22
2011
A Tale Of Two Seasons
An article by XtreemIcon
Dillon Gee took New York by storm, coming up in April as an injury replacement. He started twice, had three relief appearances, the joined the rotation for good on May 7th. Over his first 10 starts (13 games), Gee was 7-0 with a 2.86 ERA, and talks of a Rookie of the Year run began. Gee was pitching some great baseball, with only a 3 BB/9 ratio and 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings (a 2.23 K/BB). Opponents were hitting .208/.288/.301 off Gee and in 238 at-bats, he had only give up twelve extra base hits.
Since then, however, Gee’s made exactly ten more starts, and the numbers are not good at all. His record is 4-4 over those starts with a 5.12 ERA, His K/BB sits at an uninspiring 1.1 due to a 4.5 BB/9 and a 5.1 K/9. Opponents didn’t exactly rake, but the .244/.346/.429 is nothing to be proud of. And those twelve extra base hits from his first half? Well, he’s given up 14 doubles since then, 23 XBH overall. And that’s in only 217 at-bats, 21 fewer than in his first ten starts.
You can say someone’s had a bad month, or hit a wall, and those things happen all the time. But this is a little more than that. This is half of his season and a 5.12 ERA and 1.1 K/BB are not major league caliber numbers. Gee is still having a good season, but to be 11-4 with a 3.92 ERA right now after starting out the way he did is concerning, to say the least.
What’s the cause? Well, we won’t really know if this is a trend or just an extended rough patch for another six weeks or so. If Gee pitches to a 3.00 ERA or thereabouts the rest of the way, we’ll have our answer. But if he continues this pace of a 5.12 ERA, I might have an idea.
I think he might be overworked.
I know…he’s thrown only 124 innings this season. But I’m not talking about this season. I’m talking about 2010. Between AAA and the Mets, Gee threw 191 innings. His previous high as a professional was in 2008, when he logged 154.1 innings, 36.2 innings fewer. He separated those two seasons with an injury-plagued 2009 in which he only made nine starts. I just think the poor guy was beat after last season and it’s affecting him as this season wears on.
I looked around to see if any other pitchers may have experienced this, and the list is certainly impressive. The following chart lists the season the corresponding pitcher struggled, his inning total the previous season and the difference between his previous professional high, and his season ERA followed by his career ERA in parenthesis.
I capped the list at these eight because as you can see, it can happen to the best of them, and I didn’t want to dilute the list with less impressive names. Some of the best pitchers in the game are on the list. This phenomenon is not a rule, of course, but there are some signs about the type of pitchers that “suffer” from this. It did not happen to CC Sabathia. It did not happen to Felix Hernandez. Nor did Roy Halladay suffer from it. But those guys are some of the strongest horses in the game and these pitchers on the list just aren’t the power pitchers CC, Doc and King Felix are. Neither is Gee. Also, aside from a very precocious Cain, the average age of the pitchers on that list is 25. Gee is 25. Just sayin’.
Well, what’s the solution? I think the solution is easy, but likely not going to happen. After September 1st, I’d go to a six-man rotation. Get Chris Schwinden up, and let everyone go at it every 6th day. There’s very little downside to this, unless you count six-man rotations being taboo as a downside. Get Schwinden four or five starts to let him have a taste and give the young guys Gee and Jon Niese a blow (Niese, by the way, is pitching to a 4.85 ERA in his last twelve games, compared to a 3.46 ERA in his first fourteen).
I certainly don’t want to see anything as drastic as the “Joba” rules applied to Gee or Niese, but I don’t see much value in trotting a kid out there when he’s gassed and getting near the end of his rope just for the sake of it. Gee hasn’t gotten through seven innings in his last five starts, something he did in roughly every other start from that May 7th start when he entered the rotation full time till the last time he did so, July 19th. I just don’t think he’s got much left in the tank during the dog days, and you can kill two birds with one stone giving Schwinder a few turns.
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
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No one knows what Gee will wind up being. He could be an ace. He could be a #3. He could wind up being a #5. This is the normal growth pattern of a rookie pitcher. As time goes on, we will see if Gee has the stuff required to make it as a legit starter in the bigs. You wait him out for a year or two.
No, he won’t be an ace. He can be a good back of the rotation guy or maybe even a #3.
You should have your crystal ball give me tomorrow’s lotto numbers.
If Gee was going to be an Ace he’d have shown that ability before turning 26 next April. He’s not an ace.
If you look one day and say “Dillon Gee is our #3 and I am happy with his performance” then Gee has hit his ceiling and that’s not a bad thing.
And your crystal ball should give me the numbers to Wednesday night’s drawing!
To be fair Jessup I don’t think Sandy Alderson could’ve guessed that Dave Stewart in his 30′s would lead Oaklandto the post season or compete for the Cy the way he did. It’s rare but you never know.
probably steroids helped dave steward become the beast he became in a 4 year span from 1987 to 1990.. he was logging innings like crazy, avg 266 ip [er year, had 41 out of his 55 complete games, along with 7 shutouts out his 9 career total.. all those players in oakland imo were on something.. and guess who prob turned the other way while all this was happening??
I don’t recall Stewarts name coming up as a possible user so to just throw that out there is pretty low don’t you think? Stewart was a stud coming up but could never put it together until Dave Duncan got a hold of him. That was more of an explaination than drugs.
fair enough..
Didn’t I hear Collins say he was going to rest Niese a bit more in September?
I agree about Gee. He carried a lot of hype due to his W-L record, and I even remember people using names like “Greg Maddux” which just make me cringe.
The fact is Gee is groomed to be a viable 4/5 starter. Nothing wrong with that at all. But I would consider finding a way to shut him down slowly. It’s tricky because he still has a lot to learn, so you don’t want to totally shut it down
I think Gee can be a good #3 starter if things go his way. I think the six-man is a good way to go because it rests guys and gives Schwinden a shot. I think there’s a lot of upside to it and I can’t really think of any downside. It’s not like the Mets have some sort of ace they need to keep on regular rest.
That’s what the point of this post was I thought? To go to a six-man rotation to give him some extra rest and still have him pitch. I 100% disagree with you on Gee being overrated early because of his w/l. Up until his first loss, Gee pitched in 13 games, went 7-0 and had a 2.86 ERA. That was dominany, and his 1.22 career WHIP in 28 games is hardly 4/5, in fact it’s the best mark on the team in that span.
Jessup -
I never said he was Greg Maddux in the article I wrote I compared him more too Rick Reed who was compared often times as being a poor man’s Greg Maddux. There’s a difference. I didn’t crown Gee as a Hall of Famer or anything of the like. I just wanted to clear that up.
i am sure if dillon gee was pitching for the braves, with an 11-4 3.94 ERA, some ppl here would be calling him a future ace, he needs to mature, he’ll be a cy young candidate, but since he’s a met, he sucks, he’s nothing but a 4th or 5th starter at best, how dare we compare him to greg maddux like intangibles.. brandon beachy a 6-2 3.38 ERA is a SERIOUS CANDIDATE for rookie of the year but gee isn’t. some ppl just make me sick in this blog.. you know, i have posted a link where some of you BRAVES fans can get the hell away
Alex: Your obsession is getting the best of you again.
Why does acknowleding that other teams are good frighten you so much?
It’s kind of like when you flipped your lid because I said Kimbrel is the best closer in the NL right now. As of now, he would win the award for best reliever in the NL by the way
Will Beachy win ROY? No. But at the time of our discussion he was a candidate. And by the way
Player A: 19 GS, 108IP, 94H, 40ER, 32BB, 120K, 1.16WHIP, 3.32 ERA 6-2
Player B: 20GS/23G, 124IP, 102H, 54ER 51BB, 82K, 1.23WHIP, 3.92ERA 11-4
Other than Beachy’s decisions, he’s keeping quite a nice pace with Dillon Gee. He isn’t in charge of driving in runs. He’s walking fewer batters, striking out more, giving up less runs and allowing just as many hits per inning as Gee.
So I’m not sure why you find it so funny that on a nightly basis Beachy pitches better than Gee? i’m not calling Beachy an ace. He’s a fine #4 as well, and as the case may be, he’s a better pitcher than Dillon Gee right now.
It doesn’t make me a Braves fan, it makes me somebody who pays attention to things outside my flushing bubble.
is that what you said about beachy??? you basically were on his nuts!!!
are you kidding me?? after you s*** all over mets players and smooch the hell out of braves players how the hell me and everybody who sees that is suppose to feel about you?? you never said beachy was a #4, again, you said SERIOUS CANDIDATE to win ROY in a post about justin turner, i mean, you took the article and reverse it so turner don’t have the spotlite, you went with 4 braves in a row before mentioning another kid also, you are a pathetic faker who pretend to be a mets fan, go away to a braves blog since you love them so much?? kimbrel the best closer?? just because he has the most saves doesn’t make him the best, remember joe nathan? urbina? papelbon? slocumb? mitch williams? wagner? all lead the league in saves at one point or another.. please shut up.. remember how DOMINANT carlos marmol was last year??? remmeber a 2.55 ERA with 38 saves and 138 STRIKEOUTS!?? i don’t remember you GUSHING ABOUT HIM as you are gushing and drooling about kimbrel, ohh, and by the way, only 3 blown saves in 41 chances, for a 75 win team.. do the math.. you are A BRAVES FAN!! GO AWAY!!
So on Memorial Day I said I thought Beachy and Gee were probably the 2 best rookie starting pitcher candidates and I suggested Justin Turner would slow down… that makes me a Braves fan?
I think it kinda makes me right actually.
“you said SERIOUS CANDIDATE to win ROY in a post about justin turner, i mean, you took the article and reverse it so turner don’t have the spotlite, you went with 4 braves in a row before mentioning another kid also”
Actually what I said exactly was “You’re on to something with Gee because there are not many NL Pitcher ROY candidates. So he’d at least be in the tops there… Brandon Beachy is probably the only other pitcher candidate in my book right now.”
“kimbrel the best closer?? just because he has the most saves doesn’t make him the best”
He is the best NL Closer right now. He has the most saves, the best Whip, the best ERA, the most K/IP. What more do you want from your closer? And oh by the way, he’s 23 years old!
Carlos Marmol didn’t have the best ERA as a closer, didn’t have the best whip, didn’t have the most saves. Probably why you didn’t see me saying he was the best closer of 2010.
I still can’t really understand why its so hard for you to admit other players on other teams are real good. Remember when you bragged about how weak Atlanta’s schedule was and how they were going to slow down? They went from a 92 win pace to a 96 win pace. Good call Alex.
pathetic little braves fan.. that’s my opinion of you, nice way to turn your own words..
funny how kimbrel is 4th in whip among closer, and JUST NOW passed hanrahan for best closers ERA, way to look up your facts.. YOU NEVER said beachy and gee were the 2 best rookie pitchers, you gushed about beachy, yet i responded with an “he’s 3-2 with an 3.50 ERA and he’s a serious contender for ROTY? are you kidding me????
Alex: I literally took the comment and quoted it word for word. So how can you say it wasn’t what I said when its exactly what I said?
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/05/the-mets-have-two-legit-rookie-of-the-year-candidates.html
And once again, if the season ended today… The NL Reliever of the Year Award would go to Craig Kimbrel.
all you did was proved my point how you can’t seem happy about anything mets, you took someone else over turner even then when turner was rookie of the month.. that’s just sad.. right away i told you he’s just writing about candidate.. also, NOW you seem to put a lot of emphasis on reliever of the year, didn’t krod won it 2 times? holds the record for most saves in a season? cy young candidate 4 straight year? and what does the genious of sandy does? trade him for a hug and cup of coffee.. that’s what can happen to closers right?
To be fair to Alderson. He probably had not realized KRod owned a time machine which made 2005-2008 relevant to his worth in 2011.
yea, you’re right, 2 PTBN who will most likely be CRAP and amount to nothing for krod was the right deal.. i am glad we need to go to shopping for a CLOSER again in the 2011 offseason..
Why? So some fragile little relief pitcher can up his market value, even if the team finishes under .500?
Let’s wait until the Mets are a legit contender before we start worrying about who the closer is.
Gotta win games to close games.”
kinda like 2008?? with the new york mets?
You have to get in some close games before you can worry about winning them.
You have to get in some close games before you can worry about winning them.”
again, kinda like the 2008 new york mets????? the bullpen was blowing games from all angles.. 7th, 8th and 9th inning..
Well, ya, that’s my point. the entire teams failed.
A big time closer doesn’t do much for a team in the Mets’ current position.
Gotta win games to close games.
by the way, before this weekend series against the reds, hanrahan was 31-32 in saves opp, with a 1.16 ERA.. in 2 innings this past weekend he allowed 4 runs, bringin his ERA up to 1.76, kimbrel is 1.72 ERA, and hasn’t allowed a run since mid june.. he’s been great, automatic, but we’ve seen this type of closing masterpieces many times from different closer year AFTER year..
Heath Bell?
Well even guys like halladay, Lee and Sabathia went through rough patches they had to overcome. Unfortunatly many here who judge players never seem to follow as closely as they follow the mets so either don’t see or never pay attention to those players when they have those rough spots.
EVERY pitcher reaches a point where the league makes an adjustment to them and they must in turn adjust to that adjustment.
Halladay wasn’t all that good the first 4 years of his career.
Cliff Lee went 14-8 with a 5.43 ERA his third year, first year as a full time starter. in 2006 he went 14-11 with a 4.40 era. Yet he STILL managed to make Ace didn’t he?
Sabathia was much like Gooden, had a great first year but he pretty much just got by the next few after that until 2007.
Too many here think it should all be like Gooden who comes in and is an ACE from the get go. That is a rarity and usually it does not last very long (Gooden would prove that wouldn’t he?)
Gee basically needed to make adjustments and he is also in his first full season so this is about his most IP pitched in any season so far. Add to it a few losses that were not due to his pitching but lack of run support and a few blown saves here and there and you have the typical recipie of a Rookie Pitcher, LEARNING his craft, Facing the grind of a full season and having to make his first adjustments to a league who is quick to adjust to what your doing.
But too many people assume you have to be ACE out of the gate because thats what Gooden did and they THINK Halladay and Lee were like that…
NOT TRUE!
Metsie, thanks for commenting on the actual article.
CC and Doc weren’t the studs they are now when they came up, but they never struggled due to workload, or at the stats would have us believe. They got better and better each year. They didn’t regress due to increased workload. Lee didn’t, either. He lost his mojo for sure the year he got sent down, but not because of workload. Those guys are horses.
Gee’s performances this season are nothing if not normal and expected, but I’m more interested in the why and how as opposed to the what. It’s not enough to say look at Gee’s season and brush it off with a “he was up and down, but he’s a kid, he’ll get better.”
I’d like to know he struggled with and what he did well.
Gee coming back down to reality shouldn’t surprise anyone. He wasn’t exactly Tom Seaver in AAA…39 starts is a fair sampling, and he had an ERA 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.310. I like Gee, but expecting him to be an MLB star when he was not even a AAA star is asking a bit much.
matt,
nobody is making him out to be a star or anything, but come on, give him some props, there’s a thing call “dedication”, you can’t teach that, he’s a hard worker, he can become better and better, already some of these braves fans are dogging him saying he’s at best a #4 starter, ever heard of TOM BRADY?? he worked his ass off to be who he is today, can’t dillon gee do the same for exapmple? why can’t we wish that instead of dogging him? kimbrel this, heyward that, freeman is a HOF, beachy is a stud, the braves system is just AMAZING, we should envy them.. blah, blah, blah!!
I’m rooting for Dillon Gee…but he’s not a front end of the rotation MLB starter. I’m hopeful he will be a strong #3 for the Mets…If he is their #1 or #2, then the Mets will be in trouble. Take tonight’s game as an example.