20
2011
Watch What You Do
An article by 
Here are my thoughts on teams being buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. As long as you are well within ten games of a Wild Card you should NOT be sellers. Not when there’s still a third of a season left to play. Remember 1973.
If you do start selling off players at that stage of the game, then essentially you have given up and are waving the white flag. It means that winning is not high on your list of priorities, and that you condone a losing mentality. It means that you’ve given up on your current players who battle for you everyday, and on your most loyal fans who still flock to the ballpark to root for them.
If you do take that approach, then the fans should not be ostracized for giving up on the team and staying home. Afterall, you gave up on us first. Just as a manager should be fired if he gives up the will and desire to win, so should a front office be ousted for doing that same thing. This is New York and that’s how we roll.
Joel Sherman of the NY Post elaborated on the pros and cons of being buyers and sellers this weekend. Mind you, this is the same person who has been calling for a Mets fire sale since the first week of April, so take anything he says with a ton of salt.
Do you believe in the Pittsburgh Pirates? That is a question mainly for Mets fans. If you don’t believe in the Pirates, why should anyone believe in the Mets? They have similar records and similar run differentials. So if you believe in the Mets, you should believe in the Pirates, right?
This is mainly offered as an exercise in clear thinking as the July 31 trade deadline nears. I am asking Mets fans to see the team’s condition with their heads rather than their hearts.So if the Mets have roughly the same chance of reaching the postseason as the Pirates, then shouldn’t they be trade sellers?
Sherman also quotes an American League executive who said the Mets’ only choice is to sell. “They shouldn’t lie to their fan base. They have too many long-term problems, and they have a bottom-five farm system that must be upgraded. The best offer they get for Jose Reyes, they should take that. The first real good offer they get for Francisco Rodriguez, they must take it even if they have to pay down a lot of the contract. They cannot let that contract vest on their watch.”
Maybe I’m just a little soft in the brain because I still can’t understand how trading Jose Reyes and improving the team can fit into the same sentence. Who in their right mind actually believes that? I also don’t see the why locking up your 28-year old homegrown star to a longterm deal is such a death-knell to this team’s future. I thought that all great franchises and organizations locked up their best players. Has baseball really changed that much?
Do you think the Braves or Yankees would have won over a dozen division titles in a row if they never committed 15 years to Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera? And yet we’re gonna give up on Jose Reyes after 6 1/2 seasons at the ripe old age of 28?
What if this new front office does move Reyes, then what’s Plan B or Plan C or Plan D?
Sherman quotes another NL exec,
“If you are Sandy Alderson, you are rooting to go one way or the other and quick,” an NL executive said. “You win nine out of 10, you get like seven-eight over .500, now you are in it. You lose 10 in a row, you tank, you are out of it. Their current situation is the nightmare scenario. As a GM, the place you don’t want to be is that range from two-over to two-under. You look at your team, you know it is not a contender, but it is hard to tell your fans that, especially if your fans feel you have broken their hearts before.”
But what about this scenario?
What if Ike Davis and David Wright return around the All-Star break and both have a huge second half?
What if Jason Bay, who is hitting .312 in his last five games, begins to hit and finds his power stroke?
What if Johan Santana returns in August and bolsters and solidifies the rotation?
What if Dillon Gee and Angel Pagan keep performing as they have for the rest of this season?
Imagine if all that happens, but Jose Reyes is running wild in the Bronx, and Carlos Beltran is launching more bombs at Fenway…
Imagine if the Mets finish the season five games out of the Wild Card after the front office already bailed on New York and got rid of Reyes and Beltran…
Wouldn’t that just burn you up?
Would you ever believe this front office is committed to winning if they allow that to happen?
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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good article joe, i don’t know how anybody can say trading reyes will be beneficial to our team.
read 4 articles below this one and find many doubters
We’re in tied for 10th place in the NL. That means we would have to pass no less than SEVEN other teams to win the Wild Card. At some point the fans and ownership of this team have to be realistic and look at probablities instead of only considering the best case scenario cause I don’t know about you but the best case scenario rarely comes around for this team.
Reasons for going for broke include the fact that we won the NL East with 82 wins in 1973. Please, get real. The NL East will be won with 100 wins this year. It’s out of our reach. Bay hitting .317 in his last 5 games? Let’s go place a wager on that continuing. Johan being the same pitcher he was before getting hurt this August? That’s likely. The Mets with no depth, no margin of error, nothing in AAA, nothing really close in AA, one rotation injury away from Chris Schwinden, two OF injuries away from an OF of Duda, Bay and Pridie. Forget catcher on this team. Mike Nickeas anyone? Dusty Ryan? Soloman Manzanillo?
Sure it’s possible that everything that can go one way or the other falls exactly right for us and wrong for all seven of the other teams we have to pass but even if it did. What’s next? SF and their rotation? Philly and theirs? Atlanta, presumably with their players back?
Our farm system is ranked about 25th out of 30. What does that tell you? We should subtract what little talent we have to go for broke? If the idea was ever to compete for a World Championship every single year the choice would be obvious. Since it’s not obvious to some let me put it this way. You’ve busted at the black jack table 10 times in a row, you’ve got a 5 showing and a 7 down and your down to your last brass farthing with no other way to get home if you bust again. What do you do? Double up? If that’s your answer I’ve got a hotline you need to call.
to me, saber alderson will be run out of town, his “i’m smarter than you” attitutde doesn’t go well with fans in NY if you don’t win.. so far, his players hasn’t done squat and other than capuano “we’ll see” i don’t see a player he’s brought into the roster that’s helped the mets.. and next year it’s gonna get worst (or maybe by the deadline) if they don’t have reyes, beltran and krod and we’re stuck with mr excuse maker/mr unclutch/golden boy david wright and noone else to “protect” him in the lineup, and we finish with a 68-94 record, saber sandy will then say ohhh, i’m tired and old, then bolt and leave the mess to someone else..
Who has Sandy brought in? And who would have been a better signing? He basically filled spots with dirt cheap usable players. Give him a season or two to unf@ck Omar’s horrendous signings before jumping on him
“his “i’m smarter than you” attitutde doesn’t go well with fans in NY” — Specifically with fans whom he is clearly smarter than right Alex?
Lose Reyes and you lose me as a season ticket holder. Not going to pay filet mignon prices for ground chuck anymore.
lmao, peter, you’d probably be bitter and angry, and probably won’t watch the mets as before.. but i doubt you won’t be a fan.. come on, the mets have given up on gooden, straw, traded darling, seaver, etc.. and those were favorites of mine, but i’m still here..
What have you been getting the last few season?
let’s see.. in great seasons from 2005-2008 were contenders
2009 hurt, the team was crap
2010 was hurt for good part and the team was in it until oliver and crapillo came back
2011, 30-24 after a horrendous 5-13 start.. big reason, jose reyes carrying the team!!!!!!
If thats your idea of filet minion, your cookouts must end in food poisoning
Not contenders in 2005. they finished 4 games over .500 tied for third place as far down as 13 games out in September. They caught up because the Braves took a leisurely pace to the finish line. They were also tied for third for the Wild Card.
2006 Whoopee! One playoff run when the rest of the NL, especially the East, were crap!
2007, 2008, and 2009 were the inevitable results of Omar doing a poor job building depth.
2010 was one last gasp at his job.
2011, the Mets are 2 games under .500 because of the lack of depth.
and yet 4.5 games out of wild card, no ike davis, no franchize wright, no santana.. guess who’s supermanning this team?? who’s got this team believing and being better each day??
a current schedule of mostly lousy opponents? Yes, 2 of 3 in Atlanta is impressive, but splitting at home against the Pirates in not.
again, 30-24 since reyes put the team on his back!!!!!
Or since the starting rotation starting pitching to their full capabilities. They have a losing record with Reyes on the team this year.
Just sayin’.
reyes 69 games mets are 35-34!!!!!!
in wins mets are 519-474 since reyes was inducted in the lineup including those 2003-2004 pathetic years!!!!!!!!
“Do you think the Braves or Yankees would have won over a dozen division titles in a row if they never committed 15 years to Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera?”
Completely different situations than the Mets. The Braves were already perennial division winners when Jones became their fulltime 3B. In fact, by the time Jones hit 28, the Braves had won 1 WS and appeared in 2 others with him. He was part of team that was already winning.
Same story with Jeter and Rivera. It wasn’t just them. There was a whole team there already winning WS when either became eligible for free agency.
What you’re saying is you would rather have a chance at a one off playoff run that will most likely not happen at the expense of building a sustainable winner that will be contenders for a long stretch.
If resigning Reyes to a long term deal is the right thing for the team over the long run, then yes, you resign him. But you can’t just do it to make fans happen for a few weeks in April.
You win WS with four good starters and a solid BP. Jose does not get you to the WS. Teams keep getting to the WS every year and none of them have “Jose” clones. Forget about excitement. Winning excites me. Superficial excitement I can get from the movies. AT least some of the time.
well, for those who love saber alderson, then let’s hope for him to trade reyes for “prospects” then have royce clayton re appear to play SS.. then we’ll see how your opinion changes..
Remember 1973? I do. It was 38 years ago. I don’t think using one isolated 38 year old event to guide the current front office’s policies is an intelligent move.
If the Mets find themselves in the scenario you describe in your opening paragraph yet proceed to become deadline sellers, instead of meaning all the negative things you suggest it might, it could mean that the people whose jobs it is to evaluate the major league team as well as the organization as a whole have done so and decided that the chance of overcoming a 10 game wildcard deficit with one third of the season to play is not a terribly realistic one. It could mean those evaluators have determined that in order to achieve the goal of sustained organizational success from bottom to top that they are better off suffering in the short term.
The Braves and the Yankees are not great examples in my opinion. Along with Chipper Jones the Braves cultivated an historically great pitching staff. Where are the Mets’ Tom Glavine and John Smoltz and who is their Greg Maddux? They may very well be in the system right now in the presence of Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey. But by the time they get here and start producing consistently, how old will Reyes be and what condition will he be in? The Yankees produced 4 high quality players from their system at once and spent the money no other team cared to spend to surround those players with talent. Sure the Mets produced Wright and Reyes. Where are the third and fourth guys to go with them? The Mets may have brought up their Jeter & Mo but where are Jorge & Andy? And where’s the money to buy players to put around them?
What about this scenario?
Ike Davis returns but is hampered by a not fully healed leg and suffers a notable statistical decline in the 2nd half. David Wright returns but his large number of strike outs cause the lineup that is now clicking to stagnate. Jason Bay’s 5 game “surge” turns out to be a mirage. Dillon Gee falls back to earth and Angel Pagan is injured, again.
What if that happens but Jose Reyes’ stays and his career year is wasted here then he bolts for free agent dollars the Mets don’t have leaving the Mets with 2 draft picks, and Carlos Beltran continues his resurgence but it combined with Reyes’ superb year is not enough to overcome the club’s flaws and he leaves via free agency for which the club does not even get draft picks.
Wouldn’t that just burn you up?
Would you ever believe this front office is committed to winning if they allowed that to happen?
‘Remember 1973? I do. It was 38 years ago.’
I remember as well. What I also remember is 1974 through the early 80s. Not a pretty memory.
Decisions made mid year this year could have ramifications for years to come. Here’s hoping they get it right this time.
With the announcement today of Albert Pujols out 4-6 weeks due to a wrist fracture the Cardinals just got weaker and the Mets chances just got stronger in the Wild Card race.
There is nothing else to do but to play to WIN and to play to compete for the Wild Card and try to get into the Post Season. That’s what the season is all about and if you think you can contend and the Mets ARE contenders for the Wild Card then you do what ever you have to do to remain in the race.
Today the Mets chances just got better, they must stay in in until July 31 and hope to be buyers. This is New York and there is no other way to look at it.
nah bayonne, saber alderson might be praying for a 10 game losing streak to cut payroll..
alex68: Which sabermetric stats has Sandy Alderson used to evaluate the Mets and potential free agents? Please explain.
again, look at the whole body of work. the mets are will be buyers if we fill up the seats..
But with what? Matt Harvey? Wilmer Flores? You think teams are falling over themselves to get Chris Schwinden?
pretty much he’s saying we will reduce payroll if you don’t come to the ballpark.. also, isn’t he a saber head?? he said it.. everyone knows it.. keep drinking the kool aid just like many other mets fans, praising this guy for winning a championship in oakland, i could care less about that, win here and you get my respect, he’s done nothing and to some he’s the most interesting man in the world.. does he drinks dos equis when he occasionally drinks beer!!??
What is a saberhead?
sandy alderson, billy boy beane.. etc..
I’ll ask again, what is a saberhead?
Someone who appeared in a book most of them didn’t read.
saber metrics and geeks.. as soon as i saw that i kept on walking!!!
I always laugh when someone who gets all huffed up for internet discussions about grown men playing a game calls someone else a geek.
i didn’t call noone a geek.. and trust me donal, if me and jesseP were to be face to face, i don’t think he would’ve sound so smart i tell you that..
What does that even mean?
So then I guess the question is, what’s your definition of “saber head?” Yes, he looks at sabermetric stats. But you seem to think he picks his teams based on WAR and VORP. Can you back that up?
Alex68: Which sabermetric stats has Sandy Alderson used to evaluate the Mets and potential free agents? Please explain.
So far you haven’t proven that A) you even know what sabermetrics are or B) that Sandy Alderson is operating the Mets using sabermetrics
how DO YOU know he’s not operating the mets using them??? are you jessedePodesta!!?? he’s used it his whole life, then comes to ny with his reduce payroll/i know more than you attitude and you think he’s not looking at those WAR, etc..??
Does he LOOK at WAR? Sure. Does he pick his roster based on it? No. That much is obvious.
You’re saying he’s a “saber head” just because he LOOKS at sabermetric stats? Hell, if he operated using ONLY sabermetric stats, the bench would be a LOT different. And most people are actually wishing for that to be the case!
who are most ppl? get me baseball players not stats padder like #5..
still funny
How is it #5′s are stats padding, but #7 are not?
For the record, I do not believe either are stat padding, but how is it one is, the other isn’t?
Blind hatred – are you jealous or something?
I actually met david, good kid, chokes in big spots but good kid.. i also met david ortiz, ladanian tomlinson and brian urlacher.. it was a vitamin water event, i went there as a guest. he signed a shirt i have, i like wright, not a superstar..
Still avoiding the questions Alex
What is a saber head
How are one guys numbers legit, while the others are stat padding?
Most people are the people who read this site and go on an on about Harris and Hairston and Hu from the tops of mountains.
He used it whole life? Really?
“then comes to ny with his reduce payroll/”
Oh, so he is reducing the payroll. Funny, I thought he was coming here because the organization is such a mess and the payroll is getting cut anyway.
“/i know more than you attitude ”
What do you people mean when you say this? “he acts like he knows more than us/is smarter than the game” etc etc Do you just like throwing words out there hoping everyone just accepts them?
I’d like to believe that, but they’re just aboutt o get Holliday back. The reality is, the Cards have been without two premier players all season Wainwright and Holliday and now Wainwright and Pujols) and they’re still 7 games over .500 and tied for their division lead. I just don’t see them being a non-factor for the rest of the year. Also,Pujols will be be back by Septermber.
not fear the cardinals either.. the mets are better imo than the cardinals, difference is the mets play in the toughest division in the league..
That’s fair. But unfortunately you can’t discount the games the Mets play. The Mets may be better than the Cards, but they’d have to be a LOT better to make up the ground against a team in a weaker division. Are they a LOT better?
xtree-micon, 4.5 games out with no SP, no good bullpen, no all star 3rd baseman and no 1st Baseman… reyes and beltran carrying the team.. i have faith!!
No SP? While no big names, I wouldn’t exactly say no SP, they’ve done exceptional, or don’t you actually watch games.
trey, as good as our “SP” has been, there’s no true ace, and many of this pitchers are up and down.. only gee has been above 500 all year, the rest, well.. go and look at pelfrey, capuano, niese and dickie combine winning % and realize what i mean
When you build your team and your hopes and dreams on “what if’s” you’re setting yourself up for a big let down.
Last year the Mets were 6.5 games out on July 31st and they finished 12 games behind, and 6 teams finished better than them in the wildcard race.
If the Mets had won in 2006, or 2007 and Reyes were a pending a free agent, I’d say sign him to whatever he wants. But they didn’t, and you can’t. Reyes at 28 is not Chipper or Jeter at 28. Comparing him to them is wrong.
You can’t manage a franchise year by year. There has to be some sort of plan for down the road. If they go out and trade whatever minor league prospects they have left, and fail… then dark days will be upon us.
I’m too young to remember 1973. However, I do remember 2004, when the Mets panicked at the deadline and traded Scott Kazmir because they didn’t properly evaluate their chances to make the playoffs. I’m not arguing that Alderson should trade Reyes. I don’t think he should. However, Joel Sherman does have a valid point: you have to make a reasonable and honest evaluation of your team as the deadline approaches. If you don’t think this team has the talent to win NOW, then you have to at least listen to offers.
“Remember 1973″
Yes, remember a once in 25 year fluke season that allowed basically a .500 team to sneak into the playoffs.
“Remember 1973″ because it’s TOTALLY worth passing up chances to get much needed return on guys like Beltran, KRod Izzy and Capuano for a long shot chance to sneak into the wild card slot
“Remember 1973″ because that scenario so obviously plays out every year, we’d be fools not to mortgage what little farm we have to go for it. Too bad Victor Zambrano isn’t available
“Remember 1973″
Idiot.
Apologies for the “idiot” crack – uncalled for and I wish I was able to edit that out.
Again, please accept my apologies for that remark.