I just hope that we are able to protect all the talent from rule 5 poachers and that the right choices in who to protect are made. Lagares clearly must be added to the 40 this off season and with a good 2012 could allow us to get something good out of LF as soon as 2013.

This really highlights the problem with building through the IFA market. The IFA market must be a central part of building your future teams but there is a strong possibility of losing guys to the rule 5 since they have to be put on the 40 after 5 years. Same as 18 year olds. With only 15 spots available that aren’t also on the 25 and at least eight of them needed for AAA depth you can only protect 7 slower developing prospects. It’s unreasonable to expect ALL of your 16 year old amateurs to make it up here at 21 and you certainly don’t want to sign and develop them for your competitors. Many or even most 16 year old amateurs spend most of their teen years being developed by “trainers” as opposed to playing every day. This can be good but the whole focus is on preparing the kid to be showcased so he can get a big bonus, which the “trainer” shares in. Fair enough that’s the system but it still leads to a slower development for all but the Reyes, Cabrera or Vlad’s. Teams should have 6 years to protect their foreign amateurs or the signing age should be changed to at least 17. Preferably both.

As for OFer’s Lagares was signed as a SS and that was his focus until 2009 so while I’m very excited about him I wouldn’t neccesarily mark him down as having addressed OF in future years 100%. Duda was a 1B who because of need/opportunity got a shot in LF and is now trying to nail down RF but with a serious learning curve ahead of him at 25 and without a huge abundance of RF skills cannot really be considered more than a pleasant surprise at best and not a potential 10 year starter with multiple All Star game appearnaces.

Pride a former 2nd round pick does have talent for CF but apparently not the skills to hit consistently in the Majors to get a starting job, was traded by Tampa and cut by Minn, then passed over by all AL teams and those NL teams below us in the standings before we picked him up off waivers. At 27 it doesn’t look like Pridie will be more than a 4th or 5th OFer and more likely will be AAA depth for a well conceived team. Pride (and Turner) really illustrate more than anything that 26 or 27 year old guys with 5 or so minor league seasons under their belt can actually play lot better
than a past their shelf life former All Star free agent and they stay a lot healthier too, don’t clog up your roster with useless players, hamstring your payroll and mope around the clubhouse and allow you to keep your high draft picks as well.

Kirk was a 3rd rounder out of an NAIA Division school. Lots of talent, not so much in terms of success against higher competition because he didn’t face it. Lot’s of questions about him throughout his minor league career with a common thought being whether he could stick in CF and if not, whether his bat could play in a corner. Kirk has though actually gotten better with every step up the ladder which bodes extremely well for his chances. Labrum surgery (non throwing shoulder) this July sets him back quite a bit and is a lengthy and difficult process and at 24 makes his likely debut at 26 at best and he still has K issues in AAA to get through. Great pick though just wish we had gotten him at 18 and apparently has the talent to play up here. Everyone including college’s whiffed on him.

Fern was really the only guy you can say Minaya definitively went out and secured for our OF. When your only counting on one guy this is what can and frequently does happen. Good thought process, good attempt, no complaints and at 22 who knows. Anytime I’ve seen this kid on TV or in person (in the DWL as well as here) he never fails to disappoint. The most underwhelming prospect I’ve ever seen but there is no denying his talent. He has one option year left after 2011, we probably have room on the 40 to give him one more year but after that Flores, Familia, Puello, Cordero, will have to be added so it’s not looking good, but hey it wasn’t looking good for Bautista for a long time either. I’d try to keep him up here in 2013 as a 5th OFer but he’s limited to RF and LF, doesn’t run and we might have to let him go depending on the configuration of our OF in Queens.

Javier Rodriguez 2nd rounder 2008 21 Brokklyn is showing some sort of life and could be a slow developing player but who knows. He has talent, a good effort at least by Minaya. One of only two 1st – 3rd round picks selected in the 6 years of the Minaya era in the OF (Kirk being the other)

Other OF possabilities include college sr and 5th round 2010 pick Matt Den Dekker, skills to play CF, big swing, big K rate, rushed to AA because of his age (24) will be lucky to gets his skills in line with his talent before it’s too late but could conceivably be a starter at 26.

Cory Vaughn 22 A+ 4th rounder 2010 old for his league but has a chance but a best case ETA would be to win a job in ST 2014 which would put him at 25 so no time for injury or stagnation or he won’t be able to be a long term solution in the OF. This is really the biggest problem with drafting 21 year olds. By the time they’ve broken in up here, they have the Major League learning curve to master so by the time their able to dominate (if they ever are) their physical skills only have a short period of peak years remaining. 25-31 now that the steroid era is over unless your at the top 10% of the talent curve in the Majors for position players. Just look at Werth, Figgy and Bay.

Puello is the most intriguing OFer to me. 20 years old A+ great all around tools and power is developing in a pitcher dominated league at an age young for A+. Very very good sign of possibility here and CF remains in the mix. He’ll have to get one of the spots on the 40 after 2012 or he’ll be lost for sure. Someone will use him for a year as a 5th OFer and all we’ve done is develop him for someone else.

Sean Ratliff (4th round 23 AA in 2008) lost 2011 when he was hit by a line drive in the on deck circle. Was being rushed through the system due to his age but hit good in A+ and great in AA and looked like a potential 2011 Sept call up with a good year but now his ability to play baseball is in question and college guys just don’t have the luxury of a lost season because of the age situation. Havens falls into this category as well.

Ceccilini 4th round 2010 21 A- a college guy through expierence being able to play great in the NY Penn league but already finding it difficult to progress at A-.

Flores could very well wind up in RF or LF but he should have already been learning that position or he could fight it out with Lutz (25 AAA) for 3B if Wright were to not be resigned after 2013.

Basically what happened to our OF prospects is that those guys who we drafted were all college age, safe choices to have developed the skill to be considered to make it up but the cream of their age group talent had been skimmed from the top as HS kids signing earlier, then skimmed again when some of them were drafted as Sr.’s. (most college players are drafted as jr’s and signed then unless they feel the bonus is too small and they go back to school hoping to raise it)

They weren’t projection picks since they had already competed successfully at a reasonably high level and as 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders were pretty safe bets to have a good shot to get up here but if they did it might not be for a long period of dominance, more for a Jay Paytonesque type career. Decent-good, not great and certainly not the sort of bolder HUGE hit type guy one would expect of a GM who’s primary strength was in young talent evaluation.

Of course the budget allocation and the importance placed on getting something ASAP due to the condition of the system in general were the thought process behind these picks. The difference in what a college player gets as a signing bonus vs a HS player (to forgo their scholarship) had to be the prime consideration, although for some reason we went overslot on Den Deker who had no options of any kind being a Sr.

Basically Javier Rodriguez a #2 and Fern were the two OFer that were being banked on to be here for more than 4-5 years and while it doesn’t appear to be working out they do still do have time and if we had selected more of these guys would have undoubtably hit on some that would have solved an OF position for 6-10 years but again we were playing small market in the draft and wound up counting on just two guys for 3 positions who had both the talent and the time instead of 10 guys with the talent and the time where we could have hit HUGE on at least two of them.

But, this certainly is a case of scouting over numbers, and when you are dealing with teenagers, it can take longer for them to develop.

T, WONDER IF THERE ISN’T AN UNDISCOVERED CATCHER SOMEWHERE BEING OVERLOOKED. I’M SURE IT WAS U RECENTLY LAMENTING THE INCOMPETANCY OF FAILING TO SECURE OUTFIELD & CATCHING TALENTS, I GUESS DUDA,PRIDIE,LAGARES,KIRK,F-MART SHOULD SALVE YOUR OUTFIELD ANGST; BUT PERHAPS AS TYHERE ISN’T ANY REVELATIONS ABOUT AN OVER ABUNDANCE OF PB IN STL,SAV, SDL, BINGO, SOMEONE IS PORTTRAYING BEING A BACKSTOP WITH SOME COMPETANCY. I RECALL AT LEAST 2 THAT WERE LOST DURING OMAR’S REGIME FLORES AS A RULE V & A SINGLA A CATCHER SENT TO MINN FOR CASTILLO.