1
2011
Jose Reyes May Be Changing Alderson’s Mind
An article by Hojo's Mojo
John Harper of the Daily News, spoke to a scout who says that while Reyes has seemed more likely to go, as he heads toward free agency, there is a sense among some baseball people that the shortstop may be changing Alderson’s mind.
As an example, Harper shares a discussion he had yesterday with a major league scout who told him:
“If he has to get down to a payroll number,” the scout said, “I think he’ll trade the other two (Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez) at the deadline, then deal Wright in the offseason. The way Reyes is playing, he has too much value to trade at the deadline for what Sandy can get in return. Look at their club and look at the other shortstops around the league, and trading Wright makes more sense.”
Yesterday, ESPN’s Adam Rubin reported that a source basically intimated the same idea.
“It will be a very ticklish situation because of what David has meant to the team for so long, but that’s not a concern of Sandy,” the source said. “There will be some capital there to spend on Reyes if they choose to go that direction. Now, he can’t obviously get monster money. If Reyes wants monster money, no, the Mets won’t keep him.”
It is now apparently clear that Jose Reyes is having the best season of his career, while by many accounts, David Wright’s best season was 3-4 years ago depending on who you choose to believe.
Both players are going to demand an average annual salary of $15 million plus (Wright becomes a free agent in two years).
So the question becomes who will give you more bang for the buck?
Also, here is something else to consider… It’s the question nobody has asked and I haven’t see mentioned anywhere else yet…
Do you give Reyes, 28, a five-plus year deal now?
Or give Wright a five-plus year deal in 2014 when he is 31?
Happy trails, Hans…
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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The question has indeed been asked before: http://www.tedquarters.net/2011/05/31/jose-reyes-contract-poll/
you could make a decision now on reyes, and defer any decision on Wright until after the 2013 season. no way are they doing an extension this early with him, whether Reyes walks or not.
That article doesn’t mention either players age or even makes the same point Chakrabs. It’s a poll with 8 different contract variations.
If you read my question, I ask:
Do you give Reyes, 28, a five-plus year deal now, or give Wright a five-plus year deal in 2014 when he is 31?
Thanks for reading MMO and for your comment.
Dude, that article doesn’t even mention David Wright at all?
That is not the relevant question. It is actually do you sign reyes now, or keep Wright through 2013 instead? Of course, this assume you can’t do both (which really is not true).
as to the issue of getting down to a payroll number, what does that scout think they are trying to get below, 90mill? If you trade K Rod on top of getting rid of beltran, they will have plenty of room to keep Wright (at 15 or 16 next year) even with signing reyes.
beltran, K rod, castillo and ollie alone are over 50mill off the books. Even if reyes goes to say 17mill (and it could easily be backloaded a little), that is still a reduction of ~45 mill, so below 100 (before any other changes), even with Wright and Bay still on the books.
many of the other changes to the team are likely to be cheap (rookie RF?) or lateral (a couple 2-4 mill players to replace current ones).
lots of ways for Sandy to go, but it has to be a fallacy that they can’t keep wright and reyes if they want to, and still get payroll to a more manageable number.
Don’t have to cut Wright to sign reyes, Your already going to make up for what Reyes will get above his current with the money that comes off from Perez and Castillo, Add Beltran’s money on top of that and there is no issue signing Reyes and deciding on Wright next year around this same time.
I agree with you, which is why the quote above (from a scout, through Harper) made little sense.
Well Dude, he is a scout for crying out loud! LOL
What the hell would any scout know about our money situation, Free Agent thinking and evaluation of Reyes from Sandy’s perspective unless the scout IS Sandy?
Everyone assumed that when Sandy said he is waiting to see what happens with Reyes that he had to be talking about Reyes himself.
But what the rest of the team was doing was always more important to determining keeping or selling off Reyes than Reyes’ performance on his own.
Reyes’ Performance really only affects how much we could get back and/or how much we might have to pay him. But the decision to sign or sell was always going to be about what was around him and if tthose guys around him warranted keeping a payroll like Reyes’ on the books!
I think the play of Davis (before he got hurt) and the emergence of three Capable guys who can play 2B makes signing Reyes to have a completed infield for at least two years (when Wright comes up for renewal) a very nice place for Sandy to be in. In field done retool the outfield and rotation/pen. if we just have a little luck on Santana’s return and If Harvey, Holt or Mejia don’t have any more setbacks that could be solved by the end of next year!
Just around the time where we hae to figure out if Wright is worth keeping or trading!
All of that says the team is such that it may now make sense to resign Reyes while he is still relativly in his prime.
I like your thinking.
+1
If the payroll is going to be around 100 mil, and Johan, Wright, Bay get 56 mil, lets assume Reyes gets 18 mil, that’s 74 mil on four players.
certainly the team is top heavy, but they are spending that today. More counting Betran over reyes.
at least next year, there will be 2 less drags (18mill total) and Beltran is off, so they can still drop payroll. That is close to 40mill going away, and it only represents 1 player to replace (and corner OF is not the hardest place to do it)
When you put it in those terms the choice is obvious, Jose Reyes MUST get signed. I cant even imagine giving Wright a 5 year deal now let alone when he’s 31, and if that’s the case then trade Wright and keep Reyes.
Even without the age difference I take Reyes over Wright anyday. Reyes is still peaking, Wright is in decline and has become a strikeout machine.
Please sign Jose Reyes already!!!! What the hell are the waiting for??? Reyes was built for Citi Field!!! Just sign him already and get off your ass and do something Alderson!
Well I disagree with the assumption that Sandy has changed his mind about reyes.
I don’t think he had ever made up his mind one way or the other regarding Reyes and was waiting to see what developed.
And what developed is that Reyes is having his best year yet, stayed healthy and may stay!
As for trading Wright I think it made a lot of sense about two weeks ago before the Back injury. But now people will assume if we are trading the “Face” there must be something dreadly wrong with him and won’t offer much in return!
Maybe in the off season but the trade deadline is out for now.
the off season, maybe as part of a major makeover. But I would be shocked to see Wright moved at the trade deadline.
Me too and unless Turner or Murphy can keep up their current numbers well beyond the time Wright gets back I doubt Sandy will move him at all…
Could Arb him and take the picks instead.
Could do that with Reyes too if they can’t agree on the money quite honestly.
I cant stand all these sourced rumors. 3/4 of them end up being false. I’m certain the Mets will soon make Reyes an offer and that we will re-sign him. The media is trying to create a feeding frenzy and keeps throwing blood into the water. You cant believe all this garbage especially from a hack like Rubin who has an agenda against the Mets.
and why is he asking a scout about something that is really related to payrolls? seems like that should be geared toward a FO “source”
unless maybe he was chatting it up with Omar?
good bye david wright… that seems to be the logical
My friend knows how to say goodbye in 17 different languages. I would list all of them if I could and bid David Wright a fond farewell.
Einhorn needs to be in on these decisions. He’ll probably own this team in a year or so , and therefore he needs to be with the Mets braintrust when
Reyes and Wright decisions are made. In the long term he will be on the hook for these contracts.
Im sick of saying it but if your getting rid of Beltran and K-ROd salary (right around 34 mil between them) why cant you sign reyes. I dont see how 15,000 people a night at citi field is a winning strategy financially.
I agree with most stuff written here and I would add that after they sign Jose, that they can come to David and re-negotiate his 2 remaining years and wrap that up into a 5 or 6 yr deal with mutual option or deferred payments, if they can do that for Bobby Bo then why not for David?
For every idiot who can’t wait for Wright to leave, i hope you enjoyed Willie Harris at third tonite.I hope he leaves too.As a free agent in 2013.He deserves a lot better than playing in this idiotic ballpark and for our moronic owners.
I’VE SAID IT MANY TIMES & HAVE YET TO BE TOLD IT WON’T FLY…
MY OFFER WOULD BE A TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT “BEST SHOT” 5Y/94M WITH A MUTUAL OPT OUT CLAUSE AFTER THE 3rd YEAR STRUCTURED THIS WAY:
2012 18M
2013 18M
2014 18M
2015 20M
2016 20M
NOTE WHEN I KICK IT UP TO 20 TO PREVENT THAT BEING THE IMPETUS TO AN OPTOUT
DOES ANYONE ELSE REALIZE WHILE THERE’S CERTAINLY TEAMS WITH THE WHEREWITHALL TO SPEND AND THE NEED @ SS.
JOSE, IS NOT THE ONLY HIGH LEVEL SS HITTING THE MARKET THIS YR. J-ROLL & ALEX ESCOBAR ARE HIS COMPANIONS & BOTH LIKELY TO DEMAN FAR LESS THAN BEING SPECULATED UPON. I DOUBT MORE THAN 5Y IS HAPPENING FOR JOSE’S HAMMIES.
MUTUAL OPT OUT IS PERFECT INSURANCE FOR JOSE AS IF HE’S DISAPPOINTED WITH ALDERSON’S REBUILDING MNGT OR TEAM’S DIRECTION. AS WELL AS OPTING OUT COULD BE PERFECT FOR NYM SHOULD REYES’ INJURIES CONTINUE TO PLAGUE HIM/THEM!
BTW, @ THES PROPOSED VALUES, JOSE WILL BE THE HIGHEST PAID SS FOR ALL 5 YRS. FIRST 3 ALONE, NEXT 2 TIED WITH TULO
That’s cause it could fly ’62. The only fly is it only guarantees Reyes 54 M.
If only Reyes had the opt out after 3 it would guarantee him 94M and leave open the opportunity to go free agent at 31 at which point I would strongly consider just letting him go depending on the CBA and draft pick compensation.
All players are injury risks, not just one’s who’ve been hurt before. I really don’t see Jose as being more of a risk than anyone else so the question becomes one of tying a lot of payroll into another player at the expense of having to skimp elsewhere.
Next year Santana, Niese, Pelfrey, Gee, Dickey is already committed or inexpensive or in Pelfrey’s case could even be non tendered. The following year could have two of Mejia, Familia, Harvey and Holt up here. That’s not costing a lot. The bullpen is likely to just be re worked every years at a low cost from the farm and non compensatable FA’s. Bench should be useful and in expensive with Murphy, Turner, Fern, Pridie, Thole.
Davis, Tejada, Reyes and Flores @ 3B wouldn’t cost much combined. Bay’s a drag at 16M and you need a starting C, RFer and possibly a CFer but what does that all come out too. About 100 M WITH Reyes or 120 M WITH Reyes and Wright. Less if we could find a workable platoon for RF.
I don’t see why it couldn’t fly.