There is no way he gets 500 AB’s next year if he’s playing the way he has and consequently there is absolutely no way he gets 600 in 2013 and there isn’t a thing the union can do about it.

There are quite a few guys that could possibly be long term solutions that need to be protected from rule 5 poachers this year including Lagares, Havens, Carson, Cruz, De La Torre, even Holt and Pena although their probably safe and several others on the 40 some of whom will remain (Valdespin, Kirk, Mejia others won’t and some you’ll just have to take your chances on like Stinson, Satin, Turner, Pridie, all the relief pitchers, Fern, Lutz, Batista, Schwinden, Armando Rodriguez, Misch, Nickeas, ect and while many spots will open up we are really screwed this year because even guys who could have been close and been on BOTH the 25 and 40 like Mejia, Kirk and Fern who are on the DL and not currently counting against the 40 man roster have to be placed on it come Nov. 1st and are most likely not going to help on the 25 next year.

I’m not sure how it works in regard to injury and rule 5 picks but I know the issue has been addressed to some extent because of teams selecting and then DLing a rule 5, getting him through the season and then sticking him in the minors for a year or two but can you really afford to take a chance with Mejia. Clearly he won’t be able to pitch come April but if taken off the 40, selected by someone he is clearly DLable because of his rehab so he must be protected.

I think there is a way to trade guys you can’t protect and then be able to protect the guy you get in return but I’m not positive about that and I could be dead wrong but I believe that was behind the Health Bell/Royce Ring for Ben Johnson deal as well as the Lindstrom/Owens for Jason Vargas trade.

Other things that can be done are dropping guys like Fern, although I’d love to give him one more year and I believe he has an option left but would definitely be eligable to be taken and probably would be. Carrasco has to be jettisoned to save a roster spot. Beato will be taken off cause he hasn’t been in OUR system for 4 years. Lot’s of difficult decisions have to be made and they really have to be made at the expense of the Major League club or we’ll never be able to get this thing under control.

This was clearly the reason why the new FO was only handing out one year deals this past off season. (except Carrasco, obviously a big mistake there) Next year it’s even going to be worse with Flores, Familia, Puello, Marte, Gorski and whoever else establishes themselves as a top prospect in 2012 having to be added and only two of those guys even remotely being able to make the 25.

This is really the reason we couldn’t offer a two year deal to Qualls or Harang. It would have almost certainly cost us a Havens or a Holt or a Fern, Shwinden or someone else unless we just gave them a two year deal and cut ‘em loose after one.

Certain positions are easier for Major League rosters to absorb a not yet ready player. Teams that carry a 3rd catcher (Nickeas) could grab one. A backup middle infielder with a good glove and not yet ready bat (Conception) or a LHP to use as a 2nd LOOGY (Carson) a 5th OF type with a good glove who can steal a base (Zapata) so all that has to be figured in too plus we might want to keep a spot open so we could snag a guy as well.

Eziquel Carrera who was one of our 2005 IFA’s and went to Cleveland in the Putz deal was named the International Leagues best defensive OFer and best baserunner could be a great fit for Citi Field and back up CF and spell Duda in the late innings of a close game and even swipe a base for you as a pinch runner and at 24 just possibly could be coming into his own and be a real good hungry athlete comprising one part of a well conceived 5 man OF.

Each useless player on the 25 really kills you as far as protecting a slower developing prospect so Bay is out of here, one way or another after 2012 unless he were to turn it around in a big way and even that would only be to satisfy the Union because Bay has no chance to be part of a long term solution here and even a guy completely on the bubble like Holt or Fern does. This is one of the reasons why free agents can just kill you, not only in poor play, wasted payroll and lost early round picks but unless you cut bait they can cost you a prospect as well.

Also does not have to be someone currently on hand. They could end up picking up another LH hitting OF to use in that role, until one of the kids is ready.

I agree thta Kirk is not likely to be ready out of ST, but who knows, maybe he heals well and has a huge spring.

I don’t mind breaking in a guy like that in a platoon at first, especially if it means no Bay.

Duda, he is going to play everyday, even against LH pitching.

Could anyone really claim to be surprised if we signed Scott Kazmir to an incentive laden deal this off season? Nelson Cruz two years from now? Personally I’m surprised we didn’t bring in Melvin Mora a year or two ago. For eons now the Mets have religously avoided players in their prime. Preferring to ship them out before or import them after and while the thinking at the time could probably be justified in some of those trades the fact is that even an average player, making a smaller salary will play as well or better than a former All Star who is in his decline and that the difference in salary will allow a 2nd player to be added in say a salary dump type deal for a guy going free agent in a year, year and a half or two years down the road. That means an upgrade at TWO positions instead of a decline at one.

Those prospects then traded away for that salary dump player can then be recouped by letting him go and picking up two 1st round picks. That’s a very sustainable model that keeps your farm strong, provides you with depth, renews your roster, allows for future trades and has the best chance of getting your own superstar down the road.

1B and LF are really the ultimate positions that should be filled from within due to the easier nature of playing those positions but really, with only eight everyday spots to fill a team should really be able to fill all of them, plus the bench, with prospects who have the athletic ability to play great defense and run the bases and the stamina to do it day in and day out in pennant races in August and September. That means 23-31 year old’s bucking for the big contract, not trying to live up to it while their staring decline right in the face.

Go Free Agent on the big time ace starting pitcher who’s less reliant on the types of skills that go first like agility and quickness and who’s already mastered his craft not to mention avoided being an early round bust.

Put an elite defensive team out on the field featuring high energy young guys with the same on the bench just dying for a chance to get on the field and the top pitchers will be dying to come here. Even an average pitcher will pitch well in front of those kids who have the physical ability to be showstoppers in the field.

Develop three SP3′s and sign a FA ace and trade for another. Develop at least 4 of your bullpen arms from among the guys who didn’t make it as starting pitchers. That leaves it down to a manageable 3 spots in the bullpen to replace/upgrade every year and a couple of spots here or there that you did not successfully develop your own solution.

The typical free agent position player is available at 31 or 32 and at the very best will only last 4 years or so. Sure there are exceptions but those are the best of the best. Guys like Beltran and Reyes who were good enough to make the Majors at 19 or 20. Those guys usually do not make it to FA. Guys like Castillo, Alou, Bay simply don’t have the shelf life remaining to justify tying up a roster spot, clogging up payroll and giving up draft choices for. Even if they do perform great it’s only going to be for a short time and there is at least a 50% chance that even a waiver wire acquisition, in his prime like a Turner or a Pridie will play better or at least be able to stay on the field.

Your never really just one player away anyway. Anytime you think that your about to make a big mistake because there is every chance that player gets hurt or doesn’t play the same as he did before. Even an elite superstar in his prime could break a wrist and miss the whole season. With Bay (playing the easiest defensive position on the field, which to my surprise I have to admit he’s played it pretty well) He was never one of the games elite players. He may have been one of the Pirates big two in his prime when they had nobody and then a complimentary piece in Boston but his three prior years combined before coming here weren’t really all that much better than his first year here in 2010 and it’s really not unusual for a player to post a big year right before the decline takes full efect. Just look at Roberto Alomar, Chone Figgins, Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth or Derrick Jeter. It’s also not unusual to see guys produce differently in different leagues, parks and lineups than they did before.

I really cant wait and I seriously hope that Juan Lagares has a bang up 2012 split equally between AA and AAA and can then take over LF competently and be here for 6-8-10 years so at least LF will be finally taken care of and if he’s not a superstar that’s OK. At least he’s young enough to be here at his best and that alone will put him in the top half of LFers and if Duda can do the same in RF, some combination of Tejada, Valdespin or Havens at 2B, Kirk, Den Dekker and especially Puello in CF and Centano/Cordero at catcher Lutz, Flores or Marte at 3B we could finally field a coherent team young enough to compete day in and day out in the dog days of a pennant race and have the payroll and minor league depth to add a free agent/salary dump ace or two.

This reliance on constantly importing a player in decline for every need in your starting eight is what has led to more losing seasons in the last two decades than winning one’s. When you lose more than win you have no shot at the postseason.

For every Delgado, Ventura and Piazza there have been 3 Coleman’s, Burnitz, Wagner’s, Vaughn’s, Castillo’s, Alomar’s, Bay’s, Alou’s and even those guys who did play well when they were able to be on the field weren’t able to be on it enough especially when you deep down needed them to be.

Give me three Juan Lagares’ at any one time in the system and I’ll take it any day as opposed to one Jason Bay and I’ll not only be better in LF, I’ll have 16M to stick in the rotation too.

Martinez? Maybe, but he’d be better off getting regular PAs than platooning.

Kirk probably won’t be ready next season.

Murphy isn’t that bad against lefties and … we remember the last time he played OF.

Duda doesn’t really suffer that much against lefties.

Jesus Feliciano is a 31 year old career minor leaguer. Not sure if I’d burn a roster spot for him.

Valdespin is intriguing, but he’s another guy I’d rather get PAs than platooning, plus, he’d have to learn a new position.

Not sure if I’d burn a spot for Baxter.

I guess the best option is Martinez and maybe have him spell Duda and whoever plays CF once in a while.

They must miss the old days when the mets were players for the old guys!

Of course they should do it in 2012, and not because of the option.

if he sucks this bad next year, 2013 won’t matter at all, as he will either be benched or just released.

Though if they aren’t getting real salary relief, probably better off just keeping him into next year, and looking to platoon.

They do have a couple of MiL prospects that hit lefty and could be broken in that way (Kirk, F Mart).

I forget the exact numbers, but at this point, Bay has a decent OPS (mid-.800s maybe?) vs. LHP, and vs. RHP an OPS that Pelfrey would laugh at for being so bad.

Cutting Bay now would be a disaster because of the vesting option.

could end up being platooned with F Mart even, if they decide to carry him!

The people on this blog and others, make assumptions that when someone posts a factual argument against lies made about Alderson that means they are saying he is a genius, when that statement was never made.

His best years are past. He still can hit lefty pitching. Put him in a platoon. He is not half bad. Were Stuck with his contract for the next two years anyway! Just don’t let him vest his option year with at bats.

Alderson is correcting years wasting money and talent.