27
2011
If Only David Wright Had Progressed Like Ryan Braun
An article by 
Earlier today, my colleague at MMO, Jason Pafundi, wrote an interesting piece on why the Mets should consider trading David Wright. Jason is not the first person on this site or on other sites to explore this topic. The trading of the Mets’ third baseman is a topic that can be argued for days on end, and people on both sides can present valid points to defend their respective arguments.
But I’m not here to discuss why David Wright should or should not be dealt. I’d rather talk about what David Wright should have become. When Citi Field opened its doors for the first time in 2009, David Wright was coming off one of the best three-year stretches in franchise history. His 2006 (.311, 26 HR, 116 RBI, 20 SB), 2007 (.325, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 34 SB) and 2008 (.302, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB) seasons were eye-popping, to say the least. But since 2009, Wright has been no more than an ordinary player, only occasionally showing flashes of his former self.
The 2009 season marked the first time David Wright spent time on the disabled list, having been felled by Matt Cain’s head-seeking missile in August. However, his bat and approach at the plate seemed to have been on the disabled list long before August. For the season, Wright finished with a career-low 10 HR. His 72 RBI (also a career-low for a full season) might have been a result of the lack of healthy hitters on the team for him to drive in. But it wasn’t all due to the injuries to Reyes, Delgado and Beltran. For the season, Wright hit .206 with a runner on third base and two outs, a situation where the batter can’t depend on a sacrifice fly to drive in the run. Wright also hit .200 with the bases loaded (his OBP in those spots was also .200, meaning he couldn’t even draw a walk with the bases loaded all year) and .200 with runners on second and third.
The most alarming stat concerning the above situations was his propensity to strike out in those scenarios. With a runner on third base and two outs, Wright struck out almost half of the time (16 Ks in 34 at-bats). It got even worse when Wright batted with runners on second and third (8 Ks in 15 at-bats). Although he made contact more often with the bases loaded (6 Ks in 15 at-bats), it’s still a 40% strikeout rate and it gave Wright 30 strikeouts in 64 at-bats in those three big RBI situations. Even with his power outage in 2009, Wright could still have easily driven in 100 runs if his batting average in the three aforementioned situations was more in line with his batting average for the season (Wright hit .307 for the year).
Although Wright’s power returned in 2010 (29 HR, 103 RBI), he did not improve in the key RBI situations mentioned above. Wright batted a combined .250 (10-for-40) in those spots, again striking out almost half the time (19 Ks in 40 at-bats). In addition, Wright batted .260 anytime he came up with at least one runner in scoring position. For the year, Wright batted a career-low .283, while striking out a career-high 161 times.
We don’t really have much of a sample for David Wright in 2011 because he’s spent just as much time off the field than on it, playing in only 71 of the team’s 130 games. But even when he’s played, he hasn’t shown much improvement in the strikeout category (67 Ks in 71 games) and his batting average has gone down to .256.
That brings us to one of David Wright’s contemporaries, a man who also played some third base early in his career, but has since shifted to the outfield and has shown improvement every season he’s been in the major leagues. That man is Ryan Braun.
After coming out of nowhere to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award in 2007, Braun didn’t suffer a sophomore slump. His batting average dropped to .285 after the .324 mark he registered during his rookie season, but his power production didn’t suffer the same fate, as Braun hit a career-high 37 HR in 2008 while picking up 106 RBI. More importantly, the second-year player didn’t wilt under the pressure of his first playoff race, hitting the decisive two-run homer in the Brewers’ final regular season game, a game in which the Brewers clinched the NL wild card berth over David Wright and the Mets.
Since getting his first taste of playoff experience in 2008, Braun has continued his progression into the upper echelon of National League players. In 2009, he led the Senior Circuit in hits with 203. He also recovered from his only sub-.300 season to hit .320 while not skimping on the power (32 HR, 114 RBI). Of course, Braun didn’t just stop there, adding another dimension to his offensive game by stealing 20 bases. It was more of the same in 2010 for Braun, as the Brewers’ leftfielder hit .304 with 45 doubles (which is more than any Met has ever registered in a single season), 25 HR and 103 RBI. His contact rate also got better, as he struck out 105 times in 2010 after whiffing 121 times in 2009 and a career-high 129 times in 2008.
In 2011, Braun has become the leading candidate to win the National League MVP Award. His .333 batting average is second to the Mets’ Jose Reyes and his contact rate has improved dramatically, striking out only 75 times in 507 plate appearances. Braun is also leading the league in runs scored (91), slugging percentage (.592) and OPS (.996), and is currently in the league’s top ten in a plethora of categories such as hits (160), extra-base hits (62), on-base percentage (.404), total bases (265), doubles (33), home runs (25), RBIs (86) and stolen bases (30). And of course, he’s helping the Brewers open up a commanding lead in the NL Central.
So how does Ryan Braun do in key RBI spots, especially since I made such a big deal out of how David Wright has performed poorly in those situations? Actually, Braun’s career numbers are quite good whenever an RBI is there for the taking. In five years in the major leagues, Braun has hit .265 with a runner on third base and two outs, striking out 25 times in 117 at-bats. His numbers are even better in the other two scenarios. With runners on second and third, Braun is a .286 career hitter with 11 strikeouts in 49 at-bats. Finally, with the bases loaded, Braun’s eyes light up. In 63 career at-bats with the bags full, Braun is hitting .317 and has only struck out 10 times. Overall, the Hebrew Hammer is hitting .306 over his major league career with runners in scoring position, which is right in line with his career numbers.
David Wright has been one of the best players the Mets have had in recent years, but he could have been so much better. If he is not traded at some point, he could still turn his career around, but nothing in recent years has suggested that a renaissance is about to occur. Just the fact that his name is being mentioned around the blogosphere in potential trades suggest that the fans don’t think of him as “the savior” he was supposed to be. He may not be that savior of the franchise, but at the very least, he could have been like Ryan Braun, a player who has continued to improve every aspect of his game from season to season.
It’s too bad David Wright hasn’t been able to continue his forward progress past the 2008 season. Until he does, the word “trade” will never be too far behind in discussions of the Mets’ third baseman.
About the Author: Ed Leyro
Ed Leyro was hatched in the Bronx, but spent most of his youth in Queens at Shea Stadium. Apparently, all that time spent at Mets games paid off as Ed met his wife (The Coop) for the first time at Citi Field during its inaugural season. Guess the 2009 season was good for something after all. In addition to his work at Mets Merized Online, Ed also owns, operates and is head janitor at Studious Metsimus, where he shares blogging duties with Joey Beartran. For those not in the know, Joey is a teddy bear dressed in a Mets hoodie. Clearly, Studious Metsimus is not your typical Mets blog.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 28 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 35 | .493 | 7.5 |
| Phillies | 34 | 37 | .479 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 40 | .385 | 14.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 47 | .319 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/18/2013
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Well said. But I’m still for trading him if we can get of someone of value in return.
Yeah, but it stinks because he is such a nice guy and a great ballplayer…
Put it this way, if they trade him, I’ll be pissed…I’m going where he goes, Go Mets, but wherever he goes I’m rooting for them #2
he is certainly at an interesting point (turning point?) in his career. A proven top talent, and still young (should really just be entering his peak production years). So he could be a guy that peaked early and then muddled along for years, living off his reputation. Or, he could rebound to what he used to be (or more) and put up a good 5 year string of AS seasons. And frankly, I doubt anyone has any clue which will happen!
at least the Mets have 2 more years to evaluate before having to make a LT decision. If 2012-13 are more of the same from the last few seasons, then he won’t be getting a huge $/year deal, from the Mets or anyone.
How dare he have off years when he gets injured!
Yeah…how dare he have 3 straight off years! Idiot.
Not a whole lot of difference between Wright and Braun to comparable points in their careers. Wright through 2008 and Braun through similar taking him through this season. Wright through his first 2,650 AB’s: .309/.389/.533/.921
Braun through current 2,764: .311/.371/.560/.931
I don’t think anyone thought Wright would struggle to the degree he has since 2008. It happened to Wright and could happen to Braun, to anyone especially after getting clunked in the head.
Everyone must be bored today……….
How many posts can we write about what let downs our own players are……..
They are serving candy apples and cotton candy for sensitive fans like you on Metsblog. lol
WOW you’re funny
I am not sure why you would complain about last year when he once again had 30 HRs and 100 RBI. I am sure most teams would say “uh so what if he struck out a lot?”
Wow, I love how David Wright is being used as a scapegoat for the Mets failures for the past few years. Nobody writes an article about what Mike Pelfrey should have become, or why Bobby Parnell can’t close even with a 100+ fastball.
If Ryan Braun could carry a team, why are people writing off the Brewers for next year when Prince Fielder will be gone? David Wright can’t carry a team but such expectations are just wrong. Is it his fault he bats behind Ruben Tejada and above Lucas Duda? Cmon, Mets fans grow up! Sure, trade your franchise third baseman, and resign Jose Reyes who plays 100 games a year with hammy issues. Appreciate the few things that are “Wright” with this team Mets fans.
Yeah lets pretend Wright didnt have two mvp candidates (Tron, Joe Kings) sandwiching him before Tejada and Duda, who by the way are outhitting Wright in August.
I love it how Mets fan expect Wright to hit 20-30 HR in a season where he was injured for 2 months. His 11 homeruns leads the team, and he was INJURED! Do you really want Nick Evans as your third baseman of the future? Just to prove a point, all of the people who want Wright gone discount all of his ALL STAR appearances, and good seasons. You know he did have a 30 hr and 100 rbi season last year (ALSO IN CITI FIELD), are your memories that weak? Jason Bay probably won’t hit 30 hrs in his 4 year deal with the Mets. Cut the guy a break! Wright should be the least of Mets fans worries. If you guys really hate Wright that much, maybe follow the Buffalo Bisons because that is what the team would be without Wright.
I like the guy, dont get me wrong. But if the converstion is about carrying a team, Wright shouldnt be in the discussion. He has never carried this team, good 3B, but couldnt shine Strawberry, Piazza, Carter, Beltran, Delgado shoes. Those guys could carry teams.
That’s nonsense, 2007 Wright had one of the greatest seasons for any Mets position player (highest WAR in NL and much more deserving of MVP than Rollins)
Best hitting seasons for your aforementioned Mets (minimum 500 PAs):
Strawberry: .284/.398/.583 (.415 wOBA, 161 wRC+)
Wright: .325/.416/.546 (.420 wOBA, 155 wRC+)
Piazza: .324/.398/.614 (.422 wOBA, 153 wRC+)
Beltran: .275/.388/.594 (.412 wOBA, 151 wRC+)
Carter: .281/.365/.488 (.369 wOBA, 137 wRC+)
Delgado: .265/.361/.548 (.376 wOBA, 128 wRC+)
it already is the bisons,wake up.
Tell us what is right with this team and we will give it a shot.
Wright’s overall decline in his offensive numbers is more telling than some batting average with RISP, since batting average is an woefully inadequate measure of performance, and that 50-150 PAs is too small of a sample size for offensive numbers to stabilize.
Before everyone starts comparing David Wright pre-2009 to David Wright 2011,
Has anyone bothered to compare the batters around David Wright pre-2009 to the batter he has around him now like Jason Bay and Lucas Duda?
I know many like to think the WALLS are to blame or that David has not been as good as he was (the numbers tell a different story by the way).
But no mention is EVER made of the situation he had when he hit 30 and 33 HRs compared to now!
Lets Review!
2005-2008 (I will skip his rookie year since he only had 69 games worth of stats!)
2005 575AB 176H 301TB 42D 27HR .306BA .525SLG (Floyd 34HR, Beltran 16HR, Piazza 19HR, Cameron 12HR)
2006 582AB 181H 309TB 40D 26HR .311BA .531SLG (Beltran 41HR, Delgado 38HR, Reyes 19HR, Valentin 18HR, Nady 14HR, Floyd 11HR)
2007 604AB 113H 330TB 42D 30HR .325BA .546SLG (Beltran 33HR, Delgado 24HR, Alou 13HR Reyes 12HR, Castro 11HR)
2008 626AB 189H 334TB 42D 33HR .302BA .534SLG (Delgado 38HR Beltran 27HR, Reyes 16HR, Church 12HR, Tatis 11HR)
Now lets look at 2009 itself for a sec.
2009 535AB 164H 239TB 39D 10HR .307BA .447SLG (Murphy 10HR, Beltran 10HR, Francouer 10HR, Sheffield 10HR)
Hmmm The year everyone notes as David’s WALL year he was surrounded by guys that had two more HRs total than Delgado himself had the year David smacked 33 dingers!
lets move on and see if the pattern presents itself….
2010 587AB 166H 295TB 36D 29HR .283BA .503SLG (Davis 19HR, Barajas 12HR, Francouer 11HR, Pagan 11 HR, Reyes 11HR)
How many would he have hit if he had at least ONE guy with 30+ HRs in the linup?
He hit one shy of 30! Would have more this year if he wasn’t hurt as he has historically hit well in June (the time he was on the DL this year)
You guys are projected a decline by David Wright as the fault of David Wright when what you should be faulting is the fact he hasn’t had a whole lot of power hitting around him!
He is NOT Ryan Howard, NEVER WAS! He’s a damn good HR threat if you HAVE a Ryan Howard hitting behind him or a fully helthy Beltran who can jack one out on you when you pitch around Wright!
Wrights issues are NOT fence related, His trikeouts WERE related to the beaning and that appears to be fixed now that the former met strikeout king is no longer the Hitting coach!
If you want to see those three or 4 extra HRs you think your entitled to then get someone who is an ACTUAL HR HITTER to clean up behind David Wright not Jason Bay or Daniel Murphy (Maybe Davis if they don’t amputate his leg at this point) and stop worrying about what is wrong with David.
Whats wrong with him is we managed to get rid of all the guys that helped Wright BE a 30+ HR hitter and with everyone more worried about the Wilpons eating steak as they are in getting good players who can protect Wright at the plate you will never get those FOUR EXTRA HRS you didn’t get in 2010!
David has not NOT LIVED UP to expectations…More likely your EXPECTATIONS far exceeded whatever it was David COULD give!
He is playing to avergae for him and if not for that stint on the DL and having Murphy and Bay behind him he would be close to the numbers you expected to get from him.
Maybe he would hit 40 HRs if people spent less time trying to find EXCUSES to get rid of everyone and started spending more time looking for player to GET to help him get there!
My thoughts exactly, this Mets team is no more than a 500 team even if David Wright was Ryan Braun. Face the facts, and stop finding ways to point fingers at the wrong guy.
o.k., so if he doesn’t have protection in the lineup he doesn’t hit,i think that’s more telling.he needs to hide in the lineup to be effective.and since we have no more bonafied hr threats, i guess wright won’t hit then, by that logic.
Replace Wright with Howard in our linup and Howard has maybe 12-15 Hrs this year!
It’s not about being HIDDEN in the lineup…
It’s about Pitching around the one guy who can hurt you because the next guy is an EASY out!
If you don’t understand that then no one you think is any good is going to be a decent replacement for Wright!
Because the only thing that will go up is their OBP as people pitch around them to get to the easier outs!
I feel that it was the head job that he can not get over with it. Untill he does he will no longer be that outstanding player. Sorry david. But I do hope you pull out of it, for you was really a good player but great person.
He showed he was over getting hit when he moved in closer to the plate. Takes real guts to do that when you’ve been hit once by a 94mph fastball.
There are a ton of excuses made for Wright. The problem with Wright was around when Delgado and Beltran were here. Wright simply didn’t produce great numbers. Sure, for those who are deep into the fantasy league numbers, Wright was impressive. The problem is those numbers don’t translate on the field accurately. His failures in key situations over the years were evident dating back to the 2006 playoffs. One would think without the star players, his numbers in clutch situations would increase because he had to step up. In reality, they have diminished for the same reason he never put up a monster year: he doesn’t produce with men on base like true superstars do. Those type of players “carry” teams. Wright doesn’t do that. The Mets would be better off moving this kid. The problem is the team has invested tons of money in marketing him as “the Face of the Franchise” for all the wrong reasons.
“Wright simply didn’t produce great numbers. ”
Except he did. In fact, at the end of 2007 and 2008, he was their best hitter.
“The problem is those numbers don’t translate on the field accurately. ”
It’s all about production. I don’t care how dirty your uniform is, if you suck, you suck. So, its all about the numbers.
“is failures in key situations over the years were evident dating back to the 2006 playoffs. ”
Funny how you never bring that up when discussing Reyes.
“his numbers in clutch situations would increase because he had to step up. In reality, they have diminished for the same reason he never put up a monster year: he doesn’t produce with men on base like true superstars do.”
Actually, he does. You’re contradicting documented facts. And all you can do is dismiss them and claim yourself as an authority. You want to use numbers to prove your point, then you dismiss the ones that oppose you as “fantasy stats” and the usually foolishness.
“The Mets would be better off moving this kid. The problem is the team has invested tons of money in marketing him as “the Face of the Franchise” for all the wrong reasons.”
Ya, there’s no reason a team should market a guy who is a monster player, personable, easy to work with and good looking.
If your mancrush had done his job and built a sustainable winner, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.
I blame Hojo some. Of course, it is David in the box. So responsibility is his. But he called Hojo his baseball father when Hojo was a roving instructor in the minors. Since Hojo became batting coach, David has regressed. Now he is gone, but I consider this a lost season because of the injury; still, I think he has shown progress by adjusting his stance, reducing his swing length, going back to right center, taking doubles and not trying to club the ball. That is the real David, who has very good power even when he does that. He is going to fall back into bad habits from time to time. All hitters do. Having said that, I would still trade him when his value goes up. He has been over too much bad road wth this organization. He should actually want to go somewhere else. It often helps players
OK, so you trade David Wright; now who do you have to play 3B? You fail to consider what you’re giving up when you let David go. A player who can hold down third base every day of the week. There is no one else on this team that can do that. Has anyone noticed David’s play at third since he came back from the DL? He is playing it aggressively and with authority. As he gets his batting eye back after injury and coupled to his fielding at third, you have a vastly productive player who is an every day leader. Let him go and this team drops down another notch. Trading him will be a huge mistake. You will not come close to replacing him with anyone. It’s easy to play down David’s worth, but just wait until he’s gone and you will see the consequences. We need to keep David and build the rest of the team around him by acquiring players who are better than the ones we have for those positions. Name any position you like on this team and it can be improved except for 3B and SS as long as Reyes is healthy. David Wright is part of the true core and trading him will be a huge setback.
he’s only a dominate hitter when he has protection in the lineup.that prtection is gone and so is wrights dominate stats.
Haven’t you figured by now that this administration is intent on cleaning house? At least of the guys that were here for 4 or 5 years. this is a losing culture. You really don’t repair a losing culture—-you clean it out. And if some good guys have to go to complete the deal, they go.
I don’t know they sure didn’t act like losers until K-Rod and Beltran left and even then it took an Injury to Murphy to seal the deal…
Seems to me the ONLY ones with a LOSING culture is the fanbase, sure isn’t the guys on the roster!
Fanbase gave up…the Team never did!
I too have looked over the year, especially those when Jose was healthy and was on base or in scoring position a lot and was not driven in, he could of scored over 150 runs if not for being stranded at 2nd or 3rd.
I don’t know what or how David gets to the point where he figures out what ever it is that makes him un-productive with RISP over the years.
Maybe it is mental but I hope that he figures it out the rest of this year and takes it into 2012 to justify staying a Met into the future.
I know that having protection around you, Braun has Fielder behind him enabling him to get good pitches to hit, but there are times when just making contact or hitting a SF will plate the run or even a ground ball to 2b will do.
Great article, Ed.
Personally, I’m not ready to throw in the towel yet on Wright. He is still too young to give up on and if he returns to form, he can be a monster for another 6-7-8 years.
That being said, Wright, I believe, is just one of those guys who puts up good #’s but NOT in key situations. Put some other great hitters on the team, bat him 6th where there’s no pressure on him.
I feel his decline coincides, to a point, with the leadership role he was given. He’s not a leader. Nice guy, good hitter–but no way is he a leader.