3
2011
As Brewers Take 2-0 Lead In NLDS, GM Melvin Comes Down Hard On Sabermetrics
An article by 
As the Brewers find themselves with a 2-0 lead in the NLDS and on the verge of advancing to the NLCS, consider these comments General Manager Doug Melvin made two weeks ago regarding sabermetrics.
“I think there’s a point where people are looking to find the new stat. It’s like going into a science lab and looking for the new experiment. I don’t think there’s any perfect model that you can find based on strictly statistics.”
Melvin uses some stats to make player personnel decision but believes that most of the new stats can be misleading.
“Because the conditions are never the same in the games. The fields are never the same, ballpark effects, injuries. There are certain things I look at as far as statistics, but there’s a number of them where I don’t think there’s enough proof yet that they’re rock-solid and this is the way to go.”
When asked specifically about on-base percentage, Melvin had the following to say:
“When you’re talking on base percentage, .280 to .320 sounds like a huge difference. 28 percent to 32 percent. That’s four times more on base per 100 at-bats. So you get a guy who goes up there looking for walks. He might get four more walks than the guy who swings the bat four times.”
He further explains why he’d rather have the player who swings four times over the player who looks for walks. “He gets twice as many doubles as the guy who’s looking for walks. He puts himself in scoring position, moves runners over. Makes contact, creating a chances a defender could make an error. Only four times more over 100 at bats? You gotta be real careful looking at what else the guy is doing.”
Melvin does admit using certain metrics and refrained from saying which ones he uses but did add, “There are so many out there (sabermetric stats) that I know there were a few decisions this year that if I had made off of metrics we wouldn’t be where we are today.”
Melvin had a lot more to say to FOX Sports’ Mark Concannon, and talks about the pitfalls of using advanced metrics to predict performance, putting too much stock in minor league stats, and losing sight of important things like the players makeup, physical skills and even good old-fashioned luck.
He also says all these new stats are great for fantasy league players, but that he’s not running a fantasy team. Ultimately, he would love to see a televised debate pitting the saber people on one side versus the scouting people on the other.
Pretty wild stuff… The Brewers are one win away from sweeping the Divisional Series and facing the winner of Phillies/Cards series for the National League pennant and a trip to the World Series. Have at it…
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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“Melvin does admit using certain metrics”
That is it in a nutshell. It is not about all or nothing it is about finding the best of both worlds that works best for said individual.
I think he’s misinterpreting the whole thing about walks. Walks in and of themselves are better than what 95% of players batting averages would be if they swung at those balls but that’s not the real story.
Ted Williams has said many many times that the most important part of being a good hitter is swinging at good pitches. I repeat, THE MOST IMPORTANT PART! TED WILLIAMS! Not Michael Kay or Mike Francesca, TED ****** WILLIAMS. It’s not hard to understand that if you let bad pitches go your going to walk more often. The walks are just a by product of not swinging at balls which most hitters cannot hit for a high average on.
If you do have a guy on your team that’s actually looking for a walk(s) that guy needs to be removed from your lineup or team but it’s important to know that pitchers cannot throw strikes on demand. They go into funks as well as hitters. Pitchers also throw balls on purpose…..all the time. The more of them you swing at, the more of them your going to get.
Situation:
Runner on 2nd and 3rd. No Out!
Walk better than a swing?
Swing can:
SacFly – RBI
GO – Runner scores – RBI
Single – Both runners score TWO RBI
Double – Both Runners Score TWO RBI RISP
Triple – Both Runners Score TWO RBI RISP 90 feet away!
HR – Bases Clear 3 RBI
Is a walk better than a swing in that situation?
Next Situation.
Runner on 2nd No Outs!
Walk better than a swing?
Swing can get you
Sac Fly – Advance the runner
Single – Runner on first and 3rd Possible score and RBI
double – run scores RBI RISP
triple – Ru Scored RBI RISP 90 feet away
HR – You get the routine by now…
Lets say he walks…Sets up DP even TP and a FC to any base but home!
Easy inning ender!
Is a walk always better than a swing? NOT REALLY!
in certain cases, you want a guy who gets a walk instead of a strikeout with man on 3rd and no outs..
ALEX, MY GOD, LAD, I BELIEVE YOU’VE GOT IT! IT’S REALLY NOT SO MUCH A MATTER OF HOW THE HIGHER OBP WAS ACHIEVED BUT THAT IT “WAS” ACHIEVED, PERIOD. BEING “ON BASE” INSTEAD OF “ON PINE”, SITTING AFTER MAKING AN OUT, SURELY THE HOW TOs COME TO PLAY WHEN DECIDING BETWEEN 2 WITH NEAR EXACT OBP; BUT LET’S REALLY FACE THE FACT THAT FOR TEAMS LOOKING TO ACHIEVE THE MOST PRODUCTION FROM THE LEAST FINANCIAL INVESTMENT THE DETAILS OF WALKS Vs HITS MAKING UP THE OBP COMES IN A DISTANT SECOND TO WHICH ONE SIGNS FOR LESS. THIS ISN’T A FORMULA USED WHEN CHOOSING BETWEEN A PUJOLS & A FIELDER; BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY A HAIRSTON OR A CAIRO. IN WHICH CASE THE LIKELY EFFECT ON THE ENTIRE 162 IS MINIMAL AT BEST.
“THE HIGHER OBP WAS ACHIEVED”
Was it achieved or given?
Does the batter achieve on a HBP?
Does the batter achieve the IBB?
Are both of those something the Batter actually made happen?
This is KEY!
Not all OBPs are achievements of the Batter and unless you have another stat that tells you the percentage of the percentage that actually is Batter accomplishment you don’t know if the batter is really any good! It also doesn’t take into account other accomplishments such as sac fly RBI!
BA will tell you these things and OBP will always be higher than BA with the exception of a guy with a ton of Sac Flys!
It makes absolutely no difference what so ever HOW the base was achieved, just the mere fact that it was achieved is all that counts toward the only thing that matters. Winning the game.
Pitchers hit batters unintentionally quite often
Pitchers also walk hitters unintentionally quite often
Pitchers lose the strike zone quite often
Pitchers miss quite often
Pitchers throw balls ON PURPOSE quite often
Who’s achievement/non achievement is totally irrelevant but is it a lack of skill to recognize an 0-2 curve is going to bounce in front of the plate? A 3-1 slider on the outside corner is either ball 4 or a pitch you can’t do anything with?
Save your swings for pitches you can do something with. Most hitters hit under .200 on balls with very few extra base hits.
This is a good analysis. “Working” the pitcher is overrated. Swinging at strikes and laying off balls isnt.
“It makes absolutely no difference what so ever HOW the base was achieved”
Sure it does! A hit scores a runner on base and HBP, IBB even a plain old BB does not!
Unless the bases are loaded! NLY case where they get the job done!
“in certain cases, you want a guy who gets a walk instead of a strikeout with man on 3rd and no outs..”
And in EVERY CASE you would rather he got a hit though wouldn’t you?
that is just simple situational hitting. And one of the rare cases where an out can be better than getting on base.
But, it does not change the fact that in the overwhelming number of cases, a walk is better than an out.
And no one ever said that walks were the end all be all (and remember, hits count toward OBP too!)
the simplest example to prove the point is probably a guy with a full count, and pitcher throws a FB up in his eyes. A hacker hacks, and Ks. A guy with discipline sees a pitch he can’t do anything with, and takes his walk.
“And no one ever said that walks were the end all be all (and remember, hits count toward OBP too!)”
Yes and so does HBP which is basically means your giving a batter a GOOD JOB SON for something the pitcher did!
That and the IBB is really my biggest issue with using OBP to judge a player.
Now you said a walk is better than an out.
But a hit is better than a walk! not just in SOME situations but ALL situations.
If you obsess on the lesser accomplishment then you are not coaching to do the BETTER ACT and MOST they can do!
“Is a walk always better than a swing.”
Has anyone ever in the entire history of talking and writing about baseball ever, even just once, suggested that a walk is ALWAYS better than a swing? If there has been please let us know about it. Details. who, where, when ect. If there has never been someone who has stated that a “walk is ALWAYS better than a swing,” then why would you even ask the question?
Anyone with even a single functioning brain cell already knows that a “walk is not always better than a swing.” Everyone also knows that a swing is not always better than a take. As baseball fans half a dozen instances spring to mind.
We are already aware that there are instances in which you want your hitter swinging. Many many many instances. Most instances, but most certainly not ALL instances.
I have yet to recall ever hearing someone tell me that “A walk is ALWAYS better than a swing.” Please share with me who told you this misinformation Metsie.
“Ted Williams has said many many times that the most important part of being a good hitter is swinging at good pitches”
Right like 3-0, 3-1 fat middle of the plate fastballs, not taking it in hopes the guy misses as is the case these days thanks to OBP obsession!
How many times have you seen a guy take that pitch and then walk afterward (or worse!)
Left unsaid would be not swinging at bad pitches, obviously.
By the way were you aware that OB has actually been dropping?
Yes because teams are being built via OBP and ignoring the BA and as a result Pitchers are figuring out that if you throw strikes at high OBP lower BA guys you get them out and nullify what it was that the GM thought was going to be a plus from that batter!
It’s all about point counterpoint.
Tanks were invented to beat infantry, Infantry was then equipped and taught to beat tanks, now you can’t use a tank without infantry to protect it from the thing it was invented to defeat!
You can’t ignore BA in favor of OB. OB is primarilly about BA, like about 80%.
Ask Xtreem and Donal if thats actually true?
Not in their world!
Bill James says BA is useless because it doesn’t take into account walks and HBP!
Now it may be usless if your more concerened with HBP and walks than hitting but if your looking for the best hitters then you need to look at BA and can ignore the OBP which is always going to be higher except in cases of SacFly where runs are scoring so doesn’t matter!
Jobe got done one way or the other! It is key to the goal of winning!
“Is a walk better than a swing in that situation?”
I notice “three missed swings at unhittable pitches” was missing there
Does the K erase the baserunner?
NOPE!
it does if there are 2 outs!! ☺
It decreases the chances of those runners scoring, significantly.
A walk actually increases the chances of not only those runners scoring, but more runs as well.
No it doesn’t…the next batter has just as much chance to drive in those runs as the guy who struck out!
Only in a 2 out situation does it matter!
It does in fact reduce the chances of those runners scoring.
In case you didn’t know, you only get 3 outs per inning. Burning one in any situation decreases the chances of a run scoring.
Got PROOF or is this just another Typical Donal ASSumption?
Jesse you need proof that a batter has just as much of a chance to drive in a run with two outs as he has with 1?
Same chances of making an out!
Same chances of getting a hit!
No matter how many outs on the scoreboard are!
Metsie, you need proof that a team only gets 3 outs per inning and that the more outs you have per inning decreases your chances of scoring more runs?
Or if there is 1 out and a runner on 3rd. Now that next batter up has no change at a sac fly.
And with 1 out runner on 3rd and 1st just as much chance for a DP as well…Whats your point?
Yes MNJ unfortunatly we have an uninformed few who have related and placed importance on some metrics that don’t actually tell you what they have been led to believe…
I don’t know why they belive this either it’s because of Moneyball or something tango (who is notriously OB Biased in all his metrics) but the truth is someone brainwashed a lot of people into thinking OBP is important and BA is irrelevant when it’s the BA that usually drives in the runs even if the AB is not an OB and OBP does not!
If a guy has a low BA then it doesn’t matter what his OBP is! If his OBP is high it’s due to walks, If it’s low then your going to pass ANYWAY! He can’t will himself to continue to walk without compliance by the pitcher!
OBP will never be lower than BA unless the guy has a boatload of SacFlys which are either moving the runner or scoring them!
So OBP is a useless stat that doesn’t tell you anything you didn’t already know from his BA and can only serve to make bad BA players look better than they actually are!
OBP tells you a lot about the guy. Like, how many of his ABs where he doesn’t get a hit he still gets on base, as opposed to making an out.
Yeah the guy got hit by pitch 20 times in 100 PA, Got 10 hits
BA=.100 OBP=.300
Does OBP tell you about the guy or the pitchers he faced?
BA would be closer to .125, actually. And a .300 OBP is nothing to write home about. And 100 PAs is barely a month for a starting position player. what have you been told about sample sizes?
Scale it up to 500 PA!
Did anything change? NOPE!
So the idiot again makes a meaningless point because he can’t deal with the fact of what someone said was true!
OBP makes a bad player look much better than he actually is!
If he’s carrying a .125/.300/whatever for 300 or so PAs, most people will agree he shouldn’t get to 500 PAs.
Seriously, how many starting position players carried a .125 BA and a .300 OBP during a full season? Even catchers and cartwheeling short stops are expected to get above the Mendoza line.
You’re inventing implausible scenarios to support your weak position.
Another meaningless post that goes terribly off subject because the poster can’t deal with the fact of what was said was true!
OBP said a player was better than his BA would suggest!
All because he counts HBP as something the batter does well!
BA said the player was worse than OBP would suggest.
Of course, the player is pretty subpar no matter which number you use in your wildly unrealistic scenario.
agree with Agee here.
If a guy goes all castillo and refuses to swing the bat, trying for a walk and nothing else, he is going to be pretty much useless. And not around long.
So the point of upping your OBP is not giving up doubles for walks. It is giving up outs for walks, and that means don’t swing at crap out of the strike zone that you have a very low chance of getting a hit on. And that is the reason for plate discipline being beneficial. If you let the pitcher dig a hole (pulling a pelf, nibbling out of the zone) and get into a hitters count, then you have a much better change of getting a hitters pitch in the zone that you can crush.
Yes, you can be too patient, and there is a balance.
anyway, OBP is an old fashioned counting stat, just like BA. Not a sabermetric stat. Sabermetrics is the voodoo of trying to take those counting stats and translating them into a predictor something useful (runs, wins or outs on defense). And sure, you can certainly question those and want to see some proof.
you also can’t say that a connection doesn’t exist just because cause/effect does not happen 100% of the time.
Even the big saber supporters (theo epstien say) know and acknowledge that it is only part of the picture, and you still have to scout, look at intangibles, build a team with roles defined, etc.
Agree completely. Scouting is the lifeblood of the game. Always has been, always will be. It starts with the ability to play at a high level, then it becomes approach. Those guys with big ability that don’t make it can always be traced to approach, on the field anyway off is a different matter.
The best approach in the world doesn’t mean anything with the ability.
The question is what in the OBP tells you that it was an OUT he traded in for an OB and how many doubles he gave away for a walk instead?
If you get good BA then you don’t have to worry about his OBP it will be higher than his BA! And you will know roughly that the high BA will do many of the things that drive in runs that a walk does not!
How many guys would have much better averages if they didn’t sit there and take a 3-0 fastball down the middle of the plate and eventually walking than if they hit the fat pitch they didn’t crush because they were more concerned with seeing more pitches than they were with hitting them!
OBP has changed the way batters approach. They no longer wait on hitters counts and become hitters! They take those pitches that are LIKELY and are strikes because they are being told to get the OBP up and decide to take a pitch looking for the walk on 3-0 instead of the fat strike!
Disagree. On 3-0 many hitters look for a FB in a particular spot and take if it’s not there. Set up for middle in, take it if it’s middle out. Just because someone takes on 3-0 doesn’t mean they weren’t prepared to swing, ready to swing and wanted to swing. 3-0 is just a great pitch to sit on exactly what you want, if it’s not there you do it on 3-1 albeit in a slightly more open minded mood. Not all 3-0 takes are because guys are looking for walks. Sure leading off an inning, goes without saying, pitcher having difficulty with his control your not going to help him are you? get ball 3 with a 2-0 count are you swinging at it? Only if your a knucklehead. 3-0 takes for younger hitters are often called from the bench anyway and 3-0 is not automatically “right down Broadway” every single time either. The guys that put 3-0 right down Broadway most of the time are the guys you find hanging around AAA.
Murphy is a very good example of what I was talking about. He’s a guy who never swings on 3-0. Ever. 16 PA that concluded on the 3-0 pitch all were walks. 16 BB’s. Six of them intentional but 10 of them he took and walked.
Do you think Murphy wasn’t prepared to swing on 3-0? Didn’t want to swing on 3-0? Was giving the walk every possible chance? How do you know this to be true? How can you say with any authority that Murphy is not just being selective there? Cause 3-1 is a totally different animal. That’s where he does his best work. Does the most damage.
3-0 is where a hitter can MOST afford to be selective. Being over anxious on 3-0 is when hitters squander the gift they’ve been given. Just because they take on 3-0 doesn’t mean their looking to walk.
Aren’t you contradictng yourself and making my pint for me here?
“Murphy is a very good example of what I was talking about. He’s a guy who never swings on 3-0. Ever. 16 PA that concluded on the 3-0 pitch all were walks. 16 BB’s. Six of them intentional but 10 of them he took and walked.”
It’s funny to see that the two top teams in the NL aren’t into sabermetrics at all, lol.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/2018/do-phillies-ignore-sabermetrics
And now, we have the Brewers….
I thought only the “smart” GM’s, and the best teams in the league used sabermetrics…..lol.
Vinny: A “smart” GM is one who uses many tools, and doesn’t stick to just 1 method of evaluation.
Here you go http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=3746814&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fblog%3fname%3dolney_buster%26id%3d3746814
“Pat Gillick used statistics as one tool, one part of the evaluation of players, while maintaining a strong belief in the core value of having a staff of scouts adept at seeing strengths and weaknesses in players, regardless of their numbers, and he never formally embraced the use of sabermetrics the way the Red Sox have. But Ruben Amaro Jr., who replaced Gillick as the Phillies’ GM after the World Series, said on Thursday evening that he is thinking about hiring someone for statistical analysis, on the Phillies’ players and on opposing players.
“It would give us another piece of information to use,” said Amaro. “Frankly, it would not be an end-all, just another piece of information to consider.”
If Amaro makes this move, that person may also be used for contract analysis, as well.
________
Everybody is different. I don’t think many people here will tell you they want their favorite team run by numbers. I think what they will say is that good scouting +good stat analysis could foster positive results. If you cover your eyes and ears to data that COULD be half of the solution then you’re not doing a good job.
If you focus on 1 way to do things an that was is proving to not exactly work here, trying something new isn’t the worst thing in the world. And frankly, should be embraced.
Well I don’t care what tools Alderson uses but he better do better than:
Taylor Tankersley
Taylor Bucholz
Brad Emaus
Boof Bonser
Chin Lung Hu
Chris Young
DJ Carassco – for 2 years!!
Pedro Beato
That is just awful. AWFUL!. Maybe he should use NO TOOLS and try being familiar with the players to start with.
Vinny B says:
October 1, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Harang, Wang, Millwood, Vogelsong, Colon, Garica, Bedard, Choate, Coffey, Jaun Cruz, Dotel, Qualls, Saito, Sherrill, Koji Uheara, Dan Wheeler, Kotchman, Bloomquist, Andruw Jones, Melky Caberera, and finally….Jeff Francoeur.
All are around the same price as the guys Bayonne listed, and all played a lot better.
Maybe Vinny B should be the GM because he’s SMART and I really don’t care what “tools” he uses. We’re not talking about home improvement here, we’re talking about TEAM IMPROVEMENT.
A list like that could be made after ever season. Note the word AFTER. A list like this could be prepared in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 or any other year.
Not that anyone here should be expected to make better suggestions beforehand than a GM but many of these guys were never mentioned BEFORE the fact.
I don’t recall hearing ANYONE talking about Voglesong, Uhera, Sherrill (with a 2010 6.69 ERA), Melky, Andruw Jones or wanting Francouer back. What I do recall reading here was all the complaints about injured pitchers being signed. Guys like Wang (11 starts), Millwood (9 starts), Colon (who didn’t pitch in 2010 at all), Juan Cruz (who pitched 5 innings in 2010)
Is that what your saying now? That we should have signed more injured pitchers?
LOL!
And it’s pure fantasy to suggest that others on this list cost the same as the guys we signed. Dotel got 3.5M, Qualls 2.5 M, Saito 1.75 M, Wheeler 3 M + vesting option. Uhera 3M. Those figures are not even remotely close to the same.
We signed guys to minor league contracts in order to add depth and options. Some guys wouldn’t even consider signing minor league contracts.
Some of these guys signed within weeks of Alderson being hired.
And Kotchman and Bloomquist? Why?
Funny too how Garland wasn’t mentioned. He was big topic of conversation around here this past off season. Got 5 M (+ vesting option) He made all of 9 starts. Dodgers even admitted they knew he was hurt when they signed him.
Garcia and the Mets had burned their bridges back in 2009 anyway. Bedard resigned with Seattle a month after Alderson was hired. Harang stated himself he wanted to pitch at home for SD while his wife was having twins. Choate was offered a contract, chose a two year deal from Florida over our one year offer. Should we have given him the two years instead of Carrasco? You bet. Hang your 2nd guess on that one and Coffey too I suppose although I don’t recall anyone ever mentioning his name.
I wrote that because somebody asked “what players were available that signed for around the same amount of money that played better?”
and that was the answer.
Of course.
But you think that guy is gonna look at something and understand it’s context? Of course not.
But many of those guys signed for a lot more money.
None of them signed minor league deals either like Harris, Hairston and Bonser did.
Some no doubt didn’t even want to come here. Some did better elsewhere than they would have here. I’m looking at you Mr. Jones (13 HR’s in a third of a season at Citi Field?) C’mon.
The question that should really be asked is how come this team has to sign 13 or so free agents every off season?
That’s what I’d like to know.
http://www.talkingchop.com/
Not really, Carrasco went for 2.5 million, and somebody pointed out the other day Capunao is going to go all the way up to 4 million.
All the guys i listed were no more than 2 years and no more than 5 million….and I do think a few of them signed minor league deals.
A Smart GM is one who uses the RIGHT tool to find p[recisely what he is looking for!
A Smart GM doesn’t just assume if I get high OBP_SLG I will score more runs!
When did I say that you should only focus on one way of doing things? This was just a response what we were arguing about during last offseason. Some people on here were saying only the smart GM’s were really into sabermetrics.
And that’s not true at all.
Oh and Amaro never hired that guy he was thinking about hiring, because that was written in 08, and in the post I linked from last year, the AGM said they don’t have a stats guy, and aren’t a statiscally driven orginazation….so it sounds like he didn’t hire that guy.
Even if they did hire “someone” it wouldn’t change their philosophy anyway. and by the way, Omar had “someone” too, so does that make him a saber GM?
Joe I absoloutly love this piece coming after my charts on OBP!
What he is basically saying is I want these guys to drive in runs not worry about thier walks and OBP!
Swing the ball with men on base as they can only move when the ball is in play!
It underlines part of what I was saying it is what you do with the BAT that drives in the runs not the OB!
What you did with the bat is rewarded with an RBI!
The bat has to be swung except in the case of the bases being loaded to get an RBI!
I actually had this post and Melvins comments sitting in our post queue in draft form for 2 weeks I was waiting to be sure they advanced to post season first and then post it, but it was a happy coincidence. Timing is everything.
I’m glad Vinnie posted the same sentiments from Phillies as well!
I saw an interview on SNY during the nwinter meetings where Manuel pretty much said the same things.
They rely on their scouts and look more for makeup than numbers.
By getting the good makeup they know the numbers will follow when put together into a group!
I personally see no problem looking at numbers in cases where players scout similar and you want to look for tie breakers, but to use them as empircal evidence of what your going to get you have to look at numbers that precidely tell you what that is!
OBP simply does not do that in regards to what a player himself has accomplished!
If it was adjusted to only count BBs not IBB and hBP it might be better but then again I say BA will tell you how much a player will do HIMSELF and the OBP will be better than that in every case except a guy who is driving in a ton of runs on Sacrifices!
So, if the Brewers didn’t make the post season, everything he said is untrue?
perfect example, a guy on the mets goes 1-4 and a walk. 2 of the 5 at bats he came with men on bases and failed miserable to drive in a run, as a fan the least of my worries is that is OBP for the day is .400. i care about the fact he FAILED miserably to drive in potential runs. F*** SABERMETRICS & SABERHEADS!!!!!
It’s really funny the people that hate sabermetrics the most constantly point to one AB by Wright with Murphy on 3B to illustrate his lack of clutch, insisting that he should have taken on 3-1 in that situation.
first of all, STFU, second of all if you don’t know again, shut up, he swung at 3 straight pitches, 1 up the middle, a bad one for a foul, then a HORRENDOUS ONE FOR A STRIKE OUT!!!!!
You STFU. Is that all YOU can add to this website? It’s like Jr. High School in here.
The Wright/Alderson/Sabermetric triathealon haters all point to how Wright should have TAKEN, then they go on to complain about anyone else taking.
SMH
Come on alex, you know that only I have the power to silence anyone in this universe. I have not asked you to join me to rule it. Leave t agee alone, the force is strong with him. Take a deep breath and just make points without feeling the need to beat them into anyone’s submission.
t agee – Hang in there.
will do. is frustrating to establish any type of conv with that guy, he’s as fake as they come, second guesser to the fullest and to top it all, he loves the atlanta braves and their chokers studs!
Taking on 3-1 wouldn’t have scored Murphy either!
Did they win or lose?
That would be my main concern.
LOL
Bob Melvin refuted a bunch of things no one who supports using advanced stats has ever actually said.
People misunderstand, read into it what they choose, and over react.
Gee, never saw this before.
so wait, to use one of your favorite things to say : “yeah, what does melvin know about baseball” right?? F*** SABERMETRCIS AND SABERHEADS!!!!!!!
I’m fairly willing to concede Melvin knows more about being a GM than I or anyone on this board ever will. If for no other reason than he actually has had the job.
How on earth does that change any of what I said?
You can hate sabermetrics, that’s fine, but why hate just regular normal fans that like it? It’s like hating people who prefer hard boiled eggs to soft boiled.
There is no reason to hate sabermetrics anymore than you would hate a hammer for not being able to drive in a screw properly!
Statistical analysis isn’t bad it’s the bias used to create the analysis and the misuse of stats to tell a story they do not tell that is the thing to dislike!
And other ignore the facts when presented because it doesn’t jive with their false beliefs!
And then they make fan posts about them.
Yeah well too bad you haven’t figured out how to put two thoughts together, commit them to text and get your great philosophy posted in your own post!
All you do is snipe on everyone else’s intelligent postings and try to debunk them in favor of your ignorant ideology regarding OBP!
“Yeah well too bad you haven’t figured out how to put two thoughts together, commit them to text and get your great philosophy posted in your own post!”
Or I am too lazy to do so.
“All you do is snipe on everyone else’s intelligent postings”
I leave intelligent postings alone.
“your ignorant ideology regarding OBP”
Which would be…
Lazy? Not too lazy to make up nonsense…
So that can’t be it…must be INCAPABILITY!
Since you don’t seem too lazy to post crap on a minute to minute basis!
Also can we chill out on Melvin being some end all be all of how to run a team?
In 9 years as GM he’s made it to the playoffs twice and has had 3 teams over .500. He hasn’t exactly proven to be this amazing team architect.
His average full season as Brewers GM is 72-90.
so NOW is ok to pull out gm’s record??? how about sandy’s overall record the last 7 years as gm???????
68-94
51-63
67-77
78-84
65-97
77-85 WITH METS.
stfu!!!!!!!!!!
Istill like how we ignore his time in San Diego running the team. It’s very convenient how ignoring 2005-2009 fits an argument.
I’m not comparing Alderson to Melvin. I’m saying Melvin hasn’t exactly wow’d us as a GM has he? 2008 and 2011 are his only seasons worth mentioning in his entire career as a GM. So I’m not going to read quotes from a guy who hasn’t proven long term success as holding much merit.
We ignore his time in SD because Kevin Towers was the GM.
No you ignore his time in SD because it doesn’t fit your argument.
So let me ask you this
Do you believe Nolan Ryan has nothing to do with Texas’ success? Taking nothing away from Daniels, but are you going to sit there and tell me Ryan has absolutely nothing to do with it?
When a team has a baseball guy to be there CEO they aren’t doing it because he’s good as makign sure skyboxes are kept up.
he took the team to 2 straight playoffs season, winning nothing of course, then ruined them ever since… they haven’t won nothing, and other than last year they’ve SUCKED.
who are you talking about so poetically alex?
sandy alderson in his time in san diego, since you wanna give him props for being the president i am telling you what happened after that.. then he bolted, then came back to save the wilpon’s franchiSe by rid of contracts and sign a bunch of low risk high rewards players to control payroll… you know, a moneyball move!
Nope, it’s because he wasn’t the guy making all the decisions
JESS, UNWITTINGLY YOU’VE HIGH;LIGHTED WHAT I PERVEIVE AS THE “EVILEST EFFECT.OF NEIGHBORING NYY” AS U DENIGRATE 2 POSTSEASON APPEARNCE IN A GM’s TENURE. U SHOYULD ASK YOURSELF OF THE 30 PEOPLE WHO HAVE RESIDED IN GM CHAIRS DURING THOSE SAME YEARS HOW MANY HAVE EXCEEDED THAT ACCOMPLISHMENT? BEING SITUATED, AS WE ARE IN THE EAST COAST CORRIDOR BETWEEN NY & BOS, OUR NOTIONS OF MINIMUM ACCPTABLE GOALS GET DISTORTED BY OUR PROXIMITY TO THIS FEUD THAT DEFIES LOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS.
he took over a team that lost over 100 games, and now has made them into one the best teams in the league. He built a terrific core of young players, and made some really good trades like for Sabathia, Grenkie, Marcum, and K-rod.
He turned the worst team in the league into one of the BEST….that’s pretty good if you ask me.
And why do we have to “chill out” when a non saber GM has success? When you guys go crazy if a saber GM does good, like the A’s? If one of those teams do good, we never hear the end of it, but when a team like the Brewers does good we can’t even talk about it?
What a double standard.
Vinny: So now you’re now telling me that 3 seasons over .500 and 2 playoff appearances in 9 years is worth the same merit as 8 straight years over .500 and 5 playoff appearances during that time?
I don’t think Beane did a great job from 99-06 because I like numbers. I think he did a great job because he did. Ignoring it jsut make you look like you have an agenda.
Melvin’s 9 years in Milwaukee to this point do not even come close to as good as Beane’s first 8 in Oakland. If Milwaukee wins it all, yes great job… but to this point, he’s done nothing as a GM to make me think reading his quotes disproves everything others say.
No I’m not saying that,
I’m saying that it’s strange that when a saber GM does good, we never hear the end of it, but when a non saber guy does good we can’t eve talk about it at all.
Its strange the when a “saber GM” (whatever that is) does good and we mention it, we get a chorus of “I thought this was a Mets site”.
when a supposedly “non saber guy” does good, he’s lauded as the prime example of a GM.
can you please provide us where does the article writer uses the word “prime example?? all we say is that saberticians and saberheads haven’t won nothing, and more often than not if the team makes the playoffs, look overmatch!!!!!!!!
Not in the the article, but you and others who cry “this is a Mets site” are using Melvin as the apex example.
just like you said krod’s 88 save percentage with the mets was terrible yet denied it afterwards????? yet kimbrel is the best closer in the game, he had a 85%… double standard and buttlicking much?!>?!>
“just like you said krod’s 88 save percentage with the mets was terrible yet denied it afterwards?????”
I didn’t say it was terrible. I said and still say Rodriguez was average as a closer.
I also continue to say that closers at absolute best are a flashy accessory for playoff bound teams.
“yet kimbrel is the best closer in the game, he had a 85%… double standard and buttlicking much?!>?!>”
Did I ever declare anyone the best closer in the game? What do I constantly say about closers?
I’m of the belief that the concept of a 9th inning closer is actually detrimental to winning during the regular season.
donal, you’ll always denied that, jesseP said kimbrel is the best closer in the game. based on idk what exactly. also, your take on closers is idiotic as well..
I’m only responsible for what I say.
“also, your take on closers is idiotic as well..”
and verifiable.
Why are we talking about another team’s General Manager?
Ya, I thought the was a Mets fansite?
Funny how that actually never happend.
Again, I think there is a quest to prove that people don’t se any statistical analysis so because Melvin said what he said we’re now claiming he is proving a sabermetric GM wrong.
Do you want to know what the FIRST part of the quote is which is not used in the article?
“It depends on how you use it,” Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said. “I do use certain statistical guidelines in making decisions.”
and also
“I do use certain metrics,” Melvin said. “It’s a part of my decision-making, and I don’t want to divulge which ones I use, but there are so many out there that I know there were a few decisions this year that if I had made off of metrics we wouldn’t be where we are today.”
http://www.foxsportswisconsin.com/09/15/11/Melvin-Sabermetrics-a-bit-misleading/landing_brewers.html?blockID=564701
I know what he said, you don’t have to tell me.
And you got it backwards, people are on a quest to prove that using sabermetrics is the best way to run a franchise – they talk about oakland, Boston, ect, and how it’s worked for them.
So, since they want tp play that game, then I’ll do the SAME THING. I’ll talk about the Brewers and the Phillies, and THEIR success.
Why can they talk about boston and Oakland’s success, but I can’t talk about the Phillies are Brewers success???????
You’re going to talk about the Brewers’ success?
There’s a short conversation.
Phillies and the Brewers are the two best teams in the NL.
is funny donal, you were drooling about the braves along with jesseP and the frontrunner aggeeee,yet in the past 4 years brewers have 2 playoffs aPP and the braves 1, yet back in july they were the second best team in the league behind the phillies.. how’d that work out??
you guys were so pathetic that after the braves choked it up most of you’s were no where to be found, as if the choke job had personally affected you. is embarrassing!!!
“is funny donal, you were drooling about the braves along with jesseP and the frontrunner aggeeee”
Was I? Really? Or did I simply acknowledge they have a more productive system than the Mets right now?
“yet in the past 4 years brewers have 2 playoffs aPP and the braves 1, yet back in july they were the second best team in the league behind the phillies.. how’d that work out??”
You need a recap? The Braves’ pitching burned out and the Brewers stayed red hot.
“you guys were so pathetic that after the braves choked it up most of you’s were no where to be found, as if the choke job had personally affected you. is embarrassing!!!”
So, do you ever try and state something true?
more productive system?? what the hell does that even mean?!??
the braves pitching burned out? yeah, because the offenseive players from the productive system didn’t hit!!
yes, you and the other losers were MIA for around 2 days or so AFTER the braves collapse. as if you were affected by this, is embarrassing to say the least
Did anybody else on MMO post something on Doug Melvin already? Did I miss something?
‘‘It’s a delicate balance,’’ San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean, speaking before the Cubs’ 5-2 victory Tuesday, said of the trend to lean more heavily on sabermetrics as a scouting and evaluation tool than on skill sets and personality traits. ‘‘There’s certainly a time and place for it, and you have to check off that box.
‘‘Having said that, it’s a people game. Building your club is also about relationships and communication. We all know how to use statistics and all know how to use analysis to make an educated decision and look forward, but should it — or does it — rule the day, in my opinion? I don’t think so. I think most people would admit you need it, but there’s a feel that goes along with it.’’
This falls in line with my way of thinking. I think if you build your entire team based on numbers you’re going to miss something, but if you ignore the numbers you als will miss something. As Sabean says, a delicate balance. Using all the available tools around you gives you the best chance to make a good decision.