16
2011
A Look at Possible Prospects in Potential Carlos Beltran Deal
An article by Former Writers
If the Mets are truly interested in getting an “A” prospect in return for Carlos Beltran here are some guys they need to consider from potentially interested teams.
Detroit Tigers
1. Jacob Turner – 1st round pick in 2009 and part of the terrific high school crop that featured Zack Wheeler (who we will see later), Shelby Miller, Tyler Matzek, and Matt Purke. The Tigers selected him 9th overall (the second of of the group drafted) and signed him to a major league contract worth $5.5 million. Because of their big investment the Tigers have pushed the 6’5″ 210 lbs. 20-year-old fast and he is already in Double-A with the potential of making the big league ball club next year. Turner is the rare young pitcher that is recognized as a pitcher rather than a thrower and uses his heavy 92-94 mph sinker to pick up a ton of groundballs. He also throws a high 70′s 12-6 curveball and pretty good changeup. Not a huge strikeout guy, but holds his own.
2. Andy Oliver – A big lefty from the 2009 draft that has already reached the big leagues, but struggled. The struggles are more a product of being rushed and spotty command than Oliver’s true talent level. He has plus stuff from the left side with a fastball that has averaged 94 mph, a good changeup, and a sweeping slider. Just needs to fix his command.
3. Casey Crosby – Crosby lost most of his 2008 season to rehab from Tommy John and missed most of 2010 with an elbow injury that doctors never diagnosed because there was no structural damage even though Crosby felt pain. Before the injury in 2010 he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Has a 92-95 mph power sinker, outstanding curveball, and serviceable changeup. He is a huge risk, but is worth trying to hit a homerun on for Beltran.
4. Nick Castellanos – Was considered one of the best and most polished high school hitters in the 2010 draft and hasn’t disappointed thus far. An absolute monster with the bat. On his way to becoming one of the best prospects in baseball. Doubt he’s dealt.
5. Francisco Martinez – Reminds me of the Mets Jefry Marte with a little more upside. Quick bat, needs to get stronger.
6. Drew Smyly – Doesn’t have the upside of the players above, but is a solid lefty with a good chance to reach the show with his low 90′s fastball, cutter, hard curve, and changeup.
San Francisco Giants
1. Zack Wheeler – The Giants top pick in 2009 who signed for a mere $3.3 million thanks to his 95 mph heat. Usually sits a bit lower with his fastball, throwing it with two seams, and getting an enormous about of tail. Throws a hard curveball with plus potential and a changeup that scouts differ on opinion, but all agree has good tailing action. Has no serious red flag injury concerns with his mechanics. The results have been pretty good thus far. His K% and BB% have been consistent though he has gotten less groundballs this year.
2. Gary Brown – If the Mets do deal Beltran, Brown is right near the top of my wishlist. Brown is the the perfect fit for manning center field in Citi Field. He has plus to plus-plus speed and uses it to play a Gold Glove caliber defense. Has hit extremely well and shown some pretty solid power. With his speed and defense the power has been a bonus.
3. Eric Surkamp – Has been tabbed a middle to back-of-the-rotation starter because of his lack of fastball, but the results have been undeniable and say otherwise. You can’t compete with a 1.78 ERA and 10.65 K/9. Not to mention his 2.80 BB/9 and above-average command. He only tops out at 90 mph, but has a plus curveball and changeup. Vastly underrated in my opinion. Fastball velocity isn’t everything.
4. Brandon Crawford – Never played in Triple-A, but got the promotion to the show this year. He has struggled to hit for average or power thus far, but has dramatically cut down on the strikeouts and played above-average defense at short. If the Mets are seriously worried about Jose Reyes leaving he could be an option.
5. Francisco Peguero – Dealt with knee injuries earlier in the season, but has since recovered. He has plus speed (stole 40 bases last year) and some pop. Known as a high energy player that fans will love and another one who will look good manning the outfield in Citi Field.
Boston Red Sox
1. Anthony Ranaudo – He hasn’t been quiet as good in High-A as Low-A, but I would be flabbergasted if the Mets found a way to come away with him. He has frontline upside with an arsenal that includes a plus 91-94 mph fastball, 76-79 mph plus curve, and average changeup.
2. Kyle Weiland – Recently made is Major League debut that wasn’t so hot. He did show a 91-94 mph fastball and according to the pitch f/x a curveball, slider, and changeup. His deep repertoire allowed him to dominate Triple-A earlier in the year.
3. Will Middlebrooks – Middlebrooks is a very good defender at third base and his bat has been coming around in recent seasons. A big, strong kid who projects for some power, but struggles with controlling the strike-zone.
4. Ryan Lavarnway – The bat and power are terrific. Whether or not he can stick at catcher is the question. I like him and would take the chance on his improving D.
Chicago White Sox
1. Dayan Viciedo – Has just mashed in Triple-A. With his move to right field he can actually fill a position of need.
2. Addison Reed – Many felt he should have been used as a starter, but the White Sox have fast tracked him in the pen. Low 90′s fastball as a starter, mid 90′s in the pen, plus slider, and effective change.
3. Tyler Flowers – Stock has taken a huge hit in recent years, but he is a catcher with some serious power. Wouldn’t be the worst get.
4. Jacob Petricka – Injury prone pitcher who has a plus mid-90′s fastball, but that is about all. Working on a usable curveball and changeup.
5. Jared Mitchell – has struggled with the strikeouts upon his return, but the power has been great. Still raw, but there is a lot of upside.
Cincinnati Reds
1. Devin Mesoraco – The best catching prospect in baseball. He has power and defense. Cannot beat it. Would be a coup to get him.
2. Yasmani Grandal – Not too much worse than Mesoraco. Very good defensive catcher who can hit and with some pop. Much more plausible possibility.
3. Yonder Alonso – Really picked up the production with his bat. An above-average hitter, but isn’t that great at first base and is a poor defender in left field, which leaves him blocked if he was a Met.
4. Billy Hamilton – As fast as any player in baseball today. 129 steals in 198 career games. He is quiet raw and not the greatest shortstop defensively. Could move to second base.
5. Zack Cozart – Great offensive shortstop who can field and run pretty well. Looks like he will be a useful player for a while.
About the Author: Former Writers
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My dark horse is the Seattle Mariners. They’re in it, are in dire need of an outfielder and six of their top #3-#20 prospects (#1 is Pineda and #2 is Ackley, no longer consider actual prospects) are pitchers.
Xtreem: Seattle is interesting but I think Texas is more realistic than Seattle myself. Cruz is doing nothing, and the problem with Seattle is they are 9.5 games out for starters but also you have to put Carlos in CF. So it’s another one of those if they don’t mind him being a CF then sure.
But I don’t think Carlos turns them around in 3 months, so I ruled them out. They are a def. a dark horse for Reyes if he hits the open market. I’d say a legitimate candidate actually
You’re right. But to be fair (shameless attempt at defending myself), they were 3.5 out a week or so ago when the idea first occurred to me. They’ve gone 3-7 in their last ten while the Rangers have gone 9-1 and the Angels have gone 8-2. They were in it pretty recently.
I agree with you about Texas. He’s a great fit for them. Boston too.
I think two teams that could be dark horses are Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Atlanta would do it if they trusted Beltran in CF which frankly, why wouldn’t you? It’d be a tough sell but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility.
Tampa Bay is the team I like here. They are in the mix and could badly use a big bat like Beltran’s especially in the OF.
I really don’t know what they can get honestly. I don’t think we ever really know… but you listed reasonable possibilities. The more teams interested the more likely the Mets can get an impact player.
By the way I’m not sold on Detroit. Yes the move is their type of move, but Beltran doesn’t want to DH… do you DH Magglio? Move Beltran to LF?
For me also if Colorado can make a run based on their schedule and their division being weaker… they could be a candidate.
Nice job Nick.
Both Brown’s are boom/bust type players with teams facing offensive shortcomings. Wheeler could very well be tough decision for Sabean and one you would have to jump on. One of the Reds catchers would really be a huge plus for us but Beltran would have to play CF for them and with the age of their IF they’d almost undoubtably want to talk about Tejada/Flores/Lutz/Marte/Valdespin, possibly Murphy. Losing options and depth going forward could lead us right back into a 2009 scenario. Grandel straight up would really address a long term need and allow him to catch Familla and Harvey for a couple of years before they all get up here.
That’s the way I’d go although Bryce Brentz (supp pick for losing Bay) is looking great in both A- and A+ this year for the Red Sox and could help address another longterm need of ours in RF.
By the way, don’t discount Beltran saying “I’ve made it very clear to this organization that I want to finish my career here”
It’s an interesting quote frankly. I don’t really understand why he would want to stay here considering his history with the franchise and us as fans.
I still think he has to be traded. I honestly don’t think its in the best interest of the organization to keep him in the OF, he’s not getting any younger and if and a big IF they could get a legitimate prospect for him, they have to make that move.
As someone a couple of generations older than Beltran, I can understand the sentiment in wanting to stay put when you’re a short timer on the road to retirement.
He may only be in his mid 30s but in this business, it’s accelerated due to the nature of short career span.
It’s hard for most young people to grasp this concept. They’re still climbing that ladder to success, most would relocate in a heartbeat for that better job or better paycheck. To those of us on the downside of that ladder though, your priorities shift and that almighty dollar starts to take a back seat to what’s become more important to you. Especially when you’ve got enough money to take you into retirement, as Beltran assuredly does.
That being said, as much as I love Beltran and will hate to see him go, I think it’s time. I’d only want to take that chance for one more year and I suspect Beltran is looking for a multi year deal. With his knees, it’s too risky. Better to part ways maybe one year too early rather than one year too late. I think the days of older broken down OFs being signed with the premise of crossing your fingers they can play 150 games should be over. We’ve done that and failed.
Here’s hoping that prospect Sandy will be trying to secure works out.
By the way (I realize I’m chatting with myself haha)
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/6773844/new-york-mets-carlos-beltran-want-finish-my-career-here
There’s an interesting part about Brian Wilson in that article. Wilson basically says he’d love to have Beltran but Beltran says he didn’t chat with Wilson or any Giants player on the flight to Arizona that they shared?
Right. C’mon… you’re gonna tell me at no point in a flight (chartered plane just for them) did the quirky Brian Wilson talk to Carlos Beltran at all? Really?
This was a great post. I hope we deal him to the Giants because if there’s a chance we could get Wheeler we should jump on it. Most teamms would never trade a top young arm, but the Giants are stacked with young arms. It is their strength. Very nice job on this post.
You hardly ever hear about Anthony Ranaudo anymore, much like tghe Mets’ Brad Holt. I know we need pitching, but as you can see it’s so hard to predict success for these pitching prospects. We are losing a TON OF OFFENSE in Beltran and for a team that cant score enough runs with him, imagine what it will be like without him. We should be securing the best major league power bat to man right field. I cant even imagine the horror of seeing Wright batting third and Bay batting cleanup for the rest of this season and all of next season. We need a huge power bat. Oh and if Davis has microfracture surgery on his ankle, it’s a 12-18 month recovery.
Hey, thanks for the info. This was great. Not sure Beltran can play CF. His baserunning has been good, but he looks more tentative running in the OF. That is understandable. You don’t really worry about little depressions and bumps when you run on the basepaths. I am not sure he could do CF at this point. But of course, who cares? If they think he can do it, that might make him worth more.
I like the idea of Brown. I cannot see the mets playing with agan as their CF for the next few years. To me he is a reserve. Talent (speed), but no plate discipline. He really is a bit of a shoddy CF. I only saw Brown bat once at the Futures game and he got a bloop hit. But IF what you say is true he really fits a need. How far away is he?
Pagan has no plate discipline? That’s news to me considering he has more walks than strikeouts.
[...] Mets Merized Online takes a look at the prospects the Mets could get in return for Carlos Beltran. [...]
Nick,
GREAT post and thank you for all the information and research, this is extremely useful.
I’m a pitching freak – Ranaudo, Wheeler would be excellent but there are some great non pitching prospects up there.