27
2011
A Small Piece To A Big Puzzle
An article by 
There’s so much talk lately (probably because we’re bored), about what statistics we use when evaluating hitters or what stats we wish management to use to do the same.
It’s mildly amusing to me to see how heated this conversation gets. It always seems to wind up in some discussion centered around Billy Beane, or David Wright. When arguing with a Mets fan, when things start to get stale…just mention one of those two, and you’ve got yourself a few more days worth of arguing!
Recently, Tony LaRussa came out and said “On-base percentage is one of the most dangerous concepts of the last seven, eight years, because it forces some executives and coaches and players to think that it’s all about getting on base by drawing walks.”
First, and foremost, I think he’s missing the point of why people value OBP. I think when critics look at OBP, the “walk” is an easy target to refute any value in the stat.
I don’t think there is a baseball fan alive who would prefer a hitter to draw a walk rather than get a base hit. However, would I prefer that hitter to draw a walk rather than earn an out? You betcha.
Sure, there are moments when a deep fly ball out or a ball hit to the correct side of the infield can score you a run, but generally speaking a walk is better than an out.
Second, I don’t think there is a GM in the sport who relies solely on OBP anymore. It may have been done in the early 2000’s as a way to find guys that nobody was really looking at, solely because they didn’t have the “sexy stats.”
I came across this blog by Dustin Parkes. I found it very informative because a) he didn’t kick and scream and b) he made reasonable arguments. LaRussa is a great, great Manager. But that doesn’t make him right all the time. LaRussa isn’t in charge of building his roster, he’s in charge of making sure they play to the best of their ability.
If LaRussa doesn’t want to build a team with OBP being a part of that equation, then he may want to speak with his GM who is doing that.
Truth be told, I don’t value OBP as much as some people may think I do. I think it’s one chapter in a long book detailing a player’s ability. I do not think there is one single stat that Sandy Alderson can or should look at to decide which players to acquire. Scouts exist for a reason, as do stats. The perfect blend of those two entities can lead to great things.
If you asked me what the one stat I’d look at to determine a hitters ability, I’d look at OPS. Sure, every stat has a flaw. But OPS combined the actual art and impact of a hit, and also adds importance to the walk. I don’t dislike batting average, I just don’t celebrate the statistic.
I never quite understood why critics of sabermetrics focus all of their attention on OBP. As though they think J.P. Ricciardi is being locked in some room and not allowed to come out until he’s properly sorted an excel column from best OBP to worst. It’s just one piece in a very large puzzle.
Carlos Pena hit .225 this year, that tells you he had an awful year and doesn’t tell you he walked 101 times in 2011. But when you look at his OPS of .819, you see a hitter who was above average, not great overall. If you just looked at his batting average you’d see a totally different story.
Everybody who watches this sport, and who manages a team in this sport has a different way of looking at things. If there was one book written on how to think, and how to build a team no matter your budget, then the Royals and Pirates would be competitive every year.
That’s the great part about this game. There’s no 1 way to do things. Everybody has a view as to how things should be done, and what the best way to build a team is. For every LaRussa, there is a Girardi. For every Andrew Friedman there is a Brian Sabean.
If you ask me to look at 5 hitters all who play the same position, the first stat I am looking at to determine their offensive worth is OPS. I feel that paints the best picture of how well a hitter performs year after year.
Of course that’s just my opinion, I could be wrong.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 28 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 35 | .493 | 7.5 |
| Phillies | 34 | 37 | .479 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 40 | .385 | 14.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 47 | .319 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/18/2013
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Most stats only tell you what the result was, not why there was a result. You have to look at a wide variety of stats and see a player play everyday to really know what their value is.
A great example is Angel Pagan. I looked at his stats today and was kinda surprised, His BA/OBP are the only stats to drop. His BB% and K% actually improved in ’11 over ’10. His Plate Discipline stats are pretty close from both years, a little improved in ’11. He even hit more Line Drives in ’11 then ’10.
So if you just look at OBP (a results stat), you’d know that Pagan had a down year from the year before, but sadly the numbers Pagan was either lucky in ’10 or unlucky in ’11. It’s probably a combination of luck and better scouting. The Plate Discipline type numbers are much better indicators as in why.
Now that’s my interpretation of the numbers…which was different from the impression I had before looking at the stats. It could be different than someone else’s.
Not to rip off a movie, but in a 500 AB season, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .280 hitter is 10hits! So looking a averages of any type can be very misleading if not looked at properly.
Absolutely. It is about getting as much information as you can and then putting it in it’s proper context.
No one stat can tell you all you need to know. If I tell you a guy hit 40 HR, you might get excited, until I say it was over a 5 year span. A .380 OBP looks really good until you see a slugging percentage 50 points lower (hi, Luis Castillo!).
What teams can do, however, is look for minimums for certain categories and work from there.
numbers should also serve as a checks and balances to personal opinion (including a scouts). People often see what they want to see, or expect to see, and need objective measures to validate.
Just like some guys “look” like they are players, and others don’t. how much of that bias gets through scouting reports?
any stat is just another piece of data to consider in the big picture. Nothing is perfect. And there is a big difference between looking at big period/team level stuff (like runs scored over a year) and an individual player, and certainly individual ABs.
if nothing else, one size will not fit all.
In terms of summary stats, I like OPS too. It strikes a nice balance, since it looks at 2 things that are important (hitting (for power) and getting on base (not making outs).
it is up to the indidual to decide which component is more important to them, but any player with a high OPS (meaning they are good at both areas, or incredible at one!) is almost guaranteed to be a stud hitter.
and even if you like one triat over the other, having extra on the less favored one is certainly a bonus, or maybe a tie breaker!
and this has nothing to do with advanced/saber stats. IMO, all they try and do is answer the age old question “who’s better”, taking it from purely subjective, to something objective.
Honestly, if you have two guys that are otherwise the “same’ (defense, SBs, clutchness, hustle), what is better:
A) .240 BA, .360 OBP, .440 slg, .800 OPS
OR
b) .290 BA, .320 OBP, .480 slg, .800 OPS
“I think he’s missing the point of why people value OBP. I think when critics look at OBP, the “walk” is an easy target to refute any value in the stat.”
Again Jessup you are MISSING what it was he said!
He is saying some MLB GUYS DO MAKE THIS MISTAKE!
He wasn’t talking about OBP itself but HOW IT IS BEING USED!
You want to deny that is happening in the MLB then show us proof that it isn’t!
But he is THERE and YOU are NOT!
I think he has a slightly better pulse on what is happening in the MLB than you do!
As for OBP and looking for a hitter does OBP alone tell you how the guy hits?
Or does BA do that better?
No stat on it’s own is enough but if your looking for HITTERS you don’t look at OBP first which you on many occassions and most saber rattlers says is better than BA to judging GOOD HITTERS!
So what he said is correct NOT JUST for the MLB but many fans in general!
You tell a guy who can only hit .250 to improve on OBP he has very little choice but to walk more because he does not have the hitting skills to increase it via the bat! He has to use the WALK instead!
And walking more does not make you a better hitter!
You guys are just so rediculous in your defense of a stat using things that MIGHT be correct about them if they were used properly.
But people (fans as well) do NOT use them properly!
Because they look at the column, not at the math used to CREATE to column!
I have said for well over a year now with VICIOUS ATTACKS by you Donal and the other Saber cheerleaders that if you look at the BA the OBP will ALWAYS be higher than that!
So find the GOOD HITTERS and then if you tell the guy increase his OBP you have a shot of getting MORE HITS and MORE WALKS because you already have a guy who can hit who maybe only needs to layoff some bad pitches!
Look for the HITTERS FIRST!
Then look at that list to see which one has the most selective eye as a secondary metric!
Do that and OBP will NEVER FAIL you!
Because for the ost part it is earned OB not given OB!
And having that it’s easy to get more GIVEN OB because the pitcher won’t want to give him anything to hit and in doing so walk the guy who is more selective!
But everytime I suggest this you guys get on the OBP High Horse and complain that BA is no good compared to OBP!
All because your more interested in defening OBP than you are to opening your mind to the fact not ALL Sabers are better than the traditionals in cases of Batting, Run Production and BATTER ABILITY!
How come every time you respond it comes off as you are stomping your feet with every exclamation point? Did you even read my post or did you just sift through trying to find a quote you can flip out about?
If you read my post you’d see that I am suggesting OBP is NOT the end all be all and that SLG and mostly OPS tell you MORE about a hitter than just OBP or just BA.
“As for OBP and looking for a hitter does OBP alone tell you how the guy hits? Or does BA do that better?”
– How about, or does SLG % do that better?
OBP is in a different category than BAVG because it tells you different things. SLG % tells you more about a hitter than BAVG does.
Who is having a better post-season Matt Holliday or Nelson Cruz?
Holliday: 51AB, .294 AVG
Cruz: 58AB, .241 AVG
Your method says Holliday. My method says Cruz
Holliday: 51AB, .412SLG
Cruz: 58AB, .690SLG
You gonna tell me you want Holliday up in the post-season over Cruz right now?
Casey Kotchman hit .306 this year with a slg percentage of .422, Mike Stanton hit .262 with a SLG percentage of .537. I’ll take Stanton over Kotchman, thanks.
By the way OBP isn’t a sabermetric stat. I’m still not sure why you haven’t grasped that because it seems like every time somebody mentions OBP You attack “saberheads” which just makes you look like you have an agenda rather than a point.
And how come everytime you post it starts off about the poster and not what he said?
OBP isn’t a sabermetric stat…But Sabermtrics is ALL ABOUT the OBP!
SLG only tells you how heavy the average hit is doesn’t say how often he gets them!
A guy can have a .500 SLG and that could mean he went 1 for 8 with a HR or 5 for 10 hitting singles!
It really doesn’t say squat about how often the guy will get a hit!
Or even what kind of hit he is getting!
Sabers says it talks about power but power need not be present to have a high SLG!
Look at Reyes he has a ton of SLG but because he has speed not power!
It’s all the triples in conjunction with all the other hits that makes him look like a POWER hitter he is not!
Like I said Sabers tends to OBSCURE stats in the name of the quality you think your looking for yet it doesn’t really show that quality!
It is not a POWER Metric it is a TB Metric!
If you want a TRUE metric for Power then try this.
(2X2B) + (3X3B) + (4XHR)/Hits
Thats a far better way to judge how much POWER the batter has and used in conjunction with BA will tell you better who hits for power than SLG does!
SLG doesn’t do it that way because it was created by a guy who was trying to make a point about OB and needed to include the single to keep it important in all Sabermetrics!
He wanted to make a POWER Metric but biased it by including singles because he has a BIAS for OB and wants to make them important in EVERY STAT category because that was why he invented the metrics in the first place to show something about getting on base!
And if you want you can even replace the division by Hits and use AB if you prefer. It will STILL show you a percentage (the number will be lower for sure) of how many ABs result in a EBH!
Agains combine with BA and you will get a pretty good picture of the guys ability to hit for power or EBH (it will still favor speed as power though) but it at least will take the high BA singles hitter out of the POWER metric!
“SLG only tells you how heavy the average hit is doesn’t say how often he gets them!” — Over the course of 5 at bats doesn’t matter what their BA or SLG is. Over the course of time, SLG tells you more than BA. If you could only pick ONE stat to look at after 500 AB, why would you choose BA over SLG?
You’d rather know how often they hit over 500 AB then how WELL they hit over 500 AB? BA tells you something, that’s fine. But I’m not interested in how often they get a single, I’m interested in what impact their hit has on the game.
No GM in baseball is worried about what a guy does after just 10 AB’s. that’s not a large enough sample size. I am sure some slow catcher has a stolen base on 1 attempt, does that make him a base stealing threat?
The problem I have with BA is it weighs a HR, 3B etc the same as a single. Would Jose Reyes be the same guy with a .337 batting average and 10 less triples and 10 less doubles? No. He’d be Luis Castillo.
Purely on offensive 2011 seasons this is how our teams would look
C Alex Avila
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Robinson Cano
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Troy Tulowitzki
LF Ryan Braun
CF Matt Kemp
RF Jose Bautista
versus
C Yadier Molina
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Jose Reyes
LF Ryan Braun
CF Matt Kemp
RF Hunter Pence
Now you may gladly take your team. That’s fine. But you cannot deny that the SLG leader team is any less impressive. But I’ll tell ya what, game on the line with a runner on, I’ll gladly take Bautista over Pence, Beltre over Aramis, Cano over Pedroia and Tulo over Reyes. That doesn’t mean Pence, Aramis, Pedroia or Reyes are bad hitters… I just believe the other 4 are better and SLG % is verifying that.
Therefore OPS gives you a far, far better idea of how well a hitter performs than BA, OBP or even SLG on their own because it captures times on base, how they got there and doesn’t exclude walks.
OPS does not such thing it is a kindergarten addition that weighs OBP as much as SLG and high OBP can trump SLG in that simplistic metric calculation!
Look at your list…
Is Cabrera really a better 1B than Pujols?
And where do you get your Catchers from? doesn’t SLG and OPS say Napoli is the catcher on your team?
So I have to question your supposed SLG lineups you listed…
Giambi would be 1B via SLG, Parmalee would be as good a 1B via OPS as Cabrera
I don’t know where or how you came up with my list but you certainly didn’t use the Power Metric i said was better than SLG!
“Look at your list…Is Cabrera really a better 1B than Pujols?”
In 2011 he was.
Miggy: 572AB, 111R, 48dubs, 30HR, 105RBI, .344 avg, .448 OBP, .586SLg
Albert:579AB, 105R, 29dubs, 37HR, 99RBI, .299 avg, .366 OBP, .541SLG
what about those 2 seasons is making you question whether Miguel Cabrera had a better 2011 season?
Napoli had 369 AB, he didn’ qualify for enough AB’s. I did that based on minimum AB required
Well we were talking about SLGs ability to pick the POWER HITTER!
You think 30 HRs is more power than 37?
He may be a more productive hitter BA alredy showed that!
SLG would lead you to believe he is a POWER hitter but he isn’t he is the classic OUTLIER of the SLG:POWER error that I talked about he gets more hits which makes his slg go up because he gets more hits not because he has more power!
And the SLG didn’t tell me anything about a productive hitter that his BA didn’t show!
To prove that you have to show me a lower BA hitter that the SLG shows he actually hits for POWER. In either case the SLG is useless both for showing who has MORE POWER or is no better than BA in showing how productive!
Cabrera is more productive than the other as BA clearly shows!
No I was talking about SLG telling me more about a hitter than BA. Again BA tells me how often, there’s nothing wrong with that but BA tells me Luis Castillo is better than Chase Utley then.
Metsie, maybe we can agree here. I dunno. My point even though you continue to say I don’t is that I do value Batting Average. I just think SLG % tells you MORE than BA. There is no stat that is perfect. None. But the more a stat can tell you, the better no? That’s why I like OPS because it includes the types of hits plus the ability to draw the walk.
However, sticking to BA v. SLG
You want to know how often a player gets a hit, but I want to know what type of hit they get. A double is better than a single, triple better than a double and HR better than a triple etc. right? Does Batting Average tell you that?
In 2009 Luis Castillo had the 3rd highest batting average among 2B’s with 450+ AB but he had 16 extra base hits out of 147 hits. He was 3rd in BA and 11 out of 12 in Slg.
Here are the current NL Top 5 per position with a minimum 450 AB
450 AB
C by AVG:
Yadier Molina
Carlos Ruiz
Miguel Montero
Brian McCann
Jon Lucroy
C by SLG:
Miguel Montero
Brian McCann
Yadier Molina
Geo Soto
Jon Lucroy
1B by Avg:
Joey Votto
Michael Morse
Todd Helton
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielders
1B by Slg:
Prince Fielder
Michael Morse
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Ryan Howard
2B by Avg:
Brandon Phillips
Jamey Carroll
Omar Infante
Darwin Barney
Aaron Miles
2B by Slg:
Rickie Weeks
Brandon Phillips
Dan Uggla
Chase Utley
Danny Espinosa
3B by Avg:
Pablo Sandoval
Aramis Ramirez
Placido Polanco
Chipper Jones
Ryan Roberts
3B by Slg:
Pablo Sandoval
Aramis Ramirez
Chipper Jones
Ryan Roberts
Casey McGehee
SS by avg:
Jose Reyes
Starlin Castro
Troy Tulowitzki
Emilio Bonifacio
Ryan Theriot
SS by Slg:
Troy Tulowitzki
Jose Reyes
Starlin Castro
Jimmy Rollins
Emilio Bonifacio
OF by Avg (Top 10):
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Hunter Pence
Lance Berkman
Carlos Beltran
Jon Jay
Matt Holliday
Carlos Gonzalez
Michael Bourn
Gerardo Parra
OF by Slg:
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Lance Berkman
Mike Stanton
Justin Upton
Carlos Gonzalez
Carlos Beltran
Matt Holliday
Corey Hart
Hunter Pence
Which leaves us with these differences
C:
Carlos Ruiz (avg) versus Geo Soto
1B:
Todd Helton (avg) versus Ryan Howard
2B:
Jamey Carroll, Omar Infante, Darwin Barney, Aaron Miles (avg) versus Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Chase Utley, Danny Espinosa
3B:
Placido Polanco (avg) versus Casey McGehee
SS:
Ryan Theriot (avg) versus Jimmy Rollins
OF:
Jon Jay, Michael Bourn, Gerardo Parra (avg) versus Mike Stanton, Justin Upton, Corey Hart
Now if you’re asking me to build a campionship caliber offense… I’m taking the all slug team minus Soto and McGehee.
So does it work every time? Absolutely not… but SLG % paints the picture of a better hitter than batting average does in most cases. Unless you’d prefer Gerardo Parra over Justin Upton?
Jessup I don’t have even HALF as many problems with SLG as I have with OBP!
At least all of the SLG is earned!
I personally don’t think it tells you what it was created to tell but that doesn’t make it useless to use just useless for the purposes of it’s creation!
You know the glue on postit notes was created to keep papers stuck not removable, It failed for what it was meant for but it’s still has a use!
It was made as a power metric. It’s no good for that!
As a complement to BA I have no isses with it and less than I have with OBP as a complement to BA!
But SLG to me still needs the BA to work. The BA tells you how often he gets a hit which lends weight to that average base per AB number.
Neither BA or SLG tells you what SLG was created to show which was POWER.
So to compare them as far as power is concerned is pointless!
My problem with SLG is not using it but what people thinks it says!
You are not thinking what they think your merely using it as a replacement for BA which isn’t as bad but still does not tell you how often the guy will get a hit only how many bases he might get if you give him X number of ABs
If you suggested we create a OPS using BA instead of OBP I would be right there with you on that Metric!
Now your correlating frequency of hits plus weight of those hits per AB and you have something meaningful!
So yes we CAN somewhat agree here!
See it isn’t that hard!
BA is EARNED, SLG is EARNED any metric that combines the two are an EARNED metric and worthy of attributing to a player I might be interested in getting because it’s HIS production not the gifts of the pitcher or defense!
My issues with Sabers are not the metric but how they are used and what they incorporate that is only there because OB Bias was the point of creating it!
That didn’t happen with SLG!
Does happen with OBP and WAR and if the OBP crew would make an attempt to correct that you wouldn’t hear a peep out of me regarding that new metric!