13
2011
Why Trade Francisco? Why Not!
An article by 
I’m very happy this move happened last night. Here’s a few reasons why,
#1) K-Rod hired Scott Boras just a few days ago, and upon that hiring Boras began to send subtle threats to the Mets and Alderson that he controls where he goes and not Alderson.
#2) If you choose to buy into the fact that a man at KRod’s age can suddenly change his demeanor and personality simply with a few months of therapy than god bless ya. I personally think it takes longer than that. This is still the guy who cared so little about his time with the Mets that he punched his girlfriend’s father in the Mets clubhouse which THEN lead to a season ending injury.
#3) The longer they waited, the less time his new team had to avoid the vested option. He has to finish 21 games. If he went until July 31st with the Mets, that number would be down approaching 10 games. Thus, his stock drops even lower from where it was last night.
#4) Regardless of the hopes and dreams any of us have that the Mets can catch the Atlanta Braves in 2011, paying Francisco Rodriguez almost $18million next year is not good for the franchise. Mariano Rivera does more for his franchise by a mile than K-Rod does for the Mets, and Rivera makes $15million.
If you look at the collection of baseball’s top closers in baseball you have players like: Mariano, Bell, Papelbon, Kimbrel, Hanrahan (in no order and just to name a few).
None of those pitchers make as much as KRod.
His job is to get 3 outs. He was over priced for his job and performance. There’s no denying that. KRod was signed because the Mets believes 2009 or 2010 was their year and all they needed was a closer.
That didn’t happen, so time to move on.
#5) Getting a save doesn’t mean you’re effective. If I do the job my boss hands me but along the way I make a few mistakes, but those mistakes don’t cost me the end result… did I do a good job? No. I got lucky. Did you know of the Top 20 MLB pitchers in Saves right now, only Brian Wilson has more Walks+Hits with 61?
Rodriguez has 60. Say what you want about WHIP. But a 1.40+ WHIP as a Closer is not good. No matter what your ERA is. Your job as a closer is to get 3 outs, and to get them without putting the game in jeopardy. Not to “make things interesting.”
Did you know that Rodriguez appeared in 53 games last year and allowed 66 Hits+Walks? Read that again before you try and tell me he was having a good year. This year, he’s appeared in 42 games and allowed 60 Walks+Hits.
Okay, so when Adam Rubin of ESPN New York says at the end of his column
“What were scouts saying about K-Rod? — Honestly, not overly impressed. Yes, he most of the time managed to get the job done. But declining fastball velocity made him more reliant on a changeup. He was far from an elite closer anymore.”
So before you assume that this has anything to do with Moneyball, Sabermetrics, Bernie Madoff or Fred Wilpon. Try and think about it in terms of what is best for the organization.
Francisco Rodriguez is not the pitcher he used to be, and his $17.5 million contract next year could not only hinder the Mets from offering Reyes a fair contract, but also stops them from attempting to develop a younger closer like Pedro Beato.
For Rodriguez’s contract the Mets could have Pelfrey+Niese+Dickey+Gee+Capuano+Ike+Paulino+Murph+Pagan and STILL have $3m or so left over!
Think about that. A guy who has the role to get 3 outs in a game is making almost double what Pelfrey+Niese+Gee+Dickey+Capuano make combined!
#6) Of the 26 closers in the sport right now with 15 or more saves only 6 of them were acquired via free agency later in their career. Think about what that says for Major League Baseball.
That means that the majority of teams with successful closers are either developing them within their own system, or trading for these closers at a younger age like Colorado did with Huston Street or San Diego did with Heath Bell (who’s career got started later in life.)
Those closers for your reference are Jose Valverde, Francisco Cordero, J.J. Putz, Kyle Farnsworth, Kevin Gregg and of course Francisco Rodriguez.
Teams generally are not looking to free agency to fill their closer role in today’s MLB.
I’m not sure if Beato is the guy, I still believe one day Mejia will be in that role one day. However, trading an aging closer who is making too much money and who’s talent is diminishing is not a Moneyball move for those who likely never read the book. It’s a smart baseball move.
The 2011 Mets have overcome the loss of Davis, Wright and Johan. All of which were more devastating to the season than losing Rodriguez is. Just because Rodriguez is gone, doesn’t mean they are giving up on 2011. It’s up to Terry Collins to ensure that.
What it does mean is we are seeing the Mets shed themselves of some poor baseball decisions and offsetting them with better ones.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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Great column. The Mets will be fine with Parnell and/or Beato closing. Takahashi filled in last year quite well. It’s time to trade KRod and Boros can’t do a thing about him going to a contender that’s not on the no-trade list.
thank you
Mostly agree except for #2. It think that’s a big stretch and/or assumption. Sometimes, guys do grow up overnight.
I’m not sure why the arguments about waving the white flag. KRod was gone by 31 July no matter what some may have wanted to believe. Don’t believe KRod’s closing out games in the next 2 weeks will be the difference maker this year. Case in point, the Phils are in 4th place and they haven’t had a ‘traditional’ closer all year. In fact, they’re on their 4th guy in that role in half a season.
Sure but the Phillies also boast four number 1 starters.
Very true, but unless each and everyone is pitching a complete game, if the Phillies are up come the 9th inning, someone is closing those games and getting it done.
You must have the patience of a saint.
LOL – not really. And ’07 and ’08 are not that distant a memory.
Watching KRod close games out was not necessarily ‘we’ve got this in the bag’ every time he took the mound either. He got the job done most times, I’ll grant you that, but with way too much traffic on the base paths. I just don’t see that getting any better as he goes forward and the more runners on, the more likely runs score in the 9th. It’s not then just the skill of the pitcher but the defense behind you as well.
You’re missing the point, the Mets pitching success is heavily reliant on their bullpen success, the Phillies get premiere length out of Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Their bullpen has been outstanding and with Madsen down Bastardo took his incredible job setting up into the closer role for now.
I don’t believe I am missing the point.
No matter how good those starters are, if they weren’t pitching in the 9th, someone had to shut the door. And for the most part, as anemic as Phillies offense has been, they’ve been close games. One after another ‘appointed’ closer hit the DL and they still got it done – even with that BP basically in shambles.
I’m not saying this will be our reality this year. I’m just saying it’s possible. And I still believe this gives the Mets a half a season to see if KRod’s heir apparent is already in the organization or not. If no, they’re going into the off season knowing what they need to get on that front.
KRod would have been the highest paid closer if that option vests. I just believe that money could be better well spent for the Mets.
It has not been nearly the revolving door that you are making it out to be, Contreras who closed for them successfully before went down and Madsen who has been an outstanding setup guy stepped up until he went down in Mid June. Bastardo has stepped in until Madsen returns next week. Phils have only scored 15 fewer runs than Mets for all the struggles, but more to the point the depth of there rotation does not put undo pressure on the bullpen. If the Phillies blew a game, say Halladay was pitching, they can shrug it off and toss Lee the next night. Things tend not to spiral with great starting pitching.
well, in my book, 4 closers in 1/2 of a season is a revolving door (I count lidge since he is the #1 guy, even though IIRC he hasn’t pitched yet).
And, sure enough, Alderson DID trade KRod! To the Brewers. It won’t even cost NY much—since Milwaukee will have to pay his buyout.
this had to be done. come July 31, they may have been comppeting with the Padres offering Heath Bell around and they would have lost. First offer, good-bye. I would be more selective with Beltran. The way he has hit, he should interest a lot of teams.
It is a total fallacy of an argument to say that Francisco Rodriguez option would mean the Mets could not sign Jose Reyes next season. Jose Reyes will be signing a long term contract, not a one year deal. Rodriguez option will pale in comparison to the total contract it will take to keep Reyes.
Point number six is not really a solid argument as each team in MLB does not operate under the same conditions. If MLB was like the other sports with a hard salary cap, it would be valid, but each team has completely different sets of revenue based on their location and ownership savvy and willingness. The Mets have the location and have had the willingness, they lack the savvy both in general business and baseball business. To say otherwise neglects the facts.
you’re happy because it gives the mets less chance to win a game, seem as it may, is a pathetic and embarrassing move, you talk about whip and all that, well guess what, the next guy in line is who? parnell and his 24 innings and 33 base runners?? or jason isringhause and his 28 inning and 35 baserunners allowed?? please loser, explain who doesnt have a bad whip in the mets bullpen?? who you want closer games NOW and in the near future???
I want someone who will get the job done who won’t be making 17.5 MIL to do it.
who??
Why are you beuing so hard-headed? SRT is trying to explain to you that K-Rod or any closer is not worth $17.5 million. For crying out loud we’ve had schleps like Benitez, Looper, and even worse rack up saves for this team. Why are you acting like K-Rod is one in a million?
+1
As I said above, if that option vests, he’s the highest paid closer in the game. That money could be better well spent going forward.
I love how every morning alex68 comes onto MMO to tell me how I feel. Without you alex, I’d never know my true feelings huh?
You understand that the 2 guys you named Parnell and Isringhausen aren’t making $17.5 million next year right? You get that KRod is and was over priced, and paying a closer more $ yearly than your 3B, SS, LF and your closer isn’t Mariano Rivera is a bad thing don’t you?
Never once did I say that on July 13, 2011 Isringhausen or Parnell or even Beato (who I did mention by the way I never said anything about the other 2) were better than Francisco Rodriguez. However, when you consider the price tag on KRod it makes perfect sense.
Oh and by the way since you asked
Parnell 1.34
Buchholz 1.12
Isringhausen 1.19
Beato 1.00
All have WHIP under Francisco Rodriguez.
again, don’t deviate from the question, since this is a good move by the mets please tell who who do you want closing games now and in the future for the mets that you know will come in and do a good job??
Who’s deviating? I actually covered this in the blog
“I’m not sure if Beato is the guy, I still believe one day Mejia will be in that role one day.”
In the future I’d like to see Mejia be the closer because I don’t think he’s going to cut it as a starter.
Right now, I’m fine with the Mets figuring out between Parnell-Beato-Isringhausen who is best for the job
It’s not like Luis Ayala is the 2nd best option here. Ideally I’d like to see Beato get the first shot at it but I don’t think they would pass up Parnell first.
Either way, I don’t think any of them will do so badly that it will make the Mets wish they were paying KRod $17.5 million next year.
Jessep, I’m hoping Beato takes the job for a few reasons. Firstly, because he has one of the worst strand rates in the game. He’d be more effective coming in to start the 9th.
Secondly, closers make much more money than setup men, obviously, and Parnell is fast approaching arby. If Beato saves 70 games next year with a .50 WHIP, they’ll still only have to pay him 450k. Parnell could make millions more.
That all being said, I’m on the fence about whether or not to give Izzy the shot for the next two weeks to boost his value. But if he blows some saves, his value will drop. Maybe leave well enough alone as far as he’s concern and take what you can get for his middle relief efforts.
. If Beato saves 70 games next year with a .50 WHIP”
that’s the funnier line i’ve heard in my entire life. but i guess one can dream xtreemicon..
alex: you clearly don’t even understand why Xtreem said that.
He’s saying that if Beato has some phenominal out of this world year, it still won’t kill the Mets financially the year after most likely
Xtreem: He could become a Super 2 though no? But still, your point is valid
Optimizing the closers salary as if this is 1999 Oakland is really a poor way to view this. The bottomline the Mets should count their blessings if either Beato or Parnell emerged as a closer.
trust me, i love beato, he’s got everything i’d want in a closer, big, throws hard, dominican. but sometimes you see how a player can’t handle the situation, and beato is just not that player imo. neither is parnell.. if i’m alderson, i throw in pelfrey as the closer.
Dominican? Does that make him better? Beato is American first.
Imagine for a second WHY he was one of the worst “strand rates” in the game. Because he is hittable the way Mike Pelfrey is, he can’t put away hitters with swings and misses. Closers who can’t miss bats are not ideal.
I also agree here. I prefer my closer to have a high K/IP rate. This is why I think Parnell will get the chance to be the closer first.
Parnell’s K/IP rate was higher than KRod’s by the way
I realize that, but I don’t think he is a good pitcher, I am happy to be wrong, but he is more Kyle Farnsworth than closer in New York City.
Strikeouts are great, but not entirely necessary for closers because they start fresh innings. That’s likely why Beato has a good ERA and the worst strand rate. The runners he inherits moves up or scores on outs. No chance of that when you’re inducing ground balls with the bases empty. Also, Beato’s batted ball line is impressive (13.8% line drives is really good), so the contact made is rarely good contact. And for what it’s worth, Brian Wilson and Drew Storen have lower swinging strike percentages than Beato, and Bell is very, very close. So it can be done.
so you want beato xtreemicon??
No, I want the guy who performs the best until Mejia takes over. I’d prefer that guy to Beato given the current options.
“I’m hoping Beato takes the job…”
fair enough xtree.. so, you basically want mejia who went back to being a starter and blew his arm to be the ultimate closer for the team? so 3 or 4 years of futility until he’s ready makes sense..
Where’d you get 3 or 4 years from? Who said anything about futility. I really don’t understand you half the time.
think about this, you’re waiting for a guy who will be out for a year and a half to be the savior? while plugging guys like parnell or beato to try and see of they can do the job? put it this way, this season is lost, so we will see 4 or 5 guys trying to be the closer or closing games this season. mark it down
You’re way off. Mejia is already two months into a 12-month rehab, which puts him back in uniform at latest the all start break next year. Get back in the groove the second half of 2012 and battle for the job in the spring of 2013. So basically, a year and a half with K-Rod doesn’t mean it’s without a closer, nor does it in any way suggest futility. YOU suggested futility, and you’ve made it very clear your suggestions are a little……….dense.
they are dense to you because you’re drinking the kool aid this fools are offering you. again, they will not be competitive for the next 3 or 4 years
‘they will not be competitive for the next 3 or 4 years’
If this is so, then why keep that 17.5 MIL on the books for an elite closer that won’t get us anywhere?
I really don’t understand your logic – or lack of logic.
Back in the day, and I mean way back, most closers were guys like Perranoski and Arroyo. Guys with sinkers and screwballks. Even Tug McGraw, although he had great stuff, got most guys out with his screwball. Oh there were guys like Turk Farrell who threw almost all fastballs all the time, but they were not the norm. Back then they wanted guys who did not give up home runs, and who could get double plays. A lot of times they came in mid-inning, with a lot of traffic on the bases. Of course, RPs pitched 2 or 3 innings at a time. I like K’s myself, in this compartmentalized league.
I want Beato closing!!!
In a way Boras wins. If K-Rods contract had vested for next year, Boras would not have collected on it. Now that he will be a free agent, Boras collects on new contract. I still don’t think he gets as much as if contract vested. Who is going to give a closer 15 million plus money?
Excellent post chock full of common sense reasons that even the most inane person should be able to assimilate. Yet the detractors still lurk. Sometimes people wouldn’t recognize a good deal even if it jumped up and bit them on the rear end.
It tells you how out of control sports in general has gotten when a guy like K Rod could make 17 mil a yr. Nobody in there right mind could say that this wasnt a good move.
let’s give a guy who’s another mental case and a record of 6-10 4.35 with 1 career save in 4 years a chance to close game here in new york… that’s exactly what we need to finish tanking the season.. money money moneyballin!!!!!
Yeah. krod was mariano rivera. Lights out closer who did super well in high pressure situations, did not allow any runners to get on base, and always had a 1 2 3 inning. Poor mets, they have no real closer now who is make sure they game is not blown and the door is shut.
*who is going to make sure the game is not blown*
I’m in the minority but im pretty much disgusted w the salary dump. There is no question that with his $17.5 million contract next year he is overpaid. One important factor to consider is his contract is for only ONE more year. One year contracts dont hamstring teams finacially. Everyone needs to get over his contract. Teams w no closers leave hugh holes. KROd is still a very effective closer. He is 29, career prime. Parnell has looked good lately but its a hugh risk to reley on as a closer. I do have faith in SAlderson but to replace KROD w a free agent is a 4yr $40+ committment(and LT contacts for any closer scares me), id rather KROD for antoher year and groom Parnell, if Parnell project next year didnt work then go free agent. If Parnell starts to look reliable make him closer, trade KROD next year and kick in $5+ mill. This move leaves Mets team this year w/out hope and prob go into next year w/out a reliable closer. His loss is worse then Wright and Ike combinedfor this team this year.
Also, althou KRod is overpaid, we have dirt cheap players at C, 1b, 2b, maybe SS maybe RF,were losing now $50million w Beltran and KRod Operez and Ollie contracts gone, i doubt we sign a bonafied player to replace Beltran, prob a FMart platoon..so where the f are we going to spend money next year ?? Reyes, who i love, but is always hurt for 7yrs $150mill? i will reiterate, speed is cheap, Reyes wont be, it’s a bad allocation of money for Reyes imo. Pagan would be a solid leadoff hitter.
I guess what im questioning is how are we going to allocate ALL of this money. Again i trust SALderson but im not sure if he is on the Wilpon ‘keep it cheap plan’, i dont know. It sux if that is what the Mets will be for next couple years
Also, im like most, not a hugh fan of KROd, the father in law incident, i cant stand his glasses lol, it’s just he leaves a hole that i think will keep the mets from being competive this year and likely next, it also is a salary dump where i do not think the money will be put to use anyway..hope im wrong and Parnall/Beato become homegrwon closers and Alderson has great offseaseson putting together a winner,, signed skeptical
this year will be a committee/audition process at closer.
next year, who knows? One of the beato/parnell types might step up. or it could be someone brought in (former closer reclaimation like Putz this year was, or someone unexpected).
While I didn’t want to pay KRod 17.5, I think point #5 is dead wrong. I don’t really care how “interesting” it gets, Rodriguez got the job done at an above average rate in baseball, and has done so his whole career. You kno what’s not “interesting” at all? Watching bums blow leads. I’ve already watched Parnell fail miserably to fulfill his potential for the past few years. Maybe Beato can do better, but I’m not jumping for joy that we have no capable proven closer. (I don’t count Izzy who seems like he might not make it through the year) And to use Brian Wilson as some sort of negative comparable is just not grasping the sport. The man continually slams the door for the WORLD CHAMPIONS, a team that wins in spite of anemic offense. Again, glad we’re not paying Frankie a historic #, but people have such short memories. We pissed away a shot at the trophy in 08 because we couldn’t close games. I’m not looking foward to reliving that. Don’t forget the team across town that plays like a real big market club gave a guy 10 million per just so he MIGHT close for them next year.
I really didn’t expect people to be PO”d about this. It wasn’t to long ago alot of people wanted him traded because of the injury from the fight. KRod was one of my favorite guys to watch when he was an Angel. He has been in decline since the Mets got him and avoiding that option was a smart buisness move. I don’t see how that can be argued. Chances are that Krod will be worst next year than this year and at 17.5 mil he would be a hinderance to the team financially and probably performance wise as well. The idea that any of us can look into a crystal ball and tell who the future closer is and how effective they will be is proposterous. Billy Wagner thought Heilman would be the future closer and I think he has a better prospective of what it takes than I do. I want to see Parnell given the shot but The sentimental side of me would like to see Iggy get his 300th save. Beato is a good reliever and I would not be upset with the choice but I do think Parnell’s SO rate makes him more likely to be effective. I’m glad to see the Mets changing their ways from overpaying guys with an eye on the hope of possibly making the playoff’s. This year their is little chance of a Mets playoff birth and I don’t think the subtraction of Krod will make any decernable difference at the end of the season. If I was the boss I would have made this move.
As a fan I don’t like to think about money and the cost to get or keep certain players. All I want to think about is that I see a player I think will help and I want my team to get or in this case keep him.
The reality is though that other than the Yankees (who seem to have no ceiling) eventually the money aspect does play a part in the choices you have as a team. As a fan I can afford not to care but the team that has to pay that salary does not have that luxury.
This is a salary dump plain and simple. That 17.5M was a ticking time bomb that the Mets did not want to deal with in 2012 so they dealt with it and got rid of it. One can argue the timing of it but I think most agree that with a team that doesn’t expect payroll to exceed 140M in 2012 but rather decrease the idea of having to pay a closer 17.5M was not in their best interest and finding a taker to take on that option that was close to vesting (assuming the Mets don’t pay that option if triggered) was not probably going to be an easy task so that they found someone to take it and throw in 2 bodies while at it is an accomplishment in itself.
What I will be monitoring in determining other than if the salary dump makes it possible to sign a Jose Reyes this offseason is who are the players coming back and how does the team do in 2011 handling closer duties.
I can envision the 1st BS the screams of “Oh if we only had KRod” and equally the 1st successful save the screams of “KRod who?”
This team at 1 game above .500 has so far exceeded my expectations especially when dealing with the loss of players so I would not be surprised if they handle this and find a way to get through it as well.