Alderson Will Finally Get His Payroll Flexibility In 2012, So Now What?

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• Metsie July 22, 2011 at 1:27 pm

  Well Joe I will point out that no one really knows Sandy’s Philosophy other than he likes to look at stats and he doesn’t try to buy a championship.

  People forget Moneyball is 15 Year ago history and it wasn’t Sandy’s choice to use it to begin with. It was not his philosophy but more his method for dealing with limitations put on him.

  Before that he had no problems paying market value for someone.

  Where moneyball history was significant was if he had those same limitations here he would already have a plan for dealing with them but since he may no longer be faced with that pssobility no one can predict how much or on who he will spend those dollars he has.

  Resigning Reyes and maybe even Beltran would not be oput of the question. One thing to reduce payroll but not at the expense of having skill players.

  More likely would be that he tries to dump Bay or lets Wright walk to spend that money to better effect.

  So we didn’t buy a philosophy with Sandy what we did was buy a guy who is flexible enough to deal with any situation. A situation that has just changed DRASTICALLY now that Picard has capitulated and realized his blackmail scheme wasn’t going to work.

  And that was just a matter of time because when your argument is you should have known it applies just as well to the clients he was supposed to represent!
  • Joe D July 22, 2011 at 1:38 pm

    What I meant by philosophy, and maybe I should have clarified it better, is that he will continue to try and find value where he can. Regardless of wheteher you play in a small or big market, getting a good return on your investment is a good philosophy to follow. Getting Reyes to sign a five year deal would be a good value compared to giving him a seven year deal. That is where I believe we will see the biggest difference between Alderson and Minaya. The former had a habit of always giving a free agent more years than was neccesary to close the deal. Rather, I would argue it’s better to pay a little more up front annually than to risk having a bad contract or an albatross in the last 1-2 years of a deal when a player’s skills are in decline or simply gone.
    • Metsie July 22, 2011 at 1:49 pm

      Right but value doesn’t always equate to cheap is all I’m saying.

      The old saying pennywise and pound foolish.

      It’s like sure you can get the cheap version at Walmarts that has similar features but you wind up buying 5 of them over the same amount of time that you could have had ONE for the same price as buying all 5!

      Sure Reyes may cost a boatload of money. But you can’t buy that same contribution with that money without it costing you multiple roster spots where Reyes costs you one.

      Value is so not related to end cost in the long run.
      It’s more related to how much that money solves and the flexibility it gives you to improve in other areas.

      So by paying a Reyes or Beltran and getting what they give you in those two roster spots you now have MOST of what you need in those two spots and can look to improve and get more from the other 23!

      Without reyes and beltran you wind uptaking up 4 or 5 roster spots to get the same output.

      So like I say Value is a relative term and can be found in ways not related to payroll. The key to a championship is not based on what you spend but how you spend it.
      Money spent is not limited by the MLB, Roster positions you can use are. Therefore the way to get VALUE is to use each roster spot wisely. And if you do the salary won’t be important because the stands will be full, the seats all sold out and between that and all the money being made around those ticket purchases Reyes and Beltran will be making peanuts and worth EVERY PENNY meaning they are a GOOD value!
      • Joe D July 22, 2011 at 1:56 pm

        I agree with you that value and cheap are two different things. The old adage of you get what you pay for still applies. There is no evidence that Alderson was cheap. He had $8 million to spend and got $20 million in value from Isringhuasen, Beato, Paulino, Byrdak and Capuano alone so far this season. That’s what is meant by value picks. It is the essence of formulating a good club to surround your core players once you have established that core.
        • Metsie July 22, 2011 at 2:05 pm

          Put it this way and I think we both Agree..

          Sandy is not a dope, He will look for value as he should.
          I don’t think salary will be a major concern for a guy like Reyes. Maybe for Beltran.

          So far Sandy has done a good job and I am willing to let him make his decision and let the chips fall where they may.

          I just don’t feel his time in Oakland will be any indicator of what happens as it was not his choice.

          Some HOPE he does that (not saying you) other want what Omar did and that would be wrong too!

          I think Sandy will be right down the middle…
          Where SANITY exists! LOL
          • Tommy2cat July 22, 2011 at 4:59 pm

            The very recent acquisition of Mike Baxter is one of several examples of Alderson and his assistants being on the ball and brining quality into the organization at little cost.

            Moves like that will make it likely that Reyes is re-signed, Wright is retained and even Beltran possibly recovered in an off-season FA signing.

            I see our organizaiton getting stronger, in part through Alderson’s acumen and in part due to favorable developments in the Picard lawsuit.

            The Wilpons have rarely been shy about spending money. The question was whether they would spend it wisely. In other words, I don’t think Jeff Wilpon has any influence in Sandy Alderson’s office when it comes to making baseball decisions.

            Currently, I am very happy for Fred and Jeff Wilpon as I believe they have always had the best interests of the organization at heart, they just did not have the capability in the area of baseball operations.
    • any July 22, 2011 at 2:11 pm

      “he will continue to try and find value where he can”

      Well, this is supposed to be exactly what every GM does. At least the ones that run a perpetually successful operation!
• Mary July 22, 2011 at 1:33 pm

  Nobody knows what Sandy Alderson is going to do, but Sandy and whomever he confides in. Speculation is inane. Until you have some facts to publish, stop the insanity!
  • t agee July 22, 2011 at 1:39 pm

    What Alderson did 15 years ago in a small market has exactly the same relevance to us as what Bay did in a small park and a good lineup in 2009.
  • Joe D July 22, 2011 at 1:39 pm

    Using a GM’s past decisions is hardly idle speculation. History has always been a good barometer for predicting an outcome. I would speculate that the sun will rise again tomorrow, although I have no proof to share with you.
    • Metsie July 22, 2011 at 1:42 pm

      Yes Joe so what does History tell you about Sandy pre 1995? Like in 89 when he won the WS?
      • Joe D July 22, 2011 at 1:48 pm

        Metsie, just like you and I, people evolve. The choices we make, shape us. Our mistakes, make us better. Joe Torre was not the same bumbling manager for the Yankees, that he was for us with the Mets. Evolving is even more prevalent with a person like Alderson who is a former Marine and a Harvard grad. He evolved exponentially and it has shown so far this season.
        • Metsie July 22, 2011 at 1:54 pm

          Joe I agree and in 15 years I’m sure Sandy has evolved as well.

          But his change from what he did pre-95 and what he did after 95 has nothing to do with a change of philosophy on Sandy’s part but a change in the budget he was given.

          If it was his choice then you could say he evolved to accept that philosophy just as you or I would evolve to not go one a vacation every year because the money wasn’t there to pay for it.

          It wouldn’t be that we evolved and changed our philosophy about going on vacation. It wasn’t a choice it was a consequence of something else.
          Not a change in our way of thinking.
          • Joe D July 22, 2011 at 1:58 pm

            But that is the pure definition of evolution… evolving to survive in your changing enviornment… survival of the fittest.
            • Metsie July 22, 2011 at 2:07 pm

              Right but it is only indicative of what might happen if he is in the same enviornment as the history you are drawing from.

              All I’m saying is the situation is much different now that the Picard suit has been dropped.

              We will get a more normal action from Sandy than what he faced in that Oakland extreme.
• jdon July 22, 2011 at 1:34 pm

  I don’t think Pelfrey is getting 8 million off of the kind of season he is having. But I owuld not mind seeing him go. And what exactly is Pagan doing to merit a large increase? In my mind these people are expendable. Yes Pelfrey gives you innings, ut you can get innings and 8 wins without the agita. Pagan is a scrub. Going to arbitration with a scrub is insanity. These arbitrators are fools.
  • Joe D July 22, 2011 at 1:42 pm

    When players go to arbitration, common sense flies out the window. While the Mets bring up 100 reasons why Pelfrey shouldn’t get 8 million, the agent will show the arbitor 1,000 reasons why he should. That’s the way it works. In most cases the players win.
  • Metsie July 22, 2011 at 1:59 pm

    Joe is correct. Arbitration has nothing to do with what the guy is worth.

    If some dope from another team gives a pitcher with similar numbers to Pelf 8 Million dollars then pelfrey will get awarded 8 Million dollars in Arbitration.

    People think Free Agency was the thing that killed the salary structure and it is to blame to a degree indirectly.

    because some dope GM decided to pay that much in FA to a bad player all the bad players like him can now make that much in arbitration!

    Imagine every guy with Ollie Perez’ numbers making 12 Mil!
    What does that do to the FA market for guys who are better?

    It a vicious cycle and if arbitration was done away with (will NEVER happen) the entire salary structure would stabilize!

    FA drives up arnbitration awards and those awards drive up the top dollar you need to get the actual good players that are out there!
    • jdon July 22, 2011 at 2:33 pm

      I know that. I said it at the end of my statement. You let them go. I think Pelf might have a hard time, and Angel too, because I think you could show how crappy they have been, but it is not worth the risk. I don’t think so. We have to stop overpaying these loads.
  • Pete July 22, 2011 at 2:34 pm

    These are the reasons that I see both Pagan and Pelfrey as being on tenuous ground. There is a very good chance of them being traded, at least, it would not surprise me if they were.
• jdon July 22, 2011 at 1:42 pm

  I honestly believe that our present front office wants to get rid of as many faces as they can around here. This has been a losing organization and they want to find their own players. We have no idea how much money the Wontpons are going to lay out for salary. But I can see some major unloading taking place. I am certain that every time Sandy looks at Jason Bay he wants to strangle Omar. There is no one that needs to go more than him.
  • Metsie July 22, 2011 at 2:01 pm

    You just keep hoping that so the team loses enough money to get rid of the Wilpons…
    Sandy is not concerned wit who his boss is he is concerned with how good of a job he does so other owners will continue to pay him to run thier teams!
    • jdon July 22, 2011 at 2:36 pm

      Actully no, I am resigned to the fact that we are stuck with the Wontpons. I am glad we have someone like Sandy, who they cannot take a paternalistic attitude with. I believe Sandy, not the Wontpons, wants to clean house. Reyes might have convinced him that he is worth trying to keep. But most of the others are fair game.
• Rob July 22, 2011 at 1:57 pm

  Funny every blogger and sports reporter keeps talking about Jose Reyes getting 6-7 year deal. Yet every time I hear a baseball person being ask about Jose in an interview they insist he will get a 3-5 year deal due to the risk factor of him being injured so often and relying on his (questionable Hamstrings) legs to provide his value.
  • Joe D July 22, 2011 at 2:01 pm

    What did the baseball people say about Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford? Baseball people seem to forget that in a market economy, when the demand is greater than the supply, records are shattered on market prices. Many baseball people are not financial people.

    Pleasure commenting with some of you today, adios…
• any July 22, 2011 at 2:08 pm

  120 is much more plausible than 100, unless they somehow find a way to offload Bay too. So Reyes can stay and still stay in the 110-120 range.

  Plus, there is the option of backloading a little. Cliff Lee only gets about 12mill this year, jumping to 24/25 next year, because the Phils did not have payroll room this season.

  Payroll also has to be looked at over more than 1 year. If you are losing a lot next off season say, you can “average out” the 2 years if needed.

  Some of those other guys could go also. pelf, pagan, etc. Decent players, but not stars, that could likely be replaced for less, giving you money to invest elsewhere.

  And I doubt they trade Wright because they won’t take on his option year.
• jdon July 22, 2011 at 2:39 pm

  You may be right about Wright. Yuk yuk. But I think they will explore trading him. If I were a GM in say a Cincinnatti style park, Wright might look good at those numbers.
  • alex68 July 22, 2011 at 3:02 pm

    more excuses.. beltran and reyes are putting good numbers in citi field, can we stop making excuses for our all star 3B?? just produce!!! be the leader you claim to be!!
• Mr North Jersey July 22, 2011 at 3:31 pm

  If you go by Cot’s figures and if I calculated in the numbers correctly (Big If with me so be warned) in 2011 the top 8 salaries were:

  $22,500,000.00 – J. Santana
  $20,070,000.00 – C. Beltran
  $18,125,000.00 – J. Bay
  $14,250,000.00 – D. Wright
  $12,166,666.00 – F. Rodriguez
  $12,000,000.00 – O. Perez
  $11,000,000.00 – J. Reyes
  $06,250,000.00 – L. Castillo

  $116,361,666.00 – was about 83% of an estimated $140M Payroll in 2011.

  When compared with the 6 guaranteed payroll commitments for 2012 that are:

  $24,000,000.00 – J. Santana
  $18,130,000.00 – J. Bay
  $15,250,000.00 – D. Wright
  $04,750,000.00 – R.A. Dickey
  $03,500,000.00 – F. Rodriguez
  $01,200,000.00 – D.J. Carrasco

  $66,830,000.00 – is around 56% of a possible $120M or 67% of a possible $100M Payroll in 2012.

  Say hypothetically speaking the Mets do resign Reyes for less year but more money per year with him getting say $20M in 2012. You then would have $86,830,000.00 tied up in 7 players making it now about 72% of a possible $120M or 87% of a possible $100M Payroll in 2012.

  Let’s just hope that it indeed turns out to be more closer to $120M then $100M. I like the chances of Reyes being resigned a bit better at $120M.
  • alex68 July 22, 2011 at 3:45 pm

    MNJ, i like you my man, and that post was nice, but i hate to tell you we will see a lot of players with 3 million, 2.5 million and 1.5 million attached to the roster’s payroll.. that’s what we signed in for when we got money saving sandy as our GM
    • Mr North Jersey July 22, 2011 at 3:58 pm

      
      I wish there was something I could say to make you take a more “wait and see” positive approach to what’s happening with the team but I know I just don’t have anything that I could say that would do that.

      I guess how the Reyes situation is resolved will play a roll in making you feel otherwise if it turns out he is indeed resigned by the Mets.

      All I can really say is time will tell if indeed many of your opinions are proven to be right or wrong.

      In the meantime try to hang in there bro.
      
• chuck July 23, 2011 at 12:11 pm

  Get back to me when Lucas Duda hits a homerun. How does one explain that?
• chuck July 23, 2011 at 12:23 pm

  One more thing while Im all for free enterprise I wish baseball contracts were no more than 10 mil guaranteed and then incentive laden. Bays getting 18 mil for his awful performance is just sad. He should give most of that money back.