thank god for duda, tejada and gee.
Did Mets Dodge A Bullet By Signing Bay Instead Of Lackey?
This was the question, it’s not about defending Bay, but continue with your twisting of words, you are indeed good at something.
listen stalker, did i say the article writer defended jason bay?? ppl does and there have been many articles here when he’s been hot for a week about him turning the corner etc.. shut up ok
Stalker – hahahahahahahahha
No, I won’t shut up.
LOLOLOLOLOLOL I love when Alex68 tells people to shut up. That’s just his own way of conceding that his argument is bunk.
Um, strange post. Who would you rather be saddled with Bay or Lackey. I say I’d rather have Bay. If Bay goes all year without a hit the team is less effected then a pitcher marching out every fifth day and giving up 5 runs in four innings. On the other hand lackey is going to be gone next year so that is a bonus on Bostons part, especially if they managed to get insurance on his contract. I still say Bay is a better terrible aquisition. I also see Bay as more likely to turn it arouns and at least break even as far as WAR.
I would rather have Bay than Lackey. Imagine all the bad press the Mets would have gotten during Lackey’s divorce and drinking in the clubhouse and just plain handling the press horribly. Lackey left his wife while she had cancer, wow that would have been bad with the NYC press. Lackey flipped out at the press because they splurged about his stupidity with his divorce and the fact he is a crappy pitcher. If he had been in NYC it would have looked so bad for the Mets, who already have enough bad press. Bay might not be good but at least he can handle the press a little better. Also, Lackey is going to miss an entire season. That is worse than Bay sucking. Its not great having Bay…BUT it could be much much worse with Lackey. Thats the difference.
Bay’s residual value is best in a platoon situation: Here’s his splits. Take note of his work against lefties:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=424726#sectionType=splitsCareer&statType=1&season=2011&gameType='R‘
A good player for a third of the time is better than an underachieving players all of the time. Perhaps he could platoon with Kirk Niewenhuis, who could be brought along on the ML Roster without the pressure and expectation that comes along with being a starter. Bay’s got a really good temperment and would probably be a good guy to brink Cpt. Kirk along.
If you can recall, the Mets in the 1980′s thrived with platoon situations in the outfield.
Kirk plus Bay = @ 16.4 million. Bottom line is that we need more production than what Bay is providing on a full time basis. An effective platoon with Kirk might be an interim solution.
I have been beating the “bay needs to be in a platoon” drum for a while now. A few folks here are adament that it won’t happen, but that does not change the fact that it should happen.
And, it should be in RF so that Duda can take his D over to LF.
not sure if a prospect would step up in ST to win the other half of the platoon (Kirk and F Mart would be the only logical choices), and Kirk certainly won’t be ready, and who the hell knows with Fernando.
So, get a LH hitter with big splits to offset Bay. 2 flawed parts could make 1 productive OF
Well Any it comes down to mindset!
I agree with what you say because I value the money less than the field!
The mistake of paying a guy too much is small. Happens because Humans are not creatures of consistency!
The Mistake is PLAYING him because of how much he got paid and not just admitting the mistake and moving on to the next guy in the plan!
Yankees did just that with Knoblauch did they not?
He wasn’t getting it done and they dumped him!
Didn’t care about the money!
Same thing should happen with Bay!
Sit him on the bench until he plays his way back into the lineup!
Or ship him off for trade fodder and eat the wasted money because it’s LESS of a waste OFF the 25 Man Roster than it is ON the 25 man roster and losing a potentially productive roster spot!
Platooning Bay is really the only answer and platooning has a few built in advantages. Say Duda and Bay platooned, Duda’s starting. Chances are good the opposing manager doesn’t bring in the LHP or if he does Bay steps up. Now he does have to come through in some of those situations but if he can it won’t be a total loss of a roster spot.
I don’t think Bay will start out platooning but by June I expect to see more of his AB’s against RHP going to others.
Very encouraging seeing the SMART managers like LaRussa and Washington dissing Moneyball and OBP.
That’s is so promising that maybe this CRAP, and that’s what it is – CRAP will die a slow death as time goes on
Tony LaRussa slams the concept of OBP and Ron Washington alludes the best thing about Moneyball was the movie:
http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111026&content_id=25800046&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&partnerId=aw-9198462220220718502-996
VERY encouraging to see this.
It’s mildly funny that you’re calling Ron Washington a smart baseball manager when the book on him is that he is not very game savvy but his players absolutely adore him. Washington is not an X’s and O’s guy. In fact he and LaRussa couldn’t be more different.
You also do not seem to grasp the fact that realistically NO manager should “like” the concepts of moneyball because it doesn’t get them the highest paid/best players.
Why do you think Art Howe managed the As? Because he was a great manager? I think we all found out that wasn’t totally true…
The main focus of TEACHING a skill of getting on base in the minors is not a moneyball thing or an OBP thing. It’s a teaching a hitter to be a hitter thing. Recognition of pitches and strike zone management, because a young minor leaguer will just go up there and hack away.
So Alderson when with Oakland would want his minor leaguers to learn plate discipline. Is that so bad?
Teams don’t go out and cross off every stat except OBP and then make decisions. Beane used the OBP scale because the high priced guys were the ones with the high stats that everybody focused on. So he had limited budget so he focused on something they weren’t focusing on. Why is that so bad?
Bayonne, I saw you said this in another post but it was so jam packed with replies
“It’s unbelievable, Now the saber nuts are attacking Tony LaRussa for dismissing OBP. They just can’t handle the fact their beliefs are being shot down more and more by the most respected people in baseball. Including BOTH World Series managers. So Tony LaRussa is wrong now – incredible. Absolutely incredible.”
So can I ask a question?
Will you go on record as to say you believe batting the pitcher 8th in an NL game is the best strategy?
According to Sabermetrics no because it doesn’t really matter where the weak batter is the results are he STILL has to hit, where the out occurrs doesn’t really matter!
If the bases were not cleared by the time the 8th hitting spot comes up no reason to think the pitcher batting one spot later is going to change any of that!
The KEY position is in front of the Pitcher and clearing him no matter where in the linup it occurs!
He’s gotta bat at some point and by batting him 8th you can put another speedy guy in the 9th spot to have two leadoff type hitters back to back.
It depends on the makeup of your lineup but where the EASY OUT is placed doesn’t really matter much.
Put him in the cleanup spot and he would be even MORE useful bunting runners over than he is in the 9th where most of those runners should have been cleared by then!
No, according to most sabermetric thinking, you bat him as low as possible so he’ll get the fewest PAs. You put your best hitters up top because they will get the most PAs and give you the best chance at scoring the most runs possible.
Of course, line up optimization isn’t really that big a deal. The difference between the best and worst line up is maybe 2 wins a season.
Wrong again!
The REASON sabers says to bat him earlier is BECAUSE you are more likely to pull him for a pinch hitter during the game (decreased AB) and if so better to have that pinch hitter hit EARLIER so he can drive in RS opportunities that are left over and won’t exist if he bats 9th!
But I guess you skipped that chapter!
No, the 9th spot in the batting order gets the fewest PAs, no matter who is in there. There is something like 16 PA difference for each spot you move up in the order.
Besides, pinch hitters aren’t really good hitters, otherwise they would be starters.
Also, what if a run scoring chance happens in the first inning with his spot coming up? Do you pull your starter then?
You put your best hitters up early so they can get the most PAs and can take advantage of each other’s production.
You accept the fact that your pitcher is there to pitch and not hit.
Pinch Hitters are better than Pitchers though aren’t they?
And they are GOOD HITTERS just not good Fielders in most cases!
But then again what the hell do you know about anything you even called the guy who made your OWN argument a know nothing!
I got my answer
Bayonne Mets Fan: i don’t like batting the pitcher 8th
jessep: why not Bayonne?
jessep: I don’t either but I wonder if we agree as to why?
Bayonne Mets Fan: it gives him more times AB
Bayonne Mets Fan: the closer you are to the top of the order the more frequent your chances are to hit
Bayonne Mets Fan: I also like the pitcher hitting 9th because of the chances of him sacrificing a runner to 2B with top of order coming up
So apparently we’re only going to do cartwheels about his quotes yestrday. We’re going toignore the fact we fundamentally disagree with him on the way he formulates a batting order.
Funny, this quote keeps popping up in my head “So Tony LaRussa is wrong now – incredible. Absolutely incredible.”
Have a great day.
Are you some type of IDIOT MAN???
Are you that STUPID?
Because i like something a person does you’re supposed to like EVERYTHING THEY DO? Are you kidding me? You’re going to these lengths for that?
And you’re supposed to be college educated YOU JERK!
You deserve to be called names for pulling a stunt like this.
I liked Collins but don’t like everything he does. Anyway can say that about any Manager or GM..or ANYTHING in life.
You are really a piece of work. Spoken like a TRUE individual that has never played any sport in his entire life
You tried to set me up, i answered the question from an HONEST baseball standpoint and you wind up making yourself look like the instigating JACKASS Maniac says you are…and it’s TRUE
you are an IDIOT. It’s as simple as that. Those are 2 entirely different issues.
You’re a sniveling little coward who’s never played a sport in his life, always the last kid picked and…and i don’t know what the hell you are…but you sure as hell dont’ come across as college educated.
You’re a disgrace and should not be a writer on this site.
I won’t comment on Xtreem but as far as Donal is concerned…
“How come if somebody like Donal or Xtreem disagree with LaRussa,they get attacked and scoffed at because the great Tony LaRussa has spoken”
No they get attacked for saying the guy knows nothing and then repeats what he said as proof that he was wrong!
“doesn’t mean people like Donal don’t have the right to disagree with him simply because of who he is. ”
But he only disagreed with LaRussa for ONE post where he said he knows nothing and then spit out his reasons WHY LaRussa was wrong which pretty much praphrased exactly what laRussa said!
He has a right to disagree with LaRussa but not say Larussa is WRONG what is correct is what LaRussa said!
“why does everything have to get so personal with you”
Because you Donal and WHO MAKE it personal almost from the get go!
Your first line is always something aboput the poster not the point!
And most of us are tired of it!
So we are giving it back and that is what caused this personal attack flurry we have been talking about here!
I tell you what You get your side to stop and I’ll do what I can to get those on the other side to stop.
You game?
Or are you happier just letting one side beat up on the poster while trying to restrain the other?
Bayonne: So what you’re saying is it is possible in this universe that Tony LaRussa could be, I don’t know… wrong?
How come if somebody like Donal or Xtreem disagree with LaRussa, they get attacked and scoffed at because the great Tony LaRussa has spoken.
Yet you’re allowed to disagree with LaRussa on his methods of building a lineup?
And I’m not trying to make you look dumb, stupid, or even wrong.
What I’m trying to do is show you that just because LaRussa said it, doesn’t mean people like Donal don’t have the right to disagree with him simply because of who he is.
Hey you disagree with LaRussa, nobody is saying you don’t have the right to do so are they? So why is it so absurd for Donal and Xtreem to disagree on his statements?
Bayonne, why does everything have to get so personal with you? I’m not trying to fight with you. I’m trying to SHOW you that everybody in the sport has a different view. You did cartwheels over the fact LaRussa kind of agrees with you, and you threw it in everybody’s face. I think you posted it oon 2 or 3 blogs.
Then when people question that quote you scoff and act as though it’s true because LaRussa said so. And anybody who disagrees with that point should not be listened to.
But then you yourself disagree with LaRussa on another subject. So, why is that fair? How come you are allowed to disagree with LaRussa, but Donal and Xtreem are not?
Don’t be mad simply because I proved a very valid point to you that not everything LaRussa says is right. It’s okay to read something and go “good point.”
Jessep, I just want to make it clear I don’t COMPLETELY disagree with LaRussa. His premise isn’t wrong. If you rely too heavily on any one thing, it’s not good, no matter what it is. If I was one of his peers, I might be a little put off by the fact that he clearly thinks some of us in the game don’t understand where one starts and the other ends, but that’s for them to work out.
But his premise isn’t wrong, it just has nothing to do with OBP specifically. Allow me to demonstrate.
“Batting average is one of the most dangerous concepts of the last seven, eight years because it forces some executives and coaches and players to think that it’s all about swinging at everything to try and get hits…”
Or
“Home runs is one of the most dangerous concepts of the last seven, eight years because it forces some executives and coaches and players to think that it’s all about swinging from the heels and for the fences to try and hit it out…”
Now isn’t that stupid? Yes. But is it wrong? No. Over-reliance on any one thing is never good, and that’s what he was getting at. It had nothing to do with putting down OBP or sabermetrics as some would love it to be. They twist our words a lot, seems they can twist LaRussa’s, too.
Really. The only reason OBP was mentioned at all is because the article was about the movie. That’s why it came up. You ask LaRussa out of the blue in an empty room about what stats he thinks are bad, he probably doesn’t even entertain the thought of OBP.
I’m with you Xtreem. See my most recent blog posting. I think what happened was people read LaRussa’s statement and did cartwheels without actually thinking about what he said compared to what others are suggesting.
I’m still waiting for someone to point out where I said LaRussa knows nothing.
When he said something incorrect about valuing OBP?
When I said he was over managing his pitchers? Hate to tell you, but I am so not alone in that opinion. Plenty of players/managers/mainstream journalists say the same thing.
Does that mean I think he knows nothing or is a horrible manager? No. Not at all.
He said one goofy thing in an interview. Big deal.
And the actual in-game stuff is such a small part of being a manager. Outside of looking out for players’ health, what is he doing? Calling defensive alignments? Veteran players should be able to do that. Even if they can’t, he has a coaching staff for a reason.
That’s why it is so easy for him to over manage.
The real part of being a manager comes before and after the game. Dealing with the big egos, the press, monitoring injuries, keeping in touch with the farm system, going over game tapes and scouting reports of other teams, dealing with the FO, scheduling practices, doing media events etc etc
From all reports, LaRussa excels at that stuff. Especially with the crap that surrounded the team this year.
So, no, I’m not saying LaRussa knows nothing or that he’s a bad manager. I’m saying there are 2 instances that he messed up.
Here Donal Your Hero TangoTiger provided the information you need to go hide and lick your EXPOSURE wounds!
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/pitcher_batting_8th/
See you when you get your self esteem back!
My hero? Really?
And…what exactly do you think he is saying in there? It’s not what you think.
Why don’t you TRANSLATE this for us so there is no more argument here and you can go lick your wounds….
“In my Markov tests in The Book, putting the pitcher 9th or 7th was breakeven, with 8th being the optimal spot, but on the order of 2-3 runs or so.”
Why don’t you post the whole thing?
Bayonne, I patiently await the answer please