7
2011
Is Wilmer Flores The Heir To Jose Reyes?
An article by Hojo's Mojo
Sean Hartnett of CBS New York, argues that the Mets best option would be to trade Jose Reyes.
With Ruben Tejada ready to shift over to shortstop, the Mets have a ready-made solution available at the major league level. Tejada is captivating fans at Citi Field with his superb glove and is more advanced at the plate than expected — he is currently batting .304. The Amazin’s have a solid long-term plan in place with uber-prospect Wilmer Flores waiting in the wings. Although not yet ready for the big leagues, Flores possesses a powerful bat and is expected to progress quickly through the Mets’ farm system.
It may be hard for Mets fans to take but dealing away Reyes makes sense on many levels. There will certainly be a backlash directed toward ownership if Jose is traded but fans won’t feel that way in a few years when Flores is the new face of the franchise. If the players received in exchange for Reyes are complimenting Flores in a future Mets’ lineup, fans will look back at trading their superstar as the correct decision.
I have a few problems with his argument about Flores being the likely replacement for Reyes.
First, Wilmer Flores is not moving through the Mets minors at a fast pace. He’s been through four lower levels of the minors in four years which is typical and neither too fast or too slow.
Second, Flores isn’t lighting it up at St. Lucie and is currently batting .259 with a .301 on-base in 216 at-bats. Of his 56 hits, only 15 are for extra bases – that’s 75% singles. Flores has below average speed and has stolen ten bases in four seasons as a pro.
Finally, not one baseball scout or talent evaluator believes Flores will remain at shortstop, and it’s not just because of his size. Flores has a strong arm, but doesn’t move well on balls in play, has poor instincts, and doesn’t possess the range you want from a shortstop. He projects as a left fielder or a third baseman if he shows he can handle the position.
Meanwhile, another Mets fan is doing his part to spread the message for keeping Jose Reyes. Pete Signorelli set up a Facebook page entitled: Keep Jose Reyes in Orange & Blue. The fan reaction to keeping Jose Reyes is reaching a fever pitch.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
84 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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lmao.. do these ppl realize that talent and players like jose reyes comes once in a blue moon?? look, i like flores, and he’s got a lot of upsize, but frankly how can this guy even say we won’t forget reyes? if he signs with the yankees or boston or philly and win a championship, we’ll be left wondering oh what if.. but don’t worry, i am sure nymmo will bring exciment and joy to us mets fans..
“Flores possesses a powerful bat and is expected to progress quickly through the Mets’ farm system.”
Hah!
You are right Hojo, I don’t know what this guy has been drinking but Flores’ development is moving at a snail’s pace. By the time he’s ready for Citi, we’ll have landed Mets fans on Mars!
Maybe Hartnett is on a permanent crack high. Flores to replace Reyes?
Please get F-ing real!
Hartnett is trying to stir some sh*t this morning with an article like this. Can’t blame him for trying to get page views from riled up fans. But spare me the whole “Wilmer Flores is the SS of the future.” He’ll never come close to Jose Reyes’ jockstrap, let alone his level of play.
Flores should have been placed at a position he actually projects to play if he gets up here. Based only on his numbers he projects right now to repeat A+ next year. That means if everything goes as well as it could, AA in 2013, AAA the first half of 2014.
That’s realistically the quickest he can get up here and it could be longer, he could stagnate, get hurt, take more time to get comfortable at 3B or LF.
I’ve been reading about his moving of SS for over two years now. What are the Mets waiting for?
Does he realize that at W. Flores age, Jose was in the MAJORS!!!!!
So Flores our #1 or #2 prospect isn’t an uberprospect? He sounds a lot like Murphy to me. Not enough power to play a corner position. He sounds like Martinez, his only claim to elite status was that he was the youngest player in his leagues. At least he isn’t always hurt.
Did Hartnett write this February or something? Flores is not progressing through the minors mainly because he can’t play SS and they haven’t moved him yet. His offense isn’t lighting the world on fire, either.
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I find myself more and more preferring to read Mets bloggers insights than the garbage and tabloid stuff from guys that get paid to write about the Mets. I especially detest Mike Puma of the Post, Martino of the News, and Lennon of Newsday. This guy who wrote this, honestly I never heard of him, but he certainly ranks up their with the dregs I already mentioned. Keep posting your blogs and comments Mets fans, for now they are the only things worth reading. I prefer to read insights from people who actually love the team than from those who couldnt care less and are paid to simply enflame the fanbase.
Anyone who thinks someone is going to REPLACE Jose Reyes is out of their mind.
Reyes is probably going into the hall as one of the best shortstops to ever play the game!
Your not just going to REPLACE that!
Reyes in his career (9 years) is hitting .289 .338 OBP .438 SLG .776 OPS 350 SB
Rollins (12 Years) by comparison is hitting only .279 BA .329 OBP .433 SLG .761 OPS 357 SB
Sorry but if you look at all the great SS who ever played the game you quickly see that guys like that don’t come around very often. Your not simply going to REPLACE them!
The guy who preceeded them as the best SS to ever play the game was Ozzie Smith.
He hit .262 BA .337 OBP .328 SLG .666 OPS
I get it though some people think three players is better than one.
But they are not better than one HOF player!
Many here complain about the GREED of the owners here and in places like Pittsburg. Then they go and support those deals a greedy owner likes to make to get rid of salary that can go in his pocket instead and get three players they can say over and over “Hey we got this kid he is going to be great, just wait 4 years” 4 years later you never hear about them again!
And people are dumb enough to buy into it.
Maybe if they put thier hate aside, cleared their mind of the emotional and made a rational decision this talk of trading Reyes would all go away.
Yes he is worth a lot of money and yes he could get you three kids who are not.
But unless one of those kids goes to the Hall it will be a BAD MOVE for the Mets!
And in the next 7 years if you did happen to find another SS as good as Reyes guess what you will pay him? A hell of a lot more than you will for Reyes!
Put aside your hatred of Omar, the Wilpons and make your decision based on how many times have you seen a guy like Reyes at SS. If you don’t see it all the time then you have better keep that guy and look someplace else to upgrade your franchise!
We won’t replace beltran either but we will lose him so in his case it makes sense to trade. It is far easier to find a good hitting OF than it is to find a dynamo like Reyes at SS.
Bay could easily be replaced by any number of kids and all it would take is being willing to pay half his salary which frees up 8 Mil to spend on someone else (maybe even the extra amount over current that Reyes is going to get!
K-Rod is going to be the MOST sought after trade product at the deadline simply because closers are a hot commodity to a team in a playoff race and want to upgrade at the deadline.
Even David Wright as much as I love him is not a sure thing HOF candidate when you consider the company throughout history who have manned the HOT CORNER and made the HOF!
But at least David is still close enough, young enough and good enough to get considered.
Daniel Murphy could easily replace Wright, Beato could possibly replace K-Rod, Maybe F-Mart or Flores can replace Beltran but there is hardly anyone who can replace Reyes glove AND bat!
So I say all this talk about trading Reyes is just wrong headed. He will geta 6-10 Mil raise. So what thats money we currently spend on Perez or Castillo. It’s really a wash monetarily.
If we can’t resign him then take the two picks you will get back and have a choice of much more promising talent than currently sits in any team’s MiL system.
You want to get those players then trade away all those Minor leaguers you expect to REPLACE Reyes for him instead. or better yet…
Trade Bay, Pay half his salary, Throw in Tejada or Flores and get the player you want to get the most from the team you intend to trade Reyes to!
Then you have paid for reyes, Got the same player you wanted anyway and now have a free and open LF position that should not be too hard to find a power bat for to replace Bay!
Maybe if we didn’t always look for the EASY path in our dealings we wouldn’t be in the situation we are in now and might just have the team where you wouldn’t trade anyone because they are all good!
Another great post HoJo! I totally agree!
metsie:
alex68 aproves this Msg… nice work…
Metsie – yes, yes, yes, yes and yes (did I miss anything?). Well said.
I really have to wonder sometimes Coop if the folks around here are interested in making this team good or more interested in erasing the memory of Omar and creating new excuses to hate and demand the exile of Wilpon.
Get rid of everyone who is good and draws so there is no money and the Wilpons are forced to sell the team.
And then when that happened and we are in the basement for 5 years they will blame Wilpon for getting rid of all the good players despite the fact they are the ones who said we HAD to do it to fix the team!
You know the old phrase “You never make a decision when your angry or emotional”?
There are a lot of angry fans making decisions that they would not make if they just took a breath and stopped to think of the rammifications.
Reyes IS irreplaceable. A trade of Reyes for a Mike Trout type prospect in an even swap would be something I would do but no way Anaheim even considers such a thing.
Reyes for three prospects would just be a salary dump with window dressing like the Wagner deal with two #1 draft choices going to Boston for one year of a designated hitter.
Moves like that have continually killed this franchise.
Continually avoiding any players best years by either bringing them up at 20 or signing them after 32 just ensures that we will never get the best years of anyone that ever plays for us.
Reyes is right now 27 years old. Few teams have any SS’s in their system. Many teams are playing guys at SS that are 35-40 years old. If Jose would accept 18 a year for 5 years that’s an extra 7 over this year with 38 coming off for sure and possibly another another 12.
We do have to stop always taking the easy way out (relying on whoever we can sign every year for all of next years needs) and start accumulating the best players who have their best years as Mets, not someone else.
Reyes has 5 years going forward in his prime. He’s no more of an injury risk than anyone else in the league. Insure the damn contract, back him up with Tejada and let’s get this thing done!
The question is would Jose take 5 years? I think we all have to think about what it is that Jose is looking to get. Is it money or years or both? I think 90/5 is a good deal for Jose! But he may be wanting way more than that and I don’t blame the Wilpons for not breaking the bank especially on years!
The years should not be an issue in fact it is actually in Reyes’ best interests to sign for only 5 years since that would set him up for one last big payday just before age would start to reduce his performance.
He is 28 now. in 5 years he will be 33. Still young enough to to get another 5+ year contract for the same and maybe even more money than he is asking for now provided he keeps his numbers up.
And the Salary is only one aspect, If he stays here for the next 5 years he can get a much larger windfall in endorsements in the home of Madison Avenue than he will say in San Fran or some other lesser market city.
So no the years are not a problem. If he does 5 years now he gets another big payday in 5 years that can take him to retirement!
a retirement that I hope includes the statement Career Met!
Tag is Mike Trout a sure thing HOFer? Better off sending three kids we can’t use to get him not try and swap a sure HOF for a lottery ticket.
It seems as though the decision already been made NOT to resign Reyes. At least that’s the vibe I get. It’s horrible but not unexpected. When will people stop being surprised and puzzled by the Wilpons?? The Wilpon’s are not difficult to figure out.
The first priority of the Wilpons is NOT the New York Mets winning. The first priority of the Wilpons is rehabilitating their finances. Once Met fans accept this it gets a little easier. We are shite for the next 3-5yrs.
the beat writers seem to be fairly torn. When you cut through all the hyperbole and baseless speculation, one guy thinks he’s gone, the next guy says they’ve got 2012 Jose Reyes Night already planned.
You could argue that having Jose Reyes here selling ticket and merchandise helps the Wilpons recoup their finances.
Oh Comon LLMF…I mean the guy spent 140 Million on Salary this year and 120 Mil last year and the year before…All because he his first priority was to buy us a winner!
And now that many people have stopped going to see them because they did not succeed there are financial problems because we fans decided not to help PAY for that priority!
Yes they are rehabilitating their finances, finances that were forced into needing to rehabilitate because they spent like crazy to make winning a priority.
And they did win for awhile and we did attend. It’s not the Wilpons who forced us to prioritize our finances it was we fans who didn’t go to see them play who did it!
WE MADE the finances a priority by our refusal to buy tickets!
Cause without tickets sold there are no finances to use towards making winning a priority!
will you metsie go to the game to watch crap on the field?? phillies, boston, yankees… those teams sell tickets why? because they invest money on their teams, we actually don’t.. trust me, once they shell out all the salary for this year the mets payroll will be around 100 at best next year and they will try to give us the “the market is not good” speech they gave us this year. that’s why they spent a whooping 5 million on free agency to fill out 5 position and pitching
Yeah we spent 140 Mil on hot dogs I guess…
does that mean that only the few teams winning big each year should have any attendence?
there are actually people that like to go to watch games live, even when the team isn’t in the playoff hunt all year.
Your point is taken Metsie however those contracts were given when the Wilpons were living large and in charge..
The Wilpon’s needed to “borrow” 40 million from MLB just to meet daily expenses and recently asked to borrow 40 million more.
Fours years ago, even three years ago the Wilpon’s resign Reyes without question.
It’s obvious now that the Wilpon’s are having a difficult time financing their debt and are reluctant to take on debt without stabilizing their financial situation first.
Translation….NO large contracts for the next few years, keep this on the down-low if and when people catch on, continue the austerity under the guise of “rebuilding.”
I have held and stated this since December 2010. Of course I could be wrong but I don’t think so.
Yes because we stopped going to see all the guys they signed when WINNING was a priority….
Why do you think they spent to just blow money on crap?
They thought they were buying a championship because everyone said “Hey Look at the yankees 5 wins out of 7 WS appearances” and so they did what people wanted.
Two years ago everyone decided they didn’t want it anymore and stopped going to the tune of 40 Million dollars they had to borrow to pay for that PRIORITY they were buying.
You blame them for not making winning a priority because the finances suck and the reason the finances suck is because BUYING WIN to prioritize it didn’t sell!
Now they still have to pay for that priority and we have denied them the ability to make it a priority anytime soon!
If we want them to buy we have to show that WE are willing to buy as well!
The yankees didn’t win the WS last year nor did they even make the WS the 5 years before that…
They STILL sold out every game those 5 years they weren’t winning.
They still sell out today!
Our guys got hurt, Not the Wilpons fault and we dicided to skip two seasons of attendance.
It is OUR tepid loyalty that caused the financial issues not the Wilpons.
They just did what we wanted but refused to pay for and now they can’t for the same exact reason!
Thanks for shout out on facebook page to keep jose in orange and blue!! Maybe we can have the only sellout of the year be when we organize all this support for keeping Jose and prove to Einhorn and the Wilpons that it WILL effect their bottom-line if they let him go. I have some faith in Einhorn, I just don’t know if the Wilpon’s are going to let him have a say once he gets approved by MLB. His moves on Wall Street have been very smart, his young enough to be current with the times and he’s loaded enough to be able to compete in the NY market place. He’s also a great poker player so let’s hope he’s smart enough to know when it’s time to go ALL IN by signing Jose!
p.s. biggest reason i see Jose doing so great this year is he’s not trying to hit home runs anymore … this is such a big step for him.
“he thinks he’ll get carl crawford money, he won’t get it. he’s had everything wrong go against him”
jeff wilpon on jose reyes…
and we’re suppose to think they’re going to keep him??
fred i meant to say
he’s played in over 153 games a year 4 of last 6 and would be 5 of 6 if not for the thyroid issue last year (which is now under control) … even so he played 133 last year…so basically he’s been full time for 5 of 6 years … he’s not an injury risk anymore so than any other player in baseball at this stage … i think he’s as good as crawford but i don’t think carl crawford deserved the contract he got … times be a changin’, attendence is WAY down (heck the yankees can’t even sell out) … jose and his advisors will realize that kind of money is off the table, i would hope. Also, Fred Wilpon was interviewed for that article in first two weeks or so of season when mets were dreadful, after seeing last few months he might be changing his tune about what Jose’s worth
sadly, it is not just about reyes. it is if they spend the money on him, what else is it that they don’t spend it on.
so the fine line to walk for the GM (who certainly has a budget cap number) is figuring out if the team will be better giving 18ish to jose, and maybe filling out the rest of the holes with retreads, or spending that 18 in multiple areas, and potentially being better (wins) right now, or in the next couple of years with an influx of talent.
One thing for sure is that they better get damned good pitching next year to be decent, since without Reyes and beltran (replaced by tejada and a rookie RF most likely), this offense ain’t looking to be any better!
him and tejeda should be the defense up the middle for years to come, which will certainly help the pitching … i honestly think jose pays for himself by the number of fans that come to the park for him … i really believe this…so what they spend outside of that should be on pitching yes! but to me it’s a no brainer signing reyes, sort of like with yanks and jeter, they knew they paid too much but they also knew he brings fans to park and sells merchandise…jose out of all players on the mets pays his share of the freight with the fans he brings out to see him and the merchandise he sells, this shouldn’t be so hard a decision for met management and quite frankly i think francesa has been a big part of making it a bigger question than it would be normally with all his talk of it since day one of the season.
pete,
turner at 3b, tejada at 2b reyes at SS, davis at 1B, trade wright and package of 2 or 3 player for a bonafide ace… we get pitching, and wright founds a home where he can be free of pressure maybe…
Wright for an ace pitcher? ok.. I can live with that as long as the Mets resign reyes, keep Ruben Tedjda at 2b and somehow find a legitimate power hitting 3rd baseman. the pitcher to a long term contract. But what pitcher? And Turner is really not a viable long term answer at 3rd base. Wilmer Flores 3rd base? But Flores is no where near David Wright offensive production this stage in his development.
David Wright for Ryan Zimmerman? Is Ryan Zimmerman signed to a long term contract?
lifelong: the best part about this is that all alex does is trash Wright and say how terrible he is… yet his brilliant idea is that David Wright’s trade value is as high as a “bonifide ace.”
Now granted, we don’t call these “aces” by their name. Well he tried with King Felix, but maybe he’s off that fantasy.
Which “ace” is out there for David Wright that the Mets could magically acquire?
Josh Johnson? Jon Lester? Chris Carpenter? David Price? Ubaldo? Kershaw? Sabathia? Lee? Halladay? Oswalt? Verlander? Lincecum? Felix? Jurrjens?
In every instance the answer is “not available.” and that’s with or without David Wright.
So while its fun to just throw a statement out there like “trade for an ace.” they don’t just grow on trees and teams aren’t just giving them away. Get real.
jessePodesta:
if you read well my trades offer you would realize i still think he’s overrated and in order to acquire a pitcher who’s actually good i put his overrated as-s along with other player/s and prospects.. never alone, at this point wright along can give you jason marquis maybe lol!!!!
jessep does that all the time. He completely overlooks the fact you said Wright plus 2/3 players for an ace, and twists into saying Wright for an ace. That’s why I always accuse him of twisting. He does it all the time. But he’s a good guy and I’ve come to realize he doesn’t even realize that he does it. Some people scan instead or read and only pick up parts of sentences and compeltely misunderstand points that are made. My brother is like that.
Maniac & Alex,
Okay lets play your MLB2k11 game here.
Wright+2/3 players (who?) for an ace
Go ahead. Since I’m so wrong here, tell me what 2/3 players can realistically get packaged with David Wright for a legitimate ace. And please, name a few aces you feel would be realistic to acquire.
If you cannot complete this task, then please stop typing and picking fights about me twisting things around.
i think the only reason we are having these conversations is b/c wilpon/alderson have led us to believe there’s simply just not enough money to keep both wright and reyes…we would all like to keep them both but if we have to choose one to go i think people initially always thought it would be wright staying and jose going but nowadays i think more and more it’s shifting the other way (and not just b/c david is hurt now) … einhorn should be a hero and help find a way to solidfy an infield of ike, ruben, jose and wright for the next 5 or so years … pagan, bay and whoever steps up amongst murphy, martinez and the rest in the outfield and we have a good team (beltran and k-rod come off the payroll)… i can see a rotation of Johan, Niese, Dickey, Meijja, Pelfrey, Gee (5 of those six) for next several years…that’s a very good team with a payroll around where it’s at now or maybe even a little less….step up Einhorn and make it happen and everyone is happy…a nice young team with pedigree and enough experience and leadership with vets like johan, bay, right and reyes to ride it out to the promised land….in this market with new ownership this shouldn’t be beyond reach, it really shouldn’t
alex or maniac: Still waiting on this magical “ace” that is obtainable. Maybe Sandy Alderson can create one in his basement?
i can live with that…if we have to get rid of one of wright or reyes i would trade wright …but hopefully the “powers” that be can figure out a way to make it work once krod and beltran are off the payroll … i know i’m dreaming here but maybe Bay too hahaha.
Yes, let’s trade Jose Reyes because Rubin Tejada is batting .304…in 56 AB’s! Watch out Canton, here comes Rubin! (Psst, let’s not mention that his slugging % is only a hair above his BA!)
Hey, I like Tejada – good glove, plays hard, seems like a good kid, but there are light years between Jose and Tejada. And Wilmer Flores?? How Hartnett keeps his job is beyond me. I don’t follow the Mets’ minor league clubs nearly as closely as others, but I’ve known for a couple of years that if Flores were to make it, it wouldn’t be at SS.
Flores couldn’t hold Reyes’ jock.
But you guys are right. We should save the 18 mill a year that we’d spend on Reyes and go out and get some pitching. For 18 Mill we can get Piniero and CJ Wilson. Man our team would be amazing and who would really miss watching Reyes play day in and day out. The seasons only 162 games, it’s not like we care about being entertained.
Oh wait I’m an idiot and have no idea what I’m talking about.
You don’t replace Jose Reyes. You simply find another person to play short stop. To suggest he is replaceable is an insult to him and anyone who’s watched him play the past 7 years.
lol that was funny Gregg … and yes he can’t be replaced, once he’s gone we will be talking about it for a long time unfortunately … and whichever team gets him will truly appreciate him (e.g. his team-mates (who he keeps smiling, loose and laughing), his new fans and his owners). he’s an unusual athlete, that brings extra things to the “plate” that other’s never can or do.
Hello folks,
‘Hojo’s Mojo’ only placed a snippet of the entire article. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/06/07/hartnett-don%E2%80%99t-expect-jose-reyes-to-remain-on-mets-beyond-july-31/
I mentioned that along with Tejada, Flores would be a candidate to replace Reyes in the long-term if he is traded. There is a split opinion on whether Flores has the ability and athleticism in the field to become a major league shortstop.
His body type is similar to A-Rod when he was in the minors and Alex Rodriguez turned out to be a Gold Glove-winning shortstop. Some guys are able to make that leap in becoming a steady shortstop who can cut it at the major league level and others have to switch positions.
It’s too early to say whether Flores can cut it at shortstop or will have to switch to the outfield. Some prospects figure out all aspects of the game simultaneously and for others it’s a struggle. I’m aware of Flores’ growing pains at the position but scouts seem to believe that once he gets at all together he will make a quick jump to the majors.
For those so are ready to label me as someone who is trying to stir things up or make a quick name for myself, I can assure you that I am not one of those people. I am sympathetic to the Mets’ fan base but I honestly feel that Reyes will command a contract in free agency that the Mets cannot afford. I understand this is difficult for some fans to take.
I’ve written plenty of positive things about the Mets: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/tag/sean-hartnett/ and am not someone who would take any joy in seeing Reyes traded. I understand what he means to Met fans and many of my close friends are desperate to see him stay in Queens.
Stick with me, check out my future articles and examine my body of work as a whole before you label me. If you have feedback positive or negative on this or future articles you can reach me via Twitter: http://twitter.com/HartyLFC.
Kind Regards,
Sean
Hey Sean, I enjoy your articles and actually like the fact that you give us something to think about, if god forbid Jose is traded or not re-signed … it would take time but I know that flores & tejeda would be a big part of the jose open scar healing…better yet tho would be if all three can play together some day
If Reyes is traded or is allowed to walk-that will be the 2nd biggest mistake in franchise history (the first being the Midnght Massacre trading Seaver to the Reds)…Reyes brings a spark to this club! Sign him for what he deserves! If you want to trade somebody-look at that raggedy starting rotation!
Amen and Amen
There’s only one Jose Reyes. No single player on the Mets roster nor in the Mets farm system can do the overall job at both SS and the plate. This stuff about Player X or Player Y replacing Jose in the lineup is fantasy. There’s a big dropoff trying to replace Jose.
you’re hatred for 21 year old kid Ruben Tejada knows no bounds. Give it up.
Oh by the way, you usually post Tejada’s stats when he’s slumping in AAA. Where is he now? And how’s he doing? Can you please update the fan base of his progress?
Grow up! You’ve learned NOTHING in all the years you’ve allegedly watched baseball. You should never be taken seriously under any circumstances
Saying a player is not as good as Jose Reyes is not a sign of hatred. The reality is Reyes is head and shoulders all but 2 other guys at his position, and neither of them are in the Mets organization.
Anyone who tries to tell us Ruben Tejada can replace Jose Reyes needs to learn a few things about baseball. Like, anything at all. Tejada is red hot right now, but his BABIP and ground ball % are insanely high, showing its mostly luck.
Can Tejada be a good everyday SS? Yes. It certainly appears he’s learned a few things since last year. I’m not betting on it, but it can happen. But, he’s no where near the player Reyes is and most likely never will be.
you don’t even know what the hell i’m talking about when i’m talking to that guy or where i’m coming from. You got it all wrong so stay out if it. parrot.
And on another note, I don’t want Reyes to go either but the Mets have went deep into the post season with infield combos of Santana/Backman/Teufel and Ordonez/ Alfonso and the big hitting was coming from somewhere else.
So YES they can with with a middle infield of Tejada and Turner if they continued to develop and the team gets constructed differently.
Again the parrot has NO CLUE what he’s talking about and butts into my business with another poster here
oh and you know where you can stick your BABIP (yes i know what it is)
I really don’t care to know what Rafael Santana’s or Wally Backman’s (as a right handed hitter) BABIPs were either because I don’t NEED to know such useless information.
The sum of those teams was greater than the individual parts
and don’t bother me with Rey Ordonez’s BABIP either. That’s about as relevant as Turk Wendell’s batting average.
bayonne,
what up bro, what is BABIP?? i swear to god these sabermetrics (i call them ppl who never play baseball) come up with some new crap about the game EVERYDAY!! is hard to keep up
BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in Play.
basically, whatever a batter hits that isn’t a home run. generally, for guys that aren’t line drive hitters, the elague average is about .300. Tejada at one point was at .400 and is still in the .350s.
For a ground ball hitter, thats a sign that he is lucky.
And a sign that in building a team you want it’s success to be greater than the sum of it’s individual parts.
People like the parrot here would not have guys like Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, Rey Ordonez, Rafael Santana, Duane Kuiper, Mark Belanger, Jerry Remy and all these other guys that helped their teams to the post season because of useless, irrelevant numbers that have no bearing on ANYTHING.
“BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in Play.
basically, whatever a batter hits that isn’t a home run. generally, for guys that aren’t line drive hitters”
Ah another one of those Saber stats that tries to make a singles and OB guy look as good as a HR hitter!
I’m pretty sure I made it clear that BABIP doesn’t include HR. At all. It’s for measuring luck. It is supplemental to BA and OBP.
Now batting average, that tries to tell us a slap singles hitter is better than a home run hitter.
it’s batting average on balls in play that are ruled hits and it doesn’t include HRs.
Don’t even bother it’s such a useless stat. You’ll NEVER need it
wow.. thanks bayonne.. saberheads.. gotta love them.. i am sure none of those ppl interested of ppl that likes that stuff have played baseball or if it did was any good at it..
Ya, David Cone and Ralph Kiner never played baseball
BABIP has more to do with skill than anything else. Some guys hit the ball harder than others, so when they put the ball in play it is more likely to fall in for a hit. Guys like Votto, Caberera, ect are going to have high BABIP’s because they hit the ball hard.
And guys who have low BABIP’s are usually bad hitters because they don’t hit the ball hard, and they make alot of outs. The guys who have the lowest BABIP’s are Uggla, Rios, Figgins, and Reynolds – what do they all have in common? They are all hitting under .200 and having awful seasons.
Bad hitters will have low BABIP’s because they are bad hitters, good hitters ae going to have high BABIP’s because they are good hitters.
“Some guys hit the ball harder than others, so when they put the ball in play it is more likely to fall in for a hit.”
That’s right, so now explain Tejada. How does a guy with so many grounders, bloops and bleders have such a high BABIP?
He’s playing good right now, so that explains his BABIP.
“Bad hitters will have low BABIP’s because they are bad hitters, good hitters ae going to have high BABIP’s because they are good hitters.”
You didn’t answer my question. You said guys who hit the ball hard have high BABIPs. That’s true. But have you watched the Mets recently? Tejada does not hit the ball hard regularly at all. So why is his BABIP so high?
Because he’s hitting almost .320 – Name me a .320 hitter that has a LOW BABIP ok?
It’s not only the big sluggers in the league that have high BABIP’s – I’m sure there some singels hitters like Ichrio(always a very high BABIP) and a guy like Jeter another one with a high BABIP.
and yes, good hitters who hit the ball really hard are almost ALWAYS going to have a high BABIP.
You’re using backwards logic. His batting average is not the reason for his BABIP. His BABIP is a component of his batting average. It’s not as simple as “hey, put your bat on the ball and you’ll hit .320″
Guys who consistently hit the ball hard will have high BABIPs. Guys who don’t will not. If you’re not hitting the ball hard consistently and still have a high BABIP and subsequently a high batting average, you will normalize. Although most people who don’t get the law of averages will call it a “slump.” Like how Frenchy went into a “slump” after his hot start last season. Or how he’s in a “slump” now.
It’s not a slump.
No you are the one using backward logic. If your a good hitter, you’ll get more hits, and you’ll have a high BABIP. If you’re a bad hitter, you will get less hits and have a low BABIP.
Tejada is hitting good, so he has a high BABIP.
Very simple to understand.
Alright, get back to me when Tejada hits his “slump.”
He won’t keep hitting like this because he’s not a .300 hitter at this point in his career – maybe a few years down the road he could hit .300 but not right now. He’s hitting good now but he won’t keep it up – I don’t need BABIP to tell me that.
I guess if dan uggla can go on a unlucky streak for two months and hit .170, maybe Tejada can go on a lucky streak for two months and hit .370.
Jason bay is also on a unlucky streak all season long when is he going to “normalize”? And Oliver Perez was on one for two years, he’s gonna “normalize” soon, because he wasn’t bad, just unlucky.
“He’s hitting good now but he won’t keep it up – I don’t need BABIP to tell me that.”
Of course not. You’ve got people who understand it to tell you.
“I guess if dan uggla can go on a unlucky streak for two months and hit .170, maybe Tejada can go on a lucky streak for two months and hit .370.”
Ya, provided neither of them made any drastic change or suffered a health issue.
“ason bay is also on a unlucky streak all season long when is he going to “normalize”? And Oliver Perez was on one for two years, he’s gonna “normalize” soon, because he wasn’t bad, just unlucky.”
No, Bay changed his swing. I already explained that and its actually been discussed here and other places at length.
Ollie was hurt and out of shape and had an inconsistent delivery. Did you forget all of that from last year?
But his BABIP is over .320!!! he was unlucky donal, the stats show it – He will normalize.
As I said before BABIP is all about skill. Good hitters will have a lot of hits and have a high BABIP because they have a lot of hits. and it’s the opposite for bad hitters – It’s very simple to understand.
The reason why you see hitters batting averages and BABIPS change is not because of “the law of average” that’s ridiculous. It’s because the difference between being average and being great at this level is so small – If the batters timing is off just a little bit it could make a HUGE differnce in their average. The batters swing could get a little long too, stuff like that can make a huge difference, it has nothing to do with luck.
all the batter has to do is ONE little thing different, and that can be the difference between having a great season and an average one – That’s why you see guys averages change from year to year, it’s not luck, it’s because the difference from being average and being great is so small, so small that if your just a little off it can make a HUGE difference in your numbers.
“Bad hitters will have low BABIP’s because they are bad hitters, good hitters ae going to have high BABIP’s because they are good hitters.”
Except no, not at all.
except for guys that hit a lot of line drives, the league average is about .300 BABIP. Good hitters, bad hitters, mediocre hitters etc etc. If you have a slap hitter who hits a lot of grounders and has a high BA and BABIP, he’s getting lucky. That’s going to even out eventually. In fact, a guy like Tejada will most likely have a career BABIP bellow league average.
If a guy is hitting well bellow his career and league average for BABIP and is also having a low BA, it usually means he’s unlucky.
No, it means he’s not playing as good as he used to.
Because he’s unlucky
not every time, but most of the time. You know like if it’s a big differnce, not if it’s like ten points or something.
No, 10 points is the standard deviation. If you’re a lifetime .300 BABIP and your current BABIP is .290, its not considered a big change. Your BA is considered accurate then.
If its a lot more than 10 points off, he’s unlucky.
Jason bay is a guy that regulary had high BABIP’s because he was a good hitter – Now with the Mets his BABIP is .270 – So are you going tell me that Jason Bay is just unlucky? Or does he suck right now and is not the same player that he was? I think that’s it.
Jason bay’s BABIP is lower now because he isn’t the same player he once was, it has nothing to do with luck.
Dan Uggla had a high BABIP too with the Marlins, now it’s .181 – Are you going to tell me that he’s just unlucky? Or is he just not the same player right now? Yep that’s it, his bat looked slow when I watched him, he’s obviously not the same guy that he was with the Marlins – Nothing to do with luck.
Oliver Perez had BABIP’s over .300 in 09 and 2010, and in 08 and 07 it was .270 – are you going to say that he was just UNLUCKY the past two years – no of course not, he lost his fastball, he was not unlucky, he was terrible.
Is Jason Bay the rule or the exception?
Yes, I’m going to maintain Uggla is unlucky until I see something like he changed his swing(which Bay did) or he has a physical problem.
Oliver Perez is the rule or the exception? Besides, Ollie had some physical issues. He was hurt and out of shape.
DONAL- Um, kids like Tejada are supposed to hit the ball on the ground. Fly balls create easy outs. Tejada might grow into a gap hitter one day, but he’s 21. Doubt that’s happening right now. Ground balls struck well find their way thru the infield. LMFAO @ BABIP. SMH @ meaningless stats.
Except he doesn’t hit the ball well. You’d know that if you watched the games. Bloopers and bleeders are lucky. When his BABIP is .350 with more than a 17% LD rate, we’ll talk about his ability. Now, we’ll talk about his defense and his luck.
nah, you just don’t like him and you’re angry that your sabermetric boy Emaus stunk because he’s not a major league hitter. Ruben Tejada is a major league HITTER now, and he does not need a full year of AAA as so many of you guys were saying all winter before ST ever started.
That’s what this is all about. His BABIP is as relevant as Ozzie Smith’s BABIP, or the BABIPs of Mark Belanger, Bud Harrelson, Duane Kuiper, Rey Ordonez, Ed Brinkman, Omar Vizquel, Jerry Remy, or right hand hitting Wally Backman.
It’s a USELESS stat and you’ll never need it. Tejada can be a middle infielder for a championship team some day and he’ll hit too. He’s intelligent, ALREADY a fantastic glovesman and is getting better as he comes more relaxed. I’ve said it before that he’d project to be a .270 or 280 hitter. Looks like I was wrong, he may even be BETTER than that.
And as usual if you want to build a championship team the sum of the parts is greater than the individual statistics.
No, ground balls create more outs than fly balls. Line drives are the best to hit because they fall in something like 70% of the time