21
2011
Building A Contender: How Far Away Are We?
An article by 
I recently made a joke in the comments to a piece that Brandon Butler did about what our priorities should be in the offseason after settling the Reyes Issue which will be front and center. I thought I should expand on what I said and show the facts to justify my opinion. Basically I said the offseason focus should be:
1 – Pitching
2 – More Pitching
3 – Even More Pitching
4 – While you’re at it better get Pitching
5 – Then look for Pitching!
There is a lot of truth in what is said in jest…
Let’s start off by comparing our regular players to those of the Phillies.
1B – Ike Davis (.302 BA, .543 Slg .383 OBP) vs Ryan Howard (.249 BA, .429 SLG, .343 OBP)
Ryan Howard hit a HR once for every 16.3 ABs Ike Davis hit one for every 18.4 Abs But Davis hit .302 and Howard hit .249 so Ike was way more valuable than Howard when niether hit a HR! And Davis is probably capable of hitting AS many while keeping that average if he stayed healthy all season and played in the summer months where the ball goes out easier! Add the superior fielding of Ike over Howard and it’s Advantage Mets
2B – Murphy (.320 BA, .448 SLG, .362 OBP) vs Utley (.263 BA, .443 SLG, .343 OBP)
Utley is a superior fielder no doubt with a .991 FP at 2B. Murphy at 2B has a .978. Is it really such a bad tradeoff to give up -.02 in fielding for +.057 in BA, +.005 in SLG and +.019 in OBP especially when you consider the fact that this was Murphy’s first year playing 2B? I will give the edge to Utley here but it’s so slim when you consider the whole player that it’s almost non existent! Only question is will Murphy actually play 2B next year?
SS – Reyes (.331 BA, .481 SLG, .376 OBP) vs Rollins (.268 BA, .395 SLG, .343 OBP)
Not much to say other than the fact that the Phillies are probably going to make an offer for Reyes which will tell you EVERYTHING you need to know about this match-up. Advantage CLEARLY METS!
3B – Wright (.263 BA, .448 SLG, .353 OBP) vs Polanco (.281 BA, .345 SLG, .340 OBP)
We give up only .018 BA to get +.105 in SLG. And this in a year where you can hardly call a banner year for Wright with his missed time that coincides with his historical best months of June and July! Polanco has a .975 FP compared to Wrights .927 but that 100 points of SLG clearly outweigh that! Advantage again CLEARLY Mets!
C – Thole (.263 BA, .343 SLG, .345 OBP) vs Ruiz (.278 BA, .381 SLG, .370 OBP)
Thole and Ruiz have the same exact FP. Ruiz Gave up 70 SBs with 22 CS and Thole 61 SB with 15 CS. Not a big difference when you consider our pitching staff’s poor ability to hold runners! Still I’ll give the edge to Ruiz here!
Now the picture changes a bit towards the Phillies mostly due to SLG
RF – Duda (.292 BA, .480 SLG, .365 OBP) vs Pence (.315 BA, .545 SLG, .386 OBP)
No contest here really but consider Mayberry (.269 BA, .521 SLG, .332 OBP) was their guy before they went and got Pence to replace him. They already had a 10 game lead with Mayberry. Advantage Phillies
CF – Pagan (.261 BA, .375 SLG, .319 OBP) vs Victorino (.289 BA, .508 SLG, .367 OBP)
Nothing to discuss here Victorino and the Phillies are the CLEAR winner here!
LF – Bay (.246 BA, .375 SLG, .329 OBP) vs Brown (.246 BA, .393 SLG, .335 OBP) and Ibanez (.243 BA, .423 SLG, .290 OBP)
Hmm pretty similar with the exception of SLG which has been the deciding factor in all of the OF positions and we will address now… Look at those SLG numbers that determined the main advantage of the Phillies over us in the OF.
A simple look at Park Factors tells the story…
Compare those numbers between the bandbox they play in and Citi Field… Is it any wonder why their hitters have such a great SLG compared to ours?
CBP is CLEARLY a Hitter’s park which explains why they need to buy and steal all the best pitching money can buy to win ballgames. So how many of those advantages on offense were merely a product of the park they play in?
Probably ALL of them… Especially when you consider we have some players like Davis, Murphy, Reyes and Wright who are better in those areas despite playing in Citi Field. Put them on the Phillies and they would actually be offensive upgrades over more than half of the Phillies lineup.
So what makes the Phillies so much better than us?
It’s all about the PITCHING!
I don’t think I need to show stats here to state what is obvious, Phillies have the best pitching money can buy and need it to keep the scores within reason at the home bandbox which also helps them win games away when the pitching does not need to be so stingy. And if we could match that pitching somewhat, the park factors would compensate and make the comparable pitching look even better than what the Phillies have. None of our pitchers matchup with the Phillies battery of starters and only RA Dickey actually comes close to matching them on the QS column, but that is simply not enough.
Their starters are stifling, go deep into games (saving and resting their Bullpen) and thier bullpen has two or three guys who could be front line closers on other teams in the league, especially us. But we have some kids in the Minors who could change all of that soon. Harvey probably being the first, Familia and Mejia next followed by Wheeler. That’s 4/5ths of a starting rotation.
Dickey is no Ace (3.35 ERA), but he is every bit comparable to Oswalt (3.66 ERA) who is a FA this winter. Maybe he bests Dickey in our Pitcher’s park, but he won’t leave there to come here anyway so get that thought out of your head.
Niese had a poor year but could rebound if he can take the next step up in his development. Gee started strong, but they figured him out, He needs to adjust. Santana is a big question mark at this point, but not a useless arm by any stretch of the imagination. I say make him the closer, but that’s just me.
Pelfrey’s contract is up and might not be worth tendering an offer in arbitration. Capuano is good for five innings a game and Young is pretty much in the same boat as Santana only a couple of months behind.
The bullpen is just horrible and it must be rebuilt, but if we can hold out long enough with the players we have and some improvement from the starters it might just hold the line long enough for those kids I mentioned to come up and add that young potential ace pitching we don’t have but the Phillies do!. If that happens then we will have quite a few guys who we can bump to or trade for Bullpen. And since the budget will be in order even after Reyes’ signing we will have the money to go after good FA pitching when it is available.
We have a ton of other prospects available as trade bait or to fill bench depth either as bench themselves or as replacements for current starters who would then comprise our bench. No less than 5 players who can play 2B, SS and/or 3B – Three of those have proved the ability to hit at this level. Two or Three who can play 1B as well, One them was in the race for the batting title. We have quite a few OF prospects who can replace Pagan and Bay if we let them go provided they show the ability to stay healthy and hit in the MLB.
All in All this team is probably in the best position it has been in over 25 years while some make the claim it is the worst!
They make that claim because it fits the implementation of their philosophy to claim it or they merely look at the GB column and not the comparable player by player comparison. When they DO compare they use the grass is greener bias to judge both without taking into account the park factors or actual performance.
This team could be a dominant team but it probably won’t happen next year. And in order to dominate you have to be in a position to do what the Phillies did and go and buy what you need when your close enough to need it. That means buying tickets and cheering for the players when your there! Never forget the affect of the 10th Player…YOU!
The one comparison that is difficult to make between the two teams is that fighting spirit! The Mets showed that this summer for the first in years and it is that fighting spirit that puts the Phillies into position to do what they are doing now… Luring top pitching to come and play for them!
The last thing this team needs is a major shakeup in the regular lineup. It’s really all about our lack of pitching in a pitchers ballpark! Minor moves will be made but the infield is one of the best hitting IFs in the league!
We don’t need CY YOUNG on the mound every day the way the Phillies do, But we do need some pitching that can look like Cy Young when they pitch in our Pitcher’s ballpark! So Pitching Pitching and More Pitching should be our focus and plan going forward.
As I’ve shown, our regular position players match up quite well with the Phillies despite the park factors the Phillies have in their favor. If we merely match up our Pitching to theirs the NL East will be not be dominated by them. And the Braves (who we just took 2 of 3 from) will wind up chasing US for the Wildcard even as soon as next year.
This team has FIGHT now, and that’s as important as BA, OBP and SLG when it comes to winning games because it’s easier to win a game 2-1 than it is to win one 10-9.
All it takes is the Pitching and a team that NEVER QUITS!
This Fan Shot was submitted by Metsie.
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Well i am flattered LOL. Great piece Metsie.
Like i said to you in the comments you can never have too much pitching. I agree that the Mets do need pitching. If you think about it, if the Mets can actually grab a big-name starter, then it would be all we need considering Matt Harvey, and Zach Wheeler are coming up the ladders (or the farm system).
I wish it were that easy. Unfortunately, only big named starter this year is CJ, and I can’t see throwing 90-100 mil his way. Would love to have him on the team, just not for that amount of cash. And based on not getting back the Johan of old and Pelf being what he is, this team needs 2+ starters. Hopefully that coincides with the time when Wheeler and Harvey make the jump (as well as Mejia too).
Bobby O was not a major acquisition but he did help fill in the hole around Gooden, Darling and Fernandez.
You don’t always have to buy big to get better.
Instead of looking at WHIP and all those other advanced metrics just get guys who have a low ERA.
Lower the ERA and the same runs we scored that tied us with the Phillies will translate itself into the GB column!
Games we lost 6-5 will be won 5-3
If we just win HALF the games that the pen blew we would be in the Wildcard race right now!
Win Half the games where we lost games due to the SP giving up 4 runs and the lead in the 6th and your playing for the division!
This team SCORES runs…Mostly because it HAS to!
So they can score as many runs as anyone it just isn’t enough to make up for the Pitching, fix the pitching and those runs are enough to compete for the playoffs.
I hear you. My comment was more on the state of the FA market out there. I’d prob. equate Bobby O to be CJ Wilson or better than CJ. So, I’d be all for adding him, but he’s going to be costly. After CJ, it’s a big drop from there (not factoring in CC, as he’s not going anywhere).
But certainly agreed on lowering the ERA equally more wins. Heck, just subtracting Iggy, Pelfrey and Parnell would equal more wins…
What is lost on the extremists who post here is you really have to pick your shots on who and when to buy in FA!
Jason Bay is the PERFECT example of making a move for the sake of making a move despite the fact he was not anywhere near the money he got and would not have gotten that money if the FA market actually had a better player available to be bought!
If say Beltran was FA that year Bay wouldn’t have gotten that Money Beltran would have!
Because the FA pickins were slim you had more demand for a lesser player than he would normally have and therefore the money went up due to supply and demand market priciples!
So instead of shopping for PRICE (low OR high) shop for performance and then let the market decide how much it is worth!
Cause people forget that a guy who is the highest paid player in the MLB will be cheap by the time his contract is near it’s end!
The money they get is never based on how much they do just how much was available to bid on at the time they signed.
And some LESSER guy will probably make more than him if he is signed in a slim market the following year….Like Bay!
Well you should be Brandon you posed the PERFECT question, the one that everyone should be asking and also the subject that causes the most debate here!
I don’t know that there is a big name starter available to grab this year but I am left to wonder if a BIG NAME is actually required at all.
In the run up to 86 we traded for Ojeda (Vet but no Ace), and made trades for guys like Darling and Fernandez (MiLs). We already had Aguilera and with the addition of the home grown Gooden made a very strong rotation.
So I am not sure we need to buy big in the SP market to get the job done.
And I am not suggesting this can all be done in a year either.
But Two years is a reasonable timeline for a reworked Pitching squad and coincides with the timeline of Harvey, Familia, Mejia and Wheeler if they don’t have any setbacks.
When I look at the regulars it only underscores the need to keep Reyes. Our entire IF and all of it’s options are still quite young, our OF is in flux but Duda has proved he can hit and with experience can hit for power. Great protection for a guy like Wright and Davis. Might even be the #3 hitter if Murphy isn’t in the regular lineup.
I just see too many people looking at the standings without looking at WHY those standings are what they are.
And it’s mostly about the Pitching and the Park.
We can score just as many runs in Citifield as the Phillies do in a bandbox the logical conclusion should be if we pitch better we will win more games because it won’t require us to score more runs to win.
And to tear down this team seems to do nothing but DELAY that day we compete as we will have to take focus away from the REAL problem due to creating new needs we don’t have now!
well, i guess after the 2011 offseason we’d be able to see exactly how far away are we.. right???
isn’t that what happens every year?
well, if i say something negative about alderson i get blasted here, as i posted back a loooooong time ago, no matter how bad the mets were this year, it was gonna be omar’s fault, but if they were good sandy was getting the praised because he “made changes.. that’s the way it goes, see arizona and kevin towers getting all the praise because they are doing good..
Gms are like presidents. They get credit for stuff they don’t deserve, and blame too.
in both cases, you really can’t say what their legacy is until a few years after they leave.
No you won’t really know till 2013 and the kids in the Minors are ready to enter the rotation.
No one is suggesting you can rebuild a pitchin staff in a year!
Two years is reasonable.
But it isn’t going to work if you get rid of the regular players who score enough runs to win as much as the Phillies do!
Such a moving target. Involving teams other than your own (teams go up and down all the time, sometimes significantly in 1 year).
And of course the mets aren’t going to just build through the minors (waiting for prospects to take over). Most likely, at least 1-2 of the guys in the rotation next year aren’t even in the Mets system yet.
so big question marks. Health of course is a major one (not just for the Mets). And how well any acquisitions do (along with how fast prospects develop) is another.
Probably too much to expect for next year, unless a ton of things break the right way. But you just can’t right off 2013 even based on what is on the field today. The same way you can’t “know” a team that is good now (say, the Phils) will still be looking at 100 wins 2 years into the future!
All you can do as a GM is hope to maintain what works and improve what doesn’t!
None of us believe the Mets hit the way they SHOULD be hitting when they are healthy!
Yet despite that they still score as many runs as the Phillies do!
We think Wright had a down year…
We think Davis would have added a lot to our offense if he was here but he wasn’t!
We think Duda can be a better hitter in time!
We also think it isn’t going to be too hard to improve on Pagan!
And we believe that Bay is not a very good offensive threat either!
So with all of that NEGATIVITY they managed to score as much as the Phillies!
It is reasonable to believe that can improve with the healthy Wright and Davis in the Lineup.
Only question is will the Murphys, Turners, and Tejadas continue what they showed!
It is reasonable to think they will maintain and eclipse their run scoring ability next year.
And yes what you said applies to the Phillies as much as it applies to us!
Their Pitching could have a bad year too! They are no spring chickens and one injury to Halliday and Lee could put them in the hole.
But we can’t build based on that. If we fix our pitching maybe some of what we have improves, maybe what he get holds the score so those RS numbers translate to wins.
But that last thing we should be looking to do is to make changes in the guys who scored those runs even in a year where we thought they were not hitting to specs!
A good year from Wright and Davis should improve the RS Both should end a season with 80-100 RBI!
Wright is in the 50′s right now! Add another 50 to that and we will be leading the league in RS!
So the only thing that can lose games if that happens is the pitching giving up more runs!
also, isn’t pitching much more variable year to year (with guys going up and down, losing it suddenly, and of course getting hurt?)
Good pitching is the key to any winning team in mlb.Always has and always will.I cannot take any post seriously that has danny murphy playing second base.Of all the positions he is ill suited to play, 2nd base is by far the worse.He cannot turn a double play and is clueless how to play second leading to 2 severe knee injuries.Don’t you ever watch the games?I guess you think Ike Davis should play the outfield if we could bring in Fielder from the brewers.The reason Murphy is so bad in the field is because he has never been able to play his natural position (3rd base).Now, you hear people say move a golden glove like Davis to the outfield if Fielder could be signed.I find it all laughable
Well gary he hit .320 this year!
So whats more REALISTIC to you?
Playing Murphy at 2nd or playing him in the OF?
And if you say NEITHER then I will simply reply in kind and say no one will take anyone who would sit a .320 hitter seriously!
The whole article is kind of laughable. Ike Davis is better than Ryan Howard? PLEASE! Howard is overrated but rating Davis better is a joke. Ike even said his ankle is never going to be the same. He could just return horrible next year after his season ending injury that was never really explained to the fans. A baseball player that has limited mobility is useless. The same with Murphy, murphy hasn’t shown any ability to field any position and is a simply terrible second baseman. He can’t play outfield either. The Mets would be crazy to have him at third over Wright and trading Wright is probably not going to happen no matter how much some fans will cry for it. Wright is a 5 time all star and Murphy is the guy who hurt himself kneeling behind second base. Also the article puts Reyes at SS when thats not a foregone conclusion. What about Tejada?
yes Guppy Ike davis is MUCH better than Howard!
other than HRs Howard stats are awful!
And your talking about only 5 or 6 more than Davis would have if he played all year based on HR Pr AB ratios!
But 50-60 hits and extra base hits less than Davis based on the SLG!
Davis played a month and put up good numbers and you’re saying you know he would’ve continued at that pace and been better than Howard.Lay off the pipe or give me the powerball numbers since you have a crystal ball.
He put up numbers Howard has NEVER put up even at his hottest!
And when the glove comes into play Howard is Daniel Murphy compared to Davis’ Hernandez!
I agree with Metsguppy on this one. Ike better than Howard is laughable to say the least.Ike played a month,there’s no way of knowing if he would’ve maintained that pace where as Howard puts up his numbers every year,CBP or not,no park holds his shots.Plus the guy always carries the team in September to the finish line.Utley even with a bad knee is still a much better all around player than Murphy who sucks anywhere outside of the batters box.Can hit,can’t run,can’t field,bad bserunner,dreadful instincts,pretty dumb baseball player.Reyes of course no question.I myself would take polanco over Wright for many reasons.You could have the extra slug% because when the game is on the line polanco is the better of the two hands down.Cather is not even close.I love how you barely give Ruiz the edge when Ruiz is much much much much better than Thole.OF is not even worth discussing unless Beltran was still here.The only difference I think between me and Metsguppy is I want them to trade Wright,noy for Murphy but a kid like Chisenhall from Cleveland who’s going to be a very good 3rd baeman and Cleveland could use a drawing card with their dwindling attendace.Chisenhall and McCallister for Wright would be a great deal for both teams.
[...] Metsmerized is more concerned with building a pitching staff than a new outfield wall. [...]
Isn’t it sad that even though we have three current or former Gm’s in the front office, none of them realized the offense they inherited was good enough to win and all it needed was a real pitcher to replace Santana not all those guys they signed with the broken wings. It’s kind of scary how oblivious they all were to what this team’s needs were last offseason, and it doesnt bode well for this offseason either. Now that they freed up all that cash, 65 million, they are already saying they wont spend most of it. The Moneyballers got their way. Which of course won’t add up to more wins.
Forgot to say excellent post by Metsie as usual. Some posters here actually have a clue.
MM I’m just not sure I can hang Sandy on not getting one considering the fact that Lee was the one we really needed and not much else was there!
But I agree with the conclusion that if we had gotten a ace type pitcher for this year it would have made the race a hell of a lot closer than it was.
If for no other reason than stopping that 5-13 slide at the start and resting the Bullpen that was way over used early in the season due to all the bad starts from what we had.
But other than Lee I’m not sure who he gets, I’m sure there are guys out there that did well AND were cheap too.
Well he had 5 million to work with and 8 holes to fill with the Wilponzi budget so it would’ve been impossible to acquire an ace.This offseason there is more to work with but even less on the market.He’s going to have to trade for one,if available,maybe SF would trade Cain for Wright or one of the kids is going to have to take a huge step forward,don’t hold your breath though.
This article is often laughably bad. Fighting spirit? Is that a joke? What are those ML ready prospects that can replace Pagan?
Flores? FMart?
Nuenwhius?
You just because someone is blind and can’t see doesn’t mean there is nothing there around them!
F-Mart is no longer a prospwct.He can never go a full season without injury and has arthritic knees.He no longer plays CF.He’s a corner guy now.Maybe one day he’ll be a 4th OF’er.Niewenhuis is another future 4th OF’er but he was improving before the injury so the door is still open for him and Flores is a long ways away and without a position.
How far away are we? Oh I would say somewhere in the middle of China.
Hey Metsie, just wanted to give you a heads up. I have a post tomorrow that is largely inspired by your fan post today. Though I give you props in the post I wanted to say thanks in here as well for providing the idea which pretty much echoes the theme behind your post today.
I can’t wait to read it MNJ!
And thanks for thre Props!
Good piece here but I would have to argue over the first base comparison. Yes, Davis is still just a full season in the majors and yes he should do even better. Ike, however will never be quite the home run threat that Ryan Howard is. Ike should be a 30 homer guy with a .290 plus batting average but Howard is a 50 homer threat. Howard had an off year especially having lost his lineup protection with Jason Werth behind him.
Pitching comparisons…..there are none! When Wheeler and Harvey are ready that would be a beginning but until then we don’t compare. When he’s zeroed in Dickey can be very good but on a whole our starters only give us 5-6 quality innings and then the roof caves in.
I would say the days of Howard being a 50 HR threat are done and gone.
Plus put Ike in Philly or Cincy for 81 games a season, you never know…
yes Allen Ike will never be the HR threat Howard is.
But then again Howard wouldn’t be the HR threat he is if he played 80+ games in CitiField either!
A double will clear the bases just as easily as a HR will. Everyone loves a HR but they are really only useful in a tied game or when your behind by one run and have no one on base. In all other runner on base situations a Double will get the job done!
And if you look at his numbers Ike’s SLG and Average would suggest when all ius said and done while he will have fewer HRs he will have WAY more RBI which is really more important than how many dingers you hit!