7
2011
Is Jason Bay Regaining His Old Form?
An article by 
When he failed to produce in his first season with the Mets, the fans got right on Jason Bay’s back and believed that his deal was a bad contract. His struggles continued in the beginning of this season.
However, over the last few weeks, the much-maligned Bay is seemingly turning back into the player that he once was. He has matched his home run total from last season in 118 less at-bats.
In his first 42 games of the season, Bay had just two home runs and 11 RBI. He was batting .207 with a .303 on-base percentage.
Then, starting on June 15th, things have begun to turn around for Bay. In just 19 games since then, Bay has more home runs and RBI then he did in the first 42. He has hit four home runs and has driven in 17 runs. His .329 batting average is also higher than his on-base percentage through the first 42 games that he played. Bay also has a .386 on-base percentage over this stretch.
If Bay kept up this pace for a whole 162 game season, then he would be expected to hit 35 home runs. This is close to the numbers that he put up in his best years.
In no way is this piece suggesting that Bay will keep up this pace for the rest of the year. However, it is a very encouraging sign that as of late, Bay has looked much more comfortable in the plate.
He has the approach that made him so feared in Boston. With Jose Reyes out of the Mets lineup for the next few weeks, it is important that Bay keeps up with his current pace.
While Bay is batting only .248 with a .354 slugging percentage this year, his recent hot streak suggests that these numbers should both see some significant increases throughout the rest of the season.
The Mets better home for it too, because with the way that they have been losing players from their lineup, they need Bay to be consistent.
About the Author: Robert Knapel
Robert is from New Jersey. He is currently pursuing Bachelors degrees in both Finance and International Business at Washington University in St. Louis. He has been a Mets fan for as long as he can remember. Robert also serves as an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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I want Bay to do well so we could trade his ass to some other team that is in the market for a wimp. We missed the boat on Matt Holliday.
With Reyes out we need some players to step up and carry the load and number one on that list is Jason Bay. Beltran cannot carry this team by himself, and sooner or later Murphy is going to cool off.
Relax on the “new” Bay. His BABIP since his “resurgance” is unsustainable and those four home runs are a mirage. Sure, he’s run into four pitches, but you know many other XBH he’s had in that span? One. A triple on June 21. He hasn’t even hit a double since May 19. His power is still completely gone and it’s showing no signs of returning. His ISO since June 1st is .132. That’s not good. It was .239 before he became a Met.
Bay is hitting good the last 23 games, so he’s going to naturally have a high BABIP because he has a high average. It’s almost impossible to have a high average and a low BABIP.
It seems like your just looking for a way to put him down. His hits are lucky, his HR’s are mirages……The way you have it, EVERY possible outcome of his AB’s is a negative.
There’s actually nothing he could have done the last 23 games to make you think he’s doing good. He gets alot of hits? “oh he’s lucky.” He hits a few HR’s? “oh that’s a mirage.” There’s nothing possible that Bay could do, there’s an excuse for everything he does good.
And to say his power has shown no signs of returning is simply not true. He has hit 4HR’s in 23 games…..not bad, and just so you know, a .467 slugging.
Having a high BABIP is one thing. Having an unsustainable one is quite another. His career BABIP is .325, which is high, but Bay was a good hitter. So the .360 or so he’s been hitting since his “hot streak” began is sustainable? All of a sudden, Bay’s gonna turn into a .320 hitter? And I mean for real, not for three weeks.
And yes, his power is a mirage. He has six extra base hits since May 19th. Four of them are home runs. He ran into four pitches. Big deal.
And it’s not the outcome of his plate appearances that are negative, it’s his plate appearances that are negative. I’m not gonna get a little sugar high because a guy who’s been terrible has been less terrible for three weeks.
My point is that you can’t argue that Bay hasn’t been playing good recently. In the last 23 games he’s hitting .311, with 4Hr and 18RBI, and just so you know, a .467 slugging. That’s good.
Jason Bay for the last 23 games has been playing good baseball.
It just seems like your making excuses for his play the last few weeks.
It;s not an excuse, it’s the real fact about his play. Just because he’s played better than terrible, that gives him a pass? If your kid was failing in school and he brought home a D, do you give him a present?
By the way, a .467 SLG with a .311 BA is just not good for a power hitter. A .156 ISO is where players like John Buck, Michael Young, Jayson Werth, Martin Prado and Danny Valencia hit. That’s the kind of power that satisfies you from Bay? Martin Prado?
.311, 4Hr and 18RBI, isn’t “less than terrible.”
That’s good – Jason Bay has been playing good baseball.
Sure, by those three stats. He’s a power hitter with a .156 ISO and he’s got six XBH in almost two months. But he hits lots of singles. So yay!
.311 4HR’s and 18 RBI in 23 games. If he does that a full year, that’s 29 HR’s – 29HR’s and .311 average are all star numbers.
The only number that would show you that he isn’t doing that good is ISO(His ISO sitll wouldn’t be that bad). ISO is flawed anyway, I don’t like how it’s calcuated…but almost every number out there would show Bay’s been playing really good the last few weeks, and he has.
How is it flawed? It’s the simplest formula ever. How can you not like how it’s calculated?
Simple but flawed. Since it’s slugging minus batting average it has the same problems slugging has. Which is that it counts a double twice as valuable as a triple, and a HR twice as valuable as a triple.
Which is all not true.
My mistake. Ignore all that.
What it really does is it has a double twice as valuable as a single, and a HR twice as valuable as a double.
Wrong. It doesn’t “value” anything. It measures how many bases per at-bat. If that’s what you think SLG% is, it explains a lot of what you’ve been arguing for months now.
Oh really? I’m saying the same exact thing as you said in your post about slugging%.
“It also pretends doubles are twice as valuable as singles and home runs are twice as valuable as doubles. Not true by any means”
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2010/11/greetings-mmo.html
and here’s what I said:
“What it really does is it has a double twice as valuable as a single, and a HR twice as valuable as a double.”
Sounds like the same thing to me, now doesn’t it?
You’re kidding, right? Why don’t you go ahead and post the quote in context. Or rather, don’t. If people read how you just lied outright, you’ll join your boy Bayonne as the laughable, comic-relief poster on this site.
I’m done with this.
That’s exactly what I’ll do, we’ll read both of our quotes in context.
You asked me, “how is it flawed?” And I answered. “What it really does is it has a double twice as valuable as a single, and a HR twice as valuable as a double.”
Here’s what you said about slugging%:
“SLG% is probably the second most important rate stat available, but I like to think of it as OBP’s understudy. It definitely serves a purpose and is important to production, but without OBP, it doesn’t really have much meaning. That’s because SLG% doesn’t account for the rate of reaching base, or not making outs. It also pretends doubles are twice as valuable as singles and home runs are twice as valuable as doubles. Not true by any means.”
So to sum that up you said, slugging is good, but not without OBP because it doesn’t account for the rate of reaching base AND(this is the important part) it ALSO pretends doubles are twice as valuable as singels, and HR’s are twice as valuable as doubles.
You pointed out the flaw with slugging%, and that’s exactly what I did too. I pointed out a problem with it, and it’s the same EXACT thing YOU said in YOUR post.
But I’m lying? lol.
I would just like you to answer this:
Does slugging% pretend doubles are twice as valuable as singles and home runs are twice as valuable as doubles?
I would really want to know because you said that’s what slugging does in your post, but when I said the same thing, it was wrong.
Glad to see that in Bay’s last 22 games he is batting .314 with 4 HRs and 18 RBIs…but you know what’s strange…he has not hit a double since May 19. Weird.
Bay is a streaky hitter, so, without Reyes, Wright (who had been non-existant anyway), and Davis in the lineup, he picked a great time to go on a hot streak…hopefully it continues for a little while longer.