6
2011
MMO Final 2011 Mets Draft Probables
An article by Craig Lerner
Tonight’s the night Mets fans.
Here is the final update to my running list of potential Mets draft selections. To finish things off I added RHP Matt Barnes of UConn who is really moving up the draft board in the last 24 hours.
In about 30 minutes, we will find out who the Mets will select with the 13th overall pick in the 2011 First Year Player Draft. I’m betting it’s one of the players listed below.
Good Luck to the Mets tonight!
Matt Barnes, RHP – UConn
Who Likes Him: Keith Law, ESPN
The 20-year-old Barnes pitches with a chip on his shoulder. He’s hungry and eager to take his game to the next level as a raw, high-ceiling starting pitcher that will likely be selected in the top 10. He was recently named Louisville Slugger NCAA Division I All-American First Team for going 11-3 with a 1.12 ERA in 15 starts — becoming just the third UConn pitcher to win 10 or more games during a single season. The 6-foot-4, 203-pound Barnes,credits the UConn coaching staff and a handful of other positive influences throughout his young baseball career for helping him to develop a fastball in the 94-95 mph range with solid movement, as well as a sharp curve (78-81 mph) and a strong, biting slider, combined with an evolving changeup. – Houston Chronicle
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP – Spring Valley HS
Who Likes Him: Frankie Piliere, Scout.com
Taylor Guerrieri joined Spring Valley for his senior season after transferring from North Augusta, and his high-90s fastball was hard to ignore - and even harder for opponents to hit. With an arsenal of pitches, he also throws a 12-to-6 breaking ball and a changeup. Guerrieri is expected to be selected in the first round of the June 6 Major League Baseball Draft. His big arm and 6-3 frame have potential written all over them. In nine starts, Guerrieri was 6-1 with a 1.10 ERA. He threw 51 innings—with three complete games—and struck out 72, while allowing just 24 hits and walking 23. You can’t help but notice those numbers or his athleticism. On top of his pitching prowess, Guerrieri also batted .507 (38-for-75) with nine homers and 34 RBIs. – Ken Bradley, The Sporting News
Taylor Jungmann, RHP - University of Texas
Who Likes Him: Keith Law, ESPN
While there are a couple of college arms that have gotten a bit more buzz as being top-of-the-draft types, there may not be another pitcher in the country who’s been more consistently effective than the Texas Longhorns ace. The big right-hander with a Mike Pelfrey-type frame has three plus pitches and shows the ability to maintain his stuff deep into every start. His fastball has been around 91-97 mph, even touching 98 mph, and sits comfortably in the 93-95 mph. His fastball has plus movement as well. His curve, with a hard, tight 11-to-5 break, is also a plus pitch, as is his changeup. While his command is average — he occasionally gets too much of the middle of the plate — he’s got outstanding control, throwing strikes and not hurting himself with walks. – Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com
Francisco Lindor, SS – Montverde Academy
Who Likes Him: Pro Draft Central
Lindor, a high school shortstop in Florida, has the chance to be an impact player on both sides of the ball at a premium position. He’ll definitely be able to stay at shortstop with plus defense, showing outstanding range and a strong arm. At the plate, he’s gotten stronger and he could grow into enough power to hit 15 or so homers annually, enough to keep pitchers honest, along with hitting .290-.300 every year. While he’s a solid average runner, he could be a potential leadoff hitter in the future, thanks to his strike-zone knowledge and willingness to take a walk to go along with his ability to swing the bat from both sides of the plate. Lindor is a high-energy player with good makeup, one who is almost certainly the top high school position player, according to talent, in this Draft class. – Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com
Original Post 6/3
Mikie Mahtook, OF – Louisiana State
Who Likes Him: Jim Callis, Baseball America
Mahtook, a native of Lafayette, La., was a 2011 first-team all-SEC selection, and he completed the regular season as the conference leader in slugging percentage (.709), walks (41), triples (5) and steals (29). He was No. 2 in the SEC in batting average (.383), home runs (14), total bases (139), on-base percentage (.496) and runs scored (61) and No. 3 in the league in RBI (56). His consecutive games reached-base streak is currently at 70 – he reached base safely in all 56 games this season and in the final 14 games of 2010. Mahtook has a .344 lifetime batting average at LSU, and he ranks No. 2 in school career annals in triples with 12 and No. 5 in stolen bases with 60. – LSU
Sonny Gray, RHP – Vanderbilt
Who Likes Him: Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com
Known for his tenacity and athleticism, Gray is one of the better pitchers in the country and among the top prospects for in the draft. He has a lighting quick arm that produces low- to mid-90s fastballs and a quality curveball. Gray is listed at 5-11, 180 pounds – raises concerns about whether he can handle a 200-inning workload. His size often is the first thing scouts talk about when breaking him down. Gray hasn’t had any trouble with the results, at least not at the collegiate level. This season, he has a 2.17 ERA in 95 1/3 innings, striking out 105 and walking 38. “If you need to win a game,” an American League scouting director said, “you want Sonny Gray pitching for you. He’s that kind of guy. – AZ Central
Levi Michael, SS – North Carolina
Who Likes Him: Keith Law, ESPN
Michael, a shortstop playing at the University of North Carolina, jumped into the first-round pick debate after a very impressive sophomore season in 2010. He has then followed it up in 2011 well by batting .313 in 57 starts. He also drew 46 walks compared to striking out just 37 times while leading the team in on-base percentage at .459. – MLB.com
Jed Bradley, LHP – Georgia Tech
Who Likes Him: DraftSheet.com
Georgia Tech left-handed pitcher Jed Bradley is projected by many to go in the top-15 picks of the 2011 MLB draft. After scouting Bradley, I have no qualms about placing him among the better left-handed pitchers I’ve ever had the opportunity to scout. If I’m an organization looking for a fast moving starting pitcher who could potentially contribute within a year, Bradley would be a fantastic choice. In an odd draft deep in left-handed college pitching, Bradley may wind up being the 3rd to go behind Danny Hultzen and Matt Purke. Just understand the selection is more a product of a strong class as Bradley has the stuff to be the first lefty selected most years. – Mike Newman, Scouting the Sally
George Springer, OF – UConn
Who Likes Him: John Sickels, Minor League Ball
George Springer is one of the top position players available in the 2011 draft and a likely top 5 selection. The UCONN junior is viewed as a five tool talent. At the plate, Springer has big power and good bat speed. He pulls the ball with power. In the field, Springer covers enough ground to remain in center and has a strong enough arm to play right. Coaches rave about Springer’s effort, whether it be running out a ground ball or chasing a fly in center. – MLB Draft Guide
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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oh my god jed bradley!!!!!
if the mets somehow pick him i will be ecstatic!!
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2011/03/22/jed-bradley-report
Bradley would be a great pick for us I think. He’ll probably be the 2nd LHP to go and we won’t get a chance at him but you never know.
Levi Michael I think is a reach and I’m really hopeing we don’t select him. He’s more of a safe type with little upside. One thing about drafting guys with a good OB is that there already getting everything they can out of their AB’s so there’s little room for their BA’s to go up where the guy who’s not showing a good plate approach has plenty of room to grow and there is no reason that cannot be taught especially to the HS kid over the next 4-5 years.
There are also other SS’s with more upside available in later rounds (Trevor Story, Brad Miller) and 2012 looks real good for SS’s too.
Two HS catchers Blake Swihart and Austin Hedges will be true overslot selections where ever they go. Swihart (Texas) and Hedges (UCLA and Borass) would really be huge for us IF we could sign them. I hope our scouts have a really good feeling one way or another on potential for signability and that we don’t miss out on a great opportunity to address Catching.
Andrew Susak Oregon St. would be a terrific pick in the supp round but will probably be loooong gone. Sean Trent FL, HS could be a real good 4th round selection if he lasts.
itmust be so hard on a guy like you knowing every g-d thing in the owrld of baseball and having tp post opn a little blog site because everyone in baseball has blackballed you and you can only find work in theparks cleaning up after the games. So sad…..
And what do you do with your pathetic life again besides following people around on blogs and being a pest?
Exactly. Nothing.
Not going to rake you over the coals for this…I understand what point you were making but…
basically what you said was to not go for the guy with the higher BA because he is already maxed out and go for the guy who isn’t doing as well because he has room to grow….
I can’t for a second think you actually believed that!
For my money I would go with Mikie Mahtook, if for no other reason than he has a great name for a Baseball player! lol
Metsie what I wrote was OB, not BA. The guy who has a high OB in college and especially HS is already maxing out his production where as the guy who has a low OB and an average BA is getting less production because of his approach. A good approach, eye, pitch recognition, within reason, should be able to be taught in the minors so the guy not exhibiting that quality now and subsequently taken in the 3rd round can be the better Major Leaguer than the Levi Michael type who has already refined this quality and costs you a #1 pick.
Essentially what I’m saying is bet on the ability and refine changeable qualities during the development period rather than drafting for already learned qualities and somewhat lesser ability.
And the converse could be argued that he already has all the plate discipline and all you need to do is refine his swing to get better hits than he is getting now!
The point being if a guy is already doing something well, it is probably due to good coaching and that says he is more coachable than the guy who has raw talent but has still not refined it with the coaching he has had so far.
If the guy has a high OB then he already has the plate discipline so all you really need to do is try to improve the OBs he is already getting.
Turn some of those walks into hits, Some of those hits into doubles etc…
It is apparent that the higher OB guy already has the ability to handle all the various pitches he will see. It’s all a guess when your talking about college numbers but that doesn’t mean you should ignore the success of one simply because you think he maxed out already. To me all that says is there is less to do with him in the coaching department and you can work on things like situational hitting and his glove.
AT least the high OB guy has shown he is capable of a high mark. The other guy could have the marks he has for a very good reason and that reason might not be able to be coached out of him such as not being able to hit a curveball.
When evaluating College players it is almost more important to look at WHAT gets him out more than what gets him on base.
Is it that he can’t handle a certain pitch? Or is there a problem with his approach at the plate?
A bad approach at the plate can be corrected, Not being able to hit a curveball is usually not!
Bottomline is WHERE is he vulnerable and is it a correctable issue, if not then pass!
by the way, the mets brought up acosta, to stink it up agaisnt his former team
Gray strikes me as a Mejia type. He’ll probably end up a closer. Not sure if I want to draft a guy most likely to end up a relief pitcher in the first round.
well parrot, you aren’t sure of anything until its spoon fed to you so why do you have to post your failures in the grey sections to the world?
Why so angry?
LoL, I can almost hear Bud Selig speaking those words as I read the title of the post “And With Pick No. 13, The New York Mets Select…”
Scary…
Living in Chapel Hill, I’ve seen Levi Michael many times and never thought of him as a #1 draft pick. Of course, I never thought Justin Turner would be the Mets’ best RBI man, either. I think the Mets can do much better. Before Michael, the Tarheels had a shortstop named Josh Horton who I thought was more of a major league prospect than Michael. For the record, Horton was Oakland’s second round pick in 2007 and is currently a utility infielder with AAA Sacramento, barely batting over .200.
Most of the scout blogs I read don’t think Michael would be a good pick for the Mets at 13 and he probably won’t be around at 44, their supplemental pick.
Appreciate your opinion and insight Barry. Did you see Harvey pitch for the Tar Heels? What did you think of him? Anyone on the team that you can see going on the first day in 2012?
levi michael for some reason doesn’t exite me, get bradley, we need to fill our farms with power arms!!!
You can add Taylor Jungmann and Taylor Guerrieri to the speculation
It will be a miracle if Jungmann falls in the Mets lap. He was 13-0 with an ERA of 0.95 and opponent batting average of .159 this year. I’ve read from draft projections that the Brewers may nab him, but keep your fingers crossed.
I’d actually rather not get Jungmann. His delivery stresses his shoulder and his changeup doesn’t move.
Thank you for offering useful articles on many people.
thank for you….
This topic was covered by today’s e-mail Post
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/picks_will_unveil_alderson_philosophy_sTyf5yFtWlWRQHpZTgF3yO
with a couple of different considerations:
Brandon Nimmo, OF East H.S, Cheyenne, Wy LHH (requires slot+(may be interesting if only to guage if Alderson’s slot adherance is being controlled by Wilpons
However, despite our current situation Re. Middle infield types I personally would consider an inventory on hand of
REYES
MURPHY
TURNER
TEJADA
HAVENS
FLORES
to be sufficiently deep as TO PREFER THEY ignore Levi Michael listed both here & by “THE POST” I always thought the secret of winning baseball was “YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH PITCHING!” not “YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MANY MIDDLE INFIELDERS”
I contend that we’ve enough potential options to not waste a #13 first round pick on yet another despite his being a former Harvey, Tarheel teammate. u want more MI depth? Wait for the subsequent rounds, I’m sure ther’s plentry available, besides I’d much prefer my middle infielders from the Intl marketplace of Latin America.. As a novice @ all this amateuer evaluation stuff, I read ALL these brief descri[ptions & I’d prefer to hear these names as taken by us with either or both of our first round selections;
JED BRADLEY, LHP
MIKE MAHTOOK, RHP
ALEX MEYER, RHP
SONNY GRAY, RHP
anybody see my preferred pattern? For this & any first round selection, pitching is my #1 priority!
Especially considering logistics & geography(Citifield)
Agree on the pitching ’62. I really wish we had blown the budget in the IFA arena and gotten some great middle infielders and I agree that’s where we should look for them. Catcher has 3 guys worthy of a first round selection and quite a few others farther down. We need to have a solid catching tandem, guys to consider trading coming up here. Catcher in recent years has been Cancel, Casanova, Santos in AAA. Now it’s Ryan, cut by Baltimore and Nickeas cut by Atlanta. AA has Groneur who looks like he’ll age out and an older French Canadian I’ve never heard of. Pena’s not going to make it, Forsythe hasn’t shown anything. The best teams have the same catcher every year. It’s a big part of the pitching staff. Thole at best will be a decent half of a tandem. I really hope we address C in a really significant way both in the draft and the IFA arena.
Forget the outfielders, we have plenty in the system. We need pitching! Bradley and Jungmann are the best ones on this list, but I dont think either of them will fall to the Mets at 13. If one of them do, that’s who the Mets take no questions asked.
In response to t agee, I definitely thought Harvey was a future big league starter and potential ace, but I actually liked Andrew Miller better and he’s still struggling to make the big leagues. The best hitter on the Tarheels this year was the freshman 3rd baseman, Colin Moran. He’s from Rye, NY, nephew of B.J. Surhoff and a future high draft pick for sure, best hitter for UNC since Dustin Ackley.
Thanks Barry. Appreciate it.
BTW Miller is going to be given every chance by the Red Sox to see if he can straighten out his control problems. Miller was promoted too quickly by Detroit. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets up here this year or next.
Just don’t take a pitcher out of Wichita State…Their coach, Gene Stevenson over works them and by the time they turn pro, they’re useless. Mike Palfrey and Darren Dreifort are perfect examples. Name one WSU pitcher that has succeeded as a pro
How exciting that all the nasty little metsie fans will have a new guy to think is just the next ty cobb pete rose and babe ruth all rolled int oone and then someday sooner rather than later you all will come to hate him and boo him and make him despise the metsie uniform you all so disrespect. pity the poor soul drafted by the metsies.
Bud Selig: “Tonight the New York Mets select Bayonne Mets Fan”
No… no they don’t.
I just hope I don’t hear/read people try to pretend like they know anything about this draft tomorrow. It’s such a crapshoot, and it all depends on who is in the minor league development system.
How did u miss nimmo..lol no hs baseball…I guess pitching does not win championships…keep bowing to your front office of over priced clueless wilpon hires
I bet some people think when they show the Mets draft room they will just show Paul DePodesta in a dark room with a single light bulb over his head, with a bright computer monitor and a laser jet printer in the background.
And then he’ll yell
“I got it!”
Mets primary need was an imoact bat to replace Beltran / Bay a few years from now. Mets OF prospects are mainly 4th outfielders and or 1B. Nimmo and then picking a lot of solid arms was a great strategy.