2007 and 2008 Reyes was awful in September and while Wright had great Septembers in those 2 years he failed in some late game at bats that garnered him the unclutch title,despite hitting 2 and 3 run HR’s as early as the 1st inning in a few games but we as fans get pissed when a guy fails with the game on the line late in games and only remember the failures.

I do agree with Alex and Omar fan believe it or not that Wright the last few years rarely comes up with the game on the line and comes through.He did for a good week and a half,two weeks after he came off the DL and showed signs of the old Wright by going to RF but then fell right back into his old habits of trying to crush every pitch 500 feet.

One thing I dont understand is why Reyes isn’t regarded the same way? Is it because he just came off a career year? He has been just as futile as Wright with the game on the line until he caught fire last year and played like Ty Cobb.Neither one of these guys has been very good at coming up late in games and turning a loss into a victory.How many games have we lost in the 8th and 9th innings with either Wright or Reyes failing to get the tying and sometimes go ahead runs in.Lets be fair here,It’s why we have had so many heart breaking losses the last few years.

The batting titles nice and I’m real happy for Jose, he deserves it. Now his name will always be mentioned with the elite of his nation and considering how many Dominicans have been spectacular Major Leaguers that’s really saying something but I’m most interested in a TEAM that wins titles, Division, NLCs’s and World Series. I’d go 5 years, vesting option, I’d probably go 6 guaranteed years but I wouldn’t do 7 because even 6 is getting into risky territory. 6 year deal includes his age 34 season. That’s where I’m leaving it unless Jose Gives us a 7th year for free.

Personally I think Jose would make the most money taking a 5 year deal now with a promise not to offer arbitration and hitting free agency again at 33. I’d even give him a player option for a 6th year at a low base say 10 M that he could exercise if he needed to come back from injury or something or you could make the 6th year a vesting 25 M dollar one but that’s where I draw the line.

If it’s about 7/150 no matter how great he is, how much we enjoy seeing him play, root for him and want to see his number on our wall for all time, it’s just too much of a risk. I’ll risk his age 34 season if an option vests or at half price if his value goes down for some reason but I am not guaranteeing both his 34 and his 35 year old season.

Hitting free agency again at age 33 with no comp picks due will be the biggest double dip in MLB free agent history. 5/100 (with 1/10 M at the players option or 1/25 earned by vesting option) followed probably by 3/90 come 2017.

There are guys like Friedman, Epstein, Daniels, Moore, Hoyer, Byrnes who are young and probably wouldn’t have a job without sabermetrics being a part of the game.

Ignoring that is just silly. I’m not saying Daniels relies on sabermetrics because I’m saying no GM solely relies on sabermetrics. None. Not even Billy Beane. The A’s have a director of scouting who has been employed by the organization since before Beane got there. If he relied solely on sabr’s why would he employ a scouting staff?

At the end of the day, GM’s listen to their scouts, the ones who use sabr use it to give them more data, because the more data you have the most informed decision they believe you can make.

If you look at all of the teams in MLB and say give me the top 25% that use sabermetrics. GM Jon Daniels is certainly in that 25%.

It’s okay to acknowledge it.

Humans make mistakes from time to time that why we put erasers on pencils!

But first to address what you said!
Using sabers does not say HOW MUCH! I USE Sabers am I a Sabermtric Guy?
This is the assumption you are essentially making here with GMs, You don’t know how much Omar used Sabers nor even if Daniels used them more! Just mentioning that you use them (and especially in the case of the word EMBRACE which is a LIGHT HUG by definition!) Doesn’t mean he is a SaberGuy in the same vein as Tango Tiger nor does it mean he subscribes to the same Philosophy Bill James was promoting when he came up with the original set of metrics he used to promote that Philosophy!

Now to what I said…
Guys like Bill James and TangoTiger do not have the benefit of other things to look at other than stats!
They probably use 100% Sabers or lets say 90% Sabers 10% Traditionals.
They are relying on Sabers a hell of a lot more than Daniels is! Thier selections will be very different because they don’t recognize their bioas towards certain events that Daniels does not appear to have when you look at the statistical makeup of his team!

The guys you mentioned have jobs because they had an open mind, did all the things a GM would do PLUS something extra, not because they use Sabers but because they were willing to do work most GMs at the time wouldn’t do!
They all EMBRACE Sabers now because someone does the work to calculate them for them! All they have to do is look at them!

If those guys do anything different is they probably know how to create their OWN metrics at will which have little to do with Bill James philosophy or Tango Tigers “lets get a lot of RBOE because they are better than Hits” mentality!

The word Sabermetrics is interchanged by the Saber crowd to include any stat that isn’t a traditional regardless if they really were part of Bill James’ Originals or if they even reflect OB as the most important thing which most SABER guys on this site believe (due mostly because of Moneyball). Daniels and Epstien may very well use a spreadsheet but that doesn’t mean they use Sabers!
They use deep statistical analysis which has NOTHING to do with OBP Centric calculations nor does it subscribe to the belief OBP+SLG=RS+

Sabermetrics = Deep Statistical Analysis!
But Deep Statistical Analysis does NOT Equal SABERMETRICS!
It goes WAY beyond what Bill James and Tango Tiger believe and support!
It makes it’s OWN Metrics to find whatever it is they pinpoint as MOST IMPORTANT which may or may not be OBP that Bill James and tango Tiger believe is most important!

And if you don’t understand that then you obviously don’t get what the MLB is actually doing with the Sabers!
They use them but not the way Bill James intended. And the reason for that perhaps is they UNDERSTAND as I do the flaws inherent in many of the Metrics and philosophies Sabers were basically based on.

They have evolved FAR BEYOND what all the average SaberRattlers read and learned about!
They RELY on the Sabers exclusively and GMs know where they are poor and try to compensate!
Trying to make thier success due to Sabers alone is putting a little more stock into those uses than they actually do!
The old fashioned method STILL dominates their evaluation proccess. They just use the extra tools available and in some cases make their OWN when they don’t trust the ones that ARE available!
And THAT is the main difference between them and someone else who uses Sabers!

That’s not nit picking when that run cost them the game.Getting picked off in the same way for not paying attenton and a catcher just lobbing the ball to 1B as he was walking back to 1B from his lead.Jose is a great player,no doubt about it but if he got into a debate with a foot long sabrett,he’d lose.

To me winning is all that matters,I don’t get into who wins BA titles,RBI titles,HR’s.I want a division title.God bless him he won a BA title but we finished 4th.

I used the word YOU which I will say was meant for FANS WHO USE SABERS!

As for texas since neither you or I know the recipie of what Daniels uses in what quantities I will say this.
His use of Sabers is a lesser percentage of his decision making than it is for Regular Joe Q Pub who has no scouting department believes in Sabers as a religionist who will say Ignore BA and Traditionals because Sabers are the better thing to look at!
EMBRACING Sabers means he uses them and thats about it! He has scouting and he probably uses traditionals as much as he used to but also added Sabers into the mix!

Thats a far cry from some SaberRattlers around here and on boards like AA who have no scouting dept, think anyone who even dares to look at a traditional is lost crazy or behind the times and in fact insists that most traditionals should be ignored!

Ask a guy like Tango who will poopoo any mention of BA and dismiss RBI as a TEAM STAT because they have an OB agenda that needs to diminish anything BUT OB!

They RELY on Sabers because thats all they have aside from the traditionals they wont’t even look at!

He said he EMBRACES them you say HEAVY USE!
I don’t see where embracing and HEAVY come together myself!
RELYing is about exclusive use!
Embracing means to add it to the mix of what he does!
VERY DIFFERENT meaning if you ask me!

And it shows because the high OBP guys he is getting are not just HIGH OBP they have a high BA as well!
And most Sabers guys who refuse to look at BA because it’s passe wouldn’t get the same result!
Daniels does his homework!
Using Sabers is much like this debate we are having on Spending!
It’s not how much you use but how you use it!
Wouldn’t you agree with that?

Metrics tell the story they are built to tell but some muct be crosschecked with Traditionals to see how much is real and how much is not!
Such as the case with OBP and BA!
A guy can have a high OBP but if he has a low BA then he isn’t really EARNING that OBP he is either getting hit by pitches wholesale or getting walked like crazy!
Something thats lost the second the pitcher stops hitting him and throwing him Balls!

Two things (I replied here because I didn’t want it to get lost)

“Jessup EMBRACE is different from what you guys do!”

“EMBRACING is a far cry from RELYING ON!”

A) I still for the life of me can’t figure out why you think I rely on sabermetrics? Have I ever lectured you about things like WAR( which I told Joe D today in another blog that I don’t like it). When have I have gotten into it with people here on anything other than OPS, WHIP, OBP which are BASIC sabr stats at best (exc: obp). The other day I said I think BABIP is undervalued, but I don’t live and die by it.

B) Daniels is one of the few who are known for their heavy use of sabr’s, and frankly I haven’t seen Alderson come out and talk any differently that would suggest he “relies” on sabrs so how is he different from Daniels?

It’s essentially an out, with the explanation (via the error) of how you made an out, and yet still got on base.

Statistically speaking reaching base on an error is no different than making an out.

Say on opening day, your 1st AB of the season. Fly ball CF, ball is dropped. What’s your BA? .000.
1 AB, 0 hits.

What’s your OB? .000? 1 PA (remember PA’s are AB’s + the other stuff) so 1 PA and 0 hits, walks ect.

Back in’41 they treated SAC’s as outs or Williams would have hit .416 but RBOE has always been treated no different than the out it was deemed it should have been.

No one’s BA or OB has ever gone up after reaching base on error, nor has anyone’s BA or OB failed to go down after reaching base by error.

The whole reason for charging an error in the first place is to not give credit to the hitter for making an out that the fielder failed to record one on.

RBOE, at least in official calculations of BA and OB, always negatively affect the hitters BA and OB.

Perhaps your thinking of some kind of sabermetric thing in some other stat that gives credit to a hitter for reaching by error? I’m just guessing here but that might be where the confusion comes in.

It’s okay to not know that ahead of time but don’t try and backtrack and pretend it’s not true!

I don’t think you’re against saber, (altho you think i’m so pro saber so thats funny). I think you’re against not knowing something. Jon Daniels is a GM because of the sabermetric GM generation and he is one of the young GMs in the sport KNOWN for his use of sabermetrics.

Please, I won’t even ask you to admit you’re wrong. Just let this thread die as your acknowledgment and don’t try to argue something that everybody in baseball knows.

RBOE does not get added in because statistically they are treated as outs.

If you were hitting were hitting .300 (say 30/100 and got on by error you are now hitting under .300. 30/101 or .297

If you also were at .333 OB when you got on by error (30 hits/5 walks/0 HBP/0 SAC in 105 PA’s) your OB% just went down. now your at .330.

still the same 30 hits, still the same 5 walks, same HBP and same SAC’s but one more PA.

Every AB is critical. Every single one from the 1st to the last. There is always something you can do to advance the chances of winning. You can never know before the game what spot is going to be the most important. 2 out nobody on can be the jumping off point for a big inning, you just never know. Same thing on defense. Every single guy, with the occasional exception of the CFer can do something on defense even when the ball isn’t hit to him.

Catchers and 2nd basemen back up 1B. (depending on runners) LFer backs up 3B on a throw from RF. There is rarely something that someone couldn’t do on every single play in baseball and any one of them, in any inning could be the difference.

That’s by the way one of the reasons I prefer to see a team develop their own position players rather than plugging in a couple of different ones every year.

None reflect the RBOE in OBP at all!
But count the SF as a PA which counts it as a negative (failed at bat) despite the fact it is productive and moves runners one base more than they had!

It’s a bit hypocritical isn’t it to do that?

Aren’t fair standards, STANDARD in all situations?

Think about it!

BIG difference in hat Daniels uses and what you guys do around here!

And if you say otherwise I’m just going to ignore you for fear of arguing something that none of us can prove one way or the other because we are not there to see what happens!

EBBRASING is a far cry from RELYING ON!
FAR FAR CRY!
He embrasses and you guys RELY on!