19
2011
Trade Deadline Thoughts: No Thank You, Ubaldo
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Just about 40 minutes ago, Ted Berg posted an updated blog in which he makes a brief case for the Mets to inquire about Ubaldo Jiminez.
First of all, Jiminez is 27 years old, before he throws a pitch next year he will turn 28. His contract next year would pay him $4.2 million, then $5.75 million and lastly $8 million in 2014. His 2013 and 2014 contracts are team options.
I find it strange that his name is popping up on the trade market, and the only reason I can think of is that Colorado knows 2010 was his peak career season. So why would Mets fans or anybody want the Mets to fall for that? His salary is clearly not holding the Rockies back is it? So, Jiminez won’t be a cheap acquisition that’s for sure. Do you know what you’re getting for him?
A myth you’ll hear regarding Ubaldo is that Coors Field hurts him and he will be so much better at Citi Field. Really?
Using the last 3 seasons as a sample size, here are Ubaldo’s splits
22-21, 331 innings, 269 hits, 15 HR, 159 BB, 330K with a 3.56 ERA on the road.
24-11, 307.1 innings, 260 hits, 19 HR, 121 BB, 254 K with a 3.28 ERA at home.
Only this season is working in favor of the “Ubaldo is hurt by Coors Field” argument. I’ll take the larger sample size when trying to judge whether a park truly impacts a pitcher’s performance.
So the idea that Ubaldo’s numbers are hindered by the fact he plays in Coors Field frankly is not accurate. Plus, Jiminez is a groundball pitcher for the most part. His groundball to flyball ratio’s lean more towards groundballs, so the idea that Citi Field will help him doesn’t really fly with me. (Pun…intended?)
Jiminez broke out on the national scene last year, and since then has fizzled out. Sure, he’s had a few very good games this year, but he hasn’t had a season that says “Ace”, to me.
In the last 3 years, Ubaldo has allowed 809 base runners to reach safely in just 638 innings of work. One of Jiminez’s biggest flaws is his control, or lack thereof. To me, walking batters is the #1 crime a pitcher commits at Citi Field.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Jiminez isn’t a valuable commodity for any big league team. What I am saying is that he hit his career peak in 2010 and the Rockies likely know that. Why would the Mets want to acquire a player who is beginning his decline?
And forget about this idea that Jiminez is some ace that can match up against the Phillies. He’s had 1 season out of 4 in which he looked like a true ace. You know what that is? Not a true ace.
You have to think Colorado is shopping him because they know his stock will drop year after year. He’s signed cheaply, and is starting to show that he’s really the pitcher we saw in 2008 and 2009 and not the guy we saw in 2010. Is trading Jon Niese, Matt Harvey and another prospect worth it to you?
That’s even assuming it wouldn’t take more than that. You know it would. Would you trade Tejada with Niese and Harvey? You’re not getting an “ace” who is signed for a reasonable contract for a bag of balls. Colorado doesn’t have to trade him, which means his price tag doesn’t have to be lowered.
For me, I embrace the Alderson era because it’s not business as usual.
This isn’t a pitcher in a contract year, this isn’t a salary dump. This is a team trying to sell high on a pitcher who may have hit his peak last year. The Mets are not in a position to gamble on the fact that 2010 wasn’t a fluke. The cost of the gamble would be far too great, and it could be a move that cripples this franchise even more.
Acquiring Jiminez to me is bringing in a pitcher whose better days are behind them and I think I have seen enough of those types of moves to know they usually do not work out in the Mets favor.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
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with money saving sandy at the helm, i doubt he’ll be looking to add players, as if he wasn’t busy trying to shed out contracts.. no worries here, the man will not even pick up the phone, we got mike pelfrey
I think the Jimenez rumors are just that, rumors. Even if Colorado doesn’t win the West or the Wild Card this year (they most likely won’t), they are still in a weak division with a young group of players. Trading Jimenez when he is hitting his prime and has a club friendly contract makes no sense.
unless Colorado knows something
Even if, those are club options. They can decline them and either sign him cheaper or take the picks.
Something doesn’t sound right.
Jimenez is only guaranteed $4.2 million for 2012…Not bad for a guy who will only be 28 years old. His WHIP this season is the worst its been since 2008 (1.305) and its still lower than any Met starters’, and he plays half his games in Colorado. Anyone who would not want Jimenez on the Mets or any team is just misinformed. Plus, the team options in 2013 and 2014 are very inexpensive for a frontline starter who will be 29 and 30, respectively. If the Mets have a chance to get this guy…do it. Considering his salary, he might actually be within Sandy’s payroll restrictions.
Jessep, the team option for 2014 is only for the Rockies. If he’s traded, the option is waved. Just nitpicking there.
But I agree with you. If the Mets can simply “get” Ubaldo, sure. Like, if he’d magically appear on their roster then yes, he;d be an upgrade with a friendly contract. But the pieces to get him will be obscene. Rumors from the Yankees side says that Montero, Betances and Nova could get it done. COULD get it done?
The Mets can’t match that offer, and I’m not sure I’d spend that prospect value on a guy who had one great half-season. His second half last year was “merely” pretty good.
Ok hang on a second. What are you saying? That Jimenez peaked at 26 years old? You must have him confused with David Wright. You are also trying to say that if Colorado is trading him, it must be because he’s hiding an injury or that there’s something wrong with him? He has been a better than average pitcher for three years running, I doubt he peaked, and I’m sure the Rockies aren’t peddling damaged goods.
The last thing the Mets need is another player who is going to hang a millstone around their neck. Maybe Ubaldo looks attractive because of his age and salary but Colorado isn’t giving him away for free. It would take at least 2 key pieces from the Mets to get Jiminez and I think that would be a mistake on the part of the Mets.
didn’t YOU ask this yesterday??? the mets WILL not add up players, unless is the gustavo chavin’s of the world!!!!!
exactly, and after beltrans gone and they don’t resign reyes,it will be like 5 years before they start to win again.
by then, alderson will be gone and all the saber koolaid drinkers will say, well, he did his best!!!!
I would have to agree Jesse, and say no thanks. The reason why i think so, is because the Rockies will ask (if they are interested in trading him) for top prospects like Matt Harvey, etc. I think Sandy will just be like heck no, and move on. The remaining amount of money left on his deal could also be a deal-breaker unless the Rockies would give some cash.
As much as it would be cool to have him on the squad, i don’t think that this would happen even if the Mets were interested.
I love the fact that we’re gonna play chicken yet AGAIN with a frontline starter. If there’s such a concern for injury, then why are TWELVE teams in on Ubaldo right now? Namely the Reds, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers? I wonder if some of us were saying “No Thank You, Johan” a few years ago. Our top pitching prospects are YEARS away. YEARS! On the way to success, you have to make sacrifices. When are we gonna stop overvaluing our guys? I thought some of us were tired of this game under the Minaya administration.
This is Ubaldo Jiminez we are talking about, not Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Ubaldo has a better chance of being another Bronson Arroyo than Halladay or Lee.
Bronson Arroyo??? Really? A guy that’s a constant late 3-4 ERA guy? I don’t think so. For all we know, he could pick it up and throw like J.R. Richard did back in the day. When Richard found “it”, no one could touch him. Richard found “it” at the age of 26, the same age as Ubaldo when he (Ubaldo) put up a 2.88 ERA. You never know.