10
2011
The Audacity Of Second Guessing Success and The Myth That The Sacrifice Bunt Is Obsolete
An article by 
I can’t help tossing my hat into the ring over this silly debate about Lucas Duda dropping down a successful sacrifice bunt in the eight inning of last night’s 5-4 win over the Padres.
With the Mets down by a run and nobody out, Duda came to the plate with runners on first and second and dropped down a beauty of a sacrifice bunt to advance both runners to second and third.
It’s a play that is as old as the game itself, and yet there are those who would prefer to get rid of the sacrifice bunt altogether. Hogwash.
The bunt made perfect sense and I applaud Duda for thinking rationally and playing the game the way it was intended.
What happened next was an intentional walk to Jason Bay and then a sacrifice fly by pinch-hitter Nick Evans to drive home the tying run. Ronny Paulino and Ruben Tejada would walk as well, forcing home David Wright with the winning run. Mission Accomplished.
Yes, Duda was the clean-up hitter, and yes, Duda is built like the Incredible Hulk, but no, he did not commit a rookie mistake, and no, it was not a terrible decision.
The Mets were playing small-ball and many a game and a World Series title has been won playing small ball. I wish Angel Pagan, Daniel Murphy and Jose Reyes had the baseball IQ and smarts to do what Lucas Duda did last night.
You would think most Mets fans would understand by now that Citi Field’s dimensions were made for small ball. You would think most Mets fans would look at the team stats and see that not one player has reached double-digits in home runs yet.
And even if you were oblivious to the vastness of Citi Field or that the Mets RBI leader is on pace for a 68 RBI season, how can you ignore the fact that Lucas Duda’s career OPS against LHP is .589 compared to .787 against RHP? Small sample size maybe, but that’s been the case his entire professional career and Duda is the first one to admit it.
“You’ve got Jason Bay behind me, and Nick Evans,” Duda said. “Those guys are more than capable of getting the job done. It was a tough lefty on the mound, lefty-on-lefty, and I’m not exactly smashing lefties this year.”
Bravo, Duda!
So Duda walked up to the plate, looked up at scoreboard and saw the Mets desperately needed a run, rather than risk striking out or worse yet grounding into a double play, he squared his bat and decided to do what he thought would give the Mets the best chance to win and then executed that plan to perfection.
Even Duda’s own manager could see the greatness of that one singular age-old baseball moment and the foresight behind Duda’s decision,
“That’s what makes this kid really, in my opinion, special,” Collins said. “He is head and shoulders above any 21-year-olds or any 20-year-olds in the big leagues today, as far as thought process.”
Is the sacrifice bunt still relevant in baseball?
You bet your ass it is, and last night was clear and convincing evidence of it.
Last night was baseball like it oughta be!
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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wow, that is the definition of a team player, drop down a bunt when is needed for the better of the team.. nice!!!!
Two things.
I like Duda. Great with the bat, great team player, and I look forward to seeing more of him. Definitely 20HR+ power in that bat and an acceptable average, maybe .270?
But secondly, Cerrone mentioned this on Metsblog, and I’ll quote it.
“Thankfully, Jason Isringhausen locked down a 1-2-3 inning and insurance runs were not needed. But, had the Padres rallied to take a lead in the ninth, I suspect we’d be a little less impressed with Duda this morning and wondering why Collins let him bunt in what was also an obvious RBI situation.”
Regardless, no time for second guessing. He offered to lay down a bunt, he did, and we’re all happy because the Mets won. Good game last night.
Cerrone is wrong. Insurance runs would be nice, but lets not forget we were losing going into the eight and we scored three runs late and took the lead. We had momentum and we were the home team. Plus there is still a bottom of the ninth to be played. Alderson decided that Izzy is our closer. I know of no manager that is thinking that his closer might blow the lead in the ninth while they are tring to come from behind in the eight. That is a defeatist’s thougt process and players will sense it. You have a team and each player plays a role, Izzy’s role is to close and that’s what he did. Collin’s role was to navigate a win in the eight inning and that’s what he did. Duda’s role was to drop down a perfect sac bunt and thats’s whaty he did. The Mets won as a team. That’s baseball.
But at the same time Joe
“Those guys are more than capable of getting the job done. It was a tough lefty on the mound, lefty-on-lefty, and I’m not exactly smashing lefties this year”
Isn’t that a defeatist thought as well? I find it unfair to think “we need runs in case Izzy isn’t effective” being labeled defeatist if “I have to bunt because I can’t hit lefties” is not.
Let me ask you this question… in 5 years if Duda is the regular #4 hitter for the Mets. Do you want him laying down that bunt? Keep in mind if Duda is the #4 hitter in 5 years it’s because he’s earned it and matured likely.
I very much doubt you would. So aren’t we giving Duda a pass because we are allowing his excuse of being ineffective to be valid?
Five years is the entire point!
If Duda proves to be a major bat in Mets lineup by then–like a Piazza or Beltran, then, no, he doesn’t bunt. That is Then, This is Now!
Exactly RZ!
Zanca: Okay thank you. You proved my point.
You’re not happy Duda bunted because it’s a smart baseball play. You’re happy he bunted because you don’t think he can succeed as a hitter.
That’s my point. If you want to tell me it is a “smart baseball move” Fine. But if you wouldn’t do it if Duda was a better hitter, then its not about a baseball move so much as it is about the specific hitter.
I proved YOUR point?! WTF?
Look, Duda is not a proven hitter. He has neither been touted nor promoted as a cleanup hitter. What Duda is at this point in his career is a ROOKIE with some talent and genuine raw power. He is, inarguably, a replacement guy who never factored into the Mets 2011 plans as the cleanup hitter. Or don’t you agree?
He was prescient enough in THIS circumstance to feel overmatched, so he decided to try and make a productive out–get two men into scoring position (esp. a man to third, guaranteeing a run in many instances w/ one out)–rather than swing away risking one or two unproductive outs.
So I would say, NO, I didn’t make your point at all.
Duda might be an Albert Pujols in FIVE years, but he’s just a Duda now, and I like more and more of what he contributes…like helping win us baseball games.
That’s my point, and I don’t think it makes yours.
That’s why Cerrone is a reporter. His opinions are pretty much worthless. The bottom line is the Mets won. The job of the closer is to secure the lead. Duda enabled the Mets to get the lead by putting the lead run into scoring position.
“That’s why Cerrone is a reporter. His opinions are pretty much worthless.”
Says the anonymous commenter on an internet blog.
“The bottom line is the Mets won.”
Yes, despite Duda’s bunt.
“The job of the closer is to secure the lead.”
No, the job of the closer is to benefit from his team’s success.
“Duda enabled the Mets to get the lead by putting the lead run into scoring position.”
Duda hindered their chances by giving up the out.
Duda had his head in the game not like some other Mets who have a propensity to have mental gaffs at bad times, way to go Lucas!
i’m sorry, i am confused, didn’t we win the game last night??? in part because of duda’s bunt??????? am i missing something here?
I didn’t really have a big problem with it. My only concern is, I feel if you hit in the middle of the lineup moreso than a bottom lineup guy your job first and foremost is to not make an out. Sure, a sac fly is nice but you’ve still lessened your odds of having a successful inning.
If Duda swings the bat, maybe both runners score there who knows? What if 1 run isn’t enough?
But honestly, what I REALLY didn’t like about it was this quote
“Those guys are more than capable of getting the job done. It was a tough lefty on the mound, lefty-on-lefty, and I’m not exactly smashing lefties this year”
You know that to me is Lucas Duda saying he’s not ready to hit big league pitching. There isn’t a moment in the universe where you will hear Ryan Howard say that and then drop down a bunt. I mean Duda is hitting .269 against lefties, it’s not like he’s an automatic out…
If you’re dropping a bunt down because you think it’s a smart move, fine. But if you’re doing it out of fear that you can’t get the job you’re batting 4th to do… then that’s the problem.
He’s saying it was the smart move because he can’t get the job done. That is a TERRIBLE quote.
I get what you’re saying Joe but at the end of the day, he used an old school tactic because he thought he couldn’t get the job done… not because it was a smart move.
Duda did not make a terrible quote, he was being realistic. I thought “being realistic” was the new “in” thing?
“A man’s got to know his limitations” – Dirty Harry
JEEEZUS, the guy’s a rookie.
Your comment, seriously, is a lame one.
What Duda did was play intelligent baseball. Sorry, but your holier-than-thou attitude about an MLBer batting cleanup and needing confidence completely ignores who the Mets are, and what Duda’s readiness for assuming that role is.
Moreover, cleanup hitters hit for power not avg. A productive out is crucial in such an instance, and that is what the kid accomplished.
Last thing we needed there was a DP ball, K, or pop up.
Duda made the right move.
“Moreover, cleanup hitters hit for power not avg”
So you’re telling me I am wrong but you’re saying cleanup hitters hit for power so you’re happy he bunted?
Look I know this keeps getting spun. I do not care that he bunted. I care WHY he bunted. He bunted because he didn’t have confidence that his ability to swing the bat would get a run in.
That’s what I have a problem with.
I think he was smart enough to know that he was not hitting LHP well at this point, and that moving the runners up was smart. This scenario is the only one that statistically is the right bunting play. I do not think it has anything to do wi confidence, but rather understanding the game. I normally hate the bunt, but there are times it is useful, and this was one of them. Kudos to Duda for seeing that.
Duda made the right play. Old school baseball at it’s finest. Puts pressure on the pitcher and the defense. Something not accounted for in sabremush baseball. Duda is a rookie. He very easily could have hit into a DP. He’s NOT Ryan Howard so that comparison is ridiculous. The idea is to get those runners into scoring position. Any batter in the lineup can hit a single or a sac fly at that point.
Jessep – It’s fair to say that we baseball fans know about the cleanup hitter, roles,etc…..
I think you’re putting too much on his words, it’s been quoted, by many that Duda is painfully shy and face it not well spoken, lets not dissect his words so much before he’s even had a full year under his belt.
In this case, it worked, lets just enjoy it.
But Kay… the guy said it. I didn’t make him say it. You think he would say it if he didn’t feel it?
At the end of the day, the guy who is supposed to be the cleanup hitter thought he was more valuable dropping a bunt than swinging the bat. A young player with terrible confidence is a terrible thing.
I know, all valid points, but considering all the variables included in this season, and all the shifting around, I’d cut the guy slack, at least, this one time.
Also, at this point in his early career, we could argue “Is he a true cleanup hitter”? Today, I’d say no, but considering the circumstances he is…..
Yes, the bunt worked. That doesn’t make it the right move.
And no one wants to ban the sac bunt, just scale it back. A lot. The fact is, if the best you can do as a hitter is “not hit into a double play”, you probably shouldn’t be starting on a major league roster. It’s one thing to take the bat out of the hands of a pitcher, but your clean up hitter? Really?
Yes, it worked out this one time, but it better not become a habit.
Duda is clean up hitter by default. He’s not Carlos Beltran or Carlos Delgado or David Wright. He is a rookie getting his feet wet in the bigs. After 500 big league at bats, then you have something to whine about. He’s a rookie with a ton of inexperience. He did the right thing, though. When he is recognized as a 35 homer 120 rbi threat, then we can go haywire if he decides to bunt in that situation. And quite frankly, I still wouldn’t have an issue if he’s facing a tough lefty. The bunt is still an acceptable move.
He’s not Luis Castillo either. He’s a power hitter. Swing the bat. How much experience is he getting by surrendering in that PA?
the sacrifice bunt is a way to trade the chance of a big inning for a better chance at one run. its a very stupid move in most all cases, except times like this. i dunno what anybody with any brain would oppose a sac bunt to score one run that wins the game late.
sac bunts are tragically bad decisions in other times of the game. i think joe is arguing against a position that nobody holds.
Because we wouldn’t know it would be the winning run. Duda is a power hitter. The odds say let him swing.
the odds do not say that. you need to rerun the numbers. again, sac bunts are very verystupid, except in rare cases when one run is so critical that getting it is worth hugely lowering the expected runs score total for the inning. the bunt makes you score many, many fewer runs. but it makes one run a bit more likely in situations like this, when it advances the runners and gets you out of the double play.
usuually in that situation the next batter will be walked, setting up a tough situation where the pitcher risks walking in a run and cant throw balls to the next batter.
again, you are mostly right, and the sac bunt is a guaranteed way to score fewer run. but yesterday they only needed one very important run.
oops i made a terrible mistake. now i realize there was already a man on second, and the bunt was in fact critically stupid. i dunno what i was thinking. you bunt guys to second late in games, not to third.
Because hitting a single or a fly ball w/ one out and a man on second guarantees a run, right?
Oh, actually it doesn’t, but bunting two men into scoring position w/ one out as a result does GUARANTEE that a single or fly ball brings a run in.
I’m sorry, run the “stupid” part past me again.
right. but swinging away can result in good consequences as well. you cant just say things randomly, you have actually consider the odds of various things.
What do the law of percentages say are the odds on good results from swinging away compared to the odds of moving the runners over on a bunt?
Bunting has a 97% success rate for moving the runner over, Swinging away has a less than 30% chance of doing something good UNTIL you have a runner on third that can score on a Sac Fly!
Yeah whats his PA to HR ratio?
Hes a real Ryan Howard is he?
lmao, i know metsie, what an idiot right?? a power hitter with 3 career HR in 240 at bats.. lmao.. jesus..
You don’t need a big inning, you just need to score more runs than the opposition!
Big innings are the goal in the 1st through the 6th!
When you get to the 7th Inning the goal is just to get the lead! Once you have it you can resume going after the BIG inning! Cause then if you fail it doesn’t matter it’s all about holding the lead you got!
metsie, plain and simple, WE WON!!!! in large part because DUDA bunted!!!!
But cerrone made that statement everyone HAS TO FOLLOW like little rabbits.. is amazing to me how ppl just are followers man..
“You don’t need a big inning, you just need to score more runs than the opposition!”
Yes, thank you. And giving up an out decreases your chances of scoring any runs.
“Big innings are the goal in the 1st through the 6th!
When you get to the 7th Inning the goal is just to get the lead! ”
No, you are trying to maximize your opportunities at every chance. It’s not like you get more runs for scoring in the 8th inning. Each runner across home = 1 run no matter the inning.
“Once you have it you can resume going after the BIG inning! Cause then if you fail it doesn’t matter it’s all about holding the lead you got!”
And sac bunting with your clean up hitter decreases the chance of scoring that first run.
LOL can you PROVE that giving up and out decreases your chance of scoring runs?
Cause it sure wasn’t the case last night now was it?
Dude gave up and out yes…Got a runner to third which allowed ANOTHER OUT to bat a run in!
So what you said is totally wrong!
Giving up TWO outs actually scored a run!
If he doesn’t bunt he MIGHT have given up TWO outs and erased a runner!
I suppose giving up TWO outs is better than one in your bizzarro workld of baseball!
“LOL can you PROVE that giving up and out decreases your chance of scoring runs?”
Yes, in fact, the articles you link do so
“Cause it sure wasn’t the case last night now was it?”
Yes, one instance. And if it didn’t, what would you and your ilk be saying?
“Dude gave up and out yes…Got a runner to third which allowed ANOTHER OUT to bat a run in!”
Why didn’t he try to do it himself? Why did he quit on it? Doesn’t he believe he can hit? Why are you celebrating a quitter?
“So what you said is totally wrong!
Giving up TWO outs actually scored a run!”
What I said was right. I can easily say the bunt cost an opportunity to score more runs.
“If he doesn’t bunt he MIGHT have given up TWO outs and erased a runner!”
Or he would have hit a double and scored both, plus put himself in a position to score as well.
“I suppose giving up TWO outs is better than one in your bizzarro workld of baseball!”
Is that the world where not making the playoffs is better than making the playoffs?
Here is another LINK for you…
Guess this one is all true since it is on the site of a news organization….
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/16437219/detail.html
Still have that Bridge, On Sale You Buying?
“Or he would have hit a double and scored both, plus put himself in a position to score as well.”
Whats the FREQUENCY rate on those compared to RBOEs????
Do you know what the frequency rate of moving a runner into scoring position is compared to swinging a bat?
For Bunts it’s about 97% for Swinging it’s somewhere below .300!
Right around where Batting Averages sit!
DO you know what the possibilities of a double or triple play is?
Double it’s about .300 Triple about .090!
Thats a .390 chance of hitting of something bad!
The use of the bunt to move runners over is called FUNDAMENTALS!
Too bad your more concerned with the ideas of a guy who thinks singles are half as good as HRs and you would yell at a batter for getting a hit instead of getting on by error!
Something to do with the FREQUENCIES…
My guess is you HEAR an awful lot of frequencies in your head!
Better read that Link I may have a good excsue for you to blame it on! Got any Tin Foil Helmets lying around?
“Here is another LINK for you…
Guess this one is all true since it is on the site of a news organization….
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/16437219/detail.html
Still have that Bridge, On Sale You Buying?”
Please stay on topic. If you can’t refute the evidence you yourself presented, you should probably stop talking.
“Whats the FREQUENCY rate on those compared to RBOEs????
Do you know what the frequency rate of moving a runner into scoring position is compared to swinging a bat?”
Do you know the success rate of sac bunting a runner into scoring position as opposed to swinging? It’s in the articles you posted.
“For Bunts it’s about 97% for Swinging it’s somewhere below .300!
Right around where Batting Averages sit!
DO you know what the possibilities of a double or triple play is?
Double it’s about .300 Triple about .090!
Thats a .390 chance of hitting of something bad!”
First: where did you get those number? Because the National League average double play percentage is 18% or 20% depending if you use PAs or ABs. The ML average is 19% or 21%. The Mets stand at about average either way.
Here is Baseball Reference’s stats for the league this season
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-standard-batting.shtml
Second: What is the success rate of a runner being bunted into scoring position scoring?
“The use of the bunt to move runners over is called FUNDAMENTALS!”
No, it’s called marriage to dogma. We’re doing this because that’s the way we always did it. Never mind if its actually effective or not.
“Too bad your more concerned with the ideas of a guy who thinks singles are half as good as HRs and you would yell at a batter for getting a hit instead of getting on by error!”
First, either you don’t get what Tango was actually saying or you are lying. I’d say its 50/50 with you
Second, I’ll take that over a guy who has trouble saying that making the playoffs is better than not making the playoffs.
“Something to do with the FREQUENCIES…”
*sigh*
“My guess is you HEAR an awful lot of frequencies in your head!
Better read that Link I may have a good excsue for you to blame it on! Got any Tin Foil Helmets lying around?”
Listen, if you refuse to discuss the subject at hand, I’m going to stop wasting my time. I’ve stated my case. There’s nothing more I can do except dismiss your silly little attempts at insults and reiterate what I’ve already said repeatedly.
Quote All the Saber Theroies you want…None of them are fact due to statistical manipulation by the person who did this “REASEARCH” in order to get the answer they wanted….You know like that research that said OBP correlated to RS better than RBI that I blew out of the water months ago?
MAYBE You should read less and THINK more and then maybe you would come up with the correct answer instead of having to spout crap others wrote that you can’t prove because what they said was plain wrong!
Whats thew frequency Kenneth?
ROFLMAO
I agree totally Joe!
It really doesn’t matter where you are in the lineup you do what is best to get the runs in. Maybe if you let Duda Hit he gets one. Or maybe he rolls over into a double play and kills the inning. It’s not like Duda is the guy who hits 40 HRs in a season after all…
The problem some people have is they tend to put more stock into their beliefs and philosophy than the reality of situational baseball. Part of winning is doing the little things and while many of the saber followers are diametrically opposed to LITTLE BALL History has shown over and over again that it does win your ballgames!
You can’t always sit around waiting for the big hit and you can’t always assume your going to get it just because of where the guy is hitting in the order.
Duda is our Clean Up Hitter but thats by default not design.
If it’s Ryan Howard maybe you let him go for the HR or Extra Base hit.
If it’s Beltran who hits for average then you let that average workd for you.
But Duda got the runners into scoring position and they eventually scored!
Which is really what the whole point of having an at bat is all about isn’t it?
well, to be fair, one of them was already in scoring position.
we exchange an out to have 2 runners in scoring position instead of 2, with duda battin a ground ball becomes very highly a DP, if only some mets players would’ve done this before instead of padding stats who knows what could’ve been of this team a few years back
Right and after the bunt, BOTH were!
With one less out to give.
And more runs on the scoreboard!
Helped us score not hindered us didn’t it?
Or do you want to try and argue that it cost us a game we won?
“And more runs on the scoreboard!”
No, just another out. Lucas Duda’s sac bunt scored exactly 0 runs.
“Helped us score not hindered us didn’t it?”
No, it decreased the chance of plating a run. In this instance, the negative is not plain to see.
“Or do you want to try and argue that it cost us a game we won?”
Of course not. I’m merely saying that it wasn’t the reason for the win.
How many score on the Sac Fly if Duda doesn’t bunt?
ANSWER ZERO! And Possibly one runner erased and TWO outs so NO RUNS scored!
Can’t argue the results!
As much as your Saberrattled mind want to believe bunting costs you runs it was not TRUE last night!
Which just goes to show how reliable those beliefs you cling to really are!
Don’t mean to hijack this thread, but I’d love to get both your opinions on the Fair or Foul. As you were.
I didn’t post one? I thought I did!
I will though I guess I got distracted and forgot to sumbit it then closed the browser…
metsie is isnt about individual results. it isnt smart to play russian roulette even if you dont die. its about playing it smart so you get more good outcomes.
Well Martin I would say it’s about doing what it takes to WIN the game!
Bunting did that!
Sure there was risk, always is!
There was just as much if not MORE risk to hit there as he could easily hit into a double play as slow as Duda is!
I think people are focusing on the “CLEAN UP” tree and missing the forrest here!
Yes if you had a REAL clean up hitter you might be less inclined to bunt there.
Duda is not a REAL clean up hitter. He profiles better as a 5 or 6 hitter tops right now. It’s only because Davis is hurt, Reyes is hurt (putting Pagan into leadoff), and Beltran got traded otherwise Duda would not have been the clean up hitter at all.
I have no problem with the argument made that you should NOT bunt with your clean up hitter. But once you put a name in there the question is drastically changed!
If the Pitcher is in the clean up spot would the fact of his batting position still mean he should hit and not bunt?
See what I mean?
Rules are fine when situation is theoretical but when the situation is defined there are exceptions to the rule!
And I think you are all forgetting the other “RULE” that exists….
You play for the TIE at home WIN on the road when behind!
Because at home you get that last lick and on the road you do not. They played for the TIE and got the WIN. They should be applauded for that regardless of what you think of how they did it!
that sitution is actually the time when a sac is called for. The real problem was jerry 9and for a time Terry) doing it in the 3rd inning with Reyes on base!
And this should not be on any player. In that sitution, the manager makes the call. if he wanted wright to bunt, send in the sign. And Duda did not do it on his own. he asked Terry if he wanted him to bunt (and said he was capable). Terry easily could have said go up and hack.
that late in the game, down by 1, the key is to get the tying run in. You can worry about the extras once you aren’t losing!
“there are those who would prefer to get rid of the sacrifice bunt altogether. Hogwash.”
That’s quite a statement. Could you provide a link or example of someone who actually said that, or is it just straw man hyperbole for the sake of setting up the post? I’m genuinely curious.
In most cases, the sacrifice bunt is a poor play. It’s overused in baseball and has been forever. That doesn’t mean there aren’t times when it is useful. It’s extremely rare, but sometimes the sac bunt is a good thing.
Last night’s example was an in-between case. I can see both the for and against sides. Of course, if he popped the bunt up and made an out we’d probably be reading a post slamming Duda for a dumb play. Such is 20/20 hindsight.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php
http://www.insidethebook.com/c09.shtml
http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=124
Just about every major supporter of Sabermetrics HATES the bunt and complains loudly when it is used…
I do mnot generalize and say all saber rattlers but on just about every Saber friendly site there is a discussion about bunting being horrible because Sabers is so sensitive to outs and nothing else.
They don’t like Sac Fly’s that score a run either!
From the Baseball Analysts site article you linked “While acknowledging it as the correct strategy in a small number of cases, ”
So there is one that acknowledges that it has its uses, even in a limited capacity.
Tango shows that position players sac bunting indeed hurts your chances of scoring runs and in effect winning the game.
Same with Wayne Winston (how far and wide did you have to look for that?).
And there is your problem. Its not some irrational “hatred” that is passed around by a bunch of people just repeating some mantra. Its backed up by the outcomes of thousands of events.
You don’t care? Fine. Then don’t make disparaging comments about people and things you clearly don’t understand.
You want to dispute it? Go right ahead. Just make sure you have the facts to go with you.
Yep Tango Tiger also says getting on base via Error is a bigger accomplisment as getting a straight up hit and almost half as good as hitting a HR!
That and a non intentional Base on Balls is less of an accomplishment for a batter as getting hit by a Pitch is….
So I guess we know just how correct and logical his thinking is don’t we?
Reaching on an error more frequently results in a run than a straight up single. If you want to dispute that, go start another rant. stop trying to derail this discussion
“and almost half as good as hitting a HR!”
no
“That and a non intentional Base on Balls is less of an accomplishment for a batter as getting hit by a Pitch is….”
again, if you think you can dispute it, start another discussion. This is about the value of the sac bunt.
“So I guess we know just how correct and logical his thinking is don’t we?”
At least he shows his work.
You bought that load of crap did you?
What does FREQUENCY of Runs Scored have to do with judging the BATTER?
It’s attributed to the batter as an accomplishment!
And if an Error will score that run so too will a hit! ANY hit!
You are just so brainwashed in stupidity it’s can’t even be argued with!
Hey I got a Bridge? You Buying?
Joe D. is right, Duda was right.
The sabermetric criticism of bunting is well taken, in my view, in the aggregate: Over the course of a season, teams sometimes bunt too often, especially early in the game. You shouldn’t give away precious outs. Over the course of a season, that will cost you.
However, there are *individual* situations in which the bunt is in order. Last night in the eighth inning was one of them. What matters is not whether the batter happens to be hitting cleanup, but whether the percentages play in favor of a bunt in light of what you’re trying to accomplish: at least tie the game.
Given that Duda is a candidate to hit into a DP, that the chances of scoring the tying run from third with one out are high, that Bay and Evans are reasonably good bets to at least hit a fly ball, and that Duda evidently is capable of putting down a decent bunt, it’s a good play.
For reference purposes: Bobby V having Edgardo Alfonzo bunt with none out and runners at first and second in the bottom of the 15th against Atlanta in Game 5 of the 1999 LCS, with the Mets down 1. Even though Alfonzo was a great hitter at the time and everyone knew the Braves would then walk John Olerud, leaving it up to Todd Pratt, it was the right move. I don’t remember everyone debating it to death.
Late in the game when you need 1 run to get the job done, the time is PERFECT for a bunt. Duda should be commended for a great job.
So of course today, Duda smashes a big double off of a real good lefty. You just can’t predict baseball, Suzyn.