Sometimes you get some right and sometimes you get em wrong. But you make up your mind and that’s it. I’m sure that’s what scouts do. If I was a GM i would want my scout to tell me exactly what he thinks and be sure about it. If he’s wrong more often than right than he’s out of a job i guess but if it’s the other way around than I guess he’ll be a scout in demand.

So if I was a member of the Mets organization I would be projecting Ike to be a part of the future and NOT a 20 HR guy but a 30 to maybe even a 45 HR guy. Definitely a 40 HR guy. I think he can hit over 300 too so let’s say .275 to maybe even can possibly go to .310 or so. Can he have a bad year in his career and hit ..249 with 24 HRs? Sure it’s possible lots of great hitters have had inexplicable awful years but I think his overall career numbers will be usually be .270-300 30-40 HR guy.

That is not a guess…..that is me saying what he will do.

How long can he keep that up?

Working harder does not make the pitch less hittable just more precisely placed.

But if there is no one on base and no decent hitter after him there is no reason to pitch any better to a #3 hitter than a #5 hitter.

Being in the third hole only is better in that the leadoff guys (who you assume can get on) got on!

Then there is no room.
But is it any different of a situation when the #3 and 4 hitters are on base when your in the #5 hole?

Position is meaningless without taking into account what is behind him.

So position itself does not get harder or easier depending on your order only the players in that order.

What is much more likely is a Pitcher will not want to walk and while he works harder to throw a strike that can’t be hit it is much harder to do that because it requires the the repeated physical execution. Foul him off when he does that and at some point he won’t execute!

Point is, protection works both ways. Maybe it gives a guy easier pitches to hit, but maybe it makes the pitcher work HARDER on him for the very same reason people think he’d see good pitches. I’d like to see a study.

Maybe a part of Wright’s struggles in the third spot is because pitchers worked so much harder on him than they did when he hit 5th, knowing that maybe letting him reach base wasn’t that big a deal with Xavier Nady hitting behind him. Wright surely has his issues, but maybe the pitchers didn’t want him on base for Beltran and worked extra hard to keep him off.

He has two big bats (supposedly behind him)
He doesn’t need to clear the bases all he needs to do is hit for average.

If it’s strike it is hittable. it’s just that it could fool you into missing. Which is why you look for your pitch but your prepared to protect the plate until you actually get it.

Don’t assume what he’s going to throw just be prepared for anything.

If it is in the strikezone it IS hittable, maybe not that particular batter but it is in an area where the bat can hit it.

And this is where the fighting off pitches with Two Strikes I wrote about recently addresses.

If the pitch is not hittable but close enough to call then you must try and foul that pitch off and make sure you do precisely because that number I asked you about (how many times in a row) can that pitcher make such a fine pitch?

If the Pitcher is throwing strikes then you have the opportunity to control it by wasting that pitch and extend the at bat.

Just as the Pitcher bears down on the Batter, the Batter must “BEAR DOWN” with two strikes and be prepared to foul off unhittable pitches close enough to call until the Pitcher either makes a mistake by trying to be too fine or he gives in and walks you.

Something else did.
Lets look at the CitiField affect….

2010 Home 12 Hrs Away 17
2009 5 H 5 A (we will take these totals as an abberation of situation not field related since it doesn’t matter where he was that year they were dead even)
2008 21 H 12 A (is this where the lower HR at home idea started?)
2007 16 H 14 A
2006 13 H 13 A
2005 12 H 15 A

David Wright is not a HR hitter. He hits HRs so does Reyes, it doesn’t make them HR hitters!

When does he hit HRs?

Well 2009 says it’s not when all the big bats are out of the lineup and it’s pretty much just him!

His best year at home (2008) was all about who was hitting around him!

2009 Francouer 15Hrs, Murphy 12 Hrs, Beltran 10 Hrs, Sheffield 10, 47 Hrs Total teamwide not counting Wright”s 10Hrs! (Note for X – No Reyes only Castillo .387 OBP in front)

2008 Beltran 27 Hrs, Delgado 38 Hrs, Church 12 Hrs, 77 Hrs Total team wide not including Wright’s 33 that year! The Highest total he has ever had in his career! (Note for X – Reyes .358 OBP, Castillo .355 OBP in front)

What would have been the biggest change between 2008 and 2009?
The Field or the guys he had hitting around him?
What would more likely make david Wright a better two strike hitter?
Shea Stadium? Or the muderer’s row smaking rockets behind him?
What would more likly get a pitcher to throw a CAN’T MISS so make it FATTER strike with a full count to David Wright?

The Smaller confines of Shea Stadium? or The Hugh Expanse of CitiField?

OR

Is the fact that Both Castillo and/or Reyes was on base more than once every three times Wright would hit, and that it was better to take your chances on getting Wright out than it was to get out Beltran and Castillo? If your going to walk anyone it would have been those two not Wright!

davids problems have more to do with what is going on around him than him himself. And the effect on him is yes he tries to do too much.

Is that because of a Fence, Injuries around him or us just asking questions like where are the HRs when he is pretty much hitting them on his average.

baseball is a much a duel of psychology as it is an act of athleticism.

There are two reasons why, He isn’t getting the same opportunities based off the protection around him and when he is left to carry the team he presses and exacerbates the original problem of not getting the pitches to drive and swinging at the ones he shouldn’t!

Get a 30 HR hitter or two behind David and those walls in Citi will look like they need to be moved back!
Because he will get his HRs but he will never be Fielder OR Delgado!

I suggest we find a Delgado and not get rid of the one guy who has stayed to average whenever he had the guy around him to succeed.

And if he wasn’t hurt this very hot month which for him has historically been his best month, Who knows if we would even entertain trading him like we did with Reyes.

What about strikes he can’t hit? What about those pitches that are on the black, or the 12-6 curve, or the slider that starts out at your knees and ends up in the other batter’s box?

That’s what it means to bear down.

Do you do it by throwing balls and walking him or throwing strikes that he can hit?

In both cases it is the pitcher that makes the decision. But either way he goes (based on who is after him) it is better for Wright.

Either he gets a walk presented because the pitcher fears him or he bears down and throws strikes that david has a chance to do what he does with the bat because the strikes are being presented.

But what you say is MORE likely if there is a weaker batters around him.
If Wright is the only dangerous batter in the lineup it is far easier to bear down on him and save your best pitches against him because you don’t need that type of concentration on the rest of the lineup.

Since the other guys don’t hit you can challenge Wright due to the fact he still has to hit it out to hurt you. This is predicated on the fact that the other guys don’t hit enough to drive him in.

Protection doesn’t really dictate WHAT the pitcher will do, it will always be the decision of the pitcher. But that decision will be influenced by what is hitting around the batter as well as the batter himself.

2009 is a classic case of Wright being the only dangerous guy and therefore they could afford to pitch around him because no one wuld drive him in.

And when there was no one on base ahead of him (I believe protection works BEFORE and after BTW) you can bear down and pitch to him because at best your only going to give up one run.

So it works both ways, and who is in front is almost as important as who is behind you.

If the guys ahead of wright get on then you also have to bear down and pitch to him because there is no room to put him.

So protection is not just what is after you but what is before you in the lineup if you ask me.

All the guys who are NOT our best players isn’t it?

The CRAP!

Who is better than Wright or Reyes on our roster right now?

No One? Then there is no good reason at all!

What is the percentage of that happening when you look at the total of deals like that made?

Every year we see some big hot player get traded for prospects and out of the 4 or 5 deals a year like that over 20 years, how many times has the seller gotten more than they gave up?

3? 4 times in recorded history?

The concept of trading the guys who make your average talent higher in the name of getting replacements for guys who brought down that average never works.

All it does it make the team average not better!

It’s trading gold for silver and while you get more silver it is also worth less.

And you can still only play the best 25.
Only now you have lesser players to draw from!