Mets Prospects Updates: Valdespin, Wheeler, Satin, Familia

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• Mr North Jersey August 14, 2011 at 12:21 pm

  Familia had a little rough stretch earlier this year but I am glad to see that he has pitched well since coming of dl.

  Lagares had a nice game last night and has done well so far in AA since being called up. Den Dekker who has struggled somewhat since being called up to AA had a nice game last light too. Going 2 for 5 1/HR 3/RBI 2/R hopefully he can finish the season strong.
  • Mr North Jersey August 14, 2011 at 2:24 pm

    Here is video of Familia’s performance last night.

    http://youtu.be/iItnQ_YpnrY
• t agee August 14, 2011 at 1:03 pm

  It’s always hard to say why when a minor league pitcher struggles. Is he working on perfecting something in game situations? Trying something new? We can never know. All we can say is that Familia has a world of talent and he’s got a noticeable difference in velocity between his pitches. That gives him a great chance to be a dominant starter.

  Great sign by Minaya, Mejia too.

  If Reyes is resigned chances are very good that at some point Valdespin and Tejada share 2B next year. Another case of a position being filled with top shelf talent but Valdespin got benched for not running out GB’s in AA recently and is still doing the same in Buffalo. Doesn’t take away from the fact that he has extrodinary talent but it can take away from his effectiveness and shows that he may still need additional time to mature. If Reyes is not resigned that might take away from the time Valdespin has to mature and that might not be the best thing.

  Satin is most likely a better hitter and more versatile version of Turner being able to play 1B as well as 2B and 3B and has had an unreal OB% throughout his entire minor league career and hasn’t hit below .300 in the minors since the Sally League. Low double figures in HR’s and 80 doubles in the last two years. If he can play defense as average as Turner he’ll be a RH bat off the bench, spell Ike against some LHP and provide competition and depth at 2B and 3B. He could also form a platoon with Murphy in the event that Wright speeds up the rebuild with a COUPLE of A prospects.

  Wheeler just has to be developed with patience and purpose and not have everyone hanging over his head because he cost us the last 2 months of Carlos Beltran’s 7 year run here while we were an extreme longshot to WIN a wild card.

  Wheeler had the talent and projectability for a team known for identifying and developing pitchers to draft him 6th in the entire Country and give him a 3.3 M dollar signing bonus (SF’s not afraid to go over slot for a HS kid even with Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner in the system)

  Dick Tidrow and Dave Righetti have done a great job with the Giants pitching prospects both in identifying them and developing them. Is it possible they deemed Wheeler expendable based on other prospects (Susack) or even thought it a good idea to get off him? Possible, but I think what caused them to trade Wheeler was the night before in the Brave game when Chipper just coming back left the game with a quad and McCann with an oblique/back. I think they were afraid Atlanta would up their offer and they’d most likely be facing Beltran in the first round instead of penciling him in.

  Time will tell whether Wheeler works out and a lot of that will be based on OUR pitching coordinators, his makeup, work ethic, health. All we can say for sure is the thought process behind his acquisition was correct.

  The chance of adding a #2 starting pitcher and having him here, in his prime, for 6-10 years is far more beneficial than keeping Carlos for the last two months of his contract for a long shot chance at a Wild Card for one.
  • Petey Pete August 14, 2011 at 1:37 pm

    Awesome post agee, I think you hit the nail on the head about the Atlanta injuries causing the Giants to throw Wheeler on the table. Look whether Wheeler does make it or not, bringing a 21 year old power arm, with a ton of upside into the system could never be a bad thing. I would like to see SA get more of these types of players.
    The things I’ve heard about Satin’s fielding, have not been flattering. Where Turner plays reckless, and is a little out-of-control sometimes, he will get to balls that Satin will not. The best quote I read about Satin’s defense is “he looks like he’s playing in quicksand”.
    Whether because of injury or just plain sucking, there have been many big disappointments that we have had to endure with our young prospects this year: Mejia, Carson, Kyle Allen, Holt, Boof Bonser (just kidding), Reese Havens, Aderlin Rodriguez, Captain Kirk, Steven Matz, Scott Moviel, Juan Urbina, Mark Cohoon, Josh Stinson, Zach Lutz, Matt Den Dekker, Cesar Puello, Francisco Pena, Eric Niesen, Darrel Ceciliani, Blake Forsythe, and of course the perennial “poster child” for disappointments, FMart. I am ok with this though, because of one thing…..Jeurys Familia. That guy is coming fast! By this time next season, he could be getting ready to explode onto the scene, and I do mean explode.
    • t agee August 14, 2011 at 3:04 pm

      Thanks Pete. And it only stands to reason that Satin’s defense is so poor since clearly his ability to hit for average and doubles and get OB at a very high clip is impressive. There had to be something keeping him back especially at his advanced age. 26, it’s now or never. It really is amazing how our 5th – 13th round draft choices can make it through the minors and come up here only able to play on one side of the ball and yet we can can never spend a #1, #2 or #3 pick on a well rounded position player except for maybe once every seven years or so.

      I couldn’t agree more with you about the disappointing results of most of our prospects. Mejia and Kirk’s injuries really hurt the composition of next years roster. TJ and Labrum surgeries take about a year. Reece, the new Fern? Well at least he’s producing when he is on the field but so did Fern for a while.

      Corderro rebounding from a terrible first half is huge though and Gorski breaking out is big as is Lagares and Puello and Flores are still young for their age in A+ and Maron and Glenn along with Garcia (IFA) gives us a chance at catcher down the road although it’s a long way off. To me Urbina’s the biggest disappointment especially while repeating at Kingsport. Den Dekker is another guy like Satin, running out of time. If he’s gonna make his mark it has to be soon hence the promotion even with a huge K rate. The best comp I can come up with for him is Ryan Church. Tools, CF capable, arm, doubles some HR’s, can run but that long swing………

      Another guy who’s running out of time is Ratliff and that’s a real shame and Matz hasn’t even thrown a pitch yet. Aderlain’s a DH, wasn’t expecting much from Carson, Allen, Stinson, Moviel, Pena or Niessen but it would have been nice to have a surprise or two.

      Like you I can’t wait for Familia and Harvey. Back end of 2013? Hope so.
• sarge August 14, 2011 at 1:18 pm

  My only question about Valdespin is how is his arm, range, fielding?

  He might be a good hitter but SS is a position that requires certain skills and is the cement for the infield, we don’t want another Tejada, apart from the hitting, who cost pitchers games on errors.
  • Donal August 15, 2011 at 9:28 am

    Arm is decent, but I’ve heard the term “lead glove” used more than once. Then again, it’s been a while, so that may have improved.
• Metsie August 14, 2011 at 1:54 pm

  Well they all must suck since Minaya got them and he was the worst GM in baseball history…Just ask the folks around here!

  LOL
  • t agee August 14, 2011 at 3:43 pm

    Now Metsie I’ve been very complimentary of Minaya’s IFA’s from which two of the four prospects in this story were about. The player Minaya drafted that was a part of this story is Josh Satin, 26 just promoted to AAA last week and apparently his best attribute on defense is his versatility, but then aren’t all of Minaya’s draftees like that? Satin is one more guy, taken in the 6th, 7th or 13th round out of college, has experience at 1B, 2B and 3B but not really the talent to play either full time.

    We have so many of these types. They come up through a weak farm system because they can play part of the game well to play in the Majors, but not all of it.

    Evans 5th round 1B/3B/LF/RF, Murphy 13th round 3B/2B/1B/LF, Duda 7th round 1B/LF/RF, Turner 7th round 2B/3B, Now Satin 6th round 1B/2B/3B. Even our catcher 13th round spent two minor league seasons learning first base and if that wasn’t enough we had to go and trade two #1 picks for yet another 1B/LF guy in Chris Carter.

    With plenty of proof right in front of our faces that 1st and 2nd round draft choices and international amateurs are the players that have well rounded games (like Reyes, Wright, Davis, Beltran) and even some 4th round picks like Pagan at least have the talent overall to excel in every area on the field we have for 14 years gone after the college slot selection position player who for some weird reason must have 1B listed on their resume.

    Relief pitchers who don’t require as much individual athleticism as position players do in order to perform their jobs constantly get drafted in the supplemental, 2nd or 3rd round and we fork over multiple draft choices and prospects through the years for closers yet no early round draft choices for the OF or catcher.

    Half the everyday starting line up! Forgotten about. Glossed over. Deemed unworthy of even so much as a 2nd round draft choice. Relegated behind setup men, Loogy’s, Roogy’s and other assorted specialists and freaks on call in CF.

    Just in the last 6 years alone a #1 spent on 1B even with all these part 1B types coursing through all levels of the minors and a 2B man (finally) Hasn’t worked out with him yet if ever but at least it was a reasonable attempt. Only one 2nd rounder and one 3rd rounder for all three OF spots in the last 6 years? One #3 for a catcher? One #3 for a SS? That’s the best we can do for our starting eight?

    That’s how all these 1B/LF/2B/3B/RF/DH types make it up through the system.

    The 4th subject of the article was acquired by trade by the new administration.
    • Metsie August 14, 2011 at 7:34 pm

      Does it matter WHERE he gets them or isn’t it enough that he DOES GET THEM!

      Did it ever occurr to you that he had to find them via IFA because from 2005-2007 he was competing for a playoff and didn’t draft high enough to get at the really good ones that get listed on Baseball America’s Bible to trashing Omar Minaya?

      You have complained that he only got 6 OFs in 14 drafts. How many is the right number to get? How Many when you have Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran signed long term (or at least until your contract would have run out of not fired)?

      How many FA did McIlvane sign made baseball America’s list? How well did Generation K do? Hopw many HOF or MVPs did he draft? How many times did he go overslot?

      You bitch about all these things when Minaya is the guy and when it comes to McIlvane you blame the owners…

      Convenient to say the least!

      Like I keep saying to all those who trash Minaya and his draft and aquisition ability…Why are you not counting the guys who he picked that are hitting HRs for us and driving in runners, Making plays on the field, placing third in the batting title or the guy who is leading who Omar ALSO was influential in getting signed IFA?

      He isn’t even a QUARTER as bad as you guys try to make him out to be.
      All he did was spend a lot of Wilpons Money to compete while he was getting all those guys!
      And you constantly make him out to be the DEVIL!
      • t agee August 14, 2011 at 10:45 pm

        Metsie, Minaya only drafted two OFers with a top three pick in 6 years. Javier Rodriguez, 2nd round and Kirk Niewenhauss a 3rd rounder. Just two OFers in 6 years. Zero #1′s. In a park that calls for speedy athletic OFers.

        Fair enough he signed Fern and Puello and the farm director moved Lagares from SS to LF but he spent more and better draft choices on Beltran, Bay and Alou. No complaints on Beltran (#3) but Bay (#2)and Alou (#1)? How long were those guys supposed to produce for us?

        Alou couldn’t be expected to last more than 2 years and Bay at most 4. Of course that’s not the way it worked out and it wasn’t completely unpredictable either.
        • Metsie August 14, 2011 at 10:48 pm

          How many OFer SHOULD he have dr
          • Metsie August 14, 2011 at 10:50 pm

            Sorry and there is no edit…How many OFers should he have drafted?
            When you have Beltran Pagan and Bay plus Duda FMart Newenhuis and Pridie….

            How many draft picks should be wasted on a position you seem to have a logjam at especially if you include Murphy playing there since thats the only place left to put him?
            • t agee August 14, 2011 at 11:09 pm

              Metsie Beltran’s deal ran out in 2011. That was no suprise to anyone. Bay wasn’t even here until last year. Pagan was considered a 4th OFer, not a starter (remember GMJ got the starting gig in 2010?) Duda was playing mostly 1B and is at most a LFer. Niewenhauss was never considered anything close to a sure bet. Pridie was a waiver wire acquisition in 2010 and was hurt all year. Murphy never even played a proffesional game in the OF until 2008. Fern would have been a guy you were counting on but you really can’t count on just one guy. That’s a loser’s game. That’s whats gotten us into this mess. Counting on just one guy for every position.

              The only guys you can really talk about are Beltran and Fern. That’s it. One who projected to at best be here in 2009 and one guy who was sure to be gone in 2011. After that perhaps you could hope on Puello in 2013 and that’s it. Not enough. Not even close to enough. And catcher? Please. Why no high draft choices spent on catchers?

              The NYY spent a #2 and a #3 on catchers in recent years 2007 and 2009. They also signed 3 IFA catchers in 2002, 2006 and 2009 and this is while they actually HAD a catcher. We’ve had nothing but vagabonds at that position for the last six years.
              • Metsie August 14, 2011 at 11:39 pm

                “Metsie Beltran’s deal ran out in 2011.”

                And odd isn’t it odd thats just a year shy of where Duda, Neuenhuis and FMart were supposed to be ready to call up?

                He signed Bay because he though Beltran was not going to have an operation and miss the season!
                If he knew beltran was going to be out as long as he was I bet he would not have signed him…And he DID sign him because EVERY SINGLE BEAT WRITER of EVERY PAPER and SPORTS CHANNEL said he needed to sign him or they would not compete!

                Was it a mistake? Probably but if Beltran were around when he first got here maybe he would have spent less time with Wright talking about those fences everyone keeps complaining about and put get them into his head as well!
                • t agee August 15, 2011 at 12:25 am

                  Metsie Bay was a singles hitter when he arrived here, no amount of revisionist history is going to change that. No amount of **** in his head, conversations with other players or anything else is going to change that.

                  The Mets got the memo about steroid testing just like everyone else. 29 teams got younger one got older.

                  If Minaya was letting the media and press tell him how to run his team then shame on him but I don’t believe that for one second.

                  Omar is a very likeable guy. Wants to be liked. Wants to please everyone. Make everyone happy. would make a great friend, great neighbor but a ****ty GM because to be a good GM you have to sometimes make the unpopular move. The decision that gets people up in arms, mad, angry, wants you fired. Like the Beltran trade.

                  Omar doesn’t have that “everyone is mad at me” type move in him. It’s not his style even when it’s necessary.

                  Tell us, what “everyone is mad at me” deal did Minaya ever make for the long term health of the franchise at the expense of even just a small part of the present?

                  None. He never made any. He always put everything into this year and hoped that they would pull it off.

                  Jason Bay was just the last double down before he flat out busted. One last chance to make everyone happy.
          • t agee August 14, 2011 at 10:55 pm

            He should have spent the draft picks he spent on relievers on the OF and catcher and vice versa.

            Three OFers and a catcher impact 5200 innings every year. Relief pitchers influence about 50 innings each.

            So basically 2 #1 picks, 1 supplemental, two second rounders and three 3rd rounders on OFers and catchers and just one 2nd rounder and one third rounder on relievers would have been a far more proper ratio depending on the talent at respective positions obviously.

            2007 it was clear he purposely targeted relief pitchers and that is just such a flawed philosophy.
            • Metsie August 14, 2011 at 11:29 pm

              “2007 it was clear he purposely targeted relief pitchers and that is just such a flawed philosophy.”

              Dude have you been following our Bullpen lately?

              I get what your saying but WHAT you draft has a lot more to do with what IS THERE when you pick and the best you can get regardless of what position he plays.

              If the best player when you get on the board is NOT an OFer but a good Bullpen arm you take whatever is the best available.
              And when you are playing for a playoff every year and pick way down the bottom half of the draft that BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE usually isn’t very good no matter WHO you get!

              They are all WIPs after pick 17 Of have something that has caused other teams to pass them by. RARE is the draft where there is Talent all throughout the 1st round. Which is what I tried to get accross to you with the Phillie’s selection of Ryan Howard.
              He got passed over 6 times by the league and the Phillies just took the best WIP that was there when they picked. They got lucky.

              Omar was NEVER lucky thats about all you could say.
              FMart being hurt more than he played, All his bought and paid for “holdems until his picks could develop” got hurt too.

              But he did get some pretty good players. Davis could be All Star if he doesn’t have his foot amputated before he sees a baseball field, Turner has shown clutch ability and if he can maintain it would be a very good player. Murphy was third in the Batting race until he got hurt.

              Pelfrey is a head case but he’s no Ollie perez when hes on the mound. Niese is probably our best Pitcher! Gee 2nd best if he maintains and grows just a bit.

              I will be right behind you if all those guys turn into scrubs in the next two years but as of right now they are playing good baseball and would seem to be very solid and good players and aquisition…no matter HOW they got them, How is not as important as HAVING!

              Phillies drafted 4 guys in the course of 5 years. and one (Howard) was a lucky drop in lap that no one predicted or expected.

              They had to go out and get Victorino and Werth who they didn’t draft. All of their pitching save Hamels is UN DRAFTED in fact they passed over Halladay for someone else when he was available on draft day!

              Stop worrying so much about where he got what he got…Omar should be judged by WHO he got not how he got it!
              And so far he got pretty good from the looks of all the rookies who have come up to play!
              • t agee August 15, 2011 at 12:45 am

                We’re talking about drafting relief pitchers. That’s stupid. Hey maybe if you have two guys playing RF busting it up in AAA and AA, two more CFers doing the same and two more LFers the same again and three catchers killing it in AAA, AA and A+ but we didn’t have that. If we did have that we wouldn’t have had to go sign Bay.

                Now we’re stuck with him for another couple of years and we’re hopeing a 1st basemen can play RF. Pagan can regroup. Fern can ditch his walker, We have a AAA CFer rehabbing from labrum surgery, no easy task. A back up CFer given up on by Tampa Bay and cut by Minnesota who then passed through the entire AL without being claimed and all the teams below us in the NL standings last year.

                Yeah we COULD have Lagares ready by 2013. Possibly Den Dekker too, maybe even Puello, who knows possibly Vaughn as well but those guys weren’t even on the horizon until this year. Den Dekker and Vaughn weren’t even drafted until 2010. Lagares was a SS until 2009 and Puello was in Brooklyn last year. And I’ll tell you another thing. We still have no decent catcher above Savannah (A-) and if you think all four of those guys are make it up here I’ve got news for you.

                And in case you need reminding none of the five 2007 relief pitchers will ever throw a pitch in the Major leagues. Not one of them. In fact the only relief pitcher Minaya drafted who will is the one he traded away for JJ Putz.
            • t agee August 14, 2011 at 11:35 pm

              Position players also are more “sure” prospects in an admittedly unsure business. Pitchers have far higher bust ratios due to injury and development in the minors and upside kind of goes in inverse position of risk.

              HS pitchers have the highest upside and the highest risk, next come HS hitters, followed by College pitchers, followed by college hitters but the thing about about college hitters is that many of them get to the Majors at 25, have a 2 year learning curve before hitting their stride so they have a short prime. HS hitters get here about 23 and are up to full speed at 25-31. A longer prime and they play better D and run the bases better while their in their prime. Overall.
  • Pat August 15, 2011 at 7:28 am

    Are you a 12 year old and doe your parents know you are on the internet?

    I love these posts, coming from the same team of people blasting a GM that hasn’t had the post for an entire year, that had a tight budget do to money wasted by the previous administration and the money woo’s of the owner.
  • Pat August 15, 2011 at 7:29 am

    Are you a 12 year old and do your parents know you are on the internet?

    I love these posts, coming from the same team of people blasting a GM that hasn’t had the post for an entire year, that had a tight budget do to money wasted by the previous administration and the money woo’s of the owner.
• t agee August 14, 2011 at 10:25 pm

  Very dramatic Metsie. Really? The devil? That’s over the top even for you.

  This is why how a player is acquired matters. In the draft there are a finite amount of picks available, in the IFA market any team could sign the ten best players. No restrictions.

  In order to compete year after year you have to provide talent into your system. Develop it properly in order to sustain yourself five to fifteen years down the road.

  One great way is through international free agency but while that method can provide a huge dividend down the road, it’s much more difficult to project 16 year olds than it is 18-22 year olds. It also takes a couple years longer to develop 16 year olds.

  The draft however offers enormous opportunity too though however with just one pick for every 30 players taken it’s hard to accrue a large number of top talent prospects in any one year. Few prospects are sure things even at 18-22, you simply have to make the most with your top picks and then go high end HS over slot selections in order to nab as many future 1st, 2nd and third round picks as possible and convince them to start their pro career at 18, not 21. That’s the only way to build up a talented farm system that will sustain your Major League team.

  The two methods of prospect procurement done together, at the same time, in conjunction with one another.

  It’s really not a huge secret but the best players available in the draft usually go first. Sure some players slip due to signability questions but those guys that slide present a huge opportunity for a big market club. Going over slot in the first round frequently means an extra $500,000. Going over in the 2nd round could mean just an extra $100,000. That’s cab fare for the NY Mets.

  But this is the thing. You have to actually have the draft picks in order to select these guys. If you’ve given them away you cannot draft anyone. You cannot add that talent to your system and that’s what causes us to play shorthanded every year.

  People always say that prospects aren’t sure things but we can say the same about free agents and so can every other team. Werth, Figgins, Pavano, no different than Coleman, Alou or Bay. Their all a short term fix for a long term problem and cost you not only in wins today, but in wins 5-15 years from now.

  The most productive future Major leaguers with the lowest bust rates and highest potential are the first 100 players drafted, not to say that a guy drafted 150th, 250th or 700th couldn’t produce, contribute or even become a superstar but the odds are considerably in favor of the first 100 both in terms of actually making the Majors, and in How BIG they make it.

  Look at the first three picks of the Minaya era each year. All we have left from the 2005 draft is Pelfrey, and because of the Beltran trade Wheeler. 2006 all we have left is a small part of acquiring Santana (Mulvey 2nd rnd.) 2007? Realistically nothing.

  Maybe if Dykstra who we got for Kunz ever does anything or we can exchange him for something we might get something out of that draft but I wouldn’t hold my breath and you can say the same thing about our 1st 2nd and 3rd round picks from 2002-2004. All we have left from those drafts is another part of Santana (Humber 2001 #1) That’s it.

  So basically if we hadn’t traded Beltran for Wheeler and if for some reason Santana doesn’t make it back from injury we have absolutely nothing from the top 3 rounds of the 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 drafts going into 2012 except Pelfrey. Exactly the drafts that should have been providing our core for 2012-2016. You can’t make up for that by signing another Jason Bay or Roger Cedeno and yet that’s what we’ve been trying to do.

  In fact from the top 3 rounds of our drafts from 1999 – 2007 we are getting contributions from just 4 players and now because of the Beltran trade one prospect. Only Pagan, Wright, Pelfrey and a couple of the pieces of Santana (Humber a #1, and Mulvey a #2) are even still in our organization. The rest are all gone. Frittered away on free agents who left nothing behind when they went, busts, ect.

  Nine years of drafts. Four players and one prospect.

  The 2007 draft provided a fantastic opportunity. Our #1, two supplemental picks (Bradford Hernandez) two 2nd rounders and two third rounders. We went looking for bullpen help for 2009 and gave away our #1 pick on top of it. Braves got Heyward and Freeman. Marlins got Dominguez and Stanton. Nat’s got Jordan Zimmerman. Phillies got catcher Travis D’Anaurd who was a big part of Roy Halliday and is killing it it AAA at a position of dire need for us. Hell even the NYY who picked 30th got a highly regarded catcher in the 2nd round who is at the very least a capable defender or a great trade chip.

  Now we had no shot at Dominguez or Heyward but we easily could have taken any or all of the others. No one expects to hit big on every top 3 round pick but just imagine if we had. Mike Stanton in RF, Freddie Freeman at 1B, Travis D’Anaurd at C in AAA and Jordan Zimmerman in the rotation. Could have happened. Three of those guys went in the 2nd round and one in the supplemental. For the first time in years we had 7 picks in the first three rounds and we spent six of them addressing the bullpen two years from now and they all busted. Now we’ll have to face those guys every year for the next six years at least.

  For the first time in who knows how long we had 7 picks in the first 3 rounds and everyone else in our Division got better. A lot better.

  Roughly two years later we sold the two #1 draft picks that Wagner would have left behind for one year of a DH.

  This has nothing to do with believing in your team, nothing to do with who the GM is or was, it has everything to do with a fundamentally flawed business practice that has consistently returned far less than promised.

  That’s why it matters.
  • Metsie August 14, 2011 at 10:48 pm

    Finite amount of talent as well…
    And when your are in a playoff race for three years straight damn little chance at getting near any of it!
    • t agee August 14, 2011 at 10:58 pm

      But Metsie that is untrue. Plenty of talent gets selected in the supplemental round which occurs after everyone has already picked in the first round. Plenty more gets selected in the 2nd and 3rd round as well. You just need to keep your picks, then you can select some of it.
      • Metsie August 14, 2011 at 11:35 pm

        Plenty of CRAP too!
        Sometime trading away a lottery ticket who more than likely will be crap to get something you need now is worth it.

        And if your a GM who keeps his hand on the pulse of the scouting like Omar did you would know when the draft is weak and not much is there that you can be sure to get so trade away the maybe for a sure thing.

        If I gave you a lottery ticket but then said you can have that lottery ticket OR you can have $50 you would be dumb to take the lottery ticket considering the odds.

        Well the odds of stumbling onto a guy who is going to make a difference in supplemental 2nd and 3rd and 4th rounds the odds are MONUMENTAL!

        They are all WIPs with some tragic flaw or shortcoming that needs to be fixed and might NEVER be if the player isn’t with it!

        He was in a playoff race. He was trying to win a WS in much the same way Phillies have recently, But they gave up those picks in direct trades, he gave his away to sign FA which means he actually got to PICK who he wanted without giving away his best players…Just his best MAYBES!
        • t agee August 14, 2011 at 11:47 pm

          Metsie we are at an impasse that will never be resolved. I can give you millions of examples of good/very good and even great players selected in the supplemental round, 2nd round or 3rd round every year.

          Sure you make a valid point. Some drafts are better than others. It also makes sense if possible to sign a FA when your 1st round pick is protected and even consider signing another FA that year since you’ll just have to give up a #3 for that guy. Like Minaya did in 2005 with pedro and Beltran.

          This is the problem though, for 14 years we’ve given up over a pick a year and most of the guys we signed retired or got cut or traded for salary relief leaving us with nothing going forward.

          Having your choice of those players who get to free agency isn’t really like having lots of options anyway. More like a lack of options.

          All you can do is wait and see who makes it to free agency. The Braves or Phillies can talk to anyone, about anyone, because they have, or had the farm. there were no limitations. Every player in the majors was an option cause they had the goods. We were the one’s limited to only being able to talk to free agents. They could talk to free agents or other teams about anyone.
          • t agee August 15, 2011 at 12:01 am

            Here, I’ll give you an example from 2002 that is still costing us to this day. Steve Phillips decided to give up our 2nd round pick in order to sign David weathers to a 2 year contract prior to the 2002 season. This was no doubt caused by us having a lack of in house options for the bullpen.

            After the pick we gave up there were numerous good or very good players drafted. One of whom was Jon Lester. Another was Brian McCann.

            Now who can rightly say that the best strategy would be to sign David Weathers for two years at the expense of possibly drafting Jon Lester or Brian McCann and having one of them for six years or more?

            See here was a decision made 9 years ago that’s still paying dividends for boston and Atlanta and yet all we got out of Weathers was “salary relief” a year and and a half after we gave up the pick.

            We also got “salary relief” for our 3rd round pick as well, Roger Cedeno.

            Please explain to me which strategy seems to be more effective?
            • t agee August 15, 2011 at 12:11 am

              think Jon Lester or Brian McCann wouldn’t have made a couple games difference in 2007 or 2008? Over the contribution that David Weathers made? He was gone in 2003. Lester and McCann were just starting their Major League careers.