26
2011
If You Could Do It All Over Again: Jason Bay or Matt Holliday?
An article by 
When the 2009 season ended amid all that drama and all those injuries it left such a terrible taste in my mouth. We were predicted by many to be the World Series favorites that season, but nobody saw the disaster that was lurking around the bend.
One of Omar Minaya’s favorite pastimes when he was GM, was to ease our pain every offseason with a big-splash signing. Although the good feelings and overall impact of these headline-grabbers were almost always very short-lived, we had all become accustomed to the Omar Minaya press conferences complete with fanfare during the Hot Stove season.
After the debacle of installing Daniel Murphy as the everyday left fielder in 2009, coupled with the loss of cleanup hitter Carlos Delgado on top of that, it was no surprise what the Mets plan was for the 2009 offseason; get a power hitting leftfielder.
The choice the Mets had was to go after Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, those were the two that made the most sense, although one of them made a lot more sense than the other.
Holliday had Scott Boras representing him so right away you knew you were going to pay the ultimate price, but in return you were also getting the far more superior player. Still, there were plenty of teams that wanted him and if he was to remain a Cardinal, St. Louis would have to basically blow every other offer out of the water. They did.
Bay on the other hand, would come a lot cheaper mostly because he basically had only two other teams considering him; the Red Sox who were unwilling to offer more than two guaranteed years, and the Mariners who ultimately decided to go with Milton Bradley.
It was clear right from the start that Bay did not want to come to Flushing. He even went back to Boston hours before agreeing to sign with the Mets, to plead for the offer he originally turned down, but the Red Sox were no longer interested and told his agent that the deal was off the table. Still, Bay played hardball with the Mets who were now competing against themselves for his services. The result was a 4-year $66 million dollar deal with a 5th year vesting option that will come to haunt this franchise in 2014. Basically this is a five-year deal under the guise of a four-year deal.
The Mets were never serious players for Jason Bay despite what some may have reported at the time. Sure there was the obligatory calls to Boras and the subject of Holliday certainly came up, but basically it was to discuss his other clients that played for the team like Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and Carlos Beltran.
Until Matt Holliday signed his big deal to remain with the Cardinals, I hung onto the slim hope that the Mets would land him. I just felt he was so vastly superior to Bay in so many aspects of his game that it would be worth it to give him the extra years to get a deal done. But that’s water under the bridge now, because the Mets were simply not that interested. So Jason Bay it was.
We’ve now had two season to consider both of these players and their contracts. I wonder if all those fans who were so opposed to giving Holliday that commitment, have had a change of heart?
Would you rather have three more years of Jason Bay right now, or five more years of Matt Holliday?
The differences between the two deals has always been the length of the deal because basically they are making the same average annual salary.
Bay will be 33 after this season, while Holliday ends the season at 31. Not much of a difference there, but when you consider that both players will be 36 after there deals conclude it does give you something to think about. It doesn’t make the Holliday deal look as bad as the Bay deal in terms of what age they were each signed through.
So they both get deals that took them through their 36th birthdays, and they both were making about the same average annual salary. There’s more…
If you look at the details of the Holliday deal, the Cardinals are deferring $2 million annually from Holliday’s salary until 2020. Without interest. That means Holliday is making less than what Bay is getting. Far less when you consider he is not even accruing any interest on the deferred portion.
I don’t believe I have to get in too deep as far as comparing these two players statistically over the last two years, but here’s the basics.
Matt Holliday – .310/.399/.540 in 967 AB with 76 2B, 47 HR and 170 RBI – 123 BB/168 K
Jason Bay – .245/.332/.371 in 717 AB with 31 2B, 17 HR and 90 RBI – 90 BB/182 K
Bay’s OPS this season is a woeful .659, while Holliday is nearly 300 points higher checking in with a .950 OPS this season.
There still a few years before we can render a final verdict on these two deals, but I’m pretty sure that the Cardinals will still be laughing all the way to the bank when all is said and done. The Mets on the other hand, will have to figure out a way to win despite that black hole in left field that makes more than any other psotition player on the team.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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with no injuries to reyes, santana and beltran with matt holliday having the same season he had in 2010, i’d say HOLLIDAY all day.. with that being said, had we have signed matt holliday and with the financial situation the wilpons he might’ve been traded or been on the trading block.. so is kind of a lose/lose situation..
btw, jason bay sucks, enough already, i don’t care how “professional” he is, that guy is just the worst.. ppl here (INCLUDING ME) were killing cora for his 2 million a year contract just for being a leader and professional, this guy should be run out of town at the money he’s making..
btw, what i meant is that with no injuries and holliday having the season he had, we would’ve been WORLD SERIES CONTENDER.. imo
I never really understood why, but there was definitely a large contingent of Mets fans that simply hated Cora, Francoeur and Barajas. Many of them have not reacted in kind against Bay, Hairston or even Harris. I think it was all centered around OBP, but then why no outrage for Bay who makes three times more than Francoeur did? Or Hairston who makes as much as Barajas did who by the way played a more demanding position. Or Harris who is worse than Cora was? The Mets would be a better team if they had all three of them instead of Bay, Harris, Hairston.
i tell you why..sandy alderson.. the legion of his fans here give him and pass on EVERYTHING he’s done this season. harris and hairston were as terrible pick ups as cora and barajas for us last year, but alderson’s legion of fan would not say anything.. they are very inconsistent, everything omar did from 2009 up until last year was hated, mind you i did not like omar the gm, hated him as a gm, but even the minor moves he did was criticized, yet alderson’s moves who imo have been the worst offseason EVER by a met Gm get a pass..
What does Jason Bay have to do with Sandy Alderson?
I think you’re not looking enough. There’s plenty of criticism of Harris, Bay and others at a lot of places. And a lot of the anger at Frenchy is about wasted potential and saying some dumb things.
Of course, there isn’t as much criticism towards Alderson as Minaya because of the different circumstances and expectations.
“The Mets would be a better team if they had all three of them instead of Bay, Harris, Hairston.”
Barajas is a catcher. None of the guys you mistakenly claim don’t get criticized are catchers. Paulino and Thole would be better comps to Barajas.
You know yesterday on WFAN Minaya said he NEVER had a problem spending $ under the Wilpon’s. He said he was given every resource he requested to go out and spend money to bring players here.
Now, A) I don’t believe him. But, I think to a certain degree you can use this as a comparison for Alderson. We all KNOW the Mets were MORE willing to spend spend spend with Omar (of course they had some reservations ie Manny) but then the whole financial mess happened and now Sandy doesn’t have that freedom that Omar had.
Which still makes me wonder why people get on Sandy and compare him to Omar when its CLEAR Omar is saying he had a financial advantage that Alderson simply does not have right now.
they are 2 totally different circumstances.
so you believe everything that Sandy says, but not Omar?
Okay.
bayonne, that’s a shocker
Or, during the majority of Minaya’s tenure his owners weren’t implicated in a ponzi scheme and being sued for a billion dollars after they themselves lost hundreds of millions of dollars and when Alderson was hired hey were in the midde of all of that?
I don’t remember Alderson telling anybody what he had or did not have to spend, do you?
So in this case, I’ll go with logic.
you’re just interpreting it in your own way and you’re doing the same thing to Joe D as you always do – spin things around
You didn’t answer the question at all. The logic comment is just your opinion.
I’ll try just one more time
so you believe everything that Sandy says……..but not Omar?
Okay.
I didn’t answer what question? The question of who would I rather have? At 12:32 pm I did. Keep scrolling.
And again you’re telling me I am spinning but you’re putting words in my mouth.
Do you deny that the Mets financial situation from 2005-2010 was different than what it is in 2011?
Wouldn’t logic dictate that if Omar says he was never turned away to spend $ that this was because his owners weren’t in a financial mess/lawsuit and that Alderson’s financial flexibility was and is hindered until this mess gets sorted out? Why are we pretending like everything is copesetic in the financial world of the Wilpon’s?
And I don’t believe Omar had an open checkbook because I listened to the whole interview. He’s not gonna throw the Wilpon’s under the bus. Don’t we all believe the Wilpon’s didn’t want Manny here and Omar did? So wouldn’t that prove that he had SOME things he couldn’t do?
I’m saying if Minaya had 100 to spend he was allowed to spend all 100 but some things the Wilpon’s wanted to be involved with like Manny.
Now I can’t say they have as much to spend and I can’t say they’ve given Alderson the flexibility they gave Omar.
i knew you were gonna defend alderson with teeth and nails. bro, he had a TERRIBLE OFFSEASON, enough of defending him and kissing his ass, had he won this year i am sure you and others would’ve already claiming him as a godsend, hell, you already do and he hasn’t done squat, but, since he had that terrible offseason, horrendous july trades, then is omar’s fault we’re in this situation, go figure, just like that article i keep posting here about what that executive houdini said “if they win, alderson is great, if they lose is omar’s fault”…
financial situation is one thing, kissing his ass is a whole nother topic, which is my issue with some of you who are pegging him to be some sort of savior, geniuos, as he’d do wrong no matter what he does..
stop kissing ass and admit the man had A TERRIBLE offseason.. can he do better next year? yes, but that remains to be seen..
DO YOU JESSEP HAD ANY IDEA HOW MUCH MONEY HE COULD’VE SPEND?? were you inb the meetings or something? yo udon’t know if he chose to go on that route himself to save even more $ to the wilpons?? don’t assume things you don’t know bro.. think of this, for .5 million more we could’ve had harang instead of chris young. imagine that
Alex, why do you and bayonne and others who look to find every negative angle to every story pretend like the Mets financial situation in the Winter of 2011 mirrored the financial situation Minaya had? And why do you pretend like it doesn’t have a significant impact on what Alderson can and cannot do as a GM?
I’m not HAPPY the Mets are in a financial mess, but I’m not gonna close my eyes, cover my ears and shake my head back and forth and pretend it’s not happening….
Alex: When have I ever said he was a genius? C’mon.
by the way, go show me a better way to spend the $ he spent please. You have no idea exactly how much he had to spend do you? So go get me a team and spend as much as he did.
Also how come from April-July nobody was complaining about beato, paulino, capuano, izzy etc.? Seems pretty convenient that now at the end of august you say he did a terrible job when you were saying in July that this team had a chance to win a playoff spot. Do their contributions not count?
unbelievable
I never “hated” Cora, Frenchy or Barajas. But I think the comparison you make is a whiff and here’s why
A) Bay was an Omar signing so he has nothing to do with Alderson as my friend below mentions
B) Hairston/Harris are not in starting roles. Barajas and Frenchy were. If you’re telling me the Mets have a legit starting C and RF and Barajas and Frenchy are backups then I have no problem with them.
So they play different roles and with each role comes expectations.
I didnt compare the circumstances to Omar and Alderson? I dont know why some of these comments are directed at me? I simply said that when Francoeur, Cora and Barjas were here, a large contingent of mets fans hated them, I think partly due to their OBP. Believe me I know, I have 1000 comments to back it up. I’m just curious why Harris, Hairston and Bay are not being treated the same way as the other three. Dont know why you’re implicating me in a Omar vs Alderson twist, that’s not what this post or my comment was about.
Also my comparison was Bay to Frenchy both starting roles, Harris to Cora, and Hariston to Barajas based purely on offense and similar salary. That is my line in the sand, we can mix and match everything to stray away from my point which is that the three players I mentioned got torched when they were Mets and the three I compared them to have not been. That’s all. That was all I tried to say.
is funny, OMAR MINAYA was killed here by me and others for those addition you mention, yet i do the same with alderson because of his HORRIBLE OFFSEASON, yet i get called a fooled, uneducated, or to go and learn the eng-lish language…
I’ll try the comparison re: popularity (or lack thereof) between Hairston and Barajas.
Barajas was well liked at beginning of season b/c he was a capable player who hit well. Then he slumpd; think he gott off to quick power start w/ 10 HRs, then died.
Hairston sucked royally at first, and really was hated (bet you’ve got 1000 quotes from April and May testifying to that). Then Hairy Hairston got better. Blasted a few clutch homers, just started hitting better in general. Hence hard to hate his guts now.
My $0.02 cents
Joe: RE the Sandy/Omar comment
“as my friend below mentions”
AKA Alex? Wasn’t directed at you.
Okay, you hit the wrong reply button and it got emailed to me as a reply to me. Carry on.
haha no worries. hey check your e-mail. I sent you something
ohh god..
Can we just take a moment to acknowledge the true ridiculousness of the dislike button now?
I post “haha no worries. hey check your e-mail. I sent you something”
What kind of person ACTUALLY takes the time to care enough to hit dislike? Wow.
LMAO!!! WELCOME TO MMO, check and see how ppl dislike my comments yet joe D says the same thing and he gets thumbs up!!
btw, i don’t care whether my post are liked or dislike, i am just stating the obvious, i can handle it.. unlike mr jesseP who seems to let the “dislike” button affect him..
you and donal should look at ech other first, i dislike most of your comments..
I was merely pointing how sad it is that some people namely you go out of their way to hit dislike on everything. I don’t mind the button for it’s intended purpose. But disliking it for the sake of disliking it is lame
In response though to your reply of player comparison.
I don’t really see an out pour of Bay support do you? I mean you have to remember you or others recognized people that didn’t like Frenchy because they were in divide with those who flat out loved him.
Show me where anybody is downright supporting Bay blindly? Nobody is. So why beat a dead horse? He’s played terrible, everybody agrees don’t we?
Harris to Cora — I mean I’ll be honest, I don’t truly see the point in bickering about bench players. So if somebody was so anti Cora, they were wasting their breath. The only problem I had with Cora is he was necessary. Meaning they didn’t have anybody else through the system that could have taken his role and he was given a contract he probably didn’t deserve. But I’m not gonna worry about that too much.
Hairston to Barajas isn’t a good comparison at all. For starters, one guy was brought in to be the starting catcher. The other was brought in to be a 4th even 5th outfield option. Totally different expectations.
And again I think people like me focused on Rod’s OBP because of how much love he was getting and that “love” often came with a disregard for reality. You can like bad players, but don’t make them out to be something they are not.
I know Pats fans that love Danny Woodhead, but they aren’t acting like he’s Stephen Jackson etc.
So I guess the FLIP of the conversation is, how come the people that LOVED Frenchy, Barajas, Cora don’t LOVE Harris, Hairston?
At the end of the day, much of the debate on both sides was reactionary. It was “you hate rod well i’m gonna tell you why i love him” or vice versa. You don’t really sit and read articles about how much somebody loves Hairston or Harris do you?
This was the one HUGE big name free agent Omar swung and missed on. All his other high salary big name free agents worked out well. Wagner broke down, but it’s what it is. When he was healthy, he produced. Bay just out and out is DONE. I don’t see why the Mets don’t just simply cut this man. He looks done.
ahhh, well, we can recap and you give me your view on “swing and miss” omar ok
pedro martinez 4/52 mil, he was what, 33-32 with the mets in 2 1/2 years basically
wagner 4/40 broke down for 1 year and a half basically.. BIGGEST CHOKER SINCE BENITEZ imo
beltran, 7/117 million.. YES.. 4 1/2 good/great years out of 7 is not what bad at all imo
santana 7/143After the trade.. yikes…
bay 4/64.. ugh..
alou 2/16..
Perez 3/36
castillo 4/25
hmmm idk omarfan, it seems you’re being just that.. a fan and not looking at the big picture
good post.
Joe, Is there a way to see where Jason Bay with Boston as far as his feet are in the batters box. Every picture I have seen, you can’t make it out.
I don’t think we would have paid what Boras wanted for Holliday.
Jason Bay ranks right up there with Bobby Bonilla and George Foster.
Every day watching him is like watching that Wolf in Sheep’s clothing, Tom Glavine, give it up to the Marlins when everything was on the line.
Enough of this nightmare!!!
russeeellllll,
oliver perez and luis castillo are around the same area as well..
Alex,
I actually started liking Sandy when he cut Perez. I thought, “FINALLY!” Omar might have kept him.
Of course, I’ll never understand the E-MOUSE biz
russell, i like sandy don’t get me wrong, but to peg him to be a genious when he did nothing to help this man is a little creepy don’t you think? i mean, i hated omar the GM as much as the next guy, but i don’t fault him for EVRYTHING that happen to the mets, or try to blame him for what’s going on NOW with the mets.. is ok to like sandy, is another thing to obsess about him as he if he will bring a championship this year to flushin
No, Alex, I agree: no championship in Flushing this year.
It was basically: Why not? No one really distinguished themselves at 2B in Spring Training. Turner had options and Murphy could play other spots or just platoon with Emaus.
Emaus had to be used or sent back. Emaus didn’t produce, so he was shipped off. If they had tried turner first, they lose out on a candidate all together.
then what was the point of picking eamus?? i am still trying to figure it out..
Again: why not? Ricciardi liked him, he showed some potential and they didn’t have much anyway.
It didn’t work and he was gone in what…2 weeks of platooning?
It’s not like we are stuck with him for 2 more years with an easily attainable vesting option.
so, whether we pay 50000$ or 2 million, it was a player who stunk it up and got cut, that is and was a bad move.. right?? that is my point.. horrendous move by alderson, yet ppl here NEVER would dare to say that… they blame omar for having castillo or simply say “well, sandy brought turner up from the minors”.. i mean.. just wow ppl, i don’t get the smoochfest
It wasn’t horrendous. Did Emaus work out? No.
Did the fact that he didn’t work out harm us for years to come? No.
Did anyone distinguish themselves as head and shoulders above him prior to the season? No.
Was the reasoning sound? Yes.
As I keep saying, it’s not about one player or instance. It’s about the full body of work.
Full body of work?? eamus?? really???? get off baseball prospectus and baseball america and actually watch the games.. wow..
Not Emaus’ full body of work. the Mets. In a few years, we can look at Alderson’s
Again, look at the big picture.
But, I say that clearly over and over again.
You and the Brown Shirts are either being intentionally obtuse and dishonest, or you’re all that dumb.
Does “neither” work?
No, you absolutely have to spend every penny available. There’s no other way teams work.
And of course, simply giving a guy a big contract means he will automatically be the catalyst that turns your team from a cellar dweller to a World Series contender.
I think you are simplifying things to an extreme that most fans dont really believe in. As I mentioned in my post the Mets neeed a power hitting left fielder for the reasons I wrote. At the time F-Mart, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Evans and Murphy were not solutions. It’s easy to say we shouldn’t have signed any free agent now in light of how things turned out, but what would have been your plan for opening day 2010 in left field? The debate on this and every other site was not about not signing a leftfielder, it was about which of the two to sign. There were literally hundreds of posts on this in the blogosphere. I know everyone like to paint black or white, but the majority of fans like me reside in the middle and not on the extreme opposite sides.
I said from day 1 neither was a good idea. It really wasn’t a secret that Citi Field doesn’t play to RH fly ball hitters. Locking the team to one already in his 30s was short sighted and ineffective. The team lacked depth all around. One guy was not the solution.
Besides, its the not the Bay signing so much as to the lack of planning and foresight that led to it.
“Does “neither” work?”
Yep because we should have bought Pitching!
we did, oliver perez…
Well, would you rather have had Lackey over Bay?
depends. i think lackey in the NL would’ve did better than he’s doing in the A: east, i mean, other than the phillies how many good offensive teams does the NL havE?? maybe 3 or 4??
Yes
I guess I would say Yes as well, but either situation is a debacle.
Yeah I think first of all, when you start thinking like this you get into a bermuda triangle of hindsight.
The cruz of the issue comes down to, would you rather an older player be in LF through 2016 guaranteed at $17m or through 2013 guaranteed at $16m.
So yeah I agree right now Holliday is better, how can you not agree?
BUT
If the idea is to get younger, and stop having huge clogging salaries for older players…. Holliday eventually WILL be a clog. And so having him in LF for the next 5 years could really give a younger player a glass ceiling impact and it would handcuff the front office for a longer period of time.
So is one mistake better than another? I don’t really think so
I think the real question should be;
“If I told you in the December 2009 that Jason Bay would hit less than 12 home runs and drive in less than 50 rbi’s and have less than 50 runs scored in 2010 and 2011 seasons would you have believed me?’
Of course not.
lifelong, i mean, he hustles and is a professional.. most fans were here saying that whenever a post about bay was posted.. not looking at the big picture that he just plain sucks
With their luck if they had gotten Holliday he would have had sub par career numbers like in Oakland, and been on the DL with freak injuries a few time already. Mets have been DL-derailed again this year, bench players are even going down.
Okay I’ve read the post and my conclusion is what I’ve felt all along. JASON BAY SUCKS ! He hasn’t earned a dime of his contract. I’d feel better about it if he had addiction problems or some kind of malady . He’s got nothing. I doubt he even realizes where he is half the time !
LET ME SEE U R ASKING IF I WOULD, KNOWING WHAT I KNOW NOW PREFER TO COMMIT $66M OVER 4 YRS TO A LFer, WHO’S “LOST IT” CONFRONTED BY THE “GREAT BARRIER” WALL IN JASON BAY OR COMMIT 120M OVER 7 YRS. FOR A STILL UNKNOWN ‘WALL EFFECT’, QUESTIONABLY FIELDING OPTION IN MATT HOLLIDAY.
I MUST CONFESS TO BEING ONE WHO PREFERS MY PAIN SHORT.SHARP AND SWIFT LIKE BANDAID REMOVAL RATHER THAN VERY EXCRUTIATINGLY LONG. AT LEAST, WITH THE BASY MISTAKE WE’RE ALREADY HALF WAY THROUGH, WHILE IF HOLLIDAY BOMBED IN CITI WE’VE STILL A LONG WAY TO CARRY THAT FINANCIALLY RUINESS BURDEN.
I WOULD STILL CHOOSE BAY PRIMARILY BECAUSE HE IS NOT A BORAS CLIENT AND THE METS WOULD HAVE HAD TO EXCEED STL’S 7Y, 120M OFFER TO SECURE HIS SERVICES. HOLLIDAY IN CITIFIELD SIMPLY IS AN UBER EXPENSIVE SQUARE PEG IN AN OVAL SHAPED HOLE!
HOLLIDAY’S DEFENSE IN CITYI IS NEARLY AS INTOLERABLE AS BAY’S OFFENSE & THERE’S NO GUARANTEEING HOLLIDAY COULD HIT IN CITI.
AS I RECALL, AT THE TIME, HOLLIDAY’S HITTING CHARTS SHOWED HE TENDED TOWARD RCF LIKE WRIGHT WHILE BAY WAS MORE DISPOSED TO LF & LCF.
I’M SORRY IF BRINGING FACTS TO THE SUPPOSITION IS CHEATING; BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ONLY EMOTIONALLY GUIDED!