Sep
23
2011
23
2011
(Updated) A Breakdown Of The Moneyball Mets?
An article by 
Here is a break down of David Lennon’s “Moneyball Mets” and where each player with 20 or more at-bats ranks in On-Base Percentage (OBP). I also included the team and league average.
UPDATED: I added a chart that shows Left on Base, and RISP Left on Base….
UPDATED: Runs and RBI’s per game…
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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nice picture of the moneyballers joe D..
Well getting rid of so many guys that couldn’t get on base alone is going to increase the next years OB%.
Last year we had TWO starting pitchers who got on base more often than FOURTEEN of our “hitters.”
Simply subtracting Barajas, Arias, Francouer, Cora, Tatis, GMJ, Hessman, Luis Hernandez, Cattalonotto, Blanco, Feliciano and Fern alone would have caused anyone’s OB% to go up.
In addition Jacobs was able to nip Jon Niese by a thousandth of a point and tie RA Dickey in the OB category.
Duda especially and Nickeas did improve their OB% up here though.
Is there a stat that can figure out the percentage of OBP that is LOB because the Mets lead the league in LOB.
Basically what percent of the OBP stat converts to actual runs scored? And what percent is Left On Base.
I just want to prove my point of minimizing the importance of OBP that’s all. Getting on base is what everybody is supposed to do and we waste ENTIRELY too much time talking about it and less time what it takes to win games. The real important stat is RBI’s, the more of those, the more we win. Lots of losing teams have good OBP stats.
So, the fact that they are scoring a ton of runs is meaningless?
No what HAS menaing is the fact that three of the guys below league average were aquired using MONEYBALL and the rest who are WAY ABOVE league average were gotten via what you guys call MONKEYBALL the exact opposite!
YET the success is attributed to Moneyball isn’t it?
I added a new chart that reflects the LOB and RISP LOB. Couldn’t find the specific stat you described, but this will give you a basic idea.
I also included the 2010 stats and rankings for comparison.
some losing teams may have great OBP, but they have bad pitching. OBP means good offense, period.
The more you get on the more your going to leave cause your conversion rates going to remain about the same.
At the same time, the more you get on the more your going to drive in because again, your conversion rate is going to be about the same.
conversion rate? Are we talking about currency?
Sure, Gary Keith and Ron are always discussing conversion rates every night.
Sometimes I think people like the way they sound when using these ridiculous phrases. It makes them feel like they’re discussing engineering or something. You guys keep looking for new ways to create tools and fancy expressions used to help you record the game. I like talking about what it takes to drive in runs and win games. I don’t think i’m gonna require use of the term “conversion rate”. Sure it’s there but i won’t need it.
What does it take to drive in a run? Intestional fortitude or some other mumbo jumbo. What a laugh. It takes a good swing at a good pitch, same as what getting OB takes, nothing different about either one.
How long has it been anyway since you drove in a run?
No wonder you like to talk about it.
a lousy swing at a lousy pitch can drive in the winning run, a check swing too. Or getting out of the way and the ball hits the bat and goes fair – they can all drive in a run.
Just hit the ball to drive in that winning run. Or you can leave the bases loaded and have the team OBP go up, and lose the game too.
Here is a good analogy for OBP and RBI….
OBP is a bullet
RBI is a hit on the target!
Sure with 100 Bullets even the WORST shooter can hit the target more than a guy with 50 bullets. He has twice the number of opportunities to hit the target! And could hit the target more!
Unless the guy with the 50 Bullets is a MUCH BETTER SHOT than the guy with 100!
If the first guy misses half his opportunities at best he can tie the good marksman! Give the marksman more bullets and he can hit the target more.
It’s not about the bullets which relies on the law of averages…
It’s about the AIM which is all about the SKILL not the bullets!
The theory they believe only holds true if it is accompanied by the guy who gets the RBIs
Cause with the RBI the OB doesn’t score!
In other words, the OBP is a component and RBI is a result?
Close, but your analogy still fails.
Yeah prove it fails!
And no OBP is the opportunity but RBI is the SKILL COMPONENT required to drive him in!
the OB did not complete the job of scoring runs it requires something else (the RBI)
But the RBI does not require the OBP to get the job done, does not require a guy to be on base to get it!
In the case of a HR the batter did what CAUSED and allowed the RBI and OB to happen BEFORE any base was even touched!
THAT is not just about the result (recorded as the RBI) it’s about what he did to ALLOW the RBI and RS to be recorded!
Without it the OB doesn’t count as an RS!
Arizona has a 320 team OB% the Mets have a 335.Arizona has scored more runs than the Mets.
I agree with the first sentence but the second sentence is not correct.
Having more opportunity does not always translate to more success. It make the job of getting the success more likely but it does not guarantee the score.
No more than buying 50 Lottery tickets gives you a better chance of winning the lottery than buying on.
The ODDS are the same for all those tickets not increased in any way!
But those are the sort of things that even out over the course of a 162 game season. The more chances you get, the more times you should succeed, but you’ll also fail more often, however the cumulative totals will be higher the more chances you have.
That’s a good reason why it would be nice to see who converts the most of their opportunities. RBI/RISP Like free throw percentage because to tell you the truth, for all the talk about clutch, no one here can even say who drives in the highest percentage of the runners they do have in scoring position. We can only tell who drives in the most and someone who hits behind Rickey Henderson will have more opportunities than someone who hits behind Jeff Francouer.
But they don’t even out teams all convert opportunities at different rates and while it is quite possible more OBP leads to more conversion it’s also JUST as possible it doesn’t!
OBP is not the key factor in conversion the RBI is!
It showed what GOT coverted.
A team can have a .500 OBP and drive in 500 runs and another team can have a .600 OBP and still only drive in 500 runs!
The same team who had .500 OBP and 500 runs could also not get the key hits the next year despite increasing their OBP!
And conversely a team who has a lower OBP could score more runs than they did the previous year because they were more efficient with the opportunities.
OBP is a percentage that only shows how efficient you are at getting on base.
But say nothing or affects in no way your efficiency in scoring them so YES coming up with a better metric on scoring efficiency would be MUCH better towards indicating that if the OBP went up the RS might as well but even then it is still no guarantee!
This is largely because OBP can accelerate on events that do not score runs!
Instead of looking at the efficiency of opportunity it would be much better to look at efficiency when those opportunities were there.
And most Saberattlers refuse to acknowledge the RBI stat that is key to it’s creation! They refuse to acknowledge that the OB is useless unless it is accompanied by an RBI! And RBIs can be made without the OB!
It doesn’t fit their bias towards NO OUTS they hold so dear!
Yet Sac Flys win games all the time! They record RBIs!
So you need to take a count of Total OBs and the percentage of those Obs that were driven in.
And the saber folks refuse because it requires counting TWO things they are sworn to hate…the RBI and the OUT!
At least the Bill James followers, I am sure there are SOME Saber folks who are not so stubborn in pushing the Bill James Bias Bible!
Well Metsie I’m not a saber metric guy myself but I’m always willing to take a look at anything, in baseball or anything else I’m interested in. Even things I’m not interested in if someone can arouse my interest. I’m not interested in FIP or things like that but i’m sure some day I’ll take a look. I think I was referring to measuring the efficiency of hitters regarding their opportunities though. RBI vs. RISP Percentage vs cumulative.
Some hitters do have more chances than others. If they wind up with the same cumulative totals than who is the better RBI producer?
I have no stake in the saber vs. anti saber debate. I arrived at my beliefs simply by wanting to win baseball and softball games. I always make out the line up on my teams and I do the book immediately after the game. Not that rec leagues have any kind of relationship to MLB but the biggest thing in scoring runs is turning your line up over. I couldn’t give a rats *** if a guy gets on by a hit, walk, error, HBP, catcher interference or a bad call. If he’s on I’m one batter closer to my best hitters WITH a man on and one less out than if he had made an out. If the next guy does the same, then I’m one more batter closer to the heart of the order with TWO guys on. If you can keep that going your having a big inning. Every guy that gets on, with out a FC gets us that much closer to the heart of the order, with more guys on and more outs to work with.
The biggest component to getting the heart of the order 5 AB’s each is the bottom of the order getting OB. Regardless of how they do it. If the bottom of the order goes 1-2-3 the first two times through the order not only does your top only get 4 AB’s, they get them with no one on and frequently start out with one or two outs on top of it. That is a killer.
Granted, the mere fact that the bottom does get on is no guarantee that their going to be driven in. Line drive can turn into a double play. FC, strike out, pickoff. poor AB anything can happen. That’s why we love the game so much but the opportunity is right there to be had. All things being equal your top 5 are doing a lot of damage when they come up with two guys on and no one out in the 3rd as opposed to no one on and 1 out in the 4th. You can physically feel the game being won right then and there.
I’ll tell you Metsie, I’ve been obsessed with winning baseball and softball games for 45 years and nothing tilts the odds more in your favor than turning the line up over one AB at a time. In the example I just gave it was the difference in two guys getting on (however they did it) That’s it. Just two guys at the bottom of the order put you on for a feast. Granted not all of your top five are getting hits but some of them are. And those that do, turn into RBI opportunities for those behind them. The question then becomes how long can you keep it going before the outs strike three. That determines how many runs you score.
Offensively, keeping that line up turning, is by far the most important component to scoring a lot of runs.
I have never put you in the Saber Trick bag just so we are clear on that!
“Some hitters do have more chances than others” And some have less BETTER chances than others. Thats where the team sport comes in….
A guy who drives in 50 of 100 runners on 1st is ultimatly the better RBI producer than a guy who scored 50 of 100 runners on 2nd no? Cause he got the hit that would have driven in the run in BOTH situations where the latter may not have scored a runner who was on 1st!
I have no problem WEIGHTING the RBIs in a RPROD metric. Or even OBI! If you don’t want to count because it’s dependent on the TEAM then fine but at least talk about stats that all are DIRECTLY RELATED to producing runs!
OBP does not and neither does SLG. When you use those you are doing nothing more than DRAWING conclusions, conclusions that do not exist!
It is just as possible to have a high OBP and SLG and not score any runs in a sample so while it’s logical to think the runs go up there is no proof they did!
You could weight the RBIs based on the bases that were occupied at the time of the PA. IE:
1.0 for a HR
.75 for a runner on 1st
.50 for a runner on 2nd
.25 for a runner on 3rd
That takes away the advantage of one batter having more guys come up with 2nd or 3rd compared to a guy who has a runner on 1st. You account for the team by weighting how easy the team made it for the batter to score that run.
Much better than just assuming that because a guy was on base he should have driven him in despite the fact the guy was on 1st and only a double would get the job done!
You would be able to say HOW much the batter actually did to score the run by weighting them!
How many ABs is irrelevant to me. They are not limited first off (extra Innings) and if your good at driving in runs you don’t need more Abs to get the runs!
Does getting guys on base ahead of a batter make it easier to score a run? Of Course but until the Batter does something to score it it produces nothing but a runner!
And thats why OBP doesn’t work when trying to predict RS and neither does SLG.
Because the SLG could be all in the OB since there is no way to know if the SLG scored a run or not!
One guy could hit a triple and it can be followed by two walks!
Still not a single run is scored, High OB but no joy and no guarantee that any will! Because it’s still up to someone with a bat getting an RBI or the defense making an error before a run can score!
Sure it should be easy for the next three batters to score one but it still doesn’t guarantee they will!
3 K’s and there is a lot of OB (.500) with nothing to show for it!
OB goes up with most RBIs so it is dragged up high by the same acts that score the run!
But OB doesn’t know if a run scored or not!
It’s just an ASSUMPTION by the saber folks and why it fails to predect the order of teams RS!
RBI almost ALWAYS does a much better job.
You can have a low OBP and still make the top 10 in scoring!
But all the OBP in the world will not put you at the top of RS unless it is accompanied by the RBI!
Or an awful lot of gimme’s by the opposing defense!
Agee’s right, Metsie. Just look again at OBI%. Ryan Braun’s got the best OBI% in the league for qualified hitters but is only 4th in RBI because the three guys ahead of him have had significantly more chances.
The odds of winning a scratch off lottery is roughly one in three. What gives you a better chance to win, one ticket or three?
We were talking lotto!
OBI will always favor the power hitter! He clears more bases than the singles guy! and can get RBI wholesale!
And OBI also could be high because there was fewer guys OB when he hit but he just drove more of them in!
OBI says how efficient he is at driving in his opportunities.
You can say with more he would have driven in more but you also can’t say for sure because his BA is still .249!
Granderson is the RBI leader
Why isnt it a Red Sox if your theory holds true?
Granderson is followed by Kemp, Dodgers are 10th in OBP!
Phillies are 11th in OBP! Explain how Howard is doing what he is doing?
If your theory is true why doesn’t it prove out?
Because Howard hits behind a couple if guys with good OBP, not the whole team.
And no one on Boston has a high OBP even though they have a higher team OBP than the Phillies?
Hmm so High OBP caused Howard to have good numbers but could not cause the RedSox to have the same?
Thats admitting that High OBP is not a deciding factor here aren’t you?
It only helps SOME guys not others!
Boston players HAD those more opportunities you claim will result in them driving in more runs yet Howard with FEWER opportunities still drove in more than any Red Sox player!
No one on Boston has a high OBP? Are you kidding? They have five guys above .370. Boston players have more opportunities. Which is why Gonzalez has more RBI that Howard. Which is why there are three other Sox with more RBI than the 2nd ranked guy on Philly and Youk, even missing all this time, is only one behind.
Get your facts straight.
The if high OBP leads to more RBI then why don’t any of their players lead the league in RBI?
Granderson Kemp and Cano are all ahead of Gonzales in RBI yet Boston has the highest OBP of any team!
Do the Dogers lead the league in OBP?
Because Granderson and Kemp have significantly more home runs? Because Cano hits behind Jerer, Granderson, Teixeira and A-Rod? Because TEAM OBP doesn’t specifically affect Gonzalez. If he hits 4th, he’ll never have a chance to drive in the 5-7 guys, who have high OBP. Lots of reasons.
Boston has the highest OBP in the league. Guess who’s scored the most runs in the league? The Yankees, Rangers and Tigers are 2-4 in OBP. Guess who’s 2-4 in runs scored? It’s not rocket science, it’s the way baseball’s been played for 150 years.
I find it quite appropriate that to DODGED the DODGER who is also above any Red Sox player!
You point out that Boston has the highest OBP in the league which proves nothing because they also have the highest RBI as well!
WHich fits my model more than yours!
Toronto Blue Jays are 14th in OBP 5th in RS 6th in RBI!
It’s the RBI that is significant OBP is apparently IRRELEVANT because if it was Toronto who is ANYTHING but top 5 in OBP IS top 5 in RS!
Something your theory says CAN NEVER HAPPEN!
But MY theory predicts their ranking almost perfectly doesn’t it?
EPIC LOSS I don’t know why you inisist on this OBP track when I have showed in EVERY YEAR examples of teams that prove it all a bunch of phoey!
Boston has the most RBI because they have the highest OBP. Runs and RBI are the same thing and they follow OBP. Not just for them, for about 95% of teams throughout baseball history. The one or maybe two outliers per year, like the Blue Jays, is because of the vast discrepancy in their OBP and SLG ranking. The Jays are 10th in the league in OBP, 5th in SLG% and 5th in runs scored. That’s an outlier. It’s when something doesn’t follow the mold. They should be 7th or 8th in runs scored, but they’re 5th. Last season they were 12th in OBP and 1st in SLG%. Where’d they finish up in runs scored? 6th. Naturally.
The Mets follow this formula, too. This season, they are 2nd in OBP. 8th in SLG%. I’ll give you one guess where they are in runs scored. Forget it, I’ll just tell you. 5th. Naturally.
You need to stop trying to reinvent baseball. It’s been like this for 150 years and you changing the definition of a hit won’t change that.
I asked you to find three teams in baseball history that finished in the bottom 5 in OBP and the top 5 in runs. If you can’t do it, just admit it.
And Whats Toronto”s excuse?
Hmm they are up in RS, Up in RBI, Low in OBP!
So whats your excuse How did they get those RBI and RS without OBP?
You can run from these teams but you can’t hide!
If what you said were true then Toronto shouldn’t be there!
But they are!
Because of the RBI that didn’t need OBP to get!
Lots of slugging. OBP is first, SLG is second. It is a little strange that the SLG would be so representative, which is what we call an outlier. It exists in every scenario on the planet. Nothing is infallible. But there things that have such a vastly high success rate, it’s considered a truth. Like OBP and it’s affect on runs and RBIs.
It’s not unprecedented that a team who should be 7th or 8th in something is 5th considering the parameters, but I’m still waiting for the bottom five OBP team thats top 5 in runs/RBIs. Hiding from it?
So tell us all what the OBP and SLG ratio is to RS.
If they are the reason then you can show how much of each causes one RS can you?
If not then you can’t prove what you say and RBU which CAN overrides your theory!
Toronto 11th in OBP 7th in SLG
At best they should be below 7th in RS not 5th!
They are 6th in RBI! RBI correlates better than OBP and SLG doesn’t it?
You’re trying to invent something that doesn’t exist so when I can’t “prove” it, then I must be wrong. Just because something can’t be proven doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. There’s no formula that converts OBP and SLG% into runs/RBIs. That’s why the game is played on the field, not on paper. Get that through your head.
Runs and RBIs are the same thing. That’s why their totals are always so closely related. Not because one “causes” the other. They are the same result of the same play.
No YOU are trying to invent something that does not exists which is why you can’t show the ratio of OBP+SLG that results in 1 RS!
YOU claim it does so SHOW us how it does and at what rate!
If you can’t then obviously there is not relation that PROVES your theory!
Yet Mine DOES!
one RBI results in 1 RS!
OBP may help the RBI act produce more runs than usual but OBP does NOTHING unless it is accompanied by a corresponding RBI!
Runs are given to players who scored! RBIs are given to those who SCORE THEM!
TWO DIFFERENT THINGS!
No matter how insistant you remain they are different!
A batter can get an RBI without there being anyone on base, without getting an OB, and without getting a hit!
HIS ACT is KEY to the RS not the OB!
And everytime you insist that RBI is RS all your really doing is making my point because your admitting that OBP has NOTHING to do with RS directly but RBI does!
When you say things like “A batter can get an RBI without there being anyone on base, without getting an OB” I can’t help you. It’s factually and categorically false and against the rules of the game that were created over 100 years ago.
That’s where you fail. You MAKE UP scenarios, then say I’m wrong because I can’t prove them. You want proof that OBP most closely causes a high run/RBI total, look at the rankings in each league of both statistics since baseball was invented. Then look at other causes for scoring runs. Look at SLG%, loot at BA, look at hit toal. Look at it all and tell us which rankings most closely correlate. That’ll be all the proof you need.
Here’s a life lesson for you. Something isn’t false just because you can’t comprehend why it’s true.
So tell us all who is on base when the guy hits a HR!
Thats all you have to do!
Either that or show the ratio of OBP+SLG that results in 1 RS!
Can you do that?
NO!
SO truth is you can’t help youself without saying RBIs are driectly related to RS admitting to everyone OBP and SLG do not!
Disproving your own theory!
RBI is awarded based on an ACT AT THE PLATE!
It does not require the batter to get on base!
It does not require the batter to BE on base!
It doesnot require someone ELSE to be on base!
What it requires is the batter to hit the ball someplace that allows a run to score!
And if you don’t get that then YOu ARE HOPLESSLY BRAINWASHED!
And will not see the truth of the REALITY!
And the teams like the Toronto Blue Jays will score more runs than any team you build because you ignore the MOST IMPORTANT and RELATED stat towards RS the RBI!
Bostong and Yankees are at the top of the list not because of OBP and SLG it’s because they lead the league in RBI!
Want more proof?
Kansas Cioty Royals Better OBP and SLG compared to Toronto. Did they score more runs? Why not?
What did Toronto do better?
Take a look at the RBI column!
Your theory is proven DEAD WRONG!
It did not hold true!
Mine did though!
“So tell us all who is on base when the guy hits a HR!
Thats all you have to do!”
The batter. It’s not a run OR an RBI until home plate is touched. When the runner touches first it’s only a single till he touches second. When he touches second, its only a double till he touches third. And so on. Call up Robin Ventura and ask him exactly what he got for hitting the ball over the fence then getting gang tackled by Pratt and the rest of the team.
And what’s this junk about the Royals? They’re 5th in OBP, 6th in SLG% and 6th in runs scored. Sounds right to me. We already went over how the Jays were a slight anomoly. God forbid soemthing isn’t exactly 100% right 100% of the time. How about you answer why the Orioles have fewer runs scored than the Indians, but more RBI? Can’t prove that, can you?
See? I can do it, too.
SO your theory only works AFTER events are recorded not before!
What base was the baytter on when he hit the ball over the fence?
What HAD to happen to allow any base tio be touched?
You are trying to say results drive events that cause them!
Which is why your theory fails miserably!
Cause things in the future are a RESULT of the past the past doesn’t occur based on how it was recorded!
Did the STAT cause the run or the act of the better hitting the ball?
Does an OB cause a run to score even using your method of post data causality?
NO!
Does SLG? NO!
But the RBI does even in your backwards timeline of causality!
The run is CAUSED by the how the batter met ball with bat!
Not what the scorer wrote on the scorecard!
You way is only good for evaluating SCORERS not players ability to drive in runs!
And until you can explain Toronto your theory is proved WRONG!
Unless you can explain it!
But I’ve given you multiple shots and you ignored EVERY chance to prove your theory!
ALL stats are recorded after something happens. And until you find me three teams who finished in hte bottom 5 in OBP and hte top 5 in runs, you can’t prove it and I win as usual. I already told you Toronto was an anomoly. Do you know what that means?
Yes and they DESCRIBE something that happens. In the case of the RBI it describes something the batter did to score a run!
Until you can prove that OBP + SLG will relate to rankings of RS better than my methofd or show the ratio and proportions of OBP + SLG = RS
You are pissing in the wind and have no proof!
The MINIMUM OBP required to guarantee a run is .501!
The Minimum SLG required to Guarantee a RUN is 4.0
Show me a team that has ever achieved that!
I showed you a top 10 not a top 5 merely becauase the BEST teams are good in ALL stats!
Not just the ones you like!
WHY DON:”T YOU show us all a team that is top 5 in OBP and SLG but NOT top 5 in RBI?
Can you?
No so what you are using as a comparator (COINCIDENTAL RELATION) works far better for my statistic than it does for yours!
But the problem is the guy with the RBI CAUSES the run to score, the guy with the OBP and SLG may or may not! Your not sure and by using that to judge who the best player is your relying on LUCK as much as FACT!
Might as well drop your finger on a list of players because it’s as scientific a method for player selection and predicting RS production as yours is!
Just like you. I ask you to prove something that’s universally true and you can’t. You make up things that are false and ask me to prove them, and when I can’t it’s because they’re true. Time for work. This is child’s play. I’m done.
I did prove just didn’t limit the sample to get rid of the teams that don’t fit my theory!
Yours only works with a targeted sampling size because you can’t explain Toronto and Toronto disproves your Theory!
Boston Yankees and all the top 5 are in line and can PROVE mine!
Yours fails to prove after that, My proof still works!
“You make up things that are false and ask me to prove them, ”
I asked you to prove what YOU made up and now you say it isn’t true?
I asked you to prove WHY Kansas city didnt score more runs than a team with lesser OBP!
You couldn’t could you?
I proved that the team with Higher RBI did DESPITE lower OBP!
Now either you are admitting you can’t prove your own theory or that it isn’t true or you can PROVE IT by showing how much OBP + SLG equals 1 run!
YOU say they are related. Complain about RBI because it IS related and still say I haven’t prpved anything…
I think it’s time me and you have a shootout like you did with Satish on the topic.
You bring your evidence and I’ll bring mine!
In a few more days the season will be over and I will have three years of data showing how RBI relates to RS but not OBP or SLG!
Because temas with higher RBI will have higher RS than teams who have a higher OBP than the team with RBIs
I’ll even put a wager on it…
If I win you can no longer say RS is a product of OBP and SLG!
presumably all good teams have high numbers of men LOB because they are getting men on base. so more men LOB is a stat that reflects a good offense.
Driving them in is what wins games – RBIs is what will win titles.
Lots of last place teams have good offense, happens all the time.
“Driving them in is what wins games – RBIs is what will win titles.”
No, pitching wins titles. RBI is a meaningless stat that gives 1 guy credit for what is usually a team effort.
“Lots of last place teams have good offense, happens all the time.”
So, you admit the offense is good now? You keep learning everyday. I’m so proud of you
Can a pitcher win a game without someone scoring a run on his side? NO!
So he isn’t what wins games!
He is what makes it EASY for the rest of the team to win them!
Yes, winning is a team effort. Which is why counting RBIs and pitcher wins is silly.
So a Pitcher can win a game when no run is scored!
THIS IS HOW THIS GUY THINKS FOLKS!!!!!
IGNORE ON!
That is actually quite the opposite of what I said. How one earth did you get that from “winning is a team effort”?
But starting pitching is the main component to a winning team. Some teams win without great starting, but those are the exceptions.
You can deny what you said all you want but what you said is posted quite clearly above!
I said winning is a team effort.
I asked: Can a pitcher win a game without someone scoring a run on his side?
You said: Yes!
You also said: No, pitching wins titles. RBI is a meaningless stat…
Not meaningless if you don’t have one and all the pitching in the world won’t win a game until you do!
Joe, I think to be fair, you should note the Mets Runs Per Game and where that ranks them in your second chart.
I will add that to the post as well. Initially, I just wanted to point out how off-base Lennon was with his characterization of the team.
True. the term “Moneyball Mets” really needs to be buried.
how is he off-base? they are scoring more runs.
Was it Moneyball?
Look at the guys on the bottom of the list…
Look at the guys at the top…
Which ones (Top of List or Bottom) are Moneyball Aquisitions?
Its the term Moneyball. The situation in Oakland post Haas was different from the situation here now.
Mets are 4th in the league in runs scored and 6th in the league in RBIs. Goes to show how important the RBI statistic is. Mets are “outscoring” their RBI total. Runs scored is what wins games and that’s a direct product of the combination of OBP and SLG%.
NO sorry to say…First off they are 10th in RS, they are 18th in slg and 6th in OBP and RBI
the OBP and RBI accounts for their 10th in RS! not their 18th in SLG!
And OBP itself is worthless unles they are driven in which is about RBI!
When the season is done I WILL do another list to see how the different stats correlated to RS just for turds and Giggles!
And I’m sure it won’t be based on a preconceived notion and you won’t be looking to present the numbers in a way to back up said notion no matter how tenious the connection.
No I won’t…I will simply list the top order of teams based on OBP, then RBI, and see which list came closest to the rank of respective RS leaders.
I will basicaly do no manipulation at all just CO-RELATE the rankings and see which one did a better relating towards RS!
going from 24th to 10th in runs scored, that is good, right? what is the point here? that alderson is doing a good job with the offense?
No the point is IF he moneyball had anything to do with it…
And when you look at the players Moneyball got us you have to conclude that NO they had nothing to do with it because they are below league average in OBP and all the guys who are considered NOT moneyball types is what got us the numbers!
Good work Joe.
But it’s hard to care about LOB’s and OBP’s when the bullpen can’t get the OUT’s.
How many blown saves have we had since trading KRod? Now that’s a stat that makes all other irrelevent.
The top three things we needed last winter, but couldn’t get becaue of the Madoff-led Wilpons wae pitching, pitching and pitching.
I predicted 76 wins on this forum in March. What a shame.
Thanks Joe for posting the RBI difference from this year to last!
It makes your point even MORE CLEAR!
It shows that what those folks who think OBP and SLG result in RS really don’t get it!
neither OBP or SLG can tell you how many runs will score they have nothing to do with RS at all!
The RBI is most important as is ALWAYS the case!
Doesnt’t matter what your SLG or OBP is.
If you drive in the runs the RS goes up!
A team with an AWFUL OBP who leads the league in RBI will be at the top of RS!
Because it doesnt’t really matter how many guys or how often you got on base it only matters what you did when you had them!
And the hit that got them is also not important as long as the run was driven in!
Last line should read type of hit that got them…
RBI are runs scored though. Their essentially the same thing just accounted for in a different column. 99% of the time you cannot have an RBI unless a run scores so it goes without saying that whoever has the most RBI also has the most runs scored.
In football, a team who’s receiver corp leads the league in receiving yardage always has a quarterback who also leads the league in passing yards.
This theory works in other applications as well:
You make a deposit into your savings account and your balance goes up. Coincidentally by the same amount you deposited.
You write a check out and your balance goes down. Again coincidentally by the same amount as the check you wrote.
It rains, you get wet. It’s humid, you sweat. You turn the key, your car starts.
The simple fact is a single with a runner on 3B is almost always a run (and an RBI) A single with no one on base is never a run. So how can anyone say that one of these is more important than another? Without both occurring no run can score. Sure your supposed to get on but your also supposed to drive guys in.
The only way that one can argue that the guy who drives in the run with a base hit is more valuable than the guy that got on and scored the run is because the guy that drove in the run ALSO got on for someone else to drive him in.
By now we are all aware that we could endlessly debate all the myriad of different ways a run can score without an RBI but what’s the point? Last year the Mets scored 656 runs. 625 of them were awarded an RBI. That’s a difference of less than 1%. Over 99% of the time you can’t have one without the other. Their part and parcel of the same exact event. A run being scored created from two different equally responsible actions. A runner on and a base hit while he’s on.
Without both of those things occurring in the same inning you have no run. With both of them occurring in the same inning you do.
Coincidentally enough you also have an equal number of runs scored as you do RBI awarded.
What a shock!
Yes which is why they are the better indicator for RS!
because they ACTUALLY count towards the stat in question.
And OB is not always an RS! A Slg does not mean that every hit made was that good or show that there was even a runner on base TO score!
They have nothing to do with RS yet the Saber folks will tell you OBP and SLG are all about something they have NOTHING to do with!
And RBI is bad because it has EVERYTHING to do with RS!
You team with the most RS opportunities does not win the game!
The one that SCORES those opportunities does!
A team could have 10 hits and never score a single run!
Another team could have two hits and score two!
And in almost every case an RBI will be involved!
In Football if the guy on the other side has less yards he can still win the game though can’t he? If he SCORES MORE POINTS!
You see the example you gave is the OBP, It seems REASONABLE that the QB with the best recievers in yardage led the league in passing, but what was his record?
QB with lesser yards but more points is the winner! He got the points (RBI)
A team with an awful OBP will never, ever, ever lead the league in either RBI or runs scored. It’s OBP that correlates to runs/RBI.
Yeah but they will be higher in the RS list than teams with a higher OBP!
Or did you forget the 21-7 list again?
The leaders on the RS are all the guys who lead in RBI OBP is just a sideaffect of that good baseball!
Because those RBIs in most cases WERE OBs and RS as well!
But you can’t say all OBs wer RS!
The fatal flaw in your theory!
Nope. Wrong. RBI and runs are the same thing. If anything, it’s the run scored causes the RBI because there will ever, ever be an RBI recorded without a run scored. But there can be a run without an RBI. So what “causes” what? You probably can’t find three teams that finished in the bottom 5 in OBP and the top 5 in runs in their league in the live ball era. Please try. And if you happen to, also note where they finished in slugging. I’ll bet it’s overwhelmingly near the top of the league.
No YOUR WRONG! An RBI is awarded to the guy at the plate that did something that scores a run! He does not have to score, Does not even have to get a hit or OB to GET an RBI (Sac Fly)!
You really are making NO SENSE dude!
They are two TOTALLY different stats!
An RBI merely means that an RS was created by the batter! In Part (Drove an OB in) or in Whole (via HR) the AB produced an RS!
“You probably can’t find three teams that finished in the bottom 5 in OBP and the top 5 in runs in their league in the live ball era”
Not top 5 since thats too extreme, How about top and bottom 10 though?
2010 Toronto Blue Jays! 26th in OBP 9th In RS because they were 9th in RBI!
2009 Texas Rangers! 24th in OBP 10th in RS and RBI!
What happened I thought RBI drives RS and that you can not score lots of runs without lots of OBP?
Your Theory is nothing but assumption and REALITY proves what you THINK is key to scoring runs is NOT KEY!
Just in case you forgot the comparison that showed how wrong your idea that OBP correlates I will repost it for you!
2010 team RS/RBI/OBP
Yankees 1/1/1 (Both sides correlate)
Boston 2/2/4 (I win one)
Tampa 3/3/10 (thats two!)
Cincy 4/4/6 (Thats Three!)
Texas 5/7/5 (you win one)
Minny 6/5/2 (My correlation is closer to actual than yours! thats four!)
Philly 7/8/13 ( Again my ranking is closest to correlation thats five for me one for you!)
Rockies 8/6/7 (I’m gonna give you this one! I still lead 5-2!)
Blue jays 9/9/26 (OHHH that had to hurt! I lead 6-2! but EPIC fail for OBP!)
White Sox 10/12/11 (I’m generous today I’ll give you a match! 6-3!
2009 Same stuff!
Yanks 1/1/1 Same as this year! another push!
Angels 2/2/3 (score now 7-3)
red Sox 3/3/2 (Another one for me! 8-3!)
Phillies 4/4/14 (Ohhh abother Blue jays incident! 9-3 my favor!)
Twins 5/5/5 (hey another push!)
Rockies 6/8/7 ( 9-4 oh I feel the heat now!!!)
Tampa 7/7/6 (Sorry charlie 10-4)
Blue Jays (oh no!) 8/6/15 (You hate them don’t you? 11-4)
Brewers 9/9/8 ( Sorry close but I was closer 12-4)
Rangers 10/10/24 (OUCH! bet you wish they were more like the blue jays! 13-4!
2008 lets try it one more time maybe third time is the charm for OBP.
Texas 1/1/3 (All Mine! I lead 14-4)
Cubs 2/2/2 Hey a push!
Red Sox 3/3/1 ( 15-4 my favor)
Twins 4/4/9 (16-4 Oh the agony!)
Tigers 5/6/7 (whose your daddy? RBI! 17-4 now!)
White Sox 6/5/2 (Oh well 18-4 in RBI correlating better than OBP!)
Indians 7/7/11 (19-4 and only 3 more teams to go in 2008!)
Phillies 8/8/15 (20-4 and you must feel pretty foolish by now!)
Mets (hey!) 9/10/8 (I feel bad so will give you this one despite both being equally off by one 20-5)
Yankees 10/9/6 (21-5)
So RBI spanks OBP in RS correlation 21 times to 5
of those 21 I correlated EXACTLY with RS 15 times!
Of your 5 you correlated EXACTLY with RS ONCE!
here endith the lesson!
Metsie, RS and RBI have to correlate the best because 99% of the time you cannot have a RS without an RBI and 100% of the time you cannot have an RBI without a RS.
Furthur to that RS and RBI are two different measurements of the same exact thing.
Essentially what your saying is the team that scores more runs, the most often, correlates best with the team that finishes with the best record.
Well of course it does, How could it not? 100% of the time you score more runs than your opponent you win the game. Same as 100% of the time your team is awarded an RBI, you’ve scored a run.
“Metsie, RS and RBI have to correlate the best because 99% of the time you cannot have a RS without an RBI and 100% of the time you cannot have an RBI without a RS.”
Right! because they are related!
So what is the point of looking at OBP since it does NOT relate better than what does DIRECTLY relate?
If your looking for red apples you count red apples!
You don’t count ALL apples and assume that because you have more generic apples that most of them will be red as a consequence of the fact there are more apples!
There could just as easily be more green apples!
So collecting more apples doesn’t ensure you get more Red apples and therefore the goal should not be on the apples but the red! The ones you ACTUALLY WANT!
What does the term “Moneyball” has to do with OBP? Moneyball refers to taking advantage of undervalued aspects of game. OBP is no longer undervalued. Why don’t people call this team “the patient Mets” or “getting on base Mets” or… here’s a thought: The offensively improved Mets!
Because then the people who don’t understand sabermetrics would have nothing to complain about. THEY call it “Moneyball Mets.” People who actually know what’s what don’t.
Excuse me but we didn’t claim OBP was the key to our success!
Craig seemed to suggest it somewhat and Lennon most definitly did!
In either case (OBP or NOT)
The fact remains that the stats YOU tend to favor sabermetrically were all BAD for the players acquired via Moneyball and great for the guys who were not!
Your own scale of what is good in a comparison of who was gotten via moneyball and who was not!
well, this year’s higher OBP did result in more runs scored, in that sense it was the key to a more productive offense.
Assuming that the stats you claim XtreemIcon is OBP, and by “acquired via Moneyball” you mean acquired because of their high OBP, you would making the mistake of concluding that Alderson brought in players like Harris, Hairston, Emaus, etc were because of their ability to get on base instead of other factors like versatility, power, defense, and cost. (and in the case of Emaus, he was never given a fair shot, unless you call 42 PAs a fair shot.)
“well, this year’s higher OBP did result in more runs scored, in that sense it was the key to a more productive offense.”
Did it? Or did the higher RBI score more runs?
And using ANY STAT or SYSTEM you want….
Who were the guys who scored those MORE RUNS?
Was it any of the guys Alderson acquired presumably using moneyball?
Or was it everyone BUT who he Acquired?
Or are we trying to suggest that OMAR was using Moneyball so Moneyball must be why we succeeded?
lennon says it was Moneyball, If it was then Omar must have been using it because it was his guys who made the higher runs happen.
Not Sandy’s!
it wasn’t the OBP cause it never is the OBP is what I’m trying to say, gettiong on base alone DOES NOT GUARANTEE A RUN!
But the RBI does! And because it went up so did the ON and the RS!
Because most RBI’s as an act are also recorded as OBs!
Nope, the higher OBP caused the higher runs scored AND higher RBI total. Remember, runs and RBI are essentially the same thing, both results of the cause.
PROVE IT! I Proved RBI goes higher even for teams that don’t have good OBP!
21-5 it proved that having a higher OBP does not mean higher RBI NOR higher RS!
DONE DONE DONE….Deep in the heart of Texas (and Toronto!)!
The higher RBI total cause more WINS and TITLES, not the OBP.
The other day i made fun of the fact here that the Mets team OBP went up in a 10-1 loss and I’m sure you saw it.
Drive that run in to win the game – case closed. Don’t waste my time with runner’s have to get on base because that’s like telling me it’s important to have a tennis racket to play tennis. Just because you have a tennis racket doesn’t mean anything. Hit the ball to win the game/match
No RBIs? No Title. Oh but you can still have plenty of walks and on base percentages to count to your heart’s content to keep you busy during a losing off season. Kind of like what we’re doing now.
“The higher RBI total cause more WINS and TITLES, not the OBP.”
No, the higher runs scored caused the more wins. The RBIs are a by product of the run scored. You can score a run without awarding a player an RBI.
RBIs don’t really tell you much about the score. It just tells you what hitter got more fantasy points.
“You can score a run without awarding a player an RBI.” but in those cases it wasn’t because of what the offense did but what the defense did!
You can’t credit the offense for something the defense gave them!
An RBI is not a product of a the run scoring.
The run couldn’t score UNTIL the batter did something that allowed him to which is the same ACT that caused the RBI, the RS and in most cases added to the OB!
Since the RBI is credited to the person who CAUSED the run to score it is the the best indicator for who is more important to the RS that resulted since it was his actions and not the actions of the scorer that created the RS!
If not for the batter the runner can not score unless by it’s own means!
Ut needs something else to happen!
In the case of the RBI it is the batter that made it happen.
In the case of the error it was the defense.
UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES can a runner cause himself to score all by himself and his own action. It requires another event from some other player before it is possible!
Even the case of stealing home requires the defense to be asleep at the wheel before it can happen!
Sothe runner can not CREATE the run unless he does it before he ever got on base and hit a HR!
Please stop your ignorance. RBI is not an individual skill or accomplishment. OBP is. You put Granderson in the bottom of the Mariners’ lineup and he wouldn’t have close to 119 RBIs.
Well i’m less interested in an individual skill as you call it and more interested in winning games so I’m more interested in how many RBI’s we get.
So when Mike Piazza hits that dramatic post Sept 11th HR down 2-1 in the bottom of the 8th inning to help beat the Braves and keep the Mets chances alive in a pennant race in 2001, and under those conditions you’re gonna sit there and tell me that’s not an individual skill or accomplishment? Are you insane? Do you think you can perform YOUR job in a related pressure cooker like that? And you’re gonna tell me that’s not an individual skill or accomplishment?
I don’t care WHO is on base at what time of the game the man driving in THAT run, to ME, has a skill AND HE has accomplished something for his team. Not giving that man his due is like telling me you don’t care who scores the winning Touch Down in a football game that you’re only concerned about the players who performed the blocking that allowed him to score.
Sports doesn’t work that way – the guy who creates that run or makes that touchdown HAS accomplished something and it IS an individual skill.
Stop the nonsense already!
Whose ignorant?
Obviously you need a mirror to see!
Guy is on base does he score for doing so or does he require a batter to drive him in?
HR is not an individual skill?
If getting run in isn’t a individual skill why is getting on base one?
How much SKILL is required to be intentionally walked, reach base on an error or to get hit by a pitch?
All are considered OB!
How many RBIs can you get thanks to the Defense?
Only one on a walk!
I consider getting OB by error to be a positive because it gets me one hitter closer to the heart of the order, with one more guy OB and one less out but technically it’s not included in OB%. IBB’s are the decision of the defense. They feel it improves their chances and it’s out of the offenses control and RBI can be awarded on errors under numerous circumstances including a simple dropped SAC fly among others.
I don’t see where skill has to be the overriding consideration though. Winning the game is the only thing that matters. How you win the game is irrelevant except in the understanding of how likely it is to continue winning the way you did.
For instance the Twins got a World Series Championship based on an a lot of things but the 9th inning game 6 bad call by Dekkinger was absolutely HUGE in the whole scheme of that series. A very unlikely way to win, but a win nontheless.
Eliminating an out and adding a baserunner was the double whammy that gave Minn the chance to tie up the Series.
How much skill does it take to be the beneficiary of a bad call in the 9th inning of game 6 in the World Series? None! but yet it was a HUGE turning point. Not something you can count on, plan for, or even hope for but it absolutely had the biggest effect on that Series of any other play. Maybe not the way you always dreamed of winning the World Series but ask anyone on the Twins if they’d give it back.
When your in the middle of a game the last thing you care about is HOW you win. You just care about getting the win. That’s all that matters. Getting the win.
After the game you can discuss or decide if you were lucky or not or if you should have walked a guy or whatever but during the game? Just get me the win. I’ll take it any way I can.
I consider getting OB by error to be a positive because it gets me one hitter closer to the heart of the order.
Positive YES! An act of player SKILL? NO!
If your using OBP to judge HOW GOOD a player is does it make sense to use a stat that gives a player CREDIT for something he didn’t ACHIEVE on his own?
Is a guy who gets hit 50 times in 100 Abs AS GOOS A PLAYER as a guy who gets 50 Hits in the same 100 ABs?
Will OBP tell you which was which?
If your goal is to find the BEST players, if you are EVALUATING PLAYERS then it stands to reason that you should not use a metric that can be created without any ACHIEVEMENT by the batter himself!
The whole point of statistical analysis is to find players based on results to are GOOD!
If you use a credit system that includes things the batter did not accomplish to the batter you are not looking at how GOOD a batter was but how LUCKY he was or how BAD the defense was he was playing against!
No Batter can get an RBI without ACCOMPLISHING something at the plate.
Even a walk in that situation would be more an accompishment of the batter than a normal walk because no pitcher in history has ever INTENTIONALLY walked a batter with the bases loaded!
So even if you think getting a walk is an accomplishment of a batter the guy who does it and gets the RBI (with bases loaded) showed more accomplishment than a guy who merely got intentionally walked or drew a walk with an open base because the pitcher still had a OPTION of walking him that was not present in the bases loaded situation.
If you intend to use LUCK then you need LUCK to know the OBP number is actually an accomplishment of the batter in OBP! Cause getting hit is not an accomplishment and neither is RBOE!
Is it a positive occurance in a baseball game YES! But it is not an accomplishment of the player whose stats went up (in OBP) because of what someone else did wrong!
It was the error (defense) that caused the OB not the batter himself!
And if you use that indifferent to accomplishment stat to judge players then your only going to get what you thought you had if the defense keeps on making those mistakes that caused the batter to get wjhat you deem is positive!
IE you can’t be POSITIVE all the POSITIVES you looked at are going to happen if you get that player…
Because that player did not CAUSE those positives someone else (the Defense) caused them instead.
Great on days when your playing the same bad defense but not great any other time!
who said HR is not an individual skill? stop putting words in other people’s mouths.
“Guy is on base does he score for doing so or does he require a batter to drive him in?”
yep, you just agreed with me. The guy on base usually needs someone to drive him in. Same thing with the guy credited with the RBI – unless he hits a HR he needs someone on base to get that RBI. Rs and RBIs are products the lineup, not just an individual, so those stats are the end result of outcomes from multiple players. But I’m sure you guys have had this moronically obvious argument a million times, which only proves the extent of your ignorance that something so obvious and intuitive can be misunderstood for so long.
AH you see there is no UNLESS for OBP but there is an UNLESS with the RBI isn’t there!
Which means the RBI gets the job done NO MATTER the OBP status and OBP does not without the RBI!
The guy who gets the RBI is the one who got the job done!
Didn’t NEED an OB to get the job done and that means MORE INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT for the RBI guy than the OB guy!
The whole reason to look at stats at all is to dicern individual achievment!
And if RS is the goal you need to go after the guy that ACHIEVES the RS not the guy who needed an achievement from someone else to get it!
Going for OBP in a player is pointless UNLESS you have the RBI guy that scores him!
So go for the RBI guy who will also get OB while he is driving in runs and if you get ALL RBI guys then the conga line of RS you think OB is going to cause is STILL caused but even moreso because EVERYONE is driving in runs and getting the job done, Not just half or a quarter of the job and waiting for someone else to make their effort count!