28
2011
Three Ways The Mets Could Add A Legit Top Of Rotation Starter
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It has been very encouraging to see the Mets ending the 2011 season as the second best hitting team in the National League with a .264 team batting average. Only the St. Louis Cardinals batted higher than the Mets did this season. The Mets not only batted well, but were more patient at the plate, resulting in the second best on-base percentage in the league as well. While the Mets have had trouble hitting homers, they do rank second in the National League and fifth in the majors with 307 doubles.
You would think that such a fine hitting team, who performed this feat in an extreme pitchers park, would finish higher in the standings than fourth place, but you can blame the team’s pitching for that.
If the rumors are true, the offense will get an even greater boost next season with a trimmed down Citi Field along with healthy and full seasons from Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy and David Wright. Of course I’m assuming Jose Reyes will be back too.
So what is the front office going to do to improve the rotation and compliment one of the better offenses in the National League?
Maybe Sandy Alderson can tell us on Thursday when he will hold a press briefing at 1:00 PM to recap the season and I hope discuss some goals for the offseason. We’ll see…
We’ve all heard the excuses ranging from the Mets have no money, all the good pitchers want too much, we should just wait for the kids to develop, and of course the always fashionable – the free agent market stinks. The latter worked wonders last offseason and may prove useful again this offseason for those looking for an excuse to stand pat.
I’ve never seen a fan base as preoccupied with preserving their owners profits and safeguarding their financial interests as the Mets fan base. We should get some sort of an award for that. Maybe one day, Mets fans can help the country run the economy better than the last two administrations have…
I hate losing and I hate wallowing in the mud of mediocrity just as much. I would rather try to win and fail than do nothing and succeed. But that’s just me and I don’t expect everyone to be as gung-ho about winning as I am.
I have three ideas on how the Mets can improve the rotation and help avoid making 2012 yet another throwaway season. If you’re one of those who would rather wait for Zack Wheeler in 2014 (hopefully) or don’t think the Wilpons should pay another dime to improve the rotation, you might want to stop reading this post now.
1. Sign C.J. Wilson
In his second full season as a starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson established himself as one of the top starters in the American league. The 30-year old southpaw is exactly what the doctor ordered for a Mets rotation shrouded with questions and lacking a true ace. After a solid season in 2010 in which Wilson posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 33 starts, the California native was even better this season finishing with a 2.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 223 innings pitched. He also racked up 206 strikeouts while walking 74 batters. What I found most impressive about his 2011 season was that in his last ten starts he allowed two or fewer runs nine times. Talk about a strong finish…
The Mets first round pick is protected this season, so unlike some of the other teams contending teams that will be bidding on Wilson, the Mets won’t have to worry about losing their top draft pick.
The only thing that can keep Wilson from being a Met is money which has suddenly become more important than winning around Flushing in the last twelve months. So while the Yankees, Red Sox, and even the Nationals set their sites on Wilson this offseason, the best solution to the Mets rotation problems probably won’t even be a consideration, even though it won’t cost the Mets any prospects or a top draft pick – only money. For a team that just shaved $65 million dollars in future this season and plays in the largest baseball market in the world, that’s kind of sad… and pathetic.
2. Sign Yu Darvish
Who is Yu Darvish you ask? Only the number one pitching prospect in the world, that’s who. The Japanese right-hander has electrifying stuff and nobody doubts he will make a dramatic impact for the MLB team lucky enough to win his services this offseason.
The Yankees, Nationals, Braves, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays and Rangers have all expressed interest and will make significant eforts to land the 25-year old phenom who was called by one scout the best international pitcher of all time.
Darvish currently has a 1.54 ERA with an off the charts 10.6 K/9 ratio. In his last four phenominal seasons he has a1.81 ERA, and In seven seasons in the NPB, he is 90-35 with a 2.05 ERA and has won 15 or more games in four of the last five seasons. His repertoire includes several plus offerings including a two-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, splitter, and a changeup. At the 2009 WBC his fastball was clocked between 97-100 mph.
Jon Morosi of FOX Sports believes Rangers GM Jon Daniels will be very aggressive in trying to land the Japanese phenom, Daniels has been scouting him ever since they lost Cliff Lee to the Phillies. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos just returned from Japan and told reporters he wanted to see Darvish pitch for himself and that he wouldn’t have flown there if he wasn’t seriously considering posting for him.
All told, when you include the posting fee and contract, experts believe that acquiring Darvish could cost as much $85-120 million dollars. Can you imagine someone this young and this exciting and oozing with so much star-power being the ace of the Mets for the next 6-8 years? Stop drooling and get those dirty little thoughts out of your head, the Mets are not interested, have not scouted him, and are flat broke remember?
3. Trade For James Shields
Last month, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Tampa Bay Rays might be willing to trade right-handed pitcher James Shields to try and add some more offense this offseason.
Another reason I believe Shileds could swap teams this season is because in terms of trade value no other Rays pitcher is probably worth more right now, and for a team that has big payroll issues Shields’ salary goes up to $7 million next year. Currently, Shields is earning $4.25 million which is 10% of the Rays $42 million dollar payroll. I just don’t see them willing to devote almost 20% of their payroll to one player and it’s no secret they are in the market for more offense.
Oh and one more thing, the Rays also have Matt Moore in their system who is nearly major league ready and some believe is the best pitching prospect in baseball.
So now that I somewhat established a few reasons why Shields may be available, now lets take a closer look and see why I believe he could be the Mets ace for the next two seasons.
This guy is the antithesis to Mike Pelfrey – a warrior in every sense of the word. In a must win game he beat the Yankees last night holding them two runs on six hits in 8 2/3 innings, and leading the Rays to a 5-2 win. Shields will finish the season two outs shy of 250 innings and leading the majors with 11 complete games this season.
He ends the regular season with 16 wins, four of them shutouts, and a pristine 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He also finishes the season with 225 strikeouts and a 3.64 K/BB rate.
The 29-year old has a 3.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in six seasons with the Rays and is under team control for 2012 and 2013. He’s another pitcher that would look great pitching at the front of the Mets rotation, but unlike the first two options that required big-time cash, Shields would cost the Mets players and prospects. The Rays are desperate for a shortstop, a corner outfileder, a DH and they will need a first baseman as Casey Kotchman becomes a free agent. I see plenty of possibilities here. Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada or Lucas Duda might all sound tempting to the Rays. Maybe a combination of one or two of them plus a prospect… Maybe David Wright… Maybe Jason Bay and a boatload of money to sweeten the pot… Who knows… I think it’s worth exploring.
* * * *
I initially intended to post five offseason options for the Mets to add an ace to the rotation; the final two being trading for Matt Cain from the offense starved Giants, and Zack Grienke from the Brewers who may not have the resources to sign and keep all of their stars heading for free agency this year and next.
While I believe all of these options are viable ones for the Mets, and that one or even two of them would compliment an emerging offensive force and solidify the Mets chances for post season finishes for the next few years, I’m of the opinion that such thoughts have become unimportant in these parts.
The current plan as I understand it, will be to run a constant pipeline of farmhands to the majors with the hope that we strike gold with one or two of them. As you all know the odds of that happening are very long as most prospects never even make it to the majors and only about 25% of them have MLB careers of five years or longer. Not to mention that we could be in for a very long wait.
Win now or hope you can win five years from now with no guarantee – that’s the choice it seems.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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sign CJ wilson and make a trade for someone like shield will make us a force, question is, who would we trade for shield? if shield is on the block i am sure other teams will be interested, and usually the rays want good prospects, they got pitching so they will trying to acquire position players, imo the best we have is tejada, i will not rid of him as i want him and reyes to be our middle infields for years to come.
i’d trade david wright, once put on the block he’d be better than anything else on the free agent market, since all the players on the FA market will be garbage, but, would a team be willing to part with pitching to add a guy who will be making $15 million with back issues maybe? we can all speculate, but sandy is the one in charge, is time for him and his “all star” crew to earn their money.
Not to mention, they have Evan Longoria at 3B.
ummmm. i never mention trade wright for shields, just trade him for pitching… i know the rays have longoria, who is about what.. 3x better than wright? is that about right? yes i think so
Everyone wants to see the Mets win. Signing big free agents is no guarantee of winning either or haven’t you noticed? The argument for signing a free agent when you have a protected first round pick is slightly more palatable than when you don’t but has cost us an awful lot of future talent every time we’ve done it and overall helped us very little on the field.
We’ve given up #2 picks in recent years for David Weathers, Roger Cedeno, Cliff Floyd, Pedro Martinez and Jason Bay. All got hurt, played poorly or both.
Floyd and Pedro played well when they were healthy and I loved watching Pedro pitch but just like Weathers and Cedeno who were traded for salary relief, we got nothing for them going forward when they left here.
You just can’t keep turning your 1st and 2nd round pick into a guy who gets hurt or under performs every other year and then get nothing for them after they leave. You could fill an entire All Star game from guys who were drafted only in the 2nd round. A very credible one and you could have that young All Star in your lineup or rotation for 6-10 years or more, in their prime, not after it.
Wilson’s a terrific young pitcher, especially in that hitters park and could be worth the investment of a 2nd round pick. The competition will be fierce though and I’ll bet he settles in the 6/120 range unless he takes a discount to play where he wants and that sure as hell isn’t here. If money were unlimited I wouldn’t be against Wilson as long as every reasonable precaution is taken to check out his health as throughly as possible.
Bidding on Darvish is going to be insane. Last guy to get the hype in Japan that Darvish has is Igarashi. Pass.
Shields is most likely available for the right price and with two years left a very worthwhile trade target. Very durable. ELEVEN complete games this year. Tampa was certainly pitching him like he was a rental. Every possible precaution would have to be taken if we did trade for him.
Davis, Murphy, Evans, Duda, Dykstra, Welch. Lots of first basemen or potential candidates. Tampa does have a fantastic SS prospect Hak Ju Lee who looks good to go in 2014 (on both sides) I wouldn’t be in favor of including Tejada. Even Valdespin would scare me. Pitchers are off the table. Flores/Duda/Puello would be along the lines of what they want and that’s a lot. You do get two years and even if you can’t get the guy resigned you will hopefully get a couple of picks so it’s not a dead end but could open up a few holes down the road at depending on injuries and prospect development.
This is the best of the three options by far.
Excellent piece Joe and you took the words right out of my mouth about mets fans around here all of a sudden worrying about money that’s not theirs. I see it in almost every post and just this morning I commented on someone worrying about how much the Yankees and Phillies are spending and how it may affect them down the road.
They should be worrying about how much the Yankees and Phillies have been WINNING.
We even had a reader here the other day that was so happy and caught up with how much Mike Pelfrey’s salary was and it wasn’t that bad that he stunk because we didn’t pay a lot for him to stink. That’s the way people think now and it’s PATHETIC.
that’s because their mind set became a moneyball mindset..
There you go again, using words you don’t know the meaning of.
What is moneyball? Define it. Can you?
ALEX, DON’T KNOCK IT UNTIL U COUNT THE POCKET CHANGE, A 100-120M PAYROLL IS CERTAINLY NOT AS MISERLY AS IT’S PORTRAYED AS U EXAMINE THE 8 POSTSEASON PARTICIPANTS THIS YEAR, THEIR STARTING SEASON PAYROLLS WERE:
NYY 206M
TB 76M
DET 122M
TEX 55M
STL 93M
PHL 141M
MIL 81M
AZ 60M
OBVIOUSLY U DON’T NEED TO SPEND LIKE DRUNKEN SAILORS THROWING MONEY @ EVERY PROBLEM;HOWEVER WISE DIVERSE SPENDING IS CERTAINLY A MORE PROVEN SUCCESSFUL FORMULA
THE NYM’ HAVE BOTH A HUGE ELEPHANT(386M) IN PICARD AS WELL AS A DAZED GORILLA(55M) IN SANTANA’S UNKNOWN CONTRIBUTION OCCUPYING ROOM SPACE IT’S NO LONGER A MATTER OF PATCHING HOLES, USING PERCEIVED STRENGTHS.
AS SO MANY SALIVATE OVER THE CONCEPTS OF WRIGHT, BAY, DAVIS & DUDA CONQUERING DRAWN IN WALLS THEY IGNORE THE OBVIOUS OMINOUS THOUGHTS OF OPPONENTS FEASTING UPON NO LINGER “GOOD ENOUGH” PITCHERS FRUSTRATINGLY ATTEMPTING TO DEFEND THOSE SAME DRAWN IN WALLS FROM OPOSITION ASSAULT.
WE’VE TRIED & PROVEN THE PATCHWORK APPROACH, “1 MORE PLAYER NEEDED”, ‘BUY IT ON THE MARKET’ APPROACH IS AS LIKELY TO FAIL AS PLANT,WATER & CULTIVATE ON FARM, ONLY QUICKER CONSIDER THIS: WE’VE PLANTED & CULTIVATED; REYES,WRIGHT,NIESE,DAVIS, DUDA, MURPHY,TEJADA,ET AL
ANS MARKETED FOR THE ONE MORES OF: PEDRO,BELTRAN,WAGNER,K-ROD,SANTANA
YET ON THE DAY AFTER THE CLOSE OF 2011, ON WHOM DOES OUR FUTURE RELY?
PERHAPS IT’S WHY THROUGHOUT THE HISTORY OF MAN THE HOMECOOKED MEAL IS FAVORED OVER THE RESTAURANT FARE REPEATEDLY.
CONSERVATIVELY SPEAKING REYES’ COMMANDING 20M OF THAT PROPOSED 110M? PROJECTION WITH ONLY 65M MORE BEING PREORDAINED(SANTANA,BAY,WRIGHT,CARASCO,BYRDAK), HOW, AGAIN ARE U ALLOCATING MORE, JOE IS YOUR MIDDLE NAME HUSSEIN? BY ANY CHANCE? AT LEAST HE GETS TO LEGALLY PRINT WHAT MORE HE NEEDS!
The Mets are not one or two players away from even fielding a contender. Adding one or two of those pitchers would hardly make a dent in the standings. What’s the big deal about moving from 4th place to 3rd place? You really believe adding a Shileds or Wilson would make any difference to this team? Look at that bullpen, or 2B, LF, RF, CF, C all positions that need help and upgrades. Why have a solid rotation when the rest of the team blows?
and one pitcher doesn’t give you a solid rotation.
What? Why have a solid rotation when the rest of the team blows? Did you contuse your noggin? This team hit extremely well this year, minus Reyes and Wright for long periods and Ike for even longer. Putting together a solid rotation, plus a closer and 2 other BP arms will vastly improve this team.
The only one of the three you mentioned that I disagree with is Darvish.
I just have not seen even one of the many Japanese superstars make the transition and maintain what it was everyone thought they were getting.
They seem to start off well and then once the MLB adjusts to them it all falls apart.
And they never seem to make the counter adjustment needed to succeed again. I don’t know if that is due to communication issues between coach and player, stubborness to mechanics on the part of the player and I certainly don’t mean to suggest any racial reasons for their lack of success.
It’s just that none of the imports that have come over has ever showed me any long term sustained success! Almost all wind up being sent to the pen to finish out their contracts!
I think that CJ Wilson would be a good pitcher to sign. Although with Darvish, you don’t know what your going to get from him, considering he will be a MLB rookie pretty much since he hasn’t played in the US. We all remember Dice K. He was only good for so long.
How about Mark Beurhle (spelling?) I think he would be a good 2. He throws strikes, a bulldog no nonsense mentality, leadership skills and obviously a great fielder. I read that he would like a switch to the NL. Darvish is enticing but Matsuzaka comes to mind. However, I haven’t heard any rumors about poor work habits following Yu like it did Dice-K. It doesn’t matter though because this team wants to spend what few dollars it has on the likes of Pelfrey and some more retreads again.
Good idea Marie. Also Buehrle is a lefty, which is always good to match up against the phillies with, and he’ll be 33 next season so there could still be some tread on those tires.
I am not sure how they can add a top of the line starter but if Chien-Ming Wang does not re-sign with Washington, I would take a chance with him. He knows how to pitch in NY and look how he finished this season.
I dont believe anyone is opposed to spending, the problem has been that we have not spent on the right players. Bay, Perez, Castillo were all bad decisions. The Phillies spend and always seem to get their money’s worth. I would have NO problem spending on Wilson because he is young and lefthanded and pretty damn good. I’m leery of Darvish, and of course Shields would be a no brainer.
not even sure about the Phils spending. Worked out on the SP for sure, but not so much on position guys. a couple 1/2 seasons out of Ibanez, and palanco has been Meh at best.
lee and Halladay of course more than offset that, but as always, big $$ long term deals for SPs already into their early/mid 30s is a crap shoot.
I do think they will spend. Hopefully just smarter. And anyone they make a large investment in is going to be someone they look at as a key guy for at least 3-4 years. Reyes of course fits that. CJ Wilson would too.
Other than that, probably 1-2 year stop gap/fillers like most every team uses.
“We’ve all heard the excuses ranging from the Mets have no money, all the good pitchers want too much, we should just wait for the kids to develop, and of course the always fashionable – the free agent market stinks. The latter worked wonders last offseason and may prove useful again this offseason for those looking for an excuse to stand pat.”
By “excuses” you must mean “real world issues that only the willfully blind disregard”.
“I’ve never seen a fan base as preoccupied with preserving their owners profits and safeguarding their financial interests as the Mets fan base. ”
OK, that is downright insulting. Not only do you have to lie about what other people are saying, you take a very condescending approach to it.
The reality is what you are preaching is what we’ve been doing for years. And what has it done for us? Half the time the Mets are on SportCenter, there’s Benny Hill music with it. Deadspin has a encyclopedia’s worth of articles with the hash tag LOLMETS. How many sitcoms make a joke about the Mets and their futility? Whenever the Yankee fans around me have a bad loss, the go to line is “at least we’re not the Mets”. That’s what checkbook baseball has bought us. It has bought us neither a championship nor dignity.
Are people supposed to apologize for wanting to build a sustainable winner? Are we supposed to feel bad about wanting to get away from an obviously broken method?
No one here wants to look like the Marlins. That is a what a cheap, greedy owner actually looks like. But, aren’t you sick and tired of being the goddamned Cubs? With absentee owners that just mail big checks to whoever can sell tickets and jerseys in April? Is it so wrong to try a new approach?
Look at what you are advocating:
A 30 year old who has 2, count ‘em 2, full seasons as a starter. That doesn’t raise at least a tiny red flag?
A Japanese pitcher. When was the last time a Japanese pitcher was a major success in the majors? The Red Sox got what..2 good years out of Dice K? Do you have especially fond memories of Hideo Nomo that you’d like to share?
James Shields… not totally disagreeable, actually. If he was willing to sign to a 2 or 3 year extension or so upon completion of the trade, perhaps. My real concern there is the dearth of quality position players in our upper minors.
“I hate losing and I hate wallowing in the mud of mediocrity just as much.”
Then why do you insist on using the same methods that put us in this mediocrity? Why do you insist on insulting the people who want to live to see “New York Mets” stop being a punch line for hack writers?
I bunch of us keep saying that this is the NEW YORK Mets (this was OUR town a short time ago!), and we need to pony up some $$ to sign Wilson—who, along with a cagey Santana coming back will give us a good rotation: Wilson, Santana, Dickey, Niese, and Gee. Non-tender Pelfrey and don’t sign Capuano, if you want to save money.
No, that’s not enough pitching. We need to rebuild the bullpen—with Peralta and Francisco, the latter of whom can close.
The OF should be OK, especially with the walls lowered and in somewhat. Bay should hit 20-25 HR, as should Duda. Pagan for one more year? Maybe a trade could replace him, and he could be non-tendered, too.
I’m OK with Thole as the main catcher for now.
And the INF, with Reyes, Murphy/Tejada, Davis, and Wright should provide more power.
We can contend with this team. The Wilpons need to spend some money to boost attendance and revenues. $120 million should do it next year—not that much for the NEW YORK Mets!
I think Shields is the best option of these 3. Provided we could resign Reyes I think we trade Tejada and Murph for him.
Then since we need to open a spot in the rotation we trade pelf to Colorado for Streets.
This would be our team next year.
Reyes – SS
Havens/ Turner or Valdespin – 2B (my money’s on Havens finally totally breaking out)
Duda – RF
Wright – 3B
Davis – 1B
Pagan or Cpt. Kirk – CF
Bay – LF
Thole/Palino C
Lineup has the chance to be great if everyone has a healthy season.
Rotation
Shields
Santana
Dickey
Nisse
Gee
Sheets, brydk, parnell, Beato, and a few others in the pen.
We have Familia and Harvey knocking on the door of the rotation with McCugh and other suprising prospects as insurance / bullpen arms
the word is complement, not compliment. the root word is “complete”