26
2011
MMO Fan Shot! Mets Are Better Than You Think They Are
An article by 
A .500 Team? We Are Not Even Close… So Lets Trade!
I have seen this sentiment posted quite a bit as a reason to trade Beltran and “insert name here” many times. The chief argument being that we are 7.5 games out of the playoff race and have not been able to make up any ground in a month despite playing some pretty good baseball. (I’m not even going to mention the loss of Wright and Davis here!Oops guess I did!) The assumption is that we are not as good as the Phillies or Braves and that a 7.5 game deficit is proof of it. The Phillies? Well no one is as good as the Phillies (.634) and while we may not be better than the Braves in the standings, based on record in head to head competition we are 5-4 over them. But the standings say they are the better team, That is until you look back to that dreadful start to the season that started all the fire sale talk.
We opened the season at 5-13. Since then we have gone 46-38. That leaves us with a .500 record and those 7.5 games out of the wild card. But where would we be if we had not gone 5-13? Where would we stand if we were
.500 during those first 18 games? Suppose we went 9-9? Well that would leave us with a record of 55-47. Good enough to be leading the division if we were in the NL or AL Central or just 4 games out of the NL and AL West. It would also put us 3.5 games back in the Wild Card! Second only to Atlanta, who we have a one game advantage over in head to head competition, and tied with Arizona, who we swept the last time we played them. Is that really a team we should rebuild, tear down and scrap? Or is it the solid base to build on with pitching and some minor offensive upgrades at a couple of positions?
If we had that record last year at this time we would be one game ahead of the Phillies and 2 games out of first place(Braves). Did that Philly team become sellers and scrap what they had? Or did they become buyers and get part of the pitching they needed to win 97 games when 2010 concluded, winning the division by 6 games and then adding Cliff Lee in the offseason that has pretty much made them the best team in baseball today?
Well we DID go 5-13 to start the season and it can’t be ignored but just maybe it can be explained and dismissed as an anomaly. You see this team now has some fight to it. They do not give up! Even with two outs they are more likely to score a run than end the inning. They have a new manager who in April was still learning and evaluating his talent and now that he has had a chance to see and know his players he has them playing as good as just about anyone.
What lacked on this team was not so much the players, but the winning attitude and the fighting killer instinct. Want proof it exists? Well look no further than Jason Isringhausen last night who refused to give in and got his 3rd consecutive save since becoming our closer. This is a guy who was ready to give up and retire in spring training and now is playing some inspired baseball.
Some think this team isn’t real and isn’t really competitive and what they have done since going 5-13 isn’t real. Well if 46-38 as a sample is not real then how is 5-13?
We are a .500 team despite that awful beginning and if we had David Wright, Ike Davis, Johan Santana and one more ACE we might be even better and maybe even avoided that 5-13 start altogether.
Trading Beltran makes sense from a business standpoint, but not so much from a baseball standpoint. The guy we expected to play the least has played the most, and won many a game for us. While there are still plenty of question marks about what our team may look like in 2012, the time to consider what to keep and build upon in 2012 is now. The Phillies did that this time last year when they were 5 games out of first and 3.5 games out of the Wild Card. Precisely where we would be if Terry Collins had put that fight into his team before the season started and avoided that 5-13 start.
It may be too late to get back into 2011, but it would appear we have a fine starting point right now towards making 2012 count. We look at this team with the Picard suit and 5-13 in the back of our minds, but those situations no longer reflect the current realities of the monetary situation and those being seen on the field.
If the Braves could blow a 6 game division lead to the Phillies in 2010 (and ending up 6 games behind at the end, a 12 game shift!) merely by the Phillies adding one pitcher at the deadline then we too can make up 7.5 games on them and win the Wild Card. But we won’t do that if we GIVE UP on 2011, trade away what helps us win, because it would undo the main contribution our Manager has managed to bring to us since going 5-13. The FIGHTING SPIRIT!
If we give up then the team might as well too! And then everything Collins has accomplished so far would be lost!
This Fan Post was submitted be Metsie.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Nice post Metsie. You made a nice argument and if you feel they can make a run I have no intent on telling you to think otherwise.
For me though here is where I am in all of this.
Like you said since that 5-13 start the Mets have gone 46-38 which is six games above .500 when you take into account all the injuries it is rather impressive to say the least.
Yet for the Mets to win 89 games they would need to go 84-60 since that 5-13 start which would mean they played twenty four games above .500 a rather spectacular feat in my opinion.
Why use 89 games as a goal you might ask? Because as of yesterday if the Braves merely play .500 ball the rest of the way they would finish the season with 89 wins.
Can the Braves tank it and play sub .500 ball the rest of the way? Yes but then you have to add the other teams ahead of us Ari, Stl, Mil to the mix. What are the chances all of them to play sub .500 ball the rest of the way?
As far as looking ahead at 2012 I am not sure if I am misunderstanding but are you saying keeping a Beltran in 2011 means he will be more likely to resign for 2012 season?
I don’t agree with the notion that trading Beltran will undo The FIGHTING SPIRIT! you spoke of but still nice post Metsie on making an argument that it would.
Thanks MNJ, I don’t know that trading beltran will hurt them either, just pointing out that if Sandy and we give up on them they MIGHT give up on themselves as well. No Guarantee as maybe they rise again to the occassion as they seem to have lately and play even better. No one can predict.
As for the 89 game mark I agree it’s a big climb but not unprecedented as the Phillies showed last season. They were at precisely the same record as we would have been (with a .500 start instead of 5-13). They won 97 games. So if we played as well as they did from this point on we would wind up at 93 wins. Tall order to say the least and I am not predicting we will just saying it’s not unreasonable when you look at how injuries hurt Philly last year as well and one near Ace pitcher helped them accomplish a stunning second half to overtake the Braves.
I don’t presume we will do that nor do I think we are AS GOOD as that Philly team in the 2nd half. But we would be neck and neck with that philly team of last year if not for that lousy start we had at this point in time.
In order to do it we need to beat everyone they (braves and Phillies) beat and then make up our ground in head to head matchup.
And while I admit that bad start maybe insurmountable this year the reason I made the post at all was to showcase that with this team the way it is, If they avoid that bad start next year, we could be sitting precisely where the Phillies were and be AS GOOD as the Phillies were at this point last year.
They are currently the best team in baseball after losing Jason Werth and gaining Cliff Lee and that deadline trade of Oswalt they made last year at this time.
It might be too late for this season but they have proved to be good enough to build on instead of tearing down. And now that Wilpon comes out as a winner not a loser in Madoff there is no reason to pare down salary just for the sake of saving money.
But in the end all of what I said is just a big WHAT IF.
means nothing for this year. Next year is still the year we should be focusing on now. Lets just stop thinking about that 5-13 when we judge just how good this team is and we we take it from here.
I think that was the point I was most interested in putting out there.
Oh and no I was not saying keeping Beltran makes him easier to sign. But keeping him does help to win games this year and whatever it would take to sign him at the end of the season will be the same trade him now or not.
I do think though that trading him MAY (no guarantee) suck some of the life out of them.
I hope not but attitude and mental state is a very fragile thing. And as the engineers credo says…If it ain’t broke don’t fix it! LOL
As of right now it doesn’t appear to be broke just put itself into a situation it is very hard to dig out of. But the attempt might make them stronger and more focused in avoiding that hole they dug next year.
Metsie, I believe you’re chasing your tail with the this yr, last yr PHL comparison along with the if we had only started differently component; but I do whole heartedly concur with your presumption that building upwards not tearing downwards is the best path going forward regardless of how u reached your conclusion.
I can also unferstand losing Carlos to only a wave goodbye is a difficult resolution for many other fans.
Realizing both realities would make it paramount that if Carlos is dealt as anticipated, the returns being mulled about are insufficient to support both realities.
I’ve read & heard that the Plan B to acquiring Berltran among some suitors is the acquisition of the more reasonable acquisition of Hunter Pence from the Astros. Philadelphia is rumored to be leading the pack in sniffing about that alternative, assuming they can acquire Pence for what they can tolerate in prospects; I’d have to wonder if a 3-way sending Pence to NYM, Beltran to PHL & PHL prospects to HOU could be constructed. if so, it would seem to satisfy both positions of dealing Beltran for value while maintaining a momentum of BELIEF.
From a Philadelphis persperctive that course of action would be better than a straihght acquisition of Beltran which would enable their threats in ATL & SF to acquire Pence as their plan B,a 3-way deprives ATL & SF of both Plans simultaneously.
From a NYM perspective Pence is a significant upgrade for RF over Duda,Pridie,F-Mart & the presence of Beltran on PHL’s season ending roster would, if Boras follows pattern, preclude them from retaining him longer than the last few months of this Season. Of course, Pence’s current arbitration won 6.9M salary is higher than planned; but @ age 28 creates a triumvirate of talented ballplayers(Wright,Reyes,Pence) in meaningful productive positions all just entering their “PRIME”.
What do you think?
Well in regards to the comparison of Philly last year and us the point was to show the glass half empty folks that with 4 more wins in those first two weeks (.500 record) we would be AS GOOD as the phillies were at this point in time.
Both suffered from early injuries. it seems when the Phillies do it they are just fine and when the Mets do that all is lost. Phillies didn’t give up and there is no reason we should either thats what the comparison was for.
As for the Pence well why would anyone trade Pence for Beltran? I can see why if Philly is going to give up prospects they would give them more readily for the younger and longer contract of Pence.
If a deal like that was possible then it would be one thing because it fits what I have said in regards to getting something that can contribute immediatly as opposed to the kid who is going to spend a year or two in the minors and do nothing for us anytime soon.
If all your going to get for Beltran is a maybe then I would rather have that Maybe be about Carlos resigning and a continuance of playing hard this season than some kid that is a hope to becoming good.
Wether we like how he goes about it or not Carlos IS the ONLY leader we have as a regular position player. (Izzy may serve that in the Pen and Sanatan in the rotation).
Wright can’t seem to do it. Bay doesn’t have the performance to, Reyes is a Kid at heart and is never SERIOUS, Davis is hurt and even when he isn’t he is still too young. There HAS to be some veteran that can be here and turned to when some form of leadership is needed.
Pence certainly doesn’t fit that bill.
The Phillies persevere the way they do because they have Rollins and Utley, Who will be our version of either one once Beltran is gone? Paulino? Willie Harris?
Youth movement is nice but don’t you think we have more than enough youth already and it makes sense to keep at least one Vet (who DOES perform) to keep them all focused and on an even keel?
If Kids and youth were the answer to all problems then Veterans would not have jobs in the MLB.
You need one Mentor that those Kids can turn to and without beltran that will not be the case.
So whatever you think we might gain is going to be totally offset by the loss of that needed leadership!
As little as we percieve it is it does exist and won’t once Beltran is gone!
Metsie, I believe the actual reason why Philly doesn’t stall due to major injuries is primarily because whie we were being led by Phillips’ they were creating a very deep farm system & we weren’t, while Omar was fritting away first round selections, they were collecting more & more high quality talent inmproving by promoting late, well vetted farm products as J-Roll debuted @ age 22, Hamels @ 23 & Utley & Howard @ 25. No rushing. no comparisons to nearby clubs with better competitive records as they are over 90 miles from the nearest superior example not alongside competing for sports spending. There was no fan uproar over being feted as the “MOST LOSING BASEBALL FRANCHISE IN HISTORY” nor was there ever any clamor to spend lavishly on the best F/A available(to date Thome is their most significant F/A acquisition in 2003)for decades they languished relaxing in the overlooked category in a city where FOOTBALL,BASKETBALL,HOCKEY all took precedence; until 2006 there was no constant reminder near at hand as to their overall ineffectiveness. the lack of imperative gave them the oportunity to amass depth at a substantial talent level while no one(fans) was vehemently screaming Even today, few realize that our 25 yr drought in Titles is dwarfed by the one Phl experienced prior to ’08, 1980 28 yrs. The lack of pressure in a non MLBcentric atmosphere allows for the luxury to bide one’s time in prommoting top prospects late & accepting mediocrity as temporary solutions.
Dude we are no longer being led by Phillips.
They didn’t stall last year and were only 3 games better at this point last year than we are now!
Philliy frittered away AS MANY 1st round picks as Omar did.
Philly Last Years Division winner was only 3 games better than we are right now!
Did they sell and rebuild?
Sure there is a fan uproar that we are the worst franchise in baseball history…
because of 5-13 not what has happened since then…
And they are WRONG!
We are not the worst franchise in baseball history, we are three games worse than Last year’s division winner (97 games) was on this date just one year ago!
They were buyers and we are sellers…If you really believe they know what they are doing then it makes no sense to do the opposite of what they did last year does it?
Metsie Re Phillips’ effect on current leadership my response is YES & NO.
As we’re still mired in the shllow depth issues he designed. He was the single most influential baseball executive in training of & molding of our present day C.Uh.Oh, Jeffrey Wilpon, the ‘PRIDE’of Palm Beach Community College
seems Jeff was taught his disdain for DEVELOPMENT INVESTING from “THE MASTER”
THANK YOU!!!! believe!!!! i don’t give a f*** if we are 100 games out, as long as we ply 61 games i will still say we got a chance!!!! ppl like donalickety, jesseP, agee, my biggest fan hitman don’t want this team to do well or don’t believe, they gush about the braves and their players, while s*** on the upcoming mets, while gee is a revelation at 9-3 to us believers to jesseP he’s a mediocre pitcher but brandon beachy at 3-2 3.35 is a SERIOUS CONTENDER to win the ROY, while donalickey backs him up saying “wins don’t matter”.. but if is gee at 3-2 3.34 and one of us makes a comment that he will be good or somwthing god help us, news for you f*ing clowns, this here is a mets blog, if you are braves fans go the hell away, is amaing how you all suck the braves ***** and poop on the mets as a team and their players yet love sandy alderson who’s done crap about helping this team, ironic isn’t it? i understand why bayonne would take his time to insults you, and i am not supporting in any way what he did, but i understand how one can grow to be impation with losers like yourselves who claim to be fans yet don’t love the team for what we have, is one thing to criticize our players, but to gush over other team is plain pathetic, you should be the ones banned from this site for being a bunch of idiots, yes mike pelfrey sucks, yes parnell may suck, but i will never root for another team to f*ing beat us or to get better to beat us.. amazing!!!!!!!
Well I would temper your enthusiasm Alex…
As I said it may well be too late for this year. As good as we are we still need Atlanta or any of the other teams to go on a losing streak (hopefully losing to us!) to make this year a race.
The point I was making is that what is done is done. What was is different.
Wilpons are not broke as many believed when they made their minds up. We are not a 5-13 team when many cashed in their season and decided no point to watch anymore.
While many fans have given up, the team itself has not! It may if we proceed as if the Wilpons lost a billion dollars in a now defunct lawsuit or we weheel and deal as if that 5-13 team is the same one playing tonite.
It would take a miracle to win the Wildcard and maybe a lazarus visit from Jesus himself to get close to the Division title.
Doing that or believing that will happen is not what is the most important thing we should be considering right now.
No matter what you believe 2012 is the target at this point. Do we tear down what we have or build upon it because it appears to be a solid base.
We are likely to trade Beltran, for what, seems to be the only unknown. The question is do we go for some kid or do we sweeten the pot to get something that helps avoid that 5-13 start next year. Something that doesn’t require inspired play to win 55 games at the deadline, something that makes winning 97 games not such a stretch of the imagination?
This is the moment we have all waited for…
Which way does Sandy go?
Build or re-build.
And I think we are closer to build than re-build.
What happens this year is irrelevent, What we do this year towards next year is now the most important decision we face. And if the way they play now is any indication we are much closer than anyone is giving us credit for or has since the season started and thet 5-13 start made us all give up.
I love the positive spin you put on everything alex.
Yup, you have REALLY have had faith in this team after saying stuff all year like…
“pagan, the most overrated met after #5″
“wright for felix!” (While Wright was on the DL)
You are the biggest two-faced POS on this site. NOW you want to cheer for the Mets when you’ve been crapping on them all year. Amazing how the tide turns between the realists and imbeciles like yourself.
and i stand by, unless pagan proves me wrong like murphy has, and dwright comes trough as the leader he claims he is, i will keep saying it, felix fills our biggest need which is pitching, so he makes us better than wright does automatically. i am consistant with what i say i tell you, and if i am wrong, i’ll be the first one to admit i was wrong, so far i’ve said in this website that:
castillo and perez suck = true
dwright is unclutch: true
murphy is garbage = false
parnell seems to choke under pressure = so far true
it seems you have a personal vendetta against me hitman, but again, as i stated to you before, i will be at the stadium for games in aug 6th and 7th, you are more welcome to come and see me so we can talk baseball face to face, i am sure that’ll give you a chance to tell me how much i suck or a POS that i am
“castillo and perez suck = true”
Who cut them loose again?
“dwright is unclutch: true”
If Wright is so unclutch, then you haven’t been paying attention lately. Why have you been such a chickenshit by not showing up when Wright has been getting big hit after big hit since returning?
“felix fills our biggest need which is pitching, so he makes us better than wright does automatically”
Felix is NEVER coming here. Stop putting that stupid little fantasy in your head! Wright wouldn’t even be enough to get Felix.
“it seems you have a personal vendetta against me hitman, but again, as i stated to you before, i will be at the stadium for games in aug 6th and 7th, you are more welcome to come and see me so we can talk baseball face to face, i am sure that’ll give you a chance to tell me how much i suck or a POS that i am”
If it’s one thing I cannot stand, it’s whining babies like you who say that somebody hasn’t done anything only to turn around and say “Hey! We’re gonna win the WC” out of spite just because you want to be right for a change. You beat a dead horse about players who haven’t been on the team for MONTHS and on top of that, a kid that hasn’t played an inning of minor league ball yet. It’s funny, you talk about Gee being a ROY candidate, but morons like you were saying that he was a “one year wonder” despite how he did last September before the year started…quite like you complain about Nimmo. You say you support this team, but in reality, you just want players to fail just because of the GM.
You actually think I’m gonna waste my time & money on a loser like you? You have more screws loose than I thought.
“i don’t give a f*** if we are 100 games out, as long as we ply 61 games i will still say we got a chance!!!!”
Alex, opinions are personal, but the laws of arithmetic aren’t.
i meant to say 60 games out..
Your article gives me hope for 2012. None of our players have given up on this season. The young guys are getting better, and if we resign Reyes and have Ike Davis and Santana back with Wright healthy we have the keys to build a team around them. Sure their may be some off season trades to get a legitimate closer (Izzy looks fine for now) but ant trades will stengthen this team. I can see us as a wild card team in ’12!
where was this “killer instinct” at 5-13?
In the manager who had less than a month to install it into his team!
And in some cases in those Minor Leagues everyone said was full of scrubs!
I’m glad you Pointed that out most of our call-ups have played well above expectations.
Metsie, great points as usual. But I’m a little surprised at, and frankly have to disagree with, the last part about the fighting spirit. If the players remaining after the trades pack it in, then they don’t deserve to be major leaguers. I would almost argue that those with spots in the lineup are auditioning for next year. Pagan, Turner and Murphy come to mind.
When K-Rod was traded, Collins was asked his thoughts on whether or not the team would give up and not play hard, or something to that effect. Collins answered that if these players won’t play hard, he’d find some that will, or something to that effect. Then we all waxed poetic on what a gem of a manager Sandy hired and how great he is. Now you’ve all but assured he’d lose the entire team if Beltran is traded.
I think trading Beltran is the right thing to for various reasons, but I have no doubt that the players on the field will play to their fullest potential, whether or not that happens.
You are correct and so is Collins. If they lose it over a trade of Beltran then they probably would lose it sooner or later. Or never really had it to begin with.
But part of developing talent is to develop that fighting instinct.
Just as in Martial Arts it’s not the moves that make you deadly it is the practice, conditioning, the repetition of PROCCESS that instills the instinctual, REACTIONARY response needed to be a deadly fighter without thought or foreplanning.
By practicing the moves you react according to instint not thought.
Now we could get some kid for Beltran who has that but good luck, he is likely to need to have that instinct istalled in him as well.
But instead, if keeping Beltran conditions what we have to play with the same fight for the rest of the season (which for many would be an entire season save two 5-13 weeks) It might become SECOND NATURE and stay there for years to come.
Just as Rollins Bravado helped motivate those Phillies into that spirit way back when we were the team to beat. That attitude transformed them.
If keeping Beltran can make that happen here, then what we get for keeping him does more for the players we have than anything we would get for him. Trading Beltran might get us one good player we can develop.
Keeping him might help develop the 4 or 5 guys we already have! Thats a 4 fold increase from what we get in the trade considering what people think we will get in return for him.
If they do manage to finish this season with that fighting spirit then it is quite possible it will transform the entire roster to play that way and be champions next year and beyond.
Now that doesn’t mean we must keep Beltran at all costs nor does it mean there is no package that is worth making the deal.
But it does suggest that instead of going for kids it might be better to trade him and something else (Pay his Salary if need be) to get someone (SPitching or a really good hitting replacement) that will help us win games now and next year.
Not exactly a Sell and maybe not exactly a BUY. (We can always resign Beltran later if we want to.)
Thats different than many people propose but most of them made up their mids based on Picard’s suit and 5-13.
They would rather cut salary and build the Minors.
What happens to the guys who are winning/fighting now while we wait for that to pay off?
Truth is there are a lot better option to trade away that would have less effect and net us about the same in return such as Bay and even Wright!
We have done what we have without much help from either of those guys.
Trading Wright (and I don’t really say we should just pointing out some realities here) would open up a permanent spot for Murphy. He’s no David Wright but a big part of the FIGHT we have seen.
Wright could certainly net you a frontline starting pitcher if you throw in Tejada or Thole maybe even Duda and some MiL Pitching. Maybe a Carrasco?
Bay won’t get as much but he too is quite expendable and not a big contributor to what we have been doing.
Who we trade is not the issue of the article but WHO we get and target with whatever trade we make is the key here.
If we just trade for a kid then it looks like we are playing for the long haul rebuild. That (Not the loss of Beltran) will take the wind out of the sails.
And if thats what we plan on getting then I say the hell with it, trade Minors to get that kid and keep Beltran so that this team can be conditioned to fight for a full season and maybe that will carry over regardless of who we resign next year.
5-13 happened largely because everyone expected there to be a fire sale that included Reyes and Beltran and K-Rod and maybe even more…
Collins convinced them they could do something about it if they just played. he convinced them we were not playing for about 4 years from now we were playing for now. And they started making the game TODAY count!
Thats when they started fighting. And maybe if we can keep the idea that this team is not going to sell off and build the minors but instead build the Majors by trading what we have for immediate impact it might remain and carry over into 2012.
So trading Beltran is not the act that would deflate them. It’s what we get FOR Beltran or someone else that will signal Surrender this year and next.
I would prefer we make our Oswalt trade this year and then see what we can get in the offseason if Harvey and Holt are not the guys.
We are closer to the championship than we are to being the worst team in baseball.
And now that the team has finally showed some fight that hasn’t been seen since 86 I think we should tread carefully to see that we don’t screw that up just because we are worried about Beltran signing elsewhere and getting nothing for him.
Especially if what we are getting is not going to see the light of Citi for the next two or three years.
If losing Beltran helps them to maintain the fight in other ways then it should not affect them.
But if it is just a “Get Something” instead of Nothing I think that having Beltran finish the season is worth more to the players we currently have on the roster than that something we get for him.
So like I said it’s not about the departure of Beltran that would do that, it’s what we accept in return!