23
2011
Shut Up With The “Moneyball Mets”!
An article by 
I came across a piece yesterday (linked by Craig Lerner in his article) by Dave Lennon of Newsday that caught my eye.
Is the ”Moneyball” approach paying off for the Mets?
In some respects, the answer to that question is yes, as they have climbed to the top of the National League in targeted offensive categories such as walks and on-base percentage.
What a statement. Look, I’ll be honest here. I don’t like sabermetrics, and I don’t like the Moneyball approach. It worked with the Oakland A’s? That’s cute. They had to do it because they were forced into that situation. Necessity is the mother of creation, yes? Their approach to signing players, valuing prospects, and analyzing specific aspects of the game was impressive. They discounted traditional wisdom and found success for the short term by using sabermetrics to analyze. You can see Sandy Alderson employing those techniques by signing undervalued players such as Capuano, Bucholz, Young – which by the way, are three signings that I did and still do support because they were cheap and low risk. Hey, injuries happen and that will be that. (And for the record, no, I’m not supporting signing Chris Young again. It was worth a shot, though.)
Now think again about what Lennon said. So apparently, the philosophy for signing players and valuing them differently has a direct correlation to the fact that the team is walking more and getting on base more overall? Just because we have a GM who uses sabermetrics (focusing on getting on base more), the players magically got better at it? That’s Moneyball in action? Don’t feed me that crap. It’s more of a testament to the fact that the Mets played their hearts out for the majority of the season than it is to the Moneyball theory. What I am saying, is that the GM does NOT have 100% control of what happens on the field. He does not play the games nor is he some kind of puppet master that controls how his players perform. He can put together a team, but what happens after that is a combination of what that player is capable of plus the HUMAN ELEMENT.
That’s my problem with sabermetrics. It does not nor can it ever account for the human element. Things such as emotions, attitude, and even growth. I’ll allow the SABR crowd a few seconds to laugh at that. News Flash – Believe it or not, there was a lot of talent on this roster. Nobody could have accounted for the injuries to Davis and Daniel Murphy – and there was even hope that Santana could have been back in July. Even with not one significant addition during this offseason (releasing Perez and Castillo was probably the highlight), this team still is going to finish very close to a .500 season.
Many of the Mets younger players grew and progressed as MOST young players do: Murphy became a more patient and mature hitter, Ike was in the midst of a breakout campaign, and Tejada was no longer over-matched at the plate. Wright was returning to his old self, Reyes having the best season of his career, Beltran was swinging with authority, hell, even Bay showed some flashes this season!
So without the offensive and defensive contributions of Ike Davis, and without the contributions of Daniel Murphy, and without an ace or even number two starter, and without a closer for three months, and without Carlos Beltran – arguably the best hitter on the team at the time of the trade, this team is finishing close to .500 for the season. That’s about 81 wins. In my book, 90 wins is a damn good season and that’s only nine more than .500.
So let’s say the Mets finish with 78 wins. Don’t you think that half a season from Santana, Carlos Beltran staying in the lineup, and a non-injured Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy could have gotten this team to near 90 wins and at least kept us in the wild card chase?
Having Alderson at the helm can lead to a interesting future for the Mets. He was brought on to cut payroll, make smarter decisions in terms of long-term deals, and perhaps draft prospects who reflect their sabermetric ideals. The difference is: The A’s were forced to work with an extremely low payroll, the Mets are not.
If Alderson wants to cut payroll and not deal out long-term contracts (except maybe a 5 year in the direction of Jose Reyes), that’s fine with me. If he’s here to cut payroll and NOT try to help us win (which seems idiotic), I’d be pissed off. But on both sides, the jury is still out – at least until the end of this offseason.
Bottom line in my eyes – We will never be the Moneyball Mets because we have more payroll accessible to us and that’s great. I don’t want to see the Moneyball Mets.
So what happens in the offseason if Alderson simply signs Reyes and a closer like he said he would, and that’s all?
Is that his formula for winning or just some token moves while keeping payroll on the down low?
Obviously GMs are never hired to create a losing franchise, but after this offseason, we’ll know more as to whether the main priority for this front office is winning OR cutting payroll. It can be both, but there will be a point where they will clash.
As to the original point – No, the Mets aren’t walking more because of the result of some Moneyball experiment or the direct result of Alderson’s sabermetric Jedi Mind Tricks.
These current Mets players, almost all of which are Minaya’s and not Alderson’s, are simply progressing, learning and becoming better hitters. The players are evolving, fighting hard and showing resilience – if you’ve watched the games, you know what I mean.
About the Author: Satish Ram
I am a Senior Writer and Editor here at MetsMerized - where I specialize in Minor League coverage. I have been on the staff since 2007 and I am currently in my third semester of college in New York City. You can find me at www.facebook.com/SatishRam or @SilverHeatMMO. Feel free to message me - I love talking about the Mets or baseball overall with anybody.
108 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- DrDooby: on So Where Are All Those Moneyball Players?: Ike had a .735 OPS last season...
- DrDooby: on So Where Are All Those Moneyball Players?: Yes, Sandy hasn't been honest with fans...
- Metsie: on So Where Are All Those Moneyball Players?: You say that but I guess you...
- Metsie: on So Where Are All Those Moneyball Players?: What did Ike do in the last...
- Metsie: on Mets Need More Time To Get Better Understanding Of Ike Davis?: Watch how quickly this backtracks... So Sabers is...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5391 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
satish,
great post, i am surprise my friend, just as the young mets are growing so are you as a writer, i think is fair when you said: ” If he’s here to cut payroll and NOT try to help us win (which seems idiotic), I’d be pissed off. But on both sides, the jury is still out – at least until the end of this offseason.”
i guess we will see during this upcoming offseason what he does, he got a pass imo this past offseason because of money issues, so everything that went on was omar’s fault regardless, now that we shed out ALL kinds of bad contracts and salary, let’s see how active we will be in the offseason.. the jury still out is the right word, but if he lets reyes go and signs another bunch of “low risks high reward” players then i’d be reluctant to say he’s not here to win but just reduce payroll and moneyball us fans to death..
funny how ppl keep mentioning moneyball, when the moneyballers haven’t won SH**!!
He got a pass this offseason? From who? You?
Man that has got to be the funniest one of all time.
Thanks for the laugh.
well, he got a pass from EVERYONE BUT ME… it was obvious that if did horribly it was gonna be omar’s fault, and if we did good this year it was gonna be because of him, since we did horrible and sucked, then is omar’s fault because there was no money, NO EXCUSES for this offseason coming up, although apologist of his likeyou are already conceiding the 2012 just for the sake of having a complete homegrown squad except for a trade at catcher from the reds for jason bay and his salary right?
“it was obvious that if did horribly it was gonna be omar’s fault, and if we did good this year it was gonna be because of him”
You mean like you guys who keep pushing how good Omar’s guys are doing, but the team’s losing because of Alderson? Yeah, that’s fair and balanced.
Not to blame Sandy directly here because the budget (that is set somewhat by ownership) was the limiting factor…
But if we had managed to get Lee say (not saying we could) or improve the pitching in a meaningful way, Don’t you think our season and playoff hopes might still be going?
If we had improved the pen, which all of us knew before Sandy being hired was KEY to our needs, Where would we be right now?
I personally don’t blame Sandy for the fact that didn’t happen.
But it can be claimed that not spending on the things we need and instead going for the cheap cost us quite a few wins that if gotten would put us in the running for at least a wildcard right now!
And to be clear, not saying he SHOULD have only that he COULD have if things were different.
Does he deserve blame for what he got? Probably not. Does he deserve credit for where we improved? Again probably not unless you want to credit him with promoting Omar guys who deserved promotions starting off with the manager terry Collins who got the best he could out of what he had and followed by all the players most people wanted Sandy to dump based on the fact they did not show up on BA’s top 100 prospect list yet were a big part of the offensive success this team has showed this year!
It’s a double edged sword and while I don’t really BLAME Sandy for falling short I also CAN’T credit him with what improved!
And if he had seen the good he already had coming (who possibly could) and improved around it the season might be very different right now!
If you believe there is enough to CREDIT Sandy with then you have to admit there is also enough to KNOCK him on because he didn’t improve enough and where he focused and what he got as a result was not really an improvment at all!
Thats if your being FAIR and non partisan. Unfortunatly there is less fairness and impartiality being posted around here than we have Cy Young pitchers in our rotation!
Good post.
Yes, throwing out more cash and focusing what little was available on one player may have gotten us a couple more wins…this year.
And that has been the problem. It’s always, “how do we win a few more games this year” rather than looking at the long term goal. Building a system where free agents are an option rather than a necessity.
Your the only one (aside from maybe Wilpon) that worries about what the payroll number is!
We could have spent more on Lee AND all the scrubs we eventually signed!
And we would have won more games!
Could have won more games if we just spent a little more to get better players for the Pen than what we got!
Didn’t do it!
because we were more concerned with saving money than we were with winning ballgames!
You are more concerned with money than winning!
You prove it almost every time you open your mouth!
Don’t bother to reply IGNORE MODE is again switched on!
I’m concerned with the long term. Like I said, you focus on winning a few more games this year and to hell with the rest.
Look at the problems we’re going to have this offseason trying to protect guys from the rule V draft.
I clearly stated that we would eat Bay’s salary for two years, not the option if it vests in my comment and include Murphy in that proposal but thanks for changing my words.
If Reyes walks it will be becuase Reyes wants to walk.They want to resign Reyes but if he insists on breaking the bank then I would have no problem if he walks.He’s been on the DL as much as he’s been on the field the last 3 years.We have sucked with both Reyes and Wright,we can suck without them.Having said that I hope they resign Reyes and I hope Wright is weraing a new uniform next year. As far as Moneyball winning sh!t,I’m sure you’d be happy with 4 straight postseason appearances and 5 in 7 seasons.We didn’t accomplish that with a top 3 payroll.I’ll take 91-71 then 102-60 then 103-59 then 96-66 then 91-71 an off year at 88-74 then 93-69.The idea is to make the postseason,anything can happen in the playoffs but you gotta get there 1st and they got there.Now all the big market teams are using sabermetrics as a tool so Oakland no longer has that advantage.I guess if we don’t throw stupid dollars at a weak free agent crop the anti Alderson bunch will think it’s because of moneyball rather than not throwing stupid dollars on the wrong people.
A frickin Men.
i’d be happi-er with a championship, hell, even a league championship, which the moneyballers have failed to do….
Again the Redsox,Yanks,Cards,Phils have all been using avanced stats/sabermetrics and have all won in the last 5 years.Just about every team in baseball has adopted them,even Omar hired a sabermetrician.You’d be happier with a championship but you van’t play for one unless you make the final 8.
Can’t*
“Again the Redsox,Yanks,Cards,Phils have all been using avanced stats/sabermetrics and have all won in the last 5 years”
The Phillies? Really?
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/2018/do-phillies-ignore-sabermetrics
Charley Kerfeld special assistant to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr:
“I think defensive statistics are the most unpredictable stats there are, and since I’ve been here, we don’t have an in-house stats guy and I kind of feel we never will. We’re not a statistics-driven organization by any means. I’m not against statistics. Everybody has their own way of doing things. But the Phillies believe in what our scouts see and what our eyes tell us and what our people tell us.”
sure doesn’t sound like it.
Yeah, down with numbers! Screw exploiting free agent market inefficiencies to build franchises like the Boston Red Sox did and everyone now aspires to do! Fire Sandy Alderson because he’s the godfather of the so-called Moneyball movement and might try to implement logic and reason into how the Mets allocate their payroll!
I don’t mean to troll. I really don’t. But this post was too much.
There’s a few ignorant people on this site with no comprehension of baseball, but none of them write for it. Satish is definitely not one of them.
It seems there are 2 people who feel I have no comprehension of baseball. I’d love to know who the other one is, besides Matt.
Thank you for sticking up for me, though.
when a guy says :”I feel the Mets HAVE to sign Chris Young back” you know how much baseball he knows..
That’s a great idea. A really good pitcher for little to no cost? That’s a great thought, Alex.
for that matter, why not go after kelvim escobar as well, and ben sheets and brandon webb… that is a stupid as-s comment to make, chris young was brought here because he was the cheapest out of all the free agents along with capuano. think we could’ve had jeff francis or harang for .5 million more.. that was as bad as kelvim escobar, and i remmeber minaya getting killed here for that signing, yet this one was similar and noone said anything about it right? double standard at its best, and to top it all, YOU claim to know baseball and want chris young back!!?? that is just plain STUPID!!!!
Shoot, if Webb and Sheets want to see if arm is still functional for a minor league deal, bring it on. I’ll sign your grandmother to a minor league deal. I was in favor of the Escobar signing.
Capuano and Young > Francis and Harang. I said at the beginning of the year Capuano would pitch better than Harang and I was right. And Jeff Francis is an absolute joke. You’re embarrassing yourself in front of our guest from AA.
Harang: 13-7 3.82
Capuano: 11-12 4.55
how is capuano having a better season???!!?? are you high??
also, capuano and young had 12 wins COMBINED!!!!!
Francis has lost 16 games, but with a respectable 4.82 for a 5th starter and remember, he’s playing with arguably the worst team in the majors.. the royals!!!!
Because win total and ERA are team-dependent. Look at HOW he pitched, not what his teammates helped him achieve. Capuano is clearly pitching better.
Capuano’s FIP/xFIP: 4.01/3.73
Harang’s FIP/xFIP: 4.28/4.23
Capuano’s K/9 and BB/9: 7.95/2.60
Harang’s K/9 and BB/9: 6.58/3.21
Capuano’s WHIP: 1.36
Harang’s WHIP: 1.41
Also Capuano hasn’t missed a start all year and Harang’s been on the DL. Also, the Red Sox thought Capuano was good enough to try and trade for. Didn’t see any articles about one of the best organizations in baseball knocking on San Diego’s door. Also, Cap’s doing it for about 25% of the money Harang is. Also funny how Francis is having a “respectable” season, but Capuano is garbage. Also funny how you continue to perpetrate a baseball fan.
I agree Harang has pitched much better than Cappy.He did look miserable with Cincy the last few years so this year came as a bit of a surprise.Francis however is horrible.He gets lit up like a Christmas tree.Excuse makers have always said if you take him out of Coors Field he would dominate which is pretty funny since he pitched better at Coors than he did on the road.
Why must everything be your way or the highway with you geeks?
Why do you distort things and say that because some of us dont like sabermetrics it means we dont like stats?
WE LOVE STATS!
What we dont love is all this insane crazy stuff like vorp, uzr, fip, xoba, wpa and crap you could never use at a ballpark!
Just because you dont like traditional stats do you hear us saying it must mean you hate leather, lumber and grass?
You geeks are only capable of seeing black and white, that’s your major malfunction. There is no in between, you either love saber or you hate stats, guess what what, YOURE WRONG!
“Why must everything be your way or the highway with you geeks?”
Really? That’s how you want to start?
“Why do you distort things and say that because some of us dont like sabermetrics it means we dont like stats?
WE LOVE STATS! ”
Ya, that’s why I laugh at the hypocrisy of calling one group of people “stat geeks” and then railing off the stats you prefer.
The issue is you and others are preaching inaccurate stats.
“What we dont love is all this insane crazy stuff like vorp, uzr, fip, xoba, wpa and crap you could never use at a ballpark!”
What? Where do you think the stats come from? A vending machine?
“Just because you dont like traditional stats do you hear us saying it must mean you hate leather, lumber and grass?”
Actually, yes. Look at the comments around here, including your own. The whole “you don’t really love baseball” thing or “you don’t watch the games” thing gets thrown at people who reference advanced stats all the time.
“You geeks are only capable of seeing black and white, that’s your major malfunction. There is no in between, you either love saber or you hate stats, guess what what, YOURE WRONG!”
So much irony. Or is it hypocrisy at this point?
I don’t think that is what Satish is saying at all. I’m an advocate of sabermetrics and I keep getting annoyed at people on both sides of the argument who are trying to shoe horn the Mets current situation to fit the book.
That’s not to say Satish doesn’t have a few inaccuracies in there, but I think you’re claiming he said something he didn’t in order to fan flames of argument that really doesn’t need to exist.
I think you’re trying to twist my words into something I didn’t say. But thank you for the comment.
Rather than get into a argument about quotes taken out of context or devolving into a stat geek v. scout purist debate, I’d like to preface this by asking you a simple question, Satish:
What is Moneyball?
Moneyball is a book.
What I termed as the “Moneyball approach” is, in my opinion, using sabermetric and other advanced analysis to value players rather than traditional statistics, and trying to sign players that give “more bang for your buck”, because you were forced into that position.
Hear me out. I say the Mets will never be the Moneyball Mets because we (should) never be forced into a position where our revenue situation is as bad as it was in Oakland years back. They had to sign cheaper players.
It is very possible and understandable that the Mets may now adopt a system based on sabermetrics for analysis and make smarter signings in free agency. However, this does not make them a Moneyball team.
The original point of the post though, was to point out Lennon’s inaccuracy.
‘So let’s say the Mets finish with 78 wins. Don’t you think that half a season from Santana, Carlos Beltran staying in the lineup, and a non-injured Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy could have gotten this team to near 90 wins and at least kept us in the wild card chase?’
I’d respond that you can look at WAR or projected WAR (injury shortened seasons for some) to calculate if this team could have won 90 but hey….you don’t like sabermetrics.
The problem with the ‘traditionalists’ vs the ‘sabermetrics’ crowd and/or debate is that it’s not all one or the other. If you don’t think that every single FO isn’t using some form of sabermetrics to back up and/or compare to scouting reports, you’re not paying attention. You have to employ both. Simply for the reason that you don’t want to pay for past performance. You want to pay for that COUPLED with some type of projected future performance.
All I want is this FO to field the best team they can come up with w/o throwing good money after bad. Is that too much to ask for? I guess we’ll see going forward.
Well stated srt.Almost all teams are using sabermetrics now so I don’t see what the problem is.I’m an advocate of both,the old school and advanced stats.I am however against using any advanced stats that suggest a player like Wright who fails miserably in game on the line situations is actually good in high leverage situations.There are some people who can’t accept the fact that Wright is awful in pressure situations and it’s pretty ridiculous to suggest otherwise.
You can’t just dismiss a stat if it contradicts your preconceived notions. The whole point to gathering objective data and stats is because human beings are too biased and rely too much on our memory which is NOT a recording device. You really don’t “know” half of what you “know”.
You can’t have an outcome and then seek data that supports it.
All stats can be misleading,including advanced stats.If Wright hit in pressure situations the same way as he has hit in the past in non pressure situations he wouldn’t take the abuse that he takes.A player with his talent and ability should not be so futile when he comes up with the game on the line.
“All stats can be misleading,including advanced stats.”
Numbers don’t lie. People do.
“If Wright hit in pressure situations the same way as he has hit in the past in non pressure situations he wouldn’t take the abuse that he takes.”
So, if a lot of people believe it, it must be true? Really? The fact is, the numbers bear out that Wright does hit well in high leverage spots.
You are blind or ignorant if you think Wright hits in the Clutch.High leverage isn’t always with the game on the line.Situations like yesterday’s 9th inning at bat are the norm not the exception with Wright.Do you really need to repeat everything I write.Yes you’re right about people lying.Especially to themselves when it comes to Wright.It’s time you look in the mirror.
“You are blind or ignorant if you think Wright hits in the Clutch”
Or, I can simply refer to actual documented evidence.
“High leverage isn’t always with the game on the line”
Yes, the leverage goes up the more the game is on the line.
“Situations like yesterday’s 9th inning at bat are the norm not the exception with Wright.”
Do you have anything but anecdotes to support that?
“Do you really need to repeat everything I write.”
It makes it easier to follow your point.
“.Yes you’re right about people lying.Especially to themselves when it comes to Wright.”
Hey! We agree!
“It’s time you look in the mirror.”
…or not
You are both blind and ignorant.Wright sucks in the clutch.
Great article. Lennon used the term “Moneyball” entirely incorrectly.
There is something I want to quibble with, though. Your statement “That’s my problem with sabermetrics. It does not nor can it ever account for the human element.” It’s not wrong, but what you did is back into a correct statement instead of making a correct statement. No, sabermetrics cannot account for the human element. But that’s because they are statistics. No statistic can account for human elements, whether it be sabermetric stats or traditional ones. Looking at someone’s trending xFIP or wOBA can’t tell anything about the human element, and neither can win total or batting average. That’s the nature of statistics in general.
I wish I knew where this sentiment that people who use sabermetric stats don’t care about the human element came from. The first thing Alderson did in his new role as GM is increase the scouting budget and hire more scouts!
Scouting will always be the lifeblood of a baseball team. Amateur scouting, advanced scouting, scouting other organizations both at the Major and minor league level and even scouting your own organization with a fresh set of eyes.
I read this past off season where the Mets only had one scout for the entire NL last year. That would have had to be the advanced scout who’s mission would be to prepare a report on the next opponent but how about scouting of other organizations for players we might like to trade for? BEFORE the call comes in? Or perhaps we find a guy we really like and recognize a weakness on a team at a position we have a log jam at?
You cannot take advantage of opportunities when you have no idea that they exist.
How many eyes did we have on Joaquin Arias before we traded Francouer for him? That trade wasn’t a salary dump. MLB was still in control of the Rangers. Their were numerous organizations that filed a protest when they picked up Cliff Lee’s salary. They weren’t allowed to go out and add any more salary.
I understand Francouer would have had to be non tendered. You cannot offer arb to a part time OFer with a 5 M dollar base. Fair enough but the Rangers have 20 prospects who are top 20 (out of about 300) in the minor league in which they play. Certainly we could have nabbed someone with real upside even if it wasn’t one of those top 20. A grade B pitcher or catcher in A- for instance, not a back up middle infielder when we already had Tejada, Havens and Valdespin close and Castillo still here. Same can be said of the Wagner deal. Chris Carter didn’t have a position, how could he help us? Why not gamble on true upside in rookie ball instead of settling for window dressing.
If we only had one scout for the entire NL how many could we have had in the AL?
Good decisions are first and foremost made by your scouting dept. If that’s weak your organization is going to be weak. If you also reject other forms of input such as projection analysis going FORWARD, physicals, age, stats you have no chance unless it’s a pure salary dump. Period.
For over two decades we’ve been winging it. More concerned with the splashy January big name back page to excite the Fan Base instead of the thoughtful long range multi dimensional analysis of what will serve us the best on the field both this year and on into the future.
More input rather than less input is what’s required and if that means more in the way of projections going forward, medical records, physicals, stats or anything else you have to do it but it all starts and ends with the scout. Without them nothing else matters.
I agree with you about the Wagner for Carter trade.That was just flat out dumb.The two draft picks would’ve been much more valuable than a slob like Chris Carter.Francouer though was pretty miserable for us last year after the 20 inning game in St.Louis,I doubt even Branch Rickey could’ve gotten more in return for Francouer.The Rangers would’ve went elsewhere had the price been higher.Jon Daniels is a pretty smart GM.
Hey t agee, Angel Pagan was intentionally walked to face David Wright last night in the 9th inning…AGAIN it happens..and with the game on the line again. Do you have an excuse for that this time? Like you did the other day when Lucas Duda was walked to face Wright? You gonna give me that lefty/right garbage again?
Donal does.He hits well in high leverage situations.Hilarious!
Hey, Joe referenced the leverage scale as well.
Thanks for the comment.
I never said that you don’t care about the human element – because I know most of the SABR people I discuss baseball with are obviously aware of it. What I do feel is that there’s sometimes a lack of accounting for growth and maturity when looking at a player objectively.
Nevermind what that one dude MatthewA said, your post is spot on!
David Lennon is a complete idiot for saying the Mets OBP is proof that the Moneyball Mets are alive and well.
You did a good job in identifying why the team is walking more and showing a better approach at the plate and it’s all part of the learning curve that ballplayers go through.
Lennon, a saber sympathizer, is like so many of the other saber sites that just love to keep throwing wood on the fire when it’s not even necessary. They enjoy creating the divide that separates both camps.
Sites like Amazin Avenue, Fangraphs, Ted Quarters, etc. are the problem why there is so much vitriol with Mets fans. They make posts like this one:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/9/21/2440155/transcript-of-omar-minayas-interview-on-sny
And then complain about the chasm they themselves create.
It’s too bad there wasn’t one saber-site that was decent and responsible enough to educate fans, rather than mock and use snark against traditional fans and then complain when they are called trolls, geeks and idiots.
I notice how all the trouble makers are on the other side of the argument from you. And some how, a joke about Minaya’s awful job dealing with the media is a great offense.
“These current Mets players, ALMOST ALL OF WHICH ARE MINAYA’S AND NOT ALDERSON’S, are simply progressing, learning and becoming better hitters.”
This right here says it all about “Moneyball”….
How? What chapter of Moneyball does this contradict?
I mean, you did read it, right?
No, it really doesn’t say anything at all.
For every one of ‘MINAYA’S’ guys that are learning and/or prospering, there are just as many who aren’t, didn’t or flamed out. Just take a look at past drafts, trades, signings and results going forward.
It doesn’t say anything about the current regime either. Alderson has gone through one draft – ONE. His legacy won’t be known for years to come yet.
A lot of the guys Minaya brought in here did flame out. Over 60 guys in six years that he brought in here never played a major league game again after they left the Mets. That really says a lot more about the previous GM’s than it does about Minaya because THEIR actually the reason Minaya had to pick up so many retreads. Guys who are all around good players aren’t suddenly made available. Lots of the guys he brought in were grip it and rip it types. That virus usually infects the whole line up especially when meaningful games are no longer being played and even more so when an atmosphere of tolerance is in effect.
While Minaya may not have always been able to acquire the guys he may have really wanted, he also did acquire plenty of guys who didn’t help the situation and I have no idea who was behind the firing of Rick Downs but it was either Minaya or J. Wilpon. I’m inclined to believe it was Wilpon as a warning shot to Randolph but whoever thought Hojo was uniquely qualified to be a hitting instructor obviously never watched his approach to breaking pitches. I think he was hired primarily to be an in house spy and this is so typical of the way the Wilpon has run the organization since they first assumed a full 50% partnership. If they ever just concentrated on the one and only thing that matters, winning baseball games, everything else that they desire would just fall in line.
How many flamed out this year? Stop living in the past dude!
We are all living in the present here!
alderson try to moneyball the mets by adding garbage like hu and emaus, also thayer and boyer, boof bonser. also signing “low risk high reward” pitchers like capuano and young, only to have all of that back fire in his FACE as both pitchers combined for 12 wins, not to mention the TERRIBLE contract given to carrasco and the trade that derailed the good season we were having of krod and beltran for a single A pitcher and a midget
How much money and draft picks did all that cost? Off the top of my head, all that cost less than half of one season of Castillo’s contract and no draft picks, unlike the two that could have been had for letting a 32-year-old declining middle infielder who needed surgery on both knees walk.
Meanwhile, you go on and on about Harang and Francis. They were going to improve the Mets? If you can tell me the Mets could have had Cliff Lee for $10 million and Alderson decided not to, he’d rather spend $2 million on Cap and Young, then you’d have a beef. But until you can make that claim, you’re just flapping your gums.
so let me ask you something, do you think that at any point, alderson improved this team with any of his acquisition??
This team is better than last year’s team without a doubt and there’s a lot of reasons for that. One is the new hitting coach and the offensive approach of the team, which Sandy brought with him. Another is the good crop of teachable young guys that Omar left here. Another is that the 5th most starts made by a starting pitcher last year were made by John Maine. Capuano eats John Maine for breakfast. Another is the fight and attitude of the team, which was a combination of Omar and Sandy. Omar brought Collins in but used him in the minors and left Jolly Jerry at the helm for some reason and Sandy saw that Collins can be a good manager. Another is the roster moves made by Sandy in general. Cutting Castillo and Perez, letting Tejada stew in the minors till he was good and ready. Another is the albatross signings Sandy could have but DIDN’T make so that when we look to the future there’s no “but we’re stuck with Player X.”
There’s a lot of reasons why this team is much better than last year’s team.
Having young hungry players in your clubhouse without set roles adds a lot of competitiveness to your team as does eliminating guys on scholarship. Tell you the truth their wasn’t really all that much Manuel could do with under performing players. 2009 he had to scramble just to fill out a line up card and the young hungry player dying to get some playing time was already on the field, every day. Notably Pagan and Murphy. Those guys overall had pretty good years. Castillo had his last gasp year and he always played hard anyway.
2010 there just weren’t any options to go with. You couldn’t bench anyone for repeatedly missing the cutoff, not running hard, making stupid mistakes or hitting the way the hitting coach was instructing you.
Young and hungry ball players keep your vets on their toes because they don’t know their role. They won’t accept a part time gig like a Cattolanatto or Cora or Marlin Anderson will. They’ll play anywhere at anytime with no complaints and always will play their hardest. You really can’t bench a Jason Bay and put in Chris Carter very often can you?
That’s the biggest reason by far between the 2010 and 2011 teams AB’s. The fact that Collins isn’t tolerant just tilted the clubhouse even more in this direction.
One HUGE move that Collins made early in the season in Atlanta was in by passing the bullpen and bringing in Capuano and Dickey (I think Dickey was the 2nd guy) to nail down a victory. Things like that show a lack of tolerance and with a younger team, not with a preponderance of multi year contracts, their more accepting of that attitude than a veteran team might be.
The same tactics employed by Collins in 2008 or 2010 might have imploded the clubhouse and with the Wilpon constantly undermining the chain of command that must exist in a successful organization, might have once again made us the laughing stock of MLB.
Collins also showed the proper respect to Carlos Beltran by letting him make the decision about where to play and Carlos returned the favor by making the right call. That situation was handled superbly by both of them. Real top notch professional job on the part of each.
Speaking to each player, every day, in the clubhouse and not hiding in the office made a difference too.
Collins was also not a Wilpon weasel by trying in subvert the 55 game clause in K-Rod’s contract and that earned him a lot of respect.
Together Collins attitude and a preponderance of young hungry players with nothing guaranteed was what made this team teachable, leadable and able to battle shorthanded but it wouldn’t have been possible without the young player who had nothing guaranteed. That was the most important change made. Without that nothing would have changed.
This team is better than last year’s team”
i stop after reading that right there…
Too bad. You missed a good post.
Hooked On Phonics will work for you
I’d have to define that as narrow minded, Alex.
He makes some very good points. And just about all of them are facts, coupled with some opinions.
Which players do you think Alderson could’ve signed with the 5 million dollars he had to work with.he payroll was at 140 million withou adding any significant players.Who were they going to sign? Crawford/ Werth? Lee? I’d like to know who you expected him to bring in.
All three of them.
“alderson try to moneyball the mets by adding garbage like hu and emaus, also thayer and boyer, boof bonser. ”
Moneyball is a verb now? And where are Hu, Emaus, Thayer and Bonser? Are they on 4 year deals making $8 million per?
What did we really lose with giving them a chance? Besides, Boyer was just holding down a spot until Izzy got healthy.
“also signing “low risk high reward” pitchers like capuano and young, only to have all of that back fire in his FACE as both pitchers combined for 12 wins,”
counting a pitcher’s wins is a lousy way to gauge their ability. Dickey is proof of that.
“not to mention the TERRIBLE contract given to carrasco”
A 2 year deal at $1 million per when they were trying to rebuild the bullpen from scratch is not a terrible contract.
“the trade that derailed the good season we were having of krod and beltran for a single A pitcher and a midget”
Rodriguez is middle of the road as a hype pitcher and Beltran was leaving, so we had to get something for him. And that “midget” has been OK so far. The “good season” was barely .500.
actually moneyball didn’t really work for the A’s. They did good because they had three very good pitchers, not because of OBP, or “market inefficiencies”. And they are bad now because they don’t have those pitchers anymore – simple as that, it’s got nothing to do with “moneyball”, sabermetrics, or OBP.
Michael Kay had said on a Yankee broadcast the other day that Eric Chavez (who played with the A’s during that time) was asked if he’s going to see the Moneyball movie and Chavez was adamantly replied “NO”.
Kay claims Chavez responded with the reason the A’s had some success then was because they had good players not anything else.
Ya, the Yankee shill (I mean Kay, not the ones infecting this site) takes a chance to go after a team that defied checkbook baseball. Hold on, let me find my surprised face.
So the A’s had good players. Beane drafted/signed those good players. Beane was a Moneyball guy… Hmmm… I see dots here. I wonder if I should connect them…
yep, the Billy Beane way has been a success. What? 17 years or so by now so the moneyball approach has had time to infiltrate the entire organization from the lowest level to the parent club. I’ve lost count of all those championships.
or wait? Have they gotten worse? I can think of many other teams during that time that should have books written about them or books written about their GMs. But why do that? Let’s follow the model of sustaining no success for a long period of time.
The Billy Bean way of developing players is a success. Haren, Zito (at the time of the trade), Hardin, Mulder, Giambi, Tejada, etc. etc. etc. Look, you can’t fault Beane for working for an organization that can’t retain it’s players.
Sounds like excuses for not being able to win to me.
Okay, don’t fault Minaya for his stars getting injured in 2009 and 2010 and I won’t fault Beane for failing to convince his boss to hold onto good players
THAT’S an excuse for not being able to win? Why don’t you roll out all your 87 excuses about heart-wrenching, soul-crushing losses in the past five years. And then the rest of them, all the way back to 1973.
Yeah what’s your excuse for Delgado’s bad first half in 2008? Broken wrist on the last day of the 2007 season? OK. What’s your excuse for his bad first half in 2007?
How about his bad August’s in both 2007 and 2008?
What’s your excuse for those? Or are four mediocre or bad months months by our second best hitter in seasons in which we missed the playoffs by one game “meaningless?”
We’d all like to hear what your excuses are for those.
Yep, that explains why the A’s have NEVER won a World Series in 17 or 18 years under Beane. And continue to get worst.
HAREN WAS A TRADE WITH ST LOUIS FOR MARK MULDER… get your facts straight…
So now you are sucking up to Michael Kay and the Yankees…….
vinny, great point, also, they had giambi and tejada JUICED UP and having MVP seasons while the GM looked the other way, just as he did back in the 8′s money ball my as-s…
Everyone was basically juiced up then. What’s your point?
I have no idea why Alderson continually gets cooked on the steroid issue. I get that Canseco and McGwire were virtual poster boys for the era and I don’t doubt for a second it helped them but steroids were all over MLB. Everyone in baseball knew. They had to. Think a guy like don Zimmer didn’t see things he had never seen before in 50 years?
Why do the Alderson haters always bring up steroids as if only one person in baseball benefited from their association with players linked to PED’s?
One could say the same thing about anyone in baseball.
The Mets had a guy selling steroids right in the clubhouse. The NYY and Red Sox have had many guys linked to usage of PED’s. It could even be argued that the NYY KNEW about Clemmons and helped him subvert testing by signing him for the second half of baseball seasons.
Omar Minaya’s three top international free agents, who arguably launched his career, have been linked to PED’s. Ivan, Igor and Sosa.
It’s always just one guy. One of two guys you rail against every single day here.
SF, Bonds. LA La Duca,
Because it was key in winning the only world series team he has on his resume…
It’s not his fault there were a lot of juicers that neither he or anyone else could identify. There was no testing at the time.
But those who think Sandy has been nothing but a success forget thats his only great team and that team was mostly a product of a good Roids distributor not any greatness in team selection or statistical analysis!
You don’t have to dig too deep into statisitical analysis to know a guy with as many HRs as mcgwire and canseco hit were worth having!
Two players were on steroids from that 89 team and McGuire didn’t even look like he was yet if indeed he was in 89.He didn’t look jacked up until about 92 or 93.Was Eckersly,Storm Davis,Walt Weiss,Gene Nelson,Rick Honeycutt,Rickey Henderson,Dave Henderson and the rest of those guys all jacked up too.The only one who you could tell just by looking at him was Canseco.Big Mac if he was didn’t look like he was until a few years later.Name how many teams have won titles since that haven’t had at least one juicer on it.It’s stupid to be anti Alderson for those reasons.
You mean TWO who ADMITTED IT…how many were and didn’t admit or get caught?
I’m not claiming as a good reason to be anti alderson
But it is also stupid to be PRO-ALderson based on ONE season that was a product of Juicers too!
When he ACHIEVES I will prop him…not before and not UNTIL!
And in three years he had better show marked improvment in this team no matter WHAT system he uses!
But then if it winds up he does improve without using moneyball I hope the religionist will finally shut the hell up because I’m tired about hearing about a system that has NEVER succeeded in winning anything and is only popular because it makes Sabers seem more important than any other statistical analysis you can think of!
When the truth is Statsitical Analysis has been going on for a hundred years already. Sabers isn’t really new it’s just MORE of the same old calculations that have always been done albeit now they are done on computers and not paper!
And some of them are created to promote a THERORY not prove a reality!
You know Conseco only played 65 games in 1989 due to injury, right?
Can pitching alone win the game or is a score required?
IGNORE ON!
thats in reply to your other blathering…
As far as Canseco is concerned thats 65 games they had a chance to win…
And had mcGwire the rest of the time!
Lowest runs per game against in the AL.
They won that WS on pitching
The A’s gave up more runs per game during that time with their three big pitchers than they did during the last five terrible seasons.
That’s because runs scored is down from when it was then.
Look I have no problem with moneyball it has it’s uses just none of them involve building a winning team unless it’s done to save money to BUY the guy who is going to get you that winning season. If thats not the purpose then all it does is make an impressive looking balance sheet to the boss and hopes that enough wins can be achieved to keep you from getting fired because the fact you didn’t win gets overridden by your lowball budget!
Sabers in and of themselves are NOT Evil. My problem with them is HOW people use them and how SOME of them are calculated where BIAS towards some aspect wiggles into the equation because the author is more interested in trying to prove PHILOSOPHY and not ACTUAL REALITY!
Neither has played a role in ANY of our success this year as Satish corretly pointed out.
None of the players who achieved this year were recently acquired or brought in by the GM. All of the standouts and achievers were already here! Reyes, Murphy, Duda, Beltran (who I believe still leads the team in RBI), Turner, and Tejada were the ones who ADDED goodness to the season.
The reasons it did not show up in the standings is due to the fact that Santana and Davis were not there and guys like Pelfrey and Niese who had reasonable seasons last year digressed a bit.
If we really want to give credit to someone for what we liked this year you HAVE to give it to Collins!
he is the one who made what we had play better! He is the one who got them to come back from a 5 run deficit late in games by not allowing them to quit even when it doesn’t really count towards a playoff!
If you want to give the GM credit for anything give him credit for THAT and that alone!
The Omar fans can say Omar hired Collins in the first place but Sandy made him the Manager!
The changes we have seen this year that are creditable are not due to a new philosophy of acquisition or MONEYBALL. They are due to a philisophical change of approach BY THE MANAGER AND PLAYERS who were already here!
None of the acquisitions made last off season were the reason we appear to be playing better baseball in fact a few of them were actually part of the PROBLEM since the focus was Pitching and Pitching is what has offset any gains made by the regulars!
I don’t pretend to know what Sandy will do next but if he does manage to resign Reyes then NO ONE CAN CLAIM moneyball is being used here with the Mets!
Some religionists will attempt to paint it is such but they will be talking out of their A$$!
Secretly they will be disappointed because there will be no MONEYBALL METS!
There will be cheap signings (there ALWAYS are even the Yankees make cheap signings!) but that will not be because of some moneyball philosophy or system being put in place. And there may not be MANY big signings either but that doesn’t mean there never will be just that maybe the big signings that can be made are not worth it for that particular market! (ie: an expensive Jason Werth or an overvalued Roy Oswalt!)
Bottomline is we did better with what we had in most cases (not related to pitching), treaded water (Moneyball) with what we recently got and need to improve the pitching enough so that the improved offense doesn’t have to score 5 runs in the 9th to win ballgames! Do that and we will be successful enough to start giving the GM credit!
And draw enough so that we don’t HAVE to save money to go and buy the guys who can put us into the WS!
If you anti Alderson guys were paying attention to the press conference when he was introduced you would remember he said he wouldn’t have taken the job if he would’ve been under payroll constraints and the resources the Mets have is what intigued him.The difference is he will spend more wisely.Why you guys think that we are the Moneyball Mets is only your own assumption.
And if the PRO Alderson guys had been listening they wouldn’t be so busy trying to tie any improvment on MONEYBALL either!
BOTH EXTREMES ARE WRONG!
They are not stating anything true just trying to pull people to one extreme or the other!
Sandy will not be using moneyball but he won’t be playing Yankee Wallet ball either!
At least not until he has to because the folks in this city will run you out of town if you don’t convince them your here to win!
Shouldn’t all Mets fans be pro-Alderson guys?
“And if the PRO Alderson guys had been listening they wouldn’t be so busy trying to tie any improvment on MONEYBALL either!”
you mean the guys repeatedly saying that the situation depicted in Moneyball was different from the Mets current situation?
Were all fans pro Omar when he was here?
And yes you guys should listen instead of trying to attibute what happened this year TO moneyball you know the situation that doesn’t exist here?
IGNORE ON!
Can I speak for all? No. But I can say I did indeed root for Minaya to succeed while he was here. His success was directly linked to the Mets success.
The plain fact is he didn’t.
“And yes you guys should listen instead of trying to attibute what happened this year TO moneyball you know the situation that doesn’t exist here?”
You really need to stop lying about what other people say.
And neither has Alderson!
We won’t know for a little while. You think fixing the problems this team has happens in a few weeks?
Well he has one more year to accomplish what Omar did when he first got here!
Our system was in MUCH worse shape when Omar took over than when Sandy…
There was no Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Rueben Tejada, Justin Turner, Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, and all those other kids you don’t think much of when you slam Omar for his work!
No, that’s crap. Alderson has to show tangible progress, but 2006 was a fluke and their respective situations are different.
Or are you about to tell me Minaya was a better GM than Frank Cashen?
Three straight years playing for the division is a FLUKE yet what Cashen did in winning only one WS and then collapsing was a resounding success?
You know I don’t really need to comment on that because I think that speaks VOLUMES about the source that said it!
IGNORE ON!
So, Minaya was a better GM than Cashen?
Is that what you are saying?
The only guy who tried to tie the improvement to Moneyball was Lennon. If you haven’t noticed, the pro-saber readers here have been all over him for that.
Mostly because Sandy hasn’t REALLY done moneyball!
And in the few sample cases where he did the guys he got failed even by Moneyball and Sabermetric standards! So they in NO WAY want to tie what he has done so far with Moneyball which to some religionists is a can’t fail sure fire way to the playoffs! LOL
And I don’t put Pro-Sabers into the same category as the Moneyballers myself. Sabers is about Stats, Moneyball is about CHEAP! Cheap doesn’t always translate to GOOD STATS, neither does walletball or Sabers.
Truth here is Sandy didn’t really use Moneyball and really had nothing to do with Aquiring the players that made the teams numbers FIT with the aquisition goals OF moneyball!
Sandy is going to MAKE an offer for Reyes and the Moneyballers are going to cry about how much he spent especially if Reyes doesn’t repeat in the fight for the batting title next year!
Especially if we fail to compete…
And if we DO many will try again to say it’s all about the moneyball regardless of if it was actually used because it’s about the philosophy not ACTUAL EVENTS!
Those are the folks I rail against X, Not the pro Sabers!
Stats are good provided you know their limitations and you do not allow bias to creep into the calculation!
As Clint always said, Man has to know his limitations!
I agree with that! That’s pretty much what I said.
Great Post! I agree with you on almost everything. I think you left out one major thing. That is the job that Terry Collins has done this season by keeping his players motivated and focused. Other than that, great post!