Comments on: Before Getting Excited About Nimmo, Remember Al Shirley (And Others)

By: vinnie papandrea

vinnie papandrea — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 13:53:46 +0000

The problem with Met fans and Met writers is they’re trained to be negative. Of course no one knows how prospects are going to turn out, but that’s not just for the Mets that’s for every one.
There is no reason not to be excited, just understand a lot could go wrong , the nature of the beast

By: alex68

alex68 — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:58:17 +0000

another fan of me… the legion keeps growing..

By: Pat

Pat — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:45:56 +0000

Were YOU in the drafting room? How do YOU know what they took into consideration? ASSume much? Stop with the hate fest on something you clearly do not understand.

By: Pat

Pat — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:44:44 +0000

No, YOU are the one doing that by bringing up with word Sabremetrics and Moneyball in all your responses when you don’t understand either.

By: OmarFan

OmarFan — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 21:47:40 +0000

Sometimes a 12th rd selection turns out better than the #2 pick of the draft. That’s just how it goes. Injuries play such a big part with teenagers/young athletes. No one can predict if a kid’s body will be able to withstand the rigors of a 162 game season. In that regard, there’s no scouting that will predict it. It’s sheer luck of the draw.

By: any

any — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 20:08:32 +0000

well, that is the nature of prospects in this sport. the majority never make it.

The reason other teams were referenced was due to calling the met % “atrocious”. hard to use such a strong word without having some sort of benchmark to work against.

By: Jason Pafundi

Jason Pafundi — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 19:39:29 +0000

I didn’t look at other teams because this was a Mets story on a Mets website. I am sure there are plenty of other teams with the same 50% or even worse, but that wasn’t the point of this. The point was that for all the excitement surrounding Nimmo and him signing, there are plenty of examples of someone who never lives up to the hype.

By: sliver99

sliver99 — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 19:23:18 +0000

I agree with the main point of the article: most first round picks are not superstars. The major leagues represents the best of the best, even the bench players have to be considered the top players in the country. So to be fair to management and to be fair to Nimmo, we should not pencil him in for the Hall of Fame yet.

At the same time, you can’t say that a failure rate (or success rate) of 50% is bad. I think it was Dipodesta who listed the Met pitching prospects and said the Mets would be doing well if half of them are successful. Before you condemn this success rate, you need to look at other teams (as “Any” wrote). I just looked through Baseball America’s Prospect book to see what happened to a team’s top prospect for past years. The number that are in the minors, or out of baseball is really high.

By: Donal

Donal — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 19:09:18 +0000

Stop trying to change the subject. You claimed there was arguement about Omar’s drafts vs Alderson’s sabermetrics.

What sabermetrics does Nimmo excel in that makes him worth a first round over slot deal?

By: alex68

alex68 — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 19:06:01 +0000

again, were any of you guys in the drafting room??? how do you know what they took in consideration??? people, please, stop with this smoochfest with this guys!!! omar was a bad GM, horrendous if you ask me, but he was a good evaluator, let’s not discredit his players and his role this quickly..

By: any

any — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 19:03:41 +0000

at best, saber as related to drafting (especially HS guys) came into play when deciding on skill sets to look at. maybe liking guys that showed plate discipline already?

but no way Nimmo was drafted on some sabermetric basis!

By: Donal

Donal — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 19:02:28 +0000

Like I keep saying, it’s not about 1 player. Nimmo can very well be a bust. It’s the fact that we’re getting guys with such a high ceiling that matters.

By: any

any — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 19:00:03 +0000

really have to look at the % for other teams too to claim it is atrocious. And someone like Kazmir should count on the positive side of the ledger, since he was a productive ML player.

Also, not all of those guys were high 1st round picks. Big difference between #2 and #29.

To me, the excitement was not so much that Nimmo was going to be a can’t miss star (there aren’t any of those!). More so that it indicated the team now was willing to spend money and take a shot at a high ceiling, potential star, instead of going with safe (aka cheaper) low ceiling picks like Kunz.

Get enough of the high ceiling types, and the few hits more than make up for the misses!

By: Donal

Donal — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 18:59:26 +0000

What sabermetric statistics make Nimmo attractive as a first round over slot signing?

It has been said to you time and time again by several people that amateur scouting does not utilize statistics. The fact that you keep claiming it does only shows how dishonest, unoriginal and ignorant you are.

The only people who are creating that argument are you and the Brown Shirts.

By: alex68

alex68 — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 18:56:24 +0000

ALEX OCHOA!!!! a no doubter, can’t miss, super stud we had… same with escobar… in all fairness as fans e should be happy we got a kid to play for us in the future, what trumps that is that fact that some ppl have created this “the sabermetrics of sandy against the omar draft classes” argument when it comes to every player we got this year and in years past.. i hope nimmo, fullmer, wheeler all do good, hell, i’ll prob go see them play at the stadium once come up, but also, i am excited to see familia, mejia, vaughn, harvey and all the players minaya got as well for us and to do good as well..

By: Jason Pafundi

Jason Pafundi — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 18:14:04 +0000

Right, Escobar and F-Mart were talked about forever, and look how they panned out. And I only looked at first-rounders because they are presumably the most highly touted and are signed for the most money usually too.

By: Matt

Matt — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 18:12:04 +0000

100% agree with this article. Look at all of the Mets can’t miss OF prospects over the years (Ryan Thompson, Alex Ochoa, Alex Excobar, Jason Tyner, FERNANDO MARTINEZ). I’m not counting on the highest draft pick to ever come out of a Wymoming H.S. until I see him actually moving up through the minors.