30
2011
Who Is Zack Wheeler: Nolan Ryan Or Oliver Perez?
An article by 
The trade of Carlos Beltran to the Giants became official earlier today, as the longtime Mets’ outfielder agreed to join the NL West leaders. In return, the Mets received top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, who was the sixth overall pick in the 2009 Amateur Draft.
Wheeler was ranked No. 55 among all prospects prior to the 2011 season, but moved up to No. 35 in the recently released mid-season rankings. Clearly, Wheeler is expected to someday produce at the major league level or else Sandy Alderson wouldn’t have asked for him when he traded away his All-Star rightfielder.
Right now, Wheeler has a slight problem controlling his pitches. Okay, slight might be an understatement when you consider his career minor league numbers.
Since playing in his first professional game in 2010, Wheeler has pitched in 37 games (29 starts). In 146.2 innings, he’s walked 85 batters, averaging 5.2 walks per nine innings. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Wheeler has also thrown 19 wild pitches and hit 11 batters.
Let’s put these numbers in perspective. There are six pitchers in the National League who have already surpassed 146.2 innings this season. Therefore, it’s fair to say that Wheeler has pitched the equivalent of what some National League pitchers have pitched this year.
Currently, J.A. Happ is leading the National League in walks, handing out 60 free passes this season. That’s 25 fewer than Wheeler.
Those 19 wild pitches thrown by Wheeler? That’s almost twice as many as the National League leader, Hiroki Kuroda, who’s uncorked 11 wild ones. No one else in the NL has more than nine.
Wheeler’s 11 hit batsmen would also be pacing the National League, as that total surpasses NL leader Randy Wolf by one.
Of course, Wheeler still has plenty of time to work on his control, as he is only 21 years old and will be pitching for the St. Lucie Mets. Still, one can’t help but wonder if Wheeler is going to someday challenge for the Triple Crown of Pitching (leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, as Dwight Gooden did for the Mets in 1985) or the Triple Crown of Wildness (leading the league in walks, wild pitches and hit batsmen).
Nolan Ryan was also wild in the minors, walking 200 batters in his first 291 minor league innings. Then again, so was Oliver Perez, who issued 150 walks in his first 322 professional innings.
Of course, Nolan Ryan learned how to harness his talent and translated it into a Hall of Fame career. Oliver Perez has used his talent to teach his minor league teammates which fast food restaurants are the best in and around Harrisburg, PA, which is where he has toiled as a member of the Washington Nationals Triple-A squad.
Hopefully, the Mets won’t promote Wheeler through their minor league system until he has shown improvement with his control. Yes, he’s managed to strike out his share of batters (168 Ks in 146.2 innings), but so did Ollie (554 Ks in 517.1 career minor league innings).
It is imperative that the Mets take their time with Zack Wheeler. In a few years, Wheeler might be part of a young pitching staff that includes fellow prospect Matt Harvey, along with 10-game winner Jonathon Niese and nine-game winner Dillon Gee. That staff could rival the 1986 starting rotation, or it could be the second coming of Generation K.
Zack Wheeler is expected to be a big part of the Mets’ future. For that to happen, he’ll have to put his wild past behind him and focus on improving his control in the present. Nolan Ryan was able to do it. Oliver Perez was not. It’s up to Zack Wheeler to figure out if he wants to take a limo to Cooperstown or a bus to Harrisburg.
About the Author: Ed Leyro
Ed Leyro was hatched in the Bronx, but spent most of his youth in Queens at Shea Stadium. Apparently, all that time spent at Mets games paid off as Ed met his wife (The Coop) for the first time at Citi Field during its inaugural season. Guess the 2009 season was good for something after all. In addition to his work at Mets Merized Online, Ed also owns, operates and is head janitor at Studious Metsimus, where he shares blogging duties with Joey Beartran. For those not in the know, Joey is a teddy bear dressed in a Mets hoodie. Clearly, Studious Metsimus is not your typical Mets blog.
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Perspective can be a bitch sometimes.
Keep in mind, the minor leagues are where you learn control. A lot of those walks and wild pitches are because he’s adding things like a change up to his arsenal. Plus, he is probably still growing. Once he bulks up some more, his mechanics should tighten up.
He’s got a 95+ fastball, a very good curve and is adding a slider. He’s not a max effort guy, so we shouldn’t have to worry about him burning out too quickly.
Let’s hope he can learn control in the minors. So far, he has improved slightly this year as the season has gone along. He doesn’t have to become a control freak a la Roy Halladay, but as long as he can lower his walks per nine innings to less than four, I’ll be counting down the days till he and Matt Harvey get the call (2013, maybe?)
If he has a 95+ fastball the problems with his control probably have more to do with overthrowing than anything else.
Yes, Nolan Ryan had some severe control issues AFTER he reached the Majors, especially with the Angels. Ditto Randy Johnson. How’d those 2 pitchers turn out? Ok, right? I’d say better than OK since one is in the Hall of Fame and the other will be a 1st ballot electee when he’s eligible. I’m not saying that I believe Zack Wheeler will follow their paths to the HOF. Merely pointing out that control issues aren’t always career killers. Look at Wheelers’ other numbers: 10K per 9 IP, .224 average allowed, and fewer hits than innings pitched. He has the Plus FB in the 92-96 mph range with excellent life and a developing curveball which I have read is a bat-missing pitch as well. He’s 21 years old and still developing. He seems to be a coachable kid who can learn how to harness his incredible skill set and mature into something special. I’d say this is an excellent acquisition on Alderson’s part and I look forward to seeing him develop over the next couple of years.
Looking at Wheeler from a different prism, let’s compare him with Sandy Koufax. Sandy played with the powerhouse Dodgers teams, beginning in the mid-1950′s. In his first three years, Sandy was 9-10. In his next three years he was 36-40. In total for his first six years, Koufax had a 36-40 record.
Beginning in Year 7, Sandy learned how to put it all together. In the last six years of Koufax’s short 12 year career, he went 129-47. He wound up with a 165-87 record. If Zach can be a Koufax, whatever wait it takes will be worth the patience needed. Sandy developed arthritis which ended his career. Some reports on Zach’s mechanics have suggested that he has a greater than average chance of significant injury. Maybe like Sandy, it will all be worthwhile.
The one thing I look at with Sandy Koufax is that during that six-year heyday (1961-66), he led the Dodgers to three pennants and two championships (he didn’t do much for them when they won the World Series in 1959).
I’d rather Wheeler be like Koufax in that respect (the championships) than anything else.
Sorry Ed but the Ollie P thing is a stretch.
He’s a young pitcher who is still learning how to pitch as a pro. In Gooden’s first full year as a pro he had over 100 BB
Will Wheeler have impeccable control? Probably not, but he has a long way to go. I’d rather just sit back and enjoy the fact they got a legit prospect. What Wheeler becomes is up to the Mets development system.
He has talent, now its up to the Mets to turn that talent into a big league pitcher
Can you tell I never liked Ollie? It’s always tough to tell with young pitchers. Hopefully, he won’t turn into another Paul Wilson. But as you say, it’s up to the coaching staff at all of the minor league levels to make him a big leaguer. Talent alone doesn’t guarantee big league success.
Sorry Ed but the Ollie P thing is a stretch”
and the nolan ryan thing is not??? is the writer of this article serious??? for that matter are you???
He has talent, now its up to the Mets to turn that talent into a big league pitcher”
you know how that sounds?????? i-di-o-tic!!!!!!
Ed–Young pitchers are always a total crap shoot. Hitting prospects, too. But with pitchers it always seems like the ‘cant miss’ prospects do frequently miss–and guys you never expect to amount to anything become studs.
Yes, Wheeler DOES have control problems so far. In answering your question if he’s the next Ryan or Ollie…maybe he’ll be the next Rick Ankiel
If he’s the next Rick Ankiel, does that mean Wheeler will end up replacing Beltran in the outfield?
Ollie, you really had to put him in the headline? Not want people to read this?
Wheeler is as all other in minors, a pitcher with “potential”; what other teams consider potential might not mean the same for Mets but Giants do have a track record of drafting good young pitchers so I say give him a chance to learn, develop his pitches and command the strike zone cause with his plus fastball, that is a pitch you either have or you dont’ and hard throwers are good for the roster.
Yes Sarge they have a track record…But that record includes bringing them up and starting them not trading them off for a two month rental which could say more about what they think about him compared to everyone else’s opinion.
The kid has promise, former 1st rounder but it isn’t like he is lighting up High A ball.
We owe it to him to give him a chance but lets face it this kid will do nothing for two years at least on a Major League level.
Keep in mind Sabean, the SF GM, had Wheeler listed as untouchable for a long time. The same Sabean who was instrumental in drafting and developing Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, Bumgarner, Sanchez, Posey, etc…. It might be worth the Met’s time to follow how the Giants are developing their pitchers in hopes of developig Wheeler in the same way. OTW Wheeler could follow in the footsteps of Vogelsong in 2015.
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In the long run….. Time will tell.But I hope it doesn’t take that long !!!!
I think it is too soon to compare a single A prospect to Nolan Ryan or Oliver Perez. Perez did have some highlights before wearing down. They include a victory in game 4 of the 2006 NLCS, a heroic pitching performance in game 7, and a 15 win season in 2007. If wheeler turns out to be that version of Oliver Perez, I’ll be happy.
why does oliver perez’s name always has to come up??? nobody talks more about perez than this website. the guys is a distant past, and why in the hell would you compare zack wheeler to oliver perez??? your gonna jinx the kid for gods sake.